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BBR Game: Final Fantasy 6 Mafia

adumbrodeus

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I was about to head out to work so a few more points in regards to what Hilt said:


As far as assumptions, did you happen to read what I actually said? I specifically talked about possibilities for more or less... you might wanna reread what I actually said, I pointed to the completely reasonable assumption that there were different numbers of mafia/power roles, and pointed out that until you hit double the number of power roles or about triple the number of mafia, the odds didn't hit above 50%... But notice where I was trying to bring that line of thought, I wanted to try to figure out what the most likely number of mafia was based on how accurate they are with their kills (I doubt there's less then 3 power roles, though it IS possible).

Why are we ASSUMING they were just lucky when the odds are clearly against it? Why not at least TRY to derive something useful out of it. And a power role is a power role.


As far as saying there are no true "vanilla townies", I was VERY clear what I meant by that, why are you misrepresenting me now? I said that everyone has abilities, but the "power roles" are the people with multi-use abilities that match standard mafia roles, or stuff that occurs on death, etc. For example, "town moogle" is exactly the kind of thing I meant, Chibo has (what seems to be) a single use ability to stop one vote, a vote-blocker lite for all intents and purposes. He's still a townie, he's just got flavor-related abilities to give him something to work with.


As far as the calculation... really? You could've at least put parentheses around both, or better yet, something actually reasonably challenging.


(X + 4)12 - 3 = 12X + 45.



My comments about you being extremely inactive in general, and incredibly opportunistic about your targets, always picking on somebody when the suspicion is on still stands, you're smelling very scummy now Hilt.





As far as Joel... somebody did sort of slap him down every time he voiced a suspicion of any sort (and then somebody told him to have his own opinions). Fair enough, people defending against his accusations, but it seems more like town noobie behavior then anything else, at least at the moment.
 

DtJ Hilt

Little Lizard
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I reread all your posts (took me less then a minute), the majority of them are inactivity johns, and "I'll post later".
I made two posts in the beginning of the game shrugging off my inactivity, I admit. Since then I've made four "inactivity john" posts, in advance, when I would be at a tournament or away for a day or so. Considering I made 36 posts (not much, I know, but more than some), I don't see how this is a majority. You're exaggerating.

Even if I'm not contributing to bringing out scum (which I disagree with), numbers are extremely useful.
Finding scum is more useful. If you are bringing out scum, prove me wrong. Let's find some scum.


..also, the point of the easy math problem was to hope you would get that you can't solve anything without knowing X. And you don't.
As far as saying there are no true "vanilla townies", I was VERY clear what I meant by that, why are you misrepresenting me now? I said that everyone has abilities, but the "power roles" are the people with multi-use abilities that match standard mafia roles, or stuff that occurs on death, etc. For example, "town moogle" is exactly the kind of thing I meant, Chibo has (what seems to be) a single use ability to stop one vote, a vote-blocker lite for all intents and purposes. He's still a townie, he's just got flavor-related abilities to give him something to work with.
..what? A power role is a role with an ability. It doesn't matter if it's a one time use or not. A one shot vig is a power role. A vote changer is a power role.


..and the point of the simple math problem was to say that you can't solve whatever ratios or percentages you're looking for without knowing what X is. And since you don't, trying to base any reasoning off of it is pointless and a waste of time.
 

Omni

You can't break those cuffs.
BRoomer
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hey

how about u guys tell me who u think is scum and why
 

Omni

You can't break those cuffs.
BRoomer
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oh, and .joel stop being lazy or are you just freezing under pressure

a case was made against you and you dont know how to respond? uh how about pretending you are town and you're going to be lynched falsely and attempt to defend yourself and/or make a case about someone instead of sitting on your thumb
 

adumbrodeus

Smash Legend
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I made two posts in the beginning of the game shrugging off my inactivity, I admit. Since then I've made four "inactivity john" posts, in advance, when I would be at a tournament or away for a day or so. Considering I made 36 posts (not much, I know, but more than some), I don't see how this is a majority. You're exaggerating.
But you see my point, I haven't seen you scumhunting at all, and furthermore, the only posts that you've made that targeted... anyone, were when people were already well under siege.


Beyond that, you've contributed, well nothing. It's not even your lack of posts either, it's that the posts you make also lack content (even the ones intended to do that). I might pass it off as being a noob if you were, but we all know you're not.


As I said before, you seem either useless to the game and scummy, prove me wrong.

Finding scum is more useful. If you are bringing out scum, prove me wrong. Let's find some scum.
Calling you out on this pattern isn't scum-hunting?


