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Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

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3BitSaurus

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Your choice to believe does not affect whether or not it is true.
Uh... same for you?

Like... I don't think even the most diehard fans of the franchises involved in the leaks you mentioned are buying them. Not even the people who gave us correct info in the past have anything concrete to give us right now, and yet somehow we got CP11 plus 3 or 4 characters leaked from 2022, possibly beyond?

That should have been the first red flag.
 

Dinoman96

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For example, SMT IV was in a similar, if not better, position last game. It was a major third party, published by Nintendo, that sold well and had a very positive reception. It came out before Smash 4 released, so it had plenty of time for the team to get to grips with the character, but there were still upcoming SMT games on 3DS to promote.
I don't think it was? Wikipedia lists SMT4 being published by Atlus/Atlus USA in Japan and US, and Deep Silver for PAL regions.
 
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Theguy123

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A low budget game on the 3DS is not even remotely the same as a high budget game that debuted with the Switch.
ohhh boy, where’s my doomguy then since Nintendo is promoting doom heavily or where’s my Pokémon reps or where’s my sonic forces rep or where’s my sonic colours rep since all these games are getting heavily promoted and are high budget games.
 
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RileyXY1

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ohhh boy, where’s my doomguy then since Nintendo is promoting doom heavily or where’s my Pokémon reps or where’s my sonic forces rep or where’s my sonic colours rep since all these games are getting heavily probabaly and are high budget games.
Exactly. As people have being saying since Ultimate was released, getting a game on the Switch /= getting into Smash.
 

Dinoman96

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When it's said and done, barring one more surprise, it seems like Banjo and Kazuya will probably be the two DLC fighters without a game on Switch. Though obviously they've had games published on Nintendo systems before.
 

Cutie Gwen

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ohhh boy, where’s my doomguy then since Nintendo is promoting doom heavily or where’s my Pokémon reps or where’s my sonic forces rep or where’s my sonic colours rep since all these games are getting heavily promoted and are high budget games.
Ehhhhh, Pokemon games are never big budget, Forces was a budget title seeing as it wasn't even sold for 60 bucks and they scrapped the paid DLC after massive backlash while Colours is merely a port, it doesn't actually counter the argument
 

PSIGuy

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Worst case scenario, if they locked in an SMT rep but couldn't get Nahobino to work or the entire SMTV staff fell into a blackhole, they could always fall back onto a different SMT character. Like how they cut Rex when he was too difficult to include with Pyra/Mythra or were willing to use Slime if DQ Heroes weren't available. They either would've greenlit Nahobino at the start of the year when their SMTV plans for E3 and beyond were planned out or scrapped it for something else. That's the benefit of leaving the most recent character for last, like they did the last two times they had DLC fighter waves.
 

MattX20

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ohhh boy, where’s my doomguy then since Nintendo is promoting doom heavily or where’s my Pokémon reps or where’s my sonic forces rep or where’s my sonic colours rep since all these games are getting heavily promoted and are high budget games.
When it's said and done, barring one more surprise, it seems like Banjo and Kazuya will probably be the two DLC fighters without a game on Switch. Though obviously they've had games published on Nintendo systems before.
It's why I'm looking at characters like Phoenix Wright and Fulgore from KI as an unexpected darkhorse pick for example when it comes to who FP11 might be. Smash Bros DLC typically ended with noteworthy characters but not genre defining like Crash Bandicoot or Master Chief or ones meant to be pass sellers.
 
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Cutie Gwen

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It's why I'm looking at characters like Phoenix Wright and Fulgore from KI as an unexpected darkhorse pick for example when it comes to who FP11 might be. Smash Bros DLC typically ended with noteworthy characters but not genre defining like Crash Bandicoot or Master Chief.
That doesn't really have anything to do with their points not to mention Wright actually does count as genre defining as he's the first thing most people think of when they hear visual novels, certainly bigger for the respective genre than say, Crash
 

MattX20

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That doesn't really have anything to do with their points not to mention Wright actually does count as genre defining as he's the first thing most people think of when they hear visual novels, certainly bigger for the respective genre than say, Crash
I was trying to say that the people who are thinking that FP11's a guaranteed shill pick when in reality that seems unlikely, and none of the fighters introduced in DLC went past 2019 as far as game releases go. It's why I'm looking at characters that had games in their respective franchises prior to 2017, and Ace Attorney and KI fit the bill along with others that fit the development timeline like Puyo Puyo's Arle, Phantasy Star, and Soul Calibur amongst others. Just because a game is on the Switch is no guarantee for inclusion
 
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Dinoman96

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My unpopular opinion is that I don't really see what would make Nintendo interested in Ace Attorney if they had skipped over Resident Evil and Monster Hunter.

