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Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

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chocolatejr9

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Bro.... no.
If we are going to do comparisons... let's compare Nintendo RPGs.
We have EVERY SINGLE Nintendo RPG series (not spinoff) have MULTIPLE characters in Smash. Except for 2.
Fossil Fighter.
Golden Sun.

If we are extending to third parties, when does the list ever stop? There will always be a 'next most influential/top selling' RPG after all the ones in. It is ad infinum. There is not a barrier short of 'total number of RPG series ever made.'

Let's go back to home. Let's get Isaac.
Actually, Fossil Fighter wouldn't be that bad of a rep...
 

Shroob

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Bro.... no.
If we are going to do comparisons... let's compare Nintendo RPGs.
We have EVERY SINGLE Nintendo RPG series (not spinoff) have MULTIPLE characters in Smash. Except for 2.
Fossil Fighter.
Golden Sun.

If we are extending to third parties, when does the list ever stop? There will always be a 'next most influential/top selling' RPG after all the ones in. It is ad infinum. There is not a barrier short of 'total number of RPG series ever made.'

Let's go back to home. Let's get Isaac.
As much as I'd adore Isaac, I don't see a world in which Nintendo ever picks Isaac for Smash without making his series relevant again, especially this game, where all 1st Party character's games have been from the Switch, except Plant.
 

3BitSaurus

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I just think it’s funny that people bring up conspiracy theories as to how and why Bayonetta didn’t do well and win the ballot when the only official information we have is that she did well in it. Bayonetta won the final DLC spot for Sm4sh that should be it, end of story, but for some reason Smash Fans need some sort of affirmation that the character they didn’t want wasn’t popular. It’s intriguing to put it lightly.
Uh... we do have one other, though. The datamine showing her data two weeks into the Ballot. At the very least, she was selected really early. I don't think this has anything to do with affirmation.

Either way, I still don't get this notion of "winning" or "losing" the Ballot - wasn't it specifically framed as a suggestion box and not a ballot in the japanese stream?
 

Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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Something to keep in mind; just cause popularity exploded after the ballot doesn't mean that there aren't votes for those characters(I.E. Steve). He's still a very huge character in gaming, so having some votes makes sense. That doesn't mean it influenced his addition either. Maybe it helped slightly, maybe it had no effect.

If Sakurai isn't mentioning it, it could mean "it had zero effect" or "it wasn't a core factor, but it was taken into account." He's honestly vague enough on these things that the lack of him saying something doesn't mean it can't be true. A lack of evidence, yeah.

In fact, Steve's time of being in talks does match the ballot timing, but it doesn't mean it's evidence he's in due to it. That's just conjecture. It's a decent theory, but nothing to legit back it up.
 

pupNapoleon

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I just think it’s funny that people bring up conspiracy theories as to how and why Bayonetta didn’t do well and win the ballot when the only official information we have is that she did well in it. Bayonetta won the final DLC spot for Sm4sh that should be it, end of story, but for some reason Smash Fans need some sort of affirmation that the character they didn’t want wasn’t popular. It’s intriguing to put it lightly.
Actually- the information we got was that she did well
  • at one point of the ballot
  • in one region
  • withing a certain sized length of list

But really, I agree with the overall theme- this is irrelevant to discuss.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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I'm just saying.
It's best to prepare for disappointment rather than be blindsided by it.
I think we're past the days of people banking on something specific and then yelling when it wasn't that.

...all 1st Party character's games have been from the Switch, except Plant.
Even that's not technically true since Piranha Plant is in various Mario games on the Switch.
 

Jondolio

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I don't think Isaac is getting in, but I find it really admirable that he's still being brought up so often even after being blatantly disconfirmed
GS fans' tenacity is actually really admirable
 

SKX31

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Doesn't Doc still use Smash 4-style "equipment" even in Ultimate? Just a funny leftover if I remember correctly.
SSBWiki to the rescue!

