Day, Night, and Dusk - Lycanroc for Smash Bros. Ultimate

[Delzethin]

On that note...I think we're all feeling the stress from all the talk going around. Some of us moreso than others. I think, perhaps, if we found some kind of foothold, some concrete reason to think we're not just grasping at thin air and praying for a miracle, it'd give us--and potentially others--some peace of mind.

So is there anything that could explain Vergeben and however many of his sources saying what they have, yet still being wrong on who the Pokémon newcomer is? And could it also explain how a couple other insiders could seemingly also hear similar info, yet also be wrong? What events could plausibly have occured that could tip the scales back toward us? Past precedent with Smash 4 or Brawl? Other intel of other games that Vergeben claimed to have multiple sources for in the past that turned out incorrect?

The more rock solid (heh) evidence we can gather to call these under question, the more of a foothold we can carve out to hang onto. Anything to not have to feel quite so anxious.

EDIT: Wow, talk about a perfectly timed page topper.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

On that note...I think we're all feeling the stress from all the talk going around. Some of us moreso than others. I think, perhaps, if we found some kind of foothold, some concrete reason to think we're not just grasping at thin air and praying for a miracle, it'd give us--and potentially others--some peace of mind.

So is there anything that could explain Vergeben and however many of his sources saying what they have, yet still being wrong on who the Pokémon newcomer is? And could it also explain how a couple other insiders could seemingly also hear similar info, yet also be wrong? What events could plausibly have occured that could tip the scales back toward us? Past precedent with Smash 4 or Brawl? Other intel of other games that Vergeben claimed to have multiple sources for in the past that turned out incorrect?

The more rock solid (heh) evidence we can gather to call these under question, the more of a foothold we can carve out to hang onto. Anything to not have to feel quite so anxious.

EDIT: Wow, talk about a perfectly timed page topper.

The only thing I can think of is the position of Pokémon in Smash roster decision.
The last time, Greninja was decided upon later than the rest of the roster, or at least, a placeholder was put in place for a "Gen VI Pokémon" before deciding on Greninja specifically.

Incineroar could've been a similar placeholder.

 

[Cosmic77]

On that note...I think we're all feeling the stress from all the talk going around. Some of us moreso than others. I think, perhaps, if we found some kind of foothold, some concrete reason to think we're not just grasping at thin air and praying for a miracle, it'd give us--and potentially others--some peace of mind.

So is there anything that could explain Vergeben and however many of his sources saying what they have, yet still being wrong on who the Pokémon newcomer is? And could it also explain how a couple other insiders could seemingly also hear similar info, yet also be wrong? What events could plausibly have occured that could tip the scales back toward us? Past precedent with Smash 4 or Brawl? Other intel of other games that Vergeben claimed to have multiple sources for in the past that turned out incorrect?

The more rock solid (heh) evidence we can gather to call these under question, the more of a foothold we can carve out to hang onto. Anything to not have to feel quite so anxious.

EDIT: Wow, talk about a perfectly timed page topper.

None of this is based off definitive information, but I have some theories.


(1) The sources have seen early development notes and are spitting off the characters from it, even though the Gen VII Pokemon was subject to change (like Chrom).

(2) There's a leaked pic floating around that's planned to be put on the website. It showcases Incineroar as a Pokeball Pokemon.

(3) Upcoming merchandise that may or may not be tied to Smash, such as amiibo, is in the process of getting certified, and the sources connected the dots prematurely (like Shovel Knight).

(4) Bandwagoning. One credible source says Incineroar, the others jump on board because they haven't been wrong yet and they want to keep their streak going.


I could easily find two or three holes in each of these theories, but hopefully this gives us an idea of how Verge's sources could've drawn the wrong conclusion. I don't want to say too much more because it'll sound like straw-grasping, but mistakes can happen. Verge isn't perfect, and what he says is essentially the only thing causing us to believe in Incineroar right now.

 

[DeltaSceptile]

(2) There's a leaked pic floating around that's planned to be put on the website. It showcases Incineroar as a Pokeball Pokemon.

Can you get me a link to this? Also on the topic of pokeballs, have we seen Gulpin or Groudon yet? I want to see them return if not.

 

[Luigifan18]

Can you get me a link to this? Also on the topic of pokeballs, have we seen Gulpin or Groudon yet? I want to see them return if not.

I think Gulpin has been replaced by Mimikyu. I'd love to see Groudon back, though. And Raikou, Articuno, and Zapdos along with it.

 

[RandomAce]

Can you get me a link to this? Also on the topic of pokeballs, have we seen Gulpin or Groudon yet? I want to see them return if not.

It was just an example.

 

[DeltaSceptile]

I think Gulpin has been replaced by Mimikyu. I'd love to see Groudon back, though. And Raikou, Articuno, and Zapdos along with it.

Oh yeah, I was wondering where those three went. I always think: “Why are Suicune, Entei, AND Moltres back, but not the others? Raikou was my favorite pokeball summon in melee, which I also gotta say is my favorite game (so far). That is subject to change if Ultimate brings back actual Target Smash along with what it’s already done. Seriously though, the new Smashdown mode is something I’ve wanted personally since the start of smash 4 hype.

 

[LukeRNG]

None of this is based off definitive information, but I have some theories.


(1) The sources have seen early development notes and are spitting off the characters from it, even though the Gen VII Pokemon was subject to change (like Chrom).

(2) There's a leaked pic floating around that's planned to be put on the website. It showcases Incineroar as a Pokeball Pokemon.

(3) Upcoming merchandise that may or may not be tied to Smash, such as amiibo, is in the process of getting certified, and the sources connected the dots prematurely (like Shovel Knight).

(4) Bandwagoning. One credible source says Incineroar, the others jump on board because they haven't been wrong yet and they want to keep their streak going.


