Castlevania Mafia - Game Over! Mafia and Traitor win!!!

[Swiss]

I like how Incom guessed Air visited Smar. Makes me think EP is his buddy.

 

[Swiss]

I'm not cop. I'm Charlotte Aulin, VT

Man people keep saying things like this to me.

Also Swiss your claim doesn't sit right with me. If you can see who targeted a dead body then you know if someone targeted Smar or not which I assume someone did? Are you saying that Air did? And if so why didn't you push for his lynch earlier over glg?

I didn't answer the last bit.

I knew he'd have a buddy, I was certain GLG (well, Das) was scum. GLG wasn't too scummy - but it didn't stop me lynching him purely for Das' actions. >> That'd be a hardcore bus.

Plus before the mass claim I didn't know which to lynch. I'd planned to get one at L-1 and tell them to claim. VT = lynched. Good thing I didn't, as that could have killed an actual VT, got me lynched the next day, and endgamed us. I didn't consider a mafia framer before - but it's the only explanation. It has to be correct.

As for which of these two are scummier I ask everyone (especially you) to do a re-read bearing in mind the specific knowledge that
1) There is a mafia roleblocker, so DH's lynch D1 was better to be postponed, so long as a D1 mislynch could still be achieved.
2) One of them knew the other had been framed, and would need to cast doubt on them for when mass claims came. The only thing working in EP's favour is that he's an experienced player (I think) and as scum should have had the brains to claim tracker/watcher - some weak PR, explaining his being there, and getting the other lynched. How whichever of them is scum didn't do this is beyond me.

 

[Swiss]

X1 is town. Zen is probably town. GLG is scum, incom maybe.

Think a scum lies in EP/Air, only one though - think they shanked Smarg and probably took our tricky indie Cello off our hands too. Both've been a bit dodge from my re-read.

This is what got me roleblocked. I didn't know how hard I should crumb my results, clearly I did it too hard.


Also, all of what I now suspect lines up with me previous suspicions. I like that, we've got this. Probably.

 

[Xivii]

Ok wow Swiss nice. I believe what you're saying. There's no way you would make all this up and put yourself in the spot light. And that crumb is legit.

The only mafia framer I know is mafia puppet master which I once had. They can make someone else seen targeting the person mafia kills. But yeah it wouldn't make sense two mafia would target the same person. But also doesn't make sense that if they could puppet someone why they would also be seen targeting someone. I'll have to look up those other roles you said to see if one would make sense with this.

Also Swiss could you target someone that isn't dead and get the results if they were NKed the same night?

Air and EP, do both of you stand by being VT?

 

[Xivii]

Also Air when you get back why did you think EP was scum for claiming VT, but you didn't make this same observation when Incom claimed VT?

 

[Swiss]

I tried guessing the scum kill but guessed wrong N1 (guessed you, FYI). After that I've had bodies to work off. I can ask Gheb (I semi asked him but he never answered before), but considering that unless we lynch the roleblocker toDay I'm effectively VT, it doesn't hugely matter.

Would you prefer to lynch the 'framer' or the roleblocker toDay?


I see the role as a 'scum visits and leaves fingerprints of another on them'. Planting prints of two townies is just broken.

 

[Xivii]

I see. That would make sense.

And it depends on the responces from Air and EP and if I can pick anything out from reviewing them both. If you're sure there is a role blocker then it would have to be Incom. As said, for EP and Air to both be scum, 1 a role blocker, just wouldn't fit because it would be a waste to block the person you're killing. And since I believe you that just leaves Incom to be a blocker. If we can't determine with certainty which out of Air and EP is scum then I think it would be better to lynch incom. And since he is more sure fire for being a blocker that could give us another day where as if we are still 50/50 on which of EP and Air could be a framer, mislynching would most likely end the game. But now that I think about it, EP has been on Incom throughout the whole game. I think it's a greater possibility that Air and Incom are scumbuddies rather than EP and Incom. I just don't see EP as tunneling a scumbuddy throughout the whole game.

I want to hear from everyone though so no body vote until Air us back as he proposed.