While equipment no longer appears in Ultimate, Dr. Mario still has external modifiers changing his physics and strength: they are modified as if he were wearing equipment of +22 attack and -65 speed in Smash 4. However, they are not exactly like equipment; for example, the speed stat in Smash 4 would modify landing lag, while Dr. Mario in Ultimate has the same landing lag as Mario, with the landing lag for his neutral, up, back and down aerials manually adjusted to be different from Mario's.
Which translates to:

Most of Dr. Mario's moveset deals 1.176x more damage compared to Mario's moveset. Conversely, his full hop height is 0.85x; his walking and dashing speeds are 0.7942x; his air speed, air acceleration, short hop height, and midair jump height are 0.7648x multiplier.
In short: Kinda? Depends on how one views the answer.

Personally, Koei-Tecmo having a near 10 decade long partnership with Nintendo developing various games under their IPs while none of their own IPs have a Challenger Pack in Smash is pretty deflating as someone that likes a good portion of their games, especially when it comes to Dynasty Warriors because I've always been of the conscious that people overlook the series way too much in regards to DLC. For it to turn out Nintendo skipped over on Koei-Tecmo's IPs is a huge letdown for me especially with Byleth being included since KT developed that game. In a way, it's like Nintendo didn't see much in any of Koei-Tecmo's IPs for a Challenger Pack and decided to include the Fire Emblem game they developed instead, so I guess Ima just have to live with that til the next Smash game comes around.
Sorry, I'm getting in on a really fine detail here, but I didn't know that Koei Tecmo had been working with Nintendo since the 1920s. :4pacman:

Nah but seriously, I do agree that it's overlooked, but at the same time it's difficult to judge K-T not only since they have quite a few options - but also since K-T getting a Challenger Pack kinda hinges on whether they feel Byleth is "enough" or not really (for lack of a better way of saying it). It's difficult to say: chances are pretty good IMHO that Sakurai or even Furukawa would be interested in say Hayabusa or DW, but it's difficult to tell when there were only 6 slots in FP2 and two of the five slots revealed so far have gone to first / second parties. TBF, it's difficult to tell with any character, but still.

The mention of Koei-Tecmo got me thinking, what are the realistic chances of the last fighter belonging to a third party company that hasn't had a character yet, whether it's of the Activision type (with nothing in Smash so far) or an Ubisoft or Bethesda variety (Mii costumes, but no actual fighter)?

I've gone over in my head various possibilities, but I do confess its odd to imagine a brand new company suddenly getting a major character (the final one at that) when the last new one to emerge was two years ago with SNK's Terry.
As mentioned above, really difficult to say. I mean you have those plus:

  • ASW, Guilty Gear / BlazBlue / FighterZ dev. Has a couple games published on Nintendo consoles.
  • Tencent, Nintendo's partner in China and Pokemon Unite developer. (Not so) Coincidentally with the Unite point owns Riot - the LoL developer,
  • Level 5, while nowhere near the good financial spot, still has some noteworthy IP with Nintendo history, like Layton.
  • WB Games, most notably Mortal Kombat and Scribblenauts.
  • Marvelous - Story of Seasons mainly, but also is involved in other IPs IIRC.

And so on. It's not like the new options are few and far between - there are only so many slots in the FP to begin with, so it's really difficult to tell when and if a new corp gets a slot.
 
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Mushroomguy12

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Bro.... no.
If we are going to do comparisons... let's compare Nintendo RPGs.
We have EVERY SINGLE Nintendo RPG series (not spinoff) have MULTIPLE characters in Smash. Except for 2.
Fossil Fighter.
Golden Sun.

If we are extending to third parties, when does the list ever stop? There will always be a 'next most influential/top selling' RPG after all the ones in. It is ad infinum. There is not a barrier short of 'total number of RPG series ever made.'

Let's go back to home. Let's get Isaac.
Advance Wars:

1630956752987.png
 
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Þe 1 → Way

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I think Issac has a good shot next time around. Ultimates Base Roster being so small and DLC seemingly not having room for lesser known 1st Parties likely pushed him to the wayside, with the team only having time to get GS Spirits and bring back the assist.

If next game has a bigger base roster I’d say he’s a frontrunner for it (as much of a frontrunner as you can be for a game not even being made yet that is).
 
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Dinoman96

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I think Issac has a good shot next time around. Ultimates Base Roster being so small and DLC seemingly not having room for lesser known 1st Parties likely pushed him to the wayside, with the team only having time to get GS Spirits and bring back the Issac assist.

