Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[Guynamednelson]

actual moves and animations

Yeah, but they only have a fraction of the moves a fighter has. People will pay attention to all of their new moves, since Sakurai will showcase them in their presentation.

 

[N3ON]

We do know he has said no to characters in the past because of moveset potential, though. Specifically it happened with Chrom.

It's not common, and everything you said about his abilities is true, but we know for a fact that he does think about moveset potential when choosing characters. It doesn't help us narrow much down, and it matters even less now that Nintendo has a heavier hand in the selection process. It's just a bit disingenuous to say it doesn't matter at all.

I didn't say it didn't matter at all, my point is there are more important factors, and moveset potential is auxiliary. The factors which lead to Chrom being prioritized first from Awakening before Sakurai opted to move to one of the other central characters. There is clearly a hierarchy in which moveset potential ranks lower than other factors for selection, as Sakurai is able to accommodate most options with a workable moveset.

I didn't say it was universal or immediate, just that it's not strong justification for disregarding or prioritizing most options.

 

[Perkilator]

Every time I hear about Epic Games I can't stop thinking about the Kingdom Hearts deal and the possibility of Xehanortnite

Nortfite

In all seriousness, I can't imagine Disney would allow Sora to use and be shot down by realistic firearms.

 

[ahemtoday]

Nortfite

In all seriousness, I can't imagine Disney would allow Sora to use and be shot down by realistic firearms.

You might have a point with "use", but I'm pretty sure KH2 had realistic guns in Port Royal. Albeit, only in the Japanese version...

A-ha. Clearly only Japan is getting Nortfite.

 

[Pillow]

Yeah, but they only have a fraction of the moves a fighter has. People will pay attention to all of their new moves, since Sakurai will showcase them in their presentation.

That's great. I didn't say that people wouldn't buy AT upgrades, as the characters themselves are plenty popular. I'm saying that their existence, however limited, is still old content for Smash Ultimate and I doubt Nintendo is interested in changing that. If there weren't tons of other character options available, then sure, but that's not the case here.

I understand there's probably some assist trophy you'd like to see playable, and I respect that. There's plenty of assists I wouldn't mind playing as either. But objectively the chances of that happening are very low based on the trends we've seen from DLC thus far, and general logical business sense.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I understand there's probably some assist trophy you'd like to see playable, and I respect that. There's plenty of assists I wouldn't mind playing as either. But objectively the chances of that happening are very low based on the trends we've seen from DLC thus far, and general logical business sense.

I still have faith based on the community's superb ability to accurately guess every single character in the two passes.

 

[Shroob]

I still have faith based on the community's superb ability to accurately guess every single character in the two passes.

I'm not saying it's impossible.

I just don't see it happening, with 2 spots left.


It could happen, but at the same time, I'm not gonna bank on it.


There's also the fact that soo far every 1st party character barring Plant has been a Switch title character and if we were to get another it'd most likely be Pokemon, but that's just tinfoil hat conspiracy on my end.

 

[7NATOR]

Believe whatever you like, but Sakurai has never stated this. Don't pass off baseless claims as fact.


If Sakurai really wanted to, I'm sure he could make the decision to promote an assist. I just don't really see him wanting to do that, and I'm sure Nintendo is more likely to believe that new content will sell better. So yeah, in my mind AT upgrades are not so much an "impossibility" so much as a "why though?" And I think it's strange you single out Shadow, Lyn, and Waluigi as I don't think these characters are particularly above any of the other assists. If anything, I think Zero has the best chance of the whole lot of being promoted, simply because he's both the clear 2nd character from Megaman, and he has his MMZ look to fall back to that is easily distinguishable from the existing AT.

I get your view point, I still got to counter argument some things

-"Why though", It's because Alot of the Assist characters are very popular. Waluigi is the biggest example as even Reggie acknowledged it and talked to Sakurai about it. Now whether they can get in over other characters that bring in new content is up to your inpertation, and what the result of the last 2 fighters are.

