Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[DaybreakHorizon]

Time to write up a big prediction post that will inevitably get proven wrong: my true prediction is that everything I say here will be a laughable relic by the time we know Challenger Pack 9 and their associated Mii Costumes. Assuming Volume 2 is the end, I do predict the end of "reveal, presentation and release are all in the same month" we've had for most of 2020's cast. Partially to artificially extend hype, partially to ensure these characters are of the highest quality they can be.

No Square Enix and no Microsoft reps, assuming companies do not repeat. DLC Mii Costumes are not included, except Rex due to his unique circumstance, and are not factored in for the ones yet to return. Assist Trophies ARE included. All of these guys are examples, it could be anybody who fits these molds.

Challenger Pack #9: A low key third party compared to hypemasters Steve and Sephiroth. Perhaps regional in their appeal, these characters got in based on a combination of financial merit for their owning party, the goodwill and mutual marketing for Nintendo, and moveset potential or legacy for Sakurai. Reveal is sometime between February to March, releases in either April or June (nothing ever happens in May). If June, their presentation is at the start of the E3 event, or any replacement if applicable.

Candidates (bold: pay attention to them):

Konami	Bill Rizer (Contra) Frogger
SEGA	Arle Nadja (Puyo Puyo) Kazuma Kiryu (Yakuza) Sakura Shinguji (Sakura Wars)
Capcom	Amaterasu (Okami) Morrigan (Darkstalkers) Viewtiful Joe
Bandai-Namco	Lloyd Irving/Yuri Lowell (Tales of) Don-Chan (Taiko no Tatsujin) Haruka Amami (Idolm@ster, I wouldn't count on this one) The Prince (Katamari Damacy)
Japanese Third Parties	Professor Layton (Level-5) Jibanyan (Level-5)
Western Third Parties	Maxwell (Scribblenauts) Any indies that are not listed below. Standouts below: Quote (Cave Story, Nicalis) The Knight (Hollow Knight, Team Cherry) Shantae (...who owns her?)

Challenger Pack #10: A big fan favorite, and the last "big" character of the pass, as well as the final third party. These guys might be more popular in the west than Japan, and the definition of fan favorite may vary depending on multiple factors. Revealed at the end of Nintendo's E3 event, or late into June-early July if there is no E3 event. Releases sometime in mid-late August to early September.

Candidates:

Konami	Raiden (Metal Gear) Alucard (Castlevania)
SEGA	Dr. Eggman (Sonic the Hedgehog)
Capcom	Monster Hunter (I think they'll be shown at an event and not a direct) Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney) Dante (Devil May Cry) Chun-Li (Street Fighter)
Bandai-Namco	Agumon (Digimon) Tekken rep that is not Heihachi (if it can happen)
Japanese Third Parties	Ryu Hayabusa (Ninja Gaiden, Koei-Tecmo) If at this point he's still in it, Sora (Kingdom Hearts, Disney) - Personally I consider him out w Square Enix
Western Third Parties	Any Valve, Activision or Ubisoft rep Scorpion (Mortal Kombat, Warner Bros.) Frisk (Undertale, Toby Fox) Freddy Fazbear (Five Nights at Freddy's, Scott Cawthon) Shovel Knight (Yacht Club Games) Terraria rep (Re-Logic)

Challenger Pack #11: A first party candidate. I don't really have anything to add here. At this point the character has big shoes to fill and they will either surpass even the lesser third parties (Waluigi might be able to one-up all of them), or continue the First Party DLC curse (being super controversial, with several detractors). Reveal in October, presumable November (or late October) release.

Candidates:

Super Mario Bros (verse)	Waluigi Toad Dixie Kong Wario rep
The Legend of Zelda	Impa
Kirby	Bandana Waddle Dee
Pokémon	Galarian Pokémon
Fire Emblem (I know, I know)	FE17's protagonist, if applicable
Xenoblade	Rex(?)
Other Represented	An unknown character from a represented series
Unrepresented on Roster	An entirely new IP Isaac (Golden Sun) Lip (Panel de Pon) A new retro character

If there's any notable exclusions, please, let me know! While I have a pretty rigid set of predictions, they're also extremely open.

I do have to say I like the way you're speculating using a list of potential candidates rather than predicting a specific set of characters. I feel like this is the best way to go about speculation going forward given the open nature of speculation right now.

