Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[Mapusaurus]

Y'all talkin the one with 40 dudes on it, right? What I call "the pitch meeting list". AKA a bunch of suits got around the table and threw names at a whiteboard, and then from that list they had a higher rank super top level of suits and producers and such actually cull it to what might actually be possible (behind closed doors hence why our 4chan leaker wouldn't know which ones were picked ultimately) and then brought it to Sakurai asking if it could be done.

SUPPOSING that it's true and not total malarkey, and there there are no more Min Min "Nintendo producers said you HAVE to put in this character for sure" type situations, then FROM THAT LIST, my predictions for the final three are (in no particular order) :

1. Chun-Li or Shantae
2. Porky or Hayabusa
3. Crash or Spyro

So yeah. The last three IMO (under the presumption that this list of pitched ideas is true) are either Shantae, Hayabusa and Crash or Chun-li, Porky and Spyro.

honestly I cant see a world where shantae gets in as playable tbh.

 

[Dinoman96]

I think both Banjo and Bayonetta are in a special category in that they're both third party owned franchises with games that were published worldwide by Nintendo, essentially making them "honorary Nintendo characters".

Fun fact: The only other third party series repped in Smash that falls under this would be...Final Fantasy, thanks to Crystal Chronicles back on the GCN. But unlike BK/BT and Bayo 2 it's nowhere to be found in Ultimate.

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

Not trying to start a debate but saying that Lara Croft has passed her prime compared to Samus is a little funny considering the state of Metroid franchise in the... last decade, really.

A very true and valid point, but I wouldn’t call it funny.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Tbh I still remember during Smash For's speculation scene when someone unironically stated Pac-Man wouldn't make the cut because he wasn't as big a deal to video games as Megaman.

Smashboards occasionally has a weird view on who is considered 'iconic' so take it with a pinch of salt.

 

[Faso115]

This is video i mentioned a few pages ago

So i love how Geno fits all the calculations these guys made....only to still be a Mii costume. Guess not even math could save Geno.

I do wonder where did that top 25 come from. Probably a poll they made but i don't think Crash Bandicoot is the TOP 1 most requested in the smash community.

 

[Froggy]

This is bias. While preferences obviously exist, it's telling you said you'd rather not have her.


Bruh no way in hell is Prime 4 gonna sell over 4 million copies, Metroid's NEVER been a heavy hitting franchise and 4 million's seen as low considering the rest of the reboot trilogy sold like 7 million each.

I don't want Lara in because her in likely de-confirms Sora(spare me the owned by Disney argument) after he gets in I am all welcoming to Lara.

Metroid Prime undersole because it was release when Nintendo was at thier lowest. In case you are unaware from the N64 onwards the Nintendo's consoles has been in a constant state of decline, and Nintendo was brought back as a leader in gaming sales only after the release of the Nintendo Switch. Which is why franchises such as Anime Crossing and Smash Brothers, are selling better now than they ever have before. If a New Metroid game was released it would see a spike in sales as well.

Not trying to start a debate but saying that Lara Croft has passed her prime compared to Samus is a little funny considering the state of Metroid franchise in the... last decade, really.

Metroid has always been something of a cult hit, living in the shadow or Mario and Zelda. Its the Wonder Woman of the Nintendo Trilogy basically. Compared to what Lara Croft did in the 90s, she is absolutely in a decline looking at her relevance now vs back then.

 

[Dinoman96]

Tbh I still remember during Smash For's speculation scene when someone unironically stated Pac-Man wouldn't make the cut because he wasn't as big a deal to video games as Megaman.

Smashboards occasionally has a weird view on who is considered 'iconic' so take it with a pinch of salt.

I'm pretty sure most of the Pac hate back in Smash 4 was just people being terrified at the thought of THIS thing getting in

Ghostly Adventures was a thing that existed during the 2013-2014 period of Smash 4 speculation, so naturally people thought that this was what we were gonna get and thus tried rationalizing Pac-Man not getting in because of it.

 

[osby]

I don't want Lara in because her in likely de-confirms Sora(spare me the owned by Disney argument) after he gets in I am all welcoming to Lara.

Metroid Prime undersole because it was release when Nintendo was at thier lowest. In case you are unaware from the N64 onwards the Nintendo's consoles has been in a constant state of decline, and Nintendo was brought back as a leader in gaming sales only after the release of the Nintendo Switch. Which is why franchises such as Anime Crossing and Smash Brothers, are selling better now than they ever have before. If a New Metroid game was released it would see a spike in sales as well.

Wait, how does Nintendo's consoles have been in a state of decline when Wii was a thing?

 

[cothero]

I wish that I could unsee that.

