Official 4BR Tier List V3 - Competitive Insight & Analysis

[Ziodyne 21]

I though Lucario being overall inconsistent in performance and matchups was already well known. His very design will alwasy ensure consistency issues. That not saying Lucario does not have the potential to do well in the right circumstances, as we saw at Frostbite.

Lucario is basically the archtype of the "anti-metagame" character. Where he can do well and whose playstyle counters a lot of the the current best and most commonly seen characters in the competitive meta. (i.e Diddy, Sheik and Bayo) However he will lose to other high tiers and a lot of random high-mid ones because they have the playstyle and tools to ruin Lucario that a lot of the top-tiers may not have

 

[Skeeter Mania]

Simply put, top tiers typically have strong neutrals, but not so great kill power.

 

[Yonder]

Wednesday Night Fights Pre-Civil War (March 23rd) (Southern California) (87 Entrants) (Category 3)
1st:

SHIG | 9B
2nd:

DNG | Kameme ,
3rd:

Shuton
4th:

CLG | VoiD
5th:

Earth ,
5th:

E2C | Tyroy
7th:

LH | K9sbruce
7th:

Kirihara
9th:

DNG | Nietono
9th:

Kome
9th:

IMT | ANTi
9th:

YG | JK
13th:

Fuwa
13th:

LH | Charliedaking
13th:

LG | Abadango
13th:

2GG | komorikiri

Aba is reaaaally starting to fall off again...Maybe he needs another main switch. Idk. But his placements just keep dropping from what I see.

 

[Ziodyne 21]

Aba is reaaaally starting to fall off again...Maybe he needs another main switch. Idk. But his placements just keep dropping from what I see.

Aba just seems to struggle a lot vs Bayo. Many of his notable losses as of late have been other Bayo mains. Losing to Zack at Genesis 4. Losing to a realatively lesser- known Bayo main BlackYoshi in the pools at Frostbite and losing to JK yesterday.

Its odd, since the vs seems rather even in theory. Than again issues with Bayo seem to be common with a lot of top of Japanese players.

FYI I would say Aba is "really falling off" He still is getting at least top 16 in many majors which is still not bad at all

 

[|RK|]

Lucario losing to Ike actually makes a lot of sense, don't know about it being his worst MU though. Ike has a lot of range + disjoint, solid kill power/options, and very strong edge guarding tools like dtilt and neutral B to punish Lucarios garbage ledge snap. Lucario struggles with long ranged disjoints in general.

|RK| There's plenty of high/top level video footage out there for most of those MU's I listed. Theory does not look good for Lucario in those MU's either.

The proper way to play all of those disjoint MUs involves extensive use of aura sphere. I don't see anyone really doing that (just like I don't see enough Mewtwo players abusing Shadow Ball).

Ike's Eruption can be avoided by using double team to stall before using extremespeed. Dtilt, less so.

And again - kill power alone doesn't dictate the Lucario MU.

 

[Bowserboy3]

I just want to bring specific point up a moment, because it seems a lot of people are confused as to why this happened.

This kill (should play at the correct time):

There are a few times in which Luma cannot act are; these include (and are not limited to) during hitstun, while holding shield, and during a roll/spotdodge/airdodge. Luma can act at most other points of the game; this includes during freefall, during a shield break animation, and most importantly in this situation, during tech and no tech animations.

In this example, Diddy's Dtilt knocks Rosalina up onto the platform above (from my testing it looks like Kirihara was DI'ing upwards, whether intentional or accidental is irrelevant; had no DI been applied Rosalina would have not been launched onto the platform and this would have been avoided), and she goes into a no tech animation (as indicated by the blue/yellow flash).

Because Rosalina landed, and Luma can act during no tech animations, he can use any of his ground moves. ZeRo got hit by Luma's Up Tilt (Kirihara was likely attempting to use Up Air after hitstun to attempt to stuff a Diddy Fair that was inevitably coming. It's either that or he had some f***ing good knowledge and awareness to pull this off).

Essentially, had Kirihara applied no DI and got launched at a lower angle, Luma wouldn't have been able to act as quickly because Rosalina would be forced to eat the full brunt of the hitstun. This specific situation essentially cancelled the hitstun/cut it in half by landing, which is what allowed Luma to act.

I'm working on a video about it (to prove somebody wrong who doesn't understand), so I might end up sharing it here later down the line.

 

[Nathan Richardson]

Er luma also can't really act when Rosalina is grabbed, or does that fall under hitstun?

 

[|RK|]

Er luma also can't really act when Rosalina is grabbed, or does that fall under hitstun?

Luma can act when Rosalina is grabbed, but not during a throw.

 

[Bowserboy3]

Indeed there are more specifics (such as misc things like during item throws etc), and I will be covering them in my video.

