BBR Game: Final Fantasy 6 Mafia

[adumbrodeus]

One time use abilities, aka pointless at the moment, I honestly just explained the mechanics of what I already said.


I got challenged to explain, I feel like there's not much of a point in not explaining cause scamp's already dead, and I revealed nothing special that is legitimately useful anymore. As far as the current game is concerned, it's just a defense of my actions, I don't see how it makes anymore relevant more vulnerable (and if there is a third power role, I don't mind absorbing for them).

 

[Marc]

Except I'm confused. Who did you check and what was the alignment? Whose name will be revealed upon your death?

In your case claiming makes a little more sense, but I'm still not too happy about it.

 

[Omni]

Alignment checks is the only proof of a player being town/mafia. (cop roles, tho Dastrn is dead, hm...)
Flavour (character name) checks does not guarantee said character being town/mafia.

If you were to investigate someone and only find out their name, that does not tell you their alignment. Unless you looked up both their name and alignment at the same time.

Whatever. I don't understand your play at all this game, adumbrodeus. I feel like everytime you talk it's about something that deters us from actually scumhunting and this isn't an exception. Hopefully scum does us a favor and offs you.

-----

Someone needs to be lynched tonight. My vote is still on Reflex. Do I like it? Hrm. I don't dislike it.

Reflex, Chibo and Adumbrodeus need to be out of my hair at lylo. Followed by Hilt. I don't think I'm missing anyone.

Marc, you haven't given me the impression that I can trust you. Not that you've done anything suspicious, but your behavior doesn't make me comfortable. What's up?

Shaya, you blend in well.

@Reflex: Any reason why we should let you live? I understand you've been inactive for personal reasons, but that doesn't take away from the fact that you've been pretty useless up to this point. There's absolutely 0 information about you because you make 0 contributions to the game making you the perfect coaster. I really don't see you being useful in anyway since you haven't been able to keep up with the game nor comment on what has taken place. /suicideifucanplz

 

[adumbrodeus]

As I said, Scamp, you know Cyan, our roleblocker that had the misfortune of getting killed last night.


Hence why I revealed that Cyan was town not "Scamp is town". I my check revealed his alignement and name, and once I died, his name would be revealed, but not his alignment, so I tossed the fact that Cyan is town right before I thought I was gonna get offed so we'd have some help.



Point is, at this point it's all pointless cause them killing him renders this a little meaningless beyond explaining why I'm reacting differently then then now.

 

[CT Chia]

kupo!

just read first couple pages of day 3

major wtf @ bardull. look at the coloring, look at the wording, its written in the 3rd person, so obvious OS wrote it. bardull won't drop the topic either. only scum would try to beat a dead horse topic like this. ontop of all this I didn't like his day 2 posts. very sure of this.

vote bardull

 

[adumbrodeus]

Alignment checks is the only proof of a player being town/mafia. (cop roles, tho Dastrn is dead, hm...)
Flavour (character name) checks does not guarantee said character being town/mafia.

If you were to investigate someone and only find out their name, that does not tell you their alignment. Unless you looked up both their name and alignment at the same time.

You misunderstand, I was saying my check got both, I revealed flavor and alignment so when flavor got connected to name, you'd get alignment.

Whatever. I don't understand your play at all this game, adumbrodeus. I feel like everytime you talk it's about something that deters us from actually scumhunting and this isn't an exception. Hopefully scum does us a favor and offs you.

Shaya challenged me, I think I have a right to explain my play since the implication is presumably that I'm scum.


I find it odd that you're saying "scum offs me", scum wouldn't off me if I'm scum, so you think I'm town... yet you want me gone.

If you want my actions, in general my actions have been aimed at probabilistic play, and drawing what I can from that.

Reflex, Chibo and Adumbrodeus need to be out of my hair at lylo. Followed by Hilt. I don't think I'm missing anyone.

...

Look, I don't care how much you dislike his play, a confirmed town is a concrete advantage, last thing you want is to do mafia a favor and get him removed early (they're probably do it anyway).

Yeah, doesn't strike me as odd at all...