I will say that there's alot of factors at play though, like whether Nintendo could negotiate with the 3rd parties in time (if they are 3rd party), or other cases like how the Characters with new content compare with the Assists in Popularity, relevance, implementation of potential moveset, etc

-I singled out Waluigi, Lyn, and Shadow because they are veteran Assist trophies, and part of the thing I was saying is that it be weird if their Assists were taken out considering they are very popular characters, and would be downgrade in Role. Characters like Zero and Knuckles were new assists introduced into Ultimate, so it would not be weird if they were not Assists in the game

-I Like Zero, but I'm gonna have to disagree with him having the best chance. For one it's implied he wasn't chosen anyway since his Mii Costume did return in Pack 3 of FP1, and that was the pack when we found out Extra DLC was confirmed.

Even without that, Mario and Sonic are bigger franchises than Mega Man, and I'd say overall there have been more requests for Waluigi and Shadow than there were for Zero, though Zero is still popular request also though.

I will say an advantage is that Zero did have his own Sub-series of Games. Shadow did have his own game (that's really controversial), but Waluigi did not have his own game or franchise, or can't even get into Mainline game.

I will say Zero is more important to the Mega Man Franchise than maybe Shadow, and Especially Waluigi, but Waluigi and Shadow I would say are bigger characters overall, and Shadow himself is still really important to the franchise anyway

 

[PeridotGX]

Spoiler: a scenario that would never happen

Person: I really wanted Skull Kid... at least he's an AT.

Sakurai adds Skull Kid as DLC

Person: JESUS CHRIST SAKURAI WHAT THE **** WHY DID YOU WASTE A SLOT ON THIS CHARACTER I'M SO UPSET!

I can't see us getting an AT upgrade... but you really overestimate the number of people who would mind.

 

[KillerCage]

Had to google this Arby's thing and I am deceased at the fact they renamed Plague Knight to "Doctor Knight".

Why would they change Plague Knight's na-
Oh... that's kinda justified.


WAIT!

WHY INCLUDE HIM AT ALL THEN?!?

 

[TheCJBrine]

Moveset potential matters, but it's not the end-all be-all. Afterall, we got Captain Falcon.

I remember when people argued against Steve with "moveset potential." Don't ask me why they thought he didn't have any; I was confused, too.

That's great. I didn't say that people wouldn't buy AT upgrades, as the characters themselves are plenty popular. I'm saying that their existence, however limited, is still old content for Smash Ultimate and I doubt Nintendo is interested in changing that. If there weren't tons of other character options available, then sure, but that's not the case here.

I understand there's probably some assist trophy you'd like to see playable, and I respect that. There's plenty of assists I wouldn't mind playing as either. But objectively the chances of that happening are very low based on the trends we've seen from DLC thus far, and general logical business sense.

AT upgrade still fits business imo; you got a model and a few things to work off of already, and if the character has a lot of fans (i.e. Waluigi), boom, guaranteed profit and didn't have to spend much money if any besides paying the devs + still a lot of work but at least a bit was cut off.

Of course I guess a lot of 3rd-parties would pull in more people, but since they're doing 1st-parties still, it could probably happen imo though I guess it's unlikely anyway.

honestly aren't we just going in circles in speculation at this point; it feels like there's no point unless some leak comes along or big new info at least.

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

Why would they change Plague Knight's na-
Oh... that kinda justified.


WAIT!

WHY INCLUDE HIM AT ALL THEN?!?

Man just wants some mozzarella sticks. Let him have it.

 

[ZelDan]

the thing I find funny is that Plague Knight's fake name is the only one with quotation marks around it, kinda making it look suspicious.

honestly I feel like they should have just kept his name as "Plague Knight" and just have some disclaimer basically saying something to the effect of "hey, this character was made way before the pandemic. Shut up."

 

[Pillow]

Nortfite

In all seriousness, I can't imagine Disney would allow Sora to use and be shot down by realistic firearms.

Does Disney really care about Sora himself? I always figured he was only ever a contentious character because he appeared alongside characters Disney actually does care about.

I still have faith based on the community's superb ability to accurately guess every single character in the two passes.

It's much easier to guess what's not going to come than what is coming. I'm not confident in any particular character coming, but I am pretty confident in what isn't coming.

I get your view point, I still got to counter argument some things

-"Why though", It's because Alot of the Assist characters are very popular. Waluigi is the biggest example as even Reggie acknowledged it and talked to Sakurai about it. Now whether they can get in over other characters that bring in new content is up to your inpertation, and what the result of the last 2 fighters are.

