Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[DaybreakHorizon]

I'd say a decent amount of people have played Luigi's Mansion for it to have gotten 2 sequels. Also the notion that King Boo is some obscure or forgettable character is whack considering he is Luigi's Bowser and has a multitude of appearances in other games, most notably the hugely successful Mario Kart series.

Calling King Boo "Luigi's Bowser" seems like somewhat of a stretch to me considering that Luigi...also fights Bowser? Sure, the major rivalry is between Mario and Bowser, but Luigi is, for the most part, always a player in those fights. Luigi already has a Bowser because he fights the Bowser on the regular. In regards to additional appearances, I don't necessarily think an appearance in the Mario Kart roster alongside literal mooks like Koopa Troopa, Shy Guy, and Dry Bones is the strongest argument.

This might be a personal thing, but I've always gotten the impression that the Luigi's Mansion series lacks any sort of major, memorable identity and is more "scary Mario spinoff with Luigi" that you play once and then shove in the closet to never touch again. The exception to this being the first game, which for some reason stands out more compared to its peers. I acknowledge this is more a subjective point than an objective one, but I feel the need to mention it nonetheless.

Also, if you think about King Boo is functionally similar to a Piranha Plant. The Luigi's Mansion series exists to flesh out Luigi's character–he's the star of the show, with E. Gadd playing the spunky sidekick. Any ghosts that get in Luigi's way exist to be evil and get the SUCC from the Poltergeist, King Boo included. There's no additional flair or personality there; all he do is be evil, charge he phone, and get succ. That's why I'd personally place him alongside Plant in terms of wider recognition and reception.

 

[Wunderwaft]

A part of me wants to see a gacha character with randomly-determined characters assisting them in one of their specials. Just do down special, pull out a random character to help you, and pray they're not the one that kamikaze's and destroys you too.

Huh
That's actually quite an interesting way to adapt a gacha character into Smash. Hero's Down B but you have no idea what you're getting. Sounds fun, frustrating, cathartic, and despairful all at the same time. Just like your standard gacha

 

[Shroob]

Calling King Boo "Luigi's Bowser" seems like somewhat of a stretch to me considering that Luigi...also fights Bowser? Sure, the major rivalry is between Mario and Bowser, but Luigi is, for the most part, always a player in those fights. Luigi already has a Bowser because he fights the Bowser on the regular. In regards to additional appearances, I don't necessarily think an appearance in the Mario Kart roster alongside literal mooks like Koopa Troopa, Shy Guy, and Dry Bones is the strongest argument.

This might be a personal thing, but I've always gotten the impression that the Luigi's Mansion series lacks any sort of major, memorable identity and is more "scary Mario spinoff with Luigi" that you play once and then shove in the closet to never touch again. The exception to this being the first game, which for some reason stands out more compared to its peers. This might be

Also, if you think about King Boo is functionally similar to a Piranha Plant. The Luigi's Mansion series exists to flesh out Luigi's character–he's the star of the show, with E. Gadd playing the spunky sidekick. Any ghosts that get in Luigi's way exist to be evil and get the SUCC from the Poltergeist, King Boo included. There's no additional flair or personality there; all he do is be evil, charge he phone, and get succ. That's why I'd personally place him alongside Plant in terms of wider recognition and reception.

Googles when King Boo was created

Damnit, it was after 1993.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Huh
That's actually quite an interesting way to adapt a gacha character into Smash. Hero's Down B but you have no idea what you're getting. Sounds fun, frustrating, cathartic, and despairful all at the same time. Just like your standard gacha

Fire Emblem Summoner except your Down B has a 99% chance to summon Raigh who performs the weakest attack in the game.

Imagine the salt from both Fire Emblem fans and people who are tired of Fire Emblem in Smash.

 

[Idon]

In a universe where Piranha Plant did not exist, I could definitely see King Boo being the frontliner for "This Smash game's obligatory Mario addition^TM" considering everyone else has been put down but honestly at this point I think they've missed their bus. If he got in, I'd be surprised.

and personally, I'm not too into him as a character all that much either

 

[Quillion]

I feel like if King Boo gets in, they might have to recategorize Luigi as the star of his own series like DK, Yoshi, and Wario.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Yeah ngl, I really wouldn't be feeling King Boo

I'd still be happy for his fans, but I'd much prefer Waluigi, Pauline, or Captain Toad if we were to get another mario rep

 

[Momotsuki]

King Boo would be cool as hell. Moveset potential sounds dummy interesting.

