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Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

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Phoenix Douchebag

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I love EarthBound, but it's hard for me to take any suggested character from the franchise seriously.

Compared to other franchises, EarthBound is EXTREMELY low on the totem poll. It hasn't been relevant in a very long time. and that's probably the biggest obstacle for it. None of the characters have reached a high level of demand like Ridley or K. Rool either, so it's not like they provide Sakurai with many reasons to overlook the lack of relevancy.

Until it gets a new game or everyone unites behind Ninten or Porky, I don't think we'll get another EarthBound rep. It's a lower priority compared to a majority of the other franchises in Smash.
If im being honest, it's a goddamn miracle that Mother has this much content in Smash. It's a finished trilogy of games that only of them was localized in its "prime", and even then it always sold poorly worldwide (and wasn't that big in its home country either)

And yet, it has 2 characters, 4 stages across the trilogy (Earthbound has 2 stages while Wario Land has none) 2 Assist Trophies, a Boss in Brawl and Multiple Trophies and Spirits. The only place where it feels kinda lacking is in the music area (and even then i would still argue it's still better than Sonic and Final Fantasy, even after Sephiroth's release) not because we lack music, but we lack BATTLE music, such as Porky Means Business.

Compare this to say, Rhythm Heaven, a franchise that has been consistently localized after the DS, which is among the 30 best selling DS games, (which i know doesn't sound great but this is the DS we are talking about and Mario and Pokémon were busy on that console so the fact that it is there is shocking to me) has been getting games even after Mother ended, and it's not like it has a silent following, i could argue this following is also really vocal and strong if all those fan remixes and custom parodies are to be believed.

and despite all that, it has gotten just ONE Smash Run enemy, a few spirits and songs, and mayyyyyyyyybe was considered for Smash 4. Hell i could argue even Golden Sun made more sense to be added in Smash Brawl as playable over Earthbound in 64. Golden Sun managed to become a Smash hit in the GBA (it's the 21st best selling GBA, and if you remove all the ports like Super Mario World on the list it ranks much higher) with a successful followup not long after, and it didn't need any Smash representation to do so, and Isaac's Assist and 2 songs are all it has to show for that success (although Ultimate at least gave most of the GS cast Spirits)

A lot of people (myself included, and i feel no guilt or remorse in saying this) love to complain about how FE robs many Nintendo franchises of content, but i could argue Mother is just as guilty of this, maybe even more so seeing how at least Fire Emblem grew larger as time went on
(even though it took almost a decade to do so, just look at the list of best selling GBA, DS Wii, and GC and you will say that Fire Emblem is almost nowhere on those lists, and if it is it's pretty damn low, that was until Awakening) while Mother...........didn't. I mean Smash 3DS had Magicant as a brand new stage, and Earthbound Begginings wasn't even released on the EShop worldwide yet!
 

N3ON

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I wonder if that May 2019 list will turn out to be mostly accurate in the long run. Even with Min Min as an addition, most of the list is not terribly far off as a general idea of who Nintendo would consider for Smash.
I imagine the list will get at least one more right and at least one more wrong.

Also, I spent quite a bit of time entertaining the idea that Amaterasu could actually have been picked for this pass. A dangerous hope, especially since she's probably the only character here I'd be emotionally invested in, but if Sephiroth can skip the queue of Square-Enix candidates due to sheer coolness...
Did he skip the queue, though? Sephiroth's as big a character as any other they had left.
 

LiveStudioAudience

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Western characters outside of Steve do to some degree do feel like ones of convenient opportunity for Nintendo. Numerous first party ones (Diddy, Dark Samus, K Rool, etc) were relatively easy given the ownership, and in hindsight Banjo likely came along because of the Minecraft negotiations. Outside that though it may be a case where the work involved in getting Western fighters is outweighed by the ease and appeal of working with various Japanese companies and the vast potential characters still there.

As far as Sephiroth, realistically his biggest competition was Sora, and once/if that wasn't in the way, he probably had an easy path.
 
