Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[Louie G.]

Apropos of nothing, I'm gonna chime in here just to say that we need Mallo is Smash.

I saw a really great moveset for him a little while back that sold me on the idea. Always liked the guy but now doubly so.

They're putting Mallo in Smash!! pic.twitter.com/LPx2ARCcis

— Jason Lupaș (@jasonlupas) November 26, 2020

 

[SirCamp]

lol of course my random Mallo appreciation post gets buried on the last page immediately. Poor guy.

 

[BlondeLombax]

I didn't realize there was this much disparity; people should start making avatars bets over single vs. double reveals. xD

Meanwhile I'll just be over here in the most exquisite ballgown I own, handing out corn dogs to the bystanders and watching the madness take place.

 

[perfectchaos83]

I'm 5% in on a Double reveal.

I really only expect it if another batch of characters is also announced, and that's something I don't see happening given the current information at hand.

 

[SirCamp]

I saw a really great moveset for him a little while back that sold me on the idea. Always liked the guy but now doubly so.

They're putting Mallo in Smash!! pic.twitter.com/LPx2ARCcis

— Jason Lupaș (@jasonlupas) November 26, 2020

Wait hold up, this is incredible. I need this now. Oh no... lol

 

[RileyXY1]

I'm 5% in on a Double reveal.

I really only expect it if another batch of characters is also announced, and that's something I don't see happening given the current information at hand.

Either that or they intend to drop both fighters in June or early July, which is also unlikely.

 

[Louie G.]

I'm leaning toward a double reveal at the moment but I'm prepared for either. The consensus seems to be "they'd be stupid not to drag the hype out through the rest of the year" but an important factor to consider is that Nintendo is, in fact, very stupid. Especially with handling stuff like DLC.

What informs my perspective a little more though is that Sakurai suggested in his recent Famitsu column that we'd be seeing the last two fighters fairly soon. "Soon" could be anywhere from tomorrow to the end of the year I suppose, but I think we could get the next fighter by the end of the month and at least see a teaser at E3 for a fighter coming by the end of Summer like Banjo did, wrapping up nicely around September.

It also probably depends how much Nintendo actually has to show this year. If they need to spice up their E3 presentation then dual reveals would make sense. If they have several big announcements they may not want Smash to have such a significant presence. Or maybe the lack of showing would be even more justification to keep dragging out Smash hype to distract from the lack of games (like they've been doing for the past two years). Who knows.

 

[GoodGrief741]

So


How confident are y'all in a double reveal?



I think it's definitely likely, but I'm still erring on the side of EXTREME caution.

Not at all

 

[WeirdChillFever]

I’m pretty sure it’ll be a double reveal.

The ideal of a Final Smash Direct that announces and explains both character isn’t happening anymore once E3 reveals a character, so then the choice becomes one between a dual reveal at E3 with the two Sakurai Presents’ coming later, or a single reveal at E3....with the two Sakurai Presents’ coming later. The only difference would be that for a single reveal, the final character is revealed in the Sakurai Direct or in a Nintendo Direct later, but the fanfare of a Final Smash Direct with a big farewell is out of the window already.

The only exception I can see is that CP11 hinges on a game that is revealed or showcased between now and September, but I don’t see that happening.

 

[perfectchaos83]

I'm leaning toward a double reveal at the moment but I'm prepared for either. The consensus seems to be "they'd be stupid not to drag the hype out through the rest of the year" but an important factor to consider is that Nintendo is, in fact, very stupid.

It goes both ways, as there are many people saying it would be stupid of Nintendo Not to reveal them both at E3 and get them out of the way.

 

[Yiptap]

I don't think there will be a double reveal at E3. It could happen, but I don't really see it. I, personally, think that the final FP2 character will be revealed at a standalone Smash stream, akin to Byleth and/or Steve. Plus, the Smash team would probably want to hype up the final reveal instead of showing off both characters in one swoop. Remember, when there's one character left, Smash speculation is at its peak.

 

[SirCamp]

Eh, I wouldn't be surprised either way regarding single or double reveal tbh. I guess I would actually lean toward a double reveal just because of precedence. But by the same token, as I'm sure we have all heard waaaaaay too often in the last year, we are in unprecedented times lol. So what happens from here is less affected by precedent anyway.

Obviously the date they gave for when the pass would finish is fairly off into the future, but who knows why they gave that date. Maybe Steve was thought to take even longer than he ended up taking to code. Maybe they were just being overly cautious. Maybe that date was taking into account a bonus character, if we do in fact end up getting one. I have no idea really.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

I'm personally expecting only one reveal, with the last fighter being saved for a fall direct.

Given they're down to the last two, I'm not sure if they'll wanna unload everything right here and now.