 

[metalhydra273]

Yeah ngl, I really wouldn't be feeling King Boo

I'd still be happy for his fans, but I'd much prefer Waluigi, Pauline, or Captain Toad if we were to get another mario rep

King Boo would be a pretty based base game character though (or even bonus surprise like plant)

 

[7NATOR]

On the topic of Game mechanics that could be added to Smash

I really want new Takes on the Transformation/Power up mechanics for Smash. I Like how One winged Angel works as a Comeback mechanic, but I also want something more interesting, like

-Transformation you get for Doing good (the better you do, the stronger you get)

-Transformation you can activate at anytime, but there's risk to it (Example: you take damage as you in transformation)

 

[osby]

I don't have anything against antagonists but can I say how much I dislike the notion that we HAVE TO get certain characters just because they are the main villain to another fighter in the roster?

Sure, a lot of villains have enough merits on their own... so why not use them for support instead of creating an arbitrary quota? Just because we can use more bad guys doesn't being being a bad guy alone makes you the perfect newcomer.

 

[CodakTheWarrior]

Seems like a poor matchup against Ryu, Ken and Terry then.

OOF yea I won’t lie I didn’t even think about that lmao I conceptualized him for a fangame roster without any of those characters but yea that’s probs an issue oops

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Same, Luigi needs his archnemesis!
(Mario has Bowser, Link has Ganon, Donkey Kong has K. Rool... so can Luigi.)

Don't forget/&and&

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

This might be a personal thing, but I've always gotten the impression that the Luigi's Mansion series lacks any sort of major, memorable identity and is more "scary Mario spinoff with Luigi" that you play once and then shove in the closet to never touch again. The exception to this being the first game, which for some reason stands out more compared to its peers. This might be

That'd be because the first one has somewhat of a creepy atmosphere, which hasn't really been replicated since likely due to the fact that deviating from the New Super Mario Bros. stuff is not allowed for the most part, so making anything even remotely creepy would probably also not be allowed. So now it's more whimsical than anything else.

Also, if you think about King Boo is functionally similar to a Piranha Plant. The Luigi's Mansion series exists to flesh out Luigi's character–he's the star of the show, with E. Gadd playing the spunky sidekick. Any ghosts that get in Luigi's way exist to be evil and get the SUCC from the Poltergeist, King Boo included. There's no additional flair or personality there; all he do is be evil, charge he phone, and get succ. That's why I'd personally place him alongside Plant in terms of wider recognition and reception.

That's a pretty gross oversimplification of how boss fights in the Luigi's Mansion series work. By that logic, Bowser's just a generic mook because all he do is be evil, and get dunked on by your platforming skills. EDIT: Or Ganondorf is just a generic mook because all he do is be evil and get the stabby stabby. Boss fights are called boss fights because they require extra steps and/or strategies in order to attack them. Your method of attack being the same as in the rest of the game doesn't take that away.

And also, how does trapping you in a ghost dimension where he creates an entire hallway just to tear it down Katamari style lack any flair?

 

[SneakyLink]

Yeah we should probably get another DK villain soon... Sakurai is going after K. Rool again.

pic.twitter.com/EoSvZyElVc

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) December 24, 2020

 

[CodakTheWarrior]

I don't have anything against antagonists but can I say how much I dislike the notion that we HAVE TO get certain characters just because they are the main villain to another fighter in the roster?

Sure, a lot of villains have enough merits on their own... so why not use them for support instead of creating an arbitrary quota? Just because we can use more bad guys doesn't being being a bad guy alone makes you the perfect newcomer.

Completely agree. I do genuinely want both King Boo and Eggman both because I feel they both bring their own merits and for my nostalgia for SA2B/ Luigi’s Mansion, but it certainly can get cloudy on whether said villain characters have lots of support for their actual character themselves or just their villain status

 

[Ny0kazer]

On the topic of Game mechanics that could be added to Smash

I really want new Takes on the Transformation/Power up mechanics for Smash. I Like how One winged Angel works as a Comeback mechanic, but I also want something more interesting, like

-Transformation you get for Doing good (the better you do, the stronger you get)

-Transformation you can activate at anytime, but there's risk to it (Example: you take damage as you in transformation)

I dunno about you, but this would make for a nice mechanic...

