Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[Mushroomguy12]

you know... i kind of want to play a game.

IF, and i repeat, IF pass 2 isn't the end and all these executable slots are filled, who would you like to see fill said slots? Assuming Mythra takes up a separate exe slot and the last 2 of this pass give us 16, I've decided to divvy them up into 4 passes of 4 each, the last one being an echoes one if you so wish. include your dream last 2 for this pass as well.

i need to do some thinking as after my absolute dream picks, i kinda run out of steam fast...

Pass 2

• Chun-Li
• Lloyd Irving

Pass 3

• Dixie Kong
• Impa (Age of Calamity)
• Sora
• Phoenix Wright

Pass 4

• Lara Croft
• Reimu
• Leon Kennedy
• Shantae

Pass 5

• Arle Nadja
• Isaac
• Krystal
• Shantae

Echo Pass

• Octoling (Inkling)
• Jill Valentine (Leon Kennedy)
• Ms. Pac-Man (Pac-Man)
• Jeanne (Bayonetta)

 

[AreJay25]

you know... i kind of want to play a game.

IF, and i repeat, IF pass 2 isn't the end and all these executable slots are filled, who would you like to see fill said slots? Assuming Mythra takes up a separate exe slot and the last 2 of this pass give us 16, I've decided to divvy them up into 4 passes of 4 each, the last one being an echoes one if you so wish. include your dream last 2 for this pass as well.

i need to do some thinking as after my absolute dream picks, i kinda run out of steam fast...

Rest of Pass 2:
-Sol Badguy
-Rayman

Pass 3: The "We Like To Hurt People With Pointy Objects" Pass
-Doom Slayer
-Bandana Dee
-Ryu Hayabusa
-Garchomp

Pass 4: The "What the actual hell did that character just do" pass
-Arle Nadja
-Dante
-Officer Howard
-Shantae

Pass 5: The "Two Cult Classics and Two Icons" Pass
-Eggman
-Neku Sakuraba
-Amaterasu
-Crash

Echo Pass:
-Metal Sonic
-Octoling
-Jeanne
-Dixie Kong (would rather have her as a fully unique character, but I kinda struggled here)

After typing this out, there were, like, 7 other choices that came to mind. Lots of characters would make me pretty happy so I guess I'm not too hard to please lol.

Spoiler

and yes, i would make the sadistic choice of having people wait until the very end for crash

 

[helloiamhere]

Who here remembers this trailer? They never released this version of the Brawl theme but I love it for some reason

 

[Ben Holt]

Who here remembers this trailer? They never released this version of the Brawl theme but I love it for some reason

I remember that damned no mouth Kirby.

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

you know... i kind of want to play a game.

IF, and i repeat, IF pass 2 isn't the end and all these executable slots are filled, who would you like to see fill said slots? Assuming Mythra takes up a separate exe slot and the last 2 of this pass give us 16, I've decided to divvy them up into 4 passes of 4 each, the last one being an echoes one if you so wish. include your dream last 2 for this pass as well.

i need to do some thinking as after my absolute dream picks, i kinda run out of steam fast...

Pass 2:
Dante
Chosen Undead

Pass 3: Bolstering Big First Parties
Bandana Waddle Dee
Tom Nook
Paper Mario
Ganon

Pass 4: Even Mix of 1st and Third parties
Phoenix Wright
Issac
Waluigi
Doomguy

Pass 5: Echos
Dixie Kong (Diddy)
Octolings (Inklings)
Shadow (Sonic)
Big Boss (Snake)

Pass 6: Villains
Nightmare
Porky
Dr. Robotnik
Pyramid Head

Where do I sign to get this?

 

[Will]

Man, I can't believe Post Malone is going to be our next Smash character.

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

I already did that believe it or not! Here's the colors. These are a bit more varied this time as I basically fine tuned my equation stuff.

Spoiler: All Potential Colors for Fighter 10 Using Math

I'm seeing some prime Dee colors in the far left, there.

I'm wondering who could use pink for their background color, though.

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

I'm wondering who could use pink for their background color, though.

I got your answer right here!

Spoiler

I’m just saying, you would never expect him.

 

[RealLuigisWearPink]

I'm seeing some prime Dee colors in the far left, there.

I'm wondering who could use pink for their background color, though.

PINK LUIGI JOINS THE BATTLE

 

[RaintheCriminalWhirlwind]

I just want 2B and/or Chun-Li as one of the last two. That's all. Or Tracer as a wildcard

 

[DevaAshera]

you know... i kind of want to play a game.

