Based on the special edition box, the only remaining characters are Ken + one final newcomer.

[Amiibo Doctor]

It's obviously not Ragna: Chunky Kong is going to be the last one.

 

[**Gilgamesh**]

Sakurai himself said after the reveal of Chrom and Dark Samus and Richter that there would be "a few more" Echo fighters. (Specifically, Echo fighters). Ken is just one, he can't be "a few". I do think we're only getting 1-2 more newcomers, but with 3 months to go until launch I can't imagine only 1 more Echo since they're so easy to make and we've been getting a lot of them.

No, Sakurai said for characters in general not just echo and this was before K rool or Isabelle reveal. Two more sounds plausible.

 

[WertQuadNine]

Wow, normally I'd say the classic "never judge the roster based on patterns" but this makes too much sense to me. I'm not gonna say I believe this 100%, but I'm leaning that ways :/

 

[Freecs]

I don’t understand where the evidence for Ken is coming from but whatever.

 

[thirsty-pocket]

I don’t understand where the evidence for Ken is coming from but whatever.

Because Corin was pushed out of the group of 9 that they should be in. Meaning somebody in that group got an Echo. And of those characters, Ryu is the most likely, especially with Verg's leak claiming Ken is in the game.

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

Frankly, I feel that Akuma would be a more interesting addition than Ken. There's always the chance that they'll both get in, but it's probably not too likely.

 

[TreeBranch]

Is it not possible they simply miscounted the left side? I mean, they were probably just adding the characters based off the website, and they didn't even have to show the left side, so they had no reason to be totally accurate. Maybe instead of a character in that missing spot, they plan to have a smash logo or some other random piece of information. The people designing this box don't have any reason to know the full roster. Their job was to make a mock-up of the box that could easily be changed in the future. I have a hard time believing Sakurai gave out the full roster to the designers of this box, especially with how secretive they are apparently being with it. I suppose there's always the chance this does lead to something, but I'm not buying it. Only having two new character reveals seems so disappointing, especially considering we still have 3 months left and one would be an echo.

 

[Amiibo Doctor]

I'm pretty neutral on this issue for now (i need to assimilate all the info before making my mind).

All i can safely say for now is that the front of the box is probably not the final render, there's a typo in the french translation:

View attachment 164398
''Inlcus Jue'' Jue is not a word in french and the word 'Game' translates to 'Jeu'

Also, usually ''Pro controller'' is translated too...
View attachment 164400

This is not meant to prove or disprove anything, just wanted to add these informations to the pile.

Honestly, guys, I can't look at a mistranslation like this one and buy into this box being the final product with all the characters. If they're still working out translations of what they know they'll have for a fact, then there's no reason to assume they've worked out what characters they might have.

 

[ProfPeanut]

There's a certain amount of sense that this makes, as well as a certain amount that doesn't.

Pros
- It fits the box comfortably, and there's little reason they'd have used such an elegant design if it was meant to be a fakeout. Any more newcomers would ruin the pattern unless the final tally was 80, or 84; you'd need an even number to split the roster between both sides, and the quotient would also have to be divisible such that it could be laid out in a perfect grid.
- It coincides with both the stage theory (that 103 is really the final number, since it was so specific) and the music theory (that franchises with upcoming newcomers aren't getting music tracks until their newcomers appear). There's been a natural pushback from people against anything that deconfirms their remaining top picks, but three separate theories supporting each other is hard to ignore.
- It'd leave the total unique newcomer number at 6 (if not 5.5, if you're still particularly petty about Isabelle). When Sakurai first said that there wouldn't be "too many newcomers", estimates at the time rounded this between 4 and 6 newcomers. There has always been little reason to believe that Sakurai only meant a number merely slightly below the current lowest newcomer amount by that statement, besides making wishful excuses for one's own candidates.
- Smash has never exactly ended pre-release speculation seasons with hype bombs. Nothing followed Sonic that could compare back in Brawl's, and Pac-man was as big as it got in Smash 4's, until the very end of the 50-Fact video between the 3DS and Wii U releases. We have nothing more than fanboy dreams to believe that a newcomer to rival Ridley or K. Rool is obliged to follow.