..also, the point of the easy math problem was to hope you would get that you can't solve anything without knowing X. And you don't...what? A power role is a role with an ability. It doesn't matter if it's a one time use or not. A one shot vig is a power role. A vote changer is a power role.
Well, I made it obvious that those weren't the types of roles I was referring to, a difference in parlance obviously.


What I'm saying is that he gave the townies various one-shot powers, in addition to distributing standard power roles, in the same sense that if everyone's super, nobody is, but if everyone is super with some people being a lot more super then others, then you push the standard of normalcy up.


Furthermore, think about it, Gau got identified as a "cop", Cyan got identified as a "roleblocker", Swordgard got identified as a "berskerk sasquatch" (even though it's obvious he had SOMETHING). Now granted, a roleblocker isn't THAT strong, still, that combined with a selection of "flavor-based" abilities that everyone seems to have pushes him head and shoulders above the rest of the townies, hence why he's identified as a "roleblocker" instead of "moody swordsman".


..and the point of the simple math problem was to say that you can't solve whatever ratios or percentages you're looking for without knowing what X is. And since you don't, trying to base any reasoning off of it is pointless and a waste of time.
So... you're the kind of person who'd say, when somebody says "there's a 99.9999999% chance of dying if you ate this substance" you'd eat it anyway saying "you don't know whether it will happen".


Probabilities are there for one you don't know what X is in order to give you a general understanding of what the situation most likely to occur, sure it isn't perfect, but if you relies on it, the majority of the time you won't go wrong, and it's certainly better then taking shots in the dark.



hey

how about u guys tell me who u think is scum and why
As of right now my primary suspicion is on Hilt, because he's extremely inactive, but also picking on only the absolute safest targets. He hasn't done any real scumhunting which is odd for a player so experienced.


SL needs to be prodded, his general lack of posting and content makes me rather concerned about him in general, though I'm not mean enough to start a bandwagon on him when he's out sick, I think one needs to happen to prod him to a reasonable level of activity to figure out if he's scum, similar to Hilt, he's just been playing way too safe.



My standing suspicions are still there, but no developments.
 

Omni

You can't break those cuffs.
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why choose Hilt over Reflex, adumbrodeus? i think reflex has been more inactive, hasn't picked any targets, and hasn't done any scumhunting
 

adumbrodeus

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I put Reflex in the same category as SL (he's on my standing suspicions list cause I already said I think he should be lynched and is imo, the play of the day), but whereas Reflex I can see as possible just RL and other inactivity Johns, Hilt's bandwagon scum-hunting shows that he IS taking a considerable interest in the game and following it, but is only posting in completely safe ways, and I can't pass it off as possibly due to inexperience, unlike SL and Reflex, I think it's far more likely that it's calculated inactivity and fluff in order to not draw attention.


Again, the experience is what really gets me here, he's experienced enough (according to the information he posted) that if he's town-aligned he should be at least attempting to scumhunt, not just help seal people who there's already a massive case to remove.



Obviously, there are other possibilities, but out of everyone's actions to this point, his actions overall strike me as the most scummy.
 

adumbrodeus

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ebwop: By bandwagon I meant he hasn't shown any initative in all of this, just trying to push people who are already "on death row" into finally getting lynched as opposed to starting bandwagons for info.
 

Red Arremer

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What do you guys think about Shaya?

Comparatively, he posts almost as much as Hilt, but everybody seems to ignore that fact when naming the more inactive players.
In almost all of his posts, he just summarizes something we know already, or states irrelevant stuff/jokes. At least that's what I gathered.

I don't think that it makes him that suspicious considering we have other people who rarely post, but overall, he should at least be listed with the a bit more inactive people.

Same goes for Marc, but I felt most of his posts were actually useful.
 

EdreesesPieces

Smash Bros Before Hos
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I find Marc to be a very efficient poster, he helps a lot when he does post. I agree on Shaya's shadyness though, I wouldn't say he's suspicious, but grouped wtih hilt, sure.
 

adumbrodeus

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I think the opposite, though Shaya posts regularly, his posts seem to have a good deal of useful content, I also don't think he's posting safely because a lot of it is liable to stir stuff up, which happened before.

Ex: http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=10152138&postcount=745

Heavy prodding on a lot of people, the only reason why it wasn't more effective was it got basically ignored by everyone except me. He definitely put himself in a vulnerable spot.


He pressures people usefully, and his posts, while relatively rare, all seem to be in good faith, and concerned with actually going after scum, unlike Hilt.


For now, I like Shaya in this game, unless he starts acting scummy (or he dropped tells that I missed) I'd prefer to keep him.
 