IF, and i repeat, IF pass 2 isn't the end and all these executable slots are filled, who would you like to see fill said slots? Assuming Mythra takes up a separate exe slot and the last 2 of this pass give us 16, I've decided to divvy them up into 4 passes of 4 each, the last one being an echoes one if you so wish. include your dream last 2 for this pass as well.

i need to do some thinking as after my absolute dream picks, i kinda run out of steam fast...

Pass 2

• Crash Bandicoot
• Sora (Kingdom Hearts)

Pass 3

• 2B (NieR Automata)
• Chun-Li (Street Fighter)
• Dr. Eggman (Sonic the Hedgehog)
• Lloyd Irving (Tales of Symphonia)

Pass 4

• Shantae
• Bandanna Dee (Kirby)
• Aigis (Persona 3)
• Gardevoir (Pokémon)

Echo Pass

• Dixie Kong 36ε (Donkey Kong)
• Metal Sonic 38ε (Sonic the Hedgehog)
• Zack Fair 61ε (Final Fantasy VII)
• Octoling 64ε (Splatoon)

 

[Golden Icarus]

you know... i kind of want to play a game.

IF, and i repeat, IF pass 2 isn't the end and all these executable slots are filled, who would you like to see fill said slots? Assuming Mythra takes up a separate exe slot and the last 2 of this pass give us 16, I've decided to divvy them up into 4 passes of 4 each, the last one being an echoes one if you so wish. include your dream last 2 for this pass as well.

i need to do some thinking as after my absolute dream picks, i kinda run out of steam fast...

Oh yes. Now this is the kind of discussion I am all about. Luckily, I have a hypothetical Fighters Pass 3 and 4 already made (both with six characters, which counting the echo pass would still add up to the same number).

Spoiler: The Dream

This is more of a dream scenario, but I kept it limited to characters that are "plausibly realistic." Not necessarily a prediction, but I tried to keep it within the realm of possibility.

 

[Mamboo07]

Speculation is gonna be boring when Fighter Pass 2 finishes.

 

[Fluttershy64]

you know... i kind of want to play a game.

IF, and i repeat, IF pass 2 isn't the end and all these executable slots are filled, who would you like to see fill said slots? Assuming Mythra takes up a separate exe slot and the last 2 of this pass give us 16, I've decided to divvy them up into 4 passes of 4 each, the last one being an echoes one if you so wish. include your dream last 2 for this pass as well.

i need to do some thinking as after my absolute dream picks, i kinda run out of steam fast...

Pass 2

• Crash Bandicoot
• Ryu Hayabusa

Pass 3-Mix of First and Third Parties

• Shantae
• Bandana Dee
• Chorus Kids
• Phoenix Wright

Pass 4- Assist Trophy's

• Waluigi
• Krystal
• Takamaru
• Isaac

Pass 5-"How did this Character Get in?!" Pass

• NES Golfer (Golf)
• Clementine (Telltale TWD)
• Gemini Sunrise (Sakura Wars: So Long, My Love)
• Maxwell (Scribblenauts)

Echo Pass

• Shadow
• Black Shadow
• Ninten
• Impa

 

[DarthEnderX]

Now, part of this post is a joke, but what clown characters would be good for Smash?

Kefka

That seems unreasonably silly. If they’re done in May they’ll be released in May.

That's not unreasonable at all.

Lots of games space out their DLC content based, not on when it's finished, but when it makes the most sense promotionally, to maintain excitement and interest over as long a period as possible.

Hi everybody. Cynthia should be a fighter (a fact, not my opinion). Have her be a trainer-style fighter with three 'mons. This is how Garchomp can still win.

Seriously, Pokemon fans that want another Trainer-style character, who want to deprive other fanbases of THREE other characters so that Pokemon can have an 11th, 12th and 13th character are just...the most selfish people on the planet.

 

[DevaAshera]

Kefka

Seriously, Pokemon fans that want another Trainer-style character, who want to deprive other fanbases of THREE other characters so that Pokemon can have an 11th, 12th and 13th character are just...the most selfish people on the planet.

I completely agree with more Final Fantasy VI love.