 

[Omni]

your "i find this odd" pokes aren't worth anything. if u find me suspicious, call me out and stop tear dropping it an attempt to find people who agree with it. can you try committing to suspicions without having to rely heavily on numbers/flavor/roles/probablymaybes?

i hope scum offs you because i don't want you in lylo. of course that doesn't take away the fact that you, yourself, could be scum. are you implying that i'm stupid enough to clear you as town? stop attempting to focus on the literal sense of my message and realize my main point is that i don't want you around in lylo PERIOD.

a confirmed townie who contributes nothing is still deadweight. scum can use deadweight to their advantage in a numerous amount of ways. obviously, i haven't suggested that we lynch Chibo (since i've left the Chibo wagon after lastNight's actions), but the fact still remains that i don't want him around in lylo.

do you understand what i mean when i say i don't want people around in lylo?

it means i want people who are active, who contribute, who have past records and connections because they have been posting their thoughts in a manner that leads to certain conclusions. information. it makes it 10x easier to handle lylo when u dont have a bunch of stragglers, inactives, coasters, useless people, or players still harping about roles/flavor/skills/etc. regardless of alignment they are liabilities and liabilities are not something i want when determining who to lynch in the lylo situation.

*lylo - lynch or lose. the day when town MUST lynch Mafia or the game will end with a Mafia victory. definition for people who don't know.

 

[adumbrodeus]

your "i find this odd" pokes aren't worth anything. if u find me suspicious, call me out and stop tear dropping it an attempt to find people who agree with it. can you try committing to suspicions without having to rely heavily on numbers/flavor/roles/probablymaybes?

I have committed to finding you suspicious... I've said it multiple times.

i hope scum offs you because i don't want you in lylo. of course that doesn't take away the fact that you, yourself, could be scum. are you implying that i'm stupid enough to clear you as town? stop attempting to focus on the literal sense of my message and realize my main point is that i don't want you around in lylo PERIOD.

I just find your phrasing odd, and considering that you already said you don't want a confirmed town around... strikes me as weird, possibly a Freudian slip. Nothing solid, but worth commenting on.

a confirmed townie who contributes nothing is still deadweight. scum can use deadweight to their advantage in a numerous amount of ways. obviously, i haven't suggested that we lynch Chibo (since i've left the Chibo wagon after lastNight's actions), but the fact still remains that i don't want him around in lylo.

do you understand what i mean when i say i don't want people around in lylo?

it means i want people who are active, who contribute, who have past records and connections because they have been posting their thoughts in a manner that leads to certain conclusions. information. it makes it 10x easier to handle lylo when u dont have a bunch of stragglers, inactives, coasters, useless people, or players still harping about roles/flavor/skills/etc. regardless of alignment they are liabilities and liabilities are not something i want when determining who to lynch in the lylo situation.

Taking a dead-weight for a numerical is quite frankly, well worth it, lynch or lose situation means only 1 more town then mafia, and from a numerical prospective you need those odds as good as possible.


Yea, it's nice to have all active players who know the game well in lynch or lose, but at that point, pushing lynch chance from 60% to 70% is a bigger issue.

 

[BarDulL]

Posting in a Mafia game is different from posting oneliners in social threads etc though, because you have to carefully read a lot and make a good contribution.



Town Mason is a role. You claimed it. I'm not sure what you want me to elaborate on, but so far this game's setup seems fairly typical, which leads me to assume we don't want to help Mafia out in picking a target because we might have more tricks up our sleeve. I do not know what we have left, nor do I want to, but I do know that anyone claiming unless they're dangerously close to a lynch is bad for Town.

What you are saying is that having two Town Masonries is odd (I agree) and from your point of view Chibo is Mafia or not cleared at the very least. Correct? Even so, outright claiming wasn't the best way to go about it, nor was voting me for expressing my opinion on it.

I want you to elaborate on why a Mason can not "be a power role" as well. Just because you can talk to someone outside of the thread doesn't mean they can't also be a "power role," does it?

Also, I do not think it is odd that there are two full town masonries. I think it is possible that there are two full town masonries. It is also possible that, based on my interpretation, Chibo is not Town. Because there is room for error, I felt it would have been anti-town to let the consensus become, unquestionably, "Chibo must be Town."

