Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[MattX20]

Okay, to refresh everyone's memory regarding the September general directs, the last one that took place on September 4th 2019 was announced a day prior https://twitter.com/NintendoAmerica/status/1168886367650119680 . It was also 2 days after Labor Day that year, so keep your eyes open

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

It's interesting to me that you call Joker a gaming icon, and then go on to say Hero is not one.

Hero's a weird case where the alts are clearly well known past characters (more Japan than the West admittedly) but the main slot (and thus focus) was from a fairly recent title that was coming out for Switch. In that sense, the character is somewhat Simon Belmont esque in coming from a legacy connection to Nintendo but also promoting/starring in a very new Switch game, which actually makes them the outlier as far as third party newcomers overall, hence why I couldn't really find an accurate counterpart for him in the Smash 4 DLC list.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

However, it's more the case of "she was top [x] among realizable characters." Which isn't remotely incorrect. Realizable is a subjective phrasing that at most means "we had a way to make them playable". Many characters might've not been considered, or were too hard to make at the time. So it's not really a lie, we're just led to believe two things connect that were never connected due to poor phrasing.

The interpretation that made the most sense to me was that Bayonetta was the highest scoring realizable character because she was the only realizable character due to being the one that they had already picked.

 

[pupNapoleon]

Problem is? It's not a ploy. She did that well.

That doesn't mean the ballot was an influence on the choice.

These things can be exclusive.

So, to paraphrase:

• She did do that well on the ballot
• She didn't get in due to the ballot

So I guess she just did well everywhere- she did well on the ballot, and was predetermined. She was going to be chosen anyway, but- hell, she actually turned out to be done exceptionally well and had high votes!

Yeah... I don't think this makes sense.

Hero is a class, not a specific character. Erdrick isn't even known much worldwide, so it's pretty hard to call that one a gaming icon. The only one that might be decently known worldwide is Erdrick's descendant. On the other hand, Slime is easily a gaming icon. People know who it is. A lot. It's the DQ mascot for a reason(finding a DQ game without it is hard). But a mascot doesn't have to outright be a gaming icon either. They're mutually exclusive.

Joker is probably too lowkey to really fit that either.

I mean... I think Joker is far from an Icon.
But Erdrick is hugely influential in gaming, and was highly requested.

But at best, neither is a gaming icon. I don't think it is possible to call Joker a gaming icon.

 

[Jondolio]

So weird to me that people are discussing the ballot in 2021

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

The interpretation that made the most sense to me was that Bayonetta was the highest scoring realizable character because she was the only realizable character due to being the one that they had already picked.

Makes sense to me, even in that case. Either way, it's the truth, just not in a way we expected it. That's why I say realizable has some subjectivity to it. Exactly what category is it, etc.

 

[pupNapoleon]

Also... here are my views on custom moves:

- Their fine. They are fun. If nothing else, they can add to the zany aspect of Smash.

However, Smash has a lot of investment from fans, and well... in business, making any choice involves the opportunity costs- the choices that were not chosen for use of the resources (time, money, etc) that were put towards the chosen idea.

So what were the real opportunity costs of these custom moves? Better online? Making Smash Mario Party fun? MORE CHARACTERS?

In almost any scenario, I'd have made the OTHER choice. I'd heavily have preferred more characters, to getting a lot of custom moves.

 

[NessAtc.]

So weird to me that people are discussing the ballot in 2021

Because it's still relevant discussion. We got Banjo in pass 1, so suggesting it "doesn't matter" at this stage is a bit ridiculous to be frank

 

[DarthEnderX]

Yep. That's how it goes I'm afraid. If you just so happen to pick the wrong type, the opponent one hit KOs you. Fighting back is pointless. You have no chance of winning, no chance at all. So long dreams of winning in a video game. Time to give up, it's pointless. No more winning for you.

Yeah, cause that's how imbalance in a fighting game works. It doesn't matter if you're now a 1-9 matchup, competition is still totally viable as long as it's not a one hit KO.

Again, they intentionally got rid of this, FOR A REASON.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

So, to paraphrase:

• She did do that well on the ballot
• She didn't get in due to the ballot

So I guess she just did well everywhere- she did well on the ballot, and was predetermined. She was going to be chosen anyway, but- hell, she actually turned out to be done exceptionally well and had high votes!

Yeah... I don't think this makes sense.

It's not that farfetched. Wouldn't be the first time they took a gamble on a character who ended up being popular in the long run (). I don't remember Bayonetta being particularly unpopular in the discussion before her inclusion, just dismissed on account of being "not for good boys and girls of all ages", so she could have had a pretty decent fanbase.

