Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[KneeOfJustice99]

I was working more on my prospective character lineup for a hypothetical next Smash (down to 45 veterans and 12-15 newcomers) and a thought occurred to me: what if the next Smash cut all third party content to make room for more Nintendo content and eliminate the need for negotiation with outside companies?

I think that it would probably have much less people in the general gaming sphere excited, but I can imagine some Nintendo fans being pleased given that some character picks that, realistically, wouldn't have been feasible before - a good example being classic characters such as Mach Rider, Sukapon and Takamaru. Business-wise, I can see why it would be easier, but I can't see them cutting it all simply because it would be a bad business decision for things like marketing.

Though, this does beg the question - in a situation where they try and get rid of as many third-party characters as possible, who do you think would remain? Personally, my own take is that Sonic, Mega Man and Pac-Man would be the remaining ones.

 

[SpectreJordan]

I think that it would probably have much less people in the general gaming sphere excited, but I can imagine some Nintendo fans being pleased given that some character picks that, realistically, wouldn't have been feasible before - a good example being classic characters such as Mach Rider, Sukapon and Takamaru. Business-wise, I can see why it would be easier, but I can't see them cutting it all simply because it would be a bad business decision for things like marketing.

Though, this does beg the question - in a situation where they try and get rid of as many third-party characters as possible, who do you think would remain? Personally, my own take is that Sonic, Mega Man and Pac-Man would be the remaining ones.

Sonic, Pac-Man, Ryu, Mega Man & maybe Cloud. I think Ryu/Mega Man are a package deal now especially since SF is bigger than MM & Capcom will put Ryu in literally anything.

 

[Theguy123]

A user by the name of Tye on Resetera made this neat little infograph

Basically all of the retail and non-licensed Nintendo published games released from 2017-2019, and their representation in Smash.

nintendo out here be doing Luigi mansion 3 dirty by not giving it its spirit event when the game itself has sold more than 3D all stars, Mario galaxy 2, 3D world on the switch and wii u and is 1 million behind Mario 64

don’t worry though. E gadd or King boo will make up for this when one of them inevitably becomes FP11

 

[KneeOfJustice99]

Sonic, Pac-Man, Ryu, Mega Man & maybe Cloud. I think Ryu/Mega Man are a package deal now especially since SF is bigger than MM & Capcom will put Ryu in literally anything.

Ooooo that's actually a solid point! Especially with SF6 coming in the next couple of years too, which I'm guessing they'll sorta handle like SF5 but, like, semi-competently... Cloud is an interesting one, though I suppose the addition of Hero and Sephiroth suggests Square are at least willing to play ball these days...

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Speaking of weird hills to die on, here’s my top 3 predictions for FP11

1. Off The Hook
2. Rabbid Peach
3. Paper Mario

Honorable mentions to the warped version of Delzethin’s predictions with one of the Champions, a Fire Emblem Heroes rep or a Pokémon, but I feel like those are less hill-dying.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

If they have to keep a barebones selection, I think they'd stick to the ones that have been around the longest, and probably also keep Steve since he's just that huge. After that they might keep Cloud if possible, or Hero should his musical circumstances change.

Ooooo that's actually a solid point! Especially with SF6 coming in the next couple of years too, which I'm guessing they'll sorta handle like SF5 but, like, semi-competently...

I dunno, with Luke being reflective of the next game's direction, they might be gearing up to pull another Street Fighter III.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Speaking of weird hills to die on, here’s my top 3 predictions for FP11

1. Off The Hook
2. Rabbid Peach
3. Paper Mario

Honorable mentions to the warped version of Delzethin’s predictions with one of the Champions, a Fire Emblem Heroes rep or a Pokémon, but I feel like those are less hill-dying.

Forgot Lu Bu/a Warriors character.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I think a decent portion of the third parties (barring maybe Square) will likely stick around. Capcom and Square have a vested interest in getting content on a prominent Switch game, SNK's happy for any publicity, and Namco/Sega have enough good relations with Nintendo overall that future negotiations wouldn't too bad. Microsoft's a wild card, but if Steve is kept, that a lot of potential additions are possible.

The characters themselves might be different, but company involvement I suspect will be more plus than minus.

 

[KneeOfJustice99]

If they have to keep a barebones selection, I think they'd stick to the ones that have been around the longest, and probably also keep Steve since he's just that huge. After that they might keep Cloud if possible, or Hero should his musical circumstances change.


I dunno, with Luke being reflective of the next game's direction, they might be gearing up to pull another Street Fighter III.

IF THEY PULL ANOTHER STREET FIGHTER III, THEY BETTER INCLUDE THE BEST CHARACTER IN THE ENTIRE SERIES IN THIS ONE.