 

[BarDulL]

kupo!

just read first couple pages of day 3

major wtf @ bardull. look at the coloring, look at the wording, its written in the 3rd person, so obvious OS wrote it. bardull won't drop the topic either. only scum would try to beat a dead horse topic like this. ontop of all this I didn't like his day 2 posts. very sure of this.

vote bardull

I can not begin to explain how terrible you have been playing this game. This is just another reason on top of many as to why I think my interpretation is likely to be the correct one.

 

[Omni]

*remembers why ignored adumbrodeus*

bardull, who's the play for the day

 

[Marc]

Adumbrodeus' claim is fairly weak. From what I gather he could check a player's name + alignment once over the course of the game and he went with someone who was already dead at the time of his claim, so we could immediately see he was right. Scum can make statements like that ("X is Town") about every character who isn't on their side and it isn't unreasonable for Mafia to have knowledge about character names one way or the other. He also claimed right after I said to be careful with claiming, while the pressure wasn't that high (yet). It's all a little too convenient for a player who's been a major suspect from the start.

Vote: adumbrodeus

Marc, you haven't given me the impression that I can trust you. Not that you've done anything suspicious, but your behavior doesn't make me comfortable. What's up?

I guess I can say the same thing about you, though so far we've been agreeing a lot... at least on the "shaping a strong endgame" part. I have trouble getting my game going with this many people I don't know, who are mostly new on top of that. I feel I constantly have to explain my points of view several times, which takes away from my ability to scumhunt. What also doesn't help is that I would need several lynches to get anywhere near emptying my lynch pool, so I really have to get my priorities straight and pick the best target.

I want you to elaborate on why a Mason can not "be a power role" as well. Just because you can talk to someone outside of the thread doesn't mean they can't also be a "power role," does it?

Masonry in itself is often a power, but what really concerns me is that this might be a covert attempt for you to claim even more. Just stop here.

Also, I do not think it is odd that there are two full town masonries. I think it is possible that there are two full town masonries. It is also possible that, based on my interpretation, Chibo is not Town. Because there is room for error, I felt it would have been anti-town to let the consensus become, unquestionably, "Chibo must be Town."

I don't link the knee-jerk vote he put on you, but I think you need to build more of a case rather than interpreting Swordgard's message differently from well... everyone.

 

[Marc]

Also, that was my last post for now. Like I said before, tomorrow and Saturday I'll be away for smash.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Adumbrodeus' claim is fairly weak. From what I gather he could check a player's name + alignment once over the course of the game and he went with someone who was already dead at the time of his claim, so we could immediately see he was right. Scum can make statements like that ("X is Town") about every character who isn't on their side and it isn't unreasonable for Mafia to have knowledge about character names one way or the other. He also claimed right after I said to be careful with claiming, while the pressure wasn't that high (yet). It's all a little too convenient for a player who's been a major suspect from the start.

Why is it convenient?


A number of us have abilities tied with our character, a one time check of flavor role and alignment wouldn't exactly be anywhere near out of the question, I expect a lot of characters have abilities not tied with their role (for example, swordgard's reveal ability is certainly not an inherent part of mason). I figure you've got at least one additional ability.


The only possible way I could know his name as mafia was if I was a mafia member with an ability similar to what I described, or a mafia cop, and why in God's name would I leave myself open to that?


Remember, I dropped that Cyan was town right before I thought night was gonna come, what other explanation.

 

[EdreesesPieces]

Remember, I dropped that Cyan was town right before I thought night was gonna come, what other explanation.

it is still possible that as Mafia, you guys had a flavor name + alignment check ability, and saw that Scamp was Cyan by using the ability. Then you posted that information about cyan being town knowing full well you were gonna kill scamp and reveal that information, so you could come out and use this to show that you are a townie who has that ability. Don't ask me why you'd do this, maybe you should it'd convince people you were town, who knows, but just because you knew cyan was town doesn't mean you aren't scum.