 

[Xivii]

is *

 

[EdreesesPieces]

Okay after reading and catching up I am mostly believing Swiss' claim. The swiss crumb that either Air or Myself having to die is legit if swiss saw us both visit smarg... but swiss do you have any crumbs after n1 but before n2 that shows air and I visited smarg? It is believable u are a PR cuz only 2 prs for town seems wayy too unbalanced if there are 2 scum with a scum role blocker as swiss claims. the other possibility is that swiss is lying and was not role blocked which in case only 2 prs for town is more beliavable if the 2 mafia are just goons who nk. *However bcuz Swiss claim seems believable given these circumstances ill put aside this possibility, but swiss u gotta at least show one crumb from d2 that shows u saw us visit smarg. a player as experieneced as u isnt gonna risk being night killed and having such valuable info wasted for town. *the crumb you cited is from d3 but i need one from d2 to be fully convinced.*

Saying you are right then That would mean Air and incom are the scum team but during my re reads Im gettig air as scum reads and incom as town reads. *Ill explain and show why unfortunately im not at home now and im posting from iphone so i cant post my almost done re reads till tonight when I get in front lf a computer. *

 

[EdreesesPieces]

Sorry IS that crumb from d2 or d3? i cannot properly browse right now my gf is killing me for even being on my phone right now

 

[Swiss]

That crumb is from D3. I examined Smarg N2.

N1 there was no-one to examine.

 

[Life]

I like how Incom guessed Air visited Smar. Makes me think EP is his buddy.

This post (and the line of logic it sums up) is bad and you should feel bad.

1. Two people visited the corpse and there are four players besides myself in this game. Three if we don't count Swiss, since you're the one handing out this info. Two if we don't count Zen, who is town according to general opinion. I had a 100% chance, therefore, of guessing one of the two you got, and a 50% chance of either clearing myself or getting myself lynched, based on info that, assuming I'm town, I could not know, or assuming I'm scum, I could win the game outright on. (Also, I had assumed that only one person would/could visit the corpse. /shrug.)

2. If you even read my post, I based my answer on who Smarg was chasing. Smarg didn't go after EP (or if he did, I missed it in the 4-5ish rereads I've done since the game began), therefore I didn't suspect EP would be the one who did the dirty work. You find it suspicious that I give a logical backing for who to lynch that doesn't line up with yours?

3. You say that EP and I are the scum team. So are you saying EP has basically spent almost the entire game trying to bus me and failed?

4. Town has very few PRs in this game + 7:4 town-to-antitown ratio = scum must have a framer? I don't follow as that seems too powerful for scum, especially given that they have a roleblocker.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
For the record, while I don't like Swiss' logic in calling me scum, I can agree to lynching EP (though I wouldn't rush to it, first in case Air does something stupid, and second because I want EP to elaborate on his last post). Then it's all up to me and Air to expose each other as scum.

So lemme get this straight:

Zen is town.
Swiss is likely town. If this is some kind of clever scum fake claim, kudos on your win.
Process of elimination puts scum between me, Air, and EP.

Therefore, Air/EP is the most likely scum team from my perspective...

Following the same line of logic, Air thinks EP and I are the scum team and EP thinks Air and I are the scum team (though the latter gets town reads from me for some reason)...

Zen (as I understand it) wants me lynched toDay theorizing that I am the roleblocker (hey Zen: you do realize that even if I were scum roleblocker and got lynched, the other scum can still NK Swiss and leave town in the dark regardless?) and thinks Air is more likely than EP to be the second scum...

Swiss thinks EP is scum and Air is being framed, and uses process of elimination to implicate me.

Therefore, the lynch order, as it stands right now, is EP (me/Air/Swiss have enough votes to make that happen), then myself and Air (in which order I'm not sure), then Swiss, then Zen.

Is that correct?

Anywho, tomorrow is set to be quite interesting.

 

[EdreesesPieces]

Incom, yesterDay I was your strongest/second strongest scum candidate, then earlier today when I said I got a town read on you you suddenly changed your mind that I am town. Now that it looks like a strong wagon is forming on me suddenly you change your mind AGAIN that I'm scum? Now it looks like you are taking the easiest route to a lynch no matter who it is. I understand if the cirumstances changed because of Swiss' claim, but to be convinced that easily despite you changing your mind about me is realllly fickle. If we lose this game and ur town I hope you learn to stick with a read that you've made a little bit longer.

Anyway here's the analysis of my d2-and d3 re reads and why I Air is the scum.

Originally I was for Swiss because he kept avoiding Zen's question but his answer today has kind of left me clueless on who to vote for. Although he's not completely cleared. I feel X1 might be scum, don't like his play too much.

