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Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

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Swamp Sensei

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What I find notable is that... aside from maybe Sephiroth. DLC characters didn't seem to affect sales of the main game. They may boost sales a little bit, but the result isn't huge.

Even the twitter breaking Steve didn't really affect anything. Heck the weeks following his release were some of the lowest the game has seen. In fact, not counting Pyra and Mythra (not enough data yet) and Piranha Plant (coming off of release hype), Steve is the only newcomer that didn't have a brief increase of sales following his release.
 

7NATOR

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I wonder....

Was Sephiroth the reason sales peaked in December 2020, or was it more of a Holiday rush?

That said, I'm a bit shocked that Steve has the lowest.
Sephiroth definitely had some Large effect, considering the 2019 December sales number are not as High, and Usually the later years don't have as much sales as the earlier ones

Then again, there was no new character during the December period of 2019, but it's still something though

I'm surprised that Dragon Quest Hero isn't Super High to be honest. Maybe People bought the pass Already, but Banjo has Comparable numbers. Honestly though with how Legendary Dragon Quest is supposed to be, I Imagine there be people that might buy into Smash because they heard about Dragon Quest being in Smash, but I guess that's not the big case going on here

As for Minecraft, it might be an Audience thing on this one. Minecraft is a heavily fundamental different game from Smash in every Aspect. So maybe even if Minecraft is in Smash, people who Play Minecraft might not care, and continue playing Minecraft.
 

Shroob

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What I find notable is that... aside from maybe Sephiroth. DLC characters didn't seem to affect sales of the main game. They may boost sales a little bit, but the result isn't huge.

Even the twitter breaking Steve didn't really affect anything. Heck the weeks following his release were some of the lowest the game has seen. In fact, not counting Pyra and Mythra (not enough data yet) and Piranha Plant (coming off of release hype), Steve is the only newcomer that didn't have a brief increase of sales following his release.
I mean, truth be told, I don't think DLC sales are ever going to BE big sellers this late in the game. Sure, you may get a BIG spike like with Sephiroth, but the game's 2 years old, and even back with say, Joker, I'd argue that most people who'd be interested in the game, had more or less already gotten the game.


Sephiroth is definitely an anomaly, no doubt, but I'd also argue that he hits a different market than a lot of characters, namely, the Playstation market. With someone like say, Joker, he was announced the day the game came out, so his BIG spike was probably mixed in with release day sales.
 

True Blue Warrior

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What I find notable is that... aside from maybe Sephiroth. DLC characters didn't seem to affect sales of the main game. They may boost sales a little bit, but the result isn't huge.

Even the twitter breaking Steve didn't really affect anything. Heck the weeks following his release were some of the lowest the game has seen. In fact, not counting Pyra and Mythra (not enough data yet) and Piranha Plant (coming off of release hype), Steve is the only newcomer that didn't have a brief increase of sales following his release.
I mean the base roster already have the likes of :ultmario::ultdk::ultlink::ultpikachu::ultyoshi::ultsonic::ultryu::ultwario::ultluigi::ultbowser::ultpeach::ultpacman: :ultinkling: as selling point for the general audience in a 70+ character roster that would cover a lot of different audiences.
 

7NATOR

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Also I posted this on Papagenos Discord, and someone did make a good point

Steve might have contributed to the huge sales along with Sephiroth in December of 2020, so even if the week of his DLC Release were not high, perhaps alot of people waited till Holiday to get Smash that has Steve from Minecraft, along with Sephiroth as a huge bonus
 

dream1ng

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The Sephiroth peak seems to coincide with the peak from the year earlier between Terry and Byleth, though obviously it's much higher. That may be the effect of the holidays, which, if so, happens much later than in the west, where the peak is in November. But I don't know how you can look at that data and not attribute some of it to Sephiroth, frankly.

The theories as to how Steve is involved seem suspect and dubious though. He doesn't seem to have moved the needle at all really. But look earlier and see that Hero didn't even change things much more than Banjo did. Calls into question who shakes things up and by how much.

