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Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

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RetrogamerMax

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Do you want to know why I don't exclusively talk about Miriam? Why I spent like 6 hours playing as Bloodless, having the time of my life rediscovering my favourite game all over again and only made a single memey post about her instead of arguing why she'd be fantastic and is happening? Because "I like them" and "I think they're happening" are two completely different things. This isn't a wishlist thread, it's a speculation thread where we try and speculate on who's in. I don't even get this narrative when people constantly talk about their unlikely favourites all the time, it just screams "My favourite isn't talked about positively so people must hate them". There's tons of characters I love that I'd laugh at if you tried convincing me they'd be playable, but you know what I think the biggest core of this whole **** is? I think you, and many others, are struggling to admit you were wrong. You were banking on something happening, it'd be super cool if it happened, but it didn't and you feel you've embarassed yourself. The reality is that we won't mind being wrong because this is all in good fun. 99% of this site would mock you if you said Sephiroth was happening, and what happened when he got confirmed? Overwhelmingly positive reception.
I never thought Sephiroth was likely either because I thought Square-Enix or Sakurai would want some other characters besides him. But I was always a Sephiroth supporter here:



See that? 2018.
 

Idon

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Honestly this is how the "fan-rule" term discussion feels to me.

1610322468385.png

I feel like in a thread about speculation, you'd have to talk about the things going both for and against a character.

There really is no need to respond to every doubt as if it was an arbitrary fan rule to be disregarded when that doubt is usually founded on some sort of precedence; precedence that when or if broken, people tend to re-evaluate their own beliefs. That's not moving goalposts, that's... speculation in a nutshell.
 
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cothero

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Pretty much this. I do think Mega Man's content is biased enough in favor of the classic series for a challenger pack to focus on one of its later subseries, but plenty of waves have featured the return of Mega Man costumes, so I won't count on a Mega Man newcomer happening.
But... But Mega Man X...

 

WeirdChillFever

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I mean... you could say that about practically any term this fanbase comes up with. And yet they don't seem to generate this much vitriol, really.

Honestly, I think you're seeing an extra layer of semantics that may not necessarily be there with the whole "underdog" thing.
Yes, but the shorthand usually goes for solid concepts defined the same across time and the size lf the fanbase. “Fan rule” is a shorthand for....”no i dont think so“? and has since then involved into a bogmire of “no u”. That’s different from terms like “deconfirmation” and “irrelevant” (even if the latter is overused, it’s stayed consistent in meaning)
 

N3ON

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Do you want to know why I don't exclusively talk about Miriam? Why I spent like 6 hours playing as Bloodless, having the time of my life rediscovering my favourite game all over again and only made a single memey post about her instead of arguing why she'd be fantastic and is happening? Because "I like them" and "I think they're happening" are two completely different things. This isn't a wishlist thread, it's a speculation thread where we try and speculate on who's in. I don't even get this narrative when people constantly talk about their unlikely favourites all the time, it just screams "My favourite isn't talked about positively so people must hate them". There's tons of characters I love that I'd laugh at if you tried convincing me they'd be playable, but you know what I think the biggest core of this whole **** is? I think you, and many others, are struggling to admit you were wrong. You were banking on something happening, it'd be super cool if it happened, but it didn't and you feel you've embarassed yourself. The reality is that we won't mind being wrong because this is all in good fun. 99% of this site would mock you if you said Sephiroth was happening, and what happened when he got confirmed? Overwhelmingly positive reception.
Somewhat related, but it's so weird how some people can't divorce hope and expectation. It's surreal.

Like, I've hoped for Isaac since pre-Brawl but the times I've actually expected him have been... never, really. The best shot I've ever thought he had was "maybe if we're lucky", and even then it's only been a handful of times where he seemed within the realm of plausible.

I continue to hope for characters like Goemon and NiGHTS and Klonoa even though they have no ****ing chance. I had hoped for Cloud and Master Chief before they became relevant subjects. I continue to hope for Bomberman even though he's been twice deconfirmed. Doesn't mean I expect them, nor do I talk about them if the conversation doesn't somehow pertain to them.

The more you broach a character, the more you tip past the point people want to hear about it, and then, fair or not, you just breed resentment towards that character, and effectively sabotage your hopes.
 