Spoiler: CLICK HERE FOR EPICNESS

And he better not be bottom tier this time :|

I think a decent portion of the third parties (barring maybe Square) will likely stick around. Capcom and Square have a vested interest in getting content on a prominent Switch game, SNK's happy for any publicity, and Namco/Sega have enough good relations with Nintendo overall that future negotiations wouldn't too bad. Microsoft's a wild card, but if Steve is kept, that a lot of potential additions are possible.

The characters themselves might be different, but company involvement I suspect will be more plus than minus.

Konami only stick around if Nintendo agree to make a Smash pachinko machine

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Actually, I trimmed it down to a top 5 and I’m weirdly confident in them

1. Off The Hook
2. Rabbid Peach
3. Paper Mario
4. Lu Bu
5. Fjorm

 

[Paraster]

I think that it would probably have much less people in the general gaming sphere excited, but I can imagine some Nintendo fans being pleased given that some character picks that, realistically, wouldn't have been feasible before - a good example being classic characters such as Mach Rider, Sukapon and Takamaru. Business-wise, I can see why it would be easier, but I can't see them cutting it all simply because it would be a bad business decision for things like marketing.

Though, this does beg the question - in a situation where they try and get rid of as many third-party characters as possible, who do you think would remain? Personally, my own take is that Sonic, Mega Man and Pac-Man would be the remaining ones.

My personal list keeps those three, as well as Ryu and Ken. Ryu and Ken are probably next on the chopping block compared to the others, though.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Konami only stick around if Nintendo agree to make a Smash pachinko machine

As I've mentioned before, Konami has gone all in on the Nintendo in Japan, to the point that where the second best selling third party game in Japan for Switch after MH Rises is Momotaro Dentetsu, at over three million copies. A lot of the reason they're actually making good money right now is largely abandoning the AAA Western gaming market in favor of modest Japan focused releases like that aforementioned board game and Yu-Gi-Oh titles. They have more reason than anyone to keep the gravy train rolling, and easy negotiation for Smash characters both facilitates that and keeps IP's they're not otherwise doing anything with in the public eye.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

IF THEY PULL ANOTHER STREET FIGHTER III, THEY BETTER INCLUDE THE BEST CHARACTER IN THE ENTIRE SERIES IN THIS ONE.

Spoiler: CLICK HERE FOR EPICNESS

View attachment 329453
And he better not be bottom tier this time :|

lol they did add Eleven so perhaps Twelve will come again.

 

[TheLamerGamer]

I feel like SMT V will be an amazing game, and I have no doubts about its quality, but saying it's better than another game before we've even played it isn't a great idea. And while it could sell better than 3 Houses, I wouldn't count on it. 3 Houses is a major 1st party game, while SMT V is a niche 3rd party game.

I want SMT content in smash. A lot. But I know it's not a guarantee, because that's not how it works.

I'm tired of all the arguments at the moment, instead of speculation ending with people having fun predicting characters, it's fizzling out and devolving into the same arguments again and again.

(That's why you should join the Tatsuya Suou Support Thread, we never argue because we know there's no chance of him getting in, and there's only, like, 3 of us ).

 

[Willbuysmash4mw]

Seriously, don't put the cart before the bloody horse.

Yes, you've evidently staked everything on SMT V being this megasuccess. But if you're trying to argue for SMT V in good faith then saying its huge before its even released is giving me some severe Cyberpunk 2077 flashbacks. Not that the outcome need to be the same, no, but still.

For all intents and purposes SMT V is already a mega success for a SMT game, it will smash SMT IV’s record easily(hopefully several times over)

I am not talking about sales necessarily, I am talking about expanding the depth of the Switch’s library with a new quality 3rd party title for more mature gamers(which is basically the majority of the market now considering how big millennials and Gen Xers are to gaming)so that when a millennial dad gets a Switch OLED for Christmas this year he will have a game that actually respects the fact that he isn’t a kid anymore.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

For all intents and purposes SMT V is already a mega success for a SMT game, it will smash SMT IV’s record easily(hopefully several times over)

I am not talking about sales necessarily, I am talking about expanding the depth of the Switch’s library with a new quality 3rd party title for more mature gamers(which is basically the majority of the market now considering how big millennials and Gen Xers are to gaming)so that when a millennial dad gets a Switch OLED for Christmas this year he will have a game that actually respects the fact that he isn’t a kid anymore.

There are already a lot of mature games on the system.

That said, this is starting to delve into IP worship. That's not healthy.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Current state of Smash Speculation: Old friends sitting on lawn chairs shooting the breeze as they watch the universe end.

