Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[SneakyLink]

I know this is the Mega Man series but which sub series is it?

きょうは続きますが…
2001年のきょう『バトルネットワーク ロックマンエグゼ』発売!!
ゲームボーイアドバンスの同時発売タイトル。共に20周年おめでとう!!#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/RqQVuIPDHg

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) March 21, 2021

Anyways, there were four POTDs from last night. Must be a record.

 

[Perkilator]

I know this is the Mega Man series but which sub series is it?

きょうは続きますが…
2001年のきょう『バトルネットワーク ロックマンエグゼ』発売!!
ゲームボーイアドバンスの同時発売タイトル。共に20周年おめでとう!!#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/RqQVuIPDHg

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) March 21, 2021

Battle Network.

 

[Staarih]

I know this is the Mega Man series but which sub series is it?

Mega Man Battle Network if the release date is anything to go by haha.

Ninja'd.

 

[Ivander]

I'd throw Lyon in there due to having a decent amount of popularity, but otherwise I agree for the most part.

The reason I didn't throw in Lyon is unless they've played Ephraim's route, he's more the tragic character who got possessed by evil, sorta like Hardin(except Hardin got corrupted whereas Lyon got possessed, like Robin and Grima). There's a reason he was the winner in the "Villain you just can't hate" category for Feh's Voting Jubilee and that's mostly because not alot see him as an actual villain compared to Fomortiis.

Actually, I'm pretty sure the male Grima is more popular, on account of Female Grima being... kinda bad.

Well they're both bad, but you get my point.

To be fair, Male Grima was good at his launch(and he still decently is if you have him invested), but then powercreep. But at the time when he first came out, lots of people liked his inclusion and he was definitely one of the tougher characters to beat unless you had a dragonslayer(which nowadays, there are so many) or a good Sword unit(which once again, there's so many good ones now).
Female Grima required having high merges to be good, so if you didn't have her merged, yeah she wasn't exactly a good unit. Here's hoping she gets something good for Legendary Hero Remix like Ike and Fjorm.

But yeah, while Fire Emblem Heroes has given some spotlight to a good amount of villain characters, none of them got as much attention compared to Black Knight or Grima, although Berkut had gotten quite a bit of attention as well. That doesn't mean villain inclusions aren't wanted by the community. Duma was the one who made Mythic Heroes actually look cool and people are still asking for Medeus and Anankos to be Mythics. And Fallen Berkut and Fallen Lyon were two of the most wanted Fallen characters. It's just that when it comes to the villains, none really made a memorable impact besides Black Knight until Three Houses came.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Have you played the games? Name the variances.
They make each Kong distinct from each other. I guarantee you if you see a rundown of each Kong's moves, sprites and animations you'd be find very little overlap. Dixie doesn't grab like Diddy, Dixie doesn't throw like Diddy, doesn't run, jump or attack like Diddy, so have you played the games? How much of your judgement came down to a glance at each character? The only overlap is the gumball popgun. A tweak to the Up B isn't sufficient.


Diddy, like the other Kongs is his own character. Never started out as Green DK, not as a palette swap, and didn't take a handful of games to become his own entity. He came out the gate as his own; the point of each Kong is to give a different gameplay style. Otherwise you have no reason to swap. You got more than movement speed out of a particular Kong; they attacked and interacted with the game in ways specific to them. He's best known as DK's partner yet still he stands alone just as easily. There's nothing stopping Dixie from getting the same treatment.


You're saying Transformation is too costly for the DLC cycle. Your solution to her being too resource intensive for one cycle is to save her for a new game, where there's greater resources. Then you say drop the Transformation altogether for the game that has more resources. "Let's save Dixie for the next game, since Transformation is too taxing. Let's make her an Echo for the next game if she's not fit for Transformation." There's no point in bringing up Transformation then, remember that you said it. That is a contradiction, and shifting goalposts. Whether she's meant to have it in the first place or Sakurai's trying to please players is irrelevant; the point of adding characters is usually to please players AND match Sakurai's vision.

Your next paragraphs say you doubt Echo is on the table for her, but if Transformation doesn't work then she'll be an Echo, which you don't think is feasible yet it's really easy to do. Even semi clone isn't an option, but somehow Chrom-Level is, despite you not thinking she'll be an Echo. This is contradictory. If Transformation doesn't work, and you've already built a moveset for her, then drop the Transformation and make her solo. You've already built the moveset, so why scrap it and go with Echo if you can just change the Down B at least?


So overall, you're saying you think she'll be transformation aka partner in this case, but if that doesn't work make her an Echo, since solo is unlikely. Basically, whatever moveset they come up with should be scrapped in favor of tweaking Diddy's if transformation doesn't happen. At that point they should use whatever they came up with for her and fill in the Transformation parts with something else, which is a Down B at the bare minimum. No point in throwing out an entire set because another character couldn't come with her. That's like scrapping Dixie AND Diddy in Brawl because Transformation didn't work.


Then you don't know how she plays. Her grab game is already something Diddy can't do with his tail. You need a Dixie who uses hair for attacks, grabs, movement and throws. This is more than a change in ground and air speed; her own sets of grabs and throws, her dash attack, her own taunts, run animation, jumps, something resembling DK's Up B or greater. That at the bare minimum is far more effort than Chrom; side by side the only difference he has with Roy is his Up B. But then again, you don't see Echo as likely but you're confident it's plan B if Transformation is an issue. If the Transformation/Partner aspect can't work, there's no point in scrapping everything and transferring a tweak of Diddy's moveset for a solo slot when the moveset can just be altered.