 

[DarthEnderX]

i mean Crono's the last guy on the seven squares list to not appear yet, not counting Sora

feel like most if not all spirit events were to coincide with a recent release/rerelease tho

Time for Chrono Trigger to come to Nintendo Online!

 

[shinhed-echi]

A part of me wants to see a gacha character with randomly-determined characters assisting them in one of their specials. Just do down special, pull out a random character to help you, and pray they're not the one that kamikaze's and destroys you too.

Ivd been wanting this for a while now too.

First I thought Hero could summon a random DQ monster. Until he was revealed.

Then I moved the idea towards Medusa if she's in. To summon a minion from the underworld army. They are coded at least due to Smash Run.

 

[Spongeboob]

Out of sheer curiosity

What would the general consensus here be if King Boo were one of the last three fighters?

While my final thoughts of him would ultimately depends on how he plays, I'd say my first impression of King Boo would probably leave me feeling boredom and dissapointment. As a villain, I don't find "The Green Wonder's Bowser" all that entertaining especially compared to other Mario Donkey Kong villains.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Okay but like, let's be real here, how many people have actually played Luigi's Mansion? Especially to the degree where they'd remember King Boo of all characters? I feel like Luigi's Mansion is a game people talk up all the time and then even in core fan communities like this forum you just...don't hear about it that much. I haven't played any of the games myself, but I've always gotten the impression that the series is forgettable besides the first game. At the very least I don't believe it's an iconic series in the sense of "demands major representation in Smash."

King Boo would definitely be taken the same as Piranha Plant because people at large know the character just as much as Plant. Semantics such as "main villain" and "boss character" don't matter in this case.

As it should be.

Speculation is actually interesting right now given that we're not hanging on the every word of "insiders" or "leakers" or whatever the hell they're called nowadays. I'd prefer things stay that way.

Saying the Luigi's Mansion franchise is forgettable and unknown is probably the worst take I've seen from you Pony.

Like... wtf, the last one sold 5 million. You don't have to like King Boo but he's not some nobody.

 

[Munchi]

I would be pretty cool with King Boo, he and Captain Toad would be my first picks for a new Mario character.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I think the opinion I'd agree with most is that while he's not that great a DLC pick, he could be a pretty neat base roster pick, especially with how interesting they could make his moveset. Sakurai (or whoever) could really go ham with all the ghosty stuff.

-Transformation you get for Doing good (the better you do, the stronger you get)

Quote could do that. He gets experience points by landing hits, and loses them when he gets hit. I'm not entirely sure how that could be implemented to prevent him from being a super annoying snowballey zoner though.

EDIT: Aside from making him a little too undertuned at level 1. That would be kinda sad.

Time for Chrono Trigger to come to Nintendo Online!

That might actually get me to purchase Nintendo's Online Service.

 

[Dalek_Kolt]

Yeah we should probably get another DK villain soon... Sakurai is going after K. Rool again.

pic.twitter.com/EoSvZyElVc

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) December 24, 2020

Hey I remember this Brawl mod.

Also I remember people saying K. Rool felt the most like a playable bossfight with his powerful attacks that required reading/pattern recognition to overcome. Wonder if that's why he's being paired off with the new boss fighter Sephiroth.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Yeah we should probably get another DK villain soon... Sakurai is going after K. Rool again.

pic.twitter.com/EoSvZyElVc

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) December 24, 2020

Midgar Zolom reference?

 

[osby]

Saying the Luigi's Mansion franchise is forgettable and unknown is probably the worst take I've seen from you Pony.

Like... wtf, the last one sold 5 million. You have to like King Boo but he's not some nobody.

I don't have anything to add but I like the Freudian slip here.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

That'd be because the first one has somewhat of a creepy atmosphere, which hasn't really been replicated since likely due to the fact that deviating from the New Super Mario Bros. stuff is not allowed for the most part, so making anything even remotely creepy would probably also not be allowed. So now it's more whimsical than anything else.


That's a pretty gross oversimplification of how boss fights in the Luigi's Mansion series work. By that logic, Bowser's just a generic mook because all he do is be evil, and get dunked on by your platforming skills.

And also, how does trapping you in a ghost dimension where he creates an entire hallway just to tear it down Katamari style lack any flair?

So then we run into the age old (since 2009) issue of the Wahoominati.



Those dastards!

