Earlier I claimed that I was almost positive that I knew the identities of three members of the mafia, and now I will offer a complete explanation as to why. To begin, I ask you all to understand the primary things I was looking for.
The first criteria I was looking for is concerted action, while townies obviously worked together on a variety of things for obvious reasons, and townies unknowingly work with Mafia, these people had a tendency to do things together at a deeper level, things that often required some level of planning.
The second thing I was looking for was purely anti-town actions, I assume that there's no reason to appear to be mafia to the mafia since mafia generally knows all members of the mafia. Therefore, any action that could only benefit the mafia I considered
The third thing I was looking for was simple incorrect information, the Mafia has an incentive to confuse the townspeople so they in ways which are ineffectual, either for the wrong person or be disorganized and not have effective lynching.
So to begin, I know we all remember this incident:
That's IF you are one of the "good guys." If you are a "bad guy," obviously your role is to confuse the "good guys" into believing you're not a "bad guy." A "bad guy's" true objective is, of course, to trick the "good guys" into lynching other "good guys" whilst getting rid of an additional "good guy" when night comes around.
I'm curious as to why you omitted this information, Omni.
FoS: Omni
basically its like cops and robbers
there are a lot of good guys and a small amount of bad guys in this game (us). the goal is to figure out who are the bad guys (who work as a group) and lynch them without lynching the good guys (who work as individuals normally). during the time period of a "Day" which is normally 7-14 days IRL it is the good guys job to figure out who the bad guys are. then you lynch then by voting them
if u have a power or a character, DONT reveal. dont feed any information that would be vital for the mafia to know. if you have a brain you should know this.
so thats the gist of it. find the bad guys.
are you asking why i didn't give a person advice on how to be a good "bad guy" considering he could he could be mafia himself?
there's a lot of information that was omitted since explaining mafia in a single paragraph isn't sufficient.
bad FoS is bad.
I have covered various games, and I'm familiar with the general day one doo-dahs.
Your explanation seems...folly. I -just- explained the jist of mafia's objective in less than a paragraph, yet you contest that it can't be done despite me having already done so. You even quoted me.
It doesn't make sense to respond to someone's question, "how do I play," by only explaining to them what town's objective is. It would make sense to explain both objectives.
Your explanation of why you omitted information regarding mafia's objective doesn't hold any weight. It smells scummy.
you're grasping at straws on one of the first actual useful posts of the day.
i contest that i summarized the game but did not full cover the game in its entirety. that's like me jumping in after your explanation and finding your suspicious for not covering other fine/basic points that could help Sky be more acquainted with the game.
i explained what to do if you're a good guy. by process of elimination the role of the bad guy is pretty clear.
so again, nothing smells scummy. you're just not satisfied with my summary omitting to teach him how a mafia player plays. get over it, guy. you're poking inaccurately and tho your argument may have some weight it would be unhealthy to start pointing fingers at people are who posting and being helpful when there are still players who havent posted
Bardull began the game with a very interesting tactic, accusing a player with no good cause whatever, taking a comment about the gameplay mechanics to mean that a particular person was a member of the mafia, and then defending said comment almost literally to the death. His later claim, that he was attempting to start the gameplay, rings rather hollow, because as town there is no incentive to begin in that manner, because the only possible result is to cause confusion and develop suspicion for the person who begins it.
This leads me to two possible conclusions:
1. He was playing a poor Mafia game and attempting to sow confusion and have an innocent lynched but instead resulted in painting a target one his chest. I would assume that this is due to his inexperience.
2. He and the other mafia members developed this as a plan and then had him back off, that way when he is possibly revealed as Mafia, Omni can say, "well the mafia accused me, so it's obvious that I'm not Mafia". By the same token, if Omni gets found out first, Bardull can say, "look, I was right, you guys thought I was just being stupid, but I knew" and claim to be a townie from that prospective.
At this point I merely had my suspicions of both of them but I chose not to voice them in order to gather more evidence, and while this suggests that it's own of the two, it does not prove it, on it's own.
Now for swordgard, I think we can all tell what his posting restriction is, but what I'm more concerned about is the behavior that accompanied it, he was extremely aggressive in how he conducted himself, and if you notice, not only uses his votes to accuse, but also makes side accusations, such as here:
TBH, I think if mafia wanted to kill reflex it could have easily been done due to the high number of people that voted for him. This including 3 people I do not think are mafia. Thus imo mafia was protecting reflex. Mafia has no reason to get inactives lynched actually on first day. Mafia could have had easier targets imo. Random accusations? I don't know, seems pretty darn suspicious to me that 2 people "just missed" lynching out reflex and then reflex suddenly becomes active after the 1st night despite him being the main target in day 1 at the end. I'd also be very cautious of people that were "afk for tourneys".
I got nothing against thee but:
unvote
Vote: Adumbrodeus
But what I find most interesting is who the first person to jump in to defend him was, Omni.
Don't like .joel's add-on vote to Swordgard at all.
Swordgard's random voting makes a lot of sense; I highly doubt most of you looked into it. I would be overly defensive too if I had some kind of restriction that I wasn't able to reveal and no one looked into it after I hinted people to do so.
Furthermore, he made an implicit accusation as opposed simply saying, "you're all confused, this is obviously a posting restriction" which is the logical reaction to such a statement, unless of course, you have an interest in sowing confusion in the town.
As a further example of concerted action, omni and swordgard in two subsequent posts both attack me and place votes on me. This is another example of concerted action. Note what he says here.
this post smells.