I agree with Omni's points on lylo. I just didn't think of it so directly, but the reason why I favor people who post a lot whether what they post appears useful or not currently is because of this very reason - it gives some type of information we can go back and dig on when things get heated/imminent later.

 

[adumbrodeus]

it is still possible that as Mafia, you guys had a flavor name + alignment check ability, and saw that Scamp was Cyan by using the ability. Then you posted that information about cyan being town knowing full well you were gonna kill scamp and reveal that information, so you could come out and use this to show that you are a townie who has that ability. Don't ask me why you'd do this, maybe you should it'd convince people you were town, who knows, but just because you knew cyan was town doesn't mean you aren't scum.

I agree with Omni's points on lylo. I just didn't think of it so directly, but the reason why I favor people who post a lot whether what they post appears useful or not currently is because of this very reason - it gives some type of information we can go back and dig on when things get heated/imminent later.

There are no town tells, only scum tells.

I never said it wasn't a possibility, in fact I gave all 3 options (that am town with that as a 1 time use power, that I could be a mafia cop, mafia with that as a 1 time use power). It's not inconcievable that it could be a mafia thing... but mafia is no more likely to have an ability with this then town is.


Point is, if I'm not town, giving the information raises more questions then it answers, especially since I personally proved that it was extremely likely that there was a mafia cop in the game.

I had no reason to give that information, therefore raising more suspicion for myself, unless I was trying to do something else (ex. protect Scamp).


The one thing I'm confused about is, how come shaya was the only person who noticed this?

Seriously, I just revealed mechanics, nobody took me up on this when I revealed this friday a week ago, did nobody pay attention?




Overall point, there's very little it would do to help mafia to make the claim last week, yeah it doesn't prove town... but nothing's a town tell, just scum tells.

 

[BarDulL]

Masonry in itself is often a power, but what really concerns me is that this might be a covert attempt for you to claim even more. Just stop here.

I don't link the knee-jerk vote he put on you, but I think you need to build more of a case rather than interpreting Swordgard's message differently from well... everyone.

...What? I have no intentions of claiming any further toDay. You're acting more and more suspicious to me, Marc. Anyway, it seems you've realized the problem with your argument. You don't even know enough about the mechanics of Masonry in this particular game to be making the assertion that claiming masonry is anti-town. You were basing your assertion on meta of other games.

You may have forgotten, but you're the one who said I was being anti-town for claiming Masonry. I am not pushing for a lynch on Chibo right now, or trying to build a case further for him, although I very well could considering his recent post. I was merely defending my actions thus far.

Omni, I'm thinking two people right now. I'll get back to you later on it.

 

[BarDulL]

I do know that I'm facepalming at adumbrodeus, though, for more reasons than 3. :-/

 

[CT Chia]

I can not begin to explain how terrible you have been playing this game. This is just another reason on top of many as to why I think my interpretation is likely to be the correct one.

Dear god I am so sure you are scum or one of the most thick headed town players I've ever seen. Read the day flavor over and over and tell me how that could possibly be a relayed message from Swordgard.

I need to read up on this Ambro claim I'm hearing, but I'm fairly sure that I'm not going to move my vote.

kupo!

 

[BarDulL]

Dear god I am so sure you are scum or one of the most thick headed town players I've ever seen. Read the day flavor over and over and tell me how that could possibly be a relayed message from Swordgard.

I need to read up on this Ambro claim I'm hearing, but I'm fairly sure that I'm not going to move my vote.

kupo!

Is it a message from OS? Or is it a message from Swordgard? Who is to say, really? The only one who can actually verify it was modkilled. Do you see the problem, now?

 

[Red Arremer]

Just for the record, I am still around, and I am following this thread, I just feel like I cannot add anything at the moment.

 

[TheReflexWonder]

@Reflex: Any reason why we should let you live? I understand you've been inactive for personal reasons, but that doesn't take away from the fact that you've been pretty useless up to this point. There's absolutely 0 information about you because you make 0 contributions to the game making you the perfect coaster. I really don't see you being useful in anyway since you haven't been able to keep up with the game nor comment on what has taken place. /suicideifucanplz

No, and there's not enough new information to really justify keeping me alive. My only real defense is that someone may be worth the lynch until I can prove myself to be useful to the town.

kupo!

just read first couple pages of day 3

major wtf @ bardull. look at the coloring, look at the wording, its written in the 3rd person, so obvious OS wrote it. bardull won't drop the topic either. only scum would try to beat a dead horse topic like this. ontop of all this I didn't like his day 2 posts. very sure of this.

vote bardull

I don't understand why he's so dead-set on questioning it, either.

