Sorry to bother in the first place for being a newcomer, I see there's a main topic about Geno's chance and analysis, but I'm not sure if this post can fit in as long as it was an independent thread from other forum. If someone think this should be a reply comment to any existed thread, please inform me to contact theadmins
Here is a reminder: the following oberservation is neither in the viewpoint of positive support or negative hostility against Geno. It ony tries to make an objective theory, so please do not make biased assumptions about the post about liking or hating Geno the character.
And to be honest I haven't been keeping the Smash bros community for quite a time. If there is any missed vital information that is not mentioned in the post, please inform me below.
Personally, I'm a fan of Geno and have played Super Mario RPG. But when it comes to Smash bros, I think this is a different story.
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Smash bros may include "any" character as long as they have origin from Nintendo history (if not third party characters). But it would be weird to say
all Nintendo characters can definitely makes it in Smash bros. If we're here to claim that a certain character has 100% chance, that is impossible. Geno is potential but others are also as well.
It is more difficult when the franchise Geno comes from, Mario series, already got a big bunch of recurring characters to represent and many have made it into Smash bros.
When it comes to Geno's case, unfortunately he never makes a second formal appearance in the Mario games after his debut it Super Mario RPG. Most of the main characters from Mario universe, such as Diddy Kong, Wario, Daisy and KingKRool actually have been introduced before SMRPG came out. They kept receiving more chances after their debut game. But then, why Geno is still frequently requested despite this? The arguements usually are like these:
*Argument: Smash bros director Sakurai wants him
The reason why Geno begins to frequently appears in discussion is because of "Sakurai's favorite character" opinion in an early interview. Many Geno fans are glad to share his thought and began to heat the Geno fanbase in order to make him in Smash bros one day.
But here is a reiminder of the reality:
none of the Mario titled game after Smash bros 2 or 3 includes Geno because of Sakurai's request, and none of other Nintendo directors show great interest in Geno It's very realistic that his popularity only influences the fandom culture but it still doesn't reflect on the video games.
Ultimately Smash bros is a crossover game, not part of the original franchise of the character. Even if such character appears in Smash bros, it doesn't make him/her important in the original franchise. Because if it happens, Smash bros would have been the god of Nintendo company.
Here is an alternative assumption: we know that Sakurai is gonna retire soon after Smash 5. So I just say,
what if the new directer of Smash 6 has no will to include Geno? Would that make Geno's chance from 100% to 0%? This is why we cannot always rely on Sakurai's opinion. It is only meaningful when Nintendo and the Mario main directors all agree this, so that they could volunteer to give Geno chances in the first place.
Here is another thought about being in Smash bros:
is it easier to go to Smash bros than being in regular titles? Taking Mario Kart titles for example, it has included more than thirty Mario characters in the general game lineup, while there are at most eleven characters from Mario universe that goes to Smash bros. Yes, it is definitely easier to go into Mario Kart or other Mario games than Smash bros. So for Geno, while arguing why he is not in Smash bros yet, I think his lack of presence in Mario games needs to be quetioned much more.
*Argument: Geno can be in Smash bros because his owner Square Enix also participates in that game
I know fans also keep saying that Square Enix's right owner is the reason why Geno cannot appear in more Mario games. So Geno can appear in Smash bros because they're in.
Uhm.... I'm shocked by this theory, well, go check the Mario game history,
SquareEnix already did more Mario games, Fortune Street and Sport Mix for Wii and DS. This would have served chances for Geno and Mallow to appear as playable characters if that is what we're asknig for. If they don't appear, that only says the companies didn't really try to push it in the first place.
*Argument: Geno has a Mii costume in Smash 4
This is kinda easier, I mean,..... Ashley, Toad and others has costumes as well. Why specifically only Geno is likely for a future fighter addition in this case?
*Argument: Geno would have been in the Mario main cast if not because of SE copyright issue
Well,
who knows? I hate to say it, but actually Geno's chance of becoming a Mario main character is still not that high. Based on the fact Nintendo still produces their original RPGs, Mario&Luigi series and also Paper Mario series, both introduce some key characters such as Goombario, Starlow, Fawful. But Nintendo didn't add any of these to the Mario main cast and make them playable in Mario Party or Mario Tennis.
On the other hand, we take a look at the current main Mario cast and we see that most of they mainly come from a Super Mario platformer game, with only Waluigi and Toadette come from a Mario RPG.
We haven't really see a Mario RPG character successfully join the Mario main cast, otherwise we would now argue why Nintendo choose someone else but not Geno.
This is actually a problem that Nintendo doesn't seriously see Mario RPG canon as important as Super Mario platformer history. They acknowledhe BowserJr and Rosalina's importance to the Mario franchise over the RPG characters, which is a clear fact.
*Argument: Geno has cool moves so he should be picked
While I cannot say other Mario characters like Lubba, Goomabrio or Plum might not have attractive moves that Geno does, still remember that moves are not the main factor for Smash roster consideration.
