Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[SKX31]

Nintendo financials time.

Switch is at 79 million, surpassing the sales of the 3DS.

And the Top 10 games were updated, evergreens keep on growing. Smash at 22 mil, Animal Crossing at whopping 31 mil and Sw/Sh got over 20 mil, first to do so since G/S.

And apparently Ring Fit is over 8mil, Pikmin3DX got to 1,92 mil (best Pikmin yet?), Luigi's Mansion 3 is over 9 mil and Mario Kart Live broke 1 mil too + others.

Switch is a beast.

Some people here might be interested in a regional breakdown of Switch sales. Q4 sales divided by regions (Q4 2019 in brackets). I also include 2020s totals using Nintendo's data:

• Japan: 2,71 million (2,42 million) - 6,46 million Switches sold in Japan throughout 2020.
• Americas: 4,59 million (4,22 million) - 10,30 million Switches sold in the region throughout 2020.
• Europe: 2,97 million (3,02 million) - 6,82 million Switches sold in Europe throughout 2020.
• Other regions: 1,30 million (1,15 million) - 3,79 milliion Switches sold in other regions throughout 2020.

One region that might be (partially) excluded from Nintendo's data is China, due to Tencent handling the official releases and the unofficial "grey market" imports being mainly Japanese Switches. I don't expect either number to be huge during Q4 - Tencent recently noted that they had shipped a million Switches since they started selling in December 2019, and Zhuge's firm estimates that the Chinese lifetime numbers for the Switch is 4 million. The combined 2020 numbers in the country are estimated to be more than 1,3 million, and chances are pretty good that Q4 accounted for around 0,5 million.

The same article notes that: "The company’s earnings reports show it has sold more than 2.5 million units in the Asia-Pacific region excluding Japan this year." TIL that Nintendo considers Australia / New Zealand part of the Asia-Pacific region (was wondering if they saw Australia in a similar boat as EU due to both being PAL regions historically).

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if Southeast Asia (Thailand, Indonesia etc.) are counted under the "Asia-Pacific" label. While Nintendo's region selector doesn't feature either SEA or Middle East, Nintendo sells Switches to those two regions via Singapore-based firm Maxsoft (who's used the Active Boeki / Active Gulf labels).

I'm going to list down the trailers from cool to lame.
12. Steve breaks some blocks then leaves. How exciting.

What I imagine Steve's thoughts were during the trailer:

"Wonder what this place has - oh hey it's Mario! Wonder if he also intros himself by eating the stea- oh **** there's a creeper! No resources either, this cave's not worth it! g2g hf Mario!"

 

[Otoad64]

Watch the next Smash have about 3 new fighters from Animal Crossing because of this.

Seriously, what makes this game so highly regarded compared to earlier Animal Crossing games? To me the basic goals always seem so similar.

it's mainly because of quarantine I believe

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Watch the next Smash have about 3 new fighters from Animal Crossing because of this.

Seriously, what makes this game so highly regarded compared to earlier Animal Crossing games? To me the basic goals always seem so similar.

Couple of factors involved.

First its been a long time since a mainline AC was released. New Horizons was a life preserver to those that had been pining for a new entry after the dry Wii-U years.

Secondly Animal Crossing had grown a lot leading up to 2020. People getting exposed to New Leaf and some of the older releases simply grew the fanbase even more, especially when there's such an extensive online community based around it which maintained the franchise's momentum even with a lack of big releases.

Finally while NH has its issues, the appeal of literally building the neighborhood yourself drew a lot people in and gave it a novelty that made up for its deficiencies.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I don't think they've figured out what to do with HMs yet, I'm not really a fan of any of their attempts to replace it.
My idea is to give each Pokemon type a HM like ability and having a Pokemon of that type in your party lets you use the respective ability.

I actually like this idea, with the caveat that you can register your Pokémon like you could with Ride Pokémon. I wouldn't base the ability based on type though, I'd do it with individual Pokémon.

I wish Dark Link was named in the CSS and by the announcer, like Alex & the Koopalings.

I'd agree with you, though this is actually the first "Dark Link" that isn't actually Dark Link, but rather, Link in a costume, so it makes more sense that he doesn't go named here. All the other versions though, they should be named.

Couple of factors involved.

First its been a long time since a mainline AC was released. New Horizons was a life preserver to those that had been pining for a new entry after the dry Wii-U years.

Secondly Animal Crossing had grown a lot leading up to 2020. People getting exposed to New Leaf and some of the older releases simply grew the fanbase even more, especially when there's such an extensive online community based around it which maintained the franchise's momentum even with a lack of big releases.

Finally while NH has its issues, the appeal of literally building the neighborhood yourself drew a lot people in and gave it a novelty that made up for its efficiencies.