In terms of a first party character, I definitely think we'll see another one. As to who that'll be, I personally think it'll either be Rex or another Xenoblade character or Waluigi, as those feel like the most glaring omissions on the roster first-party wise right now.

 

[Momotsuki]

I won't deny sales are an indicator of popularity, you'd think that myself–who frequents forums, websites, and servers that prominently feature Nintendo content–would hear more about it other than cursory comments. In this entire conversation I haven't heard much about Luigi's Mansion that makes it more than just another Mario spinoff, nor have I gotten that impression previously either.

While Mario spinoffs certainly have their standout characters, I would not consider King Boo to be among them nor would I consider him a remotely exciting or likely pick for DLC, which is the original point.

But do pop off on me for likes that's cool too.

Y'know - when damn-near everyone disagrees with me - which has happened, I've a few bad takes! - I usually just change the subject (though rest assured I haven't changed my mind.) What's this about - you think you're being popped off on for likes? Bah?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

When I talk about "flair" I mean these deeper character traits than just "be evil and charge they phone." Any villain can have a memorable attack or two, but you don't see me calling for Xemnas to be in this game because his laser room attack is baller as ****.

Well, to be fair most of Nintendo's villains are fairly basic.

• kidnaps Peach just 'cuz and only the non-cannon side games go into detail with his character, which is a shame because he's consistently one of the best written characters in every single game.
• and his brethren are literally just stock villains at this point.
• steals the Kong's bananas because he can.
• being evil for the sake of being evil is his memorable trait because it's played straight (that is, when his story is even in the games).
• just prattles on about how much he killed Fox's dad because every other game is Star Fox 64.

The design, mannerisms, and overall execution of the pure evil trope are probably what attracts people to characters like this.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I won't deny sales are an indicator of popularity, you'd think that myself–who frequents forums, websites, and servers that prominently feature Nintendo content–would hear more about it other than cursory comments. In this entire conversation I haven't heard much about Luigi's Mansion that makes it more than just another Mario spinoff, nor have I gotten that impression previously either.

While Mario spinoffs certainly have their standout characters, I would not consider King Boo to be among them nor would I consider him a remotely exciting or likely pick for DLC, which is the original point.

But do pop off on me that's cool too.

So the only evidence you have is a personal anecdote?

And for the record. I'm going after your logic. Not you.

I don't appreciate the assertion that I'm doing it for likes. I'm not even paying attention to them in the first place.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Tekken rep that is not Heihachi (if it can happen)

Who said it has to be Tekken?

Soulcalibur is so slept on here, honestly.

 

[Faso115]

When Season 2 was planned around the time the first season was happening then it gives you the impression that both that season and the current one were planned around the same time.

Which gives me the impression that a Season 3 is not THAT unlikely considering how development seems to have weird tidbits like Steve and Sephiroth having been discussed way earlier than they were released.

 

[CodakTheWarrior]

I won't deny sales are an indicator of popularity, you'd think that myself–who frequents forums, websites, and servers that prominently feature Nintendo content–would hear more about it other than cursory comments. In this entire conversation I haven't heard much about Luigi's Mansion that makes it more than just another Mario spinoff, nor have I gotten that impression previously either.

While Mario spinoffs certainly have their standout characters, I would not consider King Boo to be among them nor would I consider him a remotely exciting or likely pick for DLC, which is the original point.

But do pop off on me that's cool too.

Aye to each their own my good sir, can’t knock you for your opinion of a game

 

[Rie Sonomura]

When Season 2 was planned around the time the first season was happening then it gives you the impression that both that season and the current one were planned around the same time.

Which gives me the impression that a Season 3 is not THAT unlikely considering how development seems to have weird tidbits like Steve and Sephiroth having been discussed way earlier than they were released.

now that i think about it

maybe the "currently no plans" was referring to after pass 3 was finished... too farfetched or nah?

 

[7NATOR]

Well, to be fair most of Nintendo's villains are fairly basic.

• kidnaps Peach just 'cuz and only the non-cannon side games go into detail with his character, which is a shame because he's consistently one of the best written characters in every single game.
• and his brethren are literally just stock villains at this point.
• steals the Kong's bananas because he can.
• being evil for the sake of being evil is his memorable trait because it's played straight (that is, when his story is even in the games).
• just prattles on about how much he killed Fox's dad because every other game is Star Fox 64.