I pretty much agree with that view..a new Pokémon Trainer-esque character, while cool on paper, takes up the time of three separate characters and is honestly more to get the Trainer in than the actual Fighters, in my opinion, since I tend to see people wanting Cynthia but only mention Garchomp as one of her Pokémon..like, why not just have Garchomp and let Cynthia be a trainer in the background? Heck, we could put in more trainers if we just paired each Pokémon that comes out a Pokéball as their intro with a Trainer..it ain't like we're lacking trainers.

 

[Idon]

Joker is based off the card of the same name.

The card depicts a jester.

The jester is the medieval equivalent of a clown.

Joker is a clown.

 

[SpecterFlower]

here's my passes i guess

Pass 2
- Ryu Hayabusa
-monster Hunter

pass 3
-Bandana dee
- Leon Kennedy
-Karate Joe
-Yuri Lowell and Repede

pass 4
- Travis Touchdown
-ring fit trainee
-phoenix wright
-sol badguy

-pass 5
-Crash
- Style Savvy
-Dante
- 2B

i don't care enough about echeos to do them

 

[SWSU]

you know... i kind of want to play a game.

IF, and i repeat, IF pass 2 isn't the end and all these executable slots are filled, who would you like to see fill said slots? Assuming Mythra takes up a separate exe slot and the last 2 of this pass give us 16, I've decided to divvy them up into 4 passes of 4 each, the last one being an echoes one if you so wish. include your dream last 2 for this pass as well.

i need to do some thinking as after my absolute dream picks, i kinda run out of steam fast...

Fighters Pass 2:
10. Crash Bandicoot
11. Palico

Fighters Pass 3:
12. Jill Valentine
13. Miles "Tails" Prower
14. Shantae
15. Master Chief

Fighters Pass 4:
16. Tracer
17. Sora
18. Spyro the Dragon
19. Meowth (Galarian/Alola Alts)

Fighters Pass 5:
20. Klonoa
21. Lara Croft
22. Polar Bear (Ice Climbers)
23. Knuckles

Echo Pass

• Leon S. Kennedy
• Coco Bandicoot
• Metal Sonic
• Tom Nook

 

[SpectreJordan]

you know... i kind of want to play a game.

IF, and i repeat, IF pass 2 isn't the end and all these executable slots are filled, who would you like to see fill said slots? Assuming Mythra takes up a separate exe slot and the last 2 of this pass give us 16, I've decided to divvy them up into 4 passes of 4 each, the last one being an echoes one if you so wish. include your dream last 2 for this pass as well.

i need to do some thinking as after my absolute dream picks, i kinda run out of steam fast...

Pass 2:
Crash Bandicoot
Dante*

Pass 3:
Master Chief*
Jill Valentine
Officer Howard
Dr Eggman

Pass 4:
2B
Chun-Li
Frisk
Ring Fit Trainee

Pass 5:
Doom Slayer
Ryu Hayabusa
Waluigi
Ratchet & Clank

Echoes:
Impa
Dixie Kong
Metal Sonic
Raiden (Metal Gear Solid 2)

*Master Chief is my dream final pick for Fighter Pass 2 buuuuut if we’re getting more then I’m fine with spreading the companies out a bit more lol

 

[Chaosmaster8753]

If another Fighter Pass ends up happening after all, maybe it'll be teased at E3's digital event?

 

[SpectreJordan]

If another Fighter Pass ends up happening after all, maybe it'll be teased at E3's digital event?

I’d say that’s our last shot. I imagine they’d announce it right after the second to last character like they did with Terry.

 

[cashregister9]

I’d say that’s our last shot. I imagine they’d announce it right after the second to last character like they did with Terry.

There is also the alternate option where the pass finishes and we have no news of new DLC but then like 5-6 months later they announce "lol just kidding here is some more DLC."

 

[SpecterFlower]

There is also the alternate option where the pass finishes and we have no news of new DLC but then like 5-6 months later they announce "lol just kidding here is some more DLC."

that's what happened with tekken right? and street fighter,.

 

[DarthEnderX]

why not just have Garchomp and let Cynthia be a trainer in the background? Heck, we could put in more trainers if we just paired each Pokémon that comes out a Pokéball as their intro with a Trainer..it ain't like we're lacking trainers.

1000%

Give everyone but Mewtwo a trainer.

IF, and i repeat, IF pass 2 isn't the end and all these executable slots are filled, who would you like to see fill said slots? Assuming Mythra takes up a separate exe slot and the last 2 of this pass give us 16, I've decided to divvy them up into 4 passes of 4 each, the last one being an echoes one if you so wish. include your dream last 2 for this pass as well.