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ROBnWatch

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If im being honest, it's a goddamn miracle that Mother has this much content in Smash. It's a finished trilogy of games that only of them was localized in its "prime", and even then it always sold poorly worldwide (and wasn't that big in its home country either)

And yet, it has 2 characters, 4 stages across the trilogy (Earthbound has 2 stages while Wario Land has none) 2 Assist Trophies, a Boss in Brawl and Multiple Trophies and Spirits. The only place where it feels kinda lacking is in the music area (and even then i would still argue it's still better than Sonic and Final Fantasy, even after Sephiroth's release) not because we lack music, but we lack BATTLE music, such as Porky Means Business.
While true, I think some of this is in large part due to Ultimate’s nature of “Everything returns/Everyone is Here!”. If this weren’t the case, EarthBound would probably have 2 stages at best, along with maybe the same 2 characters we have now. Ness for sure, but I don’t know if Lucas would return. Though he was apparently popular enough to be brought back as Smash 4 DLC so who knows. And I’m sure if that were the case, we’d probably have a few less Spirits and possibly less music too. Which, as you pointed out, would be terrible because we already have only one battle track from the series. Though by no means am I saying the current tracks are anything less than amazing.

Regardless, that’s not the situation we’re in. Ultimate has content in spades, and EarthBound certainly has a good deal of it. Then again, Fire Emblem did too. You can argue the only thing really lacking for FE in base game was stages, that didn’t stop Byleth from getting in. But FE is also (nowadays) a much bigger series than EarthBound.
 

ProfPeanut

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I imagine the list will get at least one more right and at least one more wrong.
I'd probably consider it debunked if 2 out of the 3 remaining DLCs aren't on it, but then again, we don't have any other information to confirm if it's even real or just absurdly lucky. Considering how many leaks wishlists back then would have had Terry Bogard on them too!

Did he skip the queue, though? Sephiroth's as big a character as any other they had left.
Sephiroth is probably the most iconic Square-Enix character outside of Cloud. Dude didn't "skip the queue", he was literally front in line lol
Speaking as someone who was dead-set on the idea that we'd never see a double-dip - that's to say, a complete newcomer from a third-party franchise that already has a guest character - Sephiroth beat out a lot of Square Enix candidates to the punch. Sora, Chrono, Lara Croft, other Final Fantasy characters, even 2B - these are all characters that I believed would have been likelier than Sephiroth because it'd allow Smash to more-widely represent different video game franchises.

Of course, none of them are as cool as Sephiroth, nor have his enduring popularity, but I never thought that that would have been enough to to put him in the front. And that's not even considering the costs it would've taken to get him!
 
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Cutie Gwen

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While true, I think some of this is in large part due to Ultimate’s nature of “Everything returns/Everyone is Here!”. If this weren’t the case, EarthBound would probably have 2 stages at best, along with maybe the same 2 characters we have now. Ness for sure, but I don’t know if Lucas would return. Though he was apparently popular enough to be brought back as Smash 4 DLC so who knows. And I’m sure if that were the case, we’d probably have a few less Spirits and possibly less music too. Which, as you pointed out, would be terrible because we already have only one battle track from the series. Though by no means am I saying the current tracks are anything less than amazing.

Regardless, that’s not the situation we’re in. Ultimate has content in spades, and EarthBound certainly has a good deal of it. Then again, Fire Emblem did too. You can argue the only thing really lacking for FE in base game was stages, that didn’t stop Byleth from getting in. But FE is also (nowadays) a much bigger series than EarthBound.
Ultimate brought back Fourside, which had only been in Melee prior. There wasn't really any reason to bring it back over other stages, especially as Onett would suffice for Ness. Not complaining mind you, Fourside's got a lovely aesthetic
 

N3ON

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I'd probably consider it debunked if 2 out of the 3 remaining DLCs aren't on it, but then again, we don't have any other information to confirm if it's even real or just absurdly lucky. Considering how many leaks wishlists back then would have had Terry Bogard on them too!
This is the one with like 40 characters on it, right? And it's already gotten something wrong. There's no real reason to believe it's not just luck. People underestimate how many lists people have created in regards to Smash characters. Some are bound to line up to some extent, especially when you're afforded 40 characters.

Also consider the number of people who would actually be privy to a list like that. Has a list that early in the selection process ever leaked before (it hasn't)? Just think about the logistics.