If next game has a bigger base roster I’d say he’s a frontrunner for it (as much of a frontrunner as you can be for a game not even being made yet that is).
Unless Golden Sun gets miraculously revived within the next few years, I don't see them putting Isaac on the roster several years from now where Golden Sun will be even more irrelevant.

It's how I feel about a lot of the older fan requests that didn't make it in Ultimate, I feel like this was their last chance. I would of felt the same with Banjo-Kazooie had they not made it, too.
 
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NessAtc.

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You'd have a point if track selection wasn't super random, especially for the songs that fall in the "other" category. It's also possible that the teams doing the Spirits and selecting the music weren't the same or even coordinating.

Also, it could easily be the case that they said "Isaac did well on the ballot, add a bunch of Golden Sun Spirits" and left it at that, or that they gave Golden Sun a bunch of spirits because Isaac was an Assist Trophy. There's no real way of telling other than it's likely that the ballot made Isaac an Assist Trophy.
It wasn't "super random", actually. The additions of music are related to added content, new games that came out after smash 4, and, of course, fan demand.
For example, we got a Metal Gear 2 remix to go with Gray Fox's return, Central Highway, X vs Zero, and Theme of Zero (From MMZ on GBA, you can hear the fuzz) to go with Zero, etc. I really, really do not see why you would not add just one more Golden Sun rip when you have 7 spirit battles, or, at very least, not explicitly limit yourself to Golden Sun music. You know, like every other spirit set does.... except for Xenoblade 2!?!? Huh...

Unless Golden Sun gets miraculously revived within the next few years, I don't see them putting Isaac on the roster several years from now where Golden Sun will be even more irrelevant.
As much as I'd adore Isaac, I don't see a world in which Nintendo ever picks Isaac for Smash without making his series relevant again, especially this game, where all 1st Party character's games have been from the Switch, except Plant.
...and I don't understand why we still go off of this logic of "it has to be relevant!". By all accounts, if this was true, we should not have Banjo at all. This is the definition of a character that Nintendo does not have any interest in including except for fan demand, and yet they did.

Ballot demand is enough to supplant relevancy, since it proves relevancy towards the core market of smash.
 
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pupNapoleon

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Banjo was the only one mentioned to be a ballot choice whatsoever. Sure, those characters were likely on the ballot to an extent, but it played zero role in their addition; that's why Sakurai never mentioned it for anyone other than Banjo.
Sakurai not mentioning the ballot played a role doesn't mean it didn't play a role.
He didn't mention the ballot for K Rool or Ridley, if I recall. And even if he did;
absence of verification of a fact does not mean the fact does not exist.
 

Willbuysmash4mw

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It "was", and then it began development a year later. And then we saw actual gameplay two years after development fully began.

That's completely different from "this game got announced and we're seeing it in action a year later".

A JPEG of a game's title isn't good enough to be considered, especially for a series as low profile as SMT.
Where are you getting JPEG?

The reveal trailer in October 2017(not a year later) literally showed the protag and the heroine, Tao(who was just officially revealed a month ago), Da-at and even hints at major story elements with the magatsuhi leaving the demons in the same underground station that causes you to go to Da-at.

SMT V has been cooking in Atlus’ oven basically since that teaser trailer at the Switch event.
 

Þe 1 → Way

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Unless Golden Sun gets miraculously revived within the next few years, I don't see them putting Isaac on the roster several years from now where Golden Sun will be even more irrelevant.

It's how I feel about a lot of the older fan requests that didn't make it in Ultimate, I feel like this was their last chance. I would of felt the same with Banjo-Kazooie had they not made it, too.
I was thinking Isaac would get in with sheer fan support, like K Rool. Since Sakurai handles base roster inclusions and loves tossing in lesser known or irrelevant series.
 
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Shroob

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It wasn't "super random", actually. The additions of music are related to added content, new games that came out after smash 4, and, of course, fan demand.
For example, we got a Metal Gear 2 remix to go with Gray Fox's return, Central Highway, X vs Zero, and Theme of Zero (From MMZ on GBA, you can hear the fuzz) to go with Zero, etc. I really, really do not see why you would not add just one more Golden Sun rip when you have 7 spirit battles, or, at very least, not explicitly limit yourself to Golden Sun music. You know, like every other spirit set does.... except for Xenoblade 2!?!? Huh...