 

[Baba]

Another topic- do you guys think Ultimate will get a "complete edition" re-release later down the line? Like all DLC included and maybe a few more bonuses?

 

[MarioRaccoon]

What should be next SEGA IP getting a playable fighter in Smash? We now have Sonic (their biggest IP by far), Persona (most successful Atlus IP) and Bayonetta (which Nintendo funded their sequels, so I considered her as an hybrid third/first party character)…

Next in line are ->

Puyo Puyo: second biggest SEGA IP (+25 millions by end 2017 so it may be a little higher) but its true that during their peak (early/mid 90’s) Puyo Puyo was published by Banpresto and developed by Compile. SNES Super Puyo Puyo shipped 1.7 millions in japan and thats best selling current own SEGA IP game there. Its also a contemporary IP as its latest installment (PPT2) was released late 2020.

Yakuza: Its SEGA’s mature flagship IP, with 8 titles in just 16 years (+ spin-offs, remakes, ports, etc). Its mostly a yearly franchise. Eventhough the amount of titles it has gotten in the recent years, its sales aren’t really special (+15 millions). But to be fair, the first game is the third best selling SEGA published game in Japan with near 800k. Like Puyo Puyo, its an active IP as this year we got Yakuza 7

Virtua Fighter: I considered as SEGA’s most important Legacy IP. Wordwide its not their biggest IP, but VF2 is their best selling published game in japan (1.3 millions) and also it was Saturn flasgship title (best selling console there, it even outsold N64!). Its was also important as helped defined 3D games (especially fighting games). Akira is already in smash as a AT so Sakurai has acknowledged VF (and brief mentioned it at Kazuya presentation when talking about translating 3D fighting games). Contrary to Yakuza or Puyo Puyo, its not very relevant these days. Its last game was VF5 released originally at early 2007 (14 years ago !) and up to these days, we only just got updates of VF5 (most recently a psuedo-remaster for PS4 that hopefully comes to Switch).

 

[WeirdChillFever]

What should be next SEGA IP getting a playable fighter in Smash? We now have Sonic (their biggest IP by far), Persona (most successful Atlus IP) and Bayonetta (which Nintendo funded their sequels, so I considered her as an hybrid third/first party character)…

Next in line are ->

Puyo Puyo: second biggest SEGA IP (+25 millions by end 2017 so it may be a little higher) but its true that during their peak (early/mid 90’s) Puyo Puyo was published by Banpresto and developed by Compile. SNES Super Puyo Puyo shipped 1.7 millions in japan and thats best selling current own SEGA IP game there. Its also a contemporary IP as its latest installment (PPT2) was released late 2020.

Yakuza: Its SEGA’s mature flagship IP, with 8 titles in just 16 years (+ spin-offs, remakes, ports, etc). Its mostly a yearly franchise. Eventhough the amount of titles it has gotten in the recent years, its sales aren’t really special (+15 millions). But to be fair, the first game is the third best selling SEGA published game in Japan with near 800k. Like Puyo Puyo, its an active IP as this year we got Yakuza 7

Virtua Fighter: I considered as SEGA’s most important Legacy IP. Wordwide its not their biggest IP, but VF2 is their best selling published game in japan (1.3 millions) and also it was Saturn flasgship title (best selling console there, it even outsold N64!). Its was also important as helped defined 3D games (especially fighting games). Akira is already in smash as a AT so Sakurai has acknowledged VF (and brief mentioned it at Kazuya presentation when talking about translating 3D fighting games). Contrary to Yakuza or Puyo Puyo, its not very relevant these days. Its last game was VF5 released originally at early 2017 (14 years ago !) and up to these days, we only just got updates of VF5 (most recently a psuedo-remaster for PS4 that hopefully comes to Switch).

Rhythm Thief and the Emperor’s Treasure

 

[Jondolio]

Another topic- do you guys think Ultimate will get a "complete edition" re-release later down the line? Like all DLC included and maybe a few more bonuses?

I hope so. I would probably prefer that over a brand new Smash game.

 

[KneeOfJustice99]

Another topic- do you guys think Ultimate will get a "complete edition" re-release later down the line? Like all DLC included and maybe a few more bonuses?

Personally, whilst I love the potential of something like that, I feel like if it were to actually happen, Nintendo would screw it up somehow. I'd say that if there was an "Ultimate Definitive Edition," it does need to add something in terms of content. Then again, I'd probably be happy if they just tossed in a few more echo fighters and maybe a stage or two.

Fan Favourite additions such as a Tetris stage PLEASE FINALLY GIVE US ONE as well as maybe returning stages from older games like Pac-Maze would probably make sense to be added. In terms of echoes, probably just pretty simple ones - so nothing like, say, Ken - but more like Birdo over Yoshi, Octoling over Inkling and the like - would be realistic to expect for something like that.