That being said, I also wouldn't find a double reveal out of the question entirety.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Because Steve is a very polarizing character, more so than most third-parties.

Most reactor reactions are played up positively for SEO reasons. They don't necessarily fake it, but most exaggerate it. That's why happy becomes ecstatic, ambivalent becomes cheerful, and negative becomes muted. This has nothing to do with Steve in particular, that's how just most of the prominent reactors are going to react. Usually you can see as much by watching their first reaction videos where they react like normal people to more current ones where it's like they won the lottery while on coke.

I agree he was more polarizing than others, but it wasn’t like an even split or even close, still mostly positive at least as far as taking everybody in general.

I guess I’m just confused on why this matters, and I was talking about first reactions in my post (unless some reaction videos were faked but idk); the people who actually disliked him definitely seemed to show it in their videos, but oh well I guess.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

30/70 to me. Double/Single, anyway.

There's no real reason they need to do a double reveal. Every other time there were way more than 2 characters to show off, so they had actual good reasons to do so(making sure they get all the reveals done before the game release). Now they don't. Just two and that's it. Spreading it out seems logical to me in this context. Especially as they aren't really following some pattern, but logically basing it upon the situation. But I also feel like we were meant to get one reveal last E3 as well, so.

We'll see what happens, yeah.

 

[Speed Weed]

I didn't realize there was this much disparity; people should start making avatars bets over single vs. double reveals. xD

Fine then

If there's a double reveal, I will change my pfp to Rem Lezar

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Now that I think about it I could also very much see a single reveal. A character reveal does give a Sakurai Presents just that bit more of an oomph (Super Mario 64 Mario confirmed) and it keeps the hype train just that little more and it keeps the trend FP2 has followed with a “reveal now, release also almost now”

 

[SirCamp]

I'm personally expecting only one reveal, with the last fighter being saved for a fall direct.

Given they're down to the last two, I'm not sure if they'll wanna unload everything right here and now.

That being said, I also wouldn't find a double reveal out of the question entirety.

I get this thought process, but this really doesn't seem to be the type of thing that Nintendo takes into consideration when making these decisions. We often make claims about how Ninty should or would do things based on what makes sense to us. Things like ending reveals on hype characters, using the hype machine for marketing, being in tune with what the fanbase wants and acting accordingly. And more often than not it seems this claims are baseless and Nintendo just does what they want for whatever reason they want.

 

[Megadoomer]

I feel like we're going to get a single reveal - I know that the past two E3s have been double reveals, but I can't think that they'd want to reveal everything right now and have nothing Smash-related to hype up for the next 3-6 months. (unless we get a third fighters pass, but so far, they've been pretty clear that this second one is the last one)

 

[Louie G.]

Remember, when there's one character left, Smash speculation is at its peak.

That's very debatable lmao.

I feel like Smash speculation will kind of fizzle out waiting for the last character. Lots of people would come to accept that big name characters driving hype like Crash or Master Chief had their best chance at E3 (assuming they weren't revealed there) and speculation would shift heavily toward the "underwhelming" Nintendo choices and following the pattern apparently set by Corrin and Byleth.

Part of why I want this to be over is because I anticipate Smash speculation will be at its absolute worst if it doesn't end there, lots of people assuming we've already got the best they had to offer and going full doomer on the last pick. Best case scenario we have people giving attention to some smaller franchises that failed to get the same attention before, like someone more on Bayonetta's level, but unfortunately I feel like that can only really go so far. Terry already encouraged that sort of speculation and many of those characters have come and gone.

And hell, Corrin and Bayonetta wrapped things up together so I can't recall when exactly we've been in that position. At least not definitively... it's not like we have a Grinch Leak to really raise the stakes right now either.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

100%

Hope y'all are ready for the end of speculation

Smashboards after the "End of Speculation", 2021, colorized.

Source

 

[WeirdChillFever]

I get this thought process, but this really doesn't seem to be the type of thing that Nintendo takes into consideration when making these decisions. We often make claims about how Ninty should or would do things based on what makes sense to us. Things like ending reveals on hype characters, using the hype machine for marketing, being in tune with what the fanbase wants and acting accordingly. And more often than not it seems this claims are baseless and Nintendo just does what they want for whatever reason they want.

Thing is, revealing both at E3 also makes sense: If CP11 is hype, then they’d be stupid not to showcase them at the biggest stage. If CP11 is not hype, they’d be stupid to reveal them without anyone or any prospects of more to catch the backlash. Ending it at E3 also has that “well it’d be dumb not to” feeling.

Saving the final reveal to pad up a potential September Direct does make sense though, speaking from a non-Smash standpoint. Smash sells, and I imagine Nintendo wanting to hold onto that “get out of jail free”-card for just a bit longer as well.