...and I don't understand why we still go off of this logic of "it has to be relevant!". By all accounts, if this was true, we should not have Banjo at all. This is the definition of a character that Nintendo does not have any interest in including except for fan demand, and yet they did.
Because Banjo's 3rd party.


Isaac's 1st, and of the 3 Fighter's Pass 1st party characters, they've all been from titles that are on the Switch.



I love, LOVE Golden Sun, but you're not gonna convince me to have confidence that Nintendo won't pick a Switch-era character after 3 Switch characters in a row, which, Isaac is not.


Also he's an Assist Trophy and I don't personally believe we're getting any upgrades.
 

Cutie Gwen

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I was thinking Issac would get in with sheer fan support, like K Rool. Since Sakurai handles base roster inclusions and loves tossing in lesser known or irrelevant series.
Nah man nobody asks for Issac, he ****ing sucks, he's not even from a video game or anything really
 

NessAtc.

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Sakurai not mentioning the ballot played a role doesn't mean it didn't play a role.
He didn't mention the ballot for K Rool or Ridley, if I recall. And even if he did;
absence of verification of a fact does not mean the fact does not exist.
Absence of verification of a fact means that the fact isn't important. Which means it doesn't matter to the inclusion.

Also, he did say the ballot played a role for K Rool, Ridley, and Belmonts, as well as Chrom and Dark Samus.
 

Dan Quixote

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Banjo was the only one mentioned to be a ballot choice whatsoever. Sure, those characters were likely on the ballot to an extent, but it played zero role in their addition; that's why Sakurai never mentioned it for anyone other than Banjo.
I swear I remember the Belmonts (or more specifically Simon) also being mentioned as being popular in the ballot by Sakurai in an interview or something.

Uh... we do have one other, though. The datamine showing her data two weeks into the Ballot. At the very least, she was selected really early. I don't think this has anything to do with affirmation.

Either way, I still don't get this notion of "winning" or "losing" the Ballot - wasn't it specifically framed as a suggestion box and not a ballot in the japanese stream?
I'm definitely on the side of Nintendo didn't lie and Bayonetta was 100% a ballot choice, but remember they outright admitted she didn't win win in the traditional sense. Just someone who was popular everywhere, top 5 and junk. That seems good enough to me.
 

pupNapoleon

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Absence of verification of a fact means that the fact isn't important. Which means it doesn't matter to the inclusion.
That's an absurd sentiment. Nothing is relevant unless it is blatantly said?
So... Smash doesn't need to make money, because it has never been a stated goal? Etc etc etc etc
 
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Dinoman96

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I kinda suspect the next Smash's newcomer lineup will be more like Smash 4 and less like Ultimate. As in, focusing mostly on popular contemporary Nintendo games, minus some legacy third parties and possibly another surprise character (like Duck Hunt and R.O.B).
 
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NessAtc.

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Because Banjo's 3rd party.
Isaac's 1st, and of the 3 Fighter's Pass 1st party characters, they've all been from titles that are on the Switch.
...what does Banjo being third party have to do with anything? Does he magically get some sort of priority just because he's not owned by Nintendo? If anything, him being dead AND not owned by Nintendo should have outright killed him.

Also, just because three of them have been Switch titles doesn't mean that the last one also must be. In fact, because we're so, so low on options for "switch titles" due to spirit events and miis, the chances of a first party character this time not being tied to the switch goes up.

That's an absurd sentiment. Nothing is relevant unless it is blatantly said?
So... Smash doesn't need to make money, because it has never been a stated goal? Etc etc etc etc
That, my friend, is an absurd conflation. Ballot status is irrelevant unless stated, because you can argue any character had "ballot presence". Sakurai brings up the characters that are "stand out" within the ballot, though.
 
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Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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Sakurai not mentioning the ballot played a role doesn't mean it didn't play a role.
He didn't mention the ballot for K Rool or Ridley, if I recall. And even if he did;
absence of verification of a fact does not mean the fact does not exist.
He mentioned the ballot for both, the Belmonts(albeit, this was Castlevania as a whole, but it's still a hard factor of what got them in), and implied it was also the case for Dark Samus and Chrom. As no other polls existed of knowledge to us he could've gotten influence for the last two. There's also others who obviously got voted high but wouldn't need it anyway like Isabelle and Inkling.