While I understand passionately saying Dixie can’t be an echo, we got Dark Samus as an echo this game. Outside of a similar body shape, Dark Samus has almost nothing similar to Samus moveset wise outside of the Final Smash in the games. And yet...they did it. Yes she moves differently, but she is an echo of samus despite the moveset not fitting perfectly.

Dixie could easily fall into the same category as an echo. Her body is similar enough to Diddys where you can port most of the stuff over. At most, you change her throws, dash attack, and up b. At worst, just the up b. It is easy to envision Dixie as an echo because she has such a similar body shape to Diddy, which we know can impact the selection of echos.


I understand not wanting one of your most wanted to be an echo with potentially less effort into them. I was happy with Chroms execution, but at the same time Dark Samus left me a little wanting for more. But Dixie being an echo is still a very reasonable possibility.


I could use this as a soapbox to say I do not think echos as DLC are happening or that I am not confident in Dixie, but I wanted to focus on the conversation of Dixie as an echo. Keep in mind I actually would be happy for more DK content and K Rool was in my most wanted for this game and 4.

 

[Otoad64]

I know this is the Mega Man series but which sub series is it?

きょうは続きますが…
2001年のきょう『バトルネットワーク ロックマンエグゼ』発売!!
ゲームボーイアドバンスの同時発売タイトル。共に20周年おめでとう!!#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/RqQVuIPDHg

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) March 21, 2021

Anyways, there were four POTDs from last night. Must be a record.

Mega Man Battle Network if the release date is anything to go by haha.

Ninja'd.

do you guys not have Google Translate or something?

 

[3BitSaurus]

You also have to take into account what Staarih said in his post above about evergreen titles getting a sales boost in general in your analysis.

I mean, yeah, but I doubt that would change too much, because evergreen titles selling more doesn't just affect holiday period.

Even if this is affecting just Sephiroth's part of the graph, I doubt he'd fall out of the top 2, so it doesn't really contradict my original point.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

While I understand passionately saying Dixie can’t be an echo, we got Dark Samus as an echo this game. Outside of a similar body shape, Dark Samus has almost nothing similar to Samus moveset wise outside of the Final Smash in the games. And yet...they did it. Yes she moves differently, but she is an echo of samus despite the moveset not fitting perfectly.

Dixie could easily fall into the same category as an echo. Her body is similar enough to Diddys where you can port most of the stuff over. At most, you change her throws, dash attack, and up b. At worst, just the up b. It is easy to envision Dixie as an echo because she has such a similar body shape to Diddy, which we know can impact the selection of echos.


I understand not wanting one of your most wanted to be an echo with potentially less effort into them. I was happy with Chroms execution, but at the same time Dark Samus left me a little wanting for more. But Dixie being an echo is still a very reasonable possibility.


I could use this as a soapbox to say I do not think echos as DLC are happening or that I am not confident in Dixie, but I wanted to focus on the conversation of Dixie as an echo. Keep in mind I actually would be happy for more DK content and K Rool was in my most wanted for this game and 4.

Dark Samus had to have so many favourable factors fall into place to even be an Echo Fighter considering her last major appearance was in 2009 and Ridley was by far the most requested Metroid character. Whilst Dixie can theoretically be an Chrom or Ken-style Echo Fighter, I think it’s more likely she just isn’t playable as there was no reason in theory she couldn’t have been a viable Echo in the base roster aside from Sakurai not being interested in the ideaof an Echo Dixie for one reason or another. The base roster of Ultimate would have been the perfect time for Echo Dixie.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I know this is the Mega Man series but which sub series is it?

Anyways, there were four POTDs from last night. Must be a record.

My favorite part is that it feels like it's the very old "on the table" stage from SSB64's intro. It's not that one, but it almost feels like it.

Though it helps that MegaMan Battle Network's actual battles look like Chessboards, so they're essentially a tabletop game. Silly thing, but I find weird connections that barely make sense. XD

 

[SKX31]

Meanwhile, Steve is literally from the best-selling game of all time (very popular in Japan, might I add) and his reveal broke Twitter... yet he appears to have moved sales the least. Why? One conclusion that can be drawn is that a good number of people who liked Minecraft and/or wanted Steve in Smash had, for the most part, already bought a Switch and a copy of Ultimate. Meaning there was already some overlap there.

So the logical conclusion is: the only way we're going to see another sales spike like that is if they add acharacter from a game that is not only big, but doesn't have a large overlap with Nintendo and Smash, yet its fanbase is willing enough to play ball by purchasing the console and a copy of Ultimate. So when you take that into consideration, there's just... not a lot of places Smash can really expand to.

Outside from outright getting a Sony rep, or a series associated with PC/mobile gaming, there's just not many characters left who can bring an entire new audience to Smash. We're actually closer to the peak than people seem to think.

I feel that this conclusion in particular is a bit complicated by how Nintendo's expansion plans shape up. Most of Nintendo's sales come from three regions: JP, NA and EU (or PAL if you wanna include ANZ into the equation). While Nintendo nowadays separates ANZ from EU, and LatAm has more or less become major enough for Nintendo to include that together with NA, it still leaves significant parts of the world that Nintendo still doesn't have the most solid grip over.

Really, what I'm trying to say is that there's a lot of places Nintendo could still go. First, based on Nintendo's own lifetime data:

• Japan has ca. 19 million Switches
• The Americas combined have 31 million Switches.
• The EU has 20, close to 21 million Switches.
• While Nintendo does not publish ANZ (Australia + New Zealand) numbers IIRC, I'd not be surprised if the numbers there are 2-3 million, a bit more as an educated guess. The two countries have a combined 30 million, so it's not out of the realm of possibility.
• Anyhow, "Other" regions account for 9 million Switches.