Also it came out when everyone was stuck inside and this is the perfect casual game to escape to.

 

[Knight Dude]

Okay, guys, I thought I'd play a lil game if you're all interested.
If you could add newcomers to Super Smash Bros. Ultimate from any (or every) series, regardless of 'importance' to their series, how many or how few characters are currently included, how many characters are in the game, fan rules, taking up 'slots' from someone else, or how relevant they are..who would you choose?
No judgments, just curious..here are my choices.
: Geno, Waluigi (ideally a Wario Rep..but he hasn't been in a Wario game yet..), Vivian, King Boo, Fawful
: Dixie Kong
: Impa (AoC), Ganon (LttP-style), Midna & Wolf Link
: Kamek
: Adeleine, Bandana Waddle Dee
: Krystal (Adventures-based, Assault Alt)
: Gardevoir (my fav)
: Kumatora
: Black Shadow
: Tharja, Lyn, Edelgard, Hector
: Medusa
: Ashley, Capt. Syrup
: Raiden
: Dr. Eggman, Shadow, Knuckles
: Zero (MMZ-based, MMX Alt), Bass.EXE
: Nia & Dromarch, Rex & Prya/Mithra, Melia, Elma
: Chun-Li, Akira (Rival Schools)
: Terra Branford, Tifa Lockhart, Rydia
: Jeanne
: Octolings
: Shanoa
: Aigis
: Athena Asamiya (technically Terry reps SNK based on the Music)
: Twintelle, Lola Pop

So going full MUGEN? Bet.
Mega Man X, Tron and GBA Zero for Mega Man.
Chun-Li, Cammy and Akuma for SF.
Geese, Leona, Iori for KOF.
Shanoa, Soma, Alucard for CV.
Knuckles, Tails, Eggman for Sonic.
Misango, Sylux, Dixie, Fiora, Elma for Nintendo.
And I guess throw Waluigi fans a bone and add him too. See you all in Fighter's Pass 16. Coming in the year 21XX.

If I was being slightly realistic, I'd probably cut this down to like, 4 characters total. So MMX, Chun, Knuckles and Elma I guess.

 

[JOJONumber691]

Watch the next Smash have about 3 new fighters from Animal Crossing because of this.

Seriously, what makes this game so highly regarded compared to earlier Animal Crossing games? To me the basic goals always seem so similar.

Honestly, if Nintendo wanted to they would probably force Sakurai to do a New Horizons Character lol.

 

[Otoad64]

I wouldn't be suprised if Villager look like a new horizons villager in Smash 6

even if the default just looks like that

 

[RouffWestie]

Out of the newcomers who do you guys think have had the best trailer so far?

The Castlevania pair. Luigi was the perfect choice to open with.
Rosalina and Luma's is still far above all the trailers. The thing started with Kirby's Air Ride, then went to Mario Kart, it was a wild ride. Some outside factors probably helped like the fact that it had to set the foundation for how future reveals would play out and that it came at the end of a general direct with NO indication what it was a trailer for. (FYI there was no "crossing-slashes into flames" for anyone who was watching the direct at the time it aired.)

 

[Knight Dude]

Best trailer is probably either Terry or Sephiroth for the number of references in them and selling the idea of the character. Ridley and Simon tho, I got a personal soft spot for. Those are right below them.

Lamest was Isabelle's I guess. It was the least action packed, tho given the series it was from, can't really blame them.

For other games, Mega Man's, Ryu's and Snake's come to mind. But honestly most trailers are at least solid.

For the sales stuff, Animal Crossing dethroning MK8DX doesn't surprise me too much. People were mad hungry for a new AC title, let alone one on a home console. **** was bound to make cash money.

 

[SNEKeater]

Nintendo financials time.

Switch is at 79 million, surpassing the sales of the 3DS.

And the Top 10 games were updated, evergreens keep on growing. Smash at 22 mil, Animal Crossing at whopping 31 mil and Sw/Sh got over 20 mil, first to do so since G/S.

And apparently Ring Fit is over 8mil, Pikmin3DX got to 1,92 mil (best Pikmin yet?), Luigi's Mansion 3 is over 9 mil and Mario Kart Live broke 1 mil too + others.

Switch is a beast.

Yep Pikmin 3 Deluxe has outsold previous entries in only 2 months.

Definitely very good news for the franchise. If they weren't already working on Pikmin 4 I'm sure they will at some point.

To be honest almost anything on the Switch will sell well if Nintendo plays his cards correctly. This console is probably the best place and moment to revive IPs or establish old franchises. I'm expecting good numbers for Metroid Prime 4, also because that would probably mean the series would be kept alive with more frequent releases.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I wouldn't be suprised if Villager look like a new horizons villager in Smash 6

I honestly hope they do. It's a really smart redesign.