What I find notable is that... aside from maybe Sephiroth. DLC characters didn't seem to affect sales of the main game. They may boost sales a little bit, but the result isn't huge.

Even the twitter breaking Steve didn't really affect anything. Heck the weeks following his release were some of the lowest the game has seen. In fact, not counting Pyra and Mythra (not enough data yet) and Piranha Plant (coming off of release hype), Steve is the only newcomer that didn't have a brief increase of sales following his release.
It's misinformation that Steve broke twitter. Twitter went down shortly prior to Steve being revealed.
 
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True Blue Warrior

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Yeah I doubt it's as much Sephiroth as much as it is Christmas.

Might be underestimating the size of FF7 fanbase here but that to me seems a bit more likely an outcome.
Dragon Quest is as big if not bigger than FF7 in Japan and didn’t have any character already yet Hero didn’t lead to that great of a bump.
 
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osby

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As others said, people might have bought Hero's pack like crazy and it wouldn't create a significant bump in the sales if they already have Ultimate.

This graph is definitely something useful to keep in mind but it doesn't say anything concrete about how well characters did among people who already had Ultimate. Considering how most of the DLC fighters appealed to Switch owners in one way another, I wouldn't be surprised if their demographic already bought/were planning to buy Smash.

EDIT: Also, I think we talked about customer elasticity in the last two pages more than I did in my first-year ECON class. You gotta love silly platform fighter speculation.
 
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Swamp Sensei

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The ballot gave us Ridley, K. Rool, the Belmonts, Banjo and everyone coming back

I don't see what's with the stigma here, cause if ya ask me, literally nothing bad came from our last ballot's influence on the roster
The roster isn't what people are hesitant about.

It's the community.

While I'd love the results of another ballot... The community would sour a lot of the experience.
 

Speed Weed

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The roster isn't what people are hesitant about.

It's the community.

While I'd love the results of another ballot... The community would sour a lot of the experience.
94c (1).png

That's the one big thing I see against another ballot, and while it does make sense to an extent....

I dunno, something about it just doesn't sit right with me
 

SpecterFlower

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You know, 5 notable villains is actually a lot. More then what a lot of other franchises have.

I'm lowkey a Black Knight supporter by the way. He's not happening with all the FE roster bloat but I can dream.
this is how FF can win (next time)

honestly the FF villians are ussualy really g
Sephiroth definitely had some Large effect, considering the 2019 December sales number are not as High, and Usually the later years don't have as much sales as the earlier ones

Then again, there was no new character during the December period of 2019, but it's still something though

I'm surprised that Dragon Quest Hero isn't Super High to be honest. Maybe People bought the pass Already, but Banjo has Comparable numbers. Honestly though with how Legendary Dragon Quest is supposed to be, I Imagine there be people that might buy into Smash because they heard about Dragon Quest being in Smash, but I guess that's not the big case going on here

As for Minecraft, it might be an Audience thing on this one. Minecraft is a heavily fundamental different game from Smash in every Aspect. So maybe even if Minecraft is in Smash, people who Play Minecraft might not care, and continue playing Minecraft.
while Dragon Quest is huge, the average dragon quest fan also probably likes, Pokémon, final fantasy, Splatoon, Monster hunter and animal crossing (the five big franchises in japan and final fantasy)

it's likely they already got the game

however I do think that the DLC are part of why there are such long leg's, once the DLC dies down 5k is much more likely to be the norm than 10k

funnily enough Xenoblade 2 sales started to pick up after the announcement, so the mythical smash effect that almost never means anything is actually happening to xenoblade 2! that's a first i think for smash increasing the sales of a game (maybe DQXI did better in the wet because of it however that came out after hero so nothing reliable)
 

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What's to say? She's easy to make an Echo and pretty much plays like Diddy with a tiny bit of variance. So we're talking Chrom level, an easy Echo.
Have you played the games? Name the variances.
They make each Kong distinct from each other. I guarantee you if you see a rundown of each Kong's moves, sprites and animations you'd be find very little overlap. Dixie doesn't grab like Diddy, Dixie doesn't throw like Diddy, doesn't run, jump or attack like Diddy, so have you played the games? How much of your judgement came down to a glance at each character? The only overlap is the gumball popgun. A tweak to the Up B isn't sufficient.