What should be next SEGA IP getting a playable fighter in Smash? We now have Sonic (their biggest IP by far), Persona (most successful Atlus IP) and Bayonetta (which Nintendo funded their sequels, so I considered her as an hybrid third/first party character)…

Next in line are ->

Puyo Puyo: second biggest SEGA IP (+25 millions by end 2017 so it may be a little higher) but its true that during their peak (early/mid 90’s) Puyo Puyo was published by Banpresto and developed by Compile. SNES Super Puyo Puyo shipped 1.7 millions in japan and thats best selling current own SEGA IP game there. Its also a contemporary IP as its latest installment (PPT2) was released late 2020.

Yakuza: Its SEGA’s mature flagship IP, with 8 titles in just 16 years (+ spin-offs, remakes, ports, etc). Its mostly a yearly franchise. Eventhough the amount of titles it has gotten in the recent years, its sales aren’t really special (+15 millions). But to be fair, the first game is the third best selling SEGA published game in Japan with near 800k. Like Puyo Puyo, its an active IP as this year we got Yakuza 7

Virtua Fighter: I considered as SEGA’s most important Legacy IP. Wordwide its not their biggest IP, but VF2 is their best selling published game in japan (1.3 millions) and also it was Saturn flasgship title (best selling console there, it even outsold N64!). Its was also important as helped defined 3D games (especially fighting games). Akira is already in smash as a AT so Sakurai has acknowledged VF (and brief mentioned it at Kazuya presentation when talking about translating 3D fighting games). Contrary to Yakuza or Puyo Puyo, its not very relevant these days. Its last game was VF5 released originally at early 2017 (14 years ago !) and up to these days, we only just got updates of VF5 (most recently a psuedo-remaster for PS4 that hopefully comes to Switch).

sobbing because jet set radio will probably never get in smash in any capacity

 

[Ivander]

What should be next SEGA IP getting a playable fighter in Smash?

I've made my case for Phantasy Star being possible.

I can't post it right here at the moment as I am stuck on my phone currently.

 

[cashregister9]

Something Something Sakura Wars

 

[Speed Weed]

What should be next SEGA IP getting a playable fighter in Smash? We now have Sonic (their biggest IP by far), Persona (most successful Atlus IP) and Bayonetta (which Nintendo funded their sequels, so I considered her as an hybrid third/first party character)…

Next in line are ->

Puyo Puyo: second biggest SEGA IP (+25 millions by end 2017 so it may be a little higher) but its true that during their peak (early/mid 90’s) Puyo Puyo was published by Banpresto and developed by Compile. SNES Super Puyo Puyo shipped 1.7 millions in japan and thats best selling current own SEGA IP game there. Its also a contemporary IP as its latest installment (PPT2) was released late 2020.

Yakuza: Its SEGA’s mature flagship IP, with 8 titles in just 16 years (+ spin-offs, remakes, ports, etc). Its mostly a yearly franchise. Eventhough the amount of titles it has gotten in the recent years, its sales aren’t really special (+15 millions). But to be fair, the first game is the third best selling SEGA published game in Japan with near 800k. Like Puyo Puyo, its an active IP as this year we got Yakuza 7

Virtua Fighter: I considered as SEGA’s most important Legacy IP. Wordwide its not their biggest IP, but VF2 is their best selling published game in japan (1.3 millions) and also it was Saturn flasgship title (best selling console there, it even outsold N64!). Its was also important as helped defined 3D games (especially fighting games). Akira is already in smash as a AT so Sakurai has acknowledged VF (and brief mentioned it at Kazuya presentation when talking about translating 3D fighting games). Contrary to Yakuza or Puyo Puyo, its not very relevant these days. Its last game was VF5 released originally at early 2007 (14 years ago !) and up to these days, we only just got updates of VF5 (most recently a psuedo-remaster for PS4 that hopefully comes to Switch).

I will not stand for Phantasy Star erasure in this house

i do appreciate that you brought up VF tho, I don't really think it has a chance considering two of the most prominent characters have been Mii'd but it's nice to see more people in this community acknowledge SEGA stuff outside of the usual bubble of Sonic/Atlus/Puyo/sometimes Yakuza/their scrimblo bimblo properties in particular for whatever reason

 

[Super Devon]

If they were planning on doing it this week, then they wouldn't be able to push it back for a few reasons:

1. It would be a bit of a scheduling nightmare.
2. WarioWare: Get it Together would be on it, and they would miss the opportunity to promote it before it releases.
   • Similarly, any surprise titles that drop on the same day of the direct would cause the direct to have to be edited again to change the date, and that's if they can delay those games, which is more logistics to worry about.
   • Also, there's potentially something from Monolith Soft that's going up on their website soon, which would mean that Nintendo would have to delay that if they were going to delay the direct.