The design, mannerisms, and overall execution of the pure evil trope are probably what attracts people to characters like this.

Wolf killed Fox's Dad?

 

[Shroob]

now that i think about it

maybe the "currently no plans" was referring to after pass 3 was finished... too farfetched or nah?

See this gal? You're reaching harder than her.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Soulcalibur is so slept on here, honestly.

As is basically every other Bandai-Namco IP not named Tales of.

 

[Perkilator]

Who said it has to be Tekken?

Soulcalibur is so slept on here, honestly.

As is basically every other Bandai-Namco IP not named Tales of.

Dark Souls especially.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

now that i think about it

maybe the "currently no plans" was referring to after pass 3 was finished... too farfetched or nah?

Didn't Sakurai specifically state no plans beyond Pass 2?

 

[cashregister9]

As is basically every other Bandai-Namco IP not named Tales of.

This face will be our savior

 

[Faso115]

Wolf killed Fox's Dad?

Nope, that was Pigma, the traitor the betrayed James McCloud and Peppy. Wolf does work with him in 64 but in general Wolf tends to ride the line between Anti-Villain and Villain.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Dark Souls especially.

Can agree on that one, but whenever Tekken is brought up, the weapon-wielding cousin is often ignored despite playing similarly and having had a history of crossovers long before Tekken did it, including one with Link on Soulcalibur II (which would be perfect to reference on a reveal trailer).

I guess that should be expected with the Smash fanbase's hatred for swords, but come on.

 

[CodakTheWarrior]

Didn't Sakurai specifically state no plans beyond Pass 2?

I’m almost 100% he did, and I mean while a third pass would be super awesome ofc I also have to say that sakurai deserves a break from smash at SOME point, given the lack of a break between smash 4’s dlc and ultimate’s initial planning, poor dude’s been working on smash for the past, like, 8 or 9 years now, Jesus. And even before that he was working on Kid Icarus too

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Counterpoint: he said “no plans” not “yup this is the final one no ifs or buts”. Plans CAN change. I’ve found the link to the interview that said Mewtwo was the only planned DLC for 4 at one point lemme find it

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Y'know - when damn-near everyone disagrees with me, I usually just change the subject. What's this about - you think you're being popped off on for likes? Bah?

To be fair, it is a habit of this thread to team up Avengers-style to take down opinions widely disagreed with. My apologies for recognizing a trend where I saw it starting. I suppose a change in topic is needed though, so I'll drop this argument after this post.

So the only evidence you have is a personal anecdote?

And for the record. I'm going after your logic. Not you.

I don't appreciate the assertion that I'm doing it for likes. I'm not even paying attention to them in the first place.

I think it's more than personal anecdote since I like to consider myself above average when it comes to picking up on trends and patterns, but I suppose if that's how you see it then yes.

Let's just agree to disagree and call it there.

 

[Adrianette Bromide]

I'm not overly optimistic as the Namco costumes seem to be spread across as filler but I mean... the head dev company for Ultimate wouldn't just come out of Ultimate empty handed minus a few costumes would they??

 

[Icedragonadam]

I wonder if we'll finally see the return of regular Nintendo directs in 2021. Sakurai is back at the studio albeit with new regulations.

Even with the covid situation outside of Japan, I'm sure they could at least have someone add subtitled translations for the non-Japanese version of the direct.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

• just prattles on about how much he killed Fox's dad because every other game is Star Fox 64.

Thought it was Pigma who killed James McCloud after betraying him on a mission investigation regarding Andross and afterwards joined Wolf's team before eventually being kicked out?

 

[7NATOR]

Counterpoint: he said “no plans” not “yup this is the final one no ifs or buts”. Plans CAN change. I’ve found the link to the interview that said Mewtwo was the only planned DLC for 4 at one point lemme find it

To be fair, with Pass 2, he did say that after Development on these 6 Fighters is finished, development on Smash Ultimate will be over

Which, In my opinion, is a much stronger indication of nothing in the future happening than his comments about plans after FP1

 

[Faso115]

I just hope March is when Crash Bandicoot is revealed so i can create the ultimate theory.

The April Fool's curse.

 

[Shroob]

Counterpoint: he said “no plans” not “yup this is the final one no ifs or buts”. Plans CAN change. I’ve found the link to the interview that said Mewtwo was the only planned DLC for 4 at one point lemme find it

They can sure, but until he actually says they have, we're better off assuming that plans have not changed.

