Based on the special edition box, the only remaining characters are Ken + one final newcomer.

[TheCJBrine]

I believe this guy on GameFaqs brings up some good points against this theory: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77004278

I'll sum up my view, basing it off of that thread:

Nintendo's promotional team would be the ones making the mockup, Nintendo probably telling them "use the characters on the website" rather than "save room for newcomers, keep one spot after Ryu in mind." The blanks left on the box would be an artistic choice for attempted symmetry, as their other choices made it hard to show the characters without blanks left open. This would be done to give the box's design a nice impression, rather than lazily leave all the blanks on one side. It also explains why Isabelle is missing, despite them being revealed around the same time.

Of course, nothing is conclusive, so it could go either way.

 

[Jigglymaster]

They're not actually releasing the box like that, though. If they wanted it to look nice, they would have filled the side we can see with characters. It's not like we can even see the other side right now.

When it's released, I'd expect all the characters to be on there, which it probably originally was and they had to photoshop Isabelle and the other new character out. I see the people over at Gamefaqs are so instantly ready to count this as a debunk so that they can get back on the hype train but.... I don't see it as good enough evidence to debunk it.

 

[Jasper the Tourist]

I see validity in this, especially cuz it falls in line with the Verg leaks. I believe that the Square rep mystery isn’t that mysterious after all, and Geno will probably be offered as free DLC if you have the online subscription. The only thing I find odd is that Ken and Incinaroar (ugh) aren’t really hyped characters, so saving their reveals for last seems like an odd decision. But hey, throw Geno in there and I guess that could make up for it for many.

 

[SmasherMaster]

One thing I don't get about the box is why it goes by every nine characters and then switches sides, when there are six characters per row? Why not have it be











ultshulk:

 

[RADSheikah]

One thing I don't get about the box is why it goes by every nine characters and then switches sides, when there are six characters per row? Why not have it be











ultshulk:

I believe it's because they wanted the original 8 to be together while still including

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Last RTs: So what happened was: @Nirbion made a fake Smash Switch bundle.https://t.co/sINfzrb61A
And now Amazon used it on their website.
😂 😂 😂 pic.twitter.com/E2npmJPTH6

— Will (PushDustIn) (@PushDustIn) September 17, 2018

Shut the thread down

It’s over

I told you guys this was bogus theory

 

[The DanMan051]

Last RTs: So what happened was: @Nirbion made a fake Smash Switch bundle.https://t.co/sINfzrb61A
And now Amazon used it on their website.
😂 😂 😂 pic.twitter.com/E2npmJPTH6

— Will (PushDustIn) (@PushDustIn) September 17, 2018

Shut the thread down

It’s over

I told you guys this was bogus theory

FFS, we're talking about the LE bundle that has a Pro Controller and Steelbook case, not the console bundle-- and even then this is on Amazon Spain, while the LE screens are from Amazon.co.uk.

 

[TheTrueBrawler]

It could easily just be promotional material. We haven’t seen the back. Also, I don’t think Sakurai would reveal the exact amount of fighters in the game this early into Smash Ultimate hype. It wouldn’t be a smart decision.

For three months until release, they got to have more up their sleeve than just one new fighter and one echo fighter.

 

[Thinkaman]

It could easily just be promotional material. We haven’t seen the back. Also, I don’t think Sakurai would reveal the exact amount of fighters in the game this early into Smash Ultimate hype. It wouldn’t be a smart decision.

For three months until release, they got to have more up their sleeve than just one new fighter and one echo fighter.

Yeah, they probably have an entire mode, Home Run Contest + similar content, online details, and a DLC plan.

 

[staindgrey]

I believe this guy on GameFaqs brings up some good points against this theory: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77004278

I'll sum up my view, basing it off of that thread:

Nintendo's promotional team would be the ones making the mockup, Nintendo probably telling them "use the characters on the website" rather than "save room for newcomers, keep one spot after Ryu in mind." The blanks left on the box would be an artistic choice for attempted symmetry, as their other choices made it hard to show the characters without blanks left open. This would be done to give the box's design a nice impression, rather than lazily leave all the blanks on one side. It also explains why Isabelle is missing, despite them being revealed around the same time.

Of course, nothing is conclusive, so it could go either way.

As someone who works in marketing, I would be pissed if the company I worked for had me draw up a meticulous box design to be released to the public that includes roughly 70 points of interest, then later had me redo it to include other points of interest they didn't want to tell me about before.

There aren't any surprises for the team who designed the box art. They knew all the characters that would be included before the final concept was made. That doesn't mean the box theory is 100% fool-proof, but the characters weren't arranged this way by accident.