I will say that there's alot of factors at play though, like whether Nintendo could negotiate with the 3rd parties in time (if they are 3rd party), or other cases like how the Characters with new content compare with the Assists in Popularity, relevance, implementation of potential moveset, etc

-I singled out Waluigi, Lyn, and Shadow because they are veteran Assist trophies, and part of the thing I was saying is that it be weird if their Assists were taken out considering they are very popular characters, and would be downgrade in Role. Characters like Zero and Knuckles were new assists introduced into Ultimate, so it would not be weird if they were not Assists in the game

-I Like Zero, but I'm gonna have to disagree with him having the best chance. For one it's implied he wasn't chosen anyway since his Mii Costume did return in Pack 3 of FP1, and that was the pack when we found out Extra DLC was confirmed.

Even without that, Mario and Sonic are bigger franchises than Mega Man, and I'd say overall there have been more requests for Waluigi and Shadow than there were for Zero, though Zero is still popular request also though.

I will say an advantage is that Zero did have his own Sub-series of Games. Shadow did have his own game (that's really controversial), but Waluigi did not have his own game or franchise, or can't even get into Mainline game.

I will say Zero is more important to the Mega Man Franchise than maybe Shadow, and Especially Waluigi, but Waluigi and Shadow I would say are bigger characters overall, and Shadow himself is still really important to the franchise anyway

I'll concede that a lot of them are important characters in their own right, but I personally don't think that's enough to effect their standing.

 

[SharkLord]

Something I'm wondering is the amiibo release cycle going forward. We had an extra-long gap for the second wave of FP1 Miis, which I think has something to do with Nintendo not wanting to reveal the FP2 characters too early. With that in mind, how do you think the amiibos are going to be released after this wave?

There's two ways I've thought of

1. Min Min, Steve, and Sephiroth announced with Pyra's presentation and released with CP10. Second half of FP2 are announced with CP11, either release simultaneously or come later
2. First half of FP2 announced with Pyra, followed by Pyra and Mythra amiibos announced with CP10 and released with CP11. The last two fighters are announced with CP11 and released later.

Of course, there's a lot of different schedules we could end up with. What are your amiibo release predictions?

 

[Shroob]

For the sake of argument, let's say CP10 is not an assist promotion, and they say nothing about a wave 3 of DLC in 10's presentation.


At that moment, what's the point of debating if ATs/Costumes deconfirm or not? If they do, well, I'd argue most people saw it coming. If they don't? Well, congrats, but that's all we're getting in this hypothetical scenario probably, soooo... congrats? You were right at the literal end of the road?


It's why I find this debate silly tbh.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Every time I hear about Epic Games I can't stop thinking about the Kingdom Hearts deal and the possibility of Xehanortnite

I'm not sure if the goal of Xehanortnite is to become the one true xehanort or to be the only one who doesn't become a xehanort.

Now that I'm thinking about it, is there a hack-and-slash or beatemup battle royale game? all the ones I know of are shooters, puzzle games, or basically Mario.

The worst thing about Xehanortnite isn't multiple Xehanorts killing each other. It's the fact that every single match of Xehanortnite would be canon. Even the ones played on the mobile version.

 

[TheCJBrine]

I don't get why people are offended by stuff such as "plague" or one of the more-recent SpongeBob episodes during a pandemic; if it's not directly about it or clearly making money off of it (in a sleazy way), who cares? It's kinda like those people who got mad at Matpat, even though he was giving good information about the virus and was spinning it in a way that's more-likely to stay in yours or a kid's mind instead of instantly being dumped out the ears. As long as they're not being insensitive towards people, like geez. No one cares about Dr. Mario or other entertainment media having little virus characters or monsters or whatever.

And really? Censoring "plague" in the name of a character who's clearly based on those old plague doctors?

 

[Shroob]

Something I'm wondering is the amiibo release cycle going forward. We had an extra-long gap for the second wave of FP1 Miis, which I think has something to do with Nintendo not wanting to reveal the FP2 characters too early. With that in mind, how do you think the amiibos are going to be released after this wave?