Also, Shaya. You said Reflex was busy with MLG and assignments? I've done a little research using the amazing search system.

Reflex has about 80 posts on SWF since MLG Orlando ended. I start the Monday after it ended.

Out of those roughly 80 posts, until he was 2 votes from being lynched, 2 of them were in this thread. One of them was a post surprised people want to vote for him, and the other was a one liner.

So, I've basically proven that he had plenty of time to post after MLG Orlando. He was also notoriously inactive before MLG inactive even started. You are defending him despite the fact that he was "busy" being plain untrue. Suspicious to me.

It's entirely possible Reflex was just lazy , and now is posting because he realize he might actually be lynched - it doesn't mean he's mafia. Town members don't wanna die either. I just take issue with people defending players saying they are busy, when they have been posting all over Smash World Forums. It convolutes the difference between actual busy players, and players who monitor the thread but don't post - ie, the latter group is much more likely to be scum.

Those posts have all been one-liners, popping in between classes. I haven't had the opportunity to think and thrust myself into the game with it, though.

Ok, I might as well elaborate on my situation since I was very willing to make myself a target for the mafia before, and I'm being a bit more hesistant to consider myself killed now. I'll also explain my connection with scamp.

A couple of reasons why I'm not expecting it as much.

1. They seem to have a role cop, and townies that put themselves out are less of a priority it seems.

2. I seem to have lost a reasonable amount of credibility so they're not as concerned with me.



Beyond that, there are a few reasons that I'm not as willing to die to make sure certain people get killed.

1. I'm actually not as convinced that the remaining 2 are mafia members anymore, I admit there were holes in my logic and most of it came down to the difference in tells between IRL play and online play, and the inactivity concerns at the very least is a game-changer. I'm still suspicious of them, but not convinced.

2. Here's the real kicker, I had a trump card. Earlier in the game I used two abilities, one of which was a one time use alignment check, the other of which had the implications beyond everything else that the flavor name of the character I used it on was revealed as soon as I died. That would mean that once I died there was another confirmed townie, making things easier for the next day of voting (the reason I said "cyan is town"). By making it occur after my death, I wouldn't have to be so concerned with them killing him that night, so better overall odds.




So yeah, the situation is different now, I'm not so interesting in sacrificing myself anymore.

I think that may be a bad conclusion to draw. Mafia's only had two turns to mess around with a role cop. I think it may be bit much to assume, because it would be almost as lucky a guess as their striking two good roles in two turns.

(I haven't been able to use SmashBoards all day. I thought the site was down.)

 

[adumbrodeus]

I think that may be a bad conclusion to draw. Mafia's only had two turns to mess around with a role cop. I think it may be bit much to assume, because it would be almost as lucky a guess as their striking two good roles in two turns.

(I haven't been able to use SmashBoards all day. I thought the site was down.)

Ok, and let's just assume that my house just randomly appeared out of nowhere, similar odds.


Only assuming that they stuck to moderately active players and have a role cop do the odds of them pulling it off become reasonable, and I'm talking at above 50%.


Taking away the role cop, well I'm not in the mood to calculate it, but they're looking at probably sub-20% (which could happen, but is extremely unlikely), take away both and you're looking at below 5%, aka completely ridiculous.


Granted, it's possible that they had a 1 or 2 shot identifier (similar to what I had), but at this point it's amounting to effectively the same thing.


Why are people so resistant to the idea of using math to figure these things out?

 

[BarDulL]

I don't understand why he's so dead-set on questioning it, either.

Oh. My. God. Do none of you understand the context of the situation?

*facepalm*

Anyway, I am not chasing Chibo right now. I was defending why I claimed masonry. How many times does it need to be said? Ad nausea, anyone?