For example, Zelda Musou introduce most notable and popular Zelda franchise characters, each character has own specific style of fights. Most Fire Emblem party characters also have good fight moves. Similiar cases as Kirby's Star Allies and those dream friends, which include some popular choices for Smash bros as well.
In that case, they could all perform well in Smash bros as well, but we know not all of them can be chosen as Nintendo all stars. That is the same case when many Mario characters are potential good fighters so Nintendo is only doing the choices.
*Argument: Geno could be a Square Enix representive
My immediate reaction:
which game franchise of Square Enix does Geno represent? Yes, he belongs to Square Enix but that doesn't make him an important character to that company. Just being owned by SquareEnix, Eleven and Lightning can also be choices as well.
I do agree that Square Enix is the one really responsible for the whole Geno (also Mallow) issue. They obtain the characters right after SMRPG, but never make best use of them. They could jsut feature them in a FinalFantasy game, a Chocobo game or a cameo in KingdomHeartsIII, all of them could have happended and they did not in the end. Especially Square already knows Geno is a fanfavorite, sorry to be rude, it is
very stupid for Square to not immediatley make Geno-related game plans to milk money from Geno fans.
But just in the case of Smash bros, Geno is not in the same place with Slime, Chocobo, Cloud or Lara Croft. He still needs to obtain his own game series in order to be as famous as those icon characters.
Banjo would serve a proper example here. He seems to be similiar with Geno: he also comes from Ninteno Mario universe (the game Diddy Kong Racing), he was obtained by Microsoft and released a series of his own featured games. Banjo is requsets to be starred in Smash bros, not because his origin in Mario universe, but he is a protagoinst of his own adventure
In Square Enix's viewpoint, Smash bros is a chance for them to promote their original characters. They would sure tend to include Cloud, Slime or Chocobo that can properly represent their ongoing franchises. Putting Geno only to please his fanbse would help nothing in their own advertising or rasing the game sales.
Oh here is an add-on:
if Geno really represents Square Enix franchises, that would say he has to cut down all his origin from SMRPG just like Banjo cut his origin from Mario universe as well. So that we cannot mention the SMRPG references in future games if Geno really does that.
My conclusion is, most of the arguments lack the very important common sense: Geno is wanted simply because he is very popular, not because he has done anything important for Nintendo or he is an icon character to the video game history.
Still remember, Smash bros is important as Nintendo's history book (introducing all Nintendo franchises and retro games) and also a living advertising board that promotes all recent video game titles. It would be obscure to include a character that doesn't appear in any of the recent game of the franchise s/he originates from.
If you say "we just want Geno to Smash and those things are not important", I would question you "why?", more precisely,
"Why don't you want to see Geno in more video games than Super Mario RPG?" I know Super Mario RPG is good, but really, you're happy that Geno is merely an exclusive character to that game, he could have been in much more Mario RPGs or Mario Kart and Tennis games and he never did, is that a thing that we can be proud of? No, it should not. I understand that not all Smash bros are fans of Mario games (specifically mean out of SMRPG), but if Geno's fans are not part of the Mario series games consumers, there's really no way NIntendo would listen to Geno fans if they don't believe that "Geno's return can boost Mario games sales". Nintendo would feel like Geno fans only care about Smash bros the game, but not Mario games not Geno the character itself. I definitely think it is not a good thing to be misunderstood.
In a softer tone, I just want to say, love for a character is a nice thing. I am actually glad Sakurai mentions Geno, because Nintendo has been keeping an low eye on Mario RPG characters and they are always treated badly. If a Mario RPG character can shine, things could also change the whole way Nintendo used to work. Not just Geno, but all other Mario RPG characters deserve better treats in the Mario games as well.
But ultimately we should do things in the right way if we really want to support that character. We cannot just stand here and says "he has the chance". Well, he has, but not a chance bigger than 5% tbh. What if we can do someting to make his chance grow from 5% to 100%? Wouldn't that be a wonderful thing?
My opinion is, I hope Geno fans can try to understand the following things.
1) Not just Smash bros, go support Geno to be in any Mario game that allows him to star, like Super Mario Party, Mario Kart 10 or mobile games. Cause as said, Nintendo want us to be supportive in all Mario/Nintendo games, not just Geno for Smash only.
2) Ask Square Enix to do something with him. If they don't volunteerly try to help with the Geno case, Geno will never ever really shine. Only when there's a Square Enix game that features Geno could he opens a new page in the video game history.
3) Don't just keep asking Sakurai and thinks he can do anything. He can NOT. He is only in charge of Smash bros but he cannot deal with the copyright or game role things. I think Hashimoto, Miyamoto or Takemoto, these people are much more powerful as Geno's copyright owners or Mario game creators. They could help Geno out much efficiently in his case.