 

[Kevandre]

One thing I don't get about the box is why it goes by every nine characters and then switches sides, when there are six characters per row? Why not have it be











ultshulk:

It's one of the many small things that makes me not too concerned about the box leak anymore. This is nothing but a simple mockup designed to fill space. I was scared of it until I talked to my friend about it and realized how not-an-issue this mockup is

 

[Amiibo Doctor]

It's one of the many small things that makes me not too concerned about the box leak anymore. This is nothing but a simple mockup designed to fill space. I was scared of it until I talked to my friend about it and realized how not-an-issue this mockup is

Same. I believed it at first because of how vehemently Thinka was defending it, but then I went through and looked at it again, and I think it's not real. I've read the thread and watched a few videos on it, and I still don't believe it. There's actually quite a bit of contrary evidence and then some reasoning in the pages of this thread that, when added up against the theory, crush it.

 

[soviet prince]

normally I would not believe this THEORY but don't you all detractors find it odd that verben happens to only know about only 2 more characters ( the SE is From a different source) the puzzle fits to good.

 

[Izanagi97]

normally I would not believe this THEORY but don't you all detractors find it odd that verben happens to only know about only 2 more characters ( the SE is From a different source) the puzzle fits to good.

There's always room for surprises

 

[TheCJBrine]

normally I would not believe this THEORY but don't you all detractors find it odd that verben happens to only know about only 2 more characters ( the SE is From a different source) the puzzle fits to good.

The SE character existing is from one of his established, trusted sources.

He claimed the name came from a random person.

 

[soviet prince]

The SE character existing is from one of his established, trusted sources.

He claimed the name came from a random person.

he has not guaranteed it like the other 2, I believe the SE character is in talks for dlc which would explain why he heard of it later then the other 2.

 

[**Gilgamesh**]

How confident Thinkaman were you in Box theory throughout the entirety of Smash Ultimate speculation period right before the Final Direct since Box Theory not only survived the speculation period, but was in fact correct this entire time.

 

[FirestormNeos]

OP, do you play at smash tournaments?

cuz if you do, this should play whenever you take to the stage, because from now on it's your theme.

 

[osby]

This thread aged well.

 

[Thinkaman]

How confident Thinkaman were you in Box theory throughout the entirety of Smash Ultimate speculation period right before the Final Direct since Box Theory not only survived the speculation period, but was in fact correct this entire time.

Well:

• I was pretty dang close to 100% certain that what I posted was the final graphic design for the left and right sides of the box.
• I was open to the possibility of maybe one or two additional characters not on the box, especially if it was a character whose development status was uncertain, like Jigglypuff/Toon Link/Wolf in Brawl. But this seemed overall unlikely.
• I was >95% sure by the end that #69 would be a Pokemon, Nintendo's biggest franchise. If it were not for Pokemon Trainer and Pichu, it would have been 99%.
• I was actually pretty confident that we'd get a free DLC character! But, I thought it would probably be an Echo, like Shadow or Dixie. (Obviously I never guessed Piranha Plant.)
• I was confident the website was tracking to only reveal 2-3 characters before release.

A lot of this was informed by what we were explicitly told about how many characters to expect, and how many stages there were.

While I'm bragging, I was pretty accurate about characters in general. My prediction spreadsheet nailed the full roster since June, with a couple of exceptions:

• I missed Ritcher completely
• I didn't predict a specific Pokemon at any point
• I had "Ken/Akuma" as low as 30% odds before making this thread--the only correct newcomer I had below 70% at any point
• I had Shadow as high as 60% odds before making this thread--the only incorrect newcomer I had above 40% at any point
• I had Dixie and Tails as high as 40% at their high points

I posted a screen cap of my predictions after the 8.8 Direct on reddit, which was predominantly downvoted.

Now things I got wrong:

• Characters
  • Again, I didn't expect Ritcher and Piranha Plant at all, and thought the DLC freebie would be Shadow or similar.
  • While I had Isabelle at 98% odds for most of the cycle (the single highest of any character), I also assumed she'd be an echo.
• Assist Trophies:
  • I was very wrong here. I thought it likely that we were getting no further ATs after 8.8, with almost all the ATs from Smash 4 returning for around 52 total.
  • Instead we had 7 cut, 10 more added, and Isaac returning for 59 total. Crazy!
  • Spring Man as an Assist Trophy? I was just as sure he was DLC as everyone else.
  • Note that all these new ATs makes my website math invalid, even if it gave the right answer by accident.
• Items
  • I assumed that they had shown us every new item, but they left out Healing Sprout and Beasteball.
  • I predicted that they would remove only Team Healer. They did, but also removed Spring, of all items. (Wonder why?)
• Game Modes
  • I was 100% sure we'd get an expanded HRC, showcased in the Direct. Totally wrong in every way.
  • I thought Stage Builder was likely as well.
  • ...and I expected Trophies and random trophy stuff too.
• Spirits
  • While I had almost no expectations or predictions on Spirits, I did speculate in a post somewhere that it would probably have a lot of 3D environmental assets--it appears to have a few boss arenas, but not the extent I was guessing.
• The Final Direct
  • I expected it to be 25-30 minutes, not 40.
  • I didn't expect a cinematic story mode trailer, particularly as a bookend. (It seems obvious in hindsight)

For what it's worth, I currently expect all 5 DLC to be third-party characters. DLC is a little harder to predict, because third party characters depends on IP negotiations and business relationships that we are not privy to. (Geno in particular is just impossible for us to have any idea about tbqh) I do not have a single character above 50% odds atm.


But to be sporting, my pick for most likely DLC character is Lloyd, Yuri, or the protagonist of an upcoming Tales title.

• A large majority of the mii costumes became Fighters or ATs. Lloyd is one of the few unaccounted for.
• Tales is a series with major Nintendo history.
• Sakurai spoke very highly of Lloyd in the mii costume interview, calling him "the only choice" to represent Tales at the time.
• The character rights, being Namco, would be easier to obtain that almost any other third-party.
• Sakurai is certain to have full intel on upcoming Namco games/characters as early as possible.
• Tales of Vesperia is getting a Switch remaster in January.

I am skeptical of Minecraft talk, and extremely skeptical of Granblue talk.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Good stuff. I do wonder if some of the things that seemed obvious but couldn't make the cut (ex. Shadow, Spring Man) were due to development limitations, or whether they were conscious decisions on Sakurai's part.

What did you think of the whole Grinch fake while it was going on? It seemed to me that people were taking it in the opposite way they reacted to the Box Theory, even though both of them were seemingly-irrefutable official product images with radical ideas of what the final base roster would be like.

 

[Thinkaman]

What did you think of the whole Grinch fake while it was going on? It seemed to me that people were taking it in the opposite way they reacted to the Box Theory, even though both of them were seemingly-irrefutable official product images with radical ideas of what the final base roster would be like.

There was no equivalence between a conveniently-blurry single image that contradicted Sakurai's repeated statements, and an image uploaded by Nintendo to Amazon that matched them.

 

[ProfPeanut]

There was no equivalence between a conveniently-blurry single image that contradicted Sakurai's repeated statements, and an image uploaded by Nintendo to Amazon that matched them.

Not in content, sure. But it seemed like people were going about opposite ways No one could really refute Box Theory, and there was no indication it was fake at all, but people chose not to believe it and called it fake. No one could definitively disprove the Grinch leak, and the conditions needed to fake it almost matched the absurdity of the newcomers it promised, but people absolutely swarmed around it and praised it as a genuine successor to the ESRB leak.

Personally, it was kind of frustrating. One theory's irrefutability was ignored, while the other's was paraded around.

 

[TheTrueBrawler]

Wow, this theory held true. I didn't believe it.

 

[**Gilgamesh**]

Not in content, sure. But it seemed like people were going about opposite ways No one could really refute Box Theory, and there was no indication it was fake at all, but people chose not to believe it and called it fake. No one could definitively disprove the Grinch leak, and the conditions needed to fake it almost matched the absurdity of the newcomers it promised, but people absolutely swarmed around it and praised it as a genuine successor to the ESRB leak.

Personally, it was kind of frustrating. One theory's irrefutability was ignored, while the other's was paraded around.

The grinch leak was not only blurry but it also had quite a few inconsistencies with the already leakes background of battlefield that was leaked. In fact, their was no in game renders or anything. I was mostly in team fake precisely because it contradicted Sakurais statement and the fact that it would be pretty bizarre to reveal that many unique characters in a final direct+ explain them while keeping a coherent flow. I think people just let their bias get to them and the fact a lot of people despised box theory even though Sakurai statements gave high credence that their was only 2-3 newcomers left to reveal after Isabelle. The man constantly said don't expect too much at E3; then there's only a few left after Chrom and Dark Samus; then said you would be solely mistaken to believe reveals would be spewed out.

 

[Mogisthelioma]

Well OP, you were right. I was hoping the last newcomer would be Bandana Dee, but it's nice to see someone correctly predict the final roster without leaking anything.