I could easily find two or three holes in each of these theories, but hopefully this gives us an idea of how Verge's sources could've drawn the wrong conclusion. I don't want to say too much more because it'll sound like straw-grasping, but mistakes can happen. Verge isn't perfect, and what he says is essentially the only thing causing us to believe in Incineroar right now.

Another Random idea is that any one of his sources could've easily lied about the pokémon pick. Don't take it serioulsy though.

But something that could support the early pick being incineroar was that with the concept art featuring ash, maybe it was originally going to be the star of the anime, but with the backlash it got, changed to the pokemon that got a lot of attention during Gen 7 hype: Rockruff & Lycanroc.
The only flaw is that Lycanroc was announced before Incineroar was officially shown off, so that could be irrelevant, although didn't Incineroar get leaked before Lycanroc appeared?

 

[Chihiro Fujisaki]

On that note...I think we're all feeling the stress from all the talk going around. Some of us moreso than others. I think, perhaps, if we found some kind of foothold, some concrete reason to think we're not just grasping at thin air and praying for a miracle, it'd give us--and potentially others--some peace of mind.

So is there anything that could explain Vergeben and however many of his sources saying what they have, yet still being wrong on who the Pokémon newcomer is? And could it also explain how a couple other insiders could seemingly also hear similar info, yet also be wrong? What events could plausibly have occured that could tip the scales back toward us? Past precedent with Smash 4 or Brawl? Other intel of other games that Vergeben claimed to have multiple sources for in the past that turned out incorrect?

The more rock solid (heh) evidence we can gather to call these under question, the more of a foothold we can carve out to hang onto. Anything to not have to feel quite so anxious.

EDIT: Wow, talk about a perfectly timed page topper.

outdated info. or maybe vergeben just has faulty info. or maybe vergeben was full of **** this whole time. really theres no way to tell until it happens, most people are just piggybacking off of incineroar because vergebens word is treated like the holy gospel, though saying he has no info at all is factually incorrect.

 

[Delzethin]

Thanks for the responses so far, everyone. Feels like we're truly following in the Robin thread's footsteps.

None of this is based off definitive information, but I have some theories.


(1) The sources have seen early development notes and are spitting off the characters from it, even though the Gen VII Pokemon was subject to change (like Chrom).

(2) There's a leaked pic floating around that's planned to be put on the website. It showcases Incineroar as a Pokeball Pokemon.

(3) Upcoming merchandise that may or may not be tied to Smash, such as amiibo, is in the process of getting certified, and the sources connected the dots prematurely (like Shovel Knight).

(4) Bandwagoning. One credible source says Incineroar, the others jump on board because they haven't been wrong yet and they want to keep their streak going.


I could easily find two or three holes in each of these theories, but hopefully this gives us an idea of how Verge's sources could've drawn the wrong conclusion. I don't want to say too much more because it'll sound like straw-grasping, but mistakes can happen. Verge isn't perfect, and what he says is essentially the only thing causing us to believe in Incineroar right now.

1. This is probably our best chance. As Sakurai explained a while back, Chrom and Robin were both considered early in Smash 4's development, and Chrom got shelved due to feeling too similar to characters we already had while Robin got the all clear because of his ability to do so many things that hadn't been done in Smash before. The way Sakurai explained it makes it seem like they were considered independently of each other, but...who knows, maybe it was a lot easier to drop Chrom part way in because Robin was still there.

A lot of these hearsay leaks come from early development, so maybe this is another example. But would multiple sources all get tripped up in the same way? And would it explain how they all heard of one character who was considered but not another? Though the latter has happened before; apparently some insider info back during Smash 4 claimed Robin and Bowser Jr. were in, but since that contradicted the at-the-time-airtight Gematsu leaks, none of the insiders took it seriously.

2. A screenshot of a non-playable role being misconstrued is also possible. Especially so if the people who saw it were already presuming it had to be the go-to choice--remember Vergeben mentioning a month and a half ago how if the newcomer wasn't one of the three as per what he'd heard, then he figured it had to be Incineroar "because it's being pushed in marketing/the anime"? Well, we know that isn't actually true.

3. A bit out there since we've never had Pokémon amiibo before, but also not out of the question. What other merch could potentially create a repeat of Shovel Knight?

4. Yeah, also possible, but I doubt we can rely on it as an argument.

It's frustrating, how it seems like most "support" right now is just people jumping on board with whoever the rumors suggest. Conform or be shunned, as it were. If we could just have something happen, some kind of reveal to knock the Litten line out of the running and get people to actually start asking questions...

But something that could support the early pick being incineroar was that with the concept art featuring ash, maybe it was originally going to be the star of the anime, but with the backlash it got, changed to the pokemon that got a lot of attention during Gen 7 hype: Rockruff & Lycanroc.
The only flaw is that Lycanroc was announced before Incineroar was officially shown off, so that could be irrelevant, although didn't Incineroar get leaked before Lycanroc appeared?

I'm not sure there'd have been time to make a big, sweeping change like that with how complicated production must be. We may have heard all about the leaked concept art, but it only made the rounds among more dedicated fans, just one subset of a very large fanbase. Pacing issues aside, the Alola anime's story arcs seem pretty well structured--if they'd made a change as significant as switching who Ash's ace was for the region, wouldn't you think there'd be more signs of it? Like how the Unova anime was so shaken up due to cutting an important story arc after the earthquake happened?


By the way, Maikou , mind if I add those taunts and victory animations to the front page?

 

[LukeRNG]

It's frustrating, how it seems like most "support" right now is just people jumping on board with whoever the rumors suggest. Conform or be shunned, as it were. If we could just have something happen, some kind of reveal to knock the Litten line out of the running and get people to actually start asking questions...


I'm not sure there'd have been time to make a big, sweeping change like that with how complicated production must be. We may have heard all about the leaked concept art, but it only made the rounds among more dedicated fans, just one subset of a very large fanbase. Pacing issues aside, the Alola anime's story arcs seem pretty well structured--if they'd made a change as significant as switching who Ash's ace was for the region, wouldn't you think there'd be more signs of it? Like how the Unova anime was so shaken up due to cutting an important story arc after the earthquake happened?