If these six regions in the spoiler had EU-level enthusiasm* for the Switch they'd have (based on the regions' populations):

Spoiler: Kinda long

* China: 46 million Switches. The closest real Chinese figure is an estimate by Zhuge's firm Niko Partners, which put total Switch sales there at 4 million and the most popular console. Consoles are still niché there, but hey. One of Nintendo's primary expansion targets. Nintendo for their part uses Asia (Japan excluded) for everything Asia outside Japan (including ANZ, mentioned above). Which is really wonky, but you do you I guess Ninty.

* India: 44 million Switches. In reality, the Switch struggles in India because of significant bureacratic hurdles and import prices that spiked to high heavens during the pandemic. Still, second most popular console at around 50K+. We're talking that small.

* Africa: 42 million Switches. In reality, African numbers are negligble due to Nintendo not selling the console directly outside of South Africa, and due to factors mentioned below.

* SEA (South East Asia): 21 million Switches. For real, SouthEast Asia is a relatively small-ish region for Nintendo, but one of the primary expansion targets. My guess would be something like 1 million or a couple million - it's small compared to its total population of 650 million people. Has a small but noticeable Smash scene scattered around the Philipines, Indonesia, Thailand etc. Quite a few SmashBoards members come from this region.

* Middle East: 12,2 million Switches. The real numbers for this region are hard to get, but Nintendo has paid some attention to this region with bundles. My guess would be something approaching at least a million, but I don't feel confident saying more than that. Also has a small and local-only - but noticeable Smash scene - mostly based in Saudi Arabia and Dubai.

* CIS: 7,7 million Switches. Nintendo of Russia's had it rather rough, with most of you have heard of. Especially with the boss over there. Still, does have a small but noticeable Nintendo fandom. My guess would be that the Switch has sold in the 6 figure range (under a million), partly because Russia is PC / PlayStation / mobile-dominated.

* South Korea: 1,7 million. Doesn't look like much, but it would still be roughly triple of the ca. 500K-600K that's being reported by the Korean Herald (June 2020). Closest to becoming a somewhat major factor, which is a relief for Nintendo: Nintendo of Korea almost collapsed due to the Wii U's failure.

Now, getting into these regions are the hard part. Furukawa noted that any expansion into China would be slow due to them having built up fanbases in the major regions over 30 years. The same would apply to the regions mentioned in the spoiler. Add to that that Nintendo shies away from some of these regions due to geopolitical instability, and partly since some regions like China and India have very difficult bueraucratic hurdles that limit opportunities to release consoles and games - at least without a local partner. It's the reason why Nintendo's historically struggled with officially releasing stuff in China (which is one main reason why Nintendo partnered with Tencent). And why the Switch is not much of a thing in India. Also, much less leisure money accross the board (except from some cases like South Korea) - Nintendo's consoles have always been leisure consoles bought for entertainment.

And Nintendo's known for not lowering the prices of their games because they percieve any lowering as an admission that the quality is lowered. Which doesn't make sense, but Nintendo gotta Nintendo I guess.

Contrast this with mobiles - mobile games are widely played on every single country on Earth nowadays partly because mobiles have utility and anyone can get a middle-of-the-road phone without having to pay for too much. Including in poorer countries. And partly because mobile games are usually designed to be really easy to get into. Computer games are not far behind because again, computers have utility, anyone can get access to a decent one (whether by Internet cafés or straight up getting one) and F2P games are - as much as I dislike the traps usually laid down by these games - very easy to get into.

I still find it feasible that Nintendo could expand Smash by way of expanding the number of people who have Switches or Nintendo consoles period - but as noted above, doing that is easier said than done. Doesn't mean it's impossible, but it still puts a somewhat hard cap on how much Nintendo will be able to expand really.

Also worth noting that ca. 25 % of Switch owners have a copy of Ultimate, which I kinda feel is a nice medium between the ca. 43 % of Wii U owners who had 4, and the ca. 15 % of Wii owners that had Brawl.

*(EU + neighbors have ca. 455 million people. This is a simplified number, and I'm intentionally excluding countries like Russia and Turkey because Nintendo has not had much of a presence in those countries. They're grouped under CIS and Middle East respectively.)

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Granted we're all speculating in the dark anyway, but I don't think its that wild to suggest that with Smash Nintendo and potentially Sakurai just haven't had all that much strong incentive in putting various DK elements in the series post Brawl except for when strong fan support like K Rool's votes in the Fighter Ballot essentially made it difficult to ignore how much interest there really was. One could say that Dixie wasn't practical as a partner for Diddy in Brawl, the 3DS limitations for parterns made her unlikely for that role for 4, and there may not have been time (or a desire to change Diddy) circa Ultimate.

However, given this was the same team that Ridley work, it is hard to shake a sense that if they really wanted her in, they would have figured out a way by now, especially given that while certainly with depth she's hardly a Steve where her moveset and stages have to be deeply thought out in order to make her work.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Granted we're all speculating in the dark anyway, but I don't think its that wild to suggest that with Smash Nintendo and potentially Sakurai just haven't had all that much strong incentive in putting various DK elements in the series post Brawl except for when strong fan support like K Rool's votes in the Fighter Ballot essentially made it difficult to ignore how much interest there really was. One could say that Dixie wasn't practical as a partner for Diddy in Brawl, the 3DS limitations for parterns made her unlikely for that role for 4, and there may not have been time (or a desire to change Diddy) circa Ultimate.

However, given this was the same team that Ridley work, it is hard to shake a sense that if they really wanted her in, they would have figured out a way by now, especially given that while certainly with depth she's hardly a Steve where her moveset and stages have to be deeply thought out in order to make her work.