I mentioned this before but pretty much every third party company in Smash is repped by their biggest series and mascots: Microsoft has Minecraft, SEGA has Sonic and Persona (which is Atlus' biggest IP), SNK has Terry, Namco has Pac-Man and Tekken, Square-Enix has Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest, etc. The only real exceptions are again, Banjo-Kazooie and Bayonetta, the two highly requested characters who also have the notable distinction of appearing in games orginally or currently published by Nintendo.

So yes, if Nintendo seemingly wasn't interested in including a rep from Capcom's two biggest IPs this time around, I'm not sure what would make them so interested in a character from a far smaller series like AA. The only thing I think Nick kinda has in his favour is fan demand...but I'm not sure if his fan demand is really enough to turn heads at Nintendo. He feels like Rayman/Lloyd tier to me, Those characters also have always had decent Smash followings but it still wasn't enough to make them playable.
 

Theguy123

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I still think the last character is gonna be a character that doesn’t have a game to promote on the switch. Even though pass 2 isn’t to promote anything, each character in pass 2 on the smash website all have a link to games they have on the switch apart form kazuya so that’s still some sort of promoting right there.

since pass 1 had 2 characters that didn’t promote anything, those being joker and banjo, I feel well get 1 more character that doesn’t have a game on the switch yet so that we’ll have 2 characters in both passes that don’t have links on the smash website to promote games on the switch

that’s my take on what I think will Happen though so don’t take it as facts or anything because it’s not.
 

SNEKeater

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This has been annoying tbh. I'd like to have a SMT rep, and if it was Nahobino I'd be happy. I know most wouldn't be because "shill pick" and the fact that CP11 will have to deal with a lot of **** regardless of who they are, but while he's not my most wanted I think he would be a neat pick.

However this discussion is kinda pointless, at this point everyone has explained their stance on the matter multiple times during the last few weeks. No one is going to change their mind if it hasn't happened by now. And next Direct is 99% happening next month so all of this will probably end soon.

I'm just going to say the notion that an entire Pass being designed around a single character is just dumb. At the same time, Nahobino's best opportunity is certainly CP11 for obvious reasons. But even if he ended being the last fighter, it wouldn't mean Nintendo would have planned this entire Pass only for Nahobino. If they only wanted him they could have just not done a second pass and just announce Nahobino as a standalone DLC fighter.
 
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GilTheGreat19

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I feel like every new pattern we can come up with somehow gets crushed or disproven by either characters or spirits or what not.
So while I may look at a pattern and see the logic behind the pattern and idea, I think assuming the pattern isn’t real, meaning the pattern doesn’t align with what’s to come in Smash, is a good move.
 

Þe 1 → Way

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I’m still not that shaken on SMTV or Nahobino tbh.

SMTV looks like a legit good game and I’ll probably pick it up when it comes out (if I’m not still broke that is)

Nahobino has a decent shot imo. Crackpot timelines aside hes got a good bit going for him. Fan demand, reason to be promoted, worldwide popularity, hes certainly a possibility.

I’ve got a lot of friends who are SMT fans so if nothing else I can be happy for them if he does get in.
 
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Theguy123

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My unpopular opinion is that I don't really see what would make Nintendo interested in Ace Attorney if they had skipped over Resident Evil and Monster Hunter.

I mentioned this before but pretty much every third party company in Smash is repped by their biggest series and mascots: Microsoft has Minecraft, SEGA has Sonic and Persona (which is Atlus' biggest IP), SNK has Terry, Namco has Pac-Man and Tekken, Square-Enix has Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest, etc. The only real exceptions are again, Banjo-Kazooie and Bayonetta, the two highly requested characters who also have the notable distinction of appearing in games orginally or currently published by Nintendo.