Dunno about "done exceptionally well" though considering her place in the meta back then. lol

 

[pupNapoleon]

The interpretation that made the most sense to me was that Bayonetta was the highest scoring realizable character because she was the only realizable character due to being the one that they had already picked.

(How I also interpretted it)

Makes sense to me, even in that case. Either way, it's the truth, just not in a way we expected it. That's why I say realizable has some subjectivity to it. Exactly what category is it, etc.

Yes, but if it is the truth, then the fallacy that we had any say at all is immoral.
Yes- the ballot did also say that the results would be used for Nintendo in future titles; it didn't specific if this was for future Smash titles, other titles, and even more importantly- this seems to have been ignored at the time, and forgotten by people now. Few had insight to see this was for future Smash titles.

But if the ballot was superfluous to the character chosen at the time, then it was not a vote. Even in a vote with one candidate, in any sort of real election, their are rules as to a certain quota the single candidate must reach. The fact that we were given a vote, when the ballots were basically thrown out the window (at the time, anyway), means it had nothing to do with Bayonetta.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Because it's still relevant discussion. We got Banjo in pass 1, so suggesting it "doesn't matter" at this stage is a bit ridiculous to be frank

While it could still affect things at this stage, we can't really use it to predict characters since we don't really know what's on it.

 

[Jondolio]

Because it's still relevant discussion. We got Banjo in pass 1, so suggesting it "doesn't matter" at this stage is a bit ridiculous to be frank

1. He's the only character from the ballot we got in this game's DLC, and he was on the first pass
2. Even so, this feels like less like of a discussion about what the final character could be based on the Ballot and more of a "Bayo bad cause ballot was rigged" discussion which is frankly beating a dead horse

 

[Dinoman96]

I don't think the ballot matters much at this point considering it amounted to only 1/12 of the DLC fighters.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

The ballot could be what determined the final fighter, sure.

Could be the exact opposite. Nintendo was clearly not banking heavily on the ballot itself. There's a lot of business, etc. as is.

 

[NessAtc.]

While it could still affect things at this stage, we can't really use it to predict characters since we don't really know what's on it.

We can actually. By looking at what things got an abnormal amount of fixation within the base game. You know, like Golden Sun, which went from just music in smash 4 to 8 spirits, of all types of classes, an assist trophy (which was a highlighted point within the reel, with the song playing). It seems quite obvious that Isaac did very well on the ballot, with that in mind. Plus, in keeping with the ARMS thing of "no music added" GS, despite it's 7 spirit battles, only has two songs, and uses the same one for six of them.

Could be the exact opposite. Nintendo was clearly not banking heavily on the ballot itself. There's a lot of business, etc. as is.

"Not banking heavily" doesn't mean the same thing as "not banking at all". We went from the ballot shaping most of Ultimate's roster, to it only amounting to one character in Pass 1. If one of their targets for pass 2 is indeed the "core audience" like Banjo was for pass 1, it makes sense to pick one character from the ballot.

I don't think the ballot matters much at this point considering it amounted to only 1/12 of the DLC fighters.

IDK, one "ballot character" per pass seems extremely reasonable to me. The problem is you're taking the DLC as one whole, instead of two separate products, which they are. Pass 1 is a separate product from Pass 2.

 

[DarthEnderX]

So, to paraphrase:

• She did do that well on the ballot
• She didn't get in due to the ballot

So I guess she just did well everywhere- she did well on the ballot, and was predetermined. She was going to be chosen anyway, but- hell, she actually turned out to be done exceptionally well and had high votes!

Yeah... I don't think this makes sense.

It's not rocket science my dude.

The DLC was decided before the ballot. Nintendo claimed one of the DLC characters did well on the ballot. So either:

A. They got lucky and the character did well on the ballot.

or B. They lied about the character doing well on the ballot.

The ballot could be what determined the final fighter, sure.

It wasn't.

We know what the development pipeline for DLC characters is now, and it doesn't fit that timeline.

I don't think the ballot matters much at this point considering it amounted to only 1/12 of the DLC fighters.

You don't really have any way of knowing that given we don't know the results of the ballot. How do you know Steve or Sephiroth or Erdrick didn't do well on the ballot?

 

[Evil Trapezium]

If the ballot is still relevant then this Smash 2 list is still relevant!

Notice how James Bond is the only character yet to be represented in Smash Bros and how James bond is not a video game character but his spiritual successor Sgt. Cortez is?

You know this is just leading into Sgt. Cortez winning so...