- It really is frustrating: seeing many youtubers that i follow that said they'd like to see Decidueye only to switch to expecting Incineroar because of ''leaks'' that say they have ''sources'' and ''got some things right''. Doesn't matter what you say, words mean nothing unless youo have videos or even screenshots as proof. I wonder if people even realize Incineroar is currently irrelevant in the anime.
Also, didn't Vergeben get things wrong with other games before?

- That's true, it was just a random thought. Changing marketing mid-development of gen 7 games makes more sense.

 

[Chihiro Fujisaki]

i don't know where the **** all the decidueye support went but people jumped off ship so quickly... it might just be my perspective though, since a recent poll conducted among smash fans showed people wanting decidueye more than both incineroar and lycanroc. i suppose around these parts though people jumped ship really quickly when decidueyes chances became seemingly shot... i guess that kinda shows how people believe leaks so strongly around here

 

[Guynamednelson]

I was never on that ship. Prior to it being Poke Ball'd I thought Mimikyu would be the most realistic choice, with Lycanroc being second.

 

[AlphaSSB]

i don't know where the **** all the decidueye support went but people jumped off ship so quickly... it might just be my perspective though, since a recent poll conducted among smash fans showed people wanting decidueye more than both incineroar and lycanroc. i suppose around these parts though people jumped ship really quickly when decidueyes chances became seemingly shot... i guess that kinda shows how people believe leaks so strongly around here

Decidueye's support-base was at its peak prior to E3. Once E3 came around, some of the 'Grass starter bandwagon' types left since Ivysaur was returning. Some of Decidueye's main supporters felt that his chances were lower due to Ivysaur returning as well. Though I'd argue the majority of the support-base were still rooting for him.

Once Vergeben struck with the rumors, many came to believe he was done for. Just threw in the towel. This caused much of the support-base to grow quiet. Even the thread's owner has been on hiatus. Of course, many people still genuinely want Decidueye because of who he his and what he brings to the table, just look at that poll you mentioned for example. They just feel that their only hope for him at this point is if there's a Gematsu situation with Incineroar, and Decidueye makes it in instead. Same situation as Lycanroc, but looked at less optimistically.

As for me, I'm in damage control mode at this point. Smash Ultimate has already done a lot of things I'm not keen on, and so I've got nothing to lose by keeping expectations low. If there is a Gematsu situation at hand, I'd be very glad to see Decidueye or Lycanroc. If Vergeben's words hold true, then I hope Incineroar's potential as an over-the-top grappler is fully realized, as I feel he has equal potential to fall on his face as a boring wrestler.

 

[Maikou]

So, uh.....funny story about my relationship with Pokemon right now. I don't have Ultra Sun/Ultra Moon yet and only just this morning completed Lana and Kiawe's trials in Sun, alongside only just evolving my Rockruff on that file. I have an odd thing with Pokemon. The franchise is truly my childhood, but while I'm avid and dedicated whenever I get into the mood for it, if I'm not really feeling it, I kind of almost ignore the franchise's existence. It's weird, but it's true. Anyway, Chibiterasu has finally evolved, and is ready to Accelerock and roll. Even however long ago I couldn't resist Okami references.

Also, I just realized that the obligatory howling is actually somewhat justified by the move Howl's existence. I haven't done much in competitive battling so far, but Howl's Attack buff seems like it'd be the kind of thing you'd want at a tournament. Obviously the taunt howls wouldn't actually buff your attack, but still.

By the way, Maikou , mind if I add those taunts and victory animations to the front page?

I don't mind at all! I'm honored, really.

 

[Chihiro Fujisaki]

Decidueye's support-base was at its peak prior to E3. Once E3 came around, some of the 'Grass starter bandwagon' types left since Ivysaur was returning. Some of Decidueye's main supporters felt that his chances were lower due to Ivysaur returning as well. Though I'd argue the majority of the support-base were still rooting for him.

Once Vergeben struck with the rumors, many came to believe he was done for. Just threw in the towel. This caused much of the support-base to grow quiet. Even the thread's owner has been on hiatus. Of course, many people still genuinely want Decidueye because of who he his and what he brings to the table, just look at that poll you mentioned for example. They just feel that their only hope for him at this point is if there's a Gematsu situation with Incineroar, and Decidueye makes it in instead. Same situation as Lycanroc, but looked at less optimistically.

As for me, I'm in damage control mode at this point. Smash Ultimate has already done a lot of things I'm not keen on, and so I've got nothing to lose by keeping expectations low. If there is a Gematsu situation at hand, I'd be very glad to see Decidueye or Lycanroc. If Vergeben's words hold true, then I hope Incineroar's potential as an over-the-top grappler is fully realized, as I feel he has equal potential to fall on his face as a boring wrestler.

oh yeah i'm with you on incineroar. it'd be such a boring addition in my opinion. again, sorry to those who like it, but it's just my own thoughts on the pokemon. hopefully sakurai makes the right choice

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Decidueye's support-base was at its peak prior to E3. Once E3 came around, some of the 'Grass starter bandwagon' types left since Ivysaur was returning. Some of Decidueye's main supporters felt that his chances were lower due to Ivysaur returning as well. Though I'd argue the majority of the support-base were still rooting for him.

Once Vergeben struck with the rumors, many came to believe he was done for. Just threw in the towel. This caused much of the support-base to grow quiet. Even the thread's owner has been on hiatus. Of course, many people still genuinely want Decidueye because of who he his and what he brings to the table, just look at that poll you mentioned for example. They just feel that their only hope for him at this point is if there's a Gematsu situation with Incineroar, and Decidueye makes it in instead. Same situation as Lycanroc, but looked at less optimistically.