Speaking as someone who was dead-set on the idea that we'd never see a double-dip - that's to say, a complete newcomer from a third-party franchise that already has a guest character - Sephiroth beat out a lot of Square Enix candidates to the punch. Sora, Chrono, Lara Croft, other Final Fantasy characters, even 2B - these are all characters that I believed would have been likelier than Sephiroth because it'd allow Smash to more-widely represent different video game franchises.

Of course, none of them are as cool as Sephiroth, nor have his enduring popularity, but I never thought that that would have been enough to to put him in the front. And that's not even considering the costs it would've taken to get him!
I think beating them to the punch is a more apt descriptor than "skipping them". He may not have been anticipated, but he was certainly no less warranted than those other characters you mentioned. He's got to be within Square's top five most prevalent characters.
 

ROBnWatch

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Ultimate brought back Fourside, which had only been in Melee prior. There wasn't really any reason to bring it back over other stages, especially as Onett would suffice for Ness. Not complaining mind you, Fourside's got a lovely aesthetic
Right. If Ultimate weren’t Ultimate, depending on if both Ness and Lucas returned, we would likely only have Onett + one other stage for EarthBound. Obviously it would be New Pork City if we got both Ness and Lucas, but if only Ness, we’d likely only have Onett and that...might be it for EarthBound stages. That’s what it was for Smash 4. If Ultimate weren’t Ultimate, Fourside probably doesn’t return at all, and the series’ overall representation is probably closer to that of Smash 4.
 
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Wunderwaft

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I see that KOS-MOS has been mentioned a sufficient number of times to summon me and my pessimism realism over her chances. :teeth:

I feel like the people who make the arguments for KOS-MOS don't understand that it's highlighting exactly why she's unlikely.

It's because the crowning achievement was a single game that sold over a million copies twenty years ago. It's because her appearances for the last, idk, fifteen years have been largely relegated to cameos at Monolith's behest or within Namco crossovers (again typically at Monolith's behest). It's because when looking for parallels, the closest comparison (being, I guess, Terry) really isn't all that close. Terry's games aren't blockbusters, but they've happened highly consistently for the better part of thirty years, and he's the face of the company.

It's because these are the best points in her favour. These would be fine points for a first-party character. Though actually idk. Nintendo has its own RPG series from the same era with multiple million unit selling iterations and an actual highly requested lead and that's not amounted to inclusion either. The point being, for a third-party character, the bar is that much higher, and KOS-MOS is that much more outclassed by options even from her own company, let alone all the available options. It leaves her in an unremarkable midst, among a litany of possible but not likely third-party candidates.

I would agree that if she manages to get in, it's because someone had a soft spot for her... but that's not reason to expect her. It's not Monolith making the decisions; those calling the shots are as likely to have an affinity for KOS-MOS as literally any other character.

And ultimately if you have to rely on "Nintendo is unpredictable", deep down you know it's not a very compelling argument.
True, those are fair arguments against her. Most of the time I defend KOS-MOS it's in the sense of "This character isn't as far-fetched as you might think" instead of claiming she's likely. I don't think we're getting a Namco fighter so by proxy I don't think KOS-MOS is happening as well. I guess part of why I keep defending characters like KOS-MOS is because I want everyone to have a wider net and be more open to possibilities that didn't cross our heads before.

Slightly related but what do you think of KOS-MOS as a potential newcomer? Ignoring everything related to likelihood and whatnot, just pretend she overcame all her obstacles and got chosen as part of the pass. I've seen you post about KOS-MOS every now and then when she comes up so I'm curious what you think about her.
 

ProfPeanut

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This is the one with like 40 characters on it, right? And it's already gotten something wrong. There's no real reason to believe it's not just luck. People underestimate how many lists people have created in regards to Smash characters. Some are bound to line up to some extent, especially when you're afforded 40 characters.

Also consider the number of people who would actually be privy to a list like that. Has a list that early in the selection process ever leaked before (it hasn't)? Just think about the logistics.
(Unrelated, but using logistic to justify against something when no one thought about it at all during Grinch leak season...I'm just venting, that's not an argument.)