What are you talking about? Everyone's in their beautiful, natural forms there.


In their quarantine forms.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I'd say Metroid had the bad fortune of being a darker franchise that Nintendo has struggled to market, not being popular in Japan (thus being less of an overall priority), and not being as active in the last 13 years as the Metroidvania genre as gotten bigger among fans.

Its the IP so many respect but fewer seem as inclined to buy first hand.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Ronald can fight.

May I call your attention to these two masterpieces?

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

Metroid Prime undersole because it was release when Nintendo was at thier lowest. In case you are unaware from the N64 onwards the Nintendo's consoles has been in a constant state of decline, and Nintendo was brought back as a leader in gaming sales only after the release of the Nintendo Switch. Which is why franchises such as Anime Crossing and Smash Brothers, are selling better now than they ever have before. If a New Metroid game was released it would see a spike in sales as well.



Metroid has always been something of a cult hit, living in the shadow or Mario and Zelda. Its the Wonder Woman of the Nintendo Trilogy basically. Compared to what Lara Croft did in the 90s, she is absolutely in a decline looking at her relevance now vs back then.

I mean, the Wii and DS are both two of the best selling consoles ever, with Metroid games that still didn’t do particularly well.

 

[YoshiandToad]

I'm pretty sure most of the Pac hate back in Smash 4 was just people being terrified at the thought of THIS thing getting in

Ghostly Adventures was a thing that existed during the 2013-2014 period of Smash 4 speculation, so naturally people thought that this was what we were gonna get and thus tried rationalizing Pac-Man not getting in because of it.

This is true I remember the Ghostly Adventures hate, but the argument of 'not a big deal to video games' was probably the worst angle they could have gone for.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I mean, the Wii and DS are both two of the best selling consoles ever, with Metroid games that still didn’t do particularly well.

To be fair with the former one of the games got a bad reputation early on (Other M) and the two releases on the latter were spin-offs (Pinball and Hunters) that didn't exactly speak to the best aspects of the core games.

 

[DX_E]

Metroid Prime undersole because it was release when Nintendo was at thier lowest. In case you are unaware from the N64 onwards the Nintendo's consoles has been in a constant state of decline, and Nintendo was brought back as a leader in gaming sales only after the release of the Nintendo Switch. Which is why franchises such as Anime Crossing and Smash Brothers, are selling better now than they ever have before. If a New Metroid game was released it would see a spike in sales as well.



Metroid has always been something of a cult hit, living in the shadow or Mario and Zelda. Its the Wonder Woman of the Nintendo Trilogy basically. Compared to what Lara Croft did in the 90s, she is absolutely in a decline looking at her relevance now vs back then.

Metroid Prime 3 and trilogy released on the Wii when Nintendo were at their highest...

Tomb Raider is still a strong franchise. The fan base is going crazy about an unreleased 10th anniversary game's data files being imported and made into a playable state. It's Tomb Raiders 25th Anniversary this year and people are clamouring for a new game or a re-release of the original games. Another Tomb Raider movie is also being made.

 

[Faso115]

Ryu had a similar issue where people somehow assumed Fighting Games couldn't get character for some reason.

Only in smash bros one can get blindsided by big icons like Ryu or Pacman, because somehow they don't fit our quote for speculation.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I don't want Lara in because her in likely de-confirms Sora(spare me the owned by Disney argument) after he gets in I am all welcoming to Lara.

Metroid Prime undersole because it was release when Nintendo was at thier lowest. In case you are unaware from the N64 onwards the Nintendo's consoles has been in a constant state of decline, and Nintendo was brought back as a leader in gaming sales only after the release of the Nintendo Switch. Which is why franchises such as Anime Crossing and Smash Brothers, are selling better now than they ever have before. If a New Metroid game was released it would see a spike in sales as well.

This is untrue as the Wii sold exceptionally well to the point of beating the ps3 and 360 yet the Wii game didn't sell as well as the Gamecube game, the best selling Metroid game being Prime 1

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

To be fair with the former one of the games got a bad reputation early on (Other M) and the two releases on the latter were spin-offs (Pinball and Hunters) that didn't exactly speak to the best aspects of the core games.

I was moreso referring to Prime 3 and Trilogy. Hunters was given crazy spotlight too.

 

[Dinoman96]

Ryu had a similar issue where people somehow assumed Fighting Games couldn't get character for some reason.

Only in smash bros one can get blindsided by big icons like Ryu or Pacman, because somehow they don't fit our quote for speculation.

I think that was just based on a mistranslation of an interview with Sakurai.

Sakurai Didn’t Say That!