So yes, if Nintendo seemingly wasn't interested in including a rep from Capcom's two biggest IPs this time around, I'm not sure what would make them so interested in a character from a far smaller series like AA. The only thing I think Nick kinda has in his favour is fan demand...but I'm not sure if his fan demand is really enough to turn heads at Nintendo. He feels like Rayman/Lloyd tier to me, Those characters also have always had decent Smash followings but it still wasn't enough to make them playable.
people are forgetting that Nintendo doesn’t necessarily look at who’s more popular. They look at who offers more value in terms of uniqueness. One of the first things sakurai said when pass 1 was announced was that each character would bring something unique to the table in terms of move set which makes it clear that sakurai’s and Nintendo’s goals aren’t picking who’s more popular, it’s more of who’s more unique.

I can see someone like Phoenix Wright beating out monster Hunter, resident evil etc because it probably offers a better gimmick moveset which is one of their main goals.

just like how pyra and mythra beat out rex because they had a better gimmick

Just like how kazuya beat out heihachi because he has the devil form which has a Recovery and a better gimmick

just like how Steve beat out other Microsoft reps like chief because the gimmick potential was probably better (alongside the fact that minecraft is also the best selling game)
 
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Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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people are forgetting that Nintendo doesn’t necessarily look at who’s more popular. They look at who offers more value in terms of uniqueness. One of the first things sakurai said when pass 1 was announced was that each character would bring something unique to the table in terms of move set which makes it clear that sakurai’s and Nintendo’s goals aren’t picking who’s more popular, it’s more of who’s more unique.

I can see someone like Phoenix Wright beating out monster Hunter, resident evil etc because it probably offers a better gimmick moveset which is one of their main goals.

just like how pyra and mythra beat out rex because they had a better gimmick

Just like how kazuya beat out heihachi because he has the devil form which has a Recovery and a better gimmick

just like how Steve beat out other Microsoft reps like chief because the gimmick potential was probably better (alongside the fact that minecraft is also the best selling game)
Pyra and Mythra isn't a good example. Rex was going to already be part of the moveset. It just didn't work out due to technical limitations.

Steve probably isn't worth mentioning since he got beat out by BK first, but yeah, Steve was clearly more likely than most anyway, but that's more due to being a large gaming icon alone than just a unique ability.

Kazuya is the only really good example here.

That said, there can be other reasons. Sakurai may have not thought of a good way to implement RE stuff in a way he finds satisfactory, and he might outright agree with MH being better represented by the Monsters. Phoenix Wright being next to the block is still logical if others couldn't make it.

While the examples aren't great, "being the biggest series" is clearly not all there is to it. Hence BK getting in before Minecraft(but it sounds like Minecraft was chosen first anyway, but uniqueness doesn't sound like why. Bigger series in this case. It just took longer for it to come to fruition instead).
 

Theguy123

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Pyra and Mythra beat out Rex due to technical limitations. Having Rex fight with Pyra and Mythra was going to be too much for the Switch to handle so they dropped Rex.
there’s that but then you gotta look at it this way. They could’ve just done Rex and didn’t need to add pyra and mythra but sakurai thought the pyra and mythra swapping was a better mechanic than Rex on his own.

He even says something along the lines of thinking the swapping mechanic is better. Therefore pyra and mythra beat out Rex down to having a better gimmick in a way.
 

Willbuysmash4mw

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ohhh boy, where’s my doomguy then since Nintendo is promoting doom heavily or where’s my Pokémon reps or where’s my sonic forces rep or where’s my sonic colours rep since all these games are getting heavily probabaly and are high budget games.
First of all, none of those games fit the timing for fighter pass 2, whereas SMT V more than fits the timing(despite your earlier post, which makes this post incredibly hypocritical on your part).

Second of all, Doom Slayer was deconfirmed last year. Sword and Shield is the only Pokémon game that could get in and that was deconfirmed by the spirit event(after the 2nd pass was decided), and all of the relevant Sonic characters are deconfirmed by mii costumes or assist trophies.


The reason why Nahobino keeps coming up isn’t because I am obnoxious or obsessed or hopeful, it is because as PapaGenos said, “he is almost too obvious” and no one else even remotely seems as likely. SMT V is not just one of the only games left that perfectly fits the timing of pass 2 but literally is the only game that fits that timing AND is very relevant today.