I guess 40 is wide enough, it's just that if you gave me all the confirmed DLCs so far, the only ones I'd say were easily guessable were Banjo, Byleth and Steve. The list has both wishlist mainstays and uncommon choices that few on the internet would appreciate - numerous protagonists that not many would call likely Smash candidates, but otherwise a mostly Japan-centric list with only a few feasible Western reps, when your average fake leak would lean towards more popular "niche" picks or Western bias.

I don't want to say it's some new theory or "rule", because that'd just make people who believe in it horribly disappointed if/when it turns out to be wrong. But whether or not it's real, it hasn't exactly been, well, inaccurate.
 
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N3ON

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True, those are fair arguments against her. Most of the time I defend KOS-MOS it's in the sense of "This character isn't as far-fetched as you might think" instead of claiming she's likely. I don't think we're getting a Namco fighter so by proxy I don't think KOS-MOS is happening as well. I guess part of why I keep defending characters like KOS-MOS is because I want everyone to have a wider net and be more open to possibilities that didn't cross our heads before.
Yeah there doesn't really seem to be a lot of middle-ground with KOS-MOS. My stance is evident, but it seems like people think she's either overrated or underrated. And I get where you're coming from, but I wouldn't exactly call KOS-MOS a character that hasn't crossed our minds before.

The only other character that comes to mind who really isn't within the top tier of candidates for their company, but still gets discussed basically as if they were (now that Geno is gone) is Phoenix Wright. At least he has some fanbase popularity. KOS-MOS' is lacking.

Slightly related but what do you think of KOS-MOS as a potential newcomer? Ignoring everything related to likelihood and whatnot, just pretend she overcame all her obstacles and got chosen as part of the pass. I've seen you post about KOS-MOS every now and then when she comes up so I'm curious what you think about her.
I haven't played Xenosaga, but I think she'd be really cool. I like her design and I could see dedicating some time to her if the playstyle clicked. Other than maybe Klonoa, she'd be my Namco character of choice, and was on my FP2 mockup.

I'd be happy to see her, I just think her chances get way overrated, bolstered by shoddy reasoning.
 

Noler_Mass

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Lara Croft?
There’s certainly an argument to be made for her or Sora. But that’s about it.

Even as a Final Fantasy Fanboy, I’m aware there’s not a single character in the whole series even close to as iconic as Sephiroth (or Cloud) unless we’re talking about generic classes or races, such as Black Mage or Moogles (Kupo!)
 
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Arcadenik

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I wonder if that May 2019 list will turn out to be mostly accurate in the long run. Even with Min Min as an addition, most of the list is not terribly far off as a general idea of who Nintendo would consider for Smash.

Also, I spent quite a bit of time entertaining the idea that Amaterasu could actually have been picked for this pass. A dangerous hope, especially since she's probably the only character here I'd be emotionally invested in, but if Sephiroth can skip the queue of Square-Enix candidates due to sheer coolness...
Crossing fingers for Captain Toad

He is on the list too.
 

cothero

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Lara Croft?
Lara is one of the biggest characters missing from smash, no doubt. And i don't really thing she's coming after Sephiroth (and i don't even think she was even considered to begin with). When i thing of iconic video game characters, i always think of this pic:

ku-xlarge.jpg


As you can see, she's the only one missing from this pic and the fact that she's a female could bring more gender diversity in Fighters Pass (there's only MinMin at this point). I know there's other strong female contenders like Tracer, Chun-Li or KOS-MOS, but Nintendo just can't ignore how important Lara Croft is and what she represents to video game history.
 
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Dinoman96

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Lara's just kind of one of those characters who iconicness is mostly exclusive to the west. Same thing with series like Halo or DOOM. The reverse of Dragon Quest, basically.

Per admitted by Sakurai himself, Final Fantasy is a rare example of a Japanese series that's revered around the entire world.


Final Fantasy is one of the few uniquely Japanese game series revered by players around the world. I think fans across the globe have hoped a character from one of those series would appear in Smash, so it was only a matter of time. At the same time, there are only so many big-name titles we can work with at this point—mainly because we’ve covered most of those bases. Aside from the major globally-recognized franchises already featured in Smash, there really aren’t that many left.
So yes, I do think Sephiroth is the overall bigger get, because he's popular and well known in both western and eastern territories.
 

