Code Geass Mafia: OVAH

[adumbrodeus]

Holding me responsible for what? Not hopping the lynch of two people I openly stated to think are town? We've had enough good lynches and you hop the dumbest null-tells and then you turn around and blame me for it?

Should've pushed Adum lynch harder.

Stop being an idiot.

D1 reads have no hard information to back them up, so they lack substance. Heck, even if this was later, you could still be wrong.


D1 lynch is a pure shot in the dark for probability's sake, and now town is down somewhere around 14% in terms of win ratio because you two just had to have your preferred targets.


You SHOULD know better.

lol @ adum trying to talk down to me by saying "I'd expect frozen to make this claim mistake" when he couldn't even tell the difference between a role and a character claim.

Clean up your ****ing act man.

Heh? Not talking down, it's just a mistake I could see most people in this game make, but not Kevin.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

D1 lynch is a pure shot in the dark

Who's being an idiot?

 

[adumbrodeus]

Who's being an idiot?

That's called REALITY, we TRY to lynch the scummiest person, but when you actually look at games statistically, D1 has a slightly lower then pure random success rate of lynching scum.

Barring a major scum slip (which rarely ever happens, and can accidentally be made by town) there's little hard information, which doesn't occur till you can connect actual alignments.



So yes, it is a shot in the dark. D1 lynch should happen for the sake of probability.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Still wrong. Plenty of scum has been lynched D1.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Confirmation bias ftw.


Of course it happens, the fact that in general it's got a lower rate of success then a completely random lynch tells the story.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

*facepalm*

 

[Overswarm]

You're both agreeing on the same thing.

Adumbrodeus:

Lynching day 1 can get scum. There are certain... "broad brushtstrokes" you can recognize as a scum tell. KevinM's accusation of Sworddancer is the best example from this game and could very well be correct. Gheb is experienced enough to know this. Through the games I've played, I've seen scum get caught D1 because someone catches something and just doesn't let go. You're not picking at random; you're looking for the over-arching aspects of playstyle and attacking that particular person. They're either scum or they're not, but it isn't 'random' in the sense that you have an X% chance of lynching someone because you have a reason to chase that person in the first place.

Gheb:

You know what adumbrodeus means. As much as I'd like to say "hey, we can catch scum D1!", it's not going to be possible more often than not. Generally only when the scum is obvious or just plain bad can you catch them. Adumbrodeus' statement of "we should have lynched someone" and subsequent support of it by saying "it's a shot in the dark, but it still improves our chances" is still correct at its core.

 

[KevinM]

Top 3 suspects going into tomorrow without night action bias yet.

Swords
Meta-Kirby
Adum

 

[Sephiroths Masamune]

Just because I was almost lynched, doesn't mean that you can avoid my question.

@KevinM: Why did you think I was scum? Why were you pushing my lynch so hard?

 

[Overswarm]

Top 3 suspects going into tomorrow without night action bias yet.

Swords
Meta-Kirby
Adum

I'm not sure how good of an idea posting a list like that is.

 

[adumbrodeus]

You're both agreeing on the same thing.

Adumbrodeus:

Lynching day 1 can get scum. There are certain... "broad brushtstrokes" you can recognize as a scum tell. KevinM's accusation of Sworddancer is the best example from this game and could very well be correct. Gheb is experienced enough to know this. Through the games I've played, I've seen scum get caught D1 because someone catches something and just doesn't let go. You're not picking at random; you're looking for the over-arching aspects of playstyle and attacking that particular person. They're either scum or they're not, but it isn't 'random' in the sense that you have an X% chance of lynching someone because you have a reason to chase that person in the first place.

Gheb:

You know what adumbrodeus means. As much as I'd like to say "hey, we can catch scum D1!", it's not going to be possible more often than not. Generally only when the scum is obvious or just plain bad can you catch them. Adumbrodeus' statement of "we should have lynched someone" and subsequent support of it by saying "it's a shot in the dark, but it still improves our chances" is still correct at its core.

Yes, you can, and scumtells still apply, but it's simply too soon to consider anything as really reliable. Remember, scum are informed minority, they have a massive information advantage day 1 (which obviously decreases, but never goes away), so all we can do is kill somebody and hope for the best.


That's why while we should TRY becoming married to any one of your targets (aka, I won't lynch anybody not on this list) is a bad idea.



Kevin, gheb, for all your talking about how people suck, why could either of you organize an effective lynch? It took me organizing an attempted lynch for A TARGET I DIDN'T FAVOR to get to l-1, and what's with trying to get an opposite wagon started last minute?