Today we are looking at possible misinformation! A must read for everyone involved in the community.

sourcegaming.info

 

[cothero]

Not an expert about the character but I feel this is indeed an interesting case. I feel Lara Croft might be in a somewhat similar situation to Crash 10 years ago, where the lack of new games made people to not talk a lot about Crash. Of course, the latest Tomb Raider game was released in 2018, but I always had the feeling the reboot series never gained as much attention and talk as the classic games did.

Also, as Froggy has said, I also feel Lara Croft is more a case of a character being iconic rather than popular. 2 different things. Not that she's not popular, but in all the 10? years since I started keeping in touch with gaming news everyday, I honestly have never got the impression at all of she being a more popular character than names like Crash Bandicoot, Snake, some RE protagonists such as Leon, Chris or Jill, Dante, Sora, Spyro or Kratos, to name a few characters strongly associated with Playstation that are less recognizable in mainstream circles than Lara.

Which I find somewhat ironic, to be honest. Of course, my perspective isn't the absolute truth and maybe my case is the exception. Not trying to offend her fans or criticize her, in case someone misunderstands my post, just that I've never found a lot of talk about Lara herself in all my years since I got into this medium in a more dedicated way.

You've got a point there. Lara's iconic, of course, but as you said, she's hasn't being very relevant lately, even after the release of 2013-2018 Tomb Raider trilogy reboot. Those games are awesome and the idea of a inexperienced and less-sexist Lara Croft is cool, but it somehow took some of her character mojo.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Ryu had a similar issue where people somehow assumed Fighting Games couldn't get character for some reason.

I think it was the idea that fighting game characters would be directly translated without any sort of imagination, which is pretty silly in retrospect.

EDIT: According to Dinoman96 's citation, it sounds like the idea indirectly came from Sakurai himself, which would of course make it stronger.

I don't want Lara in because her in likely de-confirms Sora(spare me the owned by Disney argument) after he gets in I am all welcoming to Lara.

I mean even if we were to say that a SquareEnix character disconfirms Sora then he and Lara both would already be disconfirmed by Sephiroth already.

Either way they aren't competing.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I was moreso referring to Prime 3 and Trilogy.

That's fair enough. I think then Metroid was at a point where its success was very much dependent on momentum and the combination of Other M, the lack of core games on handhelds after Zero Mission, and the struggles of Nintendo in general during the Wii U period hampered a lot of potential growth it could have had. Its a bit like how Star Fox could have really gotten a shot in the arm after the general success of Adventures and Assault if it had a quality Wii release that could appeal to the install base instead of going for the ultimately divisive Command, which hampered the series' problems even further.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

That's fair enough. I think then Metroid was at a point where its success was very much dependent on momentum and the combination of Other M, the lack of core games on handhelds after Zero Mission, and the struggles of Nintendo in general during the Wii U period hampered a lot of potential growth it could have had. Its a bit like how Star Fox could have really gotten a shot in the arm after the general success of Adventures and Assault if it had a quality Wii release that could appeal to the install base instead of going for the ultimately divisive Command, which hampered the series' problems even further.

when you realize Star Fox's gimmick showcase issue would have actually worked in its favor for the Wii because pointer controls on an on-rails shooter is actually really intuitive, and is the reason why Sin and Punishment is still remembered today

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

when you realize Star Fox's gimmick showcase issue would have actually worked in its favor for the Wii because pointer controls on an on-rails shooter is actually really intuitive, and is the reason why Sin and Punishment is still remembered today

Absolutely. A Wiimote and Nunchuck combination (maybe with Wii Motion Plus?) could have allowed the former to aim the reticule and the latter to steer the Arwing, essentially pulling off what SF0 tried to do with its two screens in much less clunky fashion.

 

[SpecterFlower]

I think both Banjo and Bayonetta are in a special category in that they're both third party owned franchises with games that were published worldwide by Nintendo, essentially making them "honorary Nintendo characters".

Fun fact: The only other third party series repped in Smash that falls under this would be...Final Fantasy, thanks to Crystal Chronicles back on the GCN. But unlike BK/BT and Bayo 2 it's nowhere to be found in Ultimate.

DQ11S was published by Nintendo on the Switch as well but I understand what you mean, Bayonetta will probably be A Nintendo exclusive for the foreseeable future.

 

[SKX31]

Something that's worth noting is that its harder for any contemporary figure in gaming to be as big as a Mario or Pac-Man not only because they were so early in the media's history but also because gaming is such much bigger now and the industry is far less monopolized by a few ridiculously big franchise figures. There was once upon a time where playing games in North America was often referred to as "Playing Nintendo" as big as Mario is now, his control of the percentage of video game sales was even bigger once upon a time.