Louie G.

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A lot of people (myself included, and i feel no guilt or remorse in saying this) love to complain about how FE robs many Nintendo franchises of content, but i could argue Mother is just as guilty of this
As someone who has actively supported one of the series you mentioned in your post (Rhythm Heaven) I don't think Mother, or any other series in particular, has robbed it of an opportunity. Rhythm Heaven's major chance was in Smash 4, a game that Lucas even got cut from for base roster. Where it faltered was likely through 3DS limitations of some sort. But I know I'm taking this too literally and I kinda get your point, that's just a tangent.

Mother has a good deal of content but not an egregious amount because IMO, the progression of Mother content has felt natural. Ness has been here since Smash 64. Mother had two stages like nearly every other series in Melee, New Pork City was added in Brawl for the newest game in the series / to correspond with Lucas and like many other returning series it got an additional stage for Smash 4 in the form of Magicant. All of those stages return to Ultimate because of course they do, Ultimate made a point to bring nearly everything back. Of course porting over many of these stages is also a lesser strain on development than building brand new ones as well.

Then I guess you have stuff like Franklin Badge and Mr Saturn which are staples at this point and I don't think anyone has a legitimate issue with those. Mother has been treated well in the music department, especially in Brawl / Smash 4, but still sits at a pretty normal number of tracks as they usually don't port in unedited versions of the songs from the origin games.

Ness was in 64, Lucas was added in Brawl, Lucas got cut in Smash 4 and returned via DLC and then returned again in Ultimate because everyone is here. Unlike the aforementioned Fire Emblem that piled on 3 new characters and one revamped Melee returnee in a single game (regardless of how you feel about FE, I think most people can agree this was a bit much), Mother has understandably grown a lot slower and still sits at 2 / 78+ characters.

I think people get too fixated on the correlation between series size and amount of content. The only area where Mother has a really jarring amount is in those stages, which is easily explained and not that much of a problem because... Mother just has very fun locales to represent. As long as they're bringing something fresh I don't see the issue personally, and I've never seen this as an unreasonable amount of content. For a series that has been a part of Smash since 64 I think it just makes sense for Mother to have built up a good amount of content to show off in a game that celebrates the series' history in full.

As a big Mother fan though - Mother 3 is my favorite game of all time - I do recognize and appreciate how lucky I am to have my favorite game represented as nicely as it is, given its complicated situation and the series' mediocre sales numbers. They really didn't need to but Mother has been lucky since the very beginning. To me though, celebrating that kind of thing is what Smash is all about, showing people what they're missing from some really special video games. Mother is just a very significant part of the Smash Bros series and its history at this point and I think what it has is justified.
 
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LiveStudioAudience

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Sephiroth is essentially the non Nintendo equivalent to Pikachu or the Pokemon Red/Blue starters; a key and memorable figure in making an entire video genre explode in the West to making it truly global phenomenon. That he wasn't the first iconic FF or Square Enix villain (and in a series that includes the likes of Kefka certainly not the best in my estimation) is secondary to the fact that he was a public face of a game that changed everything for the industry.
 
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Opossum

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It's kinda weird to say Sephiroth is bigger than Lara as a character because he's known in the east and the west because it makes it seem like both of those markets are equal when the gaming sphere in the west is far larger. And in the west, I'd say Lara handily beats Sephiroth.

Being less known in the east is a far smaller detriment than not being known in the west when it comes to worldwide notoriety just due to market size.
 

Froggy

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It's kinda weird to say Sephiroth is bigger than Lara as a character because he's known in the east and the west because it makes it seem like both of those markets are equal when the gaming sphere in the west is far larger. And in the west, I'd say Lara handily beats Sephiroth.

Being less known in the east is a far smaller detriment than not being known in the west when it comes to worldwide notoriety just due to market size.
I think you're conflating "well known" with popular. I'm pretty sure more(especially non-gamers) people know who Laura Craft is vs Sephiroth, but Sephiroth is still more popular. In that I'm pretty final fantasy 7 remake will sell better than any Tomb Raider game that would be released today.

