Hmm... Interesting. Void Reflector might help in this matchup now that I think about it. Does it work against Explosive Balloon Trip?
None of Villager's projectiles are energy-based, so Reflector and Reflector Void are more like personal preference since they'll still reflect Villager's physical projectiles. If you want to kill and juggle, go with Void, but the question would be how do you get a campy Villager in a position to juggle and kill like that. Default is safer because of its speed, but with amount of projectiles going to be thrown out and most of them won't kill early, it's better to avoid and shield them. Still, because of the massive amounts of projectiles, default would be safer for poking since it's faster.
I don't know if it'll do anything to the balloons other than destroy them. Probably better to time a ledge trumping, Down Smash, or Explosive Blaster than try to use a Reflector to pop the balloons or negate the explosion. Still, a disjoint like that means if Falco can precisely hit just the balloons, he could gimp Villager, but if he fails, he won't be near the explosions.
It really depends on Larry. He is known for not knowing the matchup but progresses improve as the match goes down. If semi finals Bo3 then we won't see Falco unless he loses badly to CaptAwesum. If it is Bo5, I can see him switching to Falco eventually. Or we can hope so.
I can think of a strategy Larry could do. Use Luigi or Sheik to feel the first match out. Fox and Falco are the trump cards with Falco probably being the last resort. The main issue is like I said, I don't think there are any prominent Villagers in CA.
Going ham with Fox works, but CaptAwesum could figure out Larry's Fox or any character really. Testing with Fox, Falco, Sheik, and Luigi let's him try stuff and figure CaptAwesum out, but he needs to do it in a way that doesn't tip him off. If CaptAwesum figures out what Larry's doing, he should immediately change things to mess with Larry. Hell, he could figure it out immediately, use a secondary, beat Larry or figure Larry out, and then switch to Villager and wreck Larry.
Edit: Forgot about this: if Falco can catch Villager with a jab, he might be able to do this:
https://youtu.be/K1gk1M4ubnk.