There's two ways I've thought of

1. Min Min, Steve, and Sephiroth announced with Pyra's presentation and released with CP10. Second half of FP2 are announced with CP11, either release simultaneously or come later
2. First half of FP2 announced with Pyra, followed by Pyra and Mythra amiibos announced with CP10 and released with CP11. The last two fighters are announced with CP11 and released later.

Of course, there's a lot of different schedules we could end up with. What are your amiibo release predictions?

That's actually interesting, because I really don't expect us to see CP11's amiibo in well, CP11's presentation.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Can we all go back to killing each other over when P/M will launch?

pulls out gun

They're comimg out same day and that's final!

 

[Clumsyzephyr]

For the sake of argument, let's say CP10 is not an assist promotion, and they say nothing about a wave 3 of DLC in 10's presentation.


At that moment, what's the point of debating if ATs/Costumes deconfirm or not? If they do, well, I'd argue most people saw it coming. If they don't? Well, congrats, but that's all we're getting in this hypothetical scenario probably, soooo... congrats? You were right at the literal end of the road?


It's why I find this debate silly tbh.

Not everyone wants to be right purely to win an argument, they probably want the content they're arguing about. So yes, if it's the upgrade they wanted, that is a win.

 

[Shroob]

You ever realize that some random person in China could just


Leak the last 2 fighters by posting their figure molds online?

 

[SharkLord]

That's actually interesting, because I really don't expect us to see CP11's amiibo in well, CP11's presentation.

Yeah, it'd be weird to just drop CP11's amiibo in their own presentation. Then again, it's not like there'd be any major opportunities to announce it, either. If Nintendo wants to make the most of the announcement, chances are they'd reveal them in a Sakurai Presents, where all eyes would be.

I'm kinda leaning towards Pyra and Mythra amiibos having their own wave, because I'm not sure if we'll get four amiibos in a single wave (Have we had that before? I'm not sure, actually). In that scenario, I'd imagine CP10 and CP11 amiibos would be revealed together, because it'd also be weird CP11's amiibo all on their own. As such, it'd either have to be revealed with CP11 or sometime after.

 

[ZelDan]

For the sake of argument, let's say CP10 is not an assist promotion, and they say nothing about a wave 3 of DLC in 10's presentation.


At that moment, what's the point of debating if ATs/Costumes deconfirm or not? If they do, well, I'd argue most people saw it coming. If they don't? Well, congrats, but that's all we're getting in this hypothetical scenario probably, soooo... congrats? You were right at the literal end of the road?


It's why I find this debate silly tbh.

Being right at the end of the road is still being right. I don't see why a later timing would make a win not a win...

That and many people that argue for AT promotions probably do have a character they want that is an AT. if the hypothetical AT promotion is the character they wanted to see promoted, then that is also still a big win for them.

 

[Pillow]

For the sake of argument, let's say CP10 is not an assist promotion, and they say nothing about a wave 3 of DLC in 10's presentation.


At that moment, what's the point of debating if ATs/Costumes deconfirm or not? If they do, well, I'd argue most people saw it coming. If they don't? Well, congrats, but that's all we're getting in this hypothetical scenario probably, soooo... congrats? You were right at the literal end of the road?


It's why I find this debate silly tbh.

I mean from that viewpoint there's not much point in speculating in general. Characters either get in, or they don't. Personally I really like being wrong about predicting characters, but the only truly unpredictable characters thus far for me have been Joker and Sephiroth (and Cloud from 4).

 

[Shroob]

Being right at the end of the road is still being right. I don't see why a later timing would make a win not a win...

That and many people that argue for AT promotions probably do have a character they want that is an AT. if the hypothetical AT promotion is the character they wanted to see promoted, then that is also still a big win for them.

For me it's simply

"Cool, you were right that ATs can be promoted. But we're getting one. See you next game in X years."


Like yeah, cool, assists don't deconfirm now, but it's hard to get excited when the idea won't be explored again until literal years down the line, ya know?

 

[Clumsyzephyr]

For me it's simply

"Cool, you were right that ATs can be promoted. But we're getting one. See you next game in X years."


Like yeah, cool, assists don't deconfirm now, but it's hard to get excited when the idea won't be explored again until literal years down the line, ya know?