The ballot doesn't have evidential influence on a lot of characters. They're good guesses, but zero evidence other than a gut feeling. We only have 7 confirmed(and 2 of those are light confirmations) from the ballot related to Ultimate. And 1 technically confirmed for Smash 4.

If you can't provide evidence of it, it's not really a good argument to begin with. There's no reason to believe Steve was influenced by it. But that doesn't mean he didn't get a sizable vote set, but considering not everyone knew about the ballot anyway, that only further makes the votebase much smaller, and no amount of ballots online can tell us a huge amount of data either. Just some decent theories at most. We'll never have the data(for better or worse), anyway, so.
 
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SMAASH! Puppy

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Sorry, I'm getting in on a really fine detail here, but I didn't know that Koei Tecmo had been working with Nintendo since the 1920s. Must've been some swingin' :4pacman:

Nah but seriously, I do agree that it's overlooked, but at the same time it's difficult to judge K-T not only since they have quite a few options - but also since K-T getting a Challenger Pack kinda hinges on whether they feel Byleth is "enough" or not really (for lack of a better way of saying it). It's difficult to say: chances are pretty good IMHO that Sakurai or even Furukawa would be interested in say Hayabusa or DW, but it's difficult to tell when there were only 6 slots in FP2 and two of the five slots revealed so far have gone to first / second parties. TBF, it's difficult to tell with any character, but still.
I know they helped with Fire Emblem: Three Houses's development, but I don't think Byleth counts as a Koei-Tecmo rep in the slightest.

But yeah, Ryu, a Dynasty Warriors character, and (probably not) Kasumi are all candidates here.

The site makes note of that lol.
Appears in: Super Mario Bros. Just Super Mario Bros. Nothing else. :4pacman:

I'm sure a lot of characters have that going on but it's still funny.

The additions of music are related to added content, new games that came out after smash 4, and, of course, fan demand.
And the ones they pick from are for the most part, super random.

For example, we got a Metal Gear 2 remix to go with Gray Fox's return, Central Highway, X vs Zero, and Theme of Zero (From MMZ on GBA, you can hear the fuzz) to go with Zero, etc.
The remix selection was based on the whims of the composers, so the Theme of Solid Snake remix was not to specifically to go with the Gray Fox, and the original version of the song was in Super Smash Bros. Brawl. Combine that with the fact that it's Snake's theme, and I'm pretty sure it's just one of the tracks that would always be in the game if Snake is.

The Mega Man themes are likely just to expand the musical reach for the series. I don't think they're specifically to go with the Zero Assist Trophy. Central Highway, X vs. Zero, and Zero's original theme are all iconic songs from the Mega Man X series and they would likely be in with or without the Assist Trophy.
 

3BitSaurus

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I'm definitely on the side of Nintendo didn't lie and Bayonetta was 100% a ballot choice, but remember they outright admitted she didn't win win in the traditional sense. Just someone who was popular everywhere, top 5 and junk. That seems good enough to me.
Oh, she was popular alright, and I have no doubt she did well. My point isn't that they outright lied about Bayo doing well, and more that she was either picked really early in a suggestion box that was open for months, or she was going to make it either way and just so happened to do well in the Ballot at the same time (probably what "among realizable characters" means in this context).

Otherwise, the dev time to ballot opening ratio simply doesn't add up.
 

Shroob

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...what does Banjo being third party have to do with anything? Does he magically get some sort of priority just because he's not owned by Nintendo? If anything, him being dead AND not owned by Nintendo should have outright killed him.

Also, just because three of them have been Switch titles doesn't mean that the last one also must be. In fact, because we're so, so low on options for "switch titles" due to spirit events and miis, the chances of a first party character this time not being tied to the switch goes up.
Because 1st party characters are seemingly playing by the rules of "Free promotion for current console gen games", while 3rd parties aren't.


Why do you think that discussion about 1st party characters has basically dried up as of late and looked at as a more "Meh" tone? Most people at the moment believe that if any 1st party character gets in as CP11, it won't be someone like Isaac, or Dixie, or BWD, or Chorus Kids, etc.


It'd be someone like a Gen 8 Pokemon.