As for me, I'm in damage control mode at this point. Smash Ultimate has already done a lot of things I'm not keen on, and so I've got nothing to lose by keeping expectations low. If there is a Gematsu situation at hand, I'd be very glad to see Decidueye or Lycanroc. If Vergeben's words hold true, then I hope Incineroar's potential as an over-the-top grappler is fully realized, as I feel he has equal potential to fall on his face as a boring wrestler.

I think it's not as much "Ivysaur returning' as it is "Charizard loses his stand-alone position"

Whatever happens with Incineroar's moveset if he's truly in the game, he got picked by Sakurai over Lycanroc and Decidueye, two of the more unique characters this round of speculation has to offer.
As we noticed, either his "anime importance" is a very late-bloomer that Sakurai was aware of in 2015, or, much more likely, Incineroar is gonna get the best moveset as it was him who then danced around in Sakurai's mind even more than Decidueye's ridiculously imaginative design or Lycanroc's quadruped stance.

Because that's all I can think of for Incineroar. Other factors like popularity and recency are obviously irrelevant for Pokémon's picks, and we've established that Incineroar having anime prominence in the wings bigger than Lycanroc is unlikely.
I think that if Incineroar is in, we're in for a big treat moveset-wise

And this is what I'm leaning towards myself: Incineroar just sparking something in Sakurai's mind that combines all elements of his design in one complete ass-kicking package, beyond what our admittedly biased views on the tiger's moveset potential might've cooked up.

Also, wait.
Did Vergeben himself say Cinero was picked due to anime prominence, or are we filling in what others are filling in on what "must" be the case?

 

[BluePikmin11]

Verge didn't say anything beyond the Pokemon not being Lycanroc, Mimikyu, Decidueye, and the Pokemon being Incineroar confirmed by multiple sources.

Not unlike what Verge said about Simon's inclusion when he heard the ballot and Netflix series being factors to his addition.

 

[Delzethin]

Also, wait.
Did Vergeben himself say Cinero was picked due to anime prominence, or are we filling in what others are filling in on what "must" be the case?

It was in a reply to a commenter, shortly after his "no Decidueye, Mimikyu, or Lycanroc" claim. Someone had replied to his post saying "Then I guess it's Incineroar?" or something to that extent. His reponse was "I guess it has to be, with how much it's being promoted in merchandise/the anime".

Except it's not, at least not to the extent a lot of speculators have decided it must be.

I don't remember exactly where he said it--I think it was GameFAQs, but I'm not sure. I know he said it, though, because it stuck out to me as faulty logic. Made me think "Goddammit, now he's jumping to conclusions about that too? And everyone's going to just take it at face value and assume it's a true statement!"

Perhaps this means he may be predisposed to thinking Incineroar must've been the go-to choice. Maybe it led to him or some of his sources presuming things they shouldn't've, like the source of the Gematsu leaks did. But we don't know for sure, and because of that we cannot rely on it as an argument.

 

[Garteam]

Here's a shower thought I've had. Granted, it's a massive reach, but I thought it was worth sharing:

It's fairly clear, at least from where I stand, that the Ken leak has way too many details to not be real (Pichu's portrait being the same outdated one from the demo, both Ken and Pac-Man's leg clipping into the ramp of Moray Towers, etc.). On paper, this should be a point for Vergeben, seeing how he predicted Ken. However, there's an odd anomaly with Ken relative to the other characters Vergeben has leaked, Ken is the only echo fighter thus far.

Of course, Ken could be a semi-clone ala Isabelle or Lucas, but this seems unlikely given Ken's similarities to Ryu in Street Fighter II (the game Smash draws most from regarding Street Fighter). Additionally, if Sakurai wanted a second unique Street Fighter, why wouldn't he go for the much more unique and popular Chun-Li? Plus, if Vergeben did have info on the echo fighter, why wouldn't he leak the much more hard to predict echo fighters like Dark Samus, Chrom, and Richter? There's two explanations for this: Vergeben gained an additional source that would know of the echo fighters, or Vergeben is now just making predictions. If the second explanation is true, perhaps he truly doesn't know about Incineroar?

 

[RandomAce]

Here's a shower thought I've had. Granted, it's a massive reach, but I thought it was worth sharing:

It's fairly clear, at least from where I stand, that the Ken leak has way too many details to not be real (Pichu's portrait being the same outdated one from the demo, both Ken and Pac-Man's leg clipping into the ramp of Moray Towers, etc.). On paper, this should be a point for Vergeben, seeing how he predicted Ken. However, there's an odd anomaly with Ken relative to the other characters Vergeben has leaked, Ken is the only echo fighter thus far.

Of course, Ken could be a semi-clone ala Isabelle or Lucas, but this seems unlikely given Ken's similarities to Ryu in Street Fighter II (the game Smash draws most from regarding Street Fighter). Additionally, if Sakurai wanted a second unique Street Fighter, why wouldn't he go for the much more unique and popular Chun-Li? Plus, if Vergeben did have info on the echo fighter, why wouldn't he leak the much more hard to predict echo fighters like Dark Samus, Chrom, and Richter? There's two explanations for this: Vergeben gained an additional source that would know of the echo fighters, or Vergeben is now just making predictions. If the second explanation is true, perhaps he truly doesn't know about Incineroar?

I think it’s possible that Ken could’ve been one of the first echoes or the first echo concieved and is why Verge had information on him. There’s evidence that supports this since Ken is history oldest finest example of clone characters, seeing how he has the same moveset as Ryu whole over time shows how you can make subtle differences to distinguish them despite having a similar base moveset, which Ken also shows. Not to mention that canonically Ryu and Ken learn the same fighting style, Ken later on gave some twists to his.

The fact that Vergeben didn’t have information on most of the echoes, seems to imply that Verge seems to have more older information. That and the fact that Verge wasn’t able to leak King K. Rool shows that he doesn’t have all the information.

 

[PeridotGX]

You know that Incineroar render that's been going around (It's not a leak)? Well it comes from a Pokémon Trading Card Game Theme-Deck. Why am I mentioning it? Lycanroc has two of them.