Red Arremer

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I find Marc to be a very efficient poster, he helps a lot when he does post. I agree on Shaya's shadyness though, I wouldn't say he's suspicious, but grouped wtih hilt, sure.
That's exactly my point - while Marc posts as rarely as Hilt or Shaya, I haven't seen a post that wasn't helpful.

I think the opposite, though Shaya posts regularly, his posts seem to have a good deal of useful content, I also don't think he's posting safely because a lot of it is liable to stir stuff up, which happened before.
I would like to object to that.

He has made quite a few posts only including jokes or irrelevant statements respectively summaries of what happened and/or useless information.
 

Red Arremer

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Note, though:
I'm not saying that Shaya is acting specifically scummy or should be lynched, otherwise I would put a vote or at least a FoS on him, I'm merely saying that he should be considered and kept in mind.
 

adumbrodeus

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I would like to object to that.

He has made quite a few posts only including jokes or irrelevant statements respectively summaries of what happened and/or useless information.
True, but the posts that HAD content had more then enough content to put him a full head and shoulders above Hilt, and for the most part the quality of his contributions to the thread seem to have improved over time, keep in mind, I don't believe that Shaya is expirienced.



Also, fair enough, but the main reason why I'm going after Hilt isn't just that he's inactive, I think his actions are actively scummy.
 

Omni

You can't break those cuffs.
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im not feeling Shaya's game play either. as i said earlier, he blends in too well
 

adumbrodeus

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Fair enough, but let me ask you this, how experienced is he?

He struck me as a new player who's improving.



Also... I think part of the reason why he "blends in" is a lot of people are just ignoring him, notice how he said "that he likes to think he was partially responsible for the flood of info that came out", but that ended up happening because I was the only person who paid attention to him and responded.



I'm not saying it's impossible, just that he's given me no reason to suspect him.
 

Red Arremer

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adumbrodeus, I think you lack the experience to call people experienced or not, or saying they get "better".
 

Omni

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aintersting that adunrbodeus is defending someone so ahrd in their place HRMM
 

adumbrodeus

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Keep in mind I just defended joel...


Honestly, it's not as much a defense of shaya as a "he's more useful then the other people I mentioned at the moment".

I have no issue with filing him away for later, but for the reasons I stated, I find his actions to be a great deal less openly suspicious then Hilt's, and he's been much more useful then SL or Reflex.
 

DtJ Hilt

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So... you're the kind of person who'd say, when somebody says "there's a 99.9999999% chance of dying if you ate this substance" you'd eat it anyway saying "you don't know whether it will happen".
That's completely wrong and doesn't apply to what I said at all. Actually, I'm the kind of guy that if someone said there's a 1% chance of you dying from it, I'd eat it and take the risks. You're trying to say that there's a good chance of your calculations being correct. I'm saying that they probably aren't and who gives a ****

SL needs to be prodded, his general lack of posting and content makes me rather concerned about him in general, though I'm not mean enough to start a bandwagon on him when he's out sick, I think one needs to happen to prod him to a reasonable level of activity to figure out if he's scum, similar to Hilt, he's just been playing way too safe.
I'd rather see more from reflex, actually. He has a long way to go to make up for his inactivity in the first parts of the game. Johns or not, we didn't even know if he was still alive. Not even posts made as an excuse. He avoided the thread completely. I originally took my vote off of him because he was at L-1 and he should have a chance to speak before someone decides to hammer, but I'm not really feeling content with what he's given us so far. SL can have some time to get his matters sorted out as long as he gives us good enough content when he gets back.

He hasn't done any real scumhunting which is odd for a player so experienced.
LOL

Yeah, I've played a few games, more than quite a few in here, but by no means am I a top player. I really wasn't surprised Omni stated he didn't want me at Lylo, I've never been the best scum hunter and I always have a problem of losing momentum really fast in my posting sequences, and die down. So yeah, I just kinda found this funny lol. Look through some of the games I've played, haha.

Anyways

As for other people, Joel seems alright. It's looking to me like he was hesitant to give opinions that he could be attacked for and became defensive about it, as he said. Noticing how easily influenced he could be in the beginning of the game (such as when he switched his vote onto SL, when Omni merely asked him why it was on me instead), him being nervous to post too much of an opinion is understandable.

Bardull going on about Chibo and the night flavor bothers me. I don't know what to take from it though, I'm not sure how much of a scum tell it is. I hate to delve into flavor and role speak, but I'm starting to wonder if he's a lyncher. But if Chibo's role and alignment would be revealed no matter what, on swordgard's death, then that's most likely not the case, unless OS messed up, haha. Otherwise, I really don't get why he's locked into the idea. Bardull, do you particularly want Chibo lynched? I agree that his activity is terrible (it really is), however is there anything particularly scummy he's done that would cause you to want him lynched over most other people? You do realize it will end the day and have a good shot at killing a town, right?