In terms of flair, Bowser has the benefit of three decade's worth of major appearances as an antagonist and a multitude of side games and media expanding his character, including a major playable appearance in Bowser's Inside Story among others. This also applies to other antagonists in the series, except for Plant.

When I talk about "flair" I mean these deeper character traits than just "be evil and charge they phone." Any villain can have a memorable attack or two, but you don't see me calling for Xemnas to be in this game because his laser room attack is baller as ****.

Saying the Luigi's Mansion franchise is forgettable and unknown is probably the worst take I've seen from you Pony.

Like... wtf, the last one sold 5 million. You have to like King Boo but he's not some nobody.

The Gex series sold a total combined 15 million units, but I don't think anyone would call him "popular" by any means.

Sales=/=Popularity

 

[Wunderwaft]

On the topic of Game mechanics that could be added to Smash

I really want new Takes on the Transformation/Power up mechanics for Smash. I Like how One winged Angel works as a Comeback mechanic, but I also want something more interesting, like

-Transformation you get for Doing good (the better you do, the stronger you get)

-Transformation you can activate at anytime, but there's risk to it (Example: you take damage as you in transformation)

Since he's on my mind right now the prince of persia does have a transformation form with the dark prince form. I made a moveset for him a long time ago so I'll repost it if anyone wants an idea on how he could work.

Spoiler: Prince of Persia moveset

The prince is a sword fighter who fights with a dagger and can dual wield scimitars. He's capable of reversing time to a certain point. My idea on how to execute this in smash is to make it his up b recovery move, however the prince can only travel backwards in time depending on how many sands of time he has, it's a resource he has in the games that restricts how far he can go back and if it runs out then he can't time travel. He can regain the sands as the battle goes on and he inflicts and receives damage. I also believe the sands of time shouldn't put the prince in freefall, instead he has the opportunity to double jump from his reversed time or strike. If the prince returns back in time to a point where the opponent is exactly in then it would deal massive damage to the opponent, making his time manipulation not just a defensive option but also an offensive option, a high risk but high reward move.

The acrobatics he has would make his aerial acceleration very high among the cast which enables him to move faster in the air, likewise his jumps would be higher than average and he is able to wall jump.

His side special would be his dual wielding scimitar combo. It's similair to Marth's dancing blade where the prince has many options to strike up or down or forward. It seems simple, but that's because I have an idea to incorporate it with the down special.

The down special would be the prince's dark prince transformation. For the sake of balance this transformation would rely on the sands of time as well, if the sands run out then the transformation runs out. In compensation the dark prince transformation would allow him to deal more damage in his normals and aerials. The main change from this is that the side special would change from the dual scimitars to the daggertail chain whip, a much far reaching attack than the dual scimitars. If you played the God of War games then it's a bit similair to Kratos' chains. The Dark Prince transformation may be strong, but it uses the sands of time as resources which means if it runs out then recovering will be difficult, knowing when to use the transformation and when to turn it off will be important to take care of your sand.

For the neutral special we are going to use one of the djinn powers. The Prince will use ice blast, a move that creates a wave of ice traveling forward on the ground which damages enemies. The move would be able to carry the opponents with them like Greninja's water shuriken.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Can I just say how fantastic it is that Sephiroth doesn't really have an annoying gimmick.

I mean, technically he DOES have a gimmick, but it's effortless and happens automatically, so it does nothing to complicate the character.


Also, I bought the Geno costume. YOU'RE WELCOME Geno fans.

Edit: I just noticed the mods shut down the Geno thread.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

The Gex series sold a total combined 15 million units, but I don't think anyone would call him "popular" by any means.

Sales=/=Popularity

Then what gauges Popularity?

What your specific group of friends is talking about?

Luigi's Mansion content appears all the time in Mario spinoff. The games keep getting made... They sell well. They get referenced all the time...

Your definition of popular is assinine.

 

[Ridrool64]

Time to write up a big prediction post that will inevitably get proven wrong: my true prediction is that everything I say here will be a laughable relic by the time we know Challenger Pack 9 and their associated Mii Costumes. Assuming Volume 2 is the end, I do predict the end of "reveal, presentation and release are all in the same month" we've had for most of 2020's cast. Partially to artificially extend hype, partially to ensure these characters are of the highest quality they can be.

