Based on the special edition box, the only remaining characters are Ken + one final newcomer.

[ThatOneAnon]

The thing is, no matter what happens, if this leak ends up being true, there’s gonna be a massive ****load of people who are outright going to boycott the game because of this.
No matter what Spirits might be, it’s not gonna be enough to keep the hype train afloat. You might think I’m being overdramatic, but this is the Smash community. It doesn’t matter what Sakurai does, the second he does something unsatisfactory everyone acts as though it’s the end of the ****ing world. Even if there’s DLC there are likely only gonna be like five DLC characters, and none of them will be Geno, Isaac, Banjo, or any of the other most requested characters. They certainly won’t be characters that I want. I mean I want ****ing Doomguy, Wonder Red and Dante, three insane long shots.
I’m sorry, I don’t want to be cynical, but the increasing likeliness of this leak is depressing me.

 

[lucasla]

I will be happy with Crash and Rayman.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

This is just stupid theory

Besides it missing several characters already confirmed

I’m sure we will get more than just ken and the Pokémon rep

 

[thirsty-pocket]

The thing is, no matter what happens, if this leak ends up being true, there’s gonna be a massive ****load of people who are outright going to boycott the game because of this.
No matter what Spirits might be, it’s not gonna be enough to keep the hype train afloat. You might think I’m being overdramatic, but this is the Smash community. It doesn’t matter what Sakurai does, the second he does something unsatisfactory everyone acts as though it’s the end of the ****ing world. Even if there’s DLC there are likely only gonna be like five DLC characters, and none of them will be Geno, Isaac, Banjo, or any of the other most requested characters. They certainly won’t be characters that I want. I mean I want ****ing Doomguy, Wonder Red and Dante, three insane long shots.
I’m sorry, I don’t want to be cynical, but the increasing likeliness of this leak is depressing me.

Most of the people who say they're going to do this kind of thing are all talk and would hardly impact sales numbers even if they did go through with their childish boycott.

I'm disappointed by isabel, and i will be bummed out if the last two newcomers are ken and a gen 7 pokemon, but i'm definitely still going to buy this game and love it regardless of what's revealed next.
Don't let what a couple of bad egg fans do or say spoil your day man.

 

[ThatOneAnon]

I would love to have as positive an outlook on things as you.
I don’t WANT to be a cynical **** but it’s late at night, this theory looks likely and my neck hurts.

 

[thirsty-pocket]

lmao trust me i don't have a positive outlook right now, i'm very cranky, i got a toothache, isabell disappointed me, and the box theory has frightened me that the last two reveals are gonna be two characters I don't care about. I just know that there is no force in heaven or hell that is going to make a Smash Bros game perform poorly, especially a few angry entitled gremlins with a lot of free time on their hands.

 

[Thinkaman]

There's space for 4 more characters. See that the Mii Fighters are together on the same rectangle, but they are considered as three different characters.

There are 36*2 = 72 spaces for characters in both sides of the box. But on this side, the Mii Fighters are ocuppying 1 slot instead of 3, so, at the other side, there's empty space for 2 characters too.

Please read the post.

This is just stupid theory

Besides it missing several characters already confirmed

Please read the post.

The thing is, no matter what happens, if this leak ends up being true, there’s gonna be a massive ****load of people who are outright going to boycott the game because of this.

Exactly zero people are going to boycott Smash Ultimate for having "only" 74 playable characters, the most by far of any fighting game ever made. (If we are not including more limited types of fighters, such as Naruto, DBZ Bodukai, wrestling games, ect.)

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

I assume this is a completed render of the box that has been edited to remove Isabelle and the character right next to her. And they're showing us the side of the box with the new characters because it's more visually interesting. And if that's the case, then there is only room on the other side of the box for all the rest of the veterans that aren't on this side, and their echoes. And one empty slot.

So I think you are correct, that since the last of the alternating sets of nine on the other side of the box, would be the one with a slot missing, that the last character on the other side would be Ken. So maybe this does actually say that Ken is the last echo fighter we're getting.