 

[Omni]

because MATH will not tell us who is scum

you're pretty much stating statistical probabilities that does not get us anywhere closer to nailing scum

 

[Shaya]

Just for the record, I am still around, and I am following this thread, I just feel like I cannot add anything at the moment.

This is a load of crap. This is the most active the threads been the entire time and honestly I am very excited. I am not sure if I can be considered a catalyst for this but the information pouring out is GREAT! And you have nothing to talk about? Honestly you do not have an excuse here, am I wrong in saying this is extremely anti-town?

@Omni, I am not sure whether to consider you saying Im blending in well as a compliment or what?

@Edrees, I wasnt exactly accusing you of being suspicious, but I am glad you replied nicely. I agree with you for the most part, but imagine if Reflex had been lynched at the time he was only ONE vote away? None of this would have happened.

@Adum, I am finding your responses and information better as time goes on. Even though others are starting to think you are even more scummy, you have minimised some of my suspicions of you. However, you have set yourself up as an obvious lynch for investigational purposes; and I am not against using you as such.

An ability to get a players flavour character is actually quite good. You have claimed this is a one off only though. I think a noticable trend in this game is that people are aware of characters and their alignments but not which player they are connected to. An ability to check flavour roles only is a pretty good town ability.

 

[Omni]

no u make a good point, Shaya

whats up .joel

 

[CT Chia]

Oh. My. God. Do none of you understand the context of the situation?

*facepalm*

Anyway, I am not chasing Chibo right now. I was defending why I claimed masonry. How many times does it need to be said? Ad nausea, anyone?

kupo!

The situation is that you spent the better part of the beginning of the day focusing on this and nothing else, not really dropping it. Good way to get people to not focus on you and your scummates.

 

[BarDulL]

kupo!

The situation is that you spent the better part of the beginning of the day focusing on this and nothing else, not really dropping it. Good way to get people to not focus on you and your scummates.

Chibo, where have you been all Day?

 

[Red Arremer]

This is a load of crap. This is the most active the threads been the entire time and honestly I am very excited. I am not sure if I can be considered a catalyst for this but the information pouring out is GREAT! And you have nothing to talk about? Honestly you do not have an excuse here, am I wrong in saying this is extremely anti-town?

no u make a good point, Shaya

whats up .joel

I know it's anti-town, but everything I would say is already said by someone else, and I really have actually nobody I'd suspect to be scum right now. I guess I ran a bit dry after the first two days being super-active.

Unvote by the way.

 

[Pierce7d]

I must apologize. I did ask to join the game, but lately I've been going through severe family issues, and haven't been on the boards at all. I'm afraid I'll have to withdraw. OS, I'll leave the rest to you.

 

[adumbrodeus]

I agree with Omni's points on lylo. I just didn't think of it so directly, but the reason why I favor people who post a lot whether what they post appears useful or not currently is because of this very reason - it gives some type of information we can go back and dig on when things get heated/imminent later.

And there's nothing wrong with that, but over a confirmed townie in a lynch or lose situation...

Sure he might not have as much or as efficient a posting history, but from a probabilistic standpoint, it counts a lot more.

because MATH will not tell us who is scum

you're pretty much stating statistical probabilities that does not get us anywhere closer to nailing scum

I doesn't tell us who PERSONALLY is scum, but probabilistic voting in the long run gives us a much better shot of actually killing all the scum.

@Adum, I am finding your responses and information better as time goes on. Even though others are starting to think you are even more scummy, you have minimised some of my suspicions of you. However, you have set yourself up as an obvious lynch for investigational purposes; and I am not against using you as such.

An ability to get a players flavour character is actually quite good. You have claimed this is a one off only though. I think a noticable trend in this game is that people are aware of characters and their alignments but not which player they are connected to. An ability to check flavour roles only is a pretty good town ability.

Good, I'm still a little surprised that people weren't tossing accusations out when I actually... revealed the information as opposed to now where I just explained mechanics and purpose, mostly cause it was pointless.

But I didn't set myself up as a lynch, I'd prefer to request removal rather then force town to waste a valuable lynch, I was trying to bait mafia into killing me.