No Square Enix and no Microsoft reps, assuming companies do not repeat. DLC Mii Costumes are not included, except Rex due to his unique circumstance, and are not factored in for the ones yet to return. Assist Trophies ARE included. All of these guys are examples, it could be anybody who fits these molds.

Challenger Pack #9: A low key third party compared to hypemasters Steve and Sephiroth. Perhaps regional in their appeal, these characters got in based on a combination of financial merit for their owning party, the goodwill and mutual marketing for Nintendo, and moveset potential or legacy for Sakurai. Reveal is sometime between February to March, releases in either April or June (nothing ever happens in May). If June, their presentation is at the start of the E3 event, or any replacement if applicable.

Candidates (bold: pay attention to them):

Konami	Bill Rizer (Contra) Frogger
SEGA	Arle Nadja (Puyo Puyo) Kazuma Kiryu (Yakuza) Sakura Shinguji (Sakura Wars)
Capcom	Amaterasu (Okami) Morrigan (Darkstalkers) Viewtiful Joe
Bandai-Namco	Lloyd Irving/Yuri Lowell (Tales of) Don-Chan (Taiko no Tatsujin) Haruka Amami (Idolm@ster, I wouldn't count on this one) The Prince (Katamari Damacy)
Japanese Third Parties	Professor Layton (Level-5) Jibanyan (Level-5)
Western Third Parties	Maxwell (Scribblenauts) Any indies that are not listed below. Standouts below: Quote (Cave Story, Nicalis) The Knight (Hollow Knight, Team Cherry) Shantae (...who owns her?)

Challenger Pack #10: A big fan favorite, and the last "big" character of the pass, as well as the final third party. These guys might be more popular in the west than Japan, and the definition of fan favorite may vary depending on multiple factors. Revealed at the end of Nintendo's E3 event, or late into June-early July if there is no E3 event. Releases sometime in mid-late August to early September.

Candidates:

Konami	Raiden (Metal Gear) Alucard (Castlevania)
SEGA	Dr. Eggman (Sonic the Hedgehog)
Capcom	Monster Hunter (I think they'll be shown at an event and not a direct) Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney) Dante (Devil May Cry) Chun-Li (Street Fighter)
Bandai-Namco	Agumon (Digimon) Tekken rep that is not Heihachi (if it can happen)
Japanese Third Parties	Ryu Hayabusa (Ninja Gaiden, Koei-Tecmo) If at this point he's still in it, Sora (Kingdom Hearts, Disney) - Personally I consider him out w Square Enix
Western Third Parties	Any Valve, Activision or Ubisoft rep Scorpion (Mortal Kombat, Warner Bros.) Frisk (Undertale, Toby Fox) Freddy Fazbear (Five Nights at Freddy's, Scott Cawthon) Shovel Knight (Yacht Club Games) Terraria rep (Re-Logic)

Challenger Pack #11: A first party candidate. I don't really have anything to add here. At this point the character has big shoes to fill and they will either surpass even the lesser third parties (Waluigi might be able to one-up all of them), or continue the First Party DLC curse (being super controversial, with several detractors). Reveal in October, presumable November (or late October) release.

Candidates:

Super Mario Bros (verse)	Waluigi Toad Dixie Kong Wario rep
The Legend of Zelda	Impa
Kirby	Bandana Waddle Dee
Pokémon	Galarian Pokémon
Fire Emblem (I know, I know)	FE17's protagonist, if applicable
Xenoblade	Rex(?)
Other Represented	An unknown character from a represented series
Unrepresented on Roster	An entirely new IP Isaac (Golden Sun) Lip (Panel de Pon) A new retro character

If there's any notable exclusions, please, let me know! While I have a pretty rigid set of predictions, they're also extremely open.

 

[CodakTheWarrior]

So then we run into the age old (since 2009) issue of the Wahoominati.

View attachment 296992

Those dastards!

In terms of flair, Bowser has the benefit of three decade's worth of major appearances as an antagonist and a multitude of side games and media expanding his character, including a major playable appearance in Bowser's Inside Story among others. This also applies to other antagonists in the series, except for Plant.

When I talk about "flair" I mean these deeper character traits than just "be evil and charge they phone." Any villain can have a memorable attack or two, but you don't see me calling for Xemnas to be in this game because his laser room attack is baller as ****.

The Gex series sold a total combined 15 million units, but I don't think anyone would call him "popular" by any means.

