Official 4BR Tier List V3 - Competitive Insight & Analysis

[freeziebeatz]

PAX will be a part of OrionRank, yes. Invitationals are usually fine and all attendees were qualified

The round robin matches will probably not count though right? Like we do with all round robins in a tournament?

 

[|RK|]

and except ganon ;(


so PAX is being counted on the PGR?
Also, since it never got answered, is PAX being counted for OrionRank? Das Koopa
Tbh, it just seems kinda stupid to include invitationals like PAX for rankings. Sure, you placed 11th, but guess what? You still outplaced the other members of the Top 50 who weren't invited. This especially infuriates me because on a points based system like Cloudhead, it basically gives free points to those invited, which doesn't seem fair at all to everyone else on the system who wasn't invited.
So yeah, I think that while they are a nice form of exhibition, counting invitationals when working on a ranking system is dumb.

Yeah, invitationals have always been counted. But seems like people just noticed that, and started complaining.

To be fair, PGR has decided to count PAX (they said they would before the tournament ever started - A tier), but for future closed invitationals, they probably won't. So some will, some won't.

 

[Das Koopa]

Monthly changes:

Cloud +1%
Bayonetta +0.6%
Diddy Kong +0.4%
Corrin +0.3%
Mario +0.3%
Marth +0.2%
Sheik +0.2%
Zero Suit Samus +0.2%
Fox +0.1%
Captain Falcon +0.1%
Greninja +0.1%
Ryu +0.1%
Mewtwo = 2.9%
Mega Man = 2.1%
Pikachu = 1.9%
Bowser = 1.4%
Lucina = 1.1%
Toon Link = 1.1%
R.O.B. -0.1%
Meta Knight -0.2%
Olimar -0.2%
Lucas -0.2%
Peach -0.2%
Donkey Kong -0.2%
Other -0.3%
Ness -0.3%
Luigi -0.3%
Villager -0.3%
Sonic -0.3%
Rosalina & Luma -0.8%

Changes between Phases 4 and 5:

Bayonetta +1.5%
Diddy Kong +1.1%
Mario +0.9%
Corrin +0.7%
Sonic +0.7%
Zero Suit Samus +0.6%
Ryu +0.5%
Pikachu +0.5%
Bowser +0.4%
Mega Man +0.4%
Donkey Kong +0.1%
Peach = 1.7%
Greninja = 1.5%
Fox -0.1%
Rosalina & Luma -0.1%
Ness -0.2%
R.O.B. -0.2%
Lucina -0.2%
Toon Link -0.2%
Mewtwo -0.2%
Cloud -0.3%
Sheik -0.4%
Captaon Falcon -0.4%
Luigi -0.4%
Villager -0.5%
Meta Knight -0.5%
Lucario -0.6%
Olimar -0.7%
Marth -0.9%

Spoiler: Full Results, August/Phase 5

Bayonetta: 751.5
Diddy Kong: 731.5
Cloud: 636.5
Sheik: 481.5
Mario: 427
Sonic: 410
Fox: 407.5
Zero Suit Samus: 338.5
Rosalina & Luma: 277.5
Ryu: 249.5
Mewtwo: 228
Corrin: 194.5
Mega Man: 162
Marth: 153
Pikachu: 151
Meta Knight: 139.5
Captain Falcon: 139
Donkey Kong: 138.5
Peach: 133.5
Greninja: 121
Ness: 118
Bowser: 110.5
Luigi: 106.5
Villager: 100.5
Toon Link: 84.5
Lucina: 84
R.O.B.: 79
Olimar: 73.5
Lucas: 70.5
Samus: 66
Yoshi: 65.5
Duck Hunt: 65
Lucario: 63.5
Little Mac: 52.5
Mr. Game & Watch: 43.5
Roy: 43.5
Ike: 42.5
Pac-Man: 42
Wario: 40
Charizard: 37
Robin: 34.5
Wii Fit Trainer: 30.5
Link: 26.5
Pit: 23.5
Shulk: 22
Palutena: 18
King Dedede: 14
Falco: 12
Ganondorf: 10
Jigglypuff: 9.5
Kirby: 7
Zelda: 5
Bowser Jr.: 4
Mii Brawler: 3.5
Mii Gunner: 3
Dark Pit: 2
Dr. Mario: 0
Mii Swordfighter: LUL