Also, dare I say it, the rest of the world and how video game playerbases have formed in other countries. It's extremely complicated because of a multitude of factors: like socio-economic, such as how much leisure money your average person has and how that's changed over the decades, or access to certain platforms / games.

Russia is a really good example of what I'm thinking off: Nintendo has recently established a foothold there, but it's practically overshadowed by the PC games and the PlayStation family (70 % of the console games sold in Russia are PlayStation games). I'm using this survey from a Russian marketing agency as my primary source. They do talk about Nintendo's position in the country (in kinda confusing terms). I should emphasize that they're a marketing / consult agency (like Niko Partners, the agency ZhugeEx works at), which is really evident in the survey's language use.

The main reason why PC games are in a stupidly strong position there? Russians generally have had less leisure money, and thus gamers there generally turned to free / low cost methods of getting games such as piracy. Counter-Strike and Dota became big games there partly because they were easy to share / pirate, and later on World of Tanks became a massive hit there because it was free to play (IIRC). As far as PlayStation goes, they established themselves in the country earlier than Nintendo and have games like FIFA helping things out for them. Nintendo... doesn't really have that, they only recently got a foothold in Russia with the Switch. Russia's also not a country where internet cafés thrive IIRC, unlike Japan, South Korea and other Asian countries.

I can't in good faith say that "Other Countries" have been a big reason why a Smash character's gotten in. "Other Countries" currently make up ca. 10 % of the Nintendo playerbase according to Nintendo's own data, after all. Except for maybe Terry, but Terry's very much a known figure in Japan too and Nintendo have started to count LatAm (one of the KoF strongholds) as part of the major Americas region together with NA, so nah. But I can't entirely dismiss the notion that potential and ongoing expansion is alluring to Nintendo either. It's a primary reasons why I'm following how the Switch fares elsewhere - particularily China* - but also other countries who have not been traditional Nintendo strongholds.

*Nintendo has tried to gain an (semi-)official foothold in China since the early 2000s, with the iQue series of consoles. As much as Nintendo's tried to avoid political messaging in their games, the company has not cared all that much about the geopolitical going-ons in the background: only if it's something that affects Nintendo themselves like too high tariffs (which is the main reason Nintendo exited Brazil 5ish years ago IIRC) or high barriers of entry in a country.

I think it was the idea that fighting game characters would be directly translated without any sort of imagination, which is pretty silly in retrospect.

EDIT: According to Dinoman96 's citation, it sounds like the idea indirectly came from Sakurai himself, which would of course make it stronger.

Honestly, that idea might have at least some basis in reality if not outright true - Sakurai did IIRC map the inputs to both the A and B buttons, something I imagine is meant to evoke the arcade experience of playing Street Fighter / SNK's fighters. He having hang-ups about how to translate say Heihachi or other fighting game characters could stem from those arcade days, although we do need direct confirmation from Sakurai himself that that's indeed the case.

 

[DarthEnderX]

and is the reason why Sin and Punishment is still remembered today

Sin and Punishment isn't still remembered today...

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

Sin and Punishment isn't still remembered today...

I still see it talked about quite a bit for a Wii game.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

Sin and Punishment isn't still remembered today...

Speak for yourself brother, there’s a whole bunch of bullet hell lovers that are pretty vocal about S&P.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I still see it talked about quite a bit for a Wii game.

...

It's not a Wii game.

You're showing just how obscure it is.

 

[Perkilator]

...

It's not a Wii game.

You're showing just how obscure it is.

He's probably thinking of Star Successor, the Wii sequel to the N64 game.

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

...

It's not a Wii game.

You're showing just how obscure it is.

I was referring to Sin and Punsihment Star Successor, probably should have worded that better.

 

[Ivander]

...

It's not a Wii game.

You're showing just how obscure it is.

But Sin & Punishment did have a Wii game. It's called Star Successor and I remember it for having some pretty good controls and for the section where you go full fighting game mode.

 

[cashregister9]

Sin and Punishment is absolutely remembered as a cult classic... But when it comes to being remembered in the public eye that is a different story

 

[Sophitia]

I don't recall admitting anything about being biased to Lara Croft. I genuinely thought her name was spelled Laura as Laura is the most more common spelling of that name.

Tomb Raider has sold a lot more than Metroid, but as others have mentioned that was a lot more relevant in the 90s compared to two decades later. As such I'd bet Metroid Prime 4 would sell at least as well at the last Tomb Raider game released. Lara is passed her prime while Metroid has remained beloved which is why I say most gamers think of Samus before Lara. You have a point this may be more true in the Nintendo world, but when speculating smash characters, obviously what happens in the Nintendo world is going to be more important than what happens outside of it.