Cutie Gwen

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I never thought Sephiroth was likely either because I thought Square-Enix or Sakurai would want some other characters besides him. But I was always a Sephiroth supporter here:



See that? 2018.
I can tell you didn't actually read my post because my point with bringing up Sephiroth is that nobody thought he'd be likely yet was seen as a fantastic choice by many who doubted him. Because we aren't afraid of being wrong.
 
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TheCJBrine

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I don’t see fan rules in here very often, it’s just different views on speculative stuffs like it should be. I used to think some people were pushing fan rule stuff in the past, but I’ve learned and know that wasn’t true, besides maybe like one or two people who actually did push stuff as hard fact that should be faced despite no proof.

If you want real fan rules, go to Smash speculation on Twitter, heck even if you go to joke posts it shouldn’t take too long to find certain dudes being negative as heck and claiming different things as if they’re absolute fact and treating their own opinion as something superior that “should” happen and anyone who thinks differently is wrong. Even in some Youtube comments or those dudes who were so adamant on spirits disconfirming they gloated about it to the point of making threads or videos about it before Min Min shoved ramen down their smug faces.

And I don’t mean the normal dudes who argued and just thought spirits disconfirmed, I mean the actual smug as heck people who’d annoyingly push it in your face even if you were just being happy about a potential character or said nothing about chances at all.


A controversial topic + mathematical odds? For a second I thought we were talking about Ender Pearl drop rates, heh.
Dream
Cheats his Way In!
 

ForsakenM

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Honestly the funniest thing about the fanrule argument is that by calling something an argument a fanrule, you're forcing your own fanrule as an argument, meaning that as the counterargument is a fanrule, it's invalid
I mean, I AM one who has stated that any limit we set is a fan rule and Sakurai just breaks them all eventually anyway, so what is the point in the first place.

This would kill speculation though, and since no one can resist telling someone why another character has more or less of a chance, we either have this or we have nothing.
 

Adrianette Bromide

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I can tell you didn't actually read my post because my point with bringing up Sephiroth is that nobody thought he'd be likely yet was seen as a fantastic choice by many who doubted him. Because we aren't afraid of being wrong.
That reminds me when I made a bet with someone that Steve would be in Smash over Chief. He was dead set on Chief being the next Microsoft rep if there is one. Truth is I made that bet because I didn't want anyone to take anyone's money from eachother and I thought for sure that there would be no more Microsoft content. I just wanted to entertain him...

Yeah well things happened XD. He was a real champ though and I found another sillier way to pay back the bet.

Anyway point on. I doubted Steve ever since Banjo and boy was I glad I was wrong. I loved Minecraft, I just assumed that Banjo was it for Microsoft.
 

RetrogamerMax

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.

I can tell you didn't actually read my post because my point with bringing up Sephiroth is that nobody thought he'd be likely yet was seen as a fantastic choice by many who doubted him. Because we aren't afraid of being wrong.
I did read your post, I just said I was always a Sephiroth supporter. I know everyone thought he was unlikely before and so did I.
 

3BitSaurus

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Yes, but the shorthand usually goes for solid concepts defined the same across time and the size lf the fanbase. “Fan rule” is a shorthand for....”no i dont think so“? and has since then involved into a bogmire of “no u”. That’s different from terms like “deconfirmation” and “irrelevant” (even if the latter is overused, it’s stayed consistent in meaning)
Again, I think you're putting way too much stock into this. We aren't playing some 4D chess game with one another and Smash speculation isn't science.

Hell, it's perfectly fine to admit X or Y precedent was unsubstantiated all along and change the way you think. And I say this as someone who used to think that Bayonetta couldn't be translated to Smash. It was a flimsy idea and I (and others) were wrong about it.

It's not the end of the world, it's speculation about a party fighting game.
 

ForsakenM

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That reminds me when I made a bet with someone that Steve would be in Smash over Chief. He was dead set on Chief being the next Microsoft rep if there is one. Truth is I made that bet because I didn't want anyone to take anyone's money from eachother and I thought for sure that there would be no more Microsoft content. I just wanted to entertain him...

Yeah well things happened XD. He was a real champ though and I found another sillier way to pay back the bet.

Anyway point on. I doubted Steve ever since Banjo and boy was I glad I was wrong. I loved Minecraft, I just assumed that Banjo was it for Microsoft.
So I have a small group I speculate with outside of here, and honestly we've been on the right page but the wrong character this whole pass now.