 

[CodakTheWarrior]

To be fair, it is a habit of this thread to team up Avengers-style to take down opinions widely disagreed with. My apologies for recognizing a trend where I saw it starting. I suppose a change in topic is needed though, so I'll drop this argument after this post.

I think it's more than personal anecdote since I like to consider myself above average when it comes to picking up on trends and patterns, but I suppose if that's how you see it then yes.

Let's just agree to disagree and call it there.

I honestly completely agree with you. I may disagree with your intial point but you’re 100% right that people here, and I mean pretty much the entire internet, tend to gang up on widely opposed views, I always like to very calmly and politely agree to disagree like you said as to avoid such situations from happening, even if I disagree with the initial point

 

[PeridotGX]

King Boo isn't even the best "mario villain that primarily resides in spinoffs, fights a side character, and is based on a generic enemy".

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Counterpoint: he said “no plans” not “yup this is the final one no ifs or buts”. Plans CAN change. I’ve found the link to the interview that said Mewtwo was the only planned DLC for 4 at one point lemme find it

Which is 100% true.

But until proof of the contrary, it's best to assume Pass 2 is it.

Could we get more? Maybe, and it'd be fun to speculate about it, but let's not expect a third Pass like it was guaranteed or something.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Hmmm speaking of proof one way or the other, have the data miners found out if the number of those slots has changed or not? I’m not expecting another brave scenario, just wanna know if the number of slots in the code is the same or not

 

[CodakTheWarrior]

King Boo isn't even the best "mario villain that primarily resides in spinoffs, fights a side character, and is based on a generic enemy".View attachment 296994

I think I might just have some bizarre affinity for side Mario villains but kamek would be hype af for me too ngl

 

[Michael the Spikester]

As of current, the most I expect would be a few additional individual DLC or a 4-Bundle Echo Pack.

 

[Shroob]

So how bout Chun Li

 

[Wunderwaft]

Time to write up a big prediction post that will inevitably get proven wrong: my true prediction is that everything I say here will be a laughable relic by the time we know Challenger Pack 9 and their associated Mii Costumes. Assuming Volume 2 is the end, I do predict the end of "reveal, presentation and release are all in the same month" we've had for most of 2020's cast. Partially to artificially extend hype, partially to ensure these characters are of the highest quality they can be.

No Square Enix and no Microsoft reps, assuming companies do not repeat. DLC Mii Costumes are not included, except Rex due to his unique circumstance, and are not factored in for the ones yet to return. Assist Trophies ARE included. All of these guys are examples, it could be anybody who fits these molds.

Challenger Pack #9: A low key third party compared to hypemasters Steve and Sephiroth. Perhaps regional in their appeal, these characters got in based on a combination of financial merit for their owning party, the goodwill and mutual marketing for Nintendo, and moveset potential or legacy for Sakurai. Reveal is sometime between February to March, releases in either April or June (nothing ever happens in May). If June, their presentation is at the start of the E3 event, or any replacement if applicable.

Candidates (bold: pay attention to them):

Konami	Bill Rizer (Contra) Frogger
SEGA	Arle Nadja (Puyo Puyo) Kazuma Kiryu (Yakuza) Sakura Shinguji (Sakura Wars)
Capcom	Amaterasu (Okami) Morrigan (Darkstalkers) Viewtiful Joe
Bandai-Namco	Lloyd Irving/Yuri Lowell (Tales of) Don-Chan (Taiko no Tatsujin) Haruka Amami (Idolm@ster, I wouldn't count on this one) The Prince (Katamari Damacy)
Japanese Third Parties	Professor Layton (Level-5) Jibanyan (Level-5)
Western Third Parties	Maxwell (Scribblenauts) Any indies that are not listed below. Standouts below: Quote (Cave Story, Nicalis) The Knight (Hollow Knight, Team Cherry) Shantae (...who owns her?)

Challenger Pack #10: A big fan favorite, and the last "big" character of the pass, as well as the final third party. These guys might be more popular in the west than Japan, and the definition of fan favorite may vary depending on multiple factors. Revealed at the end of Nintendo's E3 event, or late into June-early July if there is no E3 event. Releases sometime in mid-late August to early September.

