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Based on the special edition box, the only remaining characters are Ken + one final newcomer.

Thinkaman

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Sakurai actually sent requests out to well known composers in the industry he liked, and those that responded positively to working on Ultimate's soundtrack were allowed to make the arrangements THEY wanted. Neither Sakurai nor Capcom nor Nintendo designated the amount of remixes. That's why it's so uneven: Castlevania, Megaman, and Street Fighter got a lot of arranges because that's what many composers chose to remix.

You can read about Sakurai's thoughts on Ultimate's Soundtrack here, it's pretty interesting:

https://sourcegaming.info/2018/09/0...a-great-game-sakurais-famitsu-column-vol-562/
Correct--the raw number is not itself a measure of studio friendship or anything of the sort.

But the degree to which Capcom was forthcoming with rights speaks highly to the relationship nonetheless.

For contrast, I'm sure no shortage of composers would have loved to make Final Fantasy remixes. But......
 

Fell God

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Sakurai has actually written in his column about the design of Minecraft multiple times, including calling it one of the rare games he will go back to. (Especially while exercising on a bike.) He spoke strongly of the Nintendo Switch port.
Wh-what...? M-Minecraft? M-m-multiple times? This shouldn't sound so weird to me...
 
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TeenGirlSquad

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Yes yes, I realize I was mixing up leaks now. But, er...Minecraft? Sure it is (or, was) a massive gaming phenomenon, and it is on Switch, but wouldn't that require some Microsoft involvement? If they're getting into talks with Microsoft, wouldn't they aim a little higher than just a trophy when one of their characters is a huge request?
Yes. If Microsoft is actually contributing Minecraft content, you can pretty much bet your ass they are contributing a character. Microsoft is not the kind of company that you would contact just to throw in some trophies, or even a stage or an assist. So if Vergeben is right, then there are huge implications, even if it doesn't necessarily mean Banjo.
 

lizard1929

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So do I park my hype train now or keep going? (I am not interested in a poke rep and a ken echo)
I will still buy Smash Ult for the previously announced newcomers.
(or)
(36 characters on both sides makes 72!! jk)

On a serious note the current picture is obviously not final (Isabelle), which suggests they can easily replace the picture in the future so I wouldn't call this theory definite. Gaps in the final roster have always shrunk and expanded with newcomers just look at the main art work.
 

Ze Diglett

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I'm calling it now: this theory is lemons. The box image is a digital mockup and clearly a placeholder image since Isabelle isn't even on it, and treating a placeholder mockup as gospel for how many newcomers are left is just ridiculous if you ask me.
 

Venus of the Desert Bloom

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I have read only a bit about this in the discussion thread but it seems both sensible but also like Nintendo ****ed it up on their own which leads me to think there is more to meet the eye. I don’t take Nintendo as fools but also recognize oversight as a typical problem. It seems like too big a problem to overlook and they know what Smash fans are saying. They have been paying attention to that aspect since Brawl.

Thinkaman Thinkaman ‘s logic is sound though and I agree with him within the context to this box art. Outside of that though, I’m not sure as there are potential it’s and buts to be had. I’m not quite sold on it but if it’s all true, I think Thinkaman hit in right on the head.

I do think that a large amount of negative reception to this is because “favorite x character” hasn’t been shown and Isabelle, as a non-echo Fighter” got in. Which is silly IMP. Don’t lay his on that poor little puppy-girl nor supporters who are happy she is in.

I didnt get all the characters I wanted and I highly doubt I will but I’m fine with this roster - even if it stops as Isabelle. Everyone is back. We have Ridley. We have Inklings. We have K Rool. And we have Simon plus several echo characters.

It’s a great roster.

I can't deny I'm not legit scared this might be true. It could totally be a placeholder, but who knows.

However, something that REALLY scares me is that Vergeben's prediction about the new Squeenix rep is likely true, yet there's only room for two more characters here.
If Geno ends up being ****ing pre-order DLC, there's going to be riots in the goddamn streets. People will call for Sakurai's head if that happens. And if this boxart theory is true, it may very well end up happening.
That thought scares me immensely. I am legit afraid at what might happen to this community if pre-order DLC is confirmed and it's of a highly requested fighter.
Really I just hope that Dante leak predicting Isabelle for the next Direct is true, and even with this boxart thing it probably is.
No it wouldn’t. People would just learn accept it. Don’t be so over-dramatic.
 