Meanwhile I guess we'll be stuck with doing this for the time being....

Costume by MAtgSy

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Costume by MAtgSy


That Double Trouble of Dixie's in DKC? Turns out it was her club and her bloodlust all along.

 

[SpecterFlower]

I feel that this conclusion in particular is a bit complicated by how Nintendo's expansion plans shape up. Most of Nintendo's sales come from three regions: JP, NA and EU (or PAL if you wanna include ANZ into the equation). While Nintendo nowadays separates ANZ from EU, and LatAm has more or less become major enough for Nintendo to include that together with NA, it still leaves significant parts of the world that Nintendo still doesn't have the most solid grip over.

Really, what I'm trying to say is that there's a lot of places Nintendo could still go. First, based on Nintendo's own lifetime data:

• Japan has ca. 19 million Switches
• The Americas combined have 31 million Switches.
• The EU has 20, close to 21 million Switches.
• While Nintendo does not publish ANZ (Australia + New Zealand) numbers IIRC, I'd not be surprised if the numbers there are 2-3 million, a bit more as an educated guess. The two countries have a combined 30 million, so it's not out of the realm of possibility.
• Anyhow, "Other" regions account for 9 million Switches.

If these six regions in the spoiler had EU-level enthusiasm* for the Switch they'd have (based on the regions' populations):

Spoiler: Kinda long

* China: 46 million Switches. The closest real Chinese figure is an estimate by Zhuge's firm Niko Partners, which put total Switch sales there at 4 million and the most popular console. Consoles are still niché there, but hey. One of Nintendo's primary expansion targets. Nintendo for their part uses Asia (Japan excluded) for everything Asia outside Japan (including ANZ, mentioned above). Which is really wonky, but you do you I guess Ninty.

* India: 44 million Switches. In reality, the Switch struggles in India because of significant bureacratic hurdles and import prices that spiked to high heavens during the pandemic. Still, second most popular console at around 50K+. We're talking that small.

* Africa: 42 million Switches. In reality, African numbers are negligble due to Nintendo not selling the console directly outside of South Africa, and due to factors mentioned below.

* SEA (South East Asia): 21 million Switches. For real, SouthEast Asia is a relatively small-ish region for Nintendo, but one of the primary expansion targets. My guess would be something like 1 million or a couple million - it's small compared to its total population of 650 million people. Has a small but noticeable Smash scene scattered around the Philipines, Indonesia, Thailand etc. Quite a few SmashBoards members come from this region.

* Middle East: 12,2 million Switches. The real numbers for this region are hard to get, but Nintendo has paid some attention to this region with bundles. My guess would be something approaching at least a million, but I don't feel confident saying more than that. Also has a small and local-only - but noticeable Smash scene - mostly based in Saudi Arabia and Dubai.

* CIS: 7,7 million Switches. Nintendo of Russia's had it rather rough, with most of you have heard of. Especially with the boss over there. Still, does have a small but noticeable Nintendo fandom. My guess would be that the Switch has sold in the 6 figure range (under a million), partly because Russia is PC / PlayStation / mobile-dominated.

* South Korea: 1,7 million. Doesn't look like much, but it would still be roughly triple of the ca. 500K-600K that's being reported by the Korean Herald (June 2020). Closest to becoming a somewhat major factor, which is a relief for Nintendo: Nintendo of Korea almost collapsed due to the Wii U's failure.

Now, getting into these regions are the hard part. Furukawa noted that any expansion into China would be slow due to them having built up fanbases in the major regions over 30 years. The same would apply to the regions mentioned in the spoiler. Add to that that Nintendo shies away from some of these regions due to geopolitical instability, and partly since some regions like China and India have very difficult bueraucratic hurdles that limit opportunities to release consoles and games - at least without a local partner. It's the reason why Nintendo's historically struggled with officially releasing stuff in China (which is one main reason why Nintendo partnered with Tencent). And why the Switch is not much of a thing in India. Also, much less leisure money accross the board (except from some cases like South Korea) - Nintendo's consoles have always been leisure consoles bought for entertainment.

And Nintendo's known for not lowering the prices of their games because they percieve any lowering as an admission that the quality is lowered. Which doesn't make sense, but Nintendo gotta Nintendo I guess.

Contrast this with mobiles - mobile games are widely played on every single country on Earth nowadays partly because mobiles have utility and anyone can get a middle-of-the-road phone without having to pay for too much. Including in poorer countries. And partly because mobile games are usually designed to be really easy to get into. Computer games are not far behind because again, computers have utility, anyone can get access to a decent one (whether by Internet cafés or straight up getting one) and F2P games are - as much as I dislike the traps usually laid down by these games - very easy to get into.

I still find it feasible that Nintendo could expand Smash by way of expanding the number of people who have Switches or Nintendo consoles period - but as noted above, doing that is easier said than done. Doesn't mean it's impossible, but it still puts a somewhat hard cap on how much Nintendo will be able to expand really.

Also worth noting that ca. 25 % of Switch owners have a copy of Ultimate, which I kinda feel is a nice medium between the ca. 43 % of Wii U owners who had 4, and the ca. 15 % of Wii owners that had Brawl.

*(EU + neighbors have ca. 455 million people. This is a simplified number, and I'm intentionally excluding countries like Russia and Turkey because Nintendo has not had much of a presence in those countries. They're grouped under CIS and Middle East respectively.)

Nintendo is basically leading the pack in east and southeast Asia, Korea, china and SEA are all some of their fastest growing regions as well. so they seem to be prioritizing growth there.