Shadow of the Tomb Raider ships 4.12 million

In Square Enix's Q3 earnings call to investors, president Yosuke Matsuda said that Shadow of the Tomb Raider "got off t…

www.gamesindustry.biz

Shadow of the Tomb Raider has shipped over 4 million copies as of early 2019, which I think is more than any Metroid game.

 

[Garteam]

Lara Croft is definitely incredibly iconic and is still popular today, but I think it's not too much of an exaggeration to say she's past her current peak in popularity.

In the late '90s, Lara was in an elite sect of video game characters like Mario, Sonic, and Pac-Man. She had completely transcended the medium to become a general pop culture phenomenon that everyone recognized. She was the type of character that someone's aunt who has never touched a video game system in her life would know. In an early episode of King of the Hill, a prime-time comedy on one of the United States' most popular networks, Peggy not knowing who she was a punchline to show just how out of date her understanding of youth culture to a lowest-common-denominator audience.

However, much like N Sync and Mike Myers, Lara Croft and Tomb Raider ran into trouble throughout the early 2000s that quickly dimmed what was once a bright star. General franchise fatigue, combined with the erosion of goodwill amongst the hardcore fanbase due to the mediocre Chronicles and outright bad Angel of Darkness, saw a rapid decline in sales and a decrease in brand recognition.

Obviously, the franchise has rebounded with the Legend and Reboot trilogies. Likewise, people still care about Lara Croft. Otherwise, people wouldn't have thrown a massive fit when the Reboot trilogy tried to recharacterize her. However, she's closer to a Mega Man or Snake than a Mario nowadays; someone that most people who play video games know and who has transcended the medium to an extent but has failed to become hyper-recognizable to a general audience.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

It’s worth noting that Sin & Punishment: Star Successor actually outperformed expectations. Which means there probably was a point in time where they were in talks to make another game with Treasure. Problem therein lies with the fact that Treasure is made up of about 16 employees total. And the highest they’ve ever gotten was 20-30.

That’s tiny. That’s basically an indie studio making games and now, with how expensive HD game development can be, it’s not surprise there hasn’t been a sequel.

But yes, even though the games are both pretty niche they are incredibly influential and are often talked about in bullet hell circles. They’re up there being considered some of the best bullet hells to ever have been released. So yes, incredibly niche but incredibly influential for the genre which is incredibly niche in itself.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Lara Croft is definitely incredibly iconic and is still popular today, but I think it's not too much of an exaggeration to say she's past her current peak in popularity.

In the late '90s, Lara was in an elite sect of video game characters like Mario, Sonic, and Pac-Man. She had completely transcended the medium to become a general pop culture phenomenon that everyone recognized. She was the type of character that someone's aunt who has never touched a video game system in her life would know. In an early episode of King of the Hill, a prime-time comedy on one of the United States' most popular networks, Peggy not knowing who she was a punchline to show just how out of date her understanding of youth culture to a lowest-common-denominator audience.

However, much like N Sync and Mike Myers, Lara Croft and Tomb Raider ran into trouble throughout the early 2000s that quickly dimmed what was once a bright star. General franchise fatigue, combined with the erosion of goodwill amongst the hardcore fanbase due to the mediocre Chronicles and outright bad Angel of Darkness, saw a rapid decline in sales and a decrease in brand recognition.

Obviously, the franchise has rebounded with the Legend and Reboot trilogies. Likewise, people still care about Lara Croft. Otherwise, people wouldn't have thrown a massive fit when the Reboot trilogy tried to recharacterize her. However, she's closer to a Mega Man or Snake than a Mario nowadays; someone that most people who play video games know and who has transcended the medium to an extent but has failed to become hyper-recognizable to a general audience.

This really sums up her situation well. If Tomb Raider had a stronger presence on Nintendo consoles circa the N64 or Gamecube eras, I suspect she'd be in the Mega Man/Castlevania range of being a requested character among the community.

 

[Sophitia]

I'm pretty sure most of the Pac hate back in Smash 4 was just people being terrified at the thought of THIS thing getting in

Ghostly Adventures was a thing that existed during the 2013-2014 period of Smash 4 speculation, so naturally people thought that this was what we were gonna get and thus tried rationalizing Pac-Man not getting in because of it.

And to be fair, Sakurai has outright said he would have refused to put Pac-Man in if they insisted on that design.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

And to be fair, Sakurai has outright said he would have refused to put Pac-Man in if they insisted on that design.

I thought Sakurai said he wanted to put 2D Pac-Man in Brawl, but couldn't think of a moveset for him and therefore refused the 2D design.