Marc feels off to me. I want to reread over some of his posts, I'll probably have to wait until later on tomorrow (today), since it's... three in the morning. I might do the same for Edress, as I don't have a feel at all for him, which really irks me considering he definitely isn't lacking in posts.

Reflex's posts seem to be full of AtE (appeal to emotion), in fact, most of the time, it's a good majority of his post. He did push on Bardull a bit, but not much more than that, and Bardull was an easy player to jump on at the time. Starting to think Reflex might be the one to go today after all.
 

DtJ Hilt

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oh yeah unvote

You finally showed some push in scum hunting, haha. Not just towards me, but others as well, saying who you thought was and wasn't scummy (with good, non-flavor reasons lol). You're speaking the right language, now.

Plus there are others I would rather go before you, at least reflex, if he doesn't pick it up.

Omni, we answered your questions. Now, who's scum?
 

Omni

You can't break those cuffs.
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useless: reflex, chibo, adumbrodeus

im thinking today's play should be either .joel or reflex.
 

Red Arremer

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@adumbrodeus' post saying SL should be prodded: He said he's sick with the flu, give him a break.

@Omni:
I would push towards Reflex more than towards me - not only because I am talking about myself here.

First of all, speaking in merely numbers, he has 18 postings, which is about half what Scamp has (33), who is dead toDay. This is already a pretty awkward situation for Reflex. We already have pushed towards him several times, and he only responded in a few times. While it might be possible that he is indeed just busy, but his answers to town's pressure were not really satisfying, at least for me.

I can't really say what impressions I am making, on the other hand, but I can give you my motivation of being a bit less active toDay: I've just became a bit sore of trying to make cases against people because usually I just got ignored or brushed off as wrong.
 

adumbrodeus

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General strategy, finishing off Reflex seems to be the consensus, so let's just do it.

His votes are: ShadowLink84, .joel, Adumbrodeus


Granted, .joel has two votes, but he's at least attempting to be useful, maybe tomorrow.

I'll start a bandwagon against SL next game day (should give him time to recover).


That's completely wrong and doesn't apply to what I said at all. Actually, I'm the kind of guy that if someone said there's a 1% chance of you dying from it, I'd eat it and take the risks. You're trying to say that there's a good chance of your calculations being correct. I'm saying that they probably aren't and who gives a ****
The point is, I compared odds for different scenarios, and picked the most likely scenario based on what fit what actually happened. Depending on tonight's kill, should be able to make pretty good guess about the actual number of mafia and power roles, but I guess the real point is that we should care.

LOL

Yeah, I've played a few games, more than quite a few in here, but by no means am I a top player. I really wasn't surprised Omni stated he didn't want me at Lylo, I've never been the best scum hunter and I always have a problem of losing momentum really fast in my posting sequences, and die down. So yeah, I just kinda found this funny lol. Look through some of the games I've played, haha.
Except that what I'm REALLY commenting on is the lack of attempts, yeah. I understand if you do it badly from mechanical level, these things happen HOWEVER, when an experienced player like you is playing that safe, I figure something is wrong.


Bardull going on about Chibo and the night flavor bothers me. I don't know what to take from it though, I'm not sure how much of a scum tell it is. I hate to delve into flavor and role speak, but I'm starting to wonder if he's a lyncher. But if Chibo's role and alignment would be revealed no matter what, on swordgard's death, then that's most likely not the case, unless OS messed up, haha. Otherwise, I really don't get why he's locked into the idea. Bardull, do you particularly want Chibo lynched? I agree that his activity is terrible (it really is), however is there anything particularly scummy he's done that would cause you to want him lynched over most other people? You do realize it will end the day and have a good shot at killing a town, right?
To be fair (and I can't believe I'm defending bardull) the reason why he keeps going on about that is that he keeps being asked to defend his decision to claim mason, he doesn't actually seem like he's attempting to get chibo lynched anymore.
 

Overswarm

is laughing at you
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Pierce has posted so technically he isn't inactive, but we do need a replacement for him. If I do not get a replacement, he will be modkilled this coming Night. If you know of someone who would be willing to take his spot but isn't monitoring this thread, let me know


Reflex - ShadowLink84, Omni, Adumbrodeus, .joel
Marc - BarDulL
BarDulL- Reflex, Chibo
.joel- Edrees
Adumbrodeus- Marc


Deadline is set for Monday, May 3rd at 3:00 PM EST
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
 

ShadowLink84

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Ugh, I am a bit better. Unfortunately i was stuck in bed and my stomach hurts like a *****!
Anyway, let's move on shall we?