We were confident in a Nintendo character being first, but we thought it would be the Wah and it turns out it was the Ramen Shiller.

We were confident in a Microsoft rep and most of us were convinced Steve would be the perfect costume to come with Chief. Then everyone else thought it would be the other way around, but I knew better than that: if Steve is too big of a deal to be a costume, so is Chief.

Then we were confident a Square rep was next and of course I wanted Geno but it turned out to be Sephiroth, someone we had all written off stupidly as Cloud can't go anywhere without him.

What I have learned is that if my group is certain on a character, we've got the right company at least but likely not the character! XD Also, I've learned that it's stupid to write off characters for dumb reasons, like Steve because Banjo got in, or Sephiroth because Cloud shoulders FF on his own when they are always together and is the PERFECT excuse for more FF content...or, you know, writing off characters because their already-contracted Mii Costumes have returned with little changes.

EDIT: If anyone is wondering, our small group isn't really confident on any single character at the moment. I think Crash is coming, some say Lloyd, some say Dante. We just haven't got enough information recently to pinpoint what character seems like the biggest shoe in. Nintendo really cracked down.
 
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Cutie Gwen

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Somewhat related, but it's so weird how some people can't divorce hope and expectation. It's surreal.

Like, I've hoped for Isaac since pre-Brawl but the times I've actually expected him have been... never, really. The best shot I've ever thought he had was "maybe if we're lucky", and even then it's only been a handful of times where he seemed within the realm of plausible.

I continue to hope for characters like Goemon and NiGHTS and Klonoa even though they have no ****ing chance. I had hoped for Cloud and Master Chief before they became relevant subjects. I continue to hope for Bomberman even though he's been twice deconfirmed. Doesn't mean I expect them, nor do I talk about them if the conversation doesn't somehow pertain to them.

The more you broach a character, the more you tip past the point people want to hear about it, and then, fair or not, you just breed resentment towards that character, and effectively sabotage your hopes.
That's a really common mindset I've seen here. You think my favourite isn't likely? Clearly you hate them and spend your free time crushing pictures of them and want to be proven right so you can gloat like an evil *******! What's that? You like the character a lot despite saying that? W-well, you're clearly still a bad person for trying to shoot down my hopes and dreams! Yeah, you're probably faking being a fan! You can't fool me, no sir!

I've genuinely seen some rather toxic cases of people being chased out of support threads and that for not outright expecting the character to happen.
That reminds me when I made a bet with someone that Steve would be in Smash over Chief. He was dead set on Chief being the next Microsoft rep if there is one. Truth is I made that bet because I didn't want anyone to take anyone's money from eachother and I thought for sure that there would be no more Microsoft content. I just wanted to entertain him...

Yeah well things happened XD. He was a real champ though and I found another sillier way to pay back the bet.

Anyway point on. I doubted Steve ever since Banjo and boy was I glad I was wrong. I loved Minecraft, I just assumed that Banjo was it for Microsoft.
Meanwhile I made a bet with a guy who kept insisting Napoleon would be playable by telling him to bet cash money if he actually thought Napoleon was a lock. Come November 1st 2018 and I got 40 bucks
I did read your post, I just said I was always a Sephiroth supporter. I know everyone thought he was unlikely before and so did I.
Then I'm wondering what the real problem is, because that's outright undeniable proof that most people here will gladly be wrong as long as at the end of the day, we get cool ****. I'm pretty sure plenty of people here would be excited for Geno but don't think he's happening and don't want to be told he's still super likely because you said so.
writing off characters because their already-contracted Mii Costumes have returned with little changes.
Last I checked contracts need renewing, you can't go "Yeah I want this character as a costume and this song to put in their trailer for it" for multiple games 5 years apart.
 

SpecterFlower

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Huh, didn't know that. While we won't know why a RH character was left out until Sakurai feels comfortable with disclosing the reason, chances are that RH ran into some very real difficulties when designing the character. I can't imagine that the stage / music would present any issues unless there's some rights issue that I'm not aware of.
Music Right's could be problematic but Tsunku would be more than willing to put his Music in Smash i'm guessing so idk.
 

Cutie Gwen

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If you guys wanna stop arguing for even a few minutes, we're rating Rex, Wooper, and a Gen 8 Mon in RTC today.
sigh I know I've made my opinions on a specific character here very wellknown so might as well repost my writeup so people can see it.