 

[perfectchaos83]

Thing is, revealing both at E3 also makes sense: If CP11 is hype, then they’d be stupid not to showcase them at the biggest stage. If CP11 is not hype, they’d be stupid to reveal them without anyone or any prospects of more to catch the backlash. Ending it at E3 also has that “well it’d be dumb not to” feeling.

Saving the final reveal to pad up a potential September Direct does make sense though, speaking from a non-Smash standpoint. Smash sells, and I imagine Nintendo wanting to hold onto that “get out of jail free”-card for just a bit longer as well.

Remember, there was a time when Byleth was going to be our last character for Ultimate. Dwell on that for a minute.

 

[subterrestrial]

Remember, there was a time when Byleth was going to be our last character for Ultimate. Dwell on that for a minute.

not at all, they obviously planned the second season of dlc from the beginning

tbh I'd bet literally any amount of money that we're only getting 1 reveal at e3, and even 1 isn't guaranteed

 

[GoodGrief741]

Thing is, revealing both at E3 also makes sense: If CP11 is hype, then they’d be stupid not to showcase them at the biggest stage. If CP11 is not hype, they’d be stupid to reveal them without anyone or any prospects of more to catch the backlash. Ending it at E3 also has that “well it’d be dumb not to” feeling.

They've done literally all of those things though. Not reveal hype characters at E3? K. Rool says hi. Revealing unhype characters alone without anything to mitigate backlash? Byleth. There's so many things that they've done that we thought would be dumb and that are still dumb in hindsight, so I don't think that's a very strong argument.

 

[Louie G.]

Remember, there was a time when Byleth was going to be our last character for Ultimate. Dwell on that for a minute.

Might be a bit of a controversial tinfoil-y take but I highly doubt this was ever the intention. I'm pretty certain they knew they would be continuing DLC by at least "one or two" more characters as Sakurai lampshaded in Terry's presentation.

If I had to guess one of those characters was probably Steve, who in retrospect I really have a hard time imagining them not adding under any condition.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

So


How confident are y'all in a double reveal?



I think it's definitely likely, but I'm still erring on the side of EXTREME caution.

I'm like, 30-40% confident in it personally, makes sense for Nintendo'd strategy to stretch this as long as possible

Apropos of nothing, I'm gonna chime in here just to say that we need Mallo is Smash.

View attachment 317928

I mean look at the little guy! He is adorable!

And I see people talk about getting a puzzle game rep in Smash, but no one ever talks about him. Give Mallo your love!

Instructions unclear, FP10 is the Super Mario RPG character with a story arc

 

[Shroob]

I have a hard time thinking they never intended for a 2nd pass if only because they clearly divided the Mii costumes from Smash 4 with at least 2 passes in mind.


We're getting them all back, and I severely doubt it was a snap decision at the last minute to do so.

 

[Louie G.]

They've done literally all of those things though. Not reveal hype characters at E3? K. Rool says hi. Revealing unhype characters alone without anything to mitigate backlash? Byleth. There's so many things that they've done that we thought would be dumb and that are still dumb in hindsight, so I don't think that's a very strong argument.

I agree with the sentiment, but to play devil's advocate...

K. Rool got outclassed by Ridley for E3 (which IMO was probably the right move, even if I marginally prefer the croc nothing screamed ULTIMATE better than finally getting Ridley) and it seems incredibly likely that CP5 was intended for THE GAME AWARDS, so for as much backlash as Byleth already got it could have been a LOT worse and Nintendo likely had the foresight to pull the plug on that.

Of course Nintendo will always make headscratching decisions but these ones don't strike me as that weird.

 

[Noipoi]

That's very debatable lmao.

I feel like Smash speculation will kind of fizzle out waiting for the last character. Lots of people would come to accept that big name characters driving hype like Crash or Master Chief had their best chance at E3 (assuming they weren't revealed there) and speculation would shift heavily toward the "underwhelming" Nintendo choices and following the pattern apparently set by Corrin and Byleth.

Part of why I want this to be over is because I anticipate Smash speculation will be at its absolute worst if it doesn't end there, lots of people assuming we've already got the best they had to offer and going full doomer on the last pick. Best case scenario we have people giving attention to some smaller franchises that failed to get the same attention before, like someone more on Bayonetta's level, but unfortunately I feel like that can only really go so far. Terry already encouraged that sort of speculation and many of those characters have come and gone.

And hell, Corrin and Bayonetta wrapped things up together so I can't recall when exactly we've been in that position. At least not definitively... it's not like we have a Grinch Leak to really raise the stakes right now either.

Jesus, I hadn’t considered this.

Speculation has already been boring for about a year, but it’s about to be unbearable.