You're right, they don't have to follow this trend, but if you'd ask most people, I'd wager their outlook on things changing is anything but positive.
 

pupNapoleon

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He mentioned the ballot for both, the Belmonts(albeit, this was Castlevania as a whole, but it's still a hard factor of what got them in), and implied it was also the case for Dark Samus and Chrom. As no other polls existed of knowledge to us he could've gotten influence for the last two. There's also others who obviously got voted high but wouldn't need it anyway like Isabelle and Inkling.

The ballot doesn't have evidential influence on a lot of characters. They're good guesses, but zero evidence other than a gut feeling. We only have 7 confirmed(and 2 of those are light confirmations) from the ballot related to Ultimate. And 1 technically confirmed for Smash 4.

If you can't provide evidence of it, it's not really a good argument to begin with. There's no reason to believe Steve was influenced by it. But that doesn't mean he didn't get a sizable vote set, but considering not everyone knew about the ballot anyway, that only further makes the votebase much smaller, and no amount of ballots online can tell us a huge amount of data either. Just some decent theories at most. We'll never have the data(for better or worse), anyway, so.
My argument wasn't, 'the ballot is why we got Steve.'
My argument, presented against the fact that 'we only got one ballot pick, Banjo,' was that, this is also not backed by evidence.
We have no idea what role the ballot played in other characters- however, given many characters we have gotten were popular during the ballot, that it is silly to think it wouldn't have at least have factored in.
 

Theguy123

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The mention of Koei-Tecmo got me thinking, what are the realistic chances of the last fighter belonging to a third party company that hasn't had a character yet, whether it's of the Activision type (with nothing in Smash so far) or an Ubisoft or Bethesda variety (Mii costumes, but no actual fighter)?

I've gone over in my head various possibilities, but I do confess its odd to imagine a brand new company suddenly getting a major character (the final one at that) when the last new one to emerge was two years ago with SNK's Terry.
quite high. Higher than people are willing to accept. Pass 1 had 2 new company’s to smash being Microsoft and snk.

pass 2 has had 1 being Namco if you consider them new due to not appearing in pass 1. A 2nd evens things out

putting that aside though. If you don’t consider Namco new then there’s no new company yet. The chances of a new company is high. It makes sense to leave it to last considering the last fighter is specifically the last one in the entire game.
 

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Honestly I feel there are so many holes to poke around for this argument that I legit feel bad for anyone thinking Isaac's damn near a lock
Has someone stated Isaac is near a lock?
I don't even consider him likely. I just want him, and believe he is on the table- with about 4k other characters.
 

pupNapoleon

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quite high. Higher than people are willing to accept. Pass 1 had 2 new company’s to smash being Microsoft and snk.

pass 2 has had 1 being Namco if you consider them new due to not appearing in pass 1. A 2nd evens things out

putting that aside though. If you don’t consider Namco new then there’s no new company yet. The chances of a new company is high. It makes sense to leave it to last considering the last fighter is specifically the last one in the entire game.
This logic seriously irks me.
There is no way that Namco can be a sound 'new company' for a company, without finding some arbitrary boundaries.

We have 0 new companies brought onto Smash in this current Fighters Pass, so far (in relation to characters playable).
 
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Theguy123

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This logic seriously irks me.
There is no way that Namco can be a sound 'new company' for a company, without finding some arbitrary boundaries.

We have 0 new companies brought onto Smash in this current Fighters Pass, so far (in relation to characters playable).
some people like to think they’re new because they didn’t appear in pass 1. Others think they’re not. Realistically they’re not new to the pass so we’ve had 0 new company’s but it can work either way.

either way a new company being last is high.
 

True Blue Warrior

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I kinda suspect the next Smash's newcomer lineup will be more like Smash 4 and less like Ultimate. As in, focusing mostly on popular contemporary Nintendo games, minus some legacy third parties and possibly another surprise character (like Duck Hunt and R.O.B).
And the next game will also have a significantly higher number of cuts than any Smash game before. Remember that a no-cut scenario means that all 17 third-party fighters will have to be renegotiated for. Also, just because two characters are owned by the same company, that doesn't mean that licensing one would make licensing the other difficult, so no, :ultjoker: is not automatically easier or likelier to come back just because :ultsonic: is likely to come back due to the logic that they are owned by Sega. That is not how negotiations work.
 
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