Not saying it increases our chances, but it's neat to see the renders.

 

[Spinosaurus]

I think it's not as much "Ivysaur returning' as it is "Charizard loses his stand-alone position"

Whatever happens with Incineroar's moveset if he's truly in the game, he got picked by Sakurai over Lycanroc and Decidueye, two of the more unique characters this round of speculation has to offer.
As we noticed, either his "anime importance" is a very late-bloomer that Sakurai was aware of in 2015, or, much more likely, Incineroar is gonna get the best moveset as it was him who then danced around in Sakurai's mind even more than Decidueye's ridiculously imaginative design or Lycanroc's quadruped stance.

Because that's all I can think of for Incineroar. Other factors like popularity and recency are obviously irrelevant for Pokémon's picks, and we've established that Incineroar having anime prominence in the wings bigger than Lycanroc is unlikely.
I think that if Incineroar is in, we're in for a big treat moveset-wise

And this is what I'm leaning towards myself: Incineroar just sparking something in Sakurai's mind that combines all elements of his design in one complete ***-kicking package, beyond what our admittedly biased views on the tiger's moveset potential might've cooked up.

Also, wait.
Did Vergeben himself say Cinero was picked due to anime prominence, or are we filling in what others are filling in on what "must" be the case?

I'm leaning less picked for moveset potential (not that there isn't one for a wrestler!) and more...his personality, actually.

One thing Sun/Moon did was make its Pokemon very expressive, and the one that stands above them all is Incineroar. In Smash, we either have cute Pokemon, or stoic ones, with Charizard being the one exception - a beastly Pokemon. Incineroar is none of those though, he has a boisterous, wild and fun personality. A Pokemon that plays up an act as part of its persona and is incredibly animated and emotive. Something that's prevalent in this game is how much better the animations are, and how much more expressive the characters are. I wouldn't be shocked if Sakurai passed over every other possible Pokemon for Incineroar because he appealed to him a lot in that regard. (And personally, even if I prefer the likes of Mimikyu and Decidueye, I really do think he's the best pick.)

 

[WeirdChillFever]

I'm leaning less picked for moveset potential (not that there isn't one for a wrestler!) and more...his personality, actually.

One thing Sun/Moon did was make its Pokemon very expressive, and the one that stands above them all is Incineroar. In Smash, we either have cute Pokemon, or stoic ones, with Charizard being the one exception - a beastly Pokemon. Incineroar is none of those though, he has a boisterous, wild and fun personality. A Pokemon that plays up an act as part of its persona and is incredibly animated and emotive. Something that's prevalent in this game is how much better the animations are, and how much expressive the characters. I wouldn't be shocked if Sakurai passed over every other possible Pokemon for Incineroar because he appealed to him a lot in that regard. (And personally, even if I prefer the likes of Mimikyu and Decidueye, I really do think he's the best pick.)

Yup! It's all part of the package I talked about and this package packs a pair of pretty pecs!

Midnight Lycanroc could pull off something similar and still have the rock-moveset, but it switches having a personality that's as clear as...day, for being bipedal, whereas one thing I really love about Lycanroc's design is him being quadruped, which gives him a very unique spot on the roster only besides Duck Hunt and Ivysaur, ironically enough.

And Lycanroc does have a personality. A focussed attitude that can turn into a berserk-like tunnel vision once the scales are tipped. And it isn't just an in-text lore thing: The anime dedicated an arc to it.
However, how to portray that in Smash is a difficult question so I can imagine Sakurai saw Lycanroc's lore as all bark, no bite and went for a persona a little more on the nose

 

[RandomAce]

You know that Incineroar render that's been going around (It's not a leak)? Well it comes from a Pokémon Trading Card Game Theme-Deck. Why am I mentioning it? Lycanroc has two of them.



Not saying it increases our chances, but it's neat to see the renders.

Midnight has one too...

All three forms had these types of renders. Midday and Midnight have a second one as well for their GX cards.

Spoiler: Big Ass Images

The Lycanroc packs (or whatever you call them) were the first non starter packs released shortly after the starters. It helps support the idea that they were a pretty big deal.

 

[PeridotGX]

Midnight has one too...
View attachment 166264
All three forms had these types of renders.

Midday and Midnight have a second one as well for their GX cards.

How'd I forget about the Pack art (Probably because it's not the PTCGO one)?

It'd be cool if someone could get transparent versions of the art.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Shower thought: Sakurai would not have to go with Dusk form mainly because of the anime. He can still go with the other forms such as Midnight Form. I know it is not the exact same thing, but he can still go for other options when it comes to choosing designs for characters like LBW Zelda being chosen over BOTW Zelda, even when the latter form is currently in the spotlight.

 

[Garteam]

I'm leaning less picked for moveset potential (not that there isn't one for a wrestler!) and more...his personality, actually.

One thing Sun/Moon did was make its Pokemon very expressive, and the one that stands above them all is Incineroar. In Smash, we either have cute Pokemon, or stoic ones, with Charizard being the one exception - a beastly Pokemon. Incineroar is none of those though, he has a boisterous, wild and fun personality. A Pokemon that plays up an act as part of its persona and is incredibly animated and emotive. Something that's prevalent in this game is how much better the animations are, and how much expressive the characters. I wouldn't be shocked if Sakurai passed over every other possible Pokemon for Incineroar because he appealed to him a lot in that regard. (And personally, even if I prefer the likes of Mimikyu and Decidueye, I really do think he's the best pick.)

I don't know if Sakurai would pick an entire character based on personality. Sure, personality has an effect on a character's movements and the way they perform attacks (which goes back to the idea of characters "dancing" in Sakurai's head), but I don't think it's enough to solely carry a character. If the character's general playstyle and moves from their source material are already represented, then a distinct personality can only do so much to differentiate that character.