And that happened actually very fast. Dixie took a very very long time to actually have a non-partner-based thing. She wasn't seen as notable to be alone in comparison. Diddy is also the Luigi of the games. Dixie isn't that same role, and got sidelined fast. They're not comparable situations at this point. She clearly was not treated as nearly important.
Diddy, like the other Kongs is his own character. Never started out as Green DK, not as a palette swap, and didn't take a handful of games to become his own entity. He came out the gate as his own; the point of each Kong is to give a different gameplay style. Otherwise you have no reason to swap. You got more than movement speed out of a particular Kong; they attacked and interacted with the game in ways specific to them. He's best known as DK's partner yet still he stands alone just as easily. There's nothing stopping Dixie from getting the same treatment.

It's not contradictory. Making her an Echo next game is easier than spending more resources on her. If it's between that and partner it'd be up to Sakurai which he values more; the mechanic she was meant to have in the first place, or just adding her for the players? Being her upgraded Spirit is still a partner one, the development team behind the Spirits at least sees Partner as relevant to her character. Does Sakurai still? I see no evidence to suggest otherwise. All we know is he wanted Dixie to be a partner character and she has yet to show up outside of Trophies/Spirits/Stickers... and eventually has an evolution into a partner-based spirit. Both combined isn't saying much, but it does look a bit suspicious.
You're saying Transformation is too costly for the DLC cycle. Your solution to her being too resource intensive for one cycle is to save her for a new game, where there's greater resources. Then you say drop the Transformation altogether for the game that has more resources. "Let's save Dixie for the next game, since Transformation is too taxing. Let's make her an Echo for the next game if she's not fit for Transformation." There's no point in bringing up Transformation then, remember that you said it. That is a contradiction, and shifting goalposts. Whether she's meant to have it in the first place or Sakurai's trying to please players is irrelevant; the point of adding characters is usually to please players AND match Sakurai's vision.

Your next paragraphs say you doubt Echo is on the table for her, but if Transformation doesn't work then she'll be an Echo, which you don't think is feasible yet it's really easy to do. Even semi clone isn't an option, but somehow Chrom-Level is, despite you not thinking she'll be an Echo. This is contradictory. If Transformation doesn't work, and you've already built a moveset for her, then drop the Transformation and make her solo. You've already built the moveset, so why scrap it and go with Echo if you can just change the Down B at least?

I still think she's most likely a partner character, and the fact she didn't get an Echo spot(which is what they would've had time to do in Ultimate for her, possibly in place of Daisy, honestly. Since Daisy was just a quick one. Though I could see both at this point) is saying something. It doesn't in any way suggest she'd have a chance as a solo semi-clone either. There's absolutely zero things to suggest it ever had a chance. It was either easy development or "choice we want to do". The middle one has no real evidence or logic towards it. "Semi-clone would be nice" isn't based upon logic here.