However, I'm sure that this box render wouldn't be shown to us like this, if we could easily surmise the rest of the roster from it. So while there might not be any more echoes (since there's no room for them, assuming they're all going to be placed next to the characters they were echoed from).... I don't think this necessarily says there is only one unique newcomer left. I don't think that's something they would outright tell us through a box render. Also, it would go against Vergeben's leaks (Ken, a Pokemon rep, and a Square Enix rep is already more than the slots we have available). So I'm not buying that the whole roster is on those two sides of the box.

 

[ThatOneAnon]

The thing is, for all we know Nintendo could be counting on their fans being ****ing idiots who can’t analyze anything. I doubt they’d give us a major hint to the final count through a ****ing box art render too, but Nintendo isn’t known for good marketing anymore.

 

[Luco]

Having already played the game with just Inkling in it as a new character at the time I would like to say if they stopped the roster as it is now I would still be buying this game the second it became available to me and regardless of my financial security. It's well crafted and it definitely feels like there's more in there for everyone to have fun with. Please don't worry!

Smash 4 had 6 DLC characters btw, if Ultimate doesn't have more I'd honestly be shocked. Plenty of suprises are certainly still waiting in store for smash fans!

Finally if I recall the 50 fact extravaganza showcased Mewtwo before Wii U came out and we became aware of Mewtwo's existence then, it's possible our leaker is picking up on information on the first planned DLC character as well.

 

[Xigger]

I think I saw something on Reddit suggesting the Box could be an edited digital mockup (Link for the interested)

I feel like this buried link should be added into the OP, as it shows more evidence against this theory than this theory has:

- Prior promotional marketing that had similar character limits (i.e. no character after Ridley)
- Digital analysis proving that the boxart was digitally edited, and not a photograph (Like most Amazon images)
- The CSS announcer Xander Mobus states that employees are given false information to prevent leaks

 

[smashingDoug]

If geno and skull kid and a new Pokémon isn’t in, then Shadow is unique if going off leaks

Seriously though I hope the last newcomers aren’t just lukewarm characters

And not only would two more characters fill out the box it would fill out the website and make it even

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

I feel like this buried link should be added into the OP, as it shows more evidence against this theory than this theory has:

- Prior promotional marketing that had similar character limits (i.e. no character after Ridley)
- Digital analysis proving that the boxart was digitally edited, and not a photograph (Like most Amazon images)
- The CSS announcer Xander Mobus states that employees are given false information to prevent leaks

I think we all knew it was a digital mockup, it's obviously not an actual picture of the physical box or anything. It's standard practice, and then they provided the digital mockup (edited to remove the last two on that side of the box) to retailers like Amazon. But I think what the OP is assuming is that even this edited render is still based on the actual completed render of the box, hence the very specific alternating sets of nine.

However, even that could be some kind of misdirect. It wouldn't be difficult to alter the texture they are using for the 3D model, the same way they alter the character poster. So yes, it's possible this doesn't even reflect the final box as much as we're thinking.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

This is just stupid theory

Besides it missing several characters already confirmed

I’m sure we will get more than just ken and the Pokémon rep

This. All of this so much. I'm in the same boat as you.

At the chance it is true though. I'd expect we'd at most get 4 DLC characters 2 uniques and 2 echos.

 

[Thinkaman]

Smash 4 had 6 DLC characters btw, if Ultimate doesn't have more I'd honestly be shocked.

7

- Prior promotional marketing that had similar character limits (i.e. no character after Ridley)

I'm can't believe I'm having to explain the difference between the primary promotional image of the game--complete with animated videos posted to social media when characters are added to it--with something as far downstream as a North American unique SKU box art placeholder, intended to ship on release day.

- Digital analysis proving that the boxart was digitally edited, and not a photograph (Like most Amazon images)

No one is claiming this is a photograph. It's obviously a render. It has characters digitally removed for crying out loud.

- The CSS announcer Xander Mobus states that employees are given false information to prevent leaks

Xander Mobius is not an employee of Nintendo.

So yes, it's possible this doesn't even reflect the final box as much as we're thinking.

No, surely it reflects the final box (sans digitally censored missing boxes). There's no conspiracy, no crazy decoys. That's not how the world works.

The open question is if there are more characters (newcomers) not on the box. (And then, of course, DLC is whatever)

 

[Ryan.]

Welp, this is going around.

https://youtu.be/6_gvdle2ZPo

Honestly this theory seems likely to me. I would love some other echos (Dixie, Impa, etc) but this Smash already has a huge, spectacular roster that I'm happy no matter what.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Only time will definitely if this is indeed true or not. We'll find out in the end.