All in all it's just too short a notice for Nintendo to just change plans based on the State of Play.

I'd like to add to the second point that usually after a game release, Nintendo pretty much spends the entire following week talking about the newest game on social media, making it even less sense to have a direct on that week.

 

[3BitSaurus]

What should be next SEGA IP getting a playable fighter in Smash? We now have Sonic (their biggest IP by far), Persona (most successful Atlus IP) and Bayonetta (which Nintendo funded their sequels, so I considered her as an hybrid third/first party character)…

My want would be Arle, my prediction would be a Phantasy Star character (also kind of a want because I've been having a blast with PSO2).

Kiryu, Axel Stone and possibly Alex Kidd are honorary mentions, in that order from most to least likely. Anyone else... I dunno. I don't really see a VF character right after Kazuya* and other candidates (like NiGHTS or AiAi) are either dormant compared to the aforementioned ones, or in AiAi's case, I have no idea how they'd even begin to be translated into Smash, so I can't make an informed opinion.

*I'm saying all of this assuming the scenario that a Sega rep is CP11. Next Smash isat least 5+ years down the line, who knows how things will look then.

 

[ShrimpScampi]

Rhythm Thief and the Emperor’s Treasure

Maaan, Phantom R was a character I really wanted back in the Smash 4 days, since I thought Rhythm Thief was going somewhere as a franchise. I normally don’t care about completion %, but I remember going through Rhythm Thief and pushing to get max rank on each of the minigames.

I would 100% take Phantom R as the last fighter if he came with a proper Rhythm Thief sequel on Switch.

I’d also brace for the backlash of us finally getting a rhythm game rep, but it not being Rhythm Heaven

 

[Paraster]

What should be next SEGA IP getting a playable fighter in Smash? We now have Sonic (their biggest IP by far), Persona (most successful Atlus IP) and Bayonetta (which Nintendo funded their sequels, so I considered her as an hybrid third/first party character)…

Next in line are ->

Puyo Puyo: second biggest SEGA IP (+25 millions by end 2017 so it may be a little higher) but its true that during their peak (early/mid 90’s) Puyo Puyo was published by Banpresto and developed by Compile. SNES Super Puyo Puyo shipped 1.7 millions in japan and thats best selling current own SEGA IP game there. Its also a contemporary IP as its latest installment (PPT2) was released late 2020.

Yakuza: Its SEGA’s mature flagship IP, with 8 titles in just 16 years (+ spin-offs, remakes, ports, etc). Its mostly a yearly franchise. Eventhough the amount of titles it has gotten in the recent years, its sales aren’t really special (+15 millions). But to be fair, the first game is the third best selling SEGA published game in Japan with near 800k. Like Puyo Puyo, its an active IP as this year we got Yakuza 7

Virtua Fighter: I considered as SEGA’s most important Legacy IP. Wordwide its not their biggest IP, but VF2 is their best selling published game in japan (1.3 millions) and also it was Saturn flasgship title (best selling console there, it even outsold N64!). Its was also important as helped defined 3D games (especially fighting games). Akira is already in smash as a AT so Sakurai has acknowledged VF (and brief mentioned it at Kazuya presentation when talking about translating 3D fighting games). Contrary to Yakuza or Puyo Puyo, its not very relevant these days. Its last game was VF5 released originally at early 2007 (14 years ago !) and up to these days, we only just got updates of VF5 (most recently a psuedo-remaster for PS4 that hopefully comes to Switch).

As someone who's not really into Sega beyond a passing interest in Sonic, I'd say Puyo Puyo. It'd be nice to get a(nother) puzzle game rep, and you could probably get some creative gameplay ideas out of that.

 

[PeridotGX]

What should be next SEGA IP getting a playable fighter in Smash? We now have Sonic (their biggest IP by far), Persona (most successful Atlus IP) and Bayonetta (which Nintendo funded their sequels, so I considered her as an hybrid third/first party character)…

Next in line are ->

Puyo Puyo: second biggest SEGA IP (+25 millions by end 2017 so it may be a little higher) but its true that during their peak (early/mid 90’s) Puyo Puyo was published by Banpresto and developed by Compile. SNES Super Puyo Puyo shipped 1.7 millions in japan and thats best selling current own SEGA IP game there. Its also a contemporary IP as its latest installment (PPT2) was released late 2020.

