Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[TheCJBrine]

Personally, I think if a character from a franchise who got a mii costume in Pass 1 is coming, it could still be that character who got a mii costume. However, that depends on when Pass 2 was finalized, since they could’ve chosen the character after already releasing the mii costume. Though, you’d think the costume would indicate the franchise isn’t getting another character if that isn’t the case, since you’d think the costume(s) would be held back, and so-

yeah this is too confusing to think about, I’m just gonna personally think Tails etc. have a chance if Eggman does as does Sans & Papyrus if Frisk / Chara does etc. etc.

Of course, I would also love Eggman, Frisk, Chara etc. and I don’t think the argument against people rooting for them because they think they’re more likely has the best merit since the demand for their most-wanted was still existent, they still love the other characters and want them too anyway, and some continue pushing for all of them including whoever they started with regardless.

My most wanted Undertale character is Sans maybe with Papyrus alongside him as a tag-team or Sans being lazy in the background but helping with attacks, but woukd I be disappointed if we got Frisk & Chara? Heck nah lol I’d be very happy, same if we got Shadow or Eggman instead of Tails even if I think Tails being next would be cool and makes sense since he’s Sonic’s best pal and being there since Sonic 2 (though Eggman of course appeared before Tails, being there since the beginning, so he makes sense too).

 

[SharkLord]

Like I said, we don't make the rules, Sakurai does. And unless he says something, non of our words mean jack **** including mine. Only Sakurai's words matter because he makes the game.

The problem with that mindset is that it means we have no reason to even be speculating on SmashBoards dot com in the first place, and I'm not in the mood to think existentially.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Well, I'm just saying over and over again the community is wrong.

Okay. You want a medal or something for it?

Pointing fingers at people and telling them they're wrong for an arbitrary reason like "some fan rules have been proven wrong so they ALL must be wrong" accomplishes absolutely nothing. It's predicated on a hasty generalization and brings nothing productive to the conversation; I'd honestly say you might as well just not post in the first place.

At the very least there's no need to post the same video 5 times and harping on about it like its the magnum opus of Smash Speculation media.

 

[Otoad64]

in my opinion some "fan rules" make more sense then others, like the idea of assist trophies deconfirming makes more sense then spirits deconfirming based on other things like how they clearly don't want the same character in multiple places, like for example the knuckles assist tropy not being summonable on green hill, and the whole toon link switching with alfonzo thing.

Sure they could just disable the assist when the character is being played as, but being deconfirmed because there is already a model in the game with an important function or being deconfirmed because they went out of their way to add them in another form after the game released makes more sense then being deconfirmed because there is a png in the game.

that's just what I think though.

 

[RetrogamerMax]

In the past two posts you've ignored everything but my final sentence.

Well, I already told the others here that Sakurai makes the rules so there's your answer if you want one.

 

[Guynamednelson]

important function

Is the function really that important if background cameos that don't affect gameplay take priority over ATs?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Like I said, we don't make the rules, Sakurai does. And unless he says something, non of our words mean jack **** including mine. Only Sakurai's words matter because he makes the game.

I have a genuine question and I really hope you answer this. If you truly believe all our words, including yours, mean jack because only Sakurai's the one actually making the game...

Why are you trying to change our minds on this? Why even bother making an argument? Why even bother going on a thread entirely about speculation? If I felt something was completely meaningless, I wouldn't do it

 

[Mushroomguy12]

They grow up so fast.

【きょうの一枚】
1月11日は成人の日。あの頃の僕と 今の僕。#スマブラSP #スマブラ画 #成人の日 pic.twitter.com/fgKlaPfT33

— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) January 10, 2021

Translation by Google:

[Today's piece] January 11th is Coming-of-Age Day. I was back then and I am now.
#Smash Bros. SP #Smash Bros. #Coming-of-Age Day

 

[Idon]

Actual image of Dante breaking all the fan rules.

 

[Otoad64]

Is the function really that important if background cameos that don't affect gameplay take priority over ATs?

I guess, what I mean is that background cameos don't neccesarily deconfirm as seen with toon link

basically if they appear on the battlefield I think they're deconfirmed

 

[RetrogamerMax]

The problem with that mindset is that it means we have no reason to even be speculating on SmashBoards dot com in the first place, and I'm not in the mood to think existentially.

What's the point in speculating if we can't discuss about the characters we really want? Talking just about 5 or 6 characters that the community sees as likely get's annoying after awhile.

Okay. You want a medal or something for it?

Pointing fingers at people and telling them they're wrong for an arbitrary reason like "some fan rules have been proven wrong so they ALL must be wrong" accomplishes absolutely nothing. It's predicated on a hasty generalization and brings nothing productive to the conversation; I'd honestly say you might as well just not post in the first place.

