I actually fear that people will start seeing through Joker and the things that he actually is good at, will begin to turn away from him. I'm getting that initial King K. Rool vibe. A character who seemed to have such good potential, in this case in Arsene. It seems so good, probably because it turns a very questionable character into a very buffed character with strong killing options, projectile and perhaps combo potential. Such a character "feels" really good but things have already been suggested that could hinder it.
1.) Simply running away until it runs out. Perhaps easier said than done but not an impossibility.
2.) Zoning and chipping away the Persona gauge.
3.) I'm also unsure of how well Persona Joker's combo potential is compared to his Base Form.
I believe that people will find a way around Arsene, just because its natural to adapt to things. People will learn the flaws of Arsene, whatever they might and then use and manipulate them to their advantage. It's happened to nearly everyone and some characters adapt and still keep going while others fall to the side.
was a character who didn't seem to be able to adapt (and then got several nerfs on the way) and it severely effected him.
Arsene Joker will be no different and the question is, can he adapt well enough to keep going or are his buffs to such a form great enough that, even hindered, he still proves a threat? At his point only time will tell.
Then you have Base Joker who, regardless of how much one might think his capabilities are, there's no doubt he has fundamental problems. People have suggested that Base Joker even has a questionable neutral and if that's true, that's a problem. Having a weak neutral is one of the worst things you can have. It's the primary reason that
is such a weak character.
This is the reason that, even with Joker's good capabilities, I don't think I can put him in High Tier. For one, I think there are plenty of high tier characters who could give Persona Joker a fight. They've got just as good mobility, killing power, arguably better combo potential, edgeguarding, projectile, etc. The only difference is that, none of them are forced to "cool down" into a weaker version of themselves for about 1-2 minutes.
There is no way I can see Joker getting into High Tier if he continues have such a flaw but if Arsene continues to be as good as it feels, I can see him reaching to Upper Mid, maybe just cradling the line of High Tier.
Overall, if Arsene can continue to be successful and Base Joker can improve, Joker can definitely see himself as a High Tier character if not better.
If People find ways around Arsene, if Base Joker continues to have these issues and can't adapt, it won't surprise me one bit if he falls all the way down near the bottom of Mid or Top of Low.