 

[DtJ Hilt]

Adum, do you really not get it?

I went ahead and did a reread through all of adumbrodeus' posts (for the past two hours..) and I don't see any reason to keep him around. He's not going to scumhunt anytime soon, and is only going to spout out numbers and make empty accusations with no backing.

Adum, rest of this post is to you. Others can read it if they like, but it won't matter to them becuase... well, they already understand why your logic is off. You seem to be the only one that doesn't. So here we go :/

As far as the overall game, I don't think there ARE true vanilla townies/mafia, looking at what we know so far, it seems to me that everyone has abilities, just those without power roles have them as single use.

I agree. I wouldn't be surprised if almost everyone had a power role of some kind. You're probably right on this one.

Well, think about it this way, I'm gonna assume 3 mafia for this, and let's assume 3 power roles in town. If they have a role-checker...

Night 1: 12 players, 3/12 (rolecheck) + 3/12 (uninformed kill if the role check failed)= 6/12 or 1/2, so with that set-up, they had a 50% chance of getting a power role.

Night 2: We had 2 more players dead, so now we have 3/10 + 3/10 so 6/10 or 60% chance of catching a power role.

That means that the odds of both occurring are 5/10 * 6/10, which equals 30%. Which is relatively unlikely, but far from impossible in terms of random chance, and if somebody on the mafia side told them to concentrate on inactive and moderately active players they could've improved their odds even more.

...interesting. And this is if there are three mafia roles and three power roles, right? Okay. Interesting assumption, probably the minimum on both ends. I would think there would be more power roles though.

Still, 57% with 3 power roles, and this doesn't take into account the possibility that they didn't expend their rolecheck, so 50% each day an addittional player is removed from the pool, so what's their odds of getting the third tonight....


About 50% assuming the third is laying low. (this is including the fact that they averaged an additional person deconfirmed each night).

More calculations built on the assumption that there are three power roles and three mafia members. Don't see why you're dragging that out.

Obviously there are other possibilities, odds of success go up with each additional mafia and down with each power role less, but I strongly suspect if we've got a role-blocker, we've got a doctor, and I doubt the mafia would be stupid enough to not continue like this until they've identified everyone.

You're ignoring the fact that there could be MORE power roles, though. Funny, since you originally said that there probably weren't any vanilla townie roles.

So, that leads to my next point (and I was hoping this was implicit), namely that the odds of hitting 2 power roles are ASTRONOMICALLY LOW without a mafia cop, so odds are, there is a mafia cop. That's information, useful information.

lol And... here's where you went too far. "OH MY GOD THEY HIT THE ROLE BLOCKER TOO THEY MUST HAVE INSIDE INFORMATION" role blocker is a mediocre role for town. That's why you usually see mafia role blockers. There are probably much better roles out there, in this game, than a role blocker. Thinking about our mod, I wouldn't be surprised at ALL if there were some stupid, random, (somewhat) powerful roles out there. I'm not saying there are, but I'm not saying there aren't. I'm not making baseless assumptions. I'm just not eliminating possibilities and spouting out numbers. You're saying that if you take the minimum that there could be, then _____, and using that propaganda to make it seem like mafia made a "lucky shot", and must have a role assisting them. However, there's no, NO reasons to believe that those reasons, or those factors, are true. You're wasting your, and our time, making innaccurate calculations, claiming to be helping. You avoid scumhunting and throw out numbers instead, as a substitute. And you've done ALL of your assumptions on the implication that there are three power roles and three mafia members. Are you not able to scumhunt?

Vote: Adumbrodeus

..so let's get this wagon started, shall we?

 

[DtJ Hilt]

Adumbrodeus, answer this question for me.

What is:

(X + 4)12 - 3

 

[Overswarm]

Pierce has posted so technically he isn't inactive, but we do need a replacement for him. If I do not get a replacement, he will be modkilled this coming Night.


Reflex - ShadowLink84, Omni, Adumbrodeus
Marc - BarDulL
BarDulL- Reflex, Chibo
.joel- Edrees
Adumbrodeus- Marc, Hilt


Deadline is set for Monday, May 3rd at 3:00 PM EST
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Adum, do you really not get it?