At the very least there's no need to post the same video 5 times and harping on about it like its the magnum opus of Smash Speculation media.

Like I said, Sakurai makes the rules not us. We'll eventually get Assist Trophy promotion whether in this game or the next as well as a 3rd party IP double dip in the same Pass. Double dip meaning two franchises from the same company in the same Pass.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Why are we still here?

Just to suffer?

Every night, I can feel my leg... And my arm...even my fingers...The body I've lost...the comrades I've lost...won't stop hurting...it's like they're all still there.

You feel it, too, don't you?

 

[PK-remling Fire]

Like I said, we don't make the rules, Sakurai does. And unless he says something, non of our words mean jack **** including mine. Only Sakurai's words matter because he makes the game.

He might've not verbally said anything about Geno, but the fact that there is a mii costume says a lot. Tell me, does it make any business sense to create and release a paid mii costume, only to develop and reveal the same character later in the same game? It would only make the effort going into that DLC costume that nobody's going to buy wasted dev time, when they could've instead used that time on other assets.

You're free to disregard fanrules as much as you like, hell, I don't like some of them myself. But logic needs to be taken into account as well.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

We didn’t like how we only talked about six characters here so for some variety I’m beating the dead horse over there that is alive if you close your eyes and ears and go lalalalala.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

What's the point in speculating if we can't discuss about the characters we really want? Talking just about 5 or 6 characters that the community sees as likely get's annoying after awhile.



Like I said, Sakurai makes the rules not us. We'll eventually get Assist Trophy promotion whether in this game or the next as well as a 3rd party IP double dip in the same Pass.

People often talk about who they want the most. Just last night we literally had "Who do you think is likely" alongside "Who do you want".


What makes you any more of an authority on this than literally anyone else? Like, how do you know specifically Sakurai agrees with every single argument and thought you have but not ours?

 

[Louie G.]

For what it's worth, I do think the community will be thrown for a loop at least once or twice more against something that many people falsely assumed to be the case. We've seen this happen plenty of times already, and even with characters like Sephiroth who have toppled expectations and barriers we see people trying to apply conditions such as the amount of content FF had as justification for why he's an exception, etc etc. Bottom line, we never learn.

But yeah, the word fanrule is tossed around a lot more than it should be. I've seen it used to disqualify points in a character's favor, to disqualify arguments against a character... against genuine concerns about a character's reasons or ability to be chosen... obviously nobody should be acting like they know everything, but it's okay to look at things critically and come to a conclusion that some things may not happen for any variety of reasons.

And yeah, Nintendo and Sakurai can do whatever the hell they want. At this point though, with stuff like mii costumes (or post release spirit events, for that matter) it becomes really difficult to justify why they would bother to put out content referencing a specific character when plans to fully implement that character are well underway.

You can imagine like, an elaborate fakeout for characters like Sans and Travis (trust me, I have), but at the end of the day it's very safe to come to the logical conclusion that they're not gonna make you pay for a character's costume when they're just going to drop that character later on. Sakurai has already made it clear back in Smash 4 that costumes are consolation prizes that are supposed to help you feel like you're playing as the real thing, at least as close as you possibly can. Until proven otherwise, that isn't so much a fanrule as it is taking Sakurai at his word until he changes his mind.

What's the point in speculating if we can't discuss about the characters we really want? Talking just about 5 or 6 characters that the community sees as likely get's annoying after awhile.

I agree, which is why you can start up those conversations as you wish. I mean, nearly every character reaches the point where we constantly talk about them on the basis that people genuinely want to see them and will bring them into the conversation / find evidence for why they may happen. This is how community frontrunners are crafted in the first place.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

The Smash community is wrong, unlike the Geno community, which has been nothing but winning since Brawl

 

[RetrogamerMax]

I have a genuine question and I really hope you answer this. If you truly believe all our words, including yours, mean jack because only Sakurai's the one actually making the game...

Why are you trying to change our minds on this? Why even bother making an argument? Why even bother going on a thread entirely about speculation? If I felt something was completely meaningless, I wouldn't do it

You guys were speculating about how fan rules were just a term non believers use that didn't have any ground before I walked in here.

 

[Cosmic77]

Will we ever reach a day where someone can use the term "fan rule" and not offend someone?

Seriously, why does this matter so much? Pretty much every time I see someone say it, someone takes it personally and starts a conversation that usually begins with, "Not everyone believed that!", "It's not a fan rule, it's speculation/observation/precedence!", or my personal favorite, "Why do you care so much about being right!?"

Not everyone means it as an insult. From what I've seen, most people use it because it's faster than saying, "This character was often dismissed for very stupid reasons". Might not be the most appropriate word in some scenarios, but I think it gets their point across.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Will we ever reach a day where someone can use the term "fan rule" and not offend someone?

