Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[kaithehedgefox]

View attachment 298000

Edit: Yuri was so popular, he was taken off of polls just so that other characters could win.

I thought Yuri was a woman at first.

 

[Faso115]

I decided to check the Backseat videos about smash with math and hey, Sephiroth perfectly fit their calculations.

So we have in their calculations: 2 Platformers and 1 RPG. 2 returning publishers and a new one. One characters from the 80s, 1 from the 90s and one is a mix of 80s and 2000s, all male or both potentially and all eastern properties.

Man math sucks

 

[PSIGuy]

If any Pass would have multiple western characters, it'd be this one. Steve took 5 years - I can only imagine much of that time being dedicated to organizing translators and meetings at times that work for everyone. And surely Microsoft aren't the only company with a working relationship who want a playable character in Smash.

 

[dream1ng]

I decided to check the Backseat videos about smash with math and hey, Sephiroth perfectly fit their calculations.

So we have in their calculations: 2 Platformers and 1 RPG. 2 returning publishers and a new one. One characters from the 80s, 1 from the 90s and one is a mix of 80s and 2000s, all male or both potentially and all eastern properties.

Man math sucks

Are these the people that counted Min Min as a nongendered shooting-game character to make their math work?

If any Pass would have multiple western characters, it'd be this one. Steve took 5 years - I can only imagine much of that time being dedicated to organizing translators and meetings at times that work for everyone. And surely Microsoft aren't the only company with a working relationship who want a playable character in Smash.

Steve did not take five years. Five years is when the discussions first began. That doesn't mean a plan was made, it doesn't mean a contract was sign, it means that's when Party A first broached Smash to Party B.

Ubisoft clearly approached Nintendo about getting Rayman in some seven-ish years ago. If that character eventually gets in, people can say those talks began the better part of a decade ago and it'd be true. Sonic and Snake were first broached for Melee, but didn't get in til Brawl. That was over five years from the talks to the inclusion.

That's what we're dealing with here. Not constant ongoing development.

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

To be real, no, not really. Some people have put a lot of stock into him not being a spirit, but at the end of the day it's still getting another, third Mother character. Let alone as DLC.

The silver lining, which people probably won't see as such because it's at the point where it's taken for granted, is, nevertheless, that the Mother series has quite a bit of representation as it is for a series of its stature.

Porky's biggest merit within the speculation scene is that his spirit is missing, but as time went on we've come to realize that he's probably meant to be in the Absolutely Safe Capsule as a gag and that spirits don't matter. Very unfortunate, but Mother is pretty well-represented outside of some weird music omissions, so it isn't so bad.

I wasn't the only one that thought the Banjo trailer was leading to Porky right?

Well, thats a sobering reality. Still, I am happy the series has half as much content as it does. Still livid at the complete exclusion of Giygas though, hes begging to be a boss or stage hazard, at least give him an assist. I haven’t played Mother 3 so I don’t know the significance of the absolutely safe capsule to Porky, I hope its vital to him as a character if its the only reference to him as the semi icon he is.
Edit: It seems like the only hope for Porky is if Mother gets something major. Like a remastered trilogy, god I hope.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Well, thats a sobering reality. Still, I am happy the series has half as much content as it does. Still livid at the complete exclusion of Giygas though, hes begging to be a boss or stage hazard, at least give him an assist. I haven’t played Mother 3 so I don’t know the significance of the absolutely safe capsule to Porky, I hope its vital to him as a character if its the only reference to him as the semi icon he is.

When you beat Mother 3 you're gonna be all "OOOOOOH I GET IT", that's all that needs to be said

 

[cothero]

I thought Yuri was a woman at first.

You and me booth

I thought Yuri was a woman at first.

you and me both, pal.

 

[PeridotGX]

I decided to check the Backseat videos about smash with math and hey, Sephiroth perfectly fit their calculations.

So we have in their calculations: 2 Platformers and 1 RPG. 2 returning publishers and a new one. One characters from the 80s, 1 from the 90s and one is a mix of 80s and 2000s, all male or both potentially and all eastern properties.