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I'm pretty neutral on this issue for now (i need to assimilate all the info before making my mind).

All i can safely say for now is that the front of the box is probably not the final render, there's a typo in the french translation:

DnFzd1BU0AEN7Oj.jpg

''Inlcus Jue'' Jue is not a word in french and the word 'Game' translates to 'Jeu'

Also, usually ''Pro controller'' is translated too...
6881041-l.jpg


This is not meant to prove or disprove anything, just wanted to add these informations to the pile.
 

TeenGirlSquad

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I'm calling it now: this theory is lemons. The box image is a digital mockup and clearly a placeholder image since Isabelle isn't even on it, and treating a placeholder mockup as gospel for how many newcomers are left is just ridiculous if you ask me.
As said before, it's obviously a digital mockup either way, that doesn't affect OP's logic. The theory is that this is actually an edited version of the final render, which is supported by the very deliberate organization of the characters (in alternating sets of nine) and the fact that it seems to take into account a character that has not even been revealed yet (Ken). So while it's possible that it's not the final render, it's looking likely.

Another thing I would say is that, while I have tried to stay optimistic in this thread, my optimism is only based on educated guesses. It's completely possible that Ken and one more unique newcomer is all we're getting, and that's definitely what the box suggests (assuming that all characters are on those two sides of the box, and the render will not be altered in any meaningful way). It's not what I personally believe, but it's possible. So I would still encourage people to brace themselves for the "worst case". Remember the last two hype cycles.
 
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Venus of the Desert Bloom

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My question to all the negative Nacy’s here...

Why would this be such a bad thing?


Because I fail to see how it is.
 
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lizard1929

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My question to all the negative Nacy’s here...

Why would this be such a bad thing?


Because I fail to see how it is.
Hype is supposed to build up, not falter at the finish line.
So far we had:
Inkling
Ridley (Daisy) ((E3 Full reveal of games name))
Simon, Krool (Richter, Chrome, Dark Samus) ((smash direct))
Isabelle ((being fair this was a general direct like Inklings))
Pokémon (Ken) ((most likely a smash direct))

The final direct if the box reveal is true feels like it pales in comparison to previously shown content. The marketing may have blown up in early with August being the last big push.
(that final smash direct better reveal spirits as a cool new mode to help compensate but we have nothing to go off of in the way of leaks)
In saying all that the game is still crazy impressive.

(I am gonna regret this post soon)
 

StormC

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Hype is supposed to build up, not falter at the finish line.
Wouldn't be the first time this happened with Smash... or the second or third.

I personally don't believe the boxart theory, but even still.
 

SmashBro99

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I feel like if we only had a few fighters left he would have spread out reveals to keep us hyped for the months to come. Also i dont really want Shadow but with him being replaced as an AT hes sure to be a fighter too.
 

Smashoperatingbuddy123

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While possible true here’s the probelms

1. This is not the final art the characters boxes could be smaller could rearrange differently and probably not have all the playable on the box even on the full the evidence for this is the game comes with it.

2 quite a few characters outside ken and incineroar are very likely in the most obvious is shadow the hedgehog since knuckles is probably taking his place geno for fan request so lots of possible but DLC is the fix but only if the echos of those are free

3 there’s no way to telll whos on the other side of the box and if there’s any on the behind of the box

4 https://www.ssbwiki.com/Super_Smash_Bros._Ultimate we are at 72 characters which is what this theory is and smash down 74 is not divisible by three but that’s a long shot since it would very well end when not even Steven anymore

5 October will probably do a Lucina/Robin esc trailer (probably incineroar and ken since they both connected to fire) and that would still leave November for probably a ultimate edition of 50 fact extravaganza which is probably where they will show the rest of the characters I don’t think that sounds like only two more characters to me
 
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Venus of the Desert Bloom

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Hype is supposed to build up, not falter at the finish line.
So far we had:
Inkling
Ridley (Daisy) ((E3 Full reveal of games name))
Simon, Krool (Richter, Chrome, Dark Samus) ((smash direct))
Isabelle ((being fair this was a general direct like Inklings))
Pokémon (Ken) ((most likely a smash direct))

The final direct if the box reveal is true feels like it pales in comparison to previously shown content. The marketing may have blown up in early with August being the last big push.
(that final smash direct better reveal spirits as a cool new mode to help compensate but we have nothing to go off of in the way of leaks)
In saying all that the game is still crazy impressive.