 

[VexTheHex]

I feel the box theory lines up very well with the stage and music theory. It also holds water to the current character spread on the site with room for... 2 characters before needing expanded.

I disagree it confirms Ken though since Palutena could have Medusa, Pacman could have Ms Pacman, Robin could have Celica or Soren, Cloud could have someone, and I think (don't know series) Shulk could as well? Pacman, Kid Icarus, and Final Fantasy have also not had music uploads if that holds true in the end as well.

And some need to calm down on the entitlement. We are at 9 newcomers already with 5 (Wolf, Pichu, Ivysaur, Squirtle, and Young Link) revived characters. Adding two more newcomers on top of that puts us at a solid 16.

 

[Xigger]

However, even that could be some kind of misdirect. It wouldn't be difficult to alter the texture they are using for the 3D model, the same way they alter the character poster. So yes, it's possible this doesn't even reflect the final box as much as we're thinking.

I don't know if misdirect is the right word, but it's definitely the same tactic seen for the updating image on the Smash Bros site, as well as most full-character promos and screenshots.

No, surely it reflects the final box (sans digitally censored missing boxes). There's no conspiracy, no crazy decoys. That's not how the world works.

Calling someone's idea a conspiracy is the pot calling the kettle black, especially in a theory thread.

Not to mention that IS how Smash tends to operate with its characters.

 

[0007]

We are at 9 newcomers already with 5 (Wolf, Pichu, Ivysaur, Squirtle, and Young Link) revived characters.

Actually, we've really only gotten 5 newcomers, I don't count the new Echoes. Returning veterans are also not newcomers.

 

[VexTheHex]

Actually, we've really only gotten 5 newcomers, I don't count the new Echoes. Returning veterans are also not newcomers.

Doesn't mean much when they still had to remake all the old cut characters, so they weren't really copy and paste jobs. As everyone should recall, Sakurai made it a point that they took the time to bring back old stages and characters while maintaining the current ones (LoZ and Peach got move set changes or polish for example) and said since they focused on that... don't expect a lot of newcomers.

And now people are thinking we still need 4-6 more for it to be "right." The roster is huge and only going to get harder to maintain.

 

[Jigglymaster]

I said this in the character thread that I support, but I'll say it here as well.

Whether you want to believe it or not. This is what I suggest.
Lower your expectations: Believe that we will only get Ken and 1 new character. Worst case scenario is that it happens and we've coped with the final roster months in advance and can start planning our DLC campaign. Best case scenario is that the box theory was wrong and we have way more to enjoy and look forward to as a surprise.
Keep an eye out for the music: Both on Brawl's Dojo and the entirety of Ultimate's website, there has NEVER been a repeating franchise that has music on the website. Every newcomer that came out after the website started has also come with music (and it's expected that Isabelle will have an Animal Crossing song next week because of the blog number switching due to the delays). This insists that the only new characters we can get are either from a new franchise, or from a franchise that does NOT have a song on the website yet. Amongst those, they include
(Mario Kart).
(Note: This doesn't include Bayonetta or Final Fantasy because the August direct showed us that they have no new songs)

Out of them, these have the highest possibility. Listed from most likely to least likely.
(Confirmed Isabelle, their song will most likely show up next week)
(Gen 7)
(Tails, Shadow)
(Elma, Rex)

Since it's rumored by Vergeben that we're getting a Gen 7... that's probably what it's going to be. But It still could be a Sonic or Xenoblade character.

Anyways, the point I'm trying to get at here is, watch out for the songs that get picked within these next few weeks. We'll be able to get a better idea on who will probably show up depending on what songs get put on the site before a character reveal.

Wait for the next direct announcement: If there really is only Ken and 1 echo left... theres only going to be one more smash direct for us to watch. If it doesn't happen in October, then it's most likely the case that this is all we're getting. If it DOES happen in October, we can allow ourselves to be highly skeptical of the box theory.

That's my advice for the situation we're in right now. Take it as you will.

 

[Thinkaman]

Calling someone's idea a conspiracy is the pot calling the kettle black, especially in a theory thread.