Man math sucks

Hayabusa
Jack Frost (Shin Megami Tensei)
Mega Man X

there we go. The future.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I see. That does bump it up by four though, not one.

Yeah, I hadn't thought of the others on my original count.

Anyway I agree it's possible we might see another but I get why Nintendo would still opt to work more with the Japanese devs (though it's only a matter of time before things skew more equally), so I'd be surprised if the total western count in the pass exceeded two.

I do think that eastern vs. western appeal is a factor, since they're going to want to make sure that it balances out. Currently Terry is our most western leaning pick, with him being big in South America, but he also has good appeal in China and Japan. Banjo & Kazooie are probably the most focused in appeal since they mostly just target Smash fans. As far as I know everyone else is more eastern or universal in appeal.

...

I don't remember where I was going with this, but it was probably something something cast a wide net, and I think there are a fair bit of western characters that can do that.

 

[Sophitia]

So, I am also curious, as to how long DLC will go after CP11. Even if we don't get anything substantial, we'd still get a few balance patches, right? I don't know if they'd just end everything as soon as CP11 comes out.

 

[Idon]

So, I am also curious, as to how long DLC will go after CP11. Even if we don't get anything substantial, we'd still get a few balance patches, right? I don't know if they'd just end everything as soon as CP11 comes out.

Echoing Smash 4's release schedule, they'll release a completely broken character like Dante, make a few patches that don't stop him from being totally busted, and then peace out for 5-7 years.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

I don't expect Fusion to get a remake until after Super Metroid gets one, as Super Metroid is more outdated by virtue of being on the SNES, which is older than the GBA.

Super Metroid has aged exceptionally well actually. As a matter of fact the graphics, atmosphere, and music are all quite a step above what could be done on the GBA.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Echoing Smash 4's release schedule, they'll release a completely broken character like Dante, make a few patches that don't stop him from being totally busted, and then peace out for 5-7 years.

It's also worth noting that we're pretty much just getting multi-hit fixes at this point. It could very well be that we will have no balancing done from now on unless one of the DLC characters are super obviously overtuned.

 

[Guynamednelson]

It's also worth noting that we're pretty much just getting multi-hit fixes at this point. It could very well be that we will have no balancing done from now on unless one of the DLC characters are super obviously overtuned.

Tournament results help the developers decide who to buff/nerf alongside online results. It's hard to see who's dominating offline tournaments for obvious reasons.

 

[DarthEnderX]

RileyXY1 is one of my favorite users on this site. They give their opinion straight to the truth, no Filler or anything.

No he doesn't. He doesn't actually believe half of the things he says. He's just saying whatever he thinks will **** on other people's enthusiasm the most.

It's a fake mask of cynicism to lowkey troll people.

I don't think he's disagreeing with people just to disagree.

That's exactly what he's doing.

If he was really saying his own opinions, there'd actually be things he agreed with. But that never happens. He only ever posts to tell people that something they want isn't going to happen.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Tournament results help the developers decide who to buff/nerf alongside online results. It's hard to see who's dominating offline tournaments for obvious reasons.

Yeah but they take online date into account as well. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they only took online data and complaints into account.

Of course, it's not a given, I just don't think the lack of offline tournaments is the reason for the lack of actual balance patches.

 

[Louie G.]

If Activision somehow gets involved in Smash, I still think Crash Bandicoot is the most obvious choice from their list of franchises for a Smash roster candidate.

I think they both have their merit, but I think people put a little too much stock in Crash. I guess it's kinda like a Banjo vs Steve sort of thing again, except Crash doesn't have the longterm fan demand that Banjo did and Overwatch isn't quite as big as Minecraft... but at its core it's pitting a modern icon of the company against a classic one.