Wooper is a physical god that has blessed us mortals, with so much joy I'm not going to use percentages. We always hear the buzzword 'moveset potential' but Wooper has so much of it they can use Ice Punch despite not having any arms, imagine what else they are capable of? As a higher tier deity, they have the choice to absorb all water attacks, ignore stat boosts or make you cower so much in their godly presencd that you can't even kill yourself to escape. This also means that Wooper is the first known cure to severe depression, they will comfort all their worshipers, praise be to the constantly smiling eldritch god, being easily one of the best gen 2 mons and although they'd still be the 11th pokemon, they bring some diversity as gen 2 only has a rushed clone known as Pichu, the stupid idiot baby. Wooper may very well be the best being in the history of mankind, truly a fantastic potential addition. I give them a 1.0 out of 10
 

SharkLord

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Honestly this is how the "fan-rule" term discussion feels to me.

View attachment 298858

I feel like in a thread about speculation, you'd have to talk about the things going both for and against a character.

There really is no need to respond to every doubt as if it was an arbitrary fan rule to be disregarded when that doubt is usually founded on some sort of precedence; precedence that when or if broken, people tend to re-evaluate their own beliefs. That's not moving goalposts, that's... speculation in a nutshell.
You make a good point and I wholeheartedly agree but did you really need to use the Wojaks?
 

WeirdChillFever

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Again, I think you're putting way too much stock into this. We aren't playing some 4D chess game with one another and Smash speculation isn't science.

Hell, it's perfectly fine to admit X or Y precedent was unsubstantiated all along and change the way you think. And I say this as someone who used to think that Bayonetta couldn't be translated to Smash. It was a flimsy idea and I (and others) were wrong about it.

It's not the end of the world, it's speculation about a party fighting game.
What would make discussion and fun antithetical? I think it’s fun. I think there’s a difference between the factors, I like ascribing deeper semantic meanings to words. That’s fun to me. I wouldn’t mind a laissez-faire speculation and it’s not the end of the world that disagreeing got a snappier name, but it doesn‘t make me a buzzkill for analyizing it.
 

3BitSaurus

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Do you think Monster Hunter will be in smash to help promote Monster Hunter Rise?
To be fair, while Rise would be a great opportunity for some sweet cross-promotion, if MH got in as CP9 it would be more like a series getting in via its own merits while also doing so with good timing.

So not really for the sake of promotion only. At best we'd get a stage and an alt based on Rise - kinda like what happened with Dragon Quest.
 

SmashCraftNin1064

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I heard some leaks about that Monster Hunter was almost in Smash, but they decide to go with Byleth with his/her skillset being similar to MH protagonist.
 

ForsakenM

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Last I checked contracts need renewing, you can't go "Yeah I want this character as a costume and this song to put in their trailer for it" for multiple games 5 years apart.
And pray tell, what makes you think they can't renegotiate for something like that and still negotiate for the character to come as a Challenger Pack later on?

Remember, ALL the costumes that are third party have returned thus far, with us only missing three and at this point we are just waiting for the when not the if.

This would mean they purposely made these renegotiation in a way that will once again make both Nintendo and the respective IP owner money again with little effort put in on their part. In essence, recycling content to get more bucks in their pocket. I'm not sure about you, but I don't think I would negotiate for all of these costumes to come back very early on and then allow that to limit who I can negotiate for later on.

Besides, the idea that a skin for a customizable character pushes out a character's chances has always been stupid. Other games have color palettes or skins/costumes that reference other characters that are already in the game/come in later as DLC. As I mentioned, the only real concern for a character is a Deluxe/Premium Costume due to the clear effort to make them like like the character as much as possible and potentially coming with music just like a character does. Anything else to me means to not give up and keep pushing until the DLC is over.

By the way, you guys do know that at this rate with the likelihood of another character reveal coming very soon, we are going to beat the pants off that December 2021 release window, right? This feels awful familiar to my timeline theory I posted in the Geno Thread over a year ago in which my data gathering on release info lead me to conclude we would get a second Fighter's Pass months ahead of when it happened when everyone doubted it to the high heavens. Huh...it almost seems like history is repeating itself...
 