Candidates:

Konami	Raiden (Metal Gear) Alucard (Castlevania)
SEGA	Dr. Eggman (Sonic the Hedgehog)
Capcom	Monster Hunter (I think they'll be shown at an event and not a direct) Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney) Dante (Devil May Cry) Chun-Li (Street Fighter)
Bandai-Namco	Agumon (Digimon) Tekken rep that is not Heihachi (if it can happen)
Japanese Third Parties	Ryu Hayabusa (Ninja Gaiden, Koei-Tecmo) If at this point he's still in it, Sora (Kingdom Hearts, Disney) - Personally I consider him out w Square Enix
Western Third Parties	Any Valve, Activision or Ubisoft rep Scorpion (Mortal Kombat, Warner Bros.) Frisk (Undertale, Toby Fox) Freddy Fazbear (Five Nights at Freddy's, Scott Cawthon) Shovel Knight (Yacht Club Games) Terraria rep (Re-Logic)

Challenger Pack #11: A first party candidate. I don't really have anything to add here. At this point the character has big shoes to fill and they will either surpass even the lesser third parties (Waluigi might be able to one-up all of them), or continue the First Party DLC curse (being super controversial, with several detractors). Reveal in October, presumable November (or late October) release.

Candidates:

Super Mario Bros (verse)	Waluigi Toad Dixie Kong Wario rep
The Legend of Zelda	Impa
Kirby	Bandana Waddle Dee
Pokémon	Galarian Pokémon
Fire Emblem (I know, I know)	FE17's protagonist, if applicable
Xenoblade	Rex(?)
Other Represented	An unknown character from a represented series
Unrepresented on Roster	An entirely new IP Isaac (Golden Sun) Lip (Panel de Pon) A new retro character

If there's any notable exclusions, please, let me know! While I have a pretty rigid set of predictions, they're also extremely open.

Respectable predictions and I agree with the ordering of the packs, such as CP9 being a smaller third party and whatnot. One company I would like to mention for CP9 as a low key third party addition is Falcom. The company itself has a long deep history, it had it's ups and downs but it survived into the modern era and it's still pumping out lovable JRPGs. The most likely pick from that company is Adol from Ys, though we could get a Trails character instead like Rean or Estelle. If you want to learn from about Falcom then this neat video explains a lot.

 

[Faso115]

So how bout Chun Li

Let's talk about inputs. How would a charge character work in smash for example?

Combo characters are going to despise her for being another Fighting Game character and is likely she will have the same passive as Ryu, Ken and Terry

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

So how bout Chun Li

I'm gonna be straight-up honest here; my reaction depends on how her content would be handled.

If they pull a Terry and have her being all these other awesome Capcom IPs in music and Spirits, I'm on board.

If it's just more Street Fighter, I'll be genuinely pissed because it'd mean dozens of characters from really awesome IPs just lost to "Street Fighter but again". She might even be my most hated addition in Ultimate's entire lifetime if that's the scenario just from that alone, and I actually like Chun-Li as a character.

Not that Street Fighter isn't cool, but Capcom is way more than just that one franchise.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Wolf killed Fox's Dad?

Thought it was Pigma who killed James McCloud after betraying him on a mission investigation regarding Andross and afterwards joined Wolf's team before eventually being kicked out?

Admittedly, my information comes second hand so I'm not entirely sure.

 

[PeridotGX]

I think I might just have some bizarre affinity for side Mario villains but kamek would be hype af for me too ngl

I'd be extremely hype for Kamek. He was either the first or one of the first characters i really, truely wanted (Marx is really close). He'd also have a really unique move set, because we still don't have a generic mage.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

So how bout Chun Li

She earns her place on the roster. She's there with Samus, Lara Croft, and Tifa when female video game characters comes to mind.

 

[Spongeboob]

Spoiler: What are you looking at?

So how bout Chun Li

Meh.

 

[Perkilator]

I'm gonna be straight-up honest here; my reaction depends on how her content would be handled.

If they pull a Terry and have her being all these other awesome Capcom IPs in music and Spirits, I'm on board.

If it's just more Street Fighter, I'll be genuinely pissed because it'd mean dozens of characters from really awesome IPs just lost to "Street Fighter but again"

Not that Street Fighter isn't cool, but Capcom is way more than just that one franchise.

If all other safe options are unavailable....

...then here's someone who's covered wars.