1.) you're not taking any risk by simply stating what the mafia already knows and what town should be aware of. what you're explaining is called WIFOM. power roles may tend to lie low and not attract attention while power roles may try to stand out in order to remove the impression that they are power roles. it's impossible to distinguish from both a mafia and a town side what kind of role is given based on a person's activity.
2.) "i'd be highly suspicious of people who were strongly encouraging votes for multiple inactives" is a dumb or scum statement. if you're just being dumb realize that inactivity is always anti-town since it reduces the amount of information received. if you're scum then this statement is an attempt to relinquish suspicion onto players who are attempt to promote activity (pro-town) without pointing a direct fingers. it's an indirect assault
not comfortable with your "analysis of what mafia was thinking"
Vote: Adumbrodeus
He specifically said, "this post smells", and I'll come back to that in a little while, but for now, I'd like to point out that the post that he said "smells" was not specifically targeting omni, but instead was targeting people who were heavily pushing voting off inactives with abandon. IIRC the idea was first proposed by Marc and certainly did not lack it's supporters. So why was omni the only person who responded to the accusation? Because I was targeting swordgard perhaps?
Going back to this "this post smells" point, when he starts to realize that his position of accusation isn't particularly strong, he begins to call it a bandwagon:
why? this is a bad meta to base what it is scummy and what is not since it is a legit reason for enough players for it to hold weight.
dont look at influences outside of the game too much. inactivity in this game has been severe and pretty legit due to crashboards acting up. instead concentrate on the content of people's posts and their interactions with other players
all aboard the adumbrodeus wagon
When he CLEARLY indicated that he called it because he considers my post HIGHLY suspicious. Bandwagon is much better PR, and he can break it off when he believes it's convenient, which he does.
i think its obvious why i backed off but itd be nice to hear other people's opinions on it
Furthermore, we are able to see how swordgard essentially says the same thing, more concerted action, posting information that we already know when the argument was that it morphed into a bandwagon when it was actually a matter of suspicion.
Bandwagons are used to gain info.
unvote
vote: Hilt
Again, this seems extremely suspicious, given the context, why are they all working together?
Now, next point, as soon as I posted that I believe I know 3 mafia members, two of the three people I am concerned with begin this exchange extremely quickly, as if to distance themselves.
Well me getting lynched means that you get the same information anyway, so if the mafia chooses not to kill me, lynching me is a reasonable option.
And yes, I will have the essay up then soon, I intend to indict exactly 3 people as mafia, and once I get confirmed as trustworthy, I hope you guys will be willing to kill them off, in order.
Edrees my bad on the FoS I thought I had found something about thee but was wrong.
unvote
vote Bardull
I do too feel like Omni is being very controlling overall, so has bardull a bit tbh. A bandwagon would sure be helpful atm to get some info. I'l have to say that so far mafia has been playing very well, we still have no clear idea of whom it could be.
Do you have a problem with what I've said so far, Swordgard?
I have a problem with what multiple people have been saying, yesterday and today.
unvote
vote: Omni
Finally, false information:
I am surprised nobody noticed this before. Please post the reasoning thou made adumbrodeus btw.
Omni,Bardull, Marc and .joel all have the same restriction, and none of them seem surprised or even mentionned it when they saw others post the same way. For some reason they all post toDay and Yesterday, which is really awkward. Here are all the posts so far with these:
For .joel :
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=10059731&postcount=427
For bardull:
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=10052085&postcount=347
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=10029239&postcount=189
For marc:
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=10008606&postcount=131
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=9994333&postcount=77
For Omni:
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=10059573&postcount=422
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=10046744&postcount=263
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=10051907&postcount=342
Alright, now for the current possibilities:
A) They all had the same posting restriction and noticed but decided just to "wink" at each other. Very unlikely.
B) Marc had the original posting restriction, all the rest started doing it for the lulz without anyone else noticing. Also very unlikely.
C) They are in 2 by 2 parties (mason-like) and decided not to reveal to everyone else in front of the other team in other to stay off radar. Very unlikely too since at any moment the other team could reveal the posting restriction.
D) They are a group of independants. Unlikely that a group of independants would be as big as 4 people out of 15.
E) Mafia consists of 4 people, which is a lot for 15 people. Thus, they were given a slight nerf on a posting restriction.
Better explain thy-self and fast. I personally say we lynch one, if he turns out mafia or independent we will have our answer.
unvote
vote: bardull
I consider the explanation that he merely did not know the term to be extremely weak since earlier he claimed to be a vet. This is especially true because it's an easily revealable falsehood. This seemed to be more then anything else, a ploy for the players in question to distance themselves, tossing in additional non-mafia players to make it more effective.
scum = anyone who isn't town = indy or mafia
i've already explained why i think he is scum. i have no explanation as to why i think he would be either indy or mafia because all that matters is that i believe he is scum.
also, i believe one or two people jumped on his weak argument bandwagon attempt now that i think about it. i should go back and see who those people were.
Next, I have this statement by omni, a mafia vet should know this again. Independents aren't necessarily scum, but there are brands of independents that are scum, the independents that oppose the town and have a kill are scum (or can recruit, eg cult), and while town gets no particular advantage from non-scum independents (like survivor) or even detriments (Jester), they do not fulfill the town's win conditions and essentially amount to a wasted lynch at best, depending on the game variation lynching a Jester can end the game (if there is a jester, we don't know the other implications of his win conditions being met). I find it highly suspicious that you equate Mafia and independents, and people assuming that only benefits Mafia.
Now, I don't believe any of these are actually proof positive, however I DO believe that the combination of these circumstances are enough to strongly suggest that these 3 people are members of the mafia and need to be lynched. It is however possible that there is another Mafia member.
With that...
Vote: Omni
