BBR Game: Final Fantasy 6 Mafia

[adumbrodeus]

Night 2: We had 2 more players dead, so now we have 2/10 + 2/10 so 4/10 or 40% chance of catching a power role.

That means that the odds of both occurring are 5/10 * 4/10, which equals 20%. Which is relatively unlikely, but far from impossible in terms of random chance, and if somebody on the mafia side told them to concentrate on inactive and moderately active players they could've improved their odds even more.


*edit by way of post.






Ten percent less likely, but still far from impossible, and again, picking a strategy of targeting inactive/moderately active players, I could do some quick calculations, let's cut off at swordgard for this as far as "active" players.


We had 6 players we could classify as "highly active" IMO, names and posts in the thread.

Omni 115
BarDulL 83
EdreesesPieces 63
.joel 52
adumbrodeus 52
swordgard 44

Since I'm doing averages, if we have 15 mafia players, 3 of which are mafia, we should have (3/15 = 1/5, since swordgard wasn't mafia, that brings our average down) 1 mafia in the group on average, so toss out 5 players from the pool for day 1 and day 2, and let's see how those odds match up.


Night 1: 7 players, 3/7 (rolecheck) + 3/7 (uninformed kill if the role check failed)= 6/7 or 8.57/10, so with that set-up, they had a 86% chance of getting a power role.

Night 2: We had 1 more players from the candidate pool, so now we have 2/6 + 2/6 so 6.666.../10 or or 67% chance of catching a power role.

6.666/10 * 8.57/10 = 0.5714285714314286, or about a 57% chance of catching both power roles with this strategy, assuming the power roles are laying low.



So, yeah... assuming my assumptions are correct (that the third power role is consistent with this assuming we have one, but honestly, if we have two (or just two using that strategy), at least one of them getting killed by day 2 was pretty high, and the odds that both of them would die are again, not far-fetched at all, just not better then 50%. This is a little disturbing honestly, until I sat down and thought about it right now, I never realized how likely mafia was to catch the power roles, a role-checker is incredibly powerful with mafia.


Comments?

 

[adumbrodeus]

*by "cut swordgard off" I meant "everyone below him counts as inactive or moderately active".


Obviously it could be recalculated using slight changes in the assumptions if anybody wants to do that, I posted the calculations up so you guys could check my data.


Still, 57% with 3 power roles, and this doesn't take into account the possibility that they didn't expend their rolecheck, so 50% each day an addittional player is removed from the pool, so what's their odds of getting the third tonight....


About 50% assuming the third is laying low. (this is including the fact that they averaged an additional person deconfirmed each night).

 

[DtJ Hilt]

lol Vote: Adumbrodeus

Tell me why you shouldn't be lynched today.

 

[Omni]

idk wtf adumbrodeus is talking about

 

[EdreesesPieces]

He got a little too detailed, but we were talking about the chance mafia would have to catch a power role if they had a mafia cop..haha.

 

[adumbrodeus]

lol Vote: Adumbrodeus

Tell me why you shouldn't be lynched today.

That's your response to all my useful information?


Ok, while I certainly displayed my noobishness at online mafia, I seem to be useful in terms of on the spot crunching when useful, which means when we get a bit more information I can be useful in determining the scenario (aka in the endgame) which is useful for the final votes.


Let me ask you this, am I more useful to the town then say, Reflex?

idk wtf adumbrodeus is talking about

Mafia killed two power roles so far, I just set up a common scenario (3 power roles, 3 mafia) including a role checker and calculated the odds of them getting it right in the aether, which was 20%

Odds of them getting it right if they picked a strategy of going for the less active players, then I calculated that they had a 57% chance of killing both power roles, assuming the third power role is playing similarly to the first 2.


Edreeses was saying that it was too much of a coincidence that they managed to catch them both, even with a role checker, so I calculated the odds of it occurring, and while it's unlikely, it's not THAT unlikely.

If they include a rather basic strategy, it's better then 50% odds that they'd get them both.


I also calced them at a 50% chance to kill the last power role tonight, better if we lynch an innocent.