Unless it was the character they wanted? Most the people supporting it aren't trying to prove a point they just want their character in. At that point it's not about exploring the idea.

 

[Shroob]

Unless it was the character they wanted? Most the people supporting it aren't trying to prove a point they just want their character in. At that point it's not about exploring the idea.

But at the same time, reading some of the above posts, it's obvious that the person in question is digging into the concept of "Fan rules" as their main sticking point, without giving an actual name that they're supporting.

I'm all for tearing down fan rules, sure, but there's a certain kind of bravado going around which lacks any real basis here.

 

[7NATOR]

Something I'm wondering is the amiibo release cycle going forward. We had an extra-long gap for the second wave of FP1 Miis, which I think has something to do with Nintendo not wanting to reveal the FP2 characters too early. With that in mind, how do you think the amiibos are going to be released after this wave?

There's two ways I've thought of

1. Min Min, Steve, and Sephiroth announced with Pyra's presentation and released with CP10. Second half of FP2 are announced with CP11, either release simultaneously or come later
2. First half of FP2 announced with Pyra, followed by Pyra and Mythra amiibos announced with CP10 and released with CP11. The last two fighters are announced with CP11 and released later.

Of course, there's a lot of different schedules we could end up with. What are your amiibo release predictions?

Back during Smash 4, I believe Cloud, Corrin, and Bayonetta Amiibo didn't come out until like a Year after all the DLC came out for Smash 4, it could be the same situation regarding that

Even if you want to spin it to mean something regearding a FP3 (not you in Particular), the problem with that is that the FP3 amiibo would be heavily delayed as well, and the cycle will continue going

I predict that we might start seeing FP2 Amiibo perhaps when CP10 and/or CP11 are announced. Though i could see it first happen with Pyra/Mythra.

For the sake of argument, let's say CP10 is not an assist promotion, and they say nothing about a wave 3 of DLC in 10's presentation.


At that moment, what's the point of debating if ATs/Costumes deconfirm or not? If they do, well, I'd argue most people saw it coming. If they don't? Well, congrats, but that's all we're getting in this hypothetical scenario probably, soooo... congrats? You were right at the literal end of the road?


It's why I find this debate silly tbh.

Because then for Future Smash games, the Assist Trophy Rule/Pattern would not have much merit anymore, So I can stop being called delusional for arguing for characters like Shadow in the future

Also I find the arguements fun because I live giving my side of the arguement and counter arguing because this debate is especially popular and such. Also It gives me reason to talk about Shadow because I like doing that because I want him in the game and I also think he will be in FP2 despite what like 98% of people would say to that

I don't get why people are offended by stuff such as "plague" or one of the more-recent SpongeBob episodes during a pandemic; if it's not directly about it or clearly making money off of it (in a sleazy way), who cares? It's kinda like those people who got mad at Matpat, even though he was giving good information about the virus and was spinning it in a way that's more-likely to stay in yours or a kid's mind instead of instantly being dumped out the ears. As long as they're not being insensitive towards people, like geez. No one cares about Dr. Mario or other entertainment media having little virus characters or monsters or whatever.

And really? Censoring "plague" in the name of a character who's clearly based on those old plague doctors?

I'm guessing because since people have been heavily affected by the Pandemic, or known people that have, Being reminded of it in certain ways, in certain mediums could turn people off. I think Cooperation's just want to make sure that People would get turned of, because if they do that could affect Potential sales, and for the people being offended, being reminded might not be good, especially if to them they seem not to be discussing it in the Upmost serious way, even if it's not being insensitive. It causes Mental, Emotional warfare on the mind and potentially body.



But I do agree with your sentiment though overall though

 

[Shroob]

Because then for Future Smash games, the Assist Trophy Rule/Pattern would not have much merit anymore, So I can stop being called delusional for arguing for characters like Shadow in the future

Also I find the arguements fun because I live giving my side of the arguement and counter arguing because this debate is especially popular and such. Also It gives me reason to talk about Shadow because I like doing that because I want him in the game and I also think he will be in FP2 despite what like 98% of people would say to that

I say this with zero malice behind my words, but Sakurai could say the DLC is done and over with and you'd still be trying to tie up conspiracy theories about how Shadow is going to happen.

Like, I honestly admire your fervor towards your character, but not even Min Min has the reach of some of your ideas.