Just be aware that tech and no tech animations are not included in this; Luma can still act during these animations.

 

[Locke 06]

Ike's Eruption can be avoided by using double team to stall before using extremespeed. Dtilt, less so.

And Ike can just keep charging Eruption.

Extremespeed's startup can be reacted to. I've watched too much Ike/Mario to know that the "I'm going to outsmart this Ike by stalling before up-B" is just another layer of yomi. You're still in a bad spot and you can still die.

 

[The-Technique]

And Ike can just keep charging Eruption.

Extremespeed's startup can be reacted to. I've watched too much Ike/Mario to know that the "I'm going to outsmart this Ike by stalling before up-B" is just another layer of yomi. You're still in a bad spot and you can still die.

I always get tickled when Mario tries to up B early to interrupt Ike's Eruption....only to get superarmored and blown up anyway.

But yeah Ike-Lucario has always favored Ike historically, Ryo and Day used to encounter each other all the time in bracket and Ryo would just run him over with Ike. Day isn't the best Lucario, of course, but he's still one of the best if not 2nd best still.

 

[|RK|]

And Ike can just keep charging Eruption.

Extremespeed's startup can be reacted to. I've watched too much Ike/Mario to know that the "I'm going to outsmart this Ike by stalling before up-B" is just another layer of yomi. You're still in a bad spot and you can still die.

Eruption comes out frame 30. My point was depending on the angle you're coming from, you can stall out the Eruption charge. Not meant as a surprise ES.

Also, walls are useful.

 

[ARGHETH]

Eruption comes out frame 30. My point was depending on the angle you're coming from, you can stall out the Eruption charge. Not meant as a surprise ES.

Also, walls are useful.

Considering it charges for 200 frames, I'm not exactly sure how long Lucario can viably stall for. Plus, Eruption's attack is frame 30 no charge; it charges from frame 20.
Also, double team is 80 frames and Eruption, from charge to end, is 60. Ike might have enough time to react to the double team, release Eruption, and Dtilt/run offstage fair or something.

I'm also pretty sure that Wily's Castle (Omega) is the only legal stage with walls.

EDIT: Dash Attack has the same can't rebound property as Little Mac's Ftilt.

 

[Flux0r]

Luma can act when Rosalina is grabbed, but not during a throw.

Luma could actually act when Rosa was in the middle of a throw animation in the 3DS days...

Be thankful for the 1.0.4 patch.

 

[|RK|]

Considering it charges for 200 frames, I'm not exactly sure how long Lucario can viably stall for. Plus, Eruption's attack is frame 30 no charge; it charges from frame 20.
Also, double team is 80 frames and Eruption, from charge to end, is 60. Ike might have enough time to react to the double team, release Eruption, and Dtilt/run offstage fair or something.

I'm also pretty sure that Wily's Castle (Omega) is the only legal stage with walls.

EDIT: Dash Attack has the same can't rebound property as Little Mac's Ftilt.

Eruption has too much lag for that. If you're high enough during DT, it's not hard.

And you're right about the walls. Technically, FD & Dreamland have walls too, but they're too high to be useful in such a situation. First time I miss DH...

 

[Locke 06]

Also, double team is 80 frames and Eruption, from charge to end, is 60. Ike might have enough time to react to the double team, release Eruption, and Dtilt/run offstage fair or something.

Alternatively, Ike can just release eruption and start charging a new one if he's actually worried about Lucario stalling out the charge. y o m i

Either way. You're playing mind games where, if you win, you get back to the stage, and if you lose, you actually just die. Compromising to a "I'll just take a 1/2 charged eruption" is still a pretty annoying situation for a character that thrives on not taking strong hits.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Lucario trying challenge Ike's Eruption going back onto the stage is pretty much the worst thing he can do in this matchup.

 

[TriTails]

...Can't Lucario just throw an Aura Sphere at Ike charging Eruption then ES to the ledge? At high aura the stuff is humongous and Ike has to respect it. It also moves pretty slowly so more time to execute ES and fly to... wherever you need to to get back.

Eruption isn't shield cancellable, is it?

 

[Diamond Octobot]

There's that, but at a certain point, if you have enough aura, you can litterally overshoot the stage and land behind Ike. Extreme Speed's landing lag makes this very unsafe tho, so I'm not sure anyone would try. Or you could just cling to a wall with ES.Or use Force Palm if you feel like challenging Ike.

 

[|RK|]

Yeah, all of this is assuming you can't hit Ike first - that's naturally gonna be the best option.

 

[Das Koopa]

Doubles has been an absolute bloodbath.