While Sakurai could go all in on personality while avoiding the character's canon abilities (which in Incineroar's case would be going all in on the heel concept, with moves such as hitting opponents with chairs and spitting in their eyes, while completely ignoring the conventional Pokemon aspects of the character), he's been extremely hesitant about straying too far from the character's identity in the games. It's this importance on maintaining identity that led to Chrom and Ridley's exclusion from Smash for, as he couldn't think of ways to make those characters function while still being unique and feeling true to the character.

 

[SmashChu]

On that note...I think we're all feeling the stress from all the talk going around. Some of us moreso than others. I think, perhaps, if we found some kind of foothold, some concrete reason to think we're not just grasping at thin air and praying for a miracle, it'd give us--and potentially others--some peace of mind.

So is there anything that could explain Vergeben and however many of his sources saying what they have, yet still being wrong on who the Pokémon newcomer is? And could it also explain how a couple other insiders could seemingly also hear similar info, yet also be wrong? What events could plausibly have occured that could tip the scales back toward us? Past precedent with Smash 4 or Brawl? Other intel of other games that Vergeben claimed to have multiple sources for in the past that turned out incorrect?

The more rock solid (heh) evidence we can gather to call these under question, the more of a foothold we can carve out to hang onto. Anything to not have to feel quite so anxious.

EDIT: Wow, talk about a perfectly timed page topper.

Yeah, it's Verge.

He's notorious for getting things wrong. Remember the two Castlevania games at E3. Or the characters in SC6 that wouldn't happen but did? And I'm still waiting for the Switch Soul Caliber 6 with a Fire Emblem character. From what I've been hearing, he's taking information from other people and passing it off as his own. I know Ridley was talked about constantly before his reveal. I've heard some people knew of Simon (think Stealth said something). By the way, he's done this with Street Fighter 5 as well. And lastly, you can kind of tell he's bull****ing or taking information from others. When the box theory came up, he was taken aback and claimed that he couldn't disprove it. At the same time, he's saying there was going to be Incinaroar, Ken and another SE character. Now the SE character is DLC. Almost like how he claimed Goku Black was DLC.

As a general advice, never take "leakers" on their word when they talk about sources. That's just BS to try and make it beleivable. If you remember, Laura Dale had 6 sources and even detailed who said what. Almost everything she said ended up being wrong. So them saying they have "sources" means nothing. You can't see what was said to these people so you shouldn't put much stock into it.

In general, I say ignore "leakers", Verge especially. He's so unreliable that you might as well wait and see. If he's right, cool, if not, it's business as usual. Not much reason to put faith into a guy who gets stuff wrong all the time.

i don't know where the **** all the decidueye support went but people jumped off ship so quickly... it might just be my perspective though, since a recent poll conducted among smash fans showed people wanting decidueye more than both incineroar and lycanroc. i suppose around these parts though people jumped ship really quickly when decidueyes chances became seemingly shot... i guess that kinda shows how people believe leaks so strongly around here

Its pretty common. Rex was far more popular than Elma but once people got it in their head Rex can't be in on release (timing thing) Elma surged in popularity. The Same fanbase bandwagons hard. My personal belief is its going to be Decidueye. I think the fact he was added to Pokken was important. Plus, everyone tells me Incinaroar is totally being pushed but I don't see that. I think they only bring it up compared to Decidueye but thats because they push Rowlet, the most popular Pokemon from Gen 7.

 

[DeltaSceptile]

My personal belief is its going to be Decidueye. I think the fact he was added to Pokken was important

You realize there’s another grass starter in pokken right? One of a certain gecko variety? I would say because the ballot was made while ORAS was still the latest mainline pokemon game, Sceptile was easily the first grass starter option for smash. Also, something from Sceptile’s line better get some mention in smash at this point. Even the Grovyle from pokemon mystery dungeon has picked up some support now!

 

[SmashChu]

You realize there’s another grass starter in pokken right? One of a certain gecko variety? I would say because the ballot was made while ORAS was still the latest mainline pokemon game, Sceptile was easily the first grass starter option for smash. Also, something from Sceptile’s line better get some mention in smash at this point. Even the Grovyle from pokemon mystery dungeon has picked up some support now!

Pokemon tends to focus on the newest generation. Decidueye was the Pokemon they chose from Gen 7 so I think there is something they saw with him which will help him fro Smash

 

[Guynamednelson]

At the same time, Pokken and Smash's Pokemon selection doesn't have that much overlap, with only the biggest mascots being shared between the two rosters.

 

[Garteam]

i don't know where the **** all the decidueye support went but people jumped off ship so quickly... it might just be my perspective though, since a recent poll conducted among smash fans showed people wanting decidueye more than both incineroar and lycanroc. i suppose around these parts though people jumped ship really quickly when decidueyes chances became seemingly shot... i guess that kinda shows how people believe leaks so strongly around here

This has basically been the way Pokemon support has gone thus far:
Stage 1: Decidueye is the most popular choice, due to appearing in Pokken and completing the type starter trio.

Stage 2: People realize that Decidueye has yet to appear in the anime and Ash's Rowlet is unlikely to evolve, plus Ivysaur destroys some excitement over the idea of a grass type. Thusly, people begin flocking to Mimikyu... without realizing that Mimikyu is not actually prominent in the anime at all, and is a reoccuring supporting character at best.

Stage 3: The stage we're currently in. Vergeben "leaks" that Decidueye, Mimikyu, and Lycanroc aren't in the game, so Incineroar becomes the forerunner practically overnight. Mimikyu's deconfirmation in the Smash Direct also boosts support for Incineroar. Much like with Mimikyu, Incineroar is cited for his important role in the anime, without realizing that Incineroar isn't actually in the anime often, and there's no guarantee Torracat will evolve again.

 

[DeltaSceptile]

Much like with Mimikyu, Incineroar is cited for his important role in the anime, without realizing that Incineroar isn't actually in the anime often, and there's no guarantee Torracat will evolve again.