Seriously, why does this matter so much? Pretty much every time I see someone say it, someone takes it personally and starts a conversation that usually begins with, "Not everyone believed that!", "It's not a fan rule, it's speculation/observation/precedence!", or my personal favorite, "Why do you care so much about being right!?"

Not everyone means it as an insult. From what I've seen, most people use it because it's faster than saying, "This character was often dismissed for very stupid reasons". Might not be the most appropriate word in some scenarios, but I think it gets their point across.

Fan rule is about the factor itself, “This character is dismissed unfairly” is about the assessment of a character and thus about specific situations, which a broad term like fan rule can never cover the nuance of. I think it’s important to make that difference clear lest it becomes muddy.

 

[Deleted member]

All rules are meant to be broken. Sakurai says he isn't gonna add Iron Man or Goku, but they're going to be in Smash because he said they wouldn't.


That's my thought process when we talk fan rules as a subject. The only way for it to die as a term is when Iron Man or Goku is added. Then, there's no boundaries to why a character can't be added anymore.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

What's the point in speculating if we can't discuss about the characters we really want? Talking just about 5 or 6 characters that the community sees as likely get's annoying after awhile.



Like I said, Sakurai makes the rules not us. We'll eventually get Assist Trophy promotion whether in this game or the next as well as a 3rd party IP double dip in the same Pass. Double dip meaning two franchises from the same company in the same Pass.

a) There's a difference between "discussing a character you really want" and "discussing a character that's been thrown in the woodchipper." The latter has to come with a certain sense of awareness that seems to be lacking in this conversation.

b) This mindset of "sorry I don't make the rules" is both fallacious (because we don't know the exact rules, and as such have to guess at them) and incredibly reductionist as it just shuts down any sort of speculation whatsoever. Literally why bother at this point?

Are you that desperate to still believe Geno has a chance?

 

[N3ON]

They grow up so fast.

【きょうの一枚】
1月11日は成人の日。あの頃の僕と 今の僕。#スマブラSP #スマブラ画 #成人の日 pic.twitter.com/fgKlaPfT33

— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) January 10, 2021

Translation by Google:

[Today's piece] January 11th is Coming-of-Age Day. I was back then and I am now.
#Smash Bros. SP #Smash Bros. #Coming-of-Age Day

Two games later and this is still the best Kirby hat.

Second is Kirby³

 

[RetrogamerMax]

a) There's a difference between "discussing a character you really want" and "discussing a character that's been thrown in the woodchipper."

b) This mindset of "sorry I don't make the rules" is both fallacious (because we don't know the exact rules, and as such have to guess at them) and incredibly reductionist as it just shuts down any sort of speculation whatsoever. Literally why bother at this point?

Are you that desperate to still believe Geno has a chance?

I'm not even talking about Geno I'm talking about characters that people see as unlikely or deconfirmed overall.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

You guys were speculating about how fan rules were just a term non believers use that didn't have any ground before I walked in here.

You walked in here and screamed "fanrules are fanrules" over and over again without anything beyond "Sakurai's in charge of the game". If you actually paid attention, people were talking about how a specific fanrule was only considered a fanrule by someone when they didn't like the reality that it was a solid argument, specifically, an argument endorsed by Sakurai was being called a fanrule. People then talked about how 'fanrule' is a gotcha moment like the infamous Matt Bors comic.

It doesn't prove anything nor does it does disprove anything, all it does is have a guy say "You're wrong because I said so" as if they're the authority on speculation

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

I'm not even talking about Geno I'm talking about characters that people see as unlikely or deconfirmed overall.

So Geno then.

You literally have four Geno hats in your avatar it's okay to just say you want Geno without extending it to every other character or pushing a contrived argument onto others. You just gotta be realistic about it and accept that it's an even larger uphill battle then before, and is, in all likelihood, an impossibility.

 

[RetrogamerMax]

So Geno then.

You literally have the Geno hat avatar it's okay to just say you want Geno without extending it to every other character or pushing a contrived argument onto others. You just have to accept the reality that it's an even larger uphill battle then before, and is, in all likelihood, an impossibility.

I only hanged out there because of how awesome Fatman is. I'm more of a Fatman fan than a Geno fan you silly guy.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

Okay guys, can we quit it? Everyone's ganging up on R RetrogamerMax and it honestly feels like bullying now, so let's stop.

 

[N3ON]

I only hanged out there because of how awesome Fatman is. I'm more of a Fatman fan than a Geno fan you silly guy.

that's so much worse

 

[3BitSaurus]

Will we ever reach a day where someone can use the term "fan rule" and not offend someone?