I haven't figured out whether it's incredible stubbornness or scummyness yet, but I will.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Top 3 suspects going into tomorrow without night action bias yet.

Swords
Meta-Kirby
Adum

OMGUS much Kevin?

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Adum, it'd be a lot easier if you could just accept that you might be wrong and I might be right. You dismiss that as an option right away which makes you look like scum to me because it seems like you have insider knowledge.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Adum, it'd be a lot easier if you could just accept that you might be wrong and I might be right. You dismiss that as an option right away which makes you look like scum to me because it seems like you have insider knowledge.

That a no-lynch is better then a lynch day 1 (even if it happens to be somebody that you don't directly suspect)? Excuse me for finding that... ridiculous.


As I said, pure numbers game, and I find it highly suspect that refuse to consider it as such.


Insider's knowledge? This isn't about any specific person, this is about optimal play, hence why I was willing to lynch Sephiroth's masamune who I still have a null read on. It doesn't take an insider to know that lynching day one is just a probability thing.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

So me taking a hard stance on somebody who's not the lynch makes me more suspicious than people sheeping the wagon or sitting on a fence the whole day?

Great logic.

 

[Overswarm]

Statistically speaking, adumbrodeus is right. It's more likely that we'll kill all scum if we lynch every day. This is obvious.

And no, not lynching someone who is town doesn't increase our chances at all. It lowers them if we have no lynch target. This is statistical fact, just filling you guys in.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

dead @ OS / Adum trying to teach me the basics of mafia.

 

[Overswarm]

I'm torn between lynching someone who didn't jump on one of the wagons or lynching someone (Vult) I found suspicious before.

 

[Overswarm]

dead @ OS / Adum trying to teach me the basics of mafia.

To be frank, it appeared as if you didn't understand them.

 

[adumbrodeus]

So me taking a hard stance on somebody who's not the lynch makes me more suspicious than people sheeping the wagon or sitting on a fence the whole day?

Great logic.

Yes, because owing the "questionable quality" of the rest of the town today, it was pretty obvious the hardlining on two alternative viable wagon possibilities last minute was most likely gonna prevent a lynch.


It would've probably ended up not even close if I hadn't lit a fire in everyone's ***es.



To be frank, you're either being scummy, or you have very little knowledge of probabilistic play for this game. I think you should consider it a compliment that I consider the former much more likely.

And no, not lynching someone who is town doesn't increase our chances at all. It lowers them if we have no lynch target. This is statistical fact, just filling you guys in.

Well that's just gambler's fallacy, of course it doesn't, only saying that lynching every day increases our overall odds at winning.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

@Gheb: Were you on yesterday? Also, do you not agree that a Day 1 mislynch is better than a Day 1 no lynch? If so, then why weren't you willing to compensate who you wanted lynched for who was probably going to get lynched (Vult or Seph) especially with the deadline so near?

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Because I absolutely want neither of them lynched.

 

[adumbrodeus]

@Gheb: Were you on yesterday? Also, do you not agree that a Day 1 possible mislynch is better than a Day 1 no lynch? If so, then why weren't you willing to compensate who you wanted lynched for who was probably going to get lynched (Vult or Seph) especially with the deadline so near?

Bolded word added.


Don't toss him a grapefruit, nobody knows whether it was a mislynch or not.



Unless you do....

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

Just checked the rules hoping to find the answer to why this twilight is so **** long.

Figured JF might have made all twilights a set length. Not the case. =/

OS and Adum need to stop treating mafia like a pure numbers game, because it isn't.

Lynching everyday looks beneficial from a numerical standpoint (assuming pretty much vanilla-ness across the board) but if you take into account possible PR's and their possible inflated rate of removal via lynching everyday, you can incidentally remove PRs that make the town far more likely to win just by virtue of being in the game and used properly than a simple behavioral paradigm.

I agree that trying to get an informed lynch in every day is a good idea, but throwing a hissy fit and trying to tell other people that they don't understand mafia because things didn't work out perfectly for you is just over-zealousness and impracticality at its finest.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

You know what I meant. I know that it is possible to hit scum Day 1.

Gheb, please answer just this question. Would you rather have a possible mislynch Day 1 or a no lynch?

 

[KevinM]

Adum it isn't OMGUS, its the way you've played. that makes me think you're either scum or worthless town. Thus I don't want you around late game.

Get over it.

Seph, your numerous seemingly opportunistic bandwagons coupled with the fact that you only started making any posts of substance after pressure was applied is a scummy way to play.

If you are town then I apologize but to me it was seemingly the right play to make especially since there was no way in hell I was leaning towards voting Vult.

