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[DtJ Jungle]

Going to be in Toronto for memorial day so I'll have V/LA starting tonight

 

[SwordsRbroken]

FYI, i'm going to be V/LA from Memorial day to the 11th.

 

[SwordsRbroken]

another BIM would be awesome! Sign me up assuming it doesn't start until after i'm back.

 

[Evil Eye]

hey swords kevmo just showed me phoenix wright mafia and I wanted to congratulate you on the funniest play of all time. OF ALLLLLL TIIIIME

 

[Nicholas1024]

lol. Survivor CC'ing a vig.

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

Night 1 Ends

Clovis la Britannia (Frozenflame751), Vanilla Townie, has died.

DAY 2 BEGINS

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch!
Deadline is the last second of 6/6 EST!

lol some things never change. >_<

---------------------------------------------------------

So about this whole BIM hype. I'd def. be down for rehosting it. I made a few tweaks to the setup and all that to make it actually balanced this time and not a mafia **** ****fest lol.

How do I go about getting a private game approved?

 

[Nicholas1024]

Hey, Ronike had Tom pinned right out of the gates, but Marshy and KevinM with their quickshots (Kevin's wasn't quite as quick, but he just did it out of nowhere with no real reasoning/explanation) handed the game to mafia.

 

[M.K]

Happyyy Birthdayyy too meeeeeeee =))))

<3DGames!

 

[Mayling]

happy birfday :3

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Frozen, I'm actually next in line to host a private game but I gladly let you do BIM first as long as I'm invited Since I'm actually hosting my big game next I have no issues giving you the next spot for the private one. Heard that Chibo's hosting one too so you might check that first.

 

[#HBC | ZoZo]

Happy birthday ^^

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Oh right, happy birthday Meta-Kirby ^^

 

[#HBC | ZoZo]

WHAT THE **** GHEB WHY ARE YOU STEALING MY ****ING HAPPY EYES

for ****s sake can a man be swagga in here without someone stealin' it? >_>

 

[Overswarm]

Geez Xonar, relax >_>

 

[Xiivi]

<3 Xonar, but I'm sorry Gheb wears them eyes mad cuter <3 Ghebbycakes <3

lolverswarm

 

[#HBC | ZoZo]

Did you ever get your happy eyes stolen, overswarm?
Thought so. >_>

Xiivi you make me emo, especially right now : (
/corner

 

[Overswarm]

Who would I talk to if I wanted someone to look over mafia games I've created? I have a few I've ran in the BBR and some that are waiting in que, was wondering who to have look at 'em.

 

[Xiivi]

Have marshy look over your games os. :D

also xonar you know we have a rad bromance don't be trippin yo ^^

 

[Handorin]

Or me if you want some radical ideas. =D

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

Frozen, I'm actually next in line to host a private game but I gladly let you do BIM first as long as I'm invited Since I'm actually hosting my big game next I have no issues giving you the next spot for the private one. Heard that Chibo's hosting one too so you might check that first.

If I am allowed to host it as a private game I'll definitely allow everyone who was in the original game to pre /in, but I'm sure not everyone will do so which should give you room to opt in.

Or maybe since you'd let me skip you I'd make a super ultra secret exception. =P

Yeah I guess we'll see what Chibo's thoughts are. If he's cool with it I'll get right to hosting it within a few days of getting approved. The setup is basically good to go.

 

[Xiivi]

Frozen, I'm actually next in line to host a private game but I gladly let you do BIM first as long as I'm invited Since I'm actually hosting my big game next I have no issues giving you the next spot for the private one. Heard that Chibo's hosting one too so you might check that first.

oh yeah forgot; there is no actual line for hosting private games

if you have a set-up approved by dGames modz & you have people who say yes to playing the sign-up game who agree to not let it affect their other games (see rules in Mayfia); then host it :/

 

[#HBC | ZoZo]

Have marshy look over your games os. :D

also xonar you know we have a rad bromance don't be trippin yo ^^

<3 Sowwy maayne

 

[adumbrodeus]

Why you should never avoid a day 1 lynch, even if you're not convinced the guy is mafia.


Just check the stats, lynches are a precious resource the town has, and creating a no-lynch is almost always anti-town (exceptions if you know the number of mafia and there's certain numbers of total players remaining).


That is all.

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

LOL Adum I can't believe you actually brought that thread here.

That's the most laughable **** of all time.

Dude seriously, the headline of that post is enough to show that the statistics presented in that research is only applicable to NEWBIE GAMES.

Newbie games play MUCH differently than larger, more developed games with more experienced players. Newbie games have very predicable setups, and tend to be less forgiving to town members. Also, because of the mere fact that you're citing research that is 100% NEWBIE GAMEs, your sample is in no way indicative of higher level mafia play.