Thought Swiss was scum d1 as I pointed out earlier. Changes his mind rather quicky, and kind of "throws" his current suspicions onto X1 because he doesn't like his play. Doesn't really explain why til much later in the game when asked why he changed his mind:

X1 D1 I didn't like because he just seemed to follow Swiss and to me didn't offer much. But after D1 he seemed to come into his own, imo.

Decided that he likes X1 only after it becomes well accepted that X1's play is town, noted by a lot of players (esp Cello)

You possibly being scum relates to my thinking of Zen being possible scum.

Zen - I'm just looking for things suspicious. Rereading it it just stood out to me.

I'm not confident enough on it to place any vote on either of you two though. Just bringing my thoughts to the discussion.

Thought Zen was scum but never acted on it. No vote, no case, nothing. May be that he didn't get anyone to agree so he started to back down.

Vote: Solid
for all the reasons you've already posted.

Agreed on the solid case just because he agreed with all of cellos points. Strong buddying behavior. I asked him what points, and got this response:

Not really a specific reason, his big post on page 30 pointed out things about Solid that I hadn't seen before and made think of him as scum.

Not a real answer, doesn't explain why he agrees with Cello even when I asked him why he agrees. Just looks like buddying to get a lynch to me.

Scum:
Swiss
EP
Incom

Town
Everyone else

EP is more opinion based, no real reasoning, just instinct. Incom has had multiple scummy actions iirc, and swiss appears to be rushing this day and looking for a quick lynch.

A bit of summary - players that Air thought was scum at some point in this game

-Swiss
-DH
-Incom
-EP
-Zen
-X1
-Solid

Players Air said weren't scum/ were town at some point in the game:

-Swiss
-DH
-Incom
-Zen
-X1
-GLG/BSL
-Solid

Notice anything? Air hasn't made a real firm stance ALL game long.Air you have been playing safe, asking small questions, voting only for players already with multiple votes (See Solid for one), and not sticking his neck out to actually people he might think are scum (Zen, Incom, and Swiss at various points in the game, see above quotes) None of his stances have lasted more than even half a day, the one exception I see is his stance that I am scum, the only one that stuck. After thinking Swiss initially scum, he changed his mind. After thikning X1 scum, he changes his mind. After thinking Incom was scum, he changes his mind without really explaining it. The only time he didn't change his mind is when the lynches went through (Solid). It looks to me that all game long Air is taking the easiest way to coast, and didn't make a real case on anybody all game long. Now him and whoever is scumbuddy are riding that safe play til the end, on a mislynch on me.

My analysis of late d3 is where my incom town reads are. Which is why I'm starting to not be sure whether Swiss is telling the truth or not. From my perspective, if Swiss is telling the truth then Air and Incom are scum, but it just doesn't compute to me because Incom seems really town to me, and I"ll post my results of why (its based mostly on d3) when I get more time later. I feel air to be scum (without or without Swiss' claim), but honestly don't know between Incom and Swiss, still struggling to weigh Swiss' believable claim vs some very apparant town reads on Incom. More on this later when I finsish those reads.

 

[Xivii]

Yeah Incom I realize that. Scum would pretty much be forced to kill Swiss if he is telling the truth. That wasn't really the point though. I'm simply speculating that EP and and Air aren't scumbuddies and that one of them must be scum and if Swiss is telling the truth then you must be scum. Swiss could be lying, but if he was scum that would mean the 3 town that are left in this game would be VT which seems way too buffed to me.

 

[Xivii]

EP I disagree with you and Swiss on Incoms late D3 play. It looks more to me like Scum Incom not wanting to make that open of a move, hammering someone who he thought was really townie (as he wouldn't know glg was actually a traitor). Yet he found him scummy enough to vote for him before. But not to hammer. And notice how decided to vote for him again after glg had already been lynched. And the fact that he put him at L-1 and told people not to hammer makes me think he wanted to lynch glg but

 

[Xivii]

not be responsible for it.

(should be at the end of the last post. Sorry PSPnet).

 

[Swiss]

EP, Air, Incom, Zen.

One or two scum? Why?

 

[Xivii]

Hm there could just be 1 since Cello would have been taken out the game if he succeded. But I'm not sure if a traitor count towards scum in terms of out numbering?

 

[Life]

Zen: Quicklynch logic. It's been a point repeated a couple times throughout the game. The longer it takes us to lynch scum, the more time we have to discuss our plans going forward and the more time the lynchee has to try to clear himself (we haven't lynched a single scum all game other than GLG). I don't like to lynch people long before the deadline, and did intend to hammer GLG once the deadline drew nearer (hence the vote). I just got beaten to the punch.