I slightly lean toward Tracer in part just to shake things up a bit and also because of Overwatch's significant worldwide esports presence and Nintendo's own involvement with Blizzard and bringing OW to Switch - around the time that we may have seen characters discussed or planned. I believe people sleep on 'modern' all stars a lot in favor of classic mascots and icons so I still believe Tracer is worth the time of day.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Well, thats a sobering reality. Still, I am happy the series has half as much content as it does. Still livid at the complete exclusion of Giygas though, hes begging to be a boss or stage hazard, at least give him an assist. I haven’t played Mother 3 so I don’t know the significance of the absolutely safe capsule to Porky, I hope its vital to him as a character if its the only reference to him as the semi icon he is.

Either Master Core or Dharkon should have been Giygas instead...

I decided to check the Backseat videos about smash with math and hey, Sephiroth perfectly fit their calculations.

So we have in their calculations: 2 Platformers and 1 RPG. 2 returning publishers and a new one. One characters from the 80s, 1 from the 90s and one is a mix of 80s and 2000s, all male or both potentially and all eastern properties.

Hayabusa
Arthur
I dunno...Crono?

 

[Cosmic77]

I love EarthBound, but it's hard for me to take any suggested character from the franchise seriously.

Compared to other franchises, EarthBound is EXTREMELY low on the totem poll. It hasn't been relevant in a very long time. and that's probably the biggest obstacle for it. None of the characters have reached a high level of demand like Ridley or K. Rool either, so it's not like they provide Sakurai with many reasons to overlook the lack of relevancy.

Until it gets a new game or everyone unites behind Ninten or Porky, I don't think we'll get another EarthBound rep. It's a lower priority compared to a majority of the other franchises in Smash.

 

[dream1ng]

That's exactly what he's doing.

If he was really saying his own opinions, there'd actually be things he agreed with. But that never happens. He only ever posts to tell people that something they want isn't going to happen.

That's not really how agreeing and disagreeing work online.

If someone agrees with you they're much more likely to just "like" your post and move on than tell you as much. If someone disagrees, they'll quote you and reply. It's a system set up for debate, and people don't tend to debate over that which they agree.

I don't know Riley very well but posts that exist just to voice solidarity with an opinion are intrinsically rare, especially if a like feature is present.

 

[DarthEnderX]

If someone agrees with you they're much more likely to just "like" your post and move on than tell you as much.

You can check those as well. The only posts he likes are OTHER people *****ing people's hopes.

If these were actually his opinions, then his ACTUAL position is that no character is coming out, ever. There is no character he thinks Nintendo is adding. And no time when he thinks a character will be released.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

That's not really how agreeing and disagreeing work online.

If someone agrees with you they're much more likely to just "like" your post and move on than tell you as much. If someone disagrees, they'll quote you and reply. It's a system set up for debate, and people don't tend to debate over that which they agree.

I don't know Riley very well but posts that exist just to voice solidarity with an opinion are intrinsically rare, especially if a like feature is present.

I won't speak much on this subject but I will say that Riley had consistently shot down ideas, but when other users ask what they do think is likely (respectfully or not) they'll refuse to answer. Not even giving a "I don't know," which is an acceptable answer.

As far as I know, they have only said one thing is likely and it was so long ago I can't recall what it was. I just remember they backtracked later.

Riley being a downer is very common, unintentional or not. I don't think Riley is a troll exactly and I'd rather say it's a lack of reading the room.

If Riley genuinely thinks lots of things are unlikely, that's fine. I just think they may need some tact when stating those opinions.

 

[Arcane Jill]

I love EarthBound, but it's hard for me to take any suggested character from the franchise seriously.

Compared to other franchises, EarthBound is EXTREMELY low on the totem poll. It hasn't been relevant in a very long time. and that's probably the biggest obstacle for it. None of the characters have reached a high level of demand like Ridley or K. Rool either, so it's not like they provide Sakurai with many reasons to overlook the lack of relevancy.

Until it gets a new game or everyone unites behind Ninten or Porky, I don't think we'll get another EarthBound rep. It's a lower priority compared to a majority of the other franchises in Smash.