Adum I wanted to keep around I no longer do.

MK didn't vote after saying possible suspects showing indecisiveness on who to place his vote, reason being he's trying to avoid suspicion and not hop on a bandwagon considering he's not been around very often. Classic scum tell.

Swords is still another suspect of mine.

No I don't think it's risky posting that OS, in fact I would say its beneficial to me.

 

[Sephiroths Masamune]

Seph, your numerous seemingly opportunistic bandwagons coupled with the fact that you only started making any posts of substance after pressure was applied is a scummy way to play.

Sorry can you be more specific?

 

[adumbrodeus]

Just checked the rules hoping to find the answer to why this twilight is so **** long.

Figured JF might have made all twilights a set length. Not the case. =/

OS and Adum need to stop treating mafia like a pure numbers game, because it isn't.

Lynching everyday looks beneficial from a numerical standpoint (assuming pretty much vanilla-ness across the board) but if you take into account possible PR's and their possible inflated rate of removal via lynching everyday, you can incidentally remove PRs that make the town far more likely to win just by virtue of being in the game and used properly than a simple behavioral paradigm.

I agree that trying to get an informed lynch in every day is a good idea, but throwing a hissy fit and trying to tell other people that they don't understand mafia because things didn't work out perfectly for you is just over-zealousness and impracticality at its finest.

Obviously it's not just a numbers game, but choosing to ignore the numbers is asking to lose, and playing by the numbers gives you a significant advantage.


It's too early to be sure of anyone's alignment, barring special information, besides your own of course.

Adum it isn't OMGUS, its the way you've played. that makes me think you're either scum or worthless town. Thus I don't want you around late game.

...

Adum I wanted to keep around I no longer do.

I just hit the list now, you've been on mine for a while.

Regardless of your alignment you're too stubborn for your strong personality, and we'll end up with exactly the same problem as we just had here.



I like your scum suspects for the most part, but you just guaranteed us a no lynch, which was EXTREMELY anti-town.


I'm positive you already noticed we've got a very sheep-like town population for the most part, so you had to know that pushing an alternative bandwagon at the 11th hour was aking for trouble.

 

[KevinM]

Obviously it's not just a numbers game, but choosing to ignore the numbers is asking to lose, and playing by the numbers gives you a significant advantage.


It's too early to be sure of anyone's alignment, barring special information, besides your own of course.





I just hit the list now, you've been on mine for a while.

Regardless of your alignment you're too stubborn for your strong personality, and we'll end up with exactly the same problem as we just had here.



I like your scum suspects for the most part, but you just guaranteed us a no lynch, which was EXTREMELY anti-town.


I'm positive you already noticed we've got a very sheep-like town population for the most part, so you had to know that pushing an alternative bandwagon at the 11th hour was aking for trouble.

If Swords wasn't going to be pushed, (which it wasn't), then I am going to vote for the only other candidate I had a scum vibe on.

Just lynching for the sake of lynching is something I don't do, I lynch in two pertinent ways: Do I think he's scum, Do I think he will be useful in a LYLO/MYLO game, as in do I want him around when the pressure is on.

"It's too early to be sure of anyone's alignment, barring special information, besides your own of course. "

Would you like me to link you to games in which we have lynched scum D1 and I for one DEFINITELY pushed based on the person being scum.

This game as you grow to see connections isn't all about just "lucky guesses and being kinda sure" it's being 100 percent that you've seen the person's alignment based on their play.

I don't like how you seemingly are discounting a lot of D1 in your posts but you at first said "I hold you and Gheb responsible for this"

Had we gone with Vult and he flipped town would you have simply said "Ho Hum D1?"

 

[adumbrodeus]

Just lynching for the sake of lynching is something I don't do, I lynch in two pertinent ways: Do I think he's scum, Do I think he will be useful in a LYLO/MYLO game, as in do I want him around when the pressure is on.

I agree with your subsequent reasonings, but not taking advantage of the maximium number of random at worst lynches is basically GIVING scum extra win rate, why would you do that?

Would you like me to link you to games in which we have lynched scum D1 and I for one DEFINITELY pushed based on the person being scum.

I'm not saying you CAN'T, I'm saying that getting a lynch is more important then who you believe to be scum.

Sure, it happens, but at a slightly lower rate then pure randomness.

This game as you grow to see connections isn't all about just "lucky guesses and being kinda sure" it's being 100 percent that you've seen the person's alignment based on their play.

For the most part, but it's also about numbers, especially when you have very limited information.

You get closer to 100% sure the more information builds up, but you're never completely sure.

Discounting the numbers completely is a sure way to lose.