I'm unconvinced she ever had a remote chance as a semi-clone(alone. Maybe as a partner to Diddy), and I doubt she would've ever been an Echo either(but at least there's a slight chance for it, since she would've had some time to do during development. But if they didn't, that makes it even worse. That she's lower priority even when ease of creation).
So overall, you're saying you think she'll be transformation aka partner in this case, but if that doesn't work make her an Echo, since solo is unlikely. Basically, whatever moveset they come up with should be scrapped in favor of tweaking Diddy's if transformation doesn't happen. At that point they should use whatever they came up with for her and fill in the Transformation parts with something else, which is a Down B at the bare minimum. No point in throwing out an entire set because another character couldn't come with her. That's like scrapping Dixie AND Diddy in Brawl because Transformation didn't work.
If you're still trying to convince me she wouldn't be an Echo, you're barking up the wrong tree. The only legit reason I've seen is she couldn't actually use a restructuring of DK's Up B, but that isn't even true. Which means she's easy as a Chrom-style Echo without issues. The rest have been purely based upon "I wouldn't want this" which has no meaning in what can happen. I'm basing this upon actual development, statements, and how the game works. So I only really see Echo(not that likely) or Partner(most likely) as realistic with the information we currently have.
Then you don't know how she plays. Her grab game is already something Diddy can't do with his tail. You need a Dixie who uses hair for attacks, grabs, movement and throws. This is more than a change in ground and air speed; her own sets of grabs and throws, her dash attack, her own taunts, run animation, jumps, something resembling DK's Up B or greater. That at the bare minimum is far more effort than Chrom; side by side the only difference he has with Roy is his Up B. But then again, you don't see Echo as likely but you're confident it's plan B if Transformation is an issue. If the Transformation/Partner aspect can't work, there's no point in scrapping everything and transferring a tweak of Diddy's moveset for a solo slot when the moveset can just be altered.
 

7NATOR

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The roster isn't what people are hesitant about.

It's the community.

While I'd love the results of another ballot... The community would sour a lot of the experience.
I guess I don't have as much stake in being in the community as other people might

But I'd be down for Smash Speculation Warfare if it meant the end result is a good ballot that will have some good data for Nintendo to use for Newcomers. Casual players will give their thoughts to who they want to see, and that's something these Fan polls can't do.

It's important to realize that the Biggest Smash 4 Fan Poll I've ever saw (50,000, and that was because it combined results from Multiple Polls) couldn't compare to the 1.8 Million votes the Actual Ballot got, and I Imagine the same thing will be true with a Ballot for After Ultimate

even then, I think the Speculation community can learn not be engage in heavy character warfare if it's that big of a problem. We can moderate the type of discussions and potential arguments that will Come about. I have hope in the Smash community being able to keep discussions as nice and smooth as possible, but if it does come to it, well some sacrifices have to be made for the good of the future
 

RouffWestie

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I chuckled seeing that Battle Network photo Sakurai posted. Good on him for acknowledging it’s anniversary!

On the DLC and game sales discussion:
mean the base roster already have the likes of :ultmario::ultdk::ultlink::ultpikachu::ultyoshi::ultsonic::ultryu::ultwario::ultluigi::ultbowser::ultpeach::ultpacman: :ultinkling: as selling point for the general audience in a 70+ character roster that would cover a lot of different audiences.
This sums it up. Most people weren’t going to hold off on the entire game for a single character. the base game already pulled in most buyers.
 

3BitSaurus

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I don't know if this helps our speculations or not but I'll just post here because I find it interesting.

Weekly sales of Smash SP (Ultimate) reported by Famitsu since its release and the dropping points of each DLCs.
The x-axis shows the week counts and the y-axis shows the number of sales (x10k). I think 2018 sales reach over the 70k point so basically the chart starts from 2019.

So, taking it at face value, going by the sales of each DLC in their dropping points and the 2-3 weeks after:
  1. :ultsephiroth: (Even if we discount the same amount of holiday sales from the previous year, I think it would still be enough to put him first)
  2. :ultjoker: (Even though he was announced at launch, there's a significant increase in sales in the weeks after he dropped)
  3. :ulthero:/:ultbanjokazooie: (Hero's following weeks looks slightly bigger without the full numbers, but they're close enough that I'd call them a tie)
  4. :ultpyra: (Their second week is higher than Byleth's, so I'm willing to put them first, but it might be a tie depending on how things develop)
  5. :ultbyleth:
  6. :ult_terry:/:ultminmin
  7. :ultsteve:
I have some things I'd like to discuss regarding this, but first I'd like to know where this graph came from and if it accounts for global sales data or just Japan.
 