I went ahead and did a reread through all of adumbrodeus' posts (for the past two hours..) and I don't see any reason to keep him around. He's not going to scumhunt anytime soon, and is only going to spout out numbers and make empty accusations with no backing.

Adum, rest of this post is to you. Others can read it if they like, but it won't matter to them becuase... well, they already understand why your logic is off. You seem to be the only one that doesn't. So here we go :/I agree. I wouldn't be surprised if almost everyone had a power role of some kind. You're probably right on this one....interesting. And this is if there are three mafia roles and three power roles, right? Okay. Interesting assumption, probably the minimum on both ends. I would think there would be more power roles though.

More calculations built on the assumption that there are three power roles and three mafia members. Don't see why you're dragging that out.You're ignoring the fact that there could be MORE power roles, though. Funny, since you originally said that there probably weren't any vanilla townie roles.

lol And... here's where you went too far. "OH MY GOD THEY HIT THE ROLE BLOCKER TOO THEY MUST HAVE INSIDE INFORMATION" role blocker is a mediocre role for town. That's why you usually see mafia role blockers. There are probably much better roles out there, in this game, than a role blocker. Thinking about our mod, I wouldn't be surprised at ALL if there were some stupid, random, (somewhat) powerful roles out there. I'm not saying there are, but I'm not saying there aren't. I'm not making baseless assumptions. I'm just not eliminating possibilities and spouting out numbers. You're saying that if you take the minimum that there could be, then _____, and using that propaganda to make it seem like mafia made a "lucky shot", and must have a role assisting them. However, there's no, NO reasons to believe that those reasons, or those factors, are true. You're wasting your, and our time, making innaccurate calculations, claiming to be helping. You avoid scumhunting and throw out numbers instead, as a substitute. And you've done ALL of your assumptions on the implication that there are three power roles and three mafia members. Are you not able to scumhunt?

Vote: Adumbrodeus

..so let's get this wagon started, shall we?

This is rich... you're accusing me of not being useful, whereas... how many posts do you have in this thread?

I reread all your posts (took me less then a minute), the majority of them are inactivity johns, and "I'll post later".

Beyond that, you've attacked occasional targets of opportunity, I assume to prevent a lynch when you were attacked.


Even if I'm not contributing to bringing out scum (which I disagree with), numbers are extremely useful.


I find you useless, and suspicious, oh my God, I'm agreeing with omni, but you gotta go, fox now reflex should be the play of the day, but you've proving only a tiny bit more usefu.

 

[EdreesesPieces]

@Edrees, I wasnt exactly accusing you of being suspicious, but I am glad you replied nicely. I agree with you for the most part, but imagine if Reflex had been lynched at the time he was only ONE vote away? None of this would have happened.

Yeah you make a really good point, as I read through all this new information and its extremely beneficial. Credit it to my inexperience with the game coupled with paranoia of not getting a lynch. To be fair I set my "deadline" on Friday, so all this information would have come out anyway Hah! =P

This is a load of crap. This is the most active the threads been the entire time and honestly I am very excited. I am not sure if I can be considered a catalyst for this but the information pouring out is GREAT! And you have nothing to talk about? Honestly you do not have an excuse here, am I wrong in saying this is extremely anti-town?

no u make a good point, Shaya

whats up .joel

I know it's anti-town, but everything I would say is already said by someone else, and I really have actually nobody I'd suspect to be scum right now. I guess I ran a bit dry after the first two days being super-active.

Very unsatisfying answer, what do you guys think, Shaya/Omni? Not being motivated to find scum when scum isn't making themselves obvious is very anti town behavior to me.

Gonna keep my vote.

 

[Omni]

unvote
Vote: .joel

 

[Red Arremer]

Well, I guessed that would happen. I don't know what to say right now, and I suppose anything I'd do now would count as me trying to fend off the votes.

What do you expect me to do now?

 

[Red Arremer]

Just for the record: Any suspicions I've thrown into the game were brushed off as silly or such. I guess this fact kinda made me sore to be as enthusiastic and bring up possibilities of suspects.