There are plenty of scenarios on D1 that can call for a no lynch to occur. It is far from a hard and fast rule, and stating that "town losses 83 some odd percent of games they no lynch D1" is entirely inaccurate. 83% of NEWBIE GAME towns lost if they no lynched D1. You're overstretching the validity and scope of the data.

I agree in principle it is USUALLY a good idea to lynch D1, but it is by no means a hard and fast immutable statistical principle that must be followed.

 

[Tom]

Who would I talk to if I wanted someone to look over mafia games I've created? I have a few I've ran in the BBR and some that are waiting in que, was wondering who to have look at 'em.

marshy, xiivi

Why you should never avoid a day 1 lynch, even if you're not convinced the guy is mafia.


Just check the stats, lynches are a precious resource the town has, and creating a no-lynch is almost always anti-town (exceptions if you know the number of mafia and there's certain numbers of total players remaining).


That is all.

what if the town wants to lynch A or B and you are convinced they are both townies

 

[Vult Redux]

WELL...

yeah.

How many games here had No Lynch D1 that the Town won...?

 

[Tom]

HP and the Deathly Mafia came down to a single action to determine whether or not town or mafia won, and that had a No Lynch D1.

High School Mafia had a No Lynch D1 and town won.

so... one and a half? out of probably 5 or something.

read - sample size too small.

 

[Evil Eye]

The only D1 NL I can think of right now that Tom didn't list is Megamafia (town loss). So uh. That's 1.5 to 1 right now.

 

[Tom]

scav setup does not count

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

WELL...

yeah.

How many games here had No Lynch D1 that the Town won...?

Townie suiciding in LYLO does not count.

scav setup does not count

lol trudat.

Yay for awful statistics.

 

[SwordsRbroken]

hey swords kevmo just showed me phoenix wright mafia and I wanted to congratulate you on the funniest play of all time. OF ALLLLLL TIIIIME

Lol, that's what i get for skimming. :embarrass

 

[adumbrodeus]

It's statistics taken off a set of data large enough to be valid, and while yes, the data isn't DIRECTLY applicable, it CERTAINLY shows a strong correlation between a no lynch day 1, and losing the game.


Furthermore, pick a set-up, any set-up, I'll give you the percentage decrease for a town win with a no lynch.

what if the town wants to lynch A or B and you are convinced they are both townies

Try to start an alternative bandwagon on somebody you think is scummy.

If it's too late, pick the one you think is most scummy and say, "I think they're both bad choices, but a lynch is a precious town resource so we can't waste it".

Heck, lynching townie is still generally better then a no lynch, cause you've got a smaller pool, and in most setups the day that you'd have lylo with a d1 lynch, you just have mylo.

Plus, if the game has vig, he's wasting a shot.


Keep in mind, this is day 1, while lynching scum based in on a case happens, it takes a major slip for scum to actually reveal themselves, and the possibility that the person is stupid town exists, so day 1 reads in general are weak.


So, play the numbers.

 

[Overswarm]

I'd also like to mention most people that get away with not being lynched D1 after a strong wagon on them end up being a focus on D2 anyway.

 

[Tom]

eh nevermind, its not worth it

i was directly referring to day 1 of hp mafia

i totally disagree with lynching someone you think is town over no lynching

i dont know who your target audience is adum

 

[Nicholas1024]

If you want to see the evils of no-lynch, check Spidey-mafia. That is all.

 

[Tom]

that setup had delay problems already and had lynch problems already

 

[adumbrodeus]

so its acceptable to lynch someone you think is a townie, is what youre telling me

Yep.

You could very easily be wrong, and the losses from a no lynch are too substantial.


Let's say that we're dealing with a 12 person setup, 3 of which are scum (arbitrary). 3 out of 12, that's 25% chance of hitting scum that you can NEVER GET BACK. Lynches are a precious resource. Wasting them is a substantial net loss for town.

i dont know who your target audience is adum

People attempting to win and trying to utilize every advantage. Statistically optimized play improves your chances to win, it's that simple.


How exactly DO you balance games without using statistics assuming optimal play?

 

[Nicholas1024]

Define "optimal play". Both sides can't play optimally, that's impossible.

 

[M.K]

Trying to base a game's outcome based on one decision of an infinite many is absolutely absurd.

:/

 

[adumbrodeus]

Statistically optimized play for the positions.

While optimal behavioral play is yet to be defined (there's resources out there) kill structure is actually quite well-defined.


It's actually quite easy to prove that the more kills you make, the more likely for a given side to win.