Staarih

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I have some things I'd like to discuss regarding this, but first I'd like to know where this graph came from and if it accounts for global sales data or just Japan.
Not sure who made the graph but the numbers are indeed taken from Famitsu who reports stats weekly for sold games in Japan. Here's last weeks, for example. They are Japan-only numbers.
 

3BitSaurus

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Not sure who made the graph but the numbers are indeed taken from Famitsu who reports stats weekly for sold games in Japan. Here's last weeks, for example. They are Japan-only numbers.
I see. That's less data to make a deduction out of. It would be better if we could have worldwide data or a separate sales graph for Challenger Packs. Still, it's a point in favor of something I've been saying for a while: bringing in a guest for a huge game isn't the end-all.

The two biggest spikes in DLC were for Sephiroth (even if you discount holiday sales based on the previous year, it's still the biggest rise) and Joker. Two characters who not only come from big franchises (the former) and are fresh on everyone's minds (both, but moreso the latter): they appeal to a fanbase that's normally disconnected from Nintendo and Smash.

Final Fantasy's mainline entries post-FFVII were Sony-exclusive for the longest time, until after Cloud's inclusion in Smash 4. As for Joker, his main games are still only available on Playstation to this day.

Meanwhile, Steve is literally from the best-selling game of all time (very popular in Japan, might I add) and his reveal broke Twitter... yet he appears to have moved sales the least. Why? One conclusion that can be drawn is that a good number of people who liked Minecraft and/or wanted Steve in Smash had, for the most part, already bought a Switch and a copy of Ultimate. Meaning there was already some overlap there.

So the logical conclusion is: the only way we're going to see another sales spike like that is if they add acharacter from a game that is not only big, but doesn't have a large overlap with Nintendo and Smash, yet its fanbase is willing enough to play ball by purchasing the console and a copy of Ultimate. So when you take that into consideration, there's just... not a lot of places Smash can really expand to.

Outside from outright getting a Sony rep, or a series associated with PC/mobile gaming, there's just not many characters left who can bring an entire new audience to Smash. We're actually closer to the peak than people seem to think.
 

True Blue Warrior

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So, taking it at face value, going by the sales of each DLC in their dropping points and the 2-3 weeks after:
  1. :ultsephiroth: (Even if we discount the same amount of holiday sales from the previous year, I think it would still be enough to put him first)
  2. :ultjoker: (Even though he was announced at launch, there's a significant increase in sales in the weeks after he dropped)
  3. :ulthero:/:ultbanjokazooie: (Hero's following weeks looks slightly bigger without the full numbers, but they're close enough that I'd call them a tie)
  4. :ultpyra: (Their second week is higher than Byleth's, so I'm willing to put them first, but it might be a tie depending on how things develop)
  5. :ultbyleth:
  6. :ult_terry:/:ultminmin
  7. :ultsteve:
I have some things I'd like to discuss regarding this, but first I'd like to know where this graph came from and if it accounts for global sales data or just Japan.
You forgot Piranha Plant.


So the logical conclusion is: the only way we're going to see another sales spike like that is if they add acharacter from a game that is not only big, but doesn't have a large overlap with Nintendo and Smash, yet its fanbase is willing enough to play ball by purchasing the console and a copy of Ultimate. So when you take that into consideration, there's just... not a lot of places Smash can really expand to.
But Sephiroth’s fanbase already have a huge overlap with Cloud’s and the latter is already in the base roster.
 
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Staarih

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It's worth noting that not only was Smash up from New Year 2020 -> 2021, every other Switch evergreen (MK8DX, Splatoon 2, Super Mario Party...) were up too. So while Sephiroth may have driven sales of Smash, just the mere fact that Switch games overall were (and are) selling more is also a factor.
 