Obviously there are other possibilities, odds of success go up with each additional mafia and down with each power role less, but I strongly suspect if we've got a role-blocker, we've got a doctor, and I doubt the mafia would be stupid enough to not continue like this until they've identified everyone.



TL;DR: It's not very unlikely the mafia managed to hit both the power roles, regardless of their expirience level since it's just mathematical voting (and while most people wouldn't think to break it down like this, I'm sure everybody can figure out "let's role-check one person, and if they don't have a power role randomly kill somebody else". Unfortunately if this is the mafia strategy I don't see what that tells us. Your thoughts?

He got a little too detailed, but we were talking about the chance mafia would have to catch a power role if they had a mafia cop..haha.

Why too detailed, I just calculated it out with the scenarios and showed my work.


Regardless, I'd appreciate some input, if there's anything anybody can figure out about the mafia from this strategy, it would be useful.

 

[Omni]

this is all dumb because it's completely theory based and does not help us come closer to finding mafia

 

[DtJ Hilt]

Let me ask you this, am I more useful to the town then say, Reflex?

Answer my question first. What good reason do we have in not killing you? You've done almost nothing but talk about theory and what ifs and haven't pushed at all towards scumhunting, only throwing out empty possibilities that have no importance. As you said,the day has just begun. Use the rest of it to prove to us you can find some bad guys.

 

[ShadowLink84]

this is all dumb because it's completely theory based and does not help us come closer to finding mafia

I agree with this, discussing how mafia was so lucky to hit two power roles doesn't mean ANYTHING

 

[ShadowLink84]

Please ignore that post, the computer spazzed and posted before I could put my posting restriction.

I'm a doubles genius

 

[ShadowLink84]

As I was saying before my comp spazzed and well, ****ed me over. I do think we shouldnt go over the details on the luck or abilities concerning Mafia. It does not help us find them, it only wastes time.

I do think we should focus on bandwagoning Reflex. he is very unhelpful, perhaps even more so than chibo(who at least posts), and even after being accused, did not defend himself.

I'm a double's genius.

 

[Omni]

Vote: Reflex

 

[adumbrodeus]

Well frankly, I disagree, without some sort of framework actions occur on their own, and we have no useful way to interpret what we know. In other words, you can't avoid theory, nothing is confirmed yet, so you go with the odds.


We have mafia kills, both of which happen to be power roles, so we have to ask ourselves "why"? Why did they kill those players, was it because of something that they did, what?


So, that leads to my next point (and I was hoping this was implicit), namely that the odds of hitting 2 power roles are ASTRONOMICALLY LOW without a mafia cop, so odds are, there is a mafia cop. That's information, useful information.

Also, if they hit a power role tomorrow, that tells us that there's a high likelyhood that there's 4 Mafia or more given their "luck" in determining power roles, also at this point it's very unlikely that there are 2 or less.


But here's the take-home point here, if I'm correct, they were simply eliminated because they were power roles, and therefore, it's not a reflection on their play, so day actions won't tell us anything about who killed them. Basically, this was to deal with Edreeses' point which I considered off-base.


Again, that's the most likely conclusion given the information we have.



I'm interested in alternative conclusions, I ran the math, does anyone have any better conclusions based on the data?



If you guys just dislike me theorizing game set-ups... well if you take a look at mafiascum's message board, you'll notice that it's a very important tactic. I figured I'd do a bit of research. Granted, it's still relatively early game, but still, it pays to pay attention early on.



Take-home point: Math is useful for figuring out information about our opposition.

I agree with this, discussing how mafia was so lucky to hit two power roles doesn't mean ANYTHING

What? No.


We were discussing WHY they managed to hit two power roles and came to the conclusion that there is most likely a mafia cop, otherwise the odds of this occurring are unreasonably low, and furthermore it gives us a tentative idea of the composition of the mafia itself.


I see that as useful.




Regardless, no retaliatory vote, I don't think either of you are suspicious enough yet.


Vote: Reflex

 

[DtJ Hilt]

You're ignoring the fact that we DON'T KNOW HOW MANY POWER ROLES THERE ARE.

Your math means nothing if you don't know where to work from. You're jumping to conclusions way too fast. And you still haven't paid any attention to what I'm saying.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Sorry man, that's just incorrect.