Pass 2:
1. Ryu Hayabusa [Ninja Gaiden]
2. Arthur [Ghosts ‘n Goblins]

Pass 3:
3. Bill Rizer/Lance Bean [Contra]
4. Kunio/Riki [River City]
5. SV-001 Metal Slug [Metal Slug]
6. Jill Valentine [Resident Evil]

Pass 4:
7. Shantae [Shantae]
8. Bub/Bob [Bubble Bobble]
9. Morrigan [Darkstalkers]
10. Nightmare [Soul Calibur]

Pass 5:
11. Captain Toad/Toadette [Treasure Tracker]
12. Rash/Zitz [Battletoads]
13. Dante [Devil May Cry]
14. Kazuma Kiryu [Yakuza]

Echo Pass:
11e. Black Shadow [Captain Falcon]
16e. Impa [Sheik]
38e. Shadow [Sonic]
46e. Bass [Megaman]

Oh yes. Now this is the kind of discussion I am all about. Luckily, I have a hypothetical Fighters Pass 3 and 4 already made (both with six characters, which counting the echo pass would still add up to the same number).

Spoiler: The Dream

This is more of a dream scenario, but I kept it limited to characters that are "plausibly realistic." Not necessarily a prediction, but I tried to keep it within the realm of possibility.
View attachment 305377View attachment 305375View attachment 305376View attachment 305378

Finally. Someone with good answers.

 

[DevaAshera]

1000%

Give everyone but Mewtwo a trainer.

Agreed.
Also, you accidentally double posted.

 

[Shroob]

So like, why does it seem like everyone thinks that P/M won't drop this week?

It's definitely possible sure, but we've yet to have a character announced in a standard Direct not come out very shortly after their Sakurai presents(It's almost always right after the presentation, actually).

Characters revealed via Sakurai Presents only are the ones that historically wait a week to drop.

 

[Cosmic77]

So like, why does it seem like everyone thinks that P/M won't drop this week?

It's definitely possible sure, but we've yet to have a character announced in a standard Direct not come out very shortly after their Sakurai presents(It's almost always right after the presentation, actually).

Characters revealed via Sakurai Presents only are the ones that historically wait a week to drop.

The presentation is on Thursday, so I guess people are thinking that there isn’t much time for anything else besides a same-day release.

Personally, I could easily see us waiting until the following Monday or Tuesday. That's not too long of a wait, and I feel like the odds of us getting Pyra and Mythra during the weekend are incredibly slim.

 

[Jocario Zero]

Who here remembers this trailer? They never released this version of the Brawl theme but I love it for some reason

Wow...what a blast from the past. I watched this trailer so many times back then.
A shame that we never got this version of brawls theme in the final game. Its' sooo good.

 

[Shroob]

The presentation is on Thursday, so I guess people are thinking that there isn’t much time for anything else besides a same-day release.

Personally, I could easily see us waiting until the following Monday or Tuesday. That's not too long of a wait, and I feel like the odds of us getting Pyra and Mythra during the weekend are incredibly slim.

Monday or Tuesday is likely, yes, but the reveal is also ridiculously early in the morning for America.

 

[jadetheseer]

you know... i kind of want to play a game.

IF, and i repeat, IF pass 2 isn't the end and all these executable slots are filled, who would you like to see fill said slots? Assuming Mythra takes up a separate exe slot and the last 2 of this pass give us 16, I've decided to divvy them up into 4 passes of 4 each, the last one being an echoes one if you so wish. include your dream last 2 for this pass as well.

i need to do some thinking as after my absolute dream picks, i kinda run out of steam fast...

heres what i would choose off the top of my head

FIGHTERS PASS 2
1. Ryu Hayabusa
2. Crash

FIGHTERS PASS 3
1. Dante
2. DOOMSlayer
3. Demi-fiend
4. Jin Kazama

FIGHTERS PASS 4
1. Amaterasu
2. Impa (Age of Calamity)
3. KOS-MOS
4. Reimu

FIGHTERS PASS 5
1. Monokuma
2. Issac (Binding of Issac)
3. Sol Badguy
4. Gordon Freeman

ECHO FIGHTERS PASS
1. Funky Kong
2. Ninten
3. Jeanne
4. Liquid Snake

 

[Knight Dude]

you know... i kind of want to play a game.