Time to Split

 

[Willbuysmash4mw]

I think my least wanted is a toss up between Pokémon and an RPG character that isn't Isaac.

I have nothing against Pokémon other than it has stupid amounts of representation already, and it's just the most obvious choice for Nintendo to make. I haven't played Gen 8, so I have no attachment to any of them. That's not to say other people don't, but can we just...wait til the next one? Thanks.

Then RPG character is kinda funny. I like RPGs, but that doesn't mean I want every RPG character under the sun. I've already got Hero, Cloud and Sephiroth, the only one missing for me is Isaac; that's a personal connection that needs to be realised for me. 18 years of "That would be such a cool moveset to have in Smash." The spotlight on Golden Sun is a bonus at this point.

But screw all you other McJRPGs. I don't want you getting in over Isaac, that sucks. Hero is fine, he's the Grandad of traditional JRPGs and I love him to death. Sephiroth was low key my most wanted Squeenix after Cloud, he's a big deal. Pythra I didn't like, that actually caused me to lose the most hope as I thought the RPG picks were all gone now for Fighters Pass 2. Lloyd from Symphonia, I actually do like! But I knew that if he got in before Isaac I would be so let down, even though I do want him to get there eventually (Isaacbros and Lloydbros for life).

So I'm looking at you, Dragalia Lost, Atelier, PSO, Ys, and SMT. Begone.

SMT deserves it way more than Golden Sun and I say this as someone who loves the series and wants a rep.

Tales deserves it almost as much as SMT because it really started the modern party oriented action RPG battle system with combos and input commands.

But ultimately after Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy SMT comes next.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

We can actually. By looking at what things got an abnormal amount of fixation within the base game. You know, like Golden Sun, which went from just music in smash 4 to 8 spirits, of all types of classes, an assist trophy (which was a highlighted point within the reel, with the song playing). It seems quite obvious that Isaac did very well on the ballot, with that in mind. Plus, in keeping with the ARMS thing of "no music added" GS, despite it's 7 spirit battles, only has two songs, and uses the same one for six of them.

I mean, broadly speaking you can see some things that might have inspired Sakurai to add some things, but we're also 3 years removed from base game where the Ballot had the absolute biggest impact and 6 years from the Ballot itself which between additions that fulfilled requests and an ever evolving landscape and Smash growing in ambition since the ballot, means that the actual ballot itself is, at best, extremely outdated.

 

[NessAtc.]

I mean, broadly speaking you can see some things that might have inspired Sakurai to add some things, but we're also 3 years removed from base game where the Ballot had the absolute biggest impact and 6 years from the Ballot itself which between additions that fulfilled requests and an ever evolving landscape and Smash growing in ambition since the ballot, means that the actual ballot itself is, at best, extremely outdated.

The ballot was already "outdated" at the time Banjo was added, and Sakurai said as much an an interview prior to Banjo. It being outdated means not to fixate it, not to outright ignore it. It's still valuable data, because it's the last data they took for figuring out what the fans wanted.

Plus, even if it's outdated NOW, that doesn't mean that the perception was it was so horribly outdated in 2018/2019, which is when Pass 2 was fully finalized.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

It wasn't.

We know what the development pipeline for DLC characters is now, and it doesn't fit that timeline.

That's not how it works. The Ballot is used for future games and not just one timeline. It 100% fits because it can be used at any time for any game. It's nothing more than a suggestion box they can continue to take from till the final Smash game. That's how it actually works.

Banjo-Kazooie, for instance? That's way after the base game's timeline, meaning it was chosen well after the ballot's "normal timeline" would be(which only could've been used fully for Ultimate's base game and maybe slightly for the final Smash 4 DLC). Unless you actually think BK were not chosen due to the ballot. Though I don't think Sakurai confirmed either way, so it's possible it wasn't directly ballot-related. Somehow I doubt it wasn't a ballot request.

People may be confusing "biggest impact" with what matters; it was told to us it'll be used for future games. So yes, it is relevant to DLC too. It makes sense why it hard affected the base game, and less so DLC. It's absolutely outdated, but still useful in general otherwise for DLC and any new game down the line. We're unlikely to get another ballot at any point anyway. They got useful data(despite it slowly being outdated).

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

The ballot was 6 years ago, a lot of who's hot in the Smash community has changed greatly

Characters like 2B and Joker didn't even exist at that point, and characters like Crash didn't start getting huge support bases for Smash til much later. Then you got characters like Sceptile who probably ranked super high back then thanks to relevancy, but may seem pretty irrelevant now. Needless to say, the ballot is probably a but outdated.