I'm theorizing most likely options based on the information we know. So far, what actually occurred suggests the most likely case is mafia cop with 3 or more town power roles and 3 or more mafia.

It would take a doubling of the number of power roles to achieve similar reliability as one mafia cop which seems unlikely from a set-up standpoint but is possible, or a tripling of the number of mafia (which means the game would be over before it begun, so we can toss that out).


Furthermore, I didn't "jump" to any conclusions, nothing I said was conclusive. However, I DID suggest that it was prudent to play the odds and I did give a very complete explanation of what those odds are.

 

[Omni]

the point, adumbrodeus, is can u do anything besides jumping on theory and looking at numbers? that's all you've done all game besides link very weak chains of thoughts together.

 

[Omni]

like you've just made the assumption that there is a mafia cop. now what

 

[TheReflexWonder]

My biggest worry is that people have really gamechanging abilities.

 

[adumbrodeus]

the point, adumbrodeus, is can u do anything besides jumping on theory and looking at numbers? that's all you've done all game besides link very weak chains of thoughts together.

Isn't that precisely what one DOES in a Mafia game?

No seriously, anything anybody has said in this game can be classified as either exactly that or "let's lynch this guy", you know, poking people so you get a response till you build up enough evidence to do something.

like you've just made the assumption that there is a mafia cop. now what

You're obviously not reading very well, I made no such assumption, I said that based on the probabilities, there's a very high likelyhood.


Providing evidence that HEAVILY suggests something is the exact opposite of making an assumption.


Without some framework of probability, the game devolves completely into WIFORM logic, beyond simple scum-hunting, mafia is about probabilistic voting.



Which makes me wonder, why are you so interested in squelching that when I bring up the topic?

 

[Omni]

what are you talking about squelching? im trying to figure out what exactly you're trying to accomplish to help find mafia. right now i dont see your line of discussion leading us anywhere

having the evidence (which you still dont have) that there is a mafia cop does not bring us ANY closer to finding mafia. that is my point entirely.

 

[adumbrodeus]

The important thing is that helps us model the most likely number of mafia members, this depends on their night-kill behavior tomorrow and the following day, but it gives us concrete probabilistic data on the number of mafia members. From there we can see who fits.


For now, this line of discussion led to it's conclusion since I gave the necessary information for now, but I'll bring it up again, tomorrow, or again today if needed.


As far as evidence... probabilistic data IS evidence, the only hard evidence you'll get in mafia beyond people claiming mafia. The fact that we're left with mafia either winning the lottery, having a ridiculous number of power roles and/or mafia, or we have a mafia cop, that's pretty strong probabilistic evidence.

 

[Omni]

okay i'll make this clear and simple for you:

now that you've done this who do you think is scum

 

[EdreesesPieces]

Only 2 more to lynch

 

[adumbrodeus]

*sigh*


Sometimes you gotta lay groundwork for future catching scum, and sometimes you gotta talk about strategy, not just your own but the other side's.


As I said before Bardull is my primary suspect at the moment for reasons I previously stated.

 

[adumbrodeus]

I don't like hammering.


Vote: Reflex

 

[DtJ Hilt]

Adum you already voted reflex. He's still at L-2

 

[DtJ Hilt]

Wait, if my vote for adum didn't count (just noticed I didn't unvote first <_<) then he's at L-1

Which is cool lol

if it did count, unvote

Vote: Reflex. NOW he's at L-1.

 

[adumbrodeus]

I phail, obviously...


Trying to do too many things at once.

 

[Shaya]

So one more vote until Reflex is lynched?

 

[TheReflexWonder]

Wouldn't that also be a good way to keep suspicion off of you being Mafia?
Let alone that your inactivity hinders town and it also becomes suspicious that you haven't even posted when you were initially voted for, hell not until multiple people voted.

While certainly MLG hindered your activity, it did not affect you so greatly that you would have so very little participation.

I suppose that could work, but with such a number of players in the game still, I think it would be more beneficial to run with it longer. It seems like a waste of an opportunity to not attempt to get a single night out of it, and that wouldn't even seem any more suspicious, realistically.