SpecterFlower

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To be fair, while Rise would be a great opportunity for some sweet cross-promotion, if MH got in as CP9 it would be more like a series getting in via its own merits while also doing so with good timing.

So not really for the sake of promotion only. At best we'd get a stage and an alt based on Rise - kinda like what happened with Dragon Quest.
I hope the palamute could at least make it in, they are ridiculously adorable (and much more helpful than palicoes)
 

Cutie Gwen

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I heard some leaks about that Monster Hunter was almost in Smash, but they decide to go with Byleth with his/her skillset being similar to MH protagonist.
When the source of the rumour doesn't have the confidence to fully support it but rather takes it with a grain of salt himself alongside multiple things not making any sense with the rumour, it shouldn't be given the benefit of doubt
 

Dalek_Kolt

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The more you broach a character, the more you tip past the point people want to hear about it, and then, fair or not, you just breed resentment towards that character, and effectively sabotage your hopes.
The eternal dilemma of wanting a character no one else talks about. Do you spam the topic until everyone is sick of it, or back off and watch your dreams fade into obscurity?
It's why outside of directly answering people's "who do you want most" posts and the obligatory anniversary/upcoming game topic, whenever I try bringing Ganon or Dark Matter back into the conversation I try focusing on their potential movesets or whatever fanart/fan models I've made for them. Like, yea I'm pushing an agenda of who I want, but at least I'm trying to creatively contribute to the conversation instead of running mental gymnastics on how Gilgamesh can still win.
 

Cutie Gwen

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And pray tell, what makes you think they can't renegotiate for something like that and still negotiate for the character to come as a Challenger Pack later on?

Remember, ALL the costumes that are third party have returned thus far, with us only missing three and at this point we are just waiting for the when not the if.

This would mean they purposely made these renegotiation in a way that will once again make both Nintendo and the respective IP owner money again with little effort put in on their part. In essence, recycling content to get more bucks in their pocket. I'm not sure about you, but I don't think I would negotiate for all of these costumes to come back very early on and then allow that to limit who I can negotiate for later on.

Besides, the idea that a skin for a customizable character pushes out a character's chances has always been stupid. Other games have color palettes or skins/costumes that reference other characters that are already in the game/come in later as DLC. As I mentioned, the only real concern for a character is a Deluxe/Premium Costume due to the clear effort to make them like like the character as much as possible and potentially coming with music just like a character does. Anything else to me means to not give up and keep pushing until the DLC is over.

By the way, you guys do know that at this rate with the likelihood of another character reveal coming very soon, we are going to beat the pants off that December 2021 release window, right? This feels awful familiar to my timeline theory I posted in the Geno Thread over a year ago in which my data gathering on release info lead me to conclude we would get a second Fighter's Pass months ahead of when it happened when everyone doubted it to the high heavens. Huh...it almost seems like history is repeating itself...
You're implying negotiations for Mii costumes and the licensing for the songs used for the characters are made so far in advance that the characters aren't locked in yet. I don't trust someone who admitted to changing their mindset on speculation because it meant the outcome was undesirable for legal stuff, no offence.
 

N3ON

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The eternal dilemma of wanting a character no one else talks about. Do you spam the topic until everyone is sick of it, or back off and watch your dreams fade into obscurity?
It's why outside of directly answering people's "who do you want most" posts and the obligatory anniversary/upcoming game topic, whenever I try bringing Ganon or Dark Matter back into the conversation I try focusing on their potential movesets or whatever fanart/fan models I've made for them. Like, yea I'm pushing an agenda of who I want, but at least I'm trying to creatively contribute to the conversation instead of running mental gymnastics on how Gilgamesh can still win.
It is a dilemma of wanting a character that doesn't make huge waves in the fanbase. Hopefully that's at least offset by not holding out huge expectations for them, which sounds defeatist, but at least keeps you sane.

And I agree, that's the most positive contribution one can make in that situation - at least providing something cool in regards to the character. But always in moderation. Probably is the most effective way a single person can net new supporters too.

Basically the opposite of trying to fit every "leak" and every theory to them. That gets old real fast.
 

SharkLord

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Do you think Monster Hunter will be in smash to help promote Monster Hunter Rise?
I think it would certainly help their chances, but they're also getting a big boost from being frickin' Monster Hunter. They'll probably use the Rathalos Armor as the default over the blue Japanese-styled gear used in Rise's promotion; Remember, Rise isn't even out yet, while DQ11 had already been released when Hero was added and they were just promoting an updated port. I could definitely see the Wirebug used as recovery, at least-The chance is just too good to pass up on-But I think the representation will be more general rather than Rise centric.
 