You can hope for characters that have no games coming out, or for characters with no games on the Switch, or that deconfirmed 1st parties and 3rd parties are somehow coming, or characters from recent ports of old games are coming etc; but unless you can literally prove that a character big enough to jumpstart Smash Ultimate again(arguably impossible) or to at least satisfy the hype people have for the final slot is more likely than Nahobino, then not only will I not stop being certain about this character, but I will go as far as to say that you might as well accept that Nahobino is the final character right now.

We have no real leaks, we have deconfirmed tons if not all of the most highly speculated characters and the only things we seemingly know about pack 11 all point to or can easily apply to Nahobino and SMT V.
I am not even remotely the only person who is extremely confident Nahobino is the final fighter right now, nor am I the first person to be confident about it(despite the fact that I am probably the first person to guess Nahobino as pack 11 as a hunch when the 2nd pass was revealed).
 

LiveStudioAudience

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If Nahobino's the final fighter, fantastic.

But as someone who has seen this particular song and dance about other fighter's inevitability before, and witnessed a particularly passionate variation of it in the Geno thread many a time? I would just be careful about counting one's chickens before they hatch, especially with a game that has so often zigged when a lot of fans expected it to zag.
 
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Theguy123

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First of all, none of those games fit the timing for fighter pass 2, whereas SMT V more than fits the timing(despite your earlier post, which makes this post incredibly hypocritical on your part).

Second of all, Doom Slayer was deconfirmed last year. Sword and Shield is the only Pokémon game that could get in and that was deconfirmed by the spirit event(after the 2nd pass was decided), and all of the relevant Sonic characters are deconfirmed by mii costumes or assist trophies.
dr eggman, metal sonic, classic sonic that’s options right there who are big to the series and aren’t mii costumed or AT’d.

not to mention AT’s don’t even decomfirm. We have literal evidence to literally prove that sakurai doesn’t care about if a character is an AT. If he wants a character he’ll got and get one. Assist don’t deconfirm
 

Dinoman96

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just like how pyra and mythra beat out rex because they had a better gimmick

Just like how kazuya beat out heihachi because he has the devil form which has a Recovery and a better gimmick
These aren't really what I'm even talking about, though.

The first case is a XB2 character getting over another XB2 character. The other case is a Tekken character getting in over another Tekken character. What I'm talking about is basically Tekken getting in over smaller Namco IPs like Tales because you know, it is Namco's biggest IP overall.

And I already addressed Banjo being a very special case, same thing with Bayonetta. If Phoenix Wright really does have Banjo/Mega Man/etc. levels of fan demand then yeah maybe I could see him happening, but I kinda don't think that's the case.
 
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Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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dr eggman, metal sonic, classic sonic that’s options right there who are big to the series and aren’t mii costumed or AT’d.

not to mention AT’s don’t even decomfirm. We have literal evidence to literally prove that sakurai doesn’t care about if a character is an AT. If he wants a character he’ll got and get one. Assist don’t deconfirm
To be fair, that guessing game was more for Nintendo. Sakurai may have never looked at Spring Man again or had dismissed him when brought up again due to his role. We at best can determine Nintendo doesn't care about those in-game roles. Sakurai we can't say for sure. I mean, I don't think he would say no if he was asked to use Spring Man either, but we lack details to determine that. All we know so far is that Min Min was the only actual choice ever brought up(and Sakurai said he would've liked Ninjara too otherwise), and the guessing game was an advertisement to help push ARMS, one that was, again, for Nintendo's sake. Nintendo even listing an AT in this case is still good news, since that mans they don't consider an AT to matter in their selections. Albeit, with the context known, Yabuki chose the character, not Sakurai, either way. And with Sakurai's statements, it's clear that Nintendo had told Sakurai to use Min Min due to Yabuki choosing the character overall. In all these scenarios, there's no straight evidence that Sakurai considers AT's to not matter.

Spirits obviously aren't a hard disconfirmation(the timing might matter, though). If they were, Sakurai wouldn't have said yes to ones like Pyra/Mythra.
 