Maybe you did it on purpose so you can use something like this as a defense.

That's possible, but given the fact that there are so many others to choose from, I think it would make more sense to take my chances if I were mafia.

Didn't you just do that? Milk it I mean. There's always the possibility that it was a ploy to make people not suspect you as well.

I didn't get anything out of it as it is; mafia could've taken anyone, and it would be the only link to defending myself, which is flimsy.

Vote: Reflex

Planning on going back to the sidelines after that defense? It could have been your scum buddies' decision on scamp's lynch for all we know.

Granted, people weren't voting you because you were plain scummy, you were almost offed because of your lack of posts, which in itself, is scummy. But with your contribution being as low as it was, we weren't getting anything out of you. Glad to see you decided to make a post, though.

If I could plan with a friend that is scum, that still seems illogical, as it would be easy to suggest that I would use it as a defense, and we'd still only be offing one at a time.

Mafia Cop is a staple role in large games, which lets them check one player's role every night. There are also less powerful investigative possibilities, such as namechecking or whatever. Just saying it's something to take into account when thinking about the nightkills. Probably still too early to tell, but I figured I'd bring up the possibility considering we have several newer players.

Roleblockers can be crucial late game and since they already offed the Cop, they have no reason to let what is essentially another power role slide. Like I said, I consider Night 1 a lucky shot, but two power roles in a row in a large game is a bit too lucky for my tastes. We'll see what happens in Night 3. It might be that Town is really stacked with power roles, but that'd be even more reason to assume Mafia Cop balancewise, actually. It's an interesting notion that you think there are other reasons for Scamp's death. Care to elaborate?

Didn't realize we lost such useful members. I feel stupid, as I have been catching up on the game whenever I get the chance, which isn't often. Since plentiful power roles would be difficult to balance in a game like this, I imagine we're very unlucky this time around, which is no good. All the more reason to ignore me and go for someone who is actually causing issue, though you have no reason to believe that I'm doing much for you. I have been a liability throughout, but I do want to fix that. Give me another day, and I'll make up for it. If it's not satisfactory, off me at that time. One of my two major school projects is over since this afternoon.

Someone else who strikes me as incredibly suspicious is Reflex. He seems to follow the game, but hardly posts. If he does, his posts are pretty obscure, if you ask me. Laying low is usually a strong hint at someone being scum, and his posts don't help him out either.

FoS: Reflex

I've been meaning to post, but there was little to poke my head in about, and I completely missed the accusations from two pages earlier, somehow...It's no wonder I'm in such a mess now. If I didn't miss it, I definitely would've defended myself earlier.

And I'm sticking with my vote on Reflex, I feel like he's done nothing to help the town. Also, Pierce, can you please post as DarkMusician's replacement already?

Last time, people got on my case for wanting to vote an inactive aggressively (Reflex), but because we all wanted to wait and find someone that has suspicious behavior rather than being inactive, and took no action, we didn't even get a lynch in. We need to get things going if we want to win. And there are still enough of us left to make inactives the number one priority, just so we can actually find someone to agree on and get something done toDay.

It makes sense, but I'm going to be active from now on. We still have time before the day ends--Don't be hasty.

Answer my question first. What good reason do we have in not killing you? You've done almost nothing but talk about theory and what ifs and haven't pushed at all towards scumhunting, only throwing out empty possibilities that have no importance. As you said,the day has just begun. Use the rest of it to prove to us you can find some bad guys.

This seems off to me. Everyone is really pushing the bandwagon, and you just 180? Everyone else is of the mind that inactives are top priority--Care to elaborate on why you changed your mind?

I do think we should focus on bandwagoning Reflex. he is very unhelpful, perhaps even more so than chibo(who at least posts), and even after being accused, did not defend himself.

I've got this, I promise.

I phail, obviously...

Trying to do too many things at once.

I've done the same, but it's gotten me in quite the mess. I need to participate in this game for myself as well as everyone else. :/

So one more vote until Reflex is lynched?

"Draw, pilgrim."

Don't kill me yet.