I'll start a bandwagon against SL next game day (should give him time to recover).
Hmm?
This might be interesting.
Considering the fact that much of your arguments were based off of meaningless math and baseless assumptions, I am rather interested as to what the arguments youwill present.

If anything, I actually would consider you more suspicious than Reflex.
While Reflex had been far less of help, you however have been even worse in that you didn't actually do scum hunting until Hilt prodded you for it and just went along at a different tangent.

And I have no peptobismol.

Also, shame on you for asking me to be prodded while I was out sick.
*waggles finger*



The point is, I compared odds for different scenarios, and picked the most likely scenario based on what fit what actually happened. Depending on tonight's kill, should be able to make pretty good guess about the actual number of mafia and power roles, but I guess the real point is that we should care.
I am sorry but this is just pointless to discuss.
We have had very little clues as to whom would be scum and who is not scum.
Even more so because =, ironically as it sounds, you showed that even if Mafia did not have their own investigator, they had a relatively good chance of hitting the power roles.

Frankly, it is meaningless to say, let's wait til someone gets offed to have a clue, cause frankly, we have had nothing to go on.

I cannot understand as to why you would want to bring this up when you know its useless.
We should instead pressure Reflex and then pressure those who have been less than helpful



Except that what I'm REALLY commenting on is the lack of attempts, yeah. I understand if you do it badly from mechanical level, these things happen HOWEVER, when an experienced player like you is playing that safe, I figure something is wrong.
Let us look back to what omni said previously, as well as the history in what has gone on i the game.

Day 1 no lynch.
Night 1: Dastrn offed (cop)
Day 2 mod kill.
Night2: Scamp (Town Role blocker)
Day 3: To be continued...


Now in each of those days, what contributions and information did we have?
Little to none, I am not surprised if at this point, bandwagoning anyone would end up with them flipping town, simply because we're pretty much blind with little to go on.



To be fair (and I can't believe I'm defending bardull) the reason why he keeps going on about that is that he keeps being asked to defend his decision to claim mason, he doesn't actually seem like he's attempting to get chibo lynched anymore.
I don't think its him being asked to defend his position, as to more as the WHY.
Why say "I AM MASON!" that helps mafia and gives them potential targets.

There is also the fact that , he could be lying couldn't he?

Why would you defend him if there is the possibility that what he said was a lie to simply remove suspicion from himself?

After all, wouldn't the easiest way of protecting yourself from a lynch and mafia is by calling out that you're a mason?

Frankly, I am more concerned with the fact that you came to his defense, rather than attempting to pressure him further.


b]FOS: Adumbrodeus[/b]

I'm a double's genius
 

adumbrodeus

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Lol, SL you probably should've paid a bit more attention to the specifics of my comments, as well as what a Bandwagon actually is.

Also, shame on you for asking me to be prodded while I was out sick.
*waggles finger*
Again, you really need to read... I meant next game day.


Even more so because =, ironically as it sounds, you showed that even if Mafia did not have their own investigator, they had a relatively good chance of hitting the power roles.
What? No. Reread.

There is also the fact that , he could be lying couldn't he?

Why would you defend him if there is the possibility that what he said was a lie to simply remove suspicion from himself?

After all, wouldn't the easiest way of protecting yourself from a lynch and mafia is by calling out that you're a mason?

Frankly, I am more concerned with the fact that you came to his defense, rather than attempting to pressure him further.


b]FOS: Adumbrodeus[/b]
Of course, but I'm saying that if it's suspicious it's because of the initial claim, not because he keeps bringing it up again and again and again. Similar to how people keep forcing me to defend my calculations, people just keep bringing up the topic and forcing him to defend himself, and while I disagree strongly with his position, and I still consider him suspicious, applying additional suspicion because he seems hellbent on lynching chibo is... foolish.
 

Red Arremer

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If we can get 2 more people voting for Reflex, we'll have one weight less on our feet.
Hilt, Bardull, Chibo? Anyone?
 

Pierce7d

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Vote: Marc

I'm interested in your insight Marc.

I'm not out of this game by now, and I've put everything else behind me, so if it's still okay, I'd like to jump in. I promise I'll try hard to stay active. I have read the entire thread.
 

Omni

You can't break those cuffs.
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yea uh @ pierce

1.) who did u replace i forget
2.) what about marc's insight are you interested in
3.) why are u voting marc over other players like reflex or .joel
4.) finally, votes are suppose to be in bold in order for it to count
5.) who are ur scum partners
 
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