Looking at some of the choices they've added as of recent, it's clear they're still keeping up with the who's popular without the need of sticking to the ballot results

 

[DarthEnderX]

SMT deserves it way more than Golden Sun and I say this as someone who loves the series and wants a rep.

MegaTen already has a rep. Golden Sun doesn't.

That's not how it works. The Ballot is used for future games and not just one timeline. It 100% fits because it can be used at any time for any game. It's nothing more than a suggestion box they can continue to take from till the final Smash game. That's how it actually works.

Sorry. When you said the ballot being used for the final character, I thought you meant Bayonetta.

Yes, you're right, the ballot COULD still be being taken into account for FP11.

The ballot was 6 years ago, a lot of who's hot in the Smash community has changed greatly

Characters like 2B and Joker didn't even exist at that point, and characters like Crash didn't start getting huge support bases for Smash til much later. Then you got characters like Sceptile who probably ranked super high back then thanks to relevancy, but may seem pretty irrelevant now. Needless to say, the ballot is probably a but outdated.

And most importantly, a lot of the most voted for characters are now probably in Smash.

Which would free up all those voters for other characters.

 

[Jondolio]

That "ballot will have influence on the final fighter" mindset will inevitably lead to disappointment when the final character is revealed to be Cinderace

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

When we get the Sakurai helmed licensed platform fighter starring Goku and Shrek, then we'll know what the ballot votes were really used for.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

We can actually. By looking at what things got an abnormal amount of fixation within the base game. You know, like Golden Sun, which went from just music in smash 4 to 8 spirits, of all types of classes, an assist trophy (which was a highlighted point within the reel, with the song playing). It seems quite obvious that Isaac did very well on the ballot, with that in mind. Plus, in keeping with the ARMS thing of "no music added" GS, despite it's 7 spirit battles, only has two songs, and uses the same one for six of them.

The lack of music isn't an indication of DLC plans though. For Golden Sun especially they most likely just didn't add much music because it's Golden Sun.

And I get the point about seeing the results of the ballot, but we can only do that retroactively, and just because something did well doesn't mean it will get a character. Even if Golden Sun did well, it's only chance is them wanting to start the series back up, which clearly isn't what they want by this point. At least, not now while the final fighter would line up for the release.

That "ballot will have influence on the final fighter" mindset will inevitably lead to disappointment when the final character is revealed to be Cinderace

Woah there. Try not to conflate "can" with "will". The argument is that the final fighter could be a ballot pick.

 

[NessAtc.]

The ballot was 6 years ago, a lot of who's hot in the Smash community has changed greatly

Characters like 2B and Joker didn't even exist at that point, and characters like Crash didn't start getting huge support bases for Smash til much later. Then you got characters like Sceptile who probably ranked super high back then thanks to relevancy, but may seem pretty irrelevant now. Needless to say, the ballot is probably a but outdated.

Looking at some of the choices they've added as of recent, it's clear they're still keeping up with the who's popular without the need of sticking to the ballot results

That doesn't mean that they can't and won't use the ballot at all. They already did, because they added Banjo. It's non-negotiable that it's a factor to consider.

Also, note how of the characters you describe, Joker is the only one who made it in. Everything else predates the era you're describing(Minus Byleth ofc).

The lack of music isn't an indication of DLC plans though. For Golden Sun especially they most likely just didn't add much music because it's Golden Sun.

...and they added much more spirits than the average series why again?

There's no reason they shouldn't have added just one additional song. I mean, his theme's not even in the game.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

I just think it’s funny that people bring up conspiracy theories as to how and why Bayonetta didn’t do well and win the ballot when the only official information we have is that she did well in it. Bayonetta won the final DLC spot for Sm4sh that should be it, end of story, but for some reason Smash Fans need some sort of affirmation that the character they didn’t want wasn’t popular. It’s intriguing to put it lightly.

 

[pupNapoleon]

The ballot also may have had to do with other characters- I mean, if Steve was in development/neogitation for five years, that seems to pretty clearly say he was influenced by the ballot. It could have been how we got Hero, Sephiroth, Terry, even Kazuya.
Saying only Banjo was a ballot choice is based on little evidence.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Well Arle and Phoenix Wright are the front runners at Sega and Capcom respectively and both cover genres with little to no character representation (Dr Mario alone for puzzle and no-one for VN) but outside of them they could also do what Square did and expand and existing series. Sonic, Megami Tensei, Street Fighter and Mega Man have no shortage of characters.

I would put Resident Evil back in the running for a rep. It's spirit board was on Pass 1.