 

[DtJ Hilt]

Finally lol

Unvote for now

 

[DtJ Hilt]

My question wasn't actually me saying that I wanted his lynch. It was me asking him if he could think of one good reason for him to stay alive, which he avoided to answer. It was a failed pressure vote intended to get him to make a better post and stop throwing out pointless numbers.

Glad you're paying attention, though. Hopefully we'll see more from you.

 

[TheReflexWonder]

My question wasn't actually me saying that I wanted his lynch. It was me asking him if he could think of one good reason for him to stay alive, which he avoided to answer. It was a failed pressure vote intended to get him to make a better post and stop throwing out pointless numbers.

It was a lot of predicting odds that didn't help much (at least, from what I can tell), but I suppose if it helps him make a more informed post, he's welcome to it. Doesn't help others if they don't buy it, though. Surprised that he didn't give any answer outside of "Well, Reflex is useless--Point your finger at him."

 

[Shaya]

So you say you have read most posts now and have updated.

Then what is your opinion on:

Bardull -> His aggression has been notable throughout the whole game. He has admitted to being in a masonry group with someone who he is not certain of the alignment of. He voted Marc for saying his post only help scum. In a similar steed his day 1 actions stopped being heavily focused on due to your inactivity starting a bandwagon.

Pierce7d -> Being the second replacement for a character, at the time the participant was only replying to inactivity accusations more than anything else. Pierce still has not contributed today. What are your thoughts on Pierce being the new inactive player lynch.

Adum -> With Scamps death came a strong / noticable connection between adum and scamp. He has also painted himself as a sacrifice in the past.

Other than those three, who are you thinking of as potentially scum from purely your observations?

 

[EdreesesPieces]

it appears that reflex is dead and the day is over. look:

Reflex - ShadowLink84, Hilt, Edrees
Marc - BarDulL
Adumbrodeus - .joel


Deadline is set for May 3rd at 3:00 PM EST
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

That's 3

As said, it's a chance they got curious about him.
For example, Scamp was discussing indies (vigilante) prior to his death, and also seemed to protect Chibo with the statement that he's "just a dancing little moogle" - I reckon mafia could've taken that as a hint that he had a power role.
We don't know that, though.

I also will join the Reflex bandwagon, he's my second-strongest suspect, but has the most support now. So:

unvote
Vote: Reflex

4

Vote: Reflex

5

I don't like hammering.


Vote: Reflex

6

Wait, if my vote for adum didn't count (just noticed I didn't unvote first <_<) then he's at L-1

Which is cool lol

if it did count, unvote

Vote: Reflex. NOW he's at L-1.

7. it appears i mis counted the first time? i think its done, the rules state once somebody gains enough votes, its over and votes after that don't count.

 

[EdreesesPieces]

Wow i'm an idiot, i was right the first time. i already counted hilt. so yes, nevermind, he's still alive. carry on

 

[EdreesesPieces]

By the way, it appears that Chibo is *so* busy and **** with his stuff that he has time to do Overswarm's quizzes. Can't he use that time to post in this thread? I no longer buy the busy excuse

 

[BarDulL]

So you say you have read most posts now and have updated.

Then what is your opinion on:

Bardull -> His aggression has been notable throughout the whole game. He has admitted to being in a masonry group with someone who he is not certain of the alignment of. He voted Marc for saying his post only help scum. In a similar steed his day 1 actions stopped being heavily focused on due to your inactivity starting a bandwagon.

Pierce7d -> Being the second replacement for a character, at the time the participant was only replying to inactivity accusations more than anything else. Pierce still has not contributed today. What are your thoughts on Pierce being the new inactive player lynch.

Adum -> With Scamps death came a strong / noticable connection between adum and scamp. He has also painted himself as a sacrifice in the past.

Other than those three, who are you thinking of as potentially scum from purely your observations?

To be honest, I don't think Adum is scum. Pierce has yet to make any posts of merit, so it's too soon to say.

I voted for Marc because admitting to a masonry is not anti-town from this game's perspective. As you've observed, there's already a very high chance that there were two mason partnerships already. I have claimed to be in one as well, and if we take it for what it is at face value, it seems being in a mason partnership in this game of Mafia is not uncommon. What finally spurred me to vote was the odd assumption that Marc made, which was "It seems strange for Town to have two full Town-aligned Masonries by the way. :S". I believe I made it clear that I am uncertain of my partner's alignment. I did not claim that my masonry was full-town aligned. This is a relatively intriguing statement, and I am curious to know what his reasoning was for saying it.

