If you know me at all you’ll know I don’t really care about footstool combos. Short of guaranteed locks from low height popups I do not see them as consistent enough, so Lucas’ Dthrow footstools do not impress me. That said, Lucas’ combo game far exceeds Ness’ with more reliable Dthrow combos, Dtilt setups, Zair setups and aerial combos. Ness’ combo game is not as strong and I fail to see how he racks up damage more effectively when he has a weaker advantage state and is worse at zoning. Also saying that Lucas lacks a way to threaten you with his grab outside of his best option (Zair) isn’t a fair assessment, by definition you are ignoring his best option. Not that this is true anyway, he has good ways to bait shield with his zoning.
Speaking of which, you say Lucas is more linear than Ness because he is forced to zone, but in fact he can mix up his neutral effectively between zoning and relatively safe Zair approaches. It’s not like Ness is particularly good at approaching. It is true that Lucas struggles against characters that can break his zone, but he at least retains retreating Zair and decent aerial escape options (Ness also has these) to attempt neutral resets. Ness might have better CQC, but it’s not so good that it gives him much more of a chance against the CQC monsters of top tier.
I do concede that Lucas’ lacklustre results throw relative strength into question. I don’t believe he is a hidden top tier or anything, just that his practical tools are superior to Ness’.
Having said that I also agree that Ness and Lucas are so different that comparing them doesn’t really accomplish anything. It’s like a less extreme version of arguing over the best Pokemon character just because they are Pokemon, when none of them are even semi-clones.
I disagree with Lucas' adv state being better. He is forced into inconsistent followups with moves like d-air out of dthrow to set up a tech chase situation, which he isn't all that great at playing out because he doesn't really fall fast enough to pull it off consistently and effectively. There's also the issue of d-air kind of sucking in this game. The hits don't link properly and this is something that can be abused by the opponent. If you want to go for more traditional combos you will only get one hit at most. Or at least, you SHOULD only be getting one hit at most.
Aside from that, his advantage state is basically just catching landings if he wants to extend his adv state beyond one hit out of dthrow. Like every character, Lucas has to guess what you'll land with/where you'll land but because of how committal his options here are and general lack of decent option selects/option coverage, if he guesses wrong there is nothing more he can do. He's back to neutral.
Other facets of his adv state are just not there. People like to hype up his PKT1 for edgeguarding/gimping and think it's better than Ness' because it goes through them. This is a misguided opinion imo because a) Lucas PKT is slow as hell, and has tighter turning circles - it covers/threatens much less space and is generally easier to play around for that reason; b) Lucas' PKT holds the opponent in their position and gives them time to think, unlike Ness' which forces people to fall immediately - obviously vastly preferable; c) Lucas PKT has a lot of endlag, meaning his pressure stalls when the PKT ends and you've got to start it up again from first gear. Lucas can also struggle to keep people on the ledge if they keep their getup obscure. Ness on the other hand has a far easier time covering multiple options due to hitbox size, duration, frame data sometimes, things like that. Ness ledgetrapping is scary as anything.
Ness' combo game is being optimised fairly slowly and although some of it is impractical as all hell (shoutouts to Flashwire's crazy Training Mode combos), a lot of it is actually very applicable in high-pressure situations (shoutouts to S1) and gives Ness a superior combo game imo, with more damage per hit to boot and the potential to set up some dangerous 50/50s to end stocks early, which Lucas just cannot do.
Ness tech chasing is stronger because he has more forgiving option coverage in this situation. Lucas has to guess correctly in order to get hits in because his options are slower. Ness can react with faster dash attack/grab to continue adv., as well as pressure an option with fast dtilts. Lucas does have his nair which is cool for this but it can be a little risky for my tastes and again, you really have to commit to it and hope you guessed right.
So yeah there's the counterpoint there. Ness' adv state is massively better than Lucas' imo.
To be fair though, I share your broad opinion, I do think Lucas is better than Ness at least in theory. His neutral is pretty nice and on paper his neutral tools are generally pretty conducive to Smash 4, minus inherent Smash 4 BS. Really good pokes, a strong GTFO option if he ever lets them get too close, and can force most characters in the game to approach. Lucas can't zone all game because PK Fire is a pretty awkward zoning tool (very unsafe unless you move backwards with it... which is obviously not ideal because positioning etc) but he's great at counterpoking/midrange so he has got that going for him.
I don't see the merit in zair to approach to be honest because it's very difficult to reliably follow up on it unless you're so close that it's not longer safe on block. Lucas is pretty awful at approaching. So is Ness, but Ness does at least have zone breaking potential and can play the CQC way better than Lucas. If an opponent is able to force Lucas to approach and can smother him in footsies, he's going to struggle. Ness has a few more options. His footsies options are inferior but his oos game, for example, is not, and trades will tend to benefit Ness; extending your adv on him is a lot riskier and Ness is kind of built to punish an opponent overextending.
Lucas quietly has some amazing players like Hakadama (so good, but he barely travels to show what he can do), Taiheita, Aghesama, PK Blueberry (again this man is so good, shame he never goes to anything), Mekos, Clade, Luco, Nova/Kodystri/whatever he calls himself now, etc etc ...
There are quite a few high-level Lucas players out there who would put in some serious work but there's a recurring theme here... barely any of them go to anything.
Ness rep on the other hand can be a bit hit and miss but whenever he's at anything, he always does well, sometimes fantastically well. When you put a dangerous character in the hands of one of these top players who can process so many possibilities very quickly, he's one hell of a force.
The problem is Ness is very obviously flawed and this stuff sticks. Lucas isn't that great but his weaknesses aren't as prominent (they're not as immediately glaring, but at higher levels and against better characters the cracks really start to show), but then again he doesn't really have any easy-bake BS to exploit to assert himself. (always ban FD.) So whether he can consistently match/exceed Ness in practical, high-pressure situations remains unclear.
I think that he could if given the opportunity though.
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@Above (not gonna alert you for the sake of a footnote) As for Nesses who are placing: S1, Poppt, Gackt, Taranito (seen less of him of late but he was around a fair bit early 2017), NAKAT (been using him a lot more), Shaky, FuTure, SS every now and then. (I miss MASA) I appreciate that many of these players don't solo him. And yes FOW is barely active but you can't just dismiss his results and wins at Civil War and Nairo Saga. With solo Ness, no less.
I'm not saying you have to be as optimistic about Ness as I am (when you've been playing him this long you need some hope to hang on to), but I think it's a bit unfair to say Ness is too high and Lucas is "much better" on the basis that Ness is lacking in representation... Lucas has the same problem multiplied by 10.