Yakuza: Its SEGA’s mature flagship IP, with 8 titles in just 16 years (+ spin-offs, remakes, ports, etc). Its mostly a yearly franchise. Eventhough the amount of titles it has gotten in the recent years, its sales aren’t really special (+15 millions). But to be fair, the first game is the third best selling SEGA published game in Japan with near 800k. Like Puyo Puyo, its an active IP as this year we got Yakuza 7

Virtua Fighter: I considered as SEGA’s most important Legacy IP. Wordwide its not their biggest IP, but VF2 is their best selling published game in japan (1.3 millions) and also it was Saturn flasgship title (best selling console there, it even outsold N64!). Its was also important as helped defined 3D games (especially fighting games). Akira is already in smash as a AT so Sakurai has acknowledged VF (and brief mentioned it at Kazuya presentation when talking about translating 3D fighting games). Contrary to Yakuza or Puyo Puyo, its not very relevant these days. Its last game was VF5 released originally at early 2007 (14 years ago !) and up to these days, we only just got updates of VF5 (most recently a psuedo-remaster for PS4 that hopefully comes to Switch).

instead of adding one of those niche series, we gotta add a real icon

 

[SKX31]

Another topic- do you guys think Ultimate will get a "complete edition" re-release later down the line? Like all DLC included and maybe a few more bonuses?

Could certainly happen (and I also hope so) - primarily on the Switch's successor. There are some holes still:

• Online: Yeah, everyone sees this coming. Not just better netcode if feasible, but also more modes online (Squad Strike, where are you?) etc. If Smash Run could be reintroduced (it'd likely have to be reworked a bit, or at least have its graphics upgraded) that'd be sweet.
• The buffer system is implemented weirdly (especially how it interacts with short hops), so a fix there pls. Ditto with the C Stick, it's... strange.
• I'm not entirely sure what else could be implemented as a bonus considering that dev time may be short: but being able to rematch bosses at all would be nice. Ditto additional alternative costumes if feasible.

What should be next SEGA IP getting a playable fighter in Smash? We now have Sonic (their biggest IP by far), Persona (most successful Atlus IP) and Bayonetta (which Nintendo funded their sequels, so I considered her as an hybrid third/first party character)…

Next in line are ->

Puyo Puyo: second biggest SEGA IP (+25 millions by end 2017 so it may be a little higher) but its true that during their peak (early/mid 90’s) Puyo Puyo was published by Banpresto and developed by Compile. SNES Super Puyo Puyo shipped 1.7 millions in japan and thats best selling current own SEGA IP game there. Its also a contemporary IP as its latest installment (PPT2) was released late 2020.

Yakuza: Its SEGA’s mature flagship IP, with 8 titles in just 16 years (+ spin-offs, remakes, ports, etc). Its mostly a yearly franchise. Eventhough the amount of titles it has gotten in the recent years, its sales aren’t really special (+15 millions). But to be fair, the first game is the third best selling SEGA published game in Japan with near 800k. Like Puyo Puyo, its an active IP as this year we got Yakuza 7

Virtua Fighter: I considered as SEGA’s most important Legacy IP. Wordwide its not their biggest IP, but VF2 is their best selling published game in japan (1.3 millions) and also it was Saturn flasgship title (best selling console there, it even outsold N64!). Its was also important as helped defined 3D games (especially fighting games). Akira is already in smash as a AT so Sakurai has acknowledged VF (and brief mentioned it at Kazuya presentation when talking about translating 3D fighting games). Contrary to Yakuza or Puyo Puyo, its not very relevant these days. Its last game was VF5 released originally at early 2007 (14 years ago !) and up to these days, we only just got updates of VF5 (most recently a psuedo-remaster for PS4 that hopefully comes to Switch).

No one's ready for the most SEGA property of all though:

This is how Opa Opa's trailer should start. With Mario winning it, thinking it's a toy - but Opa ****ing shoots him.

(Yeah, I know it's incredibly unlikely to say the least, but I see Opa Opa just as I see say NiGHTS, Total War Shogun, Football Manager or most Sega characters - as a great addition on its own accord.)

 

[Willbuysmash4mw]

I feel like SMT V will be an amazing game, and I have no doubts about its quality, but saying it's better than another game before we've even played it isn't a great idea. And while it could sell better than 3 Houses, I wouldn't count on it. 3 Houses is a major 1st party game, while SMT V is a niche 3rd party game.

I want SMT content in smash. A lot. But I know it's not a guarantee, because that's not how it works.

Three Houses sold just over 3 million copies. That is really good for Fire Emblem but it’s not great for a Nintendo 1st party(especially once Metroid Dread sells like 4 to 5 million). SMT can actually beat that pretty easily in the future if not right now. The reason why SMT will definitely Three Houses in the future is because Fire Emblem a SRPG with very limited potential reach(if they could somehow make Fire Emblem more into a RPG then it would sell more), while SMT is a legendary standard JRPG series that just isn’t nearly as well known(especially in the west and particularly in Europe) but still has Persona(and by extension Smash) to grow its reach continuously despite that.