Kome & Tsu > Aarvark & Elegant
Salem & Mew2King > ZeRo & Nairo
Larry Lurr & ANTi > Komorikiri & Ranai
Legit & Teb > NAKAT & VoiD (Twice, double eliminating Team CLG)

 

[Nidtendofreak]

There's that, but at a certain point, if you have enough aura, you can litterally overshoot the stage and land behind Ike. Extreme Speed's landing lag makes this very unsafe tho, so I'm not sure anyone would try. Or you could just cling to a wall with ES.Or use Force Palm if you feel like challenging Ike.

And in theory Ike can counter many of those options by jumping + charging instead of just charging from a standstill. Time jump for when aura sphere would be in line with stage edge. Wouldn't be using Eruption if Lucario was in Force Palm range in the first place.

Theres lots of plays and counterplays to that whole scenario, but the main point is that Ike is barely taking any risk while Lucario is gambling his life (and aura build up. Getting killed at that point will probably cost Lucario the whole match)

 

[Diamond Octobot]

And in theory Ike can counter many of those options by jumping + charging instead of just charging from a standstill. Time jump for when aura sphere would be in line with stage edge. Wouldn't be using Eruption if Lucario was in Force Palm range in the first place.

Theres lots of plays and counterplays to that whole scenario, but the main point is that Ike is barely taking any risk while Lucario is gambling his life (and aura build up. Getting killed at that point will probably cost Lucario the whole match)

If I remember properly (correct me if I'm wrong), you have to charge Eruption a bit before it reaches below the ledge. Then again Lucario can just cling to a wall and wait... Dunno how effective it is.

But all of that is just theory, and it practice going in with an aerial is often much more rewarding than trying to catch Lucario with an Eruption. I mean, his sword IS huge, after all.

 

[The-Technique]

you have to charge Eruption a bit before it reaches below the ledge.

the hitbox always hits below the ledge, or at least the hitbox lasts long enough that anyone who touches the ledge gets hit

And yeah Ike can edgeguard Lucario in other ways but charging Eruption is usually the best option, unless Lucario is recovering high enough to throw an aura sphere at Ike.

 

[ARGHETH]

Then again Lucario can just cling to a wall and wait... Dunno how effective it is.

The only legal stage with walls is omega wily's.

 

[Rizen]

The only legal stage with walls is omega wily's.

Duck Hunt too, if it's still legal.

 

[Lord Dio]

A while ago I read that an uncharged Eruption spikes. Is this true? If so, it would put even more pressure on an offstage Lucario due to the question of "Is he going to charge, or go for the spike kill? Do I have time to account for all the possibilities in time if he chooses to charge?"

Also Zinoto's beejn picked up. Here's hoping Captain Zack is next.

Doubles has been an absolute bloodbath.

Kome & Tsu > Aarvark & Elegant
Salem & Mew2King > ZeRo & Nairo
Larry Lurr & ANTi > Komorikiri & Ranai
Legit & Teb > NAKAT & VoiD (Twice, double eliminating Team CLG)

Likely been said before, but just wait until singles.
Salem and m2k beating ZeRo and nairo is a little surprising tbh.
If ranai experience is anything to go off of, I'm guessing Kome and Tsu just went right through Aarvark, then 2v1'ed Elegant. Correct?

 

[The-Technique]

A while ago I read that an uncharged Eruption spikes. Is this true? If so, it would put even more pressure on an offstage Lucario due to the question of "Is he going to charge, or go for the spike kill? Do I have time to account for all the possibilities in time if he chooses to charge?"

Also Zinoto's beejn picked up. Here's hoping Captain Zack is next.

Likely been said before, but just wait until singles.
Salem and m2k beating ZeRo and nairo is a little surprising tbh.
If ranai experience is anything to go off of, I'm guessing Kome and Tsu just went right through Aarvark, then 2v1'ed Elegant. Correct?

The data in Kurogane says so, but I've literally never performed nor seen Eruption spike throughout the entire game's lifespan.

 

[Nidtendofreak]

Eruption only spikes onstage opponents. Same thing in Brawl.

 

[Bowserboy3]

Salem and m2k beating ZeRo and nairo is a little surprising tbh.

It isn't so surprising to me to be honest.

I mean, yes, ZeRo and Nairo getting beat is not what you'd normally expect, but Salem and M2K are two very strong players.

Notably, Salem and M2K live together, right (either that or they practice together pretty much every day)? This helps because while they've likely practiced some doubles together anyway, they know exactly how eachother are going to play due to how often then play eachother. They essentially know both the characters inside out. This probably explains why Marss and Pugwest pull some insane s*** off from time to time.

It was an exciting set to watch anyway.

I was more surprised Nairo didn't go Cloud actually. Though with Bayonetta about, that's probably what stopped him.