Seriously, why does this matter so much? Pretty much every time I see someone say it, someone takes it personally and starts a conversation that usually begins with, "Not everyone believed that!", "It's not a fan rule, it's speculation/observation/precedence!", or my personal favorite, "Why do you care so much about being right!?"

Not everyone means it as an insult. From what I've seen, most people use it because it's faster than saying, "This character was often dismissed for very stupid reasons". Might not be the most appropriate word in some scenarios, but I think it gets their point across.

That, and there's a difference between using precedence to make a point and outright dismissing something because of an arbitrary requirement.

Whenever someone uses the term "fanrule", they're most likely referring to the latter. So there's no reason for people to take it personally and turn it into a flamewar, really.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Let it be known that a 1% chance is still a chance. Just because something happened doesn’t mean it was never unlikely. That’s not how statistics work

 

[RetrogamerMax]

that's so much worse

Is it really?

 

[Eldrake]

The funny thing is that the spirit theory, which was called a fan rule by people who didn't like it... was completely right about FP1 not having spirited characters as fighters. Obviously Min Min shows that base game spirits are fair game now, but there's a reason why people are treating the current spirit events as disconfirmation. It's called precedence.

 

[Cosmic77]

Fan rule is about the factor itself, “This character is dismissed unfairly” is about the assessment of a character and thus about specific situations, which a broad term like fan rule can never cover the nuance of. I think it’s important to make that difference clear lest it becomes muddy.

Yeah, I'm gonna be honest, I don't think half the people here are really that deep. I think it's literally as simple as someone believing a generally accepted theory is dumb, they say "fan rule" without giving a second thought, and then someone takes it personally because they feel like they're under attack.

I don't know why this thread has become increasingly more hostile to the term compared to two years ago, but it's really silly IMO.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

The funny thing is that the spirit theory, which was called a fan rule by people who didn't like it... was completely right about FP1 not having spirited characters as fighters. Obviously Min Min shows that base game spirits are fair game now, but there's a reason why people are treating the current spirit events as disconfirmation. It's called precedence.

Okay but this "precedence" what-have-you disconfirms the character I want so clearly it MUST be a fanrule and therefore MUST be false.

Occam's Razor? Who's she? Never heard of her.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I'm not even talking about Geno I'm talking about characters that people see as unlikely or deconfirmed overall.

Do you want to know why I don't exclusively talk about Miriam? Why I spent like 6 hours playing as Bloodless, having the time of my life rediscovering my favourite game all over again and only made a single memey post about her instead of arguing why she'd be fantastic and is happening? Because "I like them" and "I think they're happening" are two completely different things. This isn't a wishlist thread, it's a speculation thread where we try and speculate on who's in. I don't even get this narrative when people constantly talk about their unlikely favourites all the time, it just screams "My favourite isn't talked about positively so people must hate them". There's tons of characters I love that I'd laugh at if you tried convincing me they'd be playable, but you know what I think the biggest core of this whole **** is? I think you, and many others, are struggling to admit you were wrong. You were banking on something happening, it'd be super cool if it happened, but it didn't and you feel you've embarassed yourself. The reality is that we won't mind being wrong because this is all in good fun. 99% of this site would mock you if you said Sephiroth was happening, and what happened when he got confirmed? Overwhelmingly positive reception.

 

[RetrogamerMax]

I don't know why this thread has become increasingly more hostile to the term compared to two years ago, but it's really silly IMO.

Because more and more said fan rules are constantly being broken again and again after certain character inclusions. It's getting harder for people to move the goalpost as time goes on.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Yeah, I'm gonna be honest, I don't think half the people here are really that deep. I think it's literally as simple as someone believing a generally accepted theory is dumb, they say "fan rule" without giving a second thought, and then someone takes it personally because they feel like they're under attack.

I don't know why this thread has become increasingly more hostile to the term compared to two years ago, but it's really silly IMO.

Because it’s a cheap “no u” card and the fact even the thought process of “nah i dont buy that” apparently needs a snappy buzzword variant, generally unaccompanied by any other critical thought, is something different than being the noble underdog that some users of the term pretend it is.

 

[Adrianette Bromide]

A controversial topic + mathematical odds? For a second I thought we were talking about Ender Pearl drop rates, heh.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Because it’s a cheap “no u” card and the fact even the thought process of “nah i dont buy that” apparently needs a snappy buzzword variant, generally unaccompanied by any other critical thought, is something different than being the noble underdog that some users of the term pretend it is.

I mean... you could say that about practically any term this fanbase comes up with. And yet they don't seem to generate this much vitriol, really.

Honestly, I think you're seeing an extra layer of semantics that may not necessarily be there with the whole "underdog" thing.