This. As much as I love Mother, it's a finished franchise with a bow on top. Between New Pork City, Onett, Fourside, and Magicant, all 3 games are repped stagewise, so items or Maybe an AT is the extent Mother will get for the forseeable future. The only way I see Mother getting another rep is if Itoi decides to make Mother 4, which I can't see happening. I still hope Mother 3 gets localized one day, but given that we already have a EX-Tier fan translation for it, I'm not hurting too badly for that either

 

[Swamp Sensei]

To guide this back towards Smash discussion...

I think people vastly overrate KOS-MOS.

Xenosaga does have some influence and history, and Monolith does love her, but I can't see Sakurai or Nintendo picking her. Especially over Elma and Rex, the Nintendo owned Xeno games that actually sold well.

 

[Arcane Jill]

To guide this back towards Smash discussion...

I think people vastly overrate KOS-MOS.

Xenosaga does have some influence and history, and Monolith does love her, but I can't see Sakurai or Nintendo picking her. Especially over Elma and Rex, the Nintendo owned Xeno games that actually sold well.

Same. I have a friend whose a huge Xenosaga and KOS-MOS fan, but I can't see her coming. Feel like people keep bringing her up because of that 1 pre-Byleth fake leak rather than seeing her as a likely addition. Feel like it would be Rex, Elma, or maybe Fei if we get another Xeno rep.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Maybe an AT is the extent Mother will get for the forseeable future

Honestly I'm surprised we didn't get another one in the form of Duster, I'm pretty sure he's the only major party member from Mother 3 who doesn't have a model in Smash which is a damn shame, especially as there's not many characters like Duster, who're physically handicapped. Closest I can think of is Ed Elric but only the manga shows his phantom pains and stuff iirc.

 

[Jerry98]

It will be like twenty years before Super Metroid is outdated enough to actually warrant a remake. That game has aged exceptionally well.

I played Super Metroid 4 months ago for the first time and can confirm: it really aged like wine! Still one of the best metroidvania games you can play!

Anyway I hope for a Fusion sequel, but before evil Chozos from the last Chozo memory in Samus Returns, I think they should do a game where the Federation actually chase Samus because she destroyed BSL Station (some of the corrupt people within the Federation Army who tried to use Metroid as bioweapons in Other M are still out there and they're probably piloting the Federation Army's actions at the time of Fusion).

 

[Speed Weed]

Would be cool if they manage to get S.S.T. (SEGA Sound Team)/Blind Spot on the remix tracks too

They're SEGA arrangements have always been excellent:

You just sent me down a rabbit hole of S.S.T. remixes.

They're all bangers. Thank you.

 

[Wunderwaft]

To guide this back towards Smash discussion...

I think people vastly overrate KOS-MOS.

Xenosaga does have some influence and history, and Monolith does love her, but I can't see Sakurai or Nintendo picking her. Especially over Elma and Rex, the Nintendo owned Xeno games that actually sold well.

Xenosaga did sell well though, don't confuse Namco's high expectations of the series and Takahashi's over-extension with his goals with the series not selling well or garnering much attention. The first Xenosaga sold over a million copies and was a huge success for a new JRPG franchise created in the sixth generation of video games. The second installment in the series doesn't have the full sales data revealed but it was reported to have been a success overseas. If we are to compare the first Xenosaga game with the Xenoblade Chronicles series then only 2 actually outsold it. The first game that released on the Wii and X didn't outsell the first Xenosaga game.

But regardless, the main articulating point for why KOS-MOS stands a chance to be chosen aren't sales, it's that the character still sees some use despite her home series being over. She still makes crossover appearances despite Namco shooting down the idea of making a remastered trilogy for the series, meaning Namco does see value in KOS-MOS as a character even if they're not planning on making another Xenosaga game.

Now as for why Nintendo would choose KOS-MOS, from a business perspective it doesn't make that much sense since there are other bigger franchises to put in. But then again if that was the metric we were going for then we wouldn't have gotten Terry in this game, and despite the revisionism that came with his inclusion SNK is not that big of a company. It's a company with a long legacy but it has long since it passed it's golden age, it would've been more lucrative business wise to go for a bigger fighting game franchise if we're going by pure sales numbers.