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True Blue Warrior

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It's worth noting that not only Smash is up from New Year 2020 -> 2021, every other Switch evergreen (MK8DX, Splatoon 2, Super Mario Party...) were up too. So while Sephiroth may have driven sales of Smash, just the mere fact that Switch games overall were selling more is also a factor.
Animal Crossing New Horizon might not have sold as well in 2019 as it did in 2020. And considering Cloud already is in Smash to appeal to FF7 fans, I doubt Sephiroth significantly brought in a new audience for Smash.
 

3BitSaurus

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You forgot Piranha Plant.

But Sephiroth’s fanbase already have a huge overlap with Cloud’s and the latter is already in the base roster.
Plant kinda overlaps with the timing of Base Game Ultimate to the point where it's a bit hard to tell them apart. I left it out on purpose.

As for your second point, you have to remember that even if Cloud was in the base roster, Sephiroth still brought in a good amount of content from FFVII - which is still associated with Playstation and is back in the spotlight thanks to FFVIIR... which is Playstation exclusive.

Meaning there's probably a lot of people who are new to that game and are experiencing it for the first time now. And these people can only play it on another console.
 

True Blue Warrior

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Plant kinda overlaps with the timing of Base Game Ultimate to the point where it's a bit hard to tell them apart. I left it out on purpose.

As for your second point, you have to remember that even if Cloud was in the base roster, Sephiroth still brought in a good amount of content from FFVII - which is still associated with Playstation and is back in the spotlight thanks to FFVIIR... which is Playstation exclusive.

Meaning there's probably a lot of people who are new to that game and are experiencing it for the first time now. And these people can only play it on another console.
Wouldn’t those people still buy Ultimate anyways due to Cloud already being in? I really doubt a second FF7 character would bring in a new audience that hasn’t been tapped.
 
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True Blue Warrior

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I mean... not really? If they're going through FFVIIR now, and never played the original, they'd have no personal history with the franchise by the time Cloud was announced for the base game.
Cloud is still the main character of FF7R and thus there is still a character from said remake in Ultimate.
 

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Cloud is still the main character of FF7R and thus there is still a character from said remake in Ultimate.
Right, but Remake released in 2020. Way after base game Ultimate. So the point is that if anyone got interested in the series because of Remake, they'd have given more attention to it after they played it, and Sephiroth released later that same year, with a bunch of new FFVII content that wasn't in the base game.
 
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True Blue Warrior

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Right, but Remake released in 2020. Way after base game Ultimate. So the point is that if anyone got interested in the series because of Remake, they'd have given more attention to it after they played it, and Sephiroth released later that same year, with a bunch of new FFVII content that wasn't in the base game.
Thing is, this would imply those people would never have interest in buying Ultimate after finishing FF7R on their own and needed a second FF7 character as an incentive, which is where I’d disagree.
 

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Thing is, this would imply those people would never have interest in buying Ultimate after finishing FF7R on their own and needed a second FF7 character as an incentive, which is where I’d disagree.
They would, but getting a new character and more content from FFVII certainly doesn't hurt. It's more content from a game they like, so naturally it would boost sales even more.
 

True Blue Warrior

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They would, but getting a new character and more content from FFVII certainly doesn't hurt. It's more content from a game they like, so naturally it would boost sales even more.
I doubt the extra boost would make that much of a difference that we see on the graph in sales bump.
 

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I doubt the extra boost would make that much of a difference that we see on the graph in sales bump.
You kinda have to "remove" the usual holiday bump you see in other years. I used the part that lists the previous year's holiday period for that. You should end up with a spike a little bigger than Joker's.

Granted, it's not perfect math, because there's no way to fully account for what the actual holiday sales were, but it gives an idea of how big the actual boost was.
 

True Blue Warrior

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You kinda have to "remove" the usual holiday bump you see in other years. I used the part that lists the previous year's holiday period for that. You should end up with a spike a little bigger than Joker's.

Granted, it's not perfect math, because there's no way to fully account for what the actual holiday sales were, but it gives an idea of how big the actual boost was.
You also have to take into account what Staarih Staarih said in his post above about evergreen titles getting a sales boost in general in your analysis.
 
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