Cons
- This contradicts Vergeben by a slight, but concise margin, promising only two characters when Verge declared at least three. While DLC is a possibility that would solve this contradiction, it would also render the entire issue of such few newcomers moot, since newcomers would simply still arrive even after the game is launched. Personally, I'd rather the endless DLC speculation season not begin before the game even gets to release.
- Sakurai said that he referred to the Smash ballot for Ultimate's newcomers, but as it currently stands, King K. Rool seems to be the only one that the ballot actually got into Smash. True, some of the veterans had their fair share of ballot support, but we'd have likely seen only Snake, ICs and Wolf return in that case instead of Everyone Being Here. Inklings and Isabelle could also be argued to have had decent ballot followings support their inclusions, but those two also had enough merits to get in on their own. While our understanding of the full ballot results is woefully incomplete, it's still unquestoinable that K. Rool largely has the ballot to thank for his inclusion - but assuming that the last newcomer is a Pokemon, it'd be pretty odd if he was the only full newcomer who could make that claim in a ballot-prioritizing Smash roster.
- Unless the censored green mode is something that makes up for about two or three newcomers, having only a single echo and full newcomer to go would make for the an extremely lopsided reveal schedule. A megaton bomb in E3, followed by a 5- character bonanza in August, only to close out with a mere 2 characters in October/November? Heck, it'd have made it wiser for them to have saved Isabelle for the second Smash Direct instead of showing her now, in order to pad the announcements out properly. The way they've handled Smash news ever since February has been nothing less than excellent, even the Isabelle reveal, so I find it difficult to believe that they'd drop the ball like that at the final stretch, unless the green mode turns out to be simply that fantastic.

Honestly, I hope it's not going to be as simple as this seems, but it's always best to know these things in advance and prepare. Hope for the best, certainly, but prepare for the worst - no reason to keep the hype up for so many characters, when it looks all too easy now for it to collapse back onto you when the final newcomer is revealed.

 

[**Gilgamesh**]

I am quite surprised that Thinkaman is posting about Smash speculation and not about game mechanics and theory.

How intriguing :O

 

[IceKitsune]

I don't think DLC is really as inevitable as we think.

I'm curious as to why you think that a game this huge will get absolutely no DLC which would easily make Nintendo Millions of Dollars? Even if you take money out of it and only look at other games DLC support; why would Splatoon 2 get over a year worth of DLC, but, Smash a game that will be as big if not bigger will get none?

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/...l_edition_box_seems_to_include_every/e5zyqxs/

Just thought I would throw these in

Oh and how do we know it’s not 3 remaining (the other side have two empty)

 

[Thinkaman]

Oh and how do we know it’s not 3 remaining (the other side have two empty)

There seems to be a recurring pattern of people not actually reading the topic, and just thinking that "the box theory" is "there are two empty spots left on the image."

That is not the point. The "box theory" is that the order of the fighters only works if the remaining fighters are listed on the other side in a very specific way. (One that includes an additional echo in the last row and no others.)

 

[Putuk]

I don't think DLC is really as inevitable as we think.

That's okay, we can't all be right.

 

[BronzeGreekGod]

I don't understand the op at all..

But ignoring that, why does this box matter at all? There are only 30 visible characters, but the game has over 70. None of this makes sense to me.

 

[WertQuadNine]

I don't understand the op at all..

But ignoring that, why does this box matter at all? There are only 30 visible characters, but the game has over 70. None of this makes sense to me.

...did you read the post? It's well explained. Very very likely the other characters are on the other side of the box, and the missing spots leave us with speculation on who is left.

 

[Izanagi97]

I just think this Box Theory is a load of bull**** and I don't trust a placeholder image and this isn't the first time people searched for patterns like with the gaps in the Portrait (they just move characters around to make room), a couple of tacky chairs (though somewhat believable), and a mock up of a box that doesn't exist yet (if there were really going to be about 11 or 12 newcomers, which is a fairly reasonable number, why front load 8 of them at E3 and the Smash direct). Besides, wouldn't be the first time Smash Ultimate paraphernalia was sold before the rest of the roster was announced (look at the "Everyone is Here" poster at E3).

 

[Jigglymaster]

If anyone here still doesn't understand how it works. This video should help.

 

[Fell God]

Yes. If Microsoft is actually contributing Minecraft content, you can pretty much bet your *** they are contributing a character. Microsoft is not the kind of company that you would contact just to throw in some trophies, or even a stage or an assist. So if Vergeben is right, then there are huge implications, even if it doesn't necessarily mean Banjo.

Inb4 Master Chief hahaha

 

[soviet prince]

wonder if they plan on revealing all characters by nov. 2nd hence why the console release that day, maybe why they did not show a design on the reg switch

 

[VexTheHex]

wonder if they plan on revealing all characters by nov. 2nd hence why the console release that day, maybe why they did not show a design on the reg switch

Box deniers keep falling back on Sakurai being hateful on leaks and this box being one. But to be quite honest, it also makes sense that he may be wanting to reveal all characters earlier on so there's less chance of someone getting to leak screens/footage of anyone. The last direct could always focus more on the online, modes, and Spirits. Heck the last direct could even just be a tribute to the series and how far it's came.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77008096

Vergeben is now investigating the box theory

And also doubled down incineroar


Oh speaking if him

He said atleast half a dozen right

So if you do incineroar, ken and thensquare Enix rep that would fill the blanks wouldn’t?
(We’re at three with simon, King K. Rool and Isabelle)

 

[BronzeGreekGod]

...did you read the post? It's well explained. Very very likely the other characters are on the other side of the box, and the missing spots leave us with speculation on who is left.