 

[BirthNote]

While I understand passionately saying Dixie can’t be an echo, we got Dark Samus as an echo this game. Outside of a similar body shape, Dark Samus has almost nothing similar to Samus moveset wise outside of the Final Smash in the games. And yet...they did it. Yes she moves differently, but she is an echo of samus despite the moveset not fitting perfectly.

Dixie could easily fall into the same category as an echo. Her body is similar enough to Diddys where you can port most of the stuff over. At most, you change her throws, dash attack, and up b. At worst, just the up b. It is easy to envision Dixie as an echo because she has such a similar body shape to Diddy, which we know can impact the selection of echos.


I understand not wanting one of your most wanted to be an echo with potentially less effort into them. I was happy with Chroms execution, but at the same time Dark Samus left me a little wanting for more. But Dixie being an echo is still a very reasonable possibility.


I could use this as a soapbox to say I do not think echos as DLC are happening or that I am not confident in Dixie, but I wanted to focus on the conversation of Dixie as an echo. Keep in mind I actually would be happy for more DK content and K Rool was in my most wanted for this game and 4.

I get where you're coming from. My goal is to put a spotlight on Dixie. If everyone sees her as an Echo and little else, it'll become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Bowser Jr and Isabelle faced the same outlook from the fandom; one got a set like none other despite people expecting a Squirtle/Bowser/Mario clone rolled into one, and the other got the semi clone treatment despite people expecting an Echo of Villager. May as well put her under a microscope and see how well the mindset holds up, as well as show what she can do as a potential fighter. She's a "Sure, why not?" in the Speculation Scene but very little thought or concern is put into why she can be Unique, whether transformation style or solo. Countering that is necessary.

But yeah, Dark Samus is an odd case. The best handwave I can concoct for her would boil down to "I.. guess since she's haunting one of Samus's suits she has access to that suit's features.." but that is weak. They both use Morph Ball, beams and missiles but it is a stretch, and unless she shows up in Prime 4 it's safe to say she's gone for good. Dixie's not in the same predicament, so it's harder to pinpoint what her fate will be. I mainly point to Bowser Jr, Wolf and Isabelle as characters that defy the easy echo mindset, since they were very easily written off.

Anyhow, the main mindset seems to be "Echo or why bother?" for Dixie, and that honestly robs her character of speculation if everyone believes she only has a shot in this very specific category. It's why I like the idea of Transformation/Partner mechanics or Unique; if we're all expecting the same thing out of her, there's less to say, and she gets quietly shuffled out of speculation. Why not explore different angles for a character that can do things the other Kongs can't, y'know?

 

[SKX31]

Meanwhile I guess we'll be stuck with doing this for the time being....

Costume by MAtgSy

That Double Trouble of Dixie's in DKC? Turns out it was her club and her bloodlust all along.

And here I thought that Danklin's Mii Swordfighter was one of the most cursed ones out there. And he managed to qualify for the Smash World Tour's Oceania Regional Finals (in June) yesterday with the... thing. Here's what it looks like:

(I didn't know that Deadpool was in Smash as a Mii Costume. )

Well, guess I'm off petitioning him to use that Dixie costume in the Regional Finals. In case he wins that and qualifies for the Global Finals. With a ****ing cursed Dixie Kong costume.

Nintendo is basically leading the pack in east and southeast Asia, Korea, china and SEA are all some of their fastest growing regions as well. so they seem to be prioritizing growth there.

While that's true, it will be some time until they'll become major factors I'd imagine. If anything, Nintendo would need to stabilize their presence first before one can confidently say they're major regions.

 

[3BitSaurus]

I feel that this conclusion in particular is a bit complicated by how Nintendo's expansion plans shape up. Most of Nintendo's sales come from three regions: JP, NA and EU (or PAL if you wanna include ANZ into the equation). While Nintendo nowadays separates ANZ from EU, and LatAm has more or less become major enough for Nintendo to include that together with NA, it still leaves significant parts of the world that Nintendo still doesn't have the most solid grip over.

Really, what I'm trying to say is that there's a lot of places Nintendo could still go. First, based on Nintendo's own lifetime data:

• Japan has ca. 19 million Switches
• The Americas combined have 31 million Switches.
• The EU has 20, close to 21 million Switches.
• While Nintendo does not publish ANZ (Australia + New Zealand) numbers IIRC, I'd not be surprised if the numbers there are 2-3 million, a bit more as an educated guess. The two countries have a combined 30 million, so it's not out of the realm of possibility.
• Anyhow, "Other" regions account for 9 million Switches.

If these six regions in the spoiler had EU-level enthusiasm* for the Switch they'd have (based on the regions' populations):

Spoiler: Kinda long

* China: 46 million Switches. The closest real Chinese figure is an estimate by Zhuge's firm Niko Partners, which put total Switch sales there at 4 million and the most popular console. Consoles are still niché there, but hey. One of Nintendo's primary expansion targets. Nintendo for their part uses Asia (Japan excluded) for everything Asia outside Japan (including ANZ, mentioned above). Which is really wonky, but you do you I guess Ninty.

* India: 44 million Switches. In reality, the Switch struggles in India because of significant bureacratic hurdles and import prices that spiked to high heavens during the pandemic. Still, second most popular console at around 50K+. We're talking that small.

* Africa: 42 million Switches. In reality, African numbers are negligble due to Nintendo not selling the console directly outside of South Africa, and due to factors mentioned below.

* SEA (South East Asia): 21 million Switches. For real, SouthEast Asia is a relatively small-ish region for Nintendo, but one of the primary expansion targets. My guess would be something like 1 million or a couple million - it's small compared to its total population of 650 million people. Has a small but noticeable Smash scene scattered around the Philipines, Indonesia, Thailand etc. Quite a few SmashBoards members come from this region.