Willbuysmash4mw

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dr eggman, metal sonic, classic sonic that’s options right there who are big to the series and aren’t mii costumed or AT’d.

not to mention AT’s don’t even decomfirm. We have literal evidence to literally prove that sakurai doesn’t care about if a character is an AT. If he wants a character he’ll got and get one. Assist don’t deconfirm
Tails, Knuckles and even Shadow are all more likely than Dr Eggman, Dr Eggman is a pure bandwagon pick.

All of these characters have spirits and most of them have miis and assist trophies. We are not getting another Sonic character in Ultimate.
 

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chocolatejr9

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Þe 1 → Way

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Tails, Knuckles and even Shadow are all more likely than Dr Eggman, Dr Eggman is a pure bandwagon pick.

All of these characters have spirits and most of them have miis and assist trophies. We are not getting another Sonic character in Ultimate.
…why?
He’s literally the main antagonist of the series. He’s been around longer than any of them and is consistently in more important roles than them.
 
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Theguy123

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Stick Nahobino into that color background and tell me it doesn’t work.
nahobino’s would be blue, not purple so he probably wouldn’t fit this. That’s assuming the last background for the last character is purple which we have no concrete proof anyways. I wouldn’t even take this seriously. It’s just a theory from what I understand of the original source.
 

SKX31

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Not to mention the teams were working on multiple characters at once. Which begs the question: if December was always the deadline, they could have spaced the others out more instead of basically giving us a character every 2 and a half months sunce June 2020.

So yeah, unless this specific character is somehow more insane than Mr. "We had to reprogram all stages", then there's no reason to stretch things out more than they need to.
And like, this would also imply that the team had just, not worked on CP11 at all until around Kazuya dropping more or less, which seems... extremely doubtful.



If there were like, 2 characters left, then yeah, I could see it, but it's 1.
The only scenarios I can see that is if they either:

A) Pull a FighterZ and introduce one or several mechanics changes in a big balance patch to accomondate CP11. Which... is a major stretch since they did rework all stages so that Steve could work.
B) Have a character that like :ultminmin breaks the normal conventions so hard that they have to beta-test and finetune CP11's strengths and weaknesses for a long time. And if this happens, chances are the character has polarized strengths and weaknesses like Min Min (or hell, any ARMS character - had Ninjara been chosen he'd also be as convention-breaking). Not only was the initial ARMS announcement accompanied with the "We'll have to extend the development time" message, Sakurai did note in Min Min's Presents that "Integrating ARMS into Super Smash Bros. Ultimate was a very difficult thing to do", which is fair when no other character has access to Dhalsim-esque range. And really, the only way I could see COVID impacting development is if that delayed the groundwork for Min Min / Steve / Sephiroth. Which feels a bit fishy since Steve and Sephiroth released on a steady schedule despite being complex characters that instantly followed another really complex character (Min Min).

They did have to finetune Steve as well - in his Sakurai Presents he could place blocks farther away from the stage than when he released. Which does undermine Scenario B's plausibility a bit considering the "rework every stage" issue. Also, Scenario B would require CP11 to be even more convention-bending on the battlefield itself than even Steve was to begin with, which means the bar's really high.

So, yeah, I'm doubting either of those to say the least.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/79625957

thoughts on this. Just wanted to share this. Get a bit of a discussion going on something else after today’s and last nights quite heated debates.
Purple?

Dark Orchid?

Dota 2 confirmed, baybee - since that game loves dark purple. On several heroes (incl. one of Dota 2's poster children) and the recently-concluded Nemestice event (plus the Orchid Malevolence item). :4pacman:

(Also, calling epicmartin7 so we can see if this insanity is consistent with his math. If it is this is gonna be even more absurd.)
 
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GilTheGreat19

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So on that shade of purple..
Give me a bit y'all, I wanna go back to EpicMartin7's color predictions. One color he got was purple using his statistics.

I'd like to see if the RGB hex codes of the shades of purple match or heavily mirror Dark Orchid's hex code, which is 9932CC.
 
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MattX20

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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/79625957

thoughts on this. Just wanted to share this. Get a bit of a discussion going on something else after today’s and last nights quite heated debates.
Well, after searching this webpage https://cdn.treasuredata.com/sdk/1.9.2/td.min.js , I can confirm that darkorchid is in the code for that website. It does basically confirm that purple will be the last background color for our last fighter
 
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