(I am gonna regret this post soon)
Certainly hype is important and characters being hype but that doesn’t necessarily mean that character reveals have to be the most hype inducing near the end. Was Olimar? Was Shulk? Many fighting games don’t end in a high note near the end of the pre-launch period. Joker was the last character revealed for Injustice 2 but it was Hellboy and TMNT that brought the most hype in the DLC. Android 21 was for Dragon Ball FighterZ before DLC. I think FANG was the last character for SFV before the updates.

I disagree that the last revealed character has to have the most hype and I think that’s a fan-made rule. However, Smash did do the 100 Fact Extravaganza to hype up the crowd plus Mewtwo so there’s that.
 

IceKitsune

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This looks to be a pretty solid theory. While I think it might be a bit premature to call it based on a mock-up of the box that we can't see the other side too I would say this is likely. I just love how everyone freaking out about a character not being in or the hype dying at the end is completely forgetting about DLC characters that will happen.

Nintendo would have to be completely insane not to have at least one round of DLC characters (and other things like stages) waiting for post-launch. Look at what they are doing with Splatoon 2 that game has been out for over a year now and just got new free DLC to it. More characters than those 2 (if its true of course) are coming don't worry too much about it.
 
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Guybrush20X6

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I wouldn't object to two more being the f8nal number but I think it's just a mock-up that is being read too much in to
 

ThatOneAnon

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This theory isn’t too widespread yet and if it’s true everyone will be depressed. Again, if. I’m still inclined to disbelieve in this theory even though every argument against it has been shot down since I don’t believe any leaks at all on principle (except for Vergeben and that’s only because he’s been insanely accurate) (also that Dante leak because I really really want Dante and it has some credence now)
The problem with people telling others to lower their expectations is that most people simply can’t. The hype’s built up too much now.
Also Ken and Incineroar being the final newcomers and Nintendo’s online service are two announcements that would likely make some people swear off Nintendo forever, DLC or not. Remember, there are some people who are extremely against DLC of any kind (and rightfully so).
 

Smashoperatingbuddy123

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True to not all that matters is I got Ridley and King k rool

But there is one point I mean only one point I can give it and that’s it

Going back to the smashdown theory

72 is divisible by 2,3,4 so all characters unlocked would be able to use all of them and that could lead to 12 dlc since 84 is the next one that can be divisible by those numbers
 

Heatswave

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Actually, in the smash direct the Miis weren't included in Smashdown, so we only have 71 feasible characters for that with the boxart theory... It doesn't really add up.
 
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Thinkaman

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Let's be perfectly clear:

The number of characters in the game was determined by one and only one thing: How many characters they could get done in time.

Not to be a multiple of whatever for Smashdown. Not for the CSS grid, not for a marketing number, not to line up on a box.

Every Smash game has had cut characters who didn't quite get finished, and every Smash game has had characters who were almost cut:
:ganondorfmelee::jigglypuff::toonlink::wolf::4bowserjr: (just the ones Sakurai has publicly acknowledged)

All of the other stuff we're discussing is stuff downstream that is informed by the final roster decision, which we can safely say was locked several months ago.

In other words, don't think "It has to be a number that fits in a grid", think "How would this number be arranged in a grid?"
 
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Heatswave

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Agreed, as discussed before, there are possible gameplay solutions for an uneven amount of characters in Smashdown, especially as the mode is probably available form the start and not unlocked by unlocking all characters...
 
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Fatmanonice

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Vergeben said Ken is a lock.

Ken is literally the mother of all echoes.

It makes sense that he would be saved for last, as far as echoes go.

Sakurai has continued to cultivate the relationship with Capcom, as evidenced by the unexplained abundance of new Street Fighter music.
This. Ryu and Ken are the most iconic duo in gaming aside from Mario and Luigi and Sonic and Tails. Aside from this, Ken is pretty much the patron saint of clone characters in fighting games. Even without Verg, Ken would have been incredibly likely for these reasons alone.
 