 

[PeridotGX]

so tom nook and ring fit are confirmed for Smash 6. cool news.

 

[JOJONumber691]

I think we could very easily see a New Horizons Fighter as Ultimate's DLC lol. Probably as a Bonus outside of the Pass, but I do think if we get any Bonus Fighters, it will relate directly to New Horizons.

 

[DarthEnderX]

As for the best trailer, Sephiroth, it does a fantastic job at building him up and the rest of the CG truly sells how ****ing powerful he is wirh Sephiroth ****ing decimating the entire roster.

Well...technically Galeem decimated the entire roster. Sephiroth only kicks 3 asses, then gets beat down himself.

 

[MattX20]

Nintendo financials time.

Switch is at 79 million, surpassing the sales of the 3DS.

And the Top 10 games were updated, evergreens keep on growing. Smash at 22 mil, Animal Crossing at whopping 31 mil and Sw/Sh got over 20 mil, first to do so since G/S.

And apparently Ring Fit is over 8mil, Pikmin3DX got to 1,92 mil (best Pikmin yet?), Luigi's Mansion 3 is over 9 mil and Mario Kart Live broke 1 mil too + others.

Switch is a beast.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if Smash Ultimate's final lifetime sales are 25 million or higher

 

[RouffWestie]

I wouldn't be suprised if Villager look like a new horizons villager in Smash 6

even if the default just looks like that

Seems like it'd basically just be a hurtbox extension. Though they'd also have to extend the tree in conjunction with it, so I might be down for that.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

If they weren't already working on Pikmin 4 I'm sure they will at some point.

With how Miyamoto said "Pikmin 4 is being worked on" back in 2016 and we still haven't heard of it...

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Watch the next Smash have about 3 new fighters from Animal Crossing because of this.

Seriously, what makes this game so highly regarded compared to earlier Animal Crossing games? To me the basic goals always seem so similar.

i can think of several (mostly QoL) reasons:

• never again will you dread TT-ing cause one of your favorite villagers left unexpectedly. this time they need your express consent to leave. if you ignore them with the thinking of leaving thought bubble, they won't leave until you tell them "ok u can go"
• you pick where your villagers' houses are beforehand, no more will you have to worry about ruined tree/flower arrangements or paths
• campsite recruitment is more flexible too
• NH lets you terraform
• outdoor furniture, and you won't have to crowdfund it like with PWPs
• no grass deterioration
• no Rafflesias if you're away too long, all you get is weeds everywhere. annoying, but at least your villagers won't raise a stink (pun unintended) about it
• you can easily change your hairstyle
• more emotes

etc...

 

[Dinoman96]

Doesn't it suck how one of the main characters of the highest selling Pikmin game is forever stuck as a throwaway alt costume

 

[Otoad64]

Doesn't it suck how one of the main characters of the highest selling Pikmin game is forever stuck as a throwaway alt costume

yeah, I wish he had been an echo

too bad they were too busy making dark pit his own character

 

[Firox]

Doesn't it suck how one of the main characters of the highest selling Pikmin game is forever stuck as a throwaway alt costume

To be fair, the playstyles of Olimar and Alph are virtually indistinguishable, hence it wouldn't really make sense for them to be separate characters in the first place. I mean, I'm not even sure it would be worth making an echo fighter considering that the two are basically alt swaps even in the context of Pikmin itself. It would be the same as arguing that Ms. Pacman should be her own fighter despite canonically being nothing but Pacman with a bow on her head.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

hot take i lowkey want Brittany as a second Pikmin rep

female? check
can technically use Rock Pikmin? check
doesn't fit the proportions to be merely an alt? check
cute as heck? cheeeeeeeck

 

[Perkilator]

To be fair, the playstyles of Olimar and Alph are virtually indistinguishable, hence it wouldn't really make sense for them to be separate characters in the first place. I mean, I'm not even sure it would be worth making an echo fighter considering that the two are basically alt swaps even in the context of Pikmin itself. It would be the same as arguing that Ms. Pacman should be her own fighter despite canonically being nothing but Pacman with a bow on her head.

Alph would simply use Rock Pikmin instead of, say, Purple Pikmin. Boom, there's your Echo Fighter.

 

[Otoad64]

To be fair, the playstyles of Olimar and Alph are virtually indistinguishable, hence it wouldn't really make sense for them to be separate characters in the first place. I mean, I'm not even sure it would be worth making an echo fighter considering that the two are basically alt swaps even in the context of Pikmin itself. It would be the same as arguing that Ms. Pacman should be her own fighter despite canonically being nothing but Pacman with a bow on her head.