Exactly. Torracat could end up just like Pignite, being stuck in middle evolution limbo. Also, Unova is a solid reminder that starters don’t have to be Ash’s ace every time.

 

[Maikou]

Exactly. Torracat could end up just like Pignite, being stuck in middle evolution limbo. Also, Unova is a solid reminder that starters don’t have to be Ash’s ace every time.

Unfortunately for some of us, Unova is also a solid reminder of how bad writing can screw over a good character. Or a lot of characters, honestly. That said, you make a good point. Honestly, I kinda hope Torracat doesn't evolve, both for Lycanroc's sake and because I honestly have never liked Incineroar's design. I'm really not looking forward to Amazon's evolution in my file...

 

[LukeRNG]

Exactly. Torracat could end up just like Pignite, being stuck in middle evolution limbo. Also, Unova is a solid reminder that starters don’t have to be Ash’s ace every time.

And Johto didn't even give ash a definitive ace at all, most of his Johto pokemon were very balanced in terms of spotlight.

And i'm actually curious about the percentage of Incineroar ''supporters'' that are there because of bandwagoning vs how many actually want and support Incineroar.

 

[Chihiro Fujisaki]

And Johto didn't even give ash a definitive ace at all, most of his Johto pokemon were very balanced in terms of spotlight.

And i'm actually curious about the percentage of Incineroar ''supporters'' that are there because of bandwagoning vs how many actually want and support Incineroar.

i'm sure incineroar has its fans. the pokemon has an appeal to it with its personality primarily. however, i'd be willing to believe that around 50% are bandwagoners, 30% wanted him from the start, and 20% wanted him after thinking about it.

 

[Delzethin]

You know that Incineroar render that's been going around (It's not a leak)? Well it comes from a Pokémon Trading Card Game Theme-Deck. Why am I mentioning it? Lycanroc has two of them.



Not saying it increases our chances, but it's neat to see the renders.

Midnight has one too...
View attachment 166264
All three forms had these types of renders. Midday and Midnight have a second one as well for their GX cards.

Spoiler: Big *** Images

View attachment 166266View attachment 166267

The Lycanroc packs (or whatever you call them) were the first non starter packs released shortly after the starters. It helps support the idea that they were a pretty big deal.

Yeah, the fact that the first theme deck for Gen 7 based around anything other than a starter, and the first non-starter GX-class card that debuted therein, both involved a Lycanroc is further proof that this line was planned to be a big deal from the get go. I even pointed it out in the earlier Challenger Approaching video!

On a side note, that leaping pose Dusk is doing there is probably close to what the actual Smash render would be like.

I'm leaning less picked for moveset potential (not that there isn't one for a wrestler!) and more...his personality, actually.

One thing Sun/Moon did was make its Pokemon very expressive, and the one that stands above them all is Incineroar. In Smash, we either have cute Pokemon, or stoic ones, with Charizard being the one exception - a beastly Pokemon. Incineroar is none of those though, he has a boisterous, wild and fun personality. A Pokemon that plays up an act as part of its persona and is incredibly animated and emotive. Something that's prevalent in this game is how much better the animations are, and how much more expressive the characters are. I wouldn't be shocked if Sakurai passed over every other possible Pokemon for Incineroar because he appealed to him a lot in that regard. (And personally, even if I prefer the likes of Mimikyu and Decidueye, I really do think he's the best pick.)

There're a couple problems with that line of thought, though. For one, would personality alone be enough to sell a character, especially one whose abilities aren't very unique compared to fighters we already have? We haven't yet seen a newcomer get in who was carried by personality and had little to offer otherwise--in fact, we saw the opposite happen once already when Chrom got sidelined.

Secondly...who's to say the other Pokémon candidates aren't expressive? In fact, part of Lycanroc's appeal is the wide array of emotions the three forms are capable of. And the anime is very good at displaying them:

That's all the same individual. If the anime is capable of that using just design notes and lore, wouldn't you figure Sakurai and his attention to detail could manage it too? Why would Incineroar be the only one to offer any standout personality just because it's the most upfront about it on the leaked concept art, when its counterparts offer similar depth for anyone willing to look beyond the surface?

At least...I'd sure hope Sakurai and crew looked at more than just one sheet of concept art. It'd be rather unprofessional to rely on so little information for something as momentous as a new Smash game. You want to be as well-informed as you can get in order to make the character concepts for these newcomers. It's something I've learned firsthand.

Yeah, it's Verge.

He's notorious for getting things wrong. Remember the two Castlevania games at E3. Or the characters in SC6 that wouldn't happen but did? And I'm still waiting for the Switch Soul Caliber 6 with a Fire Emblem character. From what I've been hearing, he's taking information from other people and passing it off as his own. I know Ridley was talked about constantly before his reveal. I've heard some people knew of Simon (think Stealth said something). By the way, he's done this with Street Fighter 5 as well. And lastly, you can kind of tell he's bull****ing or taking information from others. When the box theory came up, he was taken aback and claimed that he couldn't disprove it. At the same time, he's saying there was going to be Incinaroar, Ken and another SE character. Now the SE character is DLC. Almost like how he claimed Goku Black was DLC.

As a general advice, never take "leakers" on their word when they talk about sources. That's just BS to try and make it beleivable. If you remember, Laura Dale had 6 sources and even detailed who said what. Almost everything she said ended up being wrong. So them saying they have "sources" means nothing. You can't see what was said to these people so you shouldn't put much stock into it.

Careful. Vergeben has missed stuff in the past, but we need to keep our facts straight. For one, he himself has never implied the Square-Enix rumors are for DLC--that's all been Box Theory believers who've decided the SE character must be such.

That said...do you have links to Laura elaborating on her sources? She got a lot of undue mudslinging for what happened, but if it really was an example of multiple sources all being mistaken about something, then we may have found the counterpoint we've needed.

This has basically been the way Pokemon support has gone thus far:
Stage 1: Decidueye is the most popular choice, due to appearing in Pokken and completing the type starter trio.