A conspiracy describes a group of people taking deliberate actions to conceal, deceive, or otherwise lie to someone.

Conspiracy: "Nintendo of America's marketing team is creating decoy renders of retail boxes to mislead the community."
Not-A-Conspiracy: "Nintendo of America just censored unrevealed characters on their (actual) retail box image to make a placeholder for retail preorders."

Conspiracy: "When Sakurai said not to expect too many new challengers, he actually was trying to manipulate our expectations to surprise us even more--he is communicating the TRUE roster through his furniture choices."
Not-A-Conspiracy: "When Sakurai said not to expect too many new challengers, it's because they instead spent their time on 65 returning characters."

Conspiracy: "When Sakurai said compared to previous games there are now 103 stages, it is a ruse to conceal the true number of stages from us. The stages web page is an incomplete fake and will be updated."
Not-A-Conpiracy: "When Sakurai said compared to previous games there are now 103 stages, it is because there are 103 stages."

 

[Fell God]

employees are given false information to prevent leaks

GALACTIC BRAIN

 

[Izanagi97]

I don't know if misdirect is the right word, but it's definitely the same tactic seen for the updating image on the Smash Bros site, as well as most full-character promos and screenshots.



Calling someone's idea a conspiracy is the pot calling the kettle black, especially in a theory thread.

Not to mention that IS how Smash tends to operate with its characters.

And besides, as mentioned in the GameXplain video, who's to say they can't just resize the box as they see fit? We've already seen in that poster they can shift around characters to make room

 

[VexTheHex]

I said this in the character thread that I support, but I'll say it here as well.

Whether you want to believe it or not. This is what I suggest.
Lower your expectations: Believe that we will only get Ken and 1 new character. Worst case scenario is that it happens and we've coped with the final roster months in advance and can start planning our DLC campaign. Best case scenario is that the box theory was wrong and we have way more to enjoy and look forward to as a surprise.
Keep an eye out for the music: Both on Brawl's Dojo and the entirety of Ultimate's website, there has NEVER been a repeating franchise that has music on the website. Every newcomer that came out after the website started has also come with music (and it's expected that Isabelle will have an Animal Crossing song next week because of the blog number switching due to the delays). This insists that the only new characters we can get are either from a new franchise, or from a franchise that does NOT have a song on the website yet. Amongst those, they include
(Mario Kart).

Out of them, these have the highest possibility. Listed from most likely to least likely.
(Confirmed Isabelle, their song will most likely show up next week)
(Gen 7)
(Tails, Shadow)
(Elma, Rex)

Since it's rumored by Vergeben that we're getting a Gen 7... that's probably what it's going to be. But It still could be a Sonic or Xenoblade character.

Anyways, the point I'm trying to get at here is, watch out for the songs that get picked within these next few weeks. We'll be able to get a better idea on who will probably show up depending on what songs get put on the site before a character reveal.

Wait for the next direct announcement: If there really is only Ken and 1 echo left... theres only going to be one more smash direct for us to watch. If it doesn't happen in October, then it's most likely the case that this is all we're getting. If it DOES happen in October, we can allow ourselves to be highly skeptical of the box theory.

That's my advice for the situation we're in right now. Take it as you will.

You forgot in the no music spot. With all the old Final Fantasy games confirmed to be coming our way, it's possible we'll get a Cloud echo if someone fits. Medusa also fits in well for Palutena with no music shown yet.

And wouldn't Ken be hurt by Street Fighter already having music in? We can rule that someone in that line is likely getting a Echo, but we can't 100% it on Ken.

And besides, as mentioned in the GameXplain video, who's to say they can't just resize the box as they see fit? We've already seen in that poster they can shift around characters to make room

My issue with this is adding more slots per a row will simply increase the roster in a more dramatic fashion since 1 per a row would make room for 6 per a side making room for 12 more characters in total? That feels very extreme compared to accepting we are getting to the end of the line with 2 newcomers.

 

[Khao]

Eh, even if this is true, are people really that surprised about the idea that there's only 2 newcomers left?

We're already have 9 new characters. Two more would put us at 11. Sakurai said not to expect too many new fighters. Melee had 14 newcomers. Brawl had 18. At launch, Sm4sh had 17. Is anyone seriously expecting this game to match the amount of newcomers of previous games when we've been explicitly told that it won't?