Sales=/=Popularity

To be fair, I am very biased towards the series given it’s one of my all time favorites, but i would certainly call the series popular. Not exactly an all-time chart topper, but the series has garnered three titles which is pretty significant. I’ve had plenty of friends outside of the Nintendo and even gaming sphere that have heard of Luigi’s mansion in great detail as well. I really think the series is genuinely pretty popular, more so than just a cult following.

though your point about the wahoominati is certainly a great point.

 

[Shroob]

So anyway, it's minor but according to Famitsu's Sakurai column as translated by Source Gaming in their newest upload, Sakurai thought about Sephiroth's trailer "Before FF7R even came out", which had a release date of April 10th this year.


While it doesn't 100% confirm the exact time of when Sakurai got the rights to Sephiroth, I have a hard time believing that he'd have only gotten Hero before the game came out, and then went back later for Sephiroth.

 

[Dalek_Kolt]

Saying the Luigi's Mansion franchise is forgettable and unknown is probably the worst take I've seen from you Pony.

Like... wtf, the last one sold 5 million. You have to like King Boo but he's not some nobody.

Also, like, pretty much ALL of Luigi's personality that people love him for and separated him from Mario comes from that series.
You think people like Green Mario just because they hate red?

 

[7NATOR]

I dunno about you, but this would make for a nice mechanic...

Phoenix is the only character I can think of that would probably have a mechanic where he He Stronger the better he does (well Smash puppy mentioned Quote as well though, but Personally I don't know if Quote will happen, and as Smash Puppy mentioned, would be hard to balance since he is Zoner)

It would make him kind of a hard Character to Play because I imagine he won't be very strong before he gets powered up, But That's how his games, and in extension, being a Lawyer works. Plus Visual novels are inherently a Niche genre too, so I don't think there's as much need to make the Phoenix the most simple character around

-------------------------------------------------

As for King Boo, I would be just kind of confused to be honest. I guess it would explain why there were no Luigi Mansion 3 spirits, but eh.

 

[ZelDan]

There are a good number of first party characters I'd love to see playable in Smash.

King Boo is not one of them.

 

[Wunderwaft]

So anyway, it's minor but according to Famitsu's Sakurai column as translated by Source Gaming in their newest upload, Sakurai thought about Sephiroth's trailer "Before FF7R even came out", which had a release date of April 10th this year.


While it doesn't 100% confirm the exact time of when Sakurai got the rights to Sephiroth, I have a hard time believing that he'd have only gotten Hero before the game came out, and then went back later for Sephiroth.

Interesting but I can't really say it gives us a time frame to work on. April 2020 is long after the pass went on sale and the line-up was finalized. But I will say it does confirm that they did work on all three characters at the same time, albeit some took more importance and work to complete first before they moved the rest of their work force on the other fighters in order to release the characters on time.

 

[Perkilator]

Time to write up a big prediction post that will inevitably get proven wrong: my true prediction is that everything I say here will be a laughable relic by the time we know Challenger Pack 9 and their associated Mii Costumes. Assuming Volume 2 is the end, I do predict the end of "reveal, presentation and release are all in the same month" we've had for most of 2020's cast. Partially to artificially extend hype, partially to ensure these characters are of the highest quality they can be.

No Square Enix and no Microsoft reps, assuming companies do not repeat. DLC Mii Costumes are not included, except Rex due to his unique circumstance, and are not factored in for the ones yet to return. Assist Trophies ARE included. All of these guys are examples, it could be anybody who fits these molds.

Challenger Pack #9: A low key third party compared to hypemasters Steve and Sephiroth. Perhaps regional in their appeal, these characters got in based on a combination of financial merit for their owning party, the goodwill and mutual marketing for Nintendo, and moveset potential or legacy for Sakurai. Reveal is sometime between February to March, releases in either April or June (nothing ever happens in May). If June, their presentation is at the start of the E3 event, or any replacement if applicable.

Candidates (bold: pay attention to them):

Konami	Bill Rizer (Contra) Frogger
SEGA	Arle Nadja (Puyo Puyo) Kazuma Kiryu (Yakuza) Sakura Shinguji (Sakura Wars)
Capcom	Amaterasu (Okami) Morrigan (Darkstalkers) Viewtiful Joe
Bandai-Namco	Lloyd Irving/Yuri Lowell (Tales of) Don-Chan (Taiko no Tatsujin) Haruka Amami (Idolm@ster, I wouldn't count on this one) The Prince (Katamari Damacy)
Japanese Third Parties	Professor Layton (Level-5) Jibanyan (Level-5)
Western Third Parties	Maxwell (Scribblenauts) Any indies that are not listed below. Standouts below: Quote (Cave Story, Nicalis) The Knight (Hollow Knight, Team Cherry) Shantae (...who owns her?)