* Middle East: 12,2 million Switches. The real numbers for this region are hard to get, but Nintendo has paid some attention to this region with bundles. My guess would be something approaching at least a million, but I don't feel confident saying more than that. Also has a small and local-only - but noticeable Smash scene - mostly based in Saudi Arabia and Dubai.

* CIS: 7,7 million Switches. Nintendo of Russia's had it rather rough, with most of you have heard of. Especially with the boss over there. Still, does have a small but noticeable Nintendo fandom. My guess would be that the Switch has sold in the 6 figure range (under a million), partly because Russia is PC / PlayStation / mobile-dominated.

* South Korea: 1,7 million. Doesn't look like much, but it would still be roughly triple of the ca. 500K-600K that's being reported by the Korean Herald (June 2020). Closest to becoming a somewhat major factor, which is a relief for Nintendo: Nintendo of Korea almost collapsed due to the Wii U's failure.

Now, getting into these regions are the hard part. Furukawa noted that any expansion into China would be slow due to them having built up fanbases in the major regions over 30 years. The same would apply to the regions mentioned in the spoiler. Add to that that Nintendo shies away from some of these regions due to geopolitical instability, and partly since some regions like China and India have very difficult bueraucratic hurdles that limit opportunities to release consoles and games - at least without a local partner. It's the reason why Nintendo's historically struggled with officially releasing stuff in China (which is one main reason why Nintendo partnered with Tencent). And why the Switch is not much of a thing in India. Also, much less leisure money accross the board (except from some cases like South Korea) - Nintendo's consoles have always been leisure consoles bought for entertainment.

And Nintendo's known for not lowering the prices of their games because they percieve any lowering as an admission that the quality is lowered. Which doesn't make sense, but Nintendo gotta Nintendo I guess.

Contrast this with mobiles - mobile games are widely played on every single country on Earth nowadays partly because mobiles have utility and anyone can get a middle-of-the-road phone without having to pay for too much. Including in poorer countries. And partly because mobile games are usually designed to be really easy to get into. Computer games are not far behind because again, computers have utility, anyone can get access to a decent one (whether by Internet cafés or straight up getting one) and F2P games are - as much as I dislike the traps usually laid down by these games - very easy to get into.

I still find it feasible that Nintendo could expand Smash by way of expanding the number of people who have Switches or Nintendo consoles period - but as noted above, doing that is easier said than done. Doesn't mean it's impossible, but it still puts a somewhat hard cap on how much Nintendo will be able to expand really.

Also worth noting that ca. 25 % of Switch owners have a copy of Ultimate, which I kinda feel is a nice medium between the ca. 43 % of Wii U owners who had 4, and the ca. 15 % of Wii owners that had Brawl.

*(EU + neighbors have ca. 455 million people. This is a simplified number, and I'm intentionally excluding countries like Russia and Turkey because Nintendo has not had much of a presence in those countries. They're grouped under CIS and Middle East respectively.)

I think you put it better than me, tbh.

To be perfectly clear here: I'm not saying overlap is a bad thing in any way. It's worth noting that the graph shows Hero and Banjo as being not far behind Joker. It's just that I've noticed a trend (since DLC began, might I add) of people thinking adding a big name to Smash automatically equals doubling the size of the install base. Which... isn't really how it works.

What I'm saying is: if Nintendo wanted to expand Smash to outside their install base, I doubt it would be through someone like, say, Jonesy, because the Fortnite fanbase already has a strong presence on the Switch and I'd wager most of these casual players probably have a copy of Smash. That's not going into the merit of Challenger Pack sales or whether a certain inclusion is good or not, my point is just about what characters would actually expand the Smash userbase beyond what it's already achieved.

Granted, there are places to go from here, but they're almost exclusively characters associated with other consoles and brands - or exclusive to them (Lara Croft, Master Chief, a Sony rep, a Valve rep, a Blizzard rep, etc). But that said, it's not like it's an easy choice because being big isn't enough - their fanbase would need to be willing to buy a Switch and Smash.

For example, Candy Crush is wildly popular, but considering the casual crowd - and by that I mean full casual casual, there's no guarantee there would be any return in trying to expand in that direction. Same for games like Free Fire, as you sometimes say.

Naturally, this kind of reasoning seems far from what's happened so far in roster selection, I'm just spitballing here.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

That could explain why outside the second Fighter's Pass has felt very much like getting around to characters they couldn't get in time or took a long period for development. Its entirely possible that Nintendo has largely determined they've reached as far as they realistically can with getting broader audiences and that (outside a Steve) the current DLC is first party focused and adding on to franchises they already have.

 

[Cahalan]

That could explain why outside the second Fighter's Pass has felt very much like getting around to characters they couldn't get in time or took a long period for development. Its entirely possible that Nintendo has largely determined they've reached as far as they realistically can with getting broader audiences and that (outside a Steve) the current DLC is first party focused and adding on to franchises they already have.

To be frank: Plant, Byleth, Min Min, and Pyra/Mythra would absolutely be base game content if Ultimate had more time or started planning a bit later to allow for those 4 to be base. I don't think Steve or Sephiroth could have realistically been base game content.

This may lead some down a rabbit hole to consider a small chance for a third fighters pass. Basically, if those 4 were base game, it'd only take 2 DLC passes of 6 fighters each to max out the CSS (this limit found by modders has yet to be patched unless I'm mistaken) and give Sakurai an out to take a break from Smash development. The two "bundles" of fighters match well with Smash 4's in this perfect scenario. To reach the same conclusion with how things actually went down, a third pass w/h 4 characters is needed.