Fatmanonice

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inb4 the actual Echo is Medusa, who I would happily take over a generic martial artist.
I'd honestly prefer this but Ken's on a whole different level and most definitely at the front of the line when it comes to Echo priority. Not really consequential in the grand scheme of things but, if this wound up being true, the last newcomer would be #69 and it really makes me wonder if Nintendo would deliberately set themselves up like that.
 

Thinkaman

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the last newcomer would be #69 and it really makes me wonder if Nintendo would deliberately set themselves up like that.
On the "list of things that concern a Japanese developers deciding a fighting game roster", I'm pretty sure English sexual memes are about as low on the list as possible.
 

Deus

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The only thing that would surprise me about this being true would be the lack of a WTF newcomer. Where's my announcement for the ball(?) from Pong being a playable character?!
 

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If winds up being Geno, I'll finally feel vindicated for all the online harassment and hate mail I got during the Brawl days. It'd be like everything in the universe lined up to prescribe those people an extra hardy dose of ****, *****, and succon.
 

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OOOOOOOrrr that image on that side of the box is just a placeholder and might be adjusted as new characters are announced. They adjust the banner with every character added sooooo...
 

SonicMario

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While possible true here’s the probelms

1. This is not the final art the characters boxes could be smaller could rearrange differently and probably not have all the playable on the box even on the full the evidence for this is the game comes with it.
It seems to be a conscious choice though to have a set of 9 for each grouping

LEFT SIDE (Not shown in the image)
| 1 2 3 4 4e 5
6 7 8 |

|17 18 19
20 21 21e 22 23 24 |

| 32 33-35 36 37 38 39
40 41 42 |

|54 55 56
57 58 59 60 60e? 61 |

RIGHT SIDE (The one actually showing in the image)
9 10 11 12 13 13e
14 15 16 |

|25 25e 26
27 28 28e 29 30 31|

|43 44 45 46 47 48
49 50 51-53 |

|62 63 64
65 66 66e 67 68 69? |

2 quite a few characters outside ken and incineroar are very likely in the most obvious is shadow the hedgehog since knuckles is probably taking his place geno for fan request so lots of possible but DLC is the fix but only if the echos of those are free
Repeat after me: Never think any character is a shoo-in

But yeah there's still DLC potentially for characters like those.

3 there’s no way to telll whos on the other side of the box and if there’s any on the behind of the box
If what's on the other side isn't the other half of the characters. Then either for some reason the characters we do see are all that's left are for some reason the only characters we see which would be kinda odd or only some of the characters on the other side. And yeah maybe a couple more could be behind or even on the bottom of the box. But I don't know, I think the symmetry is purposeful here.

4 https://www.ssbwiki.com/Super_Smash_Bros._Ultimate we are at 72 characters which is what this theory is and smash down 74 is not divisible by three but that’s a long shot since it would very well end when not even Steven anymore
There will probably be a method Smash Down has for when there's a number not divisibly by 2, 3, and 4 especially when you consider you might be able to use the mode even if you haven't unlocked all the characters yet.

5 October will probably do a Lucina/Robin esc trailer (probably incineroar and ken since they both connected to fire) and that would still leave November for probably a ultimate edition of 50 fact extravaganza which is probably where they will show the rest of the characters I don’t think that sounds like only two more characters to me
There's more then just the characters to talk about. I'm thinking if this theory is true. Ken and Incineroar (Or whoever else it ends up being. But Ken seems the absolute certainty) are revealed in an October Smash direct and it will be more like the E3 direct which only had one echo fighter and one newcomer reveal.

And if there is a 50 facts extravaganza kind of thing it won't have secret characters to reveal like it did for Bowser Jr. It could very well though announce the first DLC character like when they showed Mewtwo. But there's a chance they also put that combined with the potential October Smash direct. There may not be a 50 Facts Extravaganza for Smash Ultimate. November might be filled of Pokemon because of Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu and Eevee


Hope I don't get jumped on for defending the possibility. I'd love to be wrong about this, believe me. But for now I'm going to head into this thinking it is true. So that either way I won't be among the disappointed. I'll be happy if there's indeed more then two characters left. But I'm also perfectly content with the roster as is.
 