EP: Every time I switch on something, I try to back it up logically. A lot of my original scum read on you was based on the fact that you were tunneling me pretty much the whole game without going after others much. When you admitted as much, I became "more comfortable with" you (though went out of my way to not call you definite town) since your play began to improve. Then Swiss roleclaimed.

Air: post more please.

Swiss: I think I touched on this already. On one hand, having only one mafia (plus a traitor and an indy) would be really strange (one-man QT ftw?). On the other hand, 7v4 seems kinda imbalanced given that town has three power roles, two being mason and bodyguard (both fragile) and the third being deceivable, AND given that mafia would have a roleblocker. Ultimately, neither scenario seems to make for a good game of Mafia... I'm not well-equipped to answer this question. See what you said at 1:50 yesterday (post editor doesn't have numbers and I need to get off the comp) though.

Also, what are those "quirks" you mentioned about your role? Since you're most likely either dead or useless toMorrow, it can't hurt to tell us. Or did I miss this.

 

[EdreesesPieces]

Air already announced V/LA status and said he can't post til Monday

Also, you do explain your logic of why you change your mind, and like I said, I can see why you changed your mind...I'm actually not making this as a "you are scum" remark, its just advice in the future that you should try to find reads that aren't that easily influenced by other players...I honestly think you ARE convinced that easily from reading how you explained your reactions, which is why I mentioned it.

 

[Swiss]

EP, Air, Incom, Zen.

One or two scum? Why?

10chararaaar

 

[EdreesesPieces]

EP I disagree with you and Swiss on Incoms late D3 play. It looks more to me like Scum Incom not wanting to make that open of a move, hammering someone who he thought was really townie (as he wouldn't know glg was actually a traitor). Yet he found him scummy enough to vote for him before. But not to hammer. And notice how decided to vote for him again after glg had already been lynched. And the fact that he put him at L-1 and told people not to hammer makes me think he wanted to lynch glg but

He posted that he would be willing to hammer if it wasn't needed, just that he wanted us to squeeze out as much of the day as possible before he had to hammer. He was open about the fact that he was hesitant to hammer, rather than lurking or simply saying he was unsure of GLG. I don't think scum would be that clear and open about it, they'd be more nervous admitting they were nervous to hammer. Just made me look at incom differently, ie, i've been looking at him as scum but he was really town playing nervous/unable to make bold decisions, and I read it as scummy through the game.

 

[Xivii]

Incom more time does not always = better for town. More time for town also means more time for scum. A town member may be able to change peoples minds but so can scum. We clearly weren't going to get more out of the day so there wasn't much need to keep it going. That only increases the chance of the lynch not happening. I know because I used that same tactic as scum in pikmafia and nearly got scum an extra day.

 

[Xivii]

Also incom I'm not sure on the play yet. I still need to review when I'm on a CPU.

 

[Airgemini]

Swiss is lying about his claim.
I don't have any power roles making it impossible for me to visit Smarg like Swiss claims I did.

Both EP and Swiss are lying about their claims.

 

[Swiss]

Wow.

Is this kid even reading the thread?

Really makes me want to think he's scum.

 

[Airgemini]

Also, I find it weird that EP didn't deny (unless I missed it) that he visited Smarg if he's just a vanilla townie. That's not possible.

 

[EdreesesPieces]

Also, I find it weird that EP didn't deny (unless I missed it) that he visited Smarg if he's just a vanilla townie. That's not possible.

Yes you did miss, it because you are likely skimming. See below:

Saying you are right then That would mean Air and incom are the scum team but during my re reads Im gettig air as scum reads and incom as town reads. *Ill explain and show why unfortunately im not at home now and im posting from iphone so i cant post my almost done re reads till tonight when I get in front lf a computer. *

Yeah sure I didn't literally spell out "no I didn't visit smar' but come on I've explained why it's not me, by showing why you are more likely to be scum, and also by telling Swiss I believe his claim is most likely the truth - by doing this I've acknowledged the possibility of a scum framer type role, and that's why I'm not so outraged that Swiss may have seen me despite the fact that I didn't visit Smar. Out of all the things I said about you, you pick this as the reason why I"m scum? Stop skimming, read the thread, and actually play mafia please.

 

[EdreesesPieces]

Also incom I'm not sure on the play yet. I still need to review when I'm on a CPU.

