BBR Game: Final Fantasy 6 Mafia

[Marc]

Mafia might have a Cop themselves (someone who can check people's roles), considering how well this kill worked out for them. I still think they got lucky the first Night. If there's any sort of pattern it's that both Dastrn and Scamp weren't that active. They might have been right about something (or Mafia wants us to think that), but it's more likely those kills simply left little to go on for us. If that's their line of thought, it means whoever isn't contributing is likely to be next. Like I said though, it's reasonable to assume they have some kind of scouting ability.

I'm unsure whether Swordgard wrote the bit in blue or Overswarm did, but for now I'm considering Chibo confirmed Town. I agree there's reason for doubt if it was Swordgard's message, but the way it is worded suggests it's a moderator message. Maybe Overswarm is allowed to confirm this? And yeah, I agree with Hilt that any kind of independent should be weeded out ASAP. If Town starts doing poorly, they can simply turn on us with us having little chance to get them because at some point we absolutely must kill Mafia to keep the game going.

Seems like ShadowLink is today's pick for a post restriction. A funny one at that. =X

Facepalm at BarDulL for claiming Mason. You're making it easier for Mafia to kill or possibly scout power roles. It seems strange for Town to have two full Town-aligned Masonries by the way. :S

 

[Overswarm]

This just in:

DarkMusician has been replaced by ssBBFiction

ssBBFiction decided to give his role to Pierce and drop out of the game.

This role is being spread ALL around. Last time though.

 

[BarDulL]

Mafia might have a Cop themselves (someone who can check people's roles), considering how well this kill worked out for them. I still think they got lucky the first Night. If there's any sort of pattern it's that both Dastrn and Scamp weren't that active. They might have been right about something (or Mafia wants us to think that), but it's more likely those kills simply left little to go on for us. If that's their line of thought, it means whoever isn't contributing is likely to be next. Like I said though, it's reasonable to assume they have some kind of scouting ability.

I'm unsure whether Swordgard wrote the bit in blue or Overswarm did, but for now I'm considering Chibo confirmed Town. I agree there's reason for doubt if it was Swordgard's message, but the way it is worded suggests it's a moderator message. Maybe Overswarm is allowed to confirm this? And yeah, I agree with Hilt that any kind of independent should be weeded out ASAP. If Town starts doing poorly, they can simply turn on us with us having little chance to get them because at some point we absolutely must kill Mafia to keep the game going.

Seems like ShadowLink is today's pick for a post restriction. A funny one at that. =X

Facepalm at BarDulL for claiming Mason. You're making it easier for Mafia to kill or possibly scout power roles. It seems strange for Town to have two full Town-aligned Masonries by the way. :S

Vote: Marc

 

[Red Arremer]

I'm at a tournament over this weekend, I'll post on Monday. Have fun, guys.

 

[EdreesesPieces]

What kind of role scanning power can Mafia have though? I mean, if they know everyone's role, that seems...way too over powered. If I was mafia, and I could check anybody's role, there's no way I'd lose the game. I'm thinking it's more that they are good and can just feel people out well.

 

[EdreesesPieces]

And LMAO at ShadowLink's post restriciton.

 

[DtJ Hilt]

I wouldn't say Scamp's death was a lucky shot or whatever, for mafia. Town Roleblockers aren't that powerful, as they have a good chance of hitting town (possibly nulling the doc) and even if they do hit mafia, mafia usually doesn't have too powerful of abilities, but even if they did, hitting an important town ability would be risky. And most of the time you can't role block night kills. I'm not sure why you'd suggest mafia having an investigative role when their first kill was before they could investigate, and their second was a mediocre kill at best.

 

[DtJ Hilt]

Gonna be inactive for the rest of the day.

 

[Omni]

Wouldn't that also be a good way to keep suspicion off of you being Mafia?
Let alone that your inactivity hinders town and it also becomes suspicious that you haven't even posted when you were initially voted for, hell not until multiple people voted.

While certainly MLG hindered your activity, it did not affect you so greatly that you would have so very little participation.

shadowlink, u didnt use your post restriction in this post. are u sure u arent making that restriction up

 

[Overswarm]

ShadowLink84 has messed up with a posting restriction, and has received an unknown punishment. He is not modkilled.

Careful.

 

[ShadowLink84]

shadowlink, u didnt use your post restriction in this post. are u sure u arent making that restriction up

I had forgotten. *blames monster hunter tri*

I'm a double's genius

 

[Marc]

Vote: Marc

Great reasoning there. Seems like a OMGUS vote considering I called you out on revealing too much and claiming something contradictory to common setups (two Masonries).