Alph should use Rock Pikmin and Olimar should have a different Up Special


'd

 

[JOJONumber691]

hot take i lowkey want Brittany as a second Pikmin rep

female? check
can technically use Rock Pikmin? check
doesn't fit the proportions to be merely an alt? check
cute as heck? cheeeeeeeck

Don't do that. Don't give me hope.

 

[Perkilator]

Alph should use Rock Pikmin and Olimar should have a different Up Special


'd

Maybe have Pikmin Chain back, but keeping the same six Pikmin regardless of how many Pikmin Olimar has with him on the Battlefield?

 

[CommanderZaktan]

Final month of Winter. So, are we going to see a reveal later this month or next month?

 

[Firox]

Alph would simply use Rock Pikmin instead of, say, Purple Pikmin. Boom, there's your Echo Fighter.

Alph should use Rock Pikmin and Olimar should have a different Up Special


'd

Ok, I guess that could work for an echo. I suppose we got Dark Pit instead because Kid Icarus is Sakurai's baby.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Final month of Winter. So, are we going to see a reveal later this month or next month?

fiscal year's ending soon so hopefully this month

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Seems like it'd basically just be a hurtbox extension. Though they'd also have to extend the tree in conjunction with it, so I might be down for that.

Maybe not. Isabelle uses the new design and she's not any taller than Villager...Wait, is she taller?

 

[Otoad64]

Ok, I guess that could work for an echo. I guess we got Dark Pit instead because Kid Icarus is Sakurai's baby.

I think I heard he said it would "look weird" for Dark Pit to use the 3 sacred treasures.

that's why he wasn't an alt.

as if it isn't weird for Alph to pilot Olimar's ship.

 

[JOJONumber691]

fiscal year's ending soon so hopefully this month

Considering Nintendo accidentally leaked that a Direct is coming, and amiibo Theory has never been wrong, I'm expecting a reveal late this month, around the 27th, and the Sakurai Presentation and release on the Same Day around the Week of the 26th, when the Banjo, Terry, and Male Byleth amiibo come out.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Considering Nintendo accidentally leaked that a Direct is coming, and amiibo Theory has never been wrong, I'm expecting a reveal late this month, around the 27th, and the Sakurai Presentation and release on the Same Day around the Week of the 26th, when the Banjo, Terry, and Male Byleth amiibo come out.

Whoa whoa whoa hold up WHAAAAAAAAT???

source NOW

 

[Firox]

I think I heard he said it would "look weird" for Dark Pit to use the 3 sacred treasures.

that's why he wasn't an alt.

as if it isn't weird for Alph to pilot Olimar's ship.

LOL I totally didn't realize that Alph was piloting Olimar's ship. So much for canonical accuracy.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Considering Nintendo accidentally leaked that a Direct is coming, and amiibo Theory has never been wrong, I'm expecting a reveal late this month, around the 27th, and the Sakurai Presentation and release on the Same Day around the Week of the 26th, when the Banjo, Terry, and Male Byleth amiibo come out.

Got a source on that?

 

[JOJONumber691]

Whoa whoa whoa hold up WHAAAAAAAAT???

source NOW

Considering they need one soon, that's what's making me think there's probably a Direct coming at some time this month. https://careers.nintendo.com/job-openings/listing/200000007K.html?src=JB-10460

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Considering they need one soon, that's what's making me think there's probably a Direct coming at some time this month. https://careers.nintendo.com/job-openings/listing/200000007K.html?src=JB-10460

Man I almost meet the qualifications for that... except Mac knowledge.

Cinema 4D recommended though... wonder if Directs will be flashier now

 

[RouffWestie]

Maybe not. Isabelle uses the new design and she's not any taller than Villager...Wait, is she taller?

After doing some quick research, I've learned she's actually shorter than Villager in Ultimate.
I somehow never realized Villager's proportions were altered for Smash. Compared to Animal Crossing/WW/City Folk, he's got a much bigger torso. My mistake then.

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

Considering they need one soon, that's what's making me think there's probably a Direct coming at some time this month. https://careers.nintendo.com/job-openings/listing/200000007K.html?src=JB-10460

Isn’t that kinda proof Nintendo is currently unequipped to make a direct right now?
Explain it to me like I’m stupid pls.

 

[JOJONumber691]

Isn’t that kinda proof Nintendo is currently unequipped to make a direct right now?
Explain it to me like I’m stupid pls.

Kinda, but I do think there's currently plans. The Job Listing specifically requested Live Action Knowledge, which HEAVILY Suggests that this is a General Direct. Something is coming, and considering amiibo Theory I do think it's probably a General with Smash Info.