On another note:

As far as I know, Shaya, you have been very quiet this entire game. Not much is really known about you. If you could, I'd like to hear your thoughts spanning these past 3 Days. A list of who you feel is scum and why would do nicely as well.

 

[Shaya]

Id prefer to wait to get Reflex`s opinion before I give my own, but I will, you can count on it.
Unfortunately though, I am not too definite on who I believe is scum or not, I was more inclined to uhh, feel, who was town.

My experience in this game is limited so Im not sure of tell-sign ways of spotting scum, other than being perplexed with coincidences (which make me consider specific connections between players) or votes that seemed out of character.

 

[TheReflexWonder]

By the way, it appears that Chibo is *so* busy and **** with his stuff that he has time to do Overswarm's quizzes. Can't he use that time to post in this thread? I no longer buy the busy excuse

Perhaps he doesn't spend a lot of time on them. While I was busy, I haven't used all of my time to work on school stuff, and I didn't post in here much. That being said, do we really need to worry about him? He's confirmed as a townsperson, so though he's just wasted space, I don't think it's enough to warrant doing much about it.

So you say you have read most posts now and have updated.

Then what is your opinion on:

Bardull -> His aggression has been notable throughout the whole game. He has admitted to being in a masonry group with someone who he is not certain of the alignment of. He voted Marc for saying his post only help scum. In a similar steed his day 1 actions stopped being heavily focused on due to your inactivity starting a bandwagon.

Pierce7d -> Being the second replacement for a character, at the time the participant was only replying to inactivity accusations more than anything else. Pierce still has not contributed today. What are your thoughts on Pierce being the new inactive player lynch.

Adum -> With Scamps death came a strong / noticable connection between adum and scamp. He has also painted himself as a sacrifice in the past.

Other than those three, who are you thinking of as potentially scum from purely your observations?

I voted for Marc because admitting to a masonry is not anti-town from this game's perspective. As you've observed, there's already a very high chance that there were two mason partnerships already. I have claimed to be in one as well, and if we take it for what it is at face value, it seems being in a mason partnership in this game of Mafia is not uncommon. What finally spurred me to vote was the odd assumption that Marc made, which was "It seems strange for Town to have two full Town-aligned Masonries by the way. :S". I believe I made it clear that I am uncertain of my partner's alignment. I did not claim that my masonry was full-town aligned. This is a relatively intriguing statement, and I am curious to know what his reasoning was for saying it.

I'm not buying it. You have been aggressive throughout, and your vote on Marc is illogical to me. It is not something I imagine that a reasonable person would want to outright retaliate against him for, especially since you both (apparently) are starting controversy based on masonry alignment. A vote is a lot stronger than an FoS, as well, and it doesn't make suspicion of you any weaker. I'm very much more inclined to think that your post is a lot more likely to be an indication of scum. In fact--

Vote: BarDulL

We'll see what Pierce ends up doing in the next few hours. I think we can give him a little more time before we start raising suspicions. Not even a lot of time, but he may not have had time to get up to speed yet. Still, if he is mafia, he would either need to catch up and stay well-informed to keep the heat off of himself, or feign inactivity/ignorance, but the latter seems like a weak choice, especially since everyone is so adamant about clearing inactives now. He's an obvious choice for inactives, otherwise, but I think we shouldn't be worrying about inactives until day's end is closer (but not too close--last time that happened, a lynch didn't happen at all).

As for adumbrodeus, I guess I missed that connection...? Care to help me out with that? I'm honestly not worried about him, as it is--He is active, and appears to at least think that he's on to something. However, show me what I'm missing, and I may change my mind.

I worry about a few people, since they haven't had strong evidence mounted on them, such as Omni. His argument with BarDulL a while ago appeared to be arguing over semantics. It could mean that they're playing a good game, but the cynic in me thinks that they're worth pursuing sooner than later.