I probably went off track a bit but the point that I'm trying to make is that if KOS-MOS does get in then more likely than not it's because one of the executives sitting in the Nintendo table is a fan of the series. What does Joker, Terry, Banjo, and Sephiroth all have in common? Absolutely **** all, it's more possible than we would like to admit that some of the characters that got picked by Nintendo was due to executives just throwing in character names that they personally wanted to see in Smash. The only truly big negative I see against KOS-MOS is that Rex exists and he makes more sense to choose business wise instead of KOS-MOS, but hey, crazier things have happened.


Also I can't believe I wrote this entire essay when I don't even believe Namco is getting another character in this pass lol

 

[Michael the Spikester]

So, I am also curious, as to how long DLC will go after CP11. Even if we don't get anything substantial, we'd still get a few balance patches, right? I don't know if they'd just end everything as soon as CP11 comes out.

You talk like Post-Pass 2 DLC has been confirmed which it hasn't...

 

[Dinoman96]

Xenosaga would be far and away the least popular and historically significant third party guest included in Smash if KOS-MOS actually somehow got in.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Honestly, I think at this point it was really just luck we only ended up getting true western reps (Banjo and Steve) due to Nintendo's and Microsoft's close current relationship. Diddy, Dark Samus, and K. Rool don't count because although developed by western companies, they still originated from franchises made in Japan.

Otherwise, I don't think we would have gotten any tbh.

 

[osby]

You talk like Post-Pass 2 DLC has been confirmed which it hasn't...

I think they were talking about DLC as in free updates, as in stuff like balance patches and new game modes and such.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Super Metroid has aged exceptionally well actually. As a matter of fact the graphics, atmosphere, and music are all quite a step above what could be done on the GBA.

You know, I've never really given Metroid a fair crack of the whip having only played maybe two hours of the original Prime game on Gamecube.
A lot of the originals are on the NES and SNES online app right?

I think this year that'll be my Smash Bros. related 'resolution': Give Metroid a chance.

The last three years I've accidentally done this:
2018: Xenoblade - Xenoblade Chronicles X specifically. I sadly didn't gel with the gameplay for this one, but loved everything else such as world building, character designs and the story.
2019: Fire Emblem - Three Houses was the first game I beat, but I actually owned Awakening but stopped half way through. I've since gone back and played it again from the beginning and loved it. Tempted to pick up another but not sure which to go for that is a reasonable price(so no to the Tellius titles for now).
2020: Pikmin - Pikmin 3 Deluxe ended up being my game of the year and I think it instantly became a top series for me. Genuinely shocked how much I ended up adoring this short little title.

I think this year I'll try and do it on purpose for once.

Anyone else doing any vaguely tagental Smash related gaming resolutions for the year?

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I think they were talking about DLC as in free updates, as in stuff like balance patches and new game modes and such.

Should have been more clear with the post then because that's what it sounded like tbh.

 

[N3ON]

I see that KOS-MOS has been mentioned a sufficient number of times to summon me and my pessimism realism over her chances.

I feel like the people who make the arguments for KOS-MOS don't understand that it's highlighting exactly why she's unlikely.

It's because the crowning achievement was a single game that sold over a million copies twenty years ago. It's because her appearances for the last, idk, fifteen years have been largely relegated to cameos at Monolith's behest or within Namco crossovers (again typically at Monolith's behest). It's because when looking for parallels, the closest comparison (being, I guess, Terry) really isn't all that close. Terry's games aren't blockbusters, but they've happened highly consistently for the better part of thirty years, and he's the face of the company.

It's because these are the best points in her favour. These would be fine points for a first-party character. Though actually idk. Nintendo has its own RPG series from the same era with multiple million unit selling iterations and an actual highly requested lead and that's not amounted to inclusion either. The point being, for a third-party character, the bar is that much higher, and KOS-MOS is that much more outclassed by options even from her own company, let alone all the available options. It leaves her in an unremarkable midst, among a litany of possible but not likely third-party candidates.