What kind of role scanning power can Mafia have though? I mean, if they know everyone's role, that seems...way too over powered. If I was mafia, and I could check anybody's role, there's no way I'd lose the game. I'm thinking it's more that they are good and can just feel people out well.

Mafia Cop is a staple role in large games, which lets them check one player's role every night. There are also less powerful investigative possibilities, such as namechecking or whatever. Just saying it's something to take into account when thinking about the nightkills. Probably still too early to tell, but I figured I'd bring up the possibility considering we have several newer players.

I wouldn't say Scamp's death was a lucky shot or whatever, for mafia. Town Roleblockers aren't that powerful, as they have a good chance of hitting town (possibly nulling the doc) and even if they do hit mafia, mafia usually doesn't have too powerful of abilities, but even if they did, hitting an important town ability would be risky. And most of the time you can't role block night kills. I'm not sure why you'd suggest mafia having an investigative role when their first kill was before they could investigate, and their second was a mediocre kill at best.

Roleblockers can be crucial late game and since they already offed the Cop, they have no reason to let what is essentially another power role slide. Like I said, I consider Night 1 a lucky shot, but two power roles in a row in a large game is a bit too lucky for my tastes. We'll see what happens in Night 3. It might be that Town is really stacked with power roles, but that'd be even more reason to assume Mafia Cop balancewise, actually. It's an interesting notion that you think there are other reasons for Scamp's death. Care to elaborate?

 

[Shaya]

Towns getting a beating... two days in a row.

I am -really- not happy with Bardulls actions over the course of all of this (including day one). Him now voting for Marc is another seemingly unrequired action.
Scamp being revealed as Cyan is an odd turn of events.

 

[DtJ Hilt]

Roleblockers can be crucial late game and since they already offed the Cop, they have no reason to let what is essentially another power role slide. Like I said, I consider Night 1 a lucky shot, but two power roles in a row in a large game is a bit too lucky for my tastes. We'll see what happens in Night 3. It might be that Town is really stacked with power roles, but that'd be even more reason to assume Mafia Cop balancewise, actually. It's an interesting notion that you think there are other reasons for Scamp's death. Care to elaborate?

It's interesting that I think there could be another reason for scamp's death? What are you talking about? It's not that I think there's a specific reason other than mafia flavor cop, it's that I'm not convinced on the whole mafia flavor cop scenario. I'm not saying it's impossible, or that they don't have one, I'm just saying it's unlikely (I've actually never seen anti-town cop used lol)

Also yeah. I think it's safe to say town (and mafia, probably, for that matter) are stacked with power roles and this setup is probably extremely complicated. It happens, when someone makes their first game, haha. Also.. no, it's not a staple role in large games. You are right about town roleblockers being a bit more powerful in the late game. The problem with role blockers late game is that you pretty much can't claim because town role blockers are rare as hell and nobody will believe you aren't a mafia aligned role blocker :/

Also lol at os getting infracted

 

[Shaya]

Also lol at os getting infracted

I have honestly no idea whats up with that and whether or not its useful information for this mafia game

Implied moderator Mason Group.
< /jokes >

 

[Overswarm]

I have honestly no idea whats up with that and whether or not its useful information for this mafia game

Implied moderator Mason Group.
< /jokes >

It is not game-related. I'd like it removed, and am unsure how it got there. ChiboSempai's account gave it to me.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Two power roles are members of the backroom, dunno that strikes me as a little odd, thoughts?



Hilt, while you're right in terms of it not being a wasted lynch... until the end game a confirmed survivor vs. possible mafia, I think possible mafia is more effective to lynch, that is, until the endgame of course. Because until that situation, survivor is basically a townie as far as the mafia is concerned, so they'll kill during the nightkills, and in order to avoid being lynched, survivor still has to scumhunt.



As far as the overall game, I don't think there ARE true vanilla townies/mafia, looking at what we know so far, it seems to me that everyone has abilities, just those without power roles have them as single use.

 

[DtJ Hilt]

A survivor is usually going to act just as scummy as mafia. It's not that easily done to distinguish mafia from independent, regardless of what type of independent you're dealing with.

Adum, anyone in particular you're suspicious of? Anyone you'd like to put your vote on?

 

[adumbrodeus]

Why? I really wouldn't expect survivor to give off any scum tells cause there's only one situation that they'd act scummy, otherwise they're just as vulnerable to the mafia, and the mafia has no way of telling them apart from the rest of the town, furthermore it puts them in a lynch situation.