Challenger Pack #10: A big fan favorite, and the last "big" character of the pass, as well as the final third party. These guys might be more popular in the west than Japan, and the definition of fan favorite may vary depending on multiple factors. Revealed at the end of Nintendo's E3 event, or late into June-early July if there is no E3 event. Releases sometime in mid-late August to early September.

Candidates:

Konami	Raiden (Metal Gear) Alucard (Castlevania)
SEGA	Dr. Eggman (Sonic the Hedgehog)
Capcom	Monster Hunter (I think they'll be shown at an event and not a direct) Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney) Dante (Devil May Cry) Chun-Li (Street Fighter)
Bandai-Namco	Agumon (Digimon) Tekken rep that is not Heihachi (if it can happen)
Japanese Third Parties	Ryu Hayabusa (Ninja Gaiden, Koei-Tecmo) If at this point he's still in it, Sora (Kingdom Hearts, Disney) - Personally I consider him out w Square Enix
Western Third Parties	Any Valve, Activision or Ubisoft rep Scorpion (Mortal Kombat, Warner Bros.) Frisk (Undertale, Toby Fox) Freddy Fazbear (Five Nights at Freddy's, Scott Cawthon) Shovel Knight (Yacht Club Games) Terraria rep (Re-Logic)

Challenger Pack #11: A first party candidate. I don't really have anything to add here. At this point the character has big shoes to fill and they will either surpass even the lesser third parties (Waluigi might be able to one-up all of them), or continue the First Party DLC curse (being super controversial, with several detractors). Reveal in October, presumable November (or late October) release.

Candidates:

Super Mario Bros (verse)	Waluigi Toad Dixie Kong Wario rep
The Legend of Zelda	Impa
Kirby	Bandana Waddle Dee
Pokémon	Galarian Pokémon
Fire Emblem (I know, I know)	FE17's protagonist, if applicable
Xenoblade	Rex(?)
Other Represented	An unknown character from a represented series
Unrepresented on Roster	An entirely new IP Isaac (Golden Sun) Lip (Panel de Pon) A new retro character

If there's any notable exclusions, please, let me know! While I have a pretty rigid set of predictions, they're also extremely open.

Crash Bandicoot and Chosen Undead from Dark Souls; I'm surprised thet weren't no-brainers for their respective categories.

...Also, Shantae is owned by WayForward.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Then what gauges Popularity?

What your specific group of friends it talking about?

Luigi's Mansion content appears all the time in Mario spinoff. The games keep getting made... They sell well. They get referenced all the time...

Your definition of popular is assinine.

I won't deny sales are an indicator of popularity, you'd think that myself–who frequents forums, websites, and servers that prominently feature Nintendo content–would hear more about it other than cursory comments. In this entire conversation I haven't heard much about Luigi's Mansion that makes it more than just another Mario spinoff, nor have I gotten that impression previously either.

While Mario spinoffs certainly have their standout characters, I would not consider King Boo to be among them nor would I consider him a remotely exciting or likely pick for DLC, which is the original point.

But do pop off on me that's cool too.

 

[Shroob]

Interesting but I can't really say it gives us a time frame to work on. April 2020 is long after the pass went on sale and the line-up was finalized. But I will say it does confirm that they did work on all three characters at the same time, albeit some took more importance and work to complete first before they moved the rest of their work force on the other fighters in order to release the characters on time.

I mean, at that point it more or less points to a 2018 or before date as to when Sephiroth's rights were obtained. As you said, 2020 was too late, and if Hero was in development for some of 2018 and released in 2019, I just don't see a world where they had to just... go back for 2nds, especially since it seems like their goal really was to bring back every Mii costume, meaning...

IMO at the very least, 2 waves of DLC were probably planned at the bare minimum from the start. This easily explains why the very first patch of the game added more than necessary DLC slots into the code, and, if we actually put the tinfoil hat on and factor in the Chun Leak, Sakurai already had Sephiroth's rights before the game even came out.