IF, and i repeat, IF pass 2 isn't the end and all these executable slots are filled, who would you like to see fill said slots? Assuming Mythra takes up a separate exe slot and the last 2 of this pass give us 16, I've decided to divvy them up into 4 passes of 4 each, the last one being an echoes one if you so wish. include your dream last 2 for this pass as well.

i need to do some thinking as after my absolute dream picks, i kinda run out of steam fast...

I'd have to really think since there's not a ton I'd call "huge dream picks" and its mostly, "This guy/chick is cool too". But what the hell, I'll try. You can switch the exact release order in what ever way you think makes slightly more sense. That said, I'll take Sakurai at his word and assume Season 2 is the end until stated otherwise. Tried having one first party character, one fighting game character and one "iconic" character per thingamajig, while also having some modern-ish stuff too. There's some crossover on some of those, but you get the point.


1. Mega Man X
2. Ryu Hayabusa

1. Jin Kazama
2. Dante
3. Dixie
4. Lara Croft

1. Chun-Li
2. Shovel Knight
3. Wonder Red
4. Crash

1. Sub-Zero
2. 2B
3. Fulgore
4. Isaac

e1. Protoman
e2. Scorpion
e3. Medusa
e4. Tails

 

[Peripuff]

Monday or Tuesday is likely, yes, but the reveal is also ridiculously early in the morning for America.

Yeah, like... it’s not even the usual early time either, it’s an hour earlier.

 

[Ben Holt]

Oof. You're all gonna regret giving me this power.

FIGHTERS PASS 2
1. Crash Bandicoot (and Coco as an Echo)
2. Monster Hunter
(Not based on the concert leak. I legit wanted these two.)

FIGHTERS PASS 3
1. Tails & Knuckles (One pack)
2. Waluigi
3. Master Chief
4. Rayman

FIGHTERS PASS 4
1. Chun Li
2. Toad (and Toadette as an Echo)
3. Doom Slayer
4. Spyro

FIGHTERS PASS 5
1. Shovel Knight
2. Earthworm Jim
3. Geno
4. Kratos

ECHO FIGHTERS PASS
1. Ms. Pac-Man
2. Shadow the Hedgehog
3. Proto Man
4. Dry Bowser

 

[Pillow]

you know... i kind of want to play a game.

IF, and i repeat, IF pass 2 isn't the end and all these executable slots are filled, who would you like to see fill said slots? Assuming Mythra takes up a separate exe slot and the last 2 of this pass give us 16, I've decided to divvy them up into 4 passes of 4 each, the last one being an echoes one if you so wish. include your dream last 2 for this pass as well.

i need to do some thinking as after my absolute dream picks, i kinda run out of steam fast...

Pass 2:

• Ryu Hayabusa (Ninja Gaiden)
• Crash Bandicoot (Crash Bandicoot)

Pass 3:

• Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney)
• Jin Kazama (Tekken)
• Reimu Hakurei (Touhou)
• Master Chief (Halo)

Pass 4:

• Chosen Undead/Unkindled (Dark Souls)
• Arle Nadja (Puyo Puyo)
• 2B (Nier Automata)
• Chun-Li (Street Fighter)

Pass 5:

• Kiryu Kazuma (Yakuza)
• Jill Valentine (Resident Evil)
• Haruka Amami (Idolmaster)
• Doomslayer (Doom)

Echo Pass

• Dixie (Diddy)
• Octoling (Inklings)
• Impa (Sheik)
• Tom Nook (Villager)
• Shadow the Hedgehog (Sonic)

 

[DX_E]

you know... i kind of want to play a game.

IF, and i repeat, IF pass 2 isn't the end and all these executable slots are filled, who would you like to see fill said slots? Assuming Mythra takes up a separate exe slot and the last 2 of this pass give us 16, I've decided to divvy them up into 4 passes of 4 each, the last one being an echoes one if you so wish. include your dream last 2 for this pass as well.

i need to do some thinking as after my absolute dream picks, i kinda run out of steam fast...

Here's mine.

Fighter Pass 2
Dixie Kong
Lara Croft

Fighter Pass 3
Ryu Hayabusa
DOOM Slayer
Porky
Jill Valentine/Leon S. Kennedy

Fighter Pass 4
Master Chief
Dante
Crash Bandicoot
Paper Mario

Fighter Pass 5
Chun Li
Dr Robotnik
Sora
Scorpion

Echo Fighters
Octoling (Inkling)
Impa (Sheik)
Ninten (Ness)
Medusa (Palutena)

 

[Evil Trapezium]

you know... i kind of want to play a game.