Bardull, after all the work omni goes through to clear his intentions for the initial one and now he's doing the same thing with Marc.


FOS: Bardull


For now, I'll see how this develops.

 

[DtJ Hilt]

Because survivor often has a lack of drive in finding scum. They're usually not going to push themselves to scumhunt because they don't have to to win. Same can be said for mafia. It's not as bad as it is for mafia, since mafia has to actually search for fake reasons to accuse people in order to bring mislynches. Regardless though, there's no definite way to tell the difference between survivor and mafia, and lynching one is not detrimental to town. It's not as good as lynching a more dangerous role, but it's still a step forward.

Also, your comment about Bardull doesn't make sense. Care to elaborate?

 

[DtJ Hilt]

Also why just the FoS?

 

[Marc]

Hilt: I misunderstood the meaning of your earlier post, thinking you had noticed something about Scamp's death. Mafia Cop has been in many large games I was in, but it doesn't really matter for now.

Somewhat curious why independents are discussed so much again.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Because survivor often has a lack of drive in finding scum. They're usually not going to push themselves to scumhunt because they don't have to to win. Same can be said for mafia. It's not as bad as it is for mafia, since mafia has to actually search for fake reasons to accuse people in order to bring mislynches. Regardless though, there's no definite way to tell the difference between survivor and mafia, and lynching one is not detrimental to town. It's not as good as lynching a more dangerous role, but it's still a step forward.

Also, your comment about Bardull doesn't make sense. Care to elaborate?

My in-person understanding of survivor is, when they come up, since they have nothing to lose and everything to gain from perfectly mimicking town behavior beyond not putting themselves too far out there (therefore getting snapped up by Mafia), they tend to be almost indistinguishable from town. Again, maybe it's different in online games, but I find they rarely act scummy.



My comment about Bardull is referring to his earlier conversation with Omni, and how he did basically the same thing with Omni earlier in the game. It's possible he's trying to encourage activity, but it seems a bit much.

Also why just the FoS?

Because the day is still young, I wanna see how this develops before cementing it, unless people are up for starting a bandwagon.

 

[Red Arremer]

I'm back, and will catch up with the posts now.

 

[Red Arremer]

I'm very unpleased about all the flavour talk that has taken place.

Apparently adumbrodeus has a lot of concerns about these dreaded independents. He keeps on moving people off-track with his theories that are mainly based on flavour.

Flavour might be slight hints, but one thing is sure: The ones that flavour is helping out the most are mafia. This way, they'll collect information about powers and possible targets. There's the chance that mafia killed Scamp because of the flavour talk.

Vote: adumbrodeus

Someone else who strikes me as incredibly suspicious is Reflex. He seems to follow the game, but hardly posts. If he does, his posts are pretty obscure, if you ask me. Laying low is usually a strong hint at someone being scum, and his posts don't help him out either.

FoS: Reflex

 

[adumbrodeus]

Flavor?


Optimal strategies for factions and roles is not "flavor", it's "mechanics", I brought it up because I only recently had a chance to respond to omni's counter-claim, and while I can see that it might be a difference of opinion on how to deal with them mechanics-wise, as opposed to an outright lie, it's certainly not a flavor discussion.


At worst, it's a slight over-expansion of a relevant discussion.



While I see the wisdom of not going to indepth into flavor (unless it was tied to something, somehow), this does not give you carte blanche to label everything as flavor.

 

[Omni]

Extremely unhappy with Chibo being townie. He's been such a waste of space since he's been here.

Going to do a re-read and actually be less quiet today. Trying to decipher who is useless townie (Chibo) or inactive townie (Dastrn) between who is actually scum is proving difficult.

 

[Red Arremer]

If you drag on the topic for too long (which you are doing, and did in the past 2 days, as well), it, though, becomes flavour.

While the game's mechanics are important as well, we don't even have the slightest clue if there are indies, let alone a survivor or jester or vig and whatnot. And as long as this point stands, speculating about how a survivor would most likely act is irrelevant, distracting, and - you probably can guess it already - flavour.

The fact you are dragging on these topics seems scummy to me.

 

[Marc]

I hope Chibo will give us more input now that he's a confirmed Townie.

 

[adumbrodeus]

No, mechanics and strategy is never "flavor" by definition because flavor is the "decorations" of the game, it refers only to the theme. Strategy, even speculative strategy, simply never falls under that category.