Considering that the last game had 58, is 76 fighters seriously that dissapointing?

 

[Jigglymaster]

You forgot in the no music spot. With all the old Final Fantasy games confirmed to be coming our way, it's possible we'll get a Cloud echo if someone fits. Medusa also fits in well for Palutena with no music shown yet.

You might've quoted my post before I edited it in, but Cloud and Bayonetta were confirmed to have the same exact amount of songs from their Smash 4 counterparts. You can see in the August direct while they hover over the series icons in the music section that Final Fantasy still only has 2 songs.

And wouldn't Ken be hurt by Street Fighter already having music in? We can rule that someone in that line is likely getting a Echo, but we can't 100% it on Ken.

No, echo fighters don't follow the music rule. Metroid had music on the website before Dark Samus was revealed. This theory only holds true to newcomers.

 

[thirsty-pocket]

I don't think it's that there's two left that people are freaking out so much as it is people freaking out that the last two characters are very likely Ken and a Pokemon, which I don't really think drums up a lot of hype.

Of course I still think everyone's going to be happy but naturally people who were still rooting for a character that wasn't confirmed yet are gonna be a little bummed.

 

[staindgrey]

Pattern guessing like this always end up being wrong. What is on the other side of the box is assumed. Assumptions are not proof of anything. What if, for example, Pokemon Trainer is not by himself and it shows the 3 Pokemon? What then? For that matter what makes this the definitive final box design? More assumptions. You're all jumping to conclusions without even visual evidence. That's no different from believing text leaks.

It's not always wrong.

I distinctly remember when Brawl was released in Japan and people on this very board deduced that, judging by character placement according to series on the select screen, the last two surprise characters had to be a pokemon and a Star Fox rep. And withina day or so, those were confirmed correct with Jigglypuff and Wolf.

The box layout, at least on the side we see, definitely follows a distinct pattern, and the blacked out boxes show that the people who rendered it are aware of what can't be shown. The hypothosis outlined in this thread is still only a hypothesis-- but it's a damn good one.

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

No, surely it reflects the final box (sans digitally censored missing boxes). There's no conspiracy, no crazy decoys. That's not how the world works.

The open question is if there are more characters (newcomers) not on the box. (And then, of course, DLC is whatever)

A conspiracy describes a group of people taking deliberate actions to conceal, deceive, or otherwise lie to someone.

Conspiracy: "Nintendo of America's marketing team is creating decoy renders of retail boxes to mislead the community."
Not-A-Conspiracy: "Nintendo of America just censored unrevealed characters on their (actual) retail box image to make a placeholder for retail preorders."

Conspiracy: "When Sakurai said not to expect too many new challengers, he actually was trying to manipulate our expectations to surprise us even more--he is communicating the TRUE roster through his furniture choices."
Not-A-Conspiracy: "When Sakurai said not to expect too many new challengers, it's because they instead spent their time on 65 returning characters."

Conspiracy: "When Sakurai said compared to previous games there are now 103 stages, it is a ruse to conceal the true number of stages from us. The stages web page is an incomplete fake and will be updated."
Not-A-Conpiracy: "When Sakurai said compared to previous games there are now 103 stages, it is because there are 103 stages."

Don't be rude. I am not saying there is a conspiracy, I am basically just saying exactly what you are saying. The most likely scenario is that this render is based on the completed render, edited to remove the two characters, and then provided to retailers. Which would imply that Ken is the last echo fighter, and if there are more unique newcomers (besides the one next to Isabelle), they're not on those two sides of the box.

But, let's also be real here. Nintendo is not going to reveal the exact number of characters on the roster through a box render shown off by a retailer. So, as you rightly pointed out, it's possible that some characters are on the back of the box, or just not on the box at all. But, if we're already assuming this is possible, why is it suddenly a huge stretch to imagine that they could alter the asset they are using for the box here? That's not "lying", they are already altering assets over time to account for newly revealed characters. Technically speaking, there have been like three different versions of the character poster that they had to make, and there are probably going to be a couple more in the future, are those all "decoys"? No that's just a natural consequence of them revealing characters over time.

 

[VexTheHex]

You might've quoted my post before I edited it in, but Cloud and Bayonetta were confirmed to have the same exact amount of songs from their Smash 4 counterparts. You can see in the August direct while they hover over the series icons in the music section that Final Fantasy still only has 2 songs.