Spoiler: Results, Phases 4 and 5 combined

Bayonetta: 1261
Diddy Kong: 1251
Cloud: 1169
Sheik: 921.5
Fox: 746
Mario: 714.5
Sonic: 696
Zero Suit Samus: 574
Rosalina & Luma: 508
Mewtwo: 427.5
Ryu: 418.5
Marth: 333
Corrin: 311.5
Meta Knight: 286
Captain Falcon: 280.5
Mega Man: 271
Donkey Kong: 245
Peach: 243
Pikachu: 243
Ness: 227.5
Luigi: 220
Greninja: 217.5
Villager: 213
Toon Link: 181
Olimar: 176
Bowser: 174.5
Lucina: 166
R.O.B.: 158
Lucario: 155
Duck Hunt: 124.5
Lucas: 114.5
Samus: 103.5
Yoshi: 94.5
Mr. Game & Watch: 92.5
Robin: 89
Shulk: 84.5
Pit: 82.5
Roy: 74
Wario: 72
Little Mac: 71
Ike: 69
Link: 65.5
Charizard: 65
Pac Man: 56.5
Wii Fit Trainer: 48.5
Palutena: 32.5
Falco: 27
King Dedede: 17.5
Dark Pit: 14
Mii Brawler: 12.5
Ganondorf: 11
Jigglypuff: 9.5
Kirby: 9
Zelda: 7
Dr. Mario: 7
Bowser Jr.: 5
Mii Gunner: 3
Mii Swordfighter: That dude who mains Diddy Kong

UPCOMING CHANGES - PHASE 6

Character results will be documented in the following way:

-Primaries get the full share of allotted points.
-Secondaries get half of the allotted points.
-Tertiary characters get a quarter of the allotted points.
-Dual mains have both characters with the full share of allotted points.

Definition of secondary, tertiary and dual for purposes of database collecting:

-A secondary character must be used in a set a player won.
-A tertiary character is defined as a character that won a game, but the player did not win the set.
-Dual mains will be used in cases of players who frequently use multiple characters during multiple phases of a tournament.

New USA Region Map:

New Canada Region Map:

-East Canada has been replaced with Ontario Quebec, and Atlantic Canada.
-Western Canada and British Columbia have merged and are no longer listed as a part of the PNW.
-The Southern United States has been reworked entirely. Texas and Oklahoma are now their own regions, while the Southeast has been separated into Gulf/Inland and Coastal.

Results Thread: https://smashboards.com/threads/tournament-placing-database-scoring-project.437773/

Methodology: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1xANyxbGsV8-JKT4PHyrIKbveXVqL93Y0Leb0NALmAsY/edit

Previous Month(s): https://smashboards.com/threads/4br...nsight-analysis.445990/page-143#post-21814245

 

[Nathan Richardson]

? Am I seeing things or did Zard actually move up a touch in results?

 

[Das Koopa]

Weekend Update (Will be posted to Reddit in the morning)

No comma between characters = dual
One comma between characters = secondaries
Two commas between characters - tertiary

Spoiler: MIUS: Crown Fight (September 2nd) (Midwest) (111 Entrants) (Category 2)

1st: Zinoto
2nd: Rayquaza07 ,,
3rd: Blacktwins
4th: Nero
5th: ????
5th: LOE1
7th: Nom
7th: Mystearica

Spoiler: Who’s Your Pappy #9 (September 3rd) (Northern California) (106 Entrants) (Category 2)

1st: Elegant
2nd: Vermillion
3rd: Logic
4th: Xzax
5th: DSS
5th: Lui$
7th: Rude
7th: FuTure

Spoiler: First Attack 2017 (September 1st-3rd) (Puerto Rico) (96 Entrants) (Category 2)

1st: Headshot
2nd: EKING
3rd: MightGalo
4th: Gatigod
5th: Excel_Zero
5th: Xeon ,,
7th: 420PeachIt
7th: Mini

Spoiler: Avalon U-IX (August 31st) (Netherlands) (77 Entrants) (Category 2)

1st: Mr. R ,,
2nd: iStudying
3rd: Supahsemmie
4th: S1
5th: TripleAAA
5th: Badr
7th: Ramses
7th: Cat

Spoiler: NaCL Smash Wii U Monthly (September 2nd) (Coastal Southeast) (28 Entrants) (Category 1)

1st: HyperKirby
2nd: Player-1
3rd: Ray
4th: RosaGetsFit

Spoiler: Celtic Throwdown 2017 (September 2nd-3rd) (United Kingdom) (47 Entrants) (Category 1)

1st: MagiMagi
2nd: Redslasher
3rd: Skarfelt
4th: Afro Smash

Spoiler: Jupiter League XX (September 2nd) (Italy) (42 Entrants) (Category 1)

1st: quiK
2nd: MarthForever
3rd: G-Danzee
4th: Fake

Spoiler: Hirosuma 7 (September 2nd) (Chugoku) (64 Entrants) (Category 1)

1st: Ri-ma
2nd: Kiosk
3rd: Agehasama
4th: OCEAN

Spoiler: Dragoncon 2017 (September 1st-4th) (Coastal Southeast) (39 Entrants) (Category 1)

1st: Sonido
2nd: Fatality
3rd: CC
4th: Mr. Kamikaze

Spoiler: Land of the Free 2 (September 1st) (Tristate) (45 Entrants) (Category 1)

1st: Shoyo James
2nd: Vivid
3rd: Biddy
4th: JaKaL ,,

Spoiler: Results Numbers

Diddy Kong: 22
Mario: 18.75
Cloud: 12.5
Sheik: 12
Bayonetta: 10
Fox: 8
Sonic: 7
Captain Falcon: 7
Rosalina & Luma: 5
Ryu: 3
Zero Suit Samus: 4
Luigi: 7
Samus: 7
Greninja: 5
Pikachu: 3
Mewtwo: 6
Meta Knight: 2
Roy: 5.5
Toon Link: 6
Ness: 4
Yoshi: 3
Ike: 2
Lucas: 2
R.O.B.: 1
Corrin: 1
Link: 1
Peach: 1
Bowser: 1
Donkey Kong: 0.5

 

[TDK]

-Western Canada and British Columbia have merged and are no longer listed as a part of the PNW.