3BitSaurus

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What would make discussion and fun antithetical? I think it’s fun. I think there’s a difference between the factors, I like ascribing deeper semantic meanings to words. That’s fun to me. I wouldn’t mind a laissez-faire speculation and it’s not the end of the world that disagreeing got a snappier name, but it doesn‘t make me a buzzkill for analyizing it.
Fair enough, but "ascribing deeper semantics" can also make you miss someone's actual point. If someone misuses a term, there's an error with their argument, not the term itself.

I've seen a lot of people dismiss actual arguments because "fan rule", but I've also seen one too many people - especially on Twitter and Youtube, as TheCJBrine TheCJBrine pointed out - go into the whole "if it hasn't happened yet, it won't EVER happen" train. Y'know, the "too bigs", "too irrelevant" stuff. And in both cases, the argument itself is not the problem, it's how people chose to apply them. That's all there is to it.

...Off-topic, but I'm still laughing at someone's reaction to that 4chan rumor Rie posted a few pages back. Guy said he'd "cut his **** off" if it was true and ngl, part of me finds it amusing.
 

WeirdChillFever

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Fair enough, but "ascribing deeper semantics" can also make you miss someone's actual point. If someone misuses a term, there's an error with their argument, not the term itself.

I've seen a lot of people dismiss actual arguments because "fan rule", but I've also seen one too many people - especially on Twitter and Youtube, as TheCJBrine TheCJBrine pointed out - go into the whole "if it hasn't happened yet, it won't EVER happen" train. Y'know, the "too bigs", "too irrelevant" stuff. And in both cases, the argument itself is not the problem, it's how people chose to apply them. That's all there is to it.

...Off-topic, but I'm still laughing at someone's reaction to that 4chan rumor Rie posted a few pages back. Guy said he'd "cut his **** off" if it was true and ngl, part of me finds it amusing.
Yeah, there’s a difference between the definition of a word and its usage (although Wittgenstein would shoot me on sight if I said that) and in definition there is nothing wrong with a term like “fan rule“ existing, but it’s also a term that might see use as stopgap for actual discussion even if its usage was meant for the more nuanced take of “I believe this factor which you see as an unovercomable obstacle might be more lenient than the larger fanbase might believe”.
 

3BitSaurus

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I hope the palamute could at least make it in, they are ridiculously adorable (and much more helpful than palicoes)
Honestly, after playing the Rise demo, I'm actually stumped as to whether or not that would be a thing... in fact, I'm stumped as to how a Hunter would even play.

Like, if I could point to one character as having too much moveset potential, Hunter would be a strong contender. Even if I'm not particularly rooting for it, I'm curious to see what Sakurai's take would be.

Also, Palico Mii Swordfighter, plz.
 

SharkLord

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Honestly, after playing the Rise demo, I'm actually stumped as to whether or not that would be a thing... in fact, I'm stumped as to how a Hunter would even play.

Like, if I could point to one character as having too much moveset potential, Hunter would be a strong contender. Even if I'm not particularly rooting for it, I'm curious to see what Sakurai's take would be.

Also, Palico Mii Swordfighter, plz.
Probably the most well-known weapons; Based on my (admittedly limited) knowledge I'd say the Dual Blades for tilts, Greatsword for smashes, and the Insect Glaive for aerials
 

3BitSaurus

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Probably the most well-known weapons; Based on my (admittedly limited) knowledge I'd say the Dual Blades for tilts, Greatsword for smashes, and the Insect Glaive for aerials
I've seen a decent amount of Charge Blade users online, so maybe that could be their F-Smash?

I'd also love it if Hunting Horn was one of their specials. Kinda like Dancing Blade, but with more lag and each input nets you a buff if completed.
 

Cutie Gwen

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I've seen a decent amount of Charge Blade users online, so maybe that could be their F-Smash?

I'd also love it if Hunting Horn was one of their specials. Kinda like Dancing Blade, but with more lag and each input nets you a buff if completed.
Team battles with MonHun just end up being the Trumpet Guy meme and you know what, that's fine by me
 
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