With Nahobino in Smash as the final fighter right as the game comes out I don’t see how SMT V doesn’t edge out Three Houses at the very least(the domino effect could potentially be massive enough that it actually dwarfs Three Houses in sales at that point). Without Nahobino in Smash SMT V would probably have to do exactly what Persona 5 did to edge out Three Houses(win RPG of the year and fight to at least qualify as a candidate for game of the year).


As for SMT content in Smash, that is a given. Even if Nintendo for some reason has a better choice than Nahobino lined up(which I honestly can’t see given the variables), SMT V is way too important to Nintendo not to put spirits in at least.

It’s obvious that Nintendo intends to make a 2nd even bigger marketing push for SMT V after the dub is revealed during the direct by telling people that the game is now on the Eshop(only physical copies are available right now)during that same direct. Nintendo wouldn’t do that for a game that isn’t getting anything in Smash.

There are already a lot of mature games on the system.

That said, this is starting to delve into IP worship. That's not healthy.

Not new mature games with 50 hours of guaranteed content, and certainly not something that looks as good as SMT V.

Even if that new Resident Evil Switch game is real it won’t come out until next year.

 

[KneeOfJustice99]

Here's a random thought I just had - what if this "definitive edition" has the option to "create" two alts?

Say you'd get different sections of each model (for instance, looking at Mario, you'd have the red, blue and white) and could alter the colours with sliders or something? I know Nintendo would never let that happen because somehow someone would work out a way to spread hentai through changing the colour of Ness' hat or something but it's a cool thought

 

[CommanderZaktan]

Actually, I trimmed it down to a top 5 and I’m weirdly confident in them

1. Off The Hook
2. Rabbid Peach
3. Paper Mario
4. Lu Bu
5. Fjorm

Here's my top 5

Doomslayer
Crash
Master Chief
Rayman
Dr. Eggman

 

[toonito]

I was working more on my prospective character lineup for a hypothetical next Smash (down to 45 veterans and 12-15 newcomers) and a thought occurred to me: what if the next Smash cut all third party content to make room for more Nintendo content and eliminate the need for negotiation with outside companies?

can't lie that would be super lame IMO Smash is bigger than a simple Nintendo crossover at this point character reveals are pretty much gaming events now. Smash has been a lucrative franchise since opening up to 3rd parties so I can't see why would they cut them all off. Downsize? sure. No 3rd party representation? Not a chance. I could definitely see that being a dealbreaker for a lot of people and yet I don't see how going Nintendo only expands their audience.

If they have to keep a barebones selection, I think they'd stick to the ones that have been around the longest, and probably also keep Steve since he's just that huge. After that they might keep Cloud if possible, or Hero should his musical circumstances change.


I dunno, with Luke being reflective of the next game's direction, they might be gearing up to pull another Street Fighter III.

I could see Sonic, Pac-Man, Ryu & Megaman, Cloud, Simon, Bayonetta, Terry, Steve, and Kazuya returning. If there are drastic cuts then Sonic, Bayo, Pac-Man, and Ryu I think are the safest.

As for Luke he seems to be SFVI's main character. Capcom's learned their lesson from SF3 in that they won't cut fan favorites in favor of newcomers ever again.

 

[Arctiq]

What should be next SEGA IP getting a playable fighter in Smash? We now have Sonic (their biggest IP by far), Persona (most successful Atlus IP) and Bayonetta (which Nintendo funded their sequels, so I considered her as an hybrid third/first party character)…

Next in line are ->

Puyo Puyo: second biggest SEGA IP (+25 millions by end 2017 so it may be a little higher) but its true that during their peak (early/mid 90’s) Puyo Puyo was published by Banpresto and developed by Compile. SNES Super Puyo Puyo shipped 1.7 millions in japan and thats best selling current own SEGA IP game there. Its also a contemporary IP as its latest installment (PPT2) was released late 2020.