The DanMan051

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Actually, in the smash direct the Miis weren't included in Smashdown, so we only have 71 feasible characters for that with the boxart theory... It doesn't really add up.
In Smash 4, Mii Fighters didn't appear on the CSS if you hadn't made any-- this was used back in the day to try and discredit the ESRB leak. It's very likely just a symptom of an in-development build; it's not like there was a perfectly even amount of newcomers shown on the CSS while demoing it, after all.

Also, a general reminder: remember when Amazon leaked basically everything from the 50 Fact Extravaganza because they updated the product description about a week in advance? There's precedence for this here.
 

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Who's to say there's nothing on the back of the box or that some characters simply arn't on the box?
Or that this is merely a mock-up featuring only things already revealed?

For all we know, we could have a Smash Direct next month that completely contradicts this speculation.

In the end, it doesn't matter either way, we'll know all the facts at release and before then we can't even play the game either way. Plus, DLC is inevitable in a title like this.
 

Turnips and Daisies.

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Who's to say there's nothing on the back of the box or that some characters simply arn't on the box?
Or that this is merely a mock-up featuring only things already revealed?

For all we know, we could have a Smash Direct next month that completely contradicts this speculation.

In the end, it doesn't matter either way, we'll know all the facts at release and before then we can't even play the game either way. Plus, DLC is inevitable in a title like this.
I don't think DLC is really as inevitable as we think.
 

Arthur97

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I mean, this is a pretty subtle hint, made very inadvertently by someone rather far down the chain.

FAR bigger accidental slips were made by the dev team directly during Brawl, multiple times!


As for "why Ken", Ken is an extremely iconic character who is Ying and Yang with Ryu. As the original echo, he has co-stared in every Street Fighter game alongside Ryu, offering a very similar moveset with a few key tweaks that radically change his playstyle. (Though honestly, Smash 4 Ryu plays more like "Ken" than "Ryu"...)

As an old school Street Fighter pro, Sakurai has an intimate awareness and understanding of Ken's design. Hell, Ken probably inspired the clones back in Melee.
That doesn't mean he should or will be in. As far as I know, he has little support which goes against the general theme. In the end, you can't know, so don't act like he's a sure thing (as the title of this very thread does). You also seem pretty sure about it being Pokemon for the other one. and even seem to go as far as to give a specific pokemon just not in the title. I can believe we're only getting two more characters in the base game, but the Ken part is what really gets me. Could be worse (could be Jeane or Zack), but why? And why are you so confident in the specifics?
 
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**Gilgamesh**

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Please look at the side of the box. People have been discussing it on twitter, but missing the significance of the ordering. Here, forgive my color-coding:

View attachment 164338

I took the liberty of adding Isabelle. Do you see the pattern? Here, let me help:

View attachment 164339

The fighters are in groups of 9, presented exactly the same as on the website and all other promotional materials. (Echoes in order, Miis and PT as single entries) The promotional images used on this box were clearly taken from a source location in which they were in sets/rows of 9.

This means we know what the other 4 sets of 9 looks like:

View attachment 164340

It's all very clean and works perfectly. With two big implications.

There is no room for an echo in any of the first 3 sets of 9. No Dixie, no Shadow, no whatever. It would throw everything off, and make the side of the box we can see look different.

But there is exactly one unaccounted for space in the final set of 9. Somewhere, there is an echo between Palutena and Cloud.

This is the other half of the box:

View attachment 164341

And of course, there is only room for one blank space after Isabelle, so that leaves one new character--possibly the Gen 7 Pokemon Vergeben alluded to.

----------

It's always possible that this is just a box, and the product designers chose to only show off 72 character slots arbitrarily.

But realistically, it looks like this is our roster.
Noo
Noooo!
Not you too Thinkaman! Have you too given into these radical theories that happens every time?
 
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Hey guys. I've come from the future were Ultimate has been released, and the final newcomer is Ragna from Blazblue. My proof you ask? The color of the special edition box is red, and Ragna's favorite color is red, therefore he is in Smash. BOOM! You just got leaked! /s
 

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Hey guys. I've come from the future were Ultimate has been released, and the final newcomer is Ragna from Blazblue. My proof you ask? The color of the special edition box is red, and Ragna's favorite color is red, therefore he is in Smash. BOOM! You just got leaked! /s
Pft no way. From the future I came back from, the last red character was Sol Badguy.
 
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