I read it and I don't get what it's trying to say lol. There's colour coding, and it says they're grouped or something, but I don't see what he's saying. And how many characters do we have now? Isn't it more than 70? (which is how many would be shown on both sides of the box)

 

[MaestroDavros]

I read it and I don't get what it's trying to say lol. There's colour coding, and it says they're grouped or something, but I don't see what he's saying. And how many characters do we have now? Isn't it more than 70? (which is how many would be shown on both sides of the box)

The idea is that not only are characters in order, but every 9 fighters the list swaps sides. Each row has 6 fighters on the visible side. Echo fighters are included so (supposedly) the missing side would have the OG 8 plus Dark Samus. Doing some math, 6 x 6 = 36 x 2 = 72. So there would be 72 fighters if both sides are filled up completely.

Now to the blank spaces. As seen on the box, there are 2 blank spaces on the visible side, and because (counting Mii Fighters & Pokemon Trainer as 1 each like the box does) there are 69 fighters on the box mockup in total, leaving 2 blank on the visible side of the box and 1 blank on the unseen side of the box. This was likely made before Isabelle's reveal, so if we add her we get 70. So there are only 2 spaces left, one on each side, for a total of 72 fighters, and that's the number of fighters that's been touted on the website for months. So there's only 2 left to reveal.

This is where we get to specualtory territory. One of the key tenants of the theory is that it assumes Vergeben is right (TBH I see no reason he isn't these days) in that Incineroar is coming, and that there's a good possibility that Ken is coming as well, as an echo of Ryu. If this is all that's left (and as of now even Verge isn't totally sure this is the complete roster) then the 2 remaining spaces are for Ken and Incineroar. Adding support to this idea is that as seen on the art, the echoes are always not only right next to the fighter they're echoing, but on the same row. Ken makes sense because he could be added without disrupting this "harmony" on the left side, plus more importantly if an echo is added to the visible side it throws everything we see off.

I'm conflicted as to whether it's true, but I guess we'll see. I'm believing it more and more by the day TBH, although I still hope we get more than just 1 more unique and 1 more echo.

 

[Ze Diglett]

This is really starting to remind me of "guys there are X open spaces on the mural, that means there can only be X characters left" from a few months back.

 

[thirsty-pocket]

See the fact that it's such a deliberately done pattern like that has me dumbfounded that so many people are willing to just casually wave this theory off as "silly" and act like everyone who believes it are crazy, but this is the same community that thinks two colored chairs have a deep meaning. I'm just gonna put my stance on the box in my sig so I can just stop addressing it until it's proven true or false.

 

[Jigglymaster]

After Verg's new response on the box theory. I'm in the boat of believing it again. States Incineroar is in fact the pokemon rep and that DLC shouldn't be a question, and that it's happening.

I already highly speculated that the SE rep is going to end up as our first DLC. It's looking to be the case despite how many people think "It's too early for DLC"

 

[soviet prince]

I believe the dlc part is him speculating

 

[Jigglymaster]

I believe the dlc part is him speculating

Yeah, but why wouldn't DLC happen? He doesn't seem to think his SE source is wrong, and they probably want to support the longevity of Ultimate, so DLC will probably be a thing. Again, it's not the first time we've gotten a DLC announcement before the game was released.

Next direct will start out with Incineroar confirmation, and at the end... Geno DLC announcement. That's what I think is going to happen.

 

[Khao]

See the fact that it's such a deliberately done pattern like that has me dumbfounded that so many people are willing to just casually wave this theory off as "silly" and act like everyone who believes it are crazy, but this is the same community that thinks two colored chairs have a deep meaning. I'm just gonna put my stance on the box in my sig so I can just stop addressing it until it's proven true or false.

The thing is that people who dismiss it are focusing too much on the empty spots on the box. And once you get the idea that the theory is about that, it's understandable to dismiss it because empty spots mean absolutely nothing.

It's a bit frustrating though, as that's literally the most irrelevant part about this theory, haha. The theory works with or without the empty spots. I don't even fully believe in the validity of this thing myself, but I can't even talk about it because most people completely miss the point.

 

[Izanagi97]

This is really starting to remind me of "guys there are X open spaces on the mural, that means there can only be X characters left" from a few months back.