Yakuza: Its SEGA’s mature flagship IP, with 8 titles in just 16 years (+ spin-offs, remakes, ports, etc). Its mostly a yearly franchise. Eventhough the amount of titles it has gotten in the recent years, its sales aren’t really special (+15 millions). But to be fair, the first game is the third best selling SEGA published game in Japan with near 800k. Like Puyo Puyo, its an active IP as this year we got Yakuza 7

Virtua Fighter: I considered as SEGA’s most important Legacy IP. Wordwide its not their biggest IP, but VF2 is their best selling published game in japan (1.3 millions) and also it was Saturn flasgship title (best selling console there, it even outsold N64!). Its was also important as helped defined 3D games (especially fighting games). Akira is already in smash as a AT so Sakurai has acknowledged VF (and brief mentioned it at Kazuya presentation when talking about translating 3D fighting games). Contrary to Yakuza or Puyo Puyo, its not very relevant these days. Its last game was VF5 released originally at early 2007 (14 years ago !) and up to these days, we only just got updates of VF5 (most recently a psuedo-remaster for PS4 that hopefully comes to Switch).

I'd love to see Kiriyu get in. The ost alone deserves to be in Smash.

 

[Guynamednelson]

The ballot was already "outdated" at the time Banjo was added, and Sakurai said as much an an interview prior to Banjo. It being outdated means not to fixate it, not to outright ignore it. It's still valuable data, because it's the last data they took for figuring out what the fans wanted.

Plus, even if it's outdated NOW, that doesn't mean that the perception was it was so horribly outdated in 2018/2019, which is when Pass 2 was fully finalized.

If anything, it should be obvious that FP2 hasn't catered to how Smash fans' tastes have changed, even without a ballot pick. It started with an ARMS rep and doesn't feature any of the niche/only-big-in-Japan third parties we thought were now possible thanks to FP1's selections.

 

[TheLamerGamer]

Three Houses sold just over 3 million copies. That is really good for Fire Emblem but it’s not great for a Nintendo 1st party(especially once Metroid Dread sells like 4 to 5 million). SMT can actually beat that pretty easily in the future if not right now. The reason why SMT will definitely Three Houses in the future is because Fire Emblem a SRPG with very limited potential reach(if they could somehow make Fire Emblem more into a RPG then it would sell more), while SMT is a legendary standard JRPG series that just isn’t nearly as well known(especially in the west and particularly in Europe) but still has Persona(and by extension Smash) to grow its reach continuously despite that.

With Nahobino in Smash as the final fighter right as the game comes out I don’t see how SMT V doesn’t edge out Three Houses at the very least(the domino effect could potentially be massive enough that it actually dwarfs Three Houses in sales at that point). Without Nahobino in Smash SMT V would probably have to do exactly what Persona 5 did to edge out Three Houses(win RPG of the year and fight to at least qualify as a candidate for game of the year).


As for SMT content in Smash, that is a given. Even if Nintendo for some reason has a better choice than Nahobino lined up(which I honeskycan’t see given the variables), SMT V is way too important to Nintendo not to put spirits in at least.

It’s obvious that Nintendo intends to make a 2nd even bigger marketing push for SMT V after the dub is revealed during the direct by telling people that the game is now on the Eshop(only physical copies are available right now)during that same direct. Nintendo wouldn’t do that for a game that isn’t getting anything in Smash.

Not new mature games with 50 hours of guaranteed content, and certainly not something that looks as good as SMT V.

Even if that new Resident Evil Switch game is real it won’t come out until next year.

I love SMT, but you're really exaggerating its chances. SMT is far more niche than Fire Emblem, and a Smash character is unlikely to change that.

I was going to put the SMT V battle theme preview ATLUS uploaded today here to give an example of music Nahobino could come with, but I decided against it because I know for a fact people are tired of SMT (specifically Nahobino) discussion because of this one argument.

If Nahobino gets in, great! You were right, I'll be happy to see my favourite series get representation, and everyone will be able to listen to SMT music in smash, and maybe be introduced to a new series. If he doesn't, then that's also fine, because nobody has the right to be ungrateful after the amount of effort that's gone into this game, and no matter who the character is, as long as they're fun, have a good design and come with good music, I'll be really happy.

You're just setting yourself up for disappointment if you think like this, because chances are we won't get Nahobino. And even if literally everything points to Nahobino, which it doesn't, then we'd still probably get a Pianta from Mario Sunshine, because we almost never get the most obvious character.

 

[Speed Weed]

On the topic of SEGA, though, you know what SEGA franchise would be really cool to have some representation from?

House of the Dead.

Like, I get why people don't talk about it, I myself don't think it's super likely, but it is still a noteworthy franchise and although it's outclassed by a lot of other SEGA stuff that could be included, I'd still love to see it get something.

Now I'll admit a playable character wouldn't have a very high chance of making me super happy, as my preferred pick is a pretty obscure character and so it likely wouldn't be them, but I dunno, give us, like, the Magician as a boss or somethin

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Here's my top 5

Doomslayer
Crash
Master Chief
Rayman
Dr. Eggman

That’s a great one! My list was more based on “What five characters could I take almost sole credit for predicting.“ but your list sounds more realistic.