Geographically, it's actually much easier for players from BC to get to the rest of the Pacific Northwest than the rest of Western Canada, thanks to a giant mountain range separating the two. This is also why BC is generally grouped with the Pacific Northwest in most smash-related things. It probably doesn't matter, but hey.

 

[Bowserboy3]

Spoiler: NaCL Smash Wii U Monthly (September 2nd) (Coastal Southeast) (28 Entrants) (Category 1)

1st: HyperKirby
2nd: Player-1
3rd: Ray
4th: RosaGetsFit

Das, what's the baseline for results to get included? I always thought you only included generally large tournaments, such as like 40+ players etc, but I see one here that's just 28 entrants.

Just asking because (while it's too late to include them now) there are some monthlies and such I go to that average just over 32-ish players. If they'd be counted I'll post in the future.

 

[Skeeter Mania]

Allow me to bring something interesting to the table!

Comprehensive Smash 4 Matchup Chart (averaged from as many recent MU charts that exists)

Sub-links

1. Simple View
2. Detail View
3. Associated Tier List
4. Rank Data
5. Best/Worst MUs
6. Interestingly Good/Bad MUs
7. Most Confident Mains (compared to opinions of opponents)

For more information, check the Reddit thread.

Some interesting notes (I didn't create this thread):

• DK and Bowser are significantly lower than what many would expect (around high-mid to low-high).
• Mario not Top 10 Kappa
• Characters such as Greninja, Lucas, Yoshi, and especially Pikachu are significantly higher than where they're commonly placed.
• Sheik has no losing MUs.
• Jiggs has no winning MUs.

 

[blackghost]

Allow me to bring something interesting to the table!

Comprehensive Smash 4 Matchup Chart (averaged from as many recent MU charts that exists)

Sub-links

1. Simple View
2. Detail View
3. Associated Tier List
4. Rank Data
5. Best/Worst MUs
6. Interestingly Good/Bad MUs
7. Most Confident Mains (compared to opinions of opponents)

For more information, check the Reddit thread.

Some interesting notes (I didn't create this thread):

• DK and Bowser are significantly lower than what many would expect (around high-mid to low-high).
• Mario not Top 10 Kappa
• Characters such as Greninja, Lucas, Yoshi, and especially Pikachu are significantly higher than where they're commonly placed.
• Sheik has no losing MUs.
• Jiggs has no winning MUs.

There is so much to unpack here. Great job with this.

 

[Skeeter Mania]

Another disclaimer: this list is very subject to change within brief moments of time.

 

[Tizio Random]

Very good job Skeeter Mania
I'll use this chart next time I need something like this. I also agree with the losing match ups for Rosa (finally someone that understands that she loses to M2). ZSS could possibly be -1 but that mu is really strange.

Also lol at the people on Reddit that s*** on my idea of making a full match up chart and then there we are. You are my savior, thank you.

 

[Bowserboy3]

Skeeter Mania - that post is fantastic, great work. Things like this really interest me, so it'll give me plenty to dig my teeth into and absorb. Thanks!

Now, I crunched a few numbers using the averaged MU chart. I only used the top 4 characters, because those are pretty much set in stone top 4 at this point. Thought I'd share what I got.

Basically, I totalled up their scores, and also got an average figure, so of course, the higher the number, the better the overall MU spread. Here's what we get (average rounded to 2 d.p.):

- TOTAL SCORE: 67, AVERAGE: 1.22
- TOTAL SCORE: 64, AVERAGE: 1.16
- TOTAL SCORE: 66, AVERAGE: 1.20
- TOTAL SCORE: 72, AVERAGE: 1.31

So, in short, Sheik has the best MU spread, and it's not just slightly the best either. Like, the differences between alll of Bayo, Diddy and Cloud are all just give or take 3 points. Sheik is a while 5 points head of Bayo, meaning she's 8 infront of Diddy, who would have the worst of this selection.

Just wanted to confirm this, because even if Bayo lost 2 or 3 MU's while Sheik didn't win any, if she beat more characters at +3 than Sheik did, that could have still meant she had a higher score than Sheik, but this isn't the case.

Sheik has the best MU spread confirmed?

Is Sheik still secretly the best character?

Discuss