If there is a third round of DLC and we hear about it by the last showcase of Volume 2, it will be short and definitely the end of DLC if it does not stop with Challenger Pack 11.

Going back to speculation about the last 2 characters with how much is known publically, the only other 1st party that had been considered is Decidueye when Sakurai was picking out the new Pokemon fighter. Unless there's another first party that's been glossed over, we may finally get a Pokemon DLC fighter that isn't a veteran from a past game.

 

[Arcanir]

The reason I didn't throw in Lyon is unless they've played Ephraim's route, he's more the tragic character who got possessed by evil, sorta like Hardin(except Hardin got corrupted whereas Lyon got possessed, like Robin and Grima). There's a reason he was the winner in the "Villain you just can't hate" category for Feh's Voting Jubilee and that's mostly because not alot see him as an actual villain compared to Fomortiis.

I'd debate that. For the most part I've seen a preference for Lyon's Ephraim route version in the fandom because of his willingness to fall into darkness. He knows what he's doing will ultimately lead to his destruction, but he's doing it because his country needs help to save it from disaster and his own insecurities prevent him from seeing himself as a leader worthy enough to do it on his own. Also, unlike Hardin who was manipulated, Lyon broke Grado's Sacred Stone under his own accord and despite knowing the dangers, so he willingly set the events of his own possession in motion. It's basically a deal with the devil situation, and while that gives him a sense of tragedy, being able to see the character fall due to what he desires and feels he can't have is what makes him more appealing as a villain to many.

Edit: Also, winning the "Villains you can't Hate" category doesn't mean people don't see him as a villain. Characters like Arvis also did well on that poll and there's no debate that he's a villain among the fandom.

 

[SpectreJordan]

Oh c'mon, it's not like the angry spirit of the leak is gonna rise from the grave and grab us if we speak its name, watch, I'll do it.


Cacomallow!
Cacomallow!
Cacom----



Cacamallow is real! can be heard in the distance

Plot twist: Cacomallow is real but Cacodemon comes with Fulgore & Mallow with 2B.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

I'm not sure if the Archer leak was shared here. It's probably fake (it's really similar to Mandycan leak). Basically a twitter user, Archer, said that the last two fighters are Dante and Arthur Morgan (from Red dead). If you look at his past tweet, he leaked Sephiroth, challenger pack 9 would be first party and Monster hunter would be a costume with challenger pack 9. He also said that a Dovahkiin mii costume is coming in the next wave (so with Dante probably according to him).

 

[Michael the Spikester]

As if Arthur Morgan is among the last two LMAO.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Kiddy Kong has an atrocious design. I hope he never gets in. I’d rather they figure out a way to have Cranky alongside Dixie.

Jon Cartwright from Nintendo Life is that you?

 

[True Blue Warrior]

To be frank: Plant, Byleth, Min Min, and Pyra/Mythra would absolutely be base game content if Ultimate had more time or started planning a bit later to allow for those 4 to be base. I don't think Steve or Sephiroth could have realistically been base game content.

XC2 and ARMS released in 2017 whereas the roster for Ultimate was finalised in December 2015. Even if the project plan started 6 more months later (and thus constitutes “a bit later”) Pythra and Min Min never had any chance of being a non-Echo newcomer in the base roster due to timing especially as they’d had to beat out three ballot choices (Ridley, Simon and King K. Rool), two modern Nintendo
stars (Inkling and Isabelle) and the guaranteed Pokemon slot reserved. Also, even if there was going to be a non-Echo FE in the base roster, it would have been Celica due to timing, so Byleth never had a chance of being in the base roster even if extra time was reserved.

Also, the only time a game was delayed or had extended development time was in Brawl and that was to put in Sonic, who isn’t only one of the most iconic characters in video game history but also the single most requested character for Brawl. None of these characters are big enough to be given the priviledge of development extension especially with the existence of DLC.

In other words, there is no chance Min Min, Pythra and Byleth had of ever being in the base roster no matter what. It’s obvious that the development of Smash sequels starts before the next console is released so those games can be released early in the lifespan to help those console sales as much as possible. Melee’s roster was finalised in 1999 with the Gamecube being released in 2001, Brawl in 2005 with the Wii being released in 2006 and Smash 4’s roster being finalised several months before the Wii U released.

 

[PeridotGX]

I just noticed that the past two characters have significantly impacted a piece of base game content: Sephiroth impacted a fighter (Cloud), and Pythra impacted a spirit (Rex).

Let's say this pattern continues. add a character who significantly impacts a base game stage and a character who impacts an assist.

 

[Cahalan]

XC2 and ARMS released in 2017 whereas the roster for Ultimate was finalised in December 2015. Even if the project plan started 6 more months later (and thus constitutes “a bit later”) Pythra and Min Min never had any chance of being a non-Echo newcomer in the base roster due to timing especially as they’d had to beat out three ballot choices (Ridley, Simon and King K. Rool), two modern Nintendo
stars (Inkling and Isabelle) and the guaranteed Pokemon slot reserved. Also, even if there was going to be a non-Echo FE in the base roster, it would have been Celica due to timing, so Byleth never had a chance of being in the base roster even if extra time was reserved.

Also, the only time a game was delayed or had extended development time was in Brawl and that was to put in Sonic, who isn’t only one of the most iconic characters in video game history but also the single most requested character for Brawl. None of these characters are big enough to be given the priviledge of development extension especially with the existence of DLC.

In other words, there is no chance Min Min, Pythra and Byleth had of ever being in the base roster no matter what.