I don't like how you seemingly are discounting a lot of D1 in your posts but you at first said "I hold you and Gheb responsible for this"

Had we gone with Vult and he flipped town would you have simply said "Ho Hum D1?"

Ah, but that would give us concrete information that could've been used to build connection in twilight and day 2, in other words, we could do something useful with it.


Day one's usefulness isn't so much in that scumhunting actually is reliable at getting the right lynch that day, it's that it helps you find scum when put in the context of stuff you find out later.

 

[KevinM]

Who says I am completely discounting numbers, you're really reaching to paint Seph's lynch in a bad light.

Also I don't understand your response to how you're flippant about D1 but seemingly seem confident in your lynch of Vult.

What concrete information does it give us?

His role?

Because Seph had connections to multiple other players as well.

I feel you're reaching at this point and should stop trying to paint what I'm doing in some scummy light that doesn't exist.

It's a lynch, if you want me to take 100 percent blame for it, go for it. I pushed the lynch on whom I believed was scum rather then the people I didn't.

Better get your pitchforks out.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Who says I am completely discounting numbers, you're really reaching to paint Seph's lynch in a bad light.

*sigh*

My point was, that you set it up, wouldn't budge even extremely late... and then pretty much abandoned it, in the crucial period where the result was to split the vote, and that result was pretty obvious.

I wouldn't have even minded if you attempted to proactively push for the lynch, but you didn't.

Also I don't understand your response to how you're flippant about D1 but seemingly seem confident in your lynch of Vult.

As confident as I could be day 1, notice how I

What concrete information does it give us?

His role?

That, but more information on his connections, especially the wagon hoppers, because I guarantee you, any day 1 mislynch has some scum on board.

Plus the 20-30% aprox. chance (depending on the set-up) that we hit scum.

Because Seph had connections to multiple other players as well.

I feel you're reaching at this point and should stop trying to paint what I'm doing in some scummy light that doesn't exist.

We'll see.

I'm not unconvinced that you couldn't just simply be that guy who hurts town by being completely unwilling to play the odds, but we'll see. I'll wait on the NK and leave it at that.


But, it WAS anti-town.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Idc I will not for somebody I'm convinced to be town.

 

[adumbrodeus]

You know what, everybody in this thread needs to look at these:


A thread talking about exactly this.


Data on wins based on varying conditions, note the win rate on a no lynch for day 1



Granted, the data is for controlled conditions different then ours, but seriously... 83.33 scum win rate for D1 no lynch!

The only way you could do worse was by lynching the cop day 1, and the win rate when lynching a vanilla townie was SIGNIFIGANTLY better.



Seriously, that's all that needs to be said, anyone who says that giving up a lynch day one is just WRONG, and when we most likely lose this game, I'll tell you exactly that. Heck, I'm considering replacing out of this game, because at this point, because the game is now so ridiculously stacked against us, it might just be pointless to play out, ESPECIALLY if you guys aren't willing to take numbers into consideration at all.



This game is too heavy on strong personalities (with everyone else being sheepish) for having us 4 (me, gheb, OS, and Kevin) to be pulling in opposite directions on the 11th hour.

 

[DtJ Jungle]

vote count

blue yoshi (1) - rockin
sworddancer. (1) exn
vult redux (4) - blue yoshi, Sephiroths Masamune, Overswarm, Dark_ermac
dark_ermac (1) - gheb_01
sephiroths masamune (7) - kevinm, summonerau, Frozenflame751, sworddancer, -rei-, Vult Redux,, adumbrodeus

not voting (1) - meta-kirby

deadline is last second of 5/23 est
with 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch


The Day ends in a No Lynch!

Night Time has started. Night will end the last second of 5/26 EST

 

[DtJ Jungle]

Night 1 Ends

Euphemia li Britannia (Vult Redux), Vanilla Townie, has died.

Clovis la Britannia (Frozenflame751), Vanilla Townie, has died.

DAY 2 BEGINS

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch!
Deadline is the last second of 6/6 EST!

 

[Sephiroths Masamune]

Who was on my wagon? I think most if not all of the mafia were on it, because no mafia member would give up the chance to hammer a townie without consiquence.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Vote Blue Yoshi

Yall need to fix your scumdars big time.

 

[Blue Yoshi]

Vote: Gheb

Why did you not vote at all at the end of day 1?

And Jungle, can we get a vote count for what the final vote count was at the end of day 1?

 

[Blue Yoshi]

Rephrasing question to Gheb:

Why did you not change your vote to a person who was close to being lynched? Instead, you kept it on someone (where you were the only person voting).