You had a number of things you could call me out on as a possibility... but you chose to do use something clearly incorrect, calling role mechanics and strategy a "flavor" discussion. Directly incorrect information is bad for town in general, so I don't like it.


I'm keeping my eye on you, but based on your previous interactions, I don't think that both you and Omni are mafia, one or the other presumably. But we shall see. More of a hunch then anything else at this point though.




Also... I'm sure you've noticed that in general I have a tendency to drag topics, it's certainly not restricted to just this game.

 

[CT Chia]

Sorry about being inactive, I haven't been in any of my mafia games recently. Been having some recent trouble juggling around my job, my new work load in classes, and other activities.

...

kupo!

 

[EdreesesPieces]

Okay seriously guys. I think because we failed to lynch anyone two consecutive days, we need to seriously jump on a bandwagon and get somebody lynched.

Can we set our own deadline to lynch someone by April 30th? I ask this because activity nearly dies here on the weekends, and the deadline is a monday. I think we'll have a good chance of actually getting a lynch in if we set our own deadline by Friday. I really really don't want to go another day without a lynch.

Also. .joel why would Mafia kill Scamp because of flavor talk? Can you elaborate on that?

Unvote
Vote: Reflex

 

[EdreesesPieces]

And I'm sticking with my vote on Reflex, I feel like he's done nothing to help the town. Also, Pierce, can you please post as DarkMusician's replacement already?

Last time, people got on my case for wanting to vote an inactive aggressively (Reflex), but because we all wanted to wait and find someone that has suspicious behavior rather than being inactive, and took no action, we didn't even get a lynch in. We need to get things going if we want to win. And there are still enough of us left to make inactives the number one priority, just so we can actually find someone to agree on and get something done toDay.

 

[DtJ Hilt]

Yeah reflex needs to die.

 

[EdreesesPieces]

One more thing

Mafia Cop is a staple role in large games, which lets them check one player's role every night. There are also less powerful investigative possibilities, such as namechecking or whatever. Just saying it's something to take into account when thinking about the nightkills. Probably still too early to tell, but I figured I'd bring up the possibility considering we have several newer players.

But even if they can check one player's role per night, what are the chances they happen to check two players who had strong power roles? Seems like they had to be smart/good players - enough to know, out of 15 players, that the 2 they were able to check on the 2 nights both had strong power roles. I agree that it isn't a coincidence, and that's why I think mafia may be someone experienced at the game. Just a theory, I'm not convinced of it, but it's just..too much of a coincidence/too much luck. The other option is what someone already mentioned, that everybody in the game has a pretty strong role.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Well, think about it this way, I'm gonna assume 3 mafia for this, and let's assume 3 power roles in town. If they have a role-checker...

Night 1: 12 players, 3/12 (rolecheck) + 3/12 (uninformed kill if the role check failed)= 6/12 or 1/2, so with that set-up, they had a 50% chance of getting a power role.

Night 2: We had 2 more players dead, so now we have 3/10 + 3/10 so 6/10 or 60% chance of catching a power role.

That means that the odds of both occurring are 5/10 * 6/10, which equals 30%. Which is relatively unlikely, but far from impossible in terms of random chance, and if somebody on the mafia side told them to concentrate on inactive and moderately active players they could've improved their odds even more.



As far as Reflex... I dunno, but I would shed any tears if we lynch him and he's town at the moment, his lack of involvement is anti-town in and of itself... unless a better target presents himself, reasonable target for a lynch I guess...



Also, Edreeses, remember that we missed yesterday because somebody went and got himself mod-killed, it wasn't the town's fault in general.

 

[Overswarm]

Reflex - ShadowLink84, Hilt, Edrees
Marc - BarDulL
Adumbrodeus - .joel


Deadline is set for May 3rd at 3:00 PM EST
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

 

[EdreesesPieces]

Wow, now that I look at the numbers/chances, you make a good point. It's not that unlikely at all. Thanks dude, that was helpful.

 

[adumbrodeus]

... I'm an idiot, it's less likely then that, for the second round I forget to eliminate the power role they already removed, let me fix that, just a moment.

 

[Red Arremer]

Also. .joel why would Mafia kill Scamp because of flavor talk? Can you elaborate on that?

As said, it's a chance they got curious about him.
For example, Scamp was discussing indies (vigilante) prior to his death, and also seemed to protect Chibo with the statement that he's "just a dancing little moogle" - I reckon mafia could've taken that as a hint that he had a power role.
We don't know that, though.

I also will join the Reflex bandwagon, he's my second-strongest suspect, but has the most support now. So:

unvote
Vote: Reflex