IF, and i repeat, IF pass 2 isn't the end and all these executable slots are filled, who would you like to see fill said slots? Assuming Mythra takes up a separate exe slot and the last 2 of this pass give us 16, I've decided to divvy them up into 4 passes of 4 each, the last one being an echoes one if you so wish. include your dream last 2 for this pass as well.

i need to do some thinking as after my absolute dream picks, i kinda run out of steam fast...

Pass 2:
1. Crash Bandicoot (Crash Bandicoot)
2. Sgt. Cortez (TimeSplitters)

Pass 3:
3. Axel Stone (Streets of Rage)
4. Klonoa (Klonoa)
5. Doom Guy (DOOM)
6. Sora (Kingdom Hearts)

Pass 4:
7. Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney)
8. Decidueye (Pokemon)
9. Ryu Hayabusa (Ninja Gaiden)
10. Sol Badguy (Guilty Gear

Pass 5:
11. Tails (Sonic The Hedgehog)
12. Jin Kazama (Tekken)
13. Bandanna Dee (Kirby)
14. Dante (Devil May Cry)

Echo Pass:
03e/22e. Adult Link (Ocarina of Time) - Brings back Link's moveset from Melee.
11e/23e. Black Shadow (F-Zero) - Brings back Ganondorf's old moveset from Brawl/Smash 4 while reworking Ganondorf's moveset to be more like Ocarina of Time.
14e. Dry Bowser (Super Mario) - Essentially just small Giga Bowser and brings back his Melee/Brawl moveset.
49e. Sceptile (Pokemon) - Idle animation is similar to the one in Pokemon XD/Battle Revolution, Uses his Leaf Blades to attack instead of Water Kunais, Uses Leaf Storm instead of Hydro Pump which works similarly to Hero's up special, Uses Energy Ball instead of Water Shuriken, Uses Pursuit instead of Shadow Sneak which doesn't do a lot of damage on it's own but does a lot of damage on shields.

 

[Pillow]

I completely agree with more Final Fantasy VI love.

I pretty much agree with that view..a new Pokémon Trainer-esque character, while cool on paper, takes up the time of three separate characters and is honestly more to get the Trainer in than the actual Fighters, in my opinion, since I tend to see people wanting Cynthia but only mention Garchomp as one of her Pokémon..like, why not just have Garchomp and let Cynthia be a trainer in the background? Heck, we could put in more trainers if we just paired each Pokémon that comes out a Pokéball as their intro with a Trainer..it ain't like we're lacking trainers.

We wouldn't even need to have Garchomp for Cynthia...she can be Lucario's trainer. Though it'd be to see anyone other than Red be the trainer for either Pikachu, Greninja, or the current elemental starter trio as he's usually the trainer associated with all of those. I suppose Blue could take over as the starter trainer, and Serena/Calem could be the trainer for Greninja while Red/Leaf moves to Pikachu.

There is also the alternate option where the pass finishes and we have no news of new DLC but then like 5-6 months later they announce "lol just kidding here is some more DLC."

If there actually is going to be further dlc content past FP2, then this is a pretty likely scenario. All evidence points to all of Ultimate DLC having started from as early as Smash 4, so they would likely need more time to negotiate deals with 3rd parties, design movesets from scratch, etc.

 

[Diddy Kong]

After Pyra and Mythra, How do we feel about more first parties?

I’m leaning more towards 2 third parties myself.

Bring me more. I could see a Zelda or Pokemon character happening easily.

 

[Staarih]

So like, why does it seem like everyone thinks that P/M won't drop this week?

It's definitely possible sure, but we've yet to have a character announced in a standard Direct not come out very shortly after their Sakurai presents(It's almost always right after the presentation, actually).

Characters revealed via Sakurai Presents only are the ones that historically wait a week to drop.

I guess it could go either way, as you said, we haven't had a Direct reveal in a while. Seeing as all characters in 2020 were released a week or so later, I think it's just what I personally expect from now on. It gives some leeway to potential issues and also helps to space out releases too. We'll see what happens.

and I don't think the time the presentation airs is significant, they've been all over the place haha. I think Byleth's was at the same time slot as Pyra/Mythra's is, but was still released later. Then again, Byleth was also revealed in the same presentation, so I dunno.