 

[SuperSmashStephen]

waluigi definitely has a shot with all the new merchandise coming out I wouldn't even be surprised. also wouldnt be surprised if Zarude was added to promote the new Pokemon movie because lucario and mewtwo also had movie clout before getting added.

but king boo is definitely a lock for dlc, all the evidence is there. Chun-Li is a real possibility too

King Boo? Interesting. Can you tell me why you believe King Boo is a lock?

Also, question for the general audience, who or what is Reimu, and why are they speculated to be likely? Genuine question.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I agree with the sentiment, but to play devil's advocate...

K. Rool got outclassed by Ridley for E3 (which IMO was probably the right move, even if I marginally prefer the croc nothing screamed ULTIMATE better than finally getting Ridley) and it seems incredibly likely that CP5 was intended for THE GAME AWARDS, so for as much backlash as Byleth already got it could have been a LOT worse and Nintendo likely had the foresight to pull the plug on that.

Of course Nintendo will always make headscratching decisions but these ones don't strike me as that weird.

The point still stands that FP11 being at E3 is far from the only sensible option, and that it's not something with much precedent backing it. There are plenty of hypothetical reasons why E3 might not be the best time to reveal it, and plenty of examples of times when it should have been and wasn't.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

It probs won't happen (because I doubt double dips or a double reveal), but Crash and Master Chief would be the top tier E3. Great end to a great game.

 

[SuperSmashStephen]

Aside from Crash, who is more likely now to be reveal at E3. The ones that might get in as the last fighter are Reimu or Master Chief.

My heart wants Sora. My spirit says Sora. My brain tells me Sora, Eggman, or Lloyd.

I also believe we will only get one reveal.

 

[Noipoi]

King Boo? Interesting. Can you tell me why you believe King Boo is a lock?

Also, question for the general audience, who or what is Reimu, and why are they speculated to be likely? Genuine question.

Reimu is a character from the Touhou series.

 

[perfectchaos83]

Also, question for the general audience, who or what is Reimu, and why are they speculated to be likely? Genuine question.

Main Character of Touhou Project. A very prominent Japanese indie franchise

 

[Evil Trapezium]

So


How confident are y'all in a double reveal?



I think it's definitely likely, but I'm still erring on the side of EXTREME caution.

I honestly don't see a reason for them to stretch out a 2 year old game. Like the rate they've been pushing the last three characters seems like they're already trying to wrap up Smash Ultimate's development cycle so I'm definitely feeling a double reveal. Seems a little a redundant to reveal one character at E3 and another in a presentation when the dates for them would be set regardless.

 

[SKX31]

Probably. Having multiple reveals tends to be an E3 tradition.

In b4 somehow the multiple reveals turn out to be CP10 + FP3 directed by Harada.

I agree with the sentiment, but to play devil's advocate...

K. Rool got outclassed by Ridley for E3 (which IMO was probably the right move, even if I marginally prefer the croc nothing screamed ULTIMATE better than finally getting Ridley) and it seems incredibly likely that CP5 was intended for THE GAME AWARDS, so for as much backlash as Byleth already got it could have been a LOT worse and Nintendo likely had the foresight to pull the plug on that.

Of course Nintendo will always make headscratching decisions but these ones don't strike me as that weird.

If I'm gonna make a wild guess as to why, it might be because of Nintendo's relative lack of interaction with the games' respective communities. There are certainly not many Nintendo employees on the "factory floor" so to speak, and their decisions have not been limited to the competitive segment (see also YouTubers and other segments of the Nintendo fanbases) suggesting that it's a company-wide thing. As such, they might have had a clue that a lot of Smash fans were getting increasingly tired of percieved FE overrepresentation, but they didn't really gauge how much of an issue it would be.

It has not been a crippling weakness for Nintendo because they enjoy brand loyalty out of the wazoo, but it is still a problem since a lot of their various community-related projects (like the Youtuber program they ran) have been dropped pretty damn quickly and thus that kind of undermines any sort of stability. Likewise the Byleth reveal did not harm Smash on the whole, but I can't imagine that Nintendo execs were anywhere near happy with the amount of dislikes.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I honestly don't see a reason for them to stretch out a 2 year old game. Like the rate they've been pushing the last three characters seems like they're already trying to wrap up Smash Ultimate's development cycle so I'm definitely feeling a double reveal. Seems a little a redundant to reveal one character at E3 and another in a presentation when the dates for them would be set regardless.

6 characters in 2 years and you don't think they're stretching it out?

 

[Shroob]

6 characters in 2 years and you don't think they're stretching it out?

I think a question that has to be asked is how much did the pandemic have a hand in that?


Because after the Min Min to Steve deal, we jumped right into Sephiroth and Pythra pretty close to one another, and I severely doubt we'll have long to wait for CP10 at this point either.