The play is air. Zen, Swiss please re read the thread real closely before you make your choice.

 

[Swiss]

@ mod - for the purposes of a majority mafioso vote and rule, does the traitor count towards this?

Conducting full re-read.

Air I suggest you do the same, and at least contribute something which shows you've read the thread.

Explain why or why not you believe my claim. If you believe my claim, explain why EP is scum.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

@ mod - for the purposes of a majority mafioso vote and rule, does the traitor count towards this?

I'm sorry, I have no idea what you mean.

 

[Swiss]

Yes, I think you're most likely Swiss' partner. For now. I'm still waiting on everyone else's claims. If there's some kind of weird thing going on with the claims were it's impossible for there to be two vanilla townies then I'll know that you're lying. And place a vote on you.

Air explain this.

If you're town you are single handedly destroying our chances of winning this game. We are almost certainly in LyLo and it is accepted fact that either you or EP is scum.

The more I read, the more I see EP just playing an above average game as scum. But then you come out, skim, throw accusations around with no reasoning and make posts like that ^ which, bearing in in the claim I've made and what we now know be true, makes you look like an incredibly short sighted scum.


I especially want to hear Incom's thoughts.

 

[Swiss]

I'm sorry, I have no idea what you mean.

Say we went into toMorrow with 4 players alive (scum, traitor and two VT's) would we be endgamed overNight, or go into the new day?

Ugh - does that make sense?

 

[Life]

Swiss: I'd assume it does.

1 scum
1 traitor
1 VT (the second gets NK'd)

Traitor can easily target the VT since he knows who the scum is, and the scum can simply jump on the chance to win the game outright right there.

Unless the last scum accidentally NKs the traitor, in which case town can still win.

So we wouldn't be technically endgamed right there unless mafia NKs a VT.

Correct?

 

[Life]

Oh, and Swiss: you wanted my thoughts on Air?

EP+Air is the most likely scum team from my perspective--assuming I'm town no other scenario is possible provided that your claim isn't fake and that Zen is town. (I'm looking into the possibility of being wrong on one of those counts, as this is probably-Lylo, but it doesn't seem likely.) I don't think a deceiver is likely as you are the only town PR that can't kill itself (mason/bodyguard).

Zen: I had that discussion with X1 already, lemme dig it up...

 

[Swiss]

We've already lynched the traitor, I just want to know so I can know for sure if there are one or two scum remaining.

Incom, do you think one or two scum? Just give me an answer.

 

[Airgemini]

In that post at the time not everyone's claims were revealed so if someone claimed something that made it impossible for there to be multiple vanilla townies then I would vote him.

And yeah, that last post of mine was before I read everything else because I right when I saw your (swiss) post I felt the need to respond to it immediately because I knew if was false (before reading after that post). Fault on my part.

 

[Swiss]

Ninja'd.

Why would both be seen visiting the body?

 

[EdreesesPieces]

I agree with Incom, I'm fairly certain that this is how it'd work. But would like to see confirmation from mod as well.

And mod, when is the deadline? I don't see it posted anywhere.

 

[Life]

For Zen:

InCom: Would you agree that time is mutually beneficial for town and scum? please explain why either way

IMO, time is better for town than it is for scum. (Math time!)

Hypothetical scenario:
48hour phases.
Town can communicate 50% of the time. Scum can communicate 100% of the time due to the QT (if I'm understanding the rules correctly).

Another hypothetical scenario:
72hour Day phase, 48hour Night phase.
Town can communicate 60% of the time. Scum still gets to communicate 100% of the time.

One more for the road:
90hour Day phase, 10hour Night phase.
Town can communicate 90% of the time. Scum still gets to communicate 100% of the time.

tl;dr version: The shorter the Day relative to the Night, the more disproportionately influential the scum QT is. Therefore, long Days and short Nights are good for town, and short Days and long Nights better for scum.

(Somebody correct me if my math or understanding of the rules is wrong.)

@InCom: I was talking considerably more that Day are longer gives both town more time to talk. and also more time for scum to confuse town

@X1: you have a point I guess.

Think I could have argued that further but saw no point, unless I don't recall what I was thinking correctly.

Swiss: Upon further reflection, probably two scum. One scum alone versus ten others would probably tip them off to both the indy and the traitor (as well as being almost identical to a serial killer), whereas with two scum they'd probably assume one or the other but not both (as I said, 7v4 is strange balance).