Stage 2: People realize that Decidueye has yet to appear in the anime and Ash's Rowlet is unlikely to evolve, plus Ivysaur destroys some excitement over the idea of a grass type. Thusly, people begin flocking to Mimikyu... without realizing that Mimikyu is not actually prominent in the anime at all, and is a reoccuring supporting character at best.

Stage 3: The stage we're currently in. Vergeben "leaks" that Decidueye, Mimikyu, and Lycanroc aren't in the game, so Incineroar becomes the forerunner practically overnight. Mimikyu's deconfirmation in the Smash Direct also boosts support for Incineroar. Much like with Mimikyu, Incineroar is cited for his important role in the anime, without realizing that Incineroar isn't actually in the anime often, and there's no guarantee Torracat will evolve again.

Pretty much.

Let us hope there is a Stage 4. Would be nice to not be waved off for once.

 

[RandomAce]

I don't know if Sakurai would pick an entire character based on personality. Sure, personality has an effect on a character's movements and the way they perform attacks (which goes back to the idea of characters "dancing" in Sakurai's head), but I don't think it's enough to solely carry a character. If the character's general playstyle and moves from their source material are already represented, then a distinct personality can only do so much to differentiate that character.

While Sakurai could go all in on personality while avoiding the character's canon abilities (which in Incineroar's case would be going all in on the heel concept, with moves such as hitting opponents with chairs and spitting in their eyes, while completely ignoring the conventional Pokemon aspects of the character), he's been extremely hesitant about straying too far from the character's identity in the games. It's this importance on maintaining identity that led to Chrom and Ridley's exclusion from Smash for, as he couldn't think of ways to make those characters function while still being unique and feeling true to the character.

(I see a perfect opportunity)

Although personality and being true to character isn’t the sole reason for a charcater’s inclusion, Lycanroc isn’t a slouch on that front either. All Lycanroc forms have distinct boat loads of personality. Sure Incineroar may have more personality since that is a part of it’s design after all, but that’s not to say Lycanroc is that far behind. In fact, the Lycanroc forms have a lot of lore that go into them like how they usually act, how they came to be, and their personalities and preferred life styles, and how they usually are with their trainers, etc. This can be seen here: Midday and Midnight. And seeing how these concepts are part of their core design, I’d say that their lore was one of the first things Sakurai was given when seeing this Pokémon.

Another benefit, is that not only are their personalities and core designs there character wise, but also play a role in their potential playstyles as well. Middays are more well known to be fast agile Pokémon to get the job done quickly, as they don’t like getting into conflicts (although they are shown to do some friendly battles from time to time) which is also shown in it’s unique move Accelerock which is a priority move. Midnights like battles and usually thrive in them even if it costs them, and like to bait their opponents into making mistakes and punishing them with powerful attacks. This is also shown in it’s signature move, Counter, which causes Midnight to take damage but deal hefty loads of damage. And Dusk combines the two to create a unique enitity of a fast brawler that locks down into their opponent to satisfy their battle thriving spirit, which is technically shown in their move thrash, as Dusk takes damage, but does a lot back. All of their personalities are intertwined with their playstyles.

So essentially, Lycanroc easily kills two birds in one stone when coming up a moveset that involves both their in depth personalities and unique potential moveset. It’s one of the reason why I like Lycanroc a lot and see them as a serious contender. There are a lot of things that makes Lycanroc interesting when you look deeper into them that might end up intriguing to Sakurai to find them worth putting his time into, and it’s why I’m not giving up on them.

 

[GlaceonGD]

I've lately been having a tough time talking about anything smash related because it seems that every person I come across is dead set on vergeben being 100% flawlessly right about everything. I often argue points about how he could be wrong or how incineroar isn't the only option but they all counterattack with the same points over and over, because they have nothing else to prove that it's right. "Well incineroar has anime prominence so he makes sense and there aren't any characters like him yet so Sakurai would have gone with him" is an almost daily thing I see in the chat, and when I say all those things can apply to Lycanroc as well they respond with something along the lines of "after the rockruff evolved in the anime they sidelined it and it isn't prominent anymore." My entire time in that server only one person has agreed with me that incineroar isn't a lock (even though he thinks it'll be decidueye and not Lycanroc) and it's kinda sad seeing the effects of what vergeben has said this much.

I really do think we may be some of the only people left who aren't on the incineroar bandwagon, but the fact that we are still going and not abandoning ship even with the odds against us shows that we're determined to support the character we actually want, not just the one that everyone thinks is most likely. While yes it may be very difficult to rally more people to our cause, it's not impossible so we just have to keep pushing on until confirmation or deconfirmation. Sadly, people these days (from what I've seen so far) will pretty much believe anything you put in front of them, but like I said that only makes it difficult not impossible.

Delzethin I don't think I ever commented on your reply about the discord server so here we go. I agree that we need to be more open to the public for now to raise awareness, and that the server can wait for now. While it would be nice to talk about smash on a server without wanting to leave it out of frustration I respectfully accept your opinion on the matter. Maybe sometime in the future, but not now.

Now as a last part to this post I would like to talk about uniqueness and character related aspects. As probably none of you know, I am a writer (not a very good one, but I'm trying to improve) and the one thing I know how to do best is take an idea and make it into a unique character. I could be watching a movie, watching a show, listening to music, playing a game of some kind, all of these can inspire me to work with the things I've been shown. Heck, one of my mii fighters from smash 4 has become a fully fledged and original character in my writing and all I had to go off of was a default sword fighter. Let's just say I know my way around creating characters and making them unique. And knowing what I know, yes, I have come up with a decent character idea/character arc for an incineroar based character but I've created more than one for characters I have based on Lycanroc.

Sorry for the long winded rant, sometimes I don't know when to stop and with the stress I've been having recently I needed to get it out. To end off this post, I'd just like to say that I personally see so much more potential in Lycanroc than I do in incineroar, and I really hope Sakurai has been thinking the same way.