 

[NessAtc.]

The ballot also may have had to do with other characters- I mean, if Steve was in development/neogitation for five years, that seems to pretty clearly say he was influenced by the ballot. It could have been how we got Hero, Sephiroth, Terry, even Kazuya.
Saying only Banjo was a ballot choice is based on little evidence.

Banjo was the only one mentioned to be a ballot choice whatsoever. Sure, those characters were likely on the ballot to an extent, but it played zero role in their addition; that's why Sakurai never mentioned it for anyone other than Banjo.

 

[Jondolio]

Woah there. Try not to conflate "can" with "will". The argument is that the final fighter could be a ballot pick

I'm just saying.
It's best to prepare for disappointment rather than be blindsided by it.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

That doesn't mean that they can't and won't use the ballot at all. They already did, because they added Banjo. It's non-negotiable that it's a factor to consider.

Also, note how of the characters you describe, Joker is the only one who made it in. Everything else predates the era you're describing.

My point bringing up those characters is that they were extremely popular ones that have popped up as of current, probably should've worded things better.

In terms of popular post ballot characters we did get though, we got Joker, Pyrthra(moreso Rex/Xenoblade 2 in this case), and I'd probably add the likes of Steve and Sephiroth there too, cuz while they were around then, I'd say their popularity exploded after the ballot

 

[pupNapoleon]

If the ballot is still relevant then this Smash 2 list is still relevant!

View attachment 329403

Notice how James Bond is the only character yet to be represented in Smash Bros and how James bond is not a video game character but his spiritual successor Sgt. Cortez is?

You know this is just leading into Sgt. Cortez winning so...

Time to Split

View attachment 329407

I see where you're going with this....
Sgt Cortez sounds like Neo Cortex
And who is the enemy of Neo Cortex?

Ah! All this time I thought you were pushing a Bubsy on me, when in reality, you were just rooting for Crash.
I totally misinterpretted all of your prior posts.

 

[The Rhythm Theif]

If the ballot is still relevant then this Smash 2 list is still relevant!

View attachment 329403

Notice how James Bond is the only character yet to be represented in Smash Bros and how James bond is not a video game character but his spiritual successor Sgt. Cortez is?

You know this is just leading into Sgt. Cortez winning so...

Time to Split

View attachment 329407

BRUH, Ash Ketchum was planned to be in Melee?!

I mean, it makes sense. Pokemon Puzzle League is a thing.

 

[pupNapoleon]

SMT deserves it way more than Golden Sun and I say this as someone who loves the series and wants a rep.

Tales deserves it almost as much as SMT because it really started the modern party oriented action RPG battle system with combos and input commands.

But ultimately after Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy SMT comes next.

Bro.... no.
If we are going to do comparisons... let's compare Nintendo RPGs.
We have EVERY SINGLE Nintendo RPG series (not spinoff) have MULTIPLE characters in Smash. Except for 2.
Fossil Fighter.
Golden Sun.

If we are extending to third parties, when does the list ever stop? There will always be a 'next most influential/top selling' RPG after all the ones in. It is ad infinum. There is not a barrier short of 'total number of RPG series ever made.'

Let's go back to home. Let's get Isaac.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

The mention of Koei-Tecmo got me thinking, what are the realistic chances of the last fighter belonging to a third party company that hasn't had a character yet, whether it's of the Activision type (with nothing in Smash so far) or an Ubisoft or Bethesda variety (Mii costumes, but no actual fighter)?

I've gone over in my head various possibilities, but I do confess its odd to imagine a brand new company suddenly getting a major character (the final one at that) when the last new one to emerge was two years ago with SNK's Terry.

 

[Iko MattOrr]

Now if only they could just bring back the Spacie Killer...

(Note: The victims playing Fox & Falco in this video were actually good players.)

The nostalgia...
Melee Kirby is nowhere near as bad as people think... I'm glad that at least he's not last anymore in the tier list.
This video made me want to play some Melee as Kirby again after years.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

...and they added much more spirits than the average series why again?

There's no reason they shouldn't have added just one additional song. I mean, his theme's not even in the game.

You'd have a point if track selection wasn't super random, especially for the songs that fall in the "other" category. It's also possible that the teams doing the Spirits and selecting the music weren't the same or even coordinating.

Also, it could easily be the case that they said "Isaac did well on the ballot, add a bunch of Golden Sun Spirits" and left it at that, or that they gave Golden Sun a bunch of spirits because Isaac was an Assist Trophy. There's no real way of telling other than it's likely that the ballot made Isaac an Assist Trophy.