I would agree that if she manages to get in, it's because someone had a soft spot for her... but that's not reason to expect her. It's not Monolith making the decisions; those calling the shots are as likely to have an affinity for KOS-MOS as literally any other character.

And ultimately if you have to rely on "Nintendo is unpredictable", deep down you know it's not a very compelling argument.

 

[ROBnWatch]

Alright, so I’ve started replaying Earthbound in preparation for Mother 3 (Had no clue there was a fan translation). It made me really want Porky. So I’ve come to ask since y’all aren’t as biased as me in this instance, Is there any hope for him? At least as a stand-alone.

It seems people have covered all bases on this, but ya, there’s not too much going in his favor. There is a Porky support thread, but with nothing really going on surrounding the character right now (or his series for that matter), it’s pretty much a wait and see at this point. I will say this, everyone here seems to agree the Absolutely Safe Capsule represents him and that the series as a whole has a good deal of representation. And these are logical lines of thinking. But at the same time, when has that ever stopped Sakurai and the Smash team?

Honestly, yes, his chances are slim. Which is a shame cause there’s quite a bit he could bring with him, I could create a character pass for him myself filled with things yet unrepresented from the Mother series, though I am happy with what it already has too. There are a few key things I think are missing, but it’s not up to me. So I’d say his chances aren’t 0, but certainly slim.

Spoiler: Mother 3 Absolutely Safe Capsule Spoilers Kinda

I’d also like to point out the Absolutely Safe Capsule Spirit in Smash uses it’s “empty” sprite, when Porky is not in it. But seeing as it’s a Legend-class Spirit, and that the only reason it should be one is if Porky were meant to be represented by it, it may just be an oversight on the developers’ part. Either way, I understand the gag but I’m not too big a fan of it. Could’ve been Porky’s EarthBound sprite or a sprite of him in one of his mechs. After all, if the gag was “he’s been stuck in there since Mother 3”, then how the heck did he get out to be a boss in Brawl? But I digress.

 

[Dinoman96]

Honestly, I think at this point it was really just luck we only ended up getting true western reps (Banjo and Steve) due to Nintendo's and Microsoft's close current relationship. Diddy, Dark Samus, and K. Rool don't count because although developed by western companies, they still originated from franchises made in Japan.

Otherwise, I don't think we would have gotten any tbh.

I think most western franchises just don't stand out to Nintendo because most of them aren't very popular in their home country. It's pretty telling that Minecraft was the first western franchise they were ever interested in being in Smash (which of course opened the door for Banjo as well), because it's by far and away the best selling foreign game in Japan.

I imagine that's a big reason people latch onto Crash so much, because the Naughty Dog games were actually multimillion success stories in Japan during the PS1 era. Only problem is...that popularity didn't carry over into the games afterwards.

 

[osby]

Honestly, I think at this point it was really just luck we only ended up getting true western reps (Banjo and Steve) due to Nintendo's and Microsoft's close current relationship. Diddy, Dark Samus, and K. Rool don't count because although developed by western companies, they still originated from franchises made in Japan.

Otherwise, I don't think we would have gotten any tbh.

I agree that Microsoft being close to Nintendo helped but they are not the only Western company they have a good relationship with?

I could see Ubisoft getting a character if Assassin's Creed wasn't disconfirmed, for example.

 

[ProfPeanut]

I wonder if that May 2019 list will turn out to be mostly accurate in the long run. Even with Min Min as an addition, most of the list is not terribly far off as a general idea of who Nintendo would consider for Smash.

Also, I spent quite a bit of time entertaining the idea that Amaterasu could actually have been picked for this pass. A dangerous hope, especially since she's probably the only character here I'd be emotionally invested in, but if Sephiroth can skip the queue of Square-Enix candidates due to sheer coolness...