I saw a good list of counterarguments against this box on reddit, 3 compelling ones are the following

• It's a mock up, as shown by the spelling error of the French word for Game
• It's not the first time Marketing was purposefully misleading (Like this thing)
• Why the hell would a box designer be aware of the final roster if not even Xander Mobus, who works directly on one of the aspects of the game itself, isn't

At least the Chair theory, for however dumb is was, had some water since Sakurai was in control of the room layout.

 

[SonicMario]

• Why the hell would a box designer be aware of the final roster if not even Xander Mobus, who works directly on one of the aspects of the game itself, isn't

Pretty sure the first two you mentioned aren't compelling enough to disprove it. But regarding Xander he's said that they give a list of names for him to speak even if they don't actually turn out to be in the game. So even if for some reason Xander ruins his voice acting career by disregarding the NDA and saying every name he was given, not every name he gives would be a playable character.

 

[BronzeGreekGod]

I hope this theory is false lol.

 

[Jigglymaster]

I hope this theory is false lol.

I don't think theres anyone who wants it to be real, even the ones who believe in it.

 

[0007]

You can't believe Vergeben and the box theory simultaneously. Vergeben has said there are at least 3 characters left, while the box theory very definitively states that there are only 2, no more. You can go "oh the SE rep is going to be DLC!" but there's never been DLC announced before launch. Mewtwo was revealed a month after Smash 4 launched. There aren't going to be 2 versions of Smash Ultimate, so Day 1 DLC will really rub a lot of people the wrong way and I don't think Sakurai would do that.

 

[Izanagi97]

You can't believe Vergeben and the box theory simultaneously. Vergeben has said there are at least 3 characters left, while the box theory very definitively states that there are only 2, no more. You can go "oh the SE rep is going to be DLC!" but there's never been DLC announced before launch. Mewtwo was revealed a month after Smash 4 launched. There aren't going to be 2 versions of Smash Ultimate, so Day 1 DLC will really rub a lot of people the wrong way and I don't think Sakurai would do that.

I mean we all know how pissed people got about Tira being DLC in SC VI

 

[Khao]

You can't believe Vergeben and the box theory simultaneously. Vergeben has said there are at least 3 characters left, while the box theory very definitively states that there are only 2, no more. You can go "oh the SE rep is going to be DLC!" but there's never been DLC announced before launch. Mewtwo was revealed a month after Smash 4 launched. There aren't going to be 2 versions of Smash Ultimate, so Day 1 DLC will really rub a lot of people the wrong way and I don't think Sakurai would do that.

At least to me, the most important part of the box theory is not the fact that "There's 2 characters left", but that Ken is implied to be in the game. If we accept that this is most likely a placeholder box that will have a different layout by the time the game is released, the point that the current layout only makes sense if there's an Echo between Palutena and Cloud still stands on its own, and it's still perfectly compatible with Vergeben's claims.

I'm still not personally sold on any of these rumors, but they're far from mutually exclusive, and even reinforce eachother depending on how you see it.

 

[Jigglymaster]

You can't believe Vergeben and the box theory simultaneously. Vergeben has said there are at least 3 characters left, while the box theory very definitively states that there are only 2, no more. You can go "oh the SE rep is going to be DLC!" but there's never been DLC announced before launch. Mewtwo was revealed a month after Smash 4 launched. There aren't going to be 2 versions of Smash Ultimate, so Day 1 DLC will really rub a lot of people the wrong way and I don't think Sakurai would do that.

Well I suppose time will tell then. Verg and his sources are currently looking into the Box Theory matter to see if they can confirm/deny it themselves. As for the whole "They wouldn't do that." Nintendo did just sort of give us a Paid Online Membership that gives us Online Play (which we already have), NES titles, and the ability to call people on the phone.

 

[Xebenkeck]

I beleive this theory is true this appears to be a unintentional slip up on nintendos part.

But the thing i dont inderstand is why is ken thought to be the echo 100%. Medusa is just as likely in my book of the characters in that row.

The only thing that makes me pause is Sakurai in the last direct saying “ there are a few more echoes so stay tuned” but that very much could be translation error.

 

[MaestroDavros]

I beleive this theory is true this appears to be a unintentional slip up on nintendos part.

But the thing i dont inderstand is why is ken thought to be the echo 100%. Medusa is just as likely in my book of the characters in that row.

The only thing that makes me pause is Sakurai in the last direct saying “ there are a few more echoes so stay tuned” but that very much could be translation error.

I rewatched the direct yesterday and as translated by Nintendo Sakurai specifically says "This time, we plan on revealing the design of every fighter before the game launches. We'll have a few more to announce later, so stay tuned". Not just echoes.

He did say it right after Chrom and Dark Samus were announced as echoes and the CSS thing regarding them was talked about so I think what happened was that echoes were on our minds, and we misremembered almost immediately (plus what the heck does "design" mean?).