No, echo fighters don't follow the music rule. Metroid had music on the website before Dark Samus was revealed. This theory only holds true to newcomers.

I did not know that on Cloud's and Bayonetta's part in regards to the music being the same. But, wasn't case special cause she was the only one that had another newcomer beat her to it? and were followed by their music, right?

 

[Jigglymaster]

But, wasn't case special cause she was the only one that had another newcomer beat her to it? and were followed by their music, right?

That could just be a lucky coincidence that both Daisy and Chrom got revealed before their series got music. It's just that Dark Samus didn't get shown before their series got music. And generally for the most part, echo fighters don't get music treatment on the website. Richter's song was completely skipped over.

I think with the small selection of 8 characters that we have and the fact that Verg seems confident that it's Ken.... It's probably Ken.

 

[VexTheHex]

For those talking about hype... the last character has never been a major hype character. They been solid additions, but they typically are the last characters Sakurai added like ! Poor guy had a lot of hate thrown at him... both Sakurai and the character. In the end people loved Wolf and missed him when he was cut. Remember ? and ? So ya... I can easily see the last announcement not being everyone's husbando or waifu pick.

That could just be a lucky coincidence that both Daisy and Chrom got revealed before their series got music. It's just that Dark Samus didn't get shown before their series got music. And generally for the most part, echo fighters don't get music treatment on the website. Richter's song was completely skipped over.

I think with the small selection of 8 characters that we have and the fact that Verg seems confident that it's Ken.... It's probably Ken.

Well and were also shown off together so it does line up that the 1 time music only showed up for the first newcomer reveal for the series.

I don't deny that Ken is a very possible pick. But can not be ruled out by the music or box theory in terms of a echo.

Anyone wonder if Verg's source has been this box artwork all along? He or his source could of guessed by placement that the most likely echo would be Ken. It's more than likely Ken though, but it's food for thought!

 

[staindgrey]

The thing is, no matter what happens, if this leak ends up being true, there’s gonna be a massive ****load of people who are outright going to boycott the game because of this.

lol What?

I'm legitimately unsure how to respond to this as a serious statement. We got every single veteran back. We got Ridley. We got K. Rool.

The thought of any significant portion of the community "boycotting" the game at this point for roster decisions is laughable.

 

[Arthur97]

Ken is the part that I don't like. First of all, why? Second, there is no guarantee that any of this box logic is sound. It's a box. People love to look for patterns, and often look too much into them. In any case, don't go around saying stuff like it will be Ken without more solid proof.

 

[NintenRob]

Ken is the part that I don't like. First of all, why? Second, there is no guarantee that any of this box logic is sound. It's a box. People love to look for patterns, and often look too much into them. In any case, don't go around saying stuff like it will be Ken without more solid proof.

But in this case, there straight up is a pattern, like the sort of pattern they use to teach a pattern at school.

It's clearly alternating 9 by 9

Although it's possible that on the bottom of each side they only have 1 empty slot, and the only missing character is Isabelle. But there is room for 1 unique character and 1 echo in addition to Isabelle based on the actual present pattern

 

[0007]

And wouldn't Ken be hurt by Street Fighter already having music in? We can rule that someone in that line is likely getting a Echo, but we can't 100% it on Ken.

Only true newcomers get new music tracks on the website, Echoes don't.

 

[Fell God]

Ken is the part that I don't like. First of all, why? Second, there is no guarantee that any of this box logic is sound. It's a box. People love to look for patterns, and often look too much into them. In any case, don't go around saying stuff like it will be Ken without more solid proof.

Agreed. Ryu is already weird enough to balance and also Shoryuken is actually just dumb. Having a second one running around would just be a headache for everyone, devs and players alike. Don't know why so many people think he's a lock just because Richter exists. Not saying he won't be in, but...why

 

[VexTheHex]

Only true newcomers get new music tracks on the website, Echoes don't.

and both got music.

was revealed at the same time as and they got their music.

was revealed after and following the 1 music per a series, she didn't get her's.

It's probably Ken, but there's evidence supporting it not being him as well since no other Street Fighter character was introduced as a Newcomer to take the Street Fighter music spot when it was done.