While I appreciate her impact to gaming, I just don't find Laura to be that exciting(Tracer is the cooler equivalent), and she'd be taking Sora's spot in Fighters Pass 3, so I'd rather she not be included in the game, even though I understand it wouldn't be a bad choice.
 
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Dinoman96

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Being less known in the east is a far smaller detriment than not being known in the west when it comes to worldwide notoriety just due to market size.
You have to realize that Smash is made in Japan and mostly aimed at Japanese audiences, though. It's part of the reason there aren't very many western IPs with playable characters in Smash, outside of Minecraft (the most successful western game in Japan) and Banjo-Kazooie (a former Nintendo IP that was a cult hit there in the N64 era).
 

Michael the Spikester

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Sora as iconic as Sephiroth and Lara Croft?

Lol as if. He's popular sure but not iconic like those two. Sora I say is more of Dante-popular.
 

SNEKeater

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Not an expert about the character but I feel this is indeed an interesting case. I feel Lara Croft might be in a somewhat similar situation to Crash 10 years ago, where the lack of new games made people to not talk a lot about Crash. Of course, the latest Tomb Raider game was released in 2018, but I always had the feeling the reboot series never gained as much attention and talk as the classic games did.

Also, as Froggy has said, I also feel Lara Croft is more a case of a character being iconic rather than popular. 2 different things. Not that she's not popular, but in all the 10? years since I started keeping in touch with gaming news everyday, I honestly have never got the impression at all of she being a more popular character than names like Crash Bandicoot, Snake, some RE protagonists such as Leon, Chris or Jill, Dante, Sora, Spyro or Kratos, to name a few characters strongly associated with Playstation that are less recognizable in mainstream circles than Lara.

Which I find somewhat ironic, to be honest. Of course, my perspective isn't the absolute truth and maybe my case is the exception. Not trying to offend her fans or criticize her, in case someone misunderstands my post, just that I've never found a lot of talk about Lara herself in all my years since I got into this medium in a more dedicated way.
 

Megadoomer

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I'm hardly a Kingdom Hearts guy, but the association with Disney alone puts Sora up there. Given how much the release of KH3 was a big event for a lot of people and just how much of a merchandising empire and beyond KH is? He's an iconic figure to a lot of young people worldwide.
He's owned by Disney, though. I'm not sure if he qualifies as a Square-Enix character like Sephiroth, Lara Croft, Geno, Crono, Neku, or 2B do.
 
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Michael the Spikester

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Dude, just...no.

Like, I don't care about KH, but even I know Sora is an incredibly iconic character.
Perhaps I was sleeping under a rock or something but why is it then I never knew who Sora even was until like the 2010s whereas I've known those other two longer even before I was a teen? Hell I even knew who Dante was before Sora.
 
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LiveStudioAudience

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Perhaps I was sleeping under a rock or something but why is it then I never knew who Sora even was until like the 2010s whereas I've known those other two longer even before I was a teen? Hell I even knew who Dante was before Sora.
Without trying to make any assumptions about your gaming history, I think its a combination of both KH becoming more popular over time and that depending on what genres one spends time in, its easy to not be familiar with those that have become significant until the saturation point hits.

Just speaking for myself there are incredibly well known characters associated with various PC and AAA gaming franchises that I myself am pretty clueless about. Overwatch is still big and if you asked me to name a character besides Tracer, I'd be at a loss. True mega-fame happens when characters in games or genres you don't play become known to you, and in that sense I'd say that's what Sora has done.
 

Hinata

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Perhaps I was sleeping under a rock or something but why is it then I never knew who Sora even was until like the 2010s whereas I've known those other two longer even before I was a teen? Hell I even knew who Dante was before Sora.
"I didn't hear of Sora before I heard of all these other characters so clearly that means Sora's not nearly as iconic as them because my personal experiences are universal and what shape the world!"
 

Michael the Spikester

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There's also difference between popularity and iconic also. Lara Croft being THE female video game protagonist and Sephiroth one of gaming's most iconic villains. Hell, Devil May Cry revolutionized hack-n-slash games as Halo did for FPS.

What does Sora have aside from being related to Disney?
 
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