 

[TriTails]

Frankly, most of the times Lucario gets himself offstage are gambles to himself anyway, regardless of who he is playing (Maybe not LM but D-smash can 2 frame so there's that). The whole Lucario puts his stock on the line offstage while the opponent barely takes any risks is not exclusive to Ike. That's what a whole second of landing lag and reactable startup gets you. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[DanGR]

For a decent amount of characters, intercepting Lucario's recovery presents at least a moderate risk.

Not every character has a strong attack that protects their own hurtbox on the top and middle side of their character, simultaneously (additionally, the underside if you plan to intercept offstage). If you don't cover one, there's a risk in Lucario angling his recovery to hit the side you don't protect with a hitbox. I haven't found through personal experience that these different angles are reactable at somewhat close range, but I recognize I could just be bad at it.

Getting hit on your underside or top can knock you offstage in the opposite direction where Lucario's ledge trap game has a shot at killing you. Not to mention at high aura the KB from upb might just kill you off the side.

Lucario can angle top and middle trajectories to cancel the landing lag so the cooldown isn't a concern. Trajectories that end in hitting your underside, offstage, generally aren't used because obviously they can't land onstage and cancel the landing lag if they curve around from below and fly upward (making them a sitting duck as they fall)- though you do have you consider them dipping down and then heading to the ledge as opposed to straight at it. If you plan to just upsmash at the ledge you have to be cognizant of the potential for an upward trajectory to be angled high enough that you need to react very well to the difference between it and a straight trajectory. If you just release upsmash at the straight trajectory timing when instead Lucario goes for a wrap-around, overhead, upsmash won't hit and you might die as a result. Additionally, some upsmash cooldowns give Lucario time to hit you If he goes straight to the ledge.

My point is it's not so cut and dry- specfic precautions must be taken- and recovery angle reads in the end are what will net you kills. Obviously, someone like Cloud can just jump offstage and soft read an angle with nair at no risk. Witch Twist. These cover wide angles. And the farther you go offstage to intercept, the less likely it is that Lucario will angle to go around your hitbox to hit you, so you can generally just cover the trajectory that goes straight at you in those cases.

 

[Peppermint1201]

ESAM's matchup inexperience was really laid bare in that set, which is surprising for an SFL native.

 

[TDK]

This is a big enough upset to spill into this thread:

Xzax 2-1 ZeRo

 

[chaos11011]

ESAM's matchup inexperience was really laid bare in that set, which is surprising for an SFL native.

New England has a Pikachu called DM888 who modeled his entire playstyle around ESAM. They play all the time. Despite the bad MU, Raffi was confident. Wish he clutched it out.

 

[Das Koopa]

Pool A1 analysis


Side 1:
ZeRo
DKWill
Zephyr
Xzax


Side 2:
Earth
Jerm
Nurse
Dyr
ImHip

Winner of each side fights each other in Top 96.


Upset potential towards ZeRo largely resides in Top 96 vs. Earth, and I think this is largely dependent on if Top 96 is Bo3 or Bo5. Upsets tend to be easier between skill gaps when less games are played. I'd say ZeRo's chances of being upset in the Top 128/96 is low.

Earth has had issues lately even in the U.S. While his 2016 supermajor performances are noteworthy, he struggles against a lot of tippy-top level players and is highly prone to being upset early into losers early. Jerm and Nurse are noteworthy wildcards - but Dyr and ImHip are big players to look out for.

Dyr and ImHip face off in Top 192 in a set that could likely go either way. In my opinion, Earth would probably lose to Dyr if they faced off, and Dyr may or may not have experience (through friendlies or tournaments) with Myran. I'd give him a good shot regardless since Dyr on his best days borders top 20 level gameplay, and he's increasingly improved over the last several months.

ZeRo has, by all metrics, a totally free bracket. Zephyr isn't bad by any stretch but if Komorikiri, Tweek, and Ned get shredded by ZeRo's Diddy then I don't see how Zephyr stands any chance. Xzax and DKwill present better opportunities to upset ZeRo but I don't see either happening simply because of the large skill gap.

Through Top 96:
ZeRo Upset %: 10%
Earth Upset %: 70%

i'll do this for other pools probably

sure glad I didn't waste time doing this for other pools lmao

 

[YerTheBestAROUND]

ZeRo out at 49th. 2-3 Luhtie with ZSS.

 

[L9999]

ZeRo out at 49th. 2-3 Luhtie with ZSS.

You are joking right? How could ZeRo lose? He wipes the floor with Nairo.

 

[-Tornado-]

You are joking right? How could ZeRo lose? He wipes the floor with Nairo.

Nope
Brought it back with the patented ZSS ladder

 

[TDK]

You are joking right? How could ZeRo lose? He wipes the floor with Nairo.

ZeRo was playing off today. Going into his bout with Luhtie he was super nervous (You could tell) and Xzax said he wasn't playing well either.