 

[ZelDan]

For me it's simply

"Cool, you were right that ATs can be promoted. But we're getting one. See you next game in X years."


Like yeah, cool, assists don't deconfirm now, but it's hard to get excited when the idea won't be explored again until literal years down the line, ya know?

honestly, I really do not get this mindset

If there is someone thinking there will be or wanting there to be another Capcom rep in FP2, and another Capcom rep happens, even during CP11, then they were right and/or got what they want, meaning they won in the end. I take it you have no issues with that?

It's the same thing with an AT promotion really. or the idea of getting another first party rep, or the idea of getting an indie rep...etc etc etc

Not every argument has to be for the sake of the long-term or whatever.

 

[Clumsyzephyr]

But at the same time, reading some of the above posts, it's obvious that the person in question is digging into the concept of "Fan rules" as their main sticking point, without giving an actual name that they're supporting.

I'm all for tearing down fan rules, sure, but there's a certain kind of bravado going around which lacks any real basis here.

From what I've seen today, that's not exclusive to either side, and not representative of the fanbase as a whole.

 

[yeq]

do you guys see a sega rep in one of the next 2 fighters? just wanna know what you guys think.

 

[Will]

do you guys see a sega rep in one of the next 2 fighters? just wanna know what you guys think.

the best answer i can give you is a maybe

 

[7NATOR]

I say this with zero malice behind my words, but Sakurai could say the DLC is done and over with and you'd still be trying to tie up conspiracy theories about how Shadow is going to happen.

Like, I honestly admire your fervor towards your character, but not even Min Min has the reach of some of your ideas.

I majorly gave up on Shadow during FP1. there was a time after the November Direct where I did try to have a theory about Shadow (which is where Vase theory came from, which Actually also Implicated Sephiroth and Crash, so it was 1/3 right), but I stopped after that majorly

It was only after Extra DLC where I started my Shadow Support again, and after Min Min where I was really starting to get confident in him

I think people see me and Think I always think Shadow will get in, when that's not the case. When I say I predict Shadow, it's because I have some good reasons to believe so

You could read my Shadow essay that's in My Sig for some of the reasons, but Pretty much, the main reason I see Shadow not being Predicted is because

-Assist Trophy
-People only think he would be echo Fighter
-He wouldn't get in over Eggman, or Tails

There are Counter arguments to those 3 points, as I have listed in this thread and also the essay at times. In any case I acknowledge some of my theories have been crazy, but without that, I do think Shadow has an actual good shot to be in FP2

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I majorly gave up on Shadow during FP1. there was a time after the November Direct where I did try to have a theory about Shadow (which is where Vase theory came from, which Actually also Implicated Sephiroth and Crash, so it was 1/3 right)

It was only after Extra DLC where I started my Shadow Support, and after Min Min where I was really starting to get confident in him

I think people see me and Think I always think Shadow will get in, when that's not the case. When I say I predict Shadow, it's because I have some good reasons to believe so

You could read my Shadow essay that's in My Sig for some of the reasons, but Pretty much, the main reason I see Shadow not being Predicted is because

-Assist Trophy
-People only think he would be echo Fighter
-He wouldn't get in over Eggman, or Tails

There are Counter arguments to those 3 points, as I have listed in this thread and also the essay at times. In any case I acknowledge some of my theories have been crazy, but without that, I do think Shadow has an actual good shot to be in FP2

uh

vase theory???

this is the first i've heard of this

 

[Deleted member]

do you guys see a sega rep in one of the next 2 fighters? just wanna know what you guys think.

We’re getting two: Arle and Miku Eggman.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

do you guys see a sega rep in one of the next 2 fighters? just wanna know what you guys think.

There are certainly no shortage of excellent options.

 

[Shroob]

We’re getting two: Arle and Miku Eggman.

Miku would be

Unique


But my god getting music would be literal hell. Having to either get barely any music, or license out all her popular songs to every.single.person. that made one, and not even the fact that Llevan Polka isn't a user-created song.

 

[chocolatejr9]

do you guys see a sega rep in one of the next 2 fighters? just wanna know what you guys think.

I mean, it probably won't be Billy Hatcher, but I'd want Billy Hatcher.