You have a point there. I think Ultimate would had to have gotten a later release date to keep the Roster we got plus the 4 first party DLC fighters. Pirhana Plant would absolutely be the closest to be game implementation. Also, I still think Byleth would have made it in over Celica with all things considered. Timing isn't a necessarily huge factor sometimes, but has enough to sway Celica or Blyeth being chosen depending on timing of planning and pending release date for Ultimate in either circumstance.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I just noticed that the past two characters have significantly impacted a piece of base game content: Sephiroth impacted a fighter (Cloud), and Pythra impacted a spirit (Rex).

Let's say this pattern continues. add a character who significantly impacts a base game stage and a character who impacts an assist.

Well Alfonso from Spirit Tracks & Dr Wright from Sim City would be odd fighter choices to end the pass with but I wouldn't complain too much.

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

While I understand passionately saying Dixie can’t be an echo, we got Dark Samus as an echo this game. Outside of a similar body shape, Dark Samus has almost nothing similar to Samus moveset wise outside of the Final Smash in the games. And yet...they did it. Yes she moves differently, but she is an echo of samus despite the moveset not fitting perfectly.

To be fair the moveset doesn’t even fit regular Samus well.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

You have a point there. I think Ultimate would had to have gotten a later release date to keep the Roster we got plus the 4 first party DLC fighters. Pirhana Plant would absolutely be the closest to be game implementation. Also, I still think Byleth would have made it in over Celica with all things considered. Timing isn't a necessarily huge factor sometimes, but has enough to sway Celica or Blyeth being chosen depending on timing of planning and pending release date for Ultimate in either circumstance.

Considering that Sakurai admitted he might not have included Robin had Awakening been released a mere 6 months later and Three Houses’s original release date was in 2018, the development would have had to start really late for Byleth to have a chance. Pokemon is the only exception of getting a unique slot given to a character that is set to debut a year later and it is the highest grossing media franchise of all time. Timing only benefitted Celica.

 

[Perkilator]

I just noticed that the past two characters have significantly impacted a piece of base game content: Sephiroth impacted a fighter (Cloud), and Pythra impacted a spirit (Rex).

Let's say this pattern continues. add a character who significantly impacts a base game stage and a character who impacts an assist.

Stage: Dr. Eggman (impacts every Sonic stage)
Assist: Min Min (already impacted Spring Man )

 

[PeridotGX]

Stage: Dr. Eggman (impacts every Sonic stage)
Assist: Min Min (already impacted Spring Man )

ok, but i mean changes. cloud got a new final smash, and Rex got an upgraded form and a new battle.

 

[Otoad64]

I just noticed that the past two characters have significantly impacted a piece of base game content: Sephiroth impacted a fighter (Cloud), and Pythra impacted a spirit (Rex).

Let's say this pattern continues. add a character who significantly impacts a base game stage and a character who impacts an assist.

Stage: Captain Toad: Hint Toad replaces him on New Donk City
Assist: Shadow: the Shadow assist is changed to resemble a Shadow Android

 

[Guynamednelson]

ok, but i mean changes. cloud got a new final smash, and Rex got an upgraded form and a new battle.

Garet replaces the Isaac assist trophy, and uhh...we get a pokemon that was already a background cameo.

 

[chocolatejr9]

I just noticed that the past two characters have significantly impacted a piece of base game content: Sephiroth impacted a fighter (Cloud), and Pythra impacted a spirit (Rex).

Let's say this pattern continues. add a character who significantly impacts a base game stage and a character who impacts an assist.

Didn't Steve already affect stages?

 

[CureParfait]

I'm not sure if the Archer leak was shared here. It's probably fake (it's really similar to Mandycan leak). Basically a twitter user, Archer, said that the last two fighters are Dante and Arthur Morgan (from Red dead). If you look at his past tweet, he leaked Sephiroth, challenger pack 9 would be first party and Monster hunter would be a costume with challenger pack 9. He also said that a Dovahkiin mii costume is coming in the next wave (so with Dante probably according to him).

I think it might be a lucky coincidence since I don't think leakers could get a hold on fighters 10 and 11.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Red Dead’s character should be Red Harlow from Red Dead Revolver.

I don’t really care much but I played it as a kid so I think he’d be cool.

 

[Eldrake]

I think it might be a lucky coincidence since I don't think leakers could get a hold on fighters 10 and 11.

While I could believe someone knowing about No.10, no way anyone is gonna know No.11 at this point.

 

[3BitSaurus]

I'm not sure if the Archer leak was shared here. It's probably fake (it's really similar to Mandycan leak). Basically a twitter user, Archer, said that the last two fighters are Dante and Arthur Morgan (from Red dead). If you look at his past tweet, he leaked Sephiroth, challenger pack 9 would be first party and Monster hunter would be a costume with challenger pack 9. He also said that a Dovahkiin mii costume is coming in the next wave (so with Dante probably according to him).

Don't believe it for a second (it would be, what, the third fake leak that correctly guessed Sephiroth?), but I have to say I'd be okay if it was true just because Arthur would be such a bonkers ending, even if I have no connection to RDR. I don't think anyone expects a Rockstar rep, much less Arthur.

That said, I'd still scratch my head as to why they went with RDR and not GTA.

I just noticed that the past two characters have significantly impacted a piece of base game content: Sephiroth impacted a fighter (Cloud), and Pythra impacted a spirit (Rex).

Let's say this pattern continues. add a character who significantly impacts a base game stage and a character who impacts an assist.

Technically, Steve already impacted stages, but I'm assuming you mean stage cameos on a preexisting stage.

Uh... I'm going with Tails for stage cameo and Waluigi for AT.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Didn't Steve already affect stages?

True, Sakurai did go through the effort of editing 100+ stages since he's the embodiment of Japanese work culture and thus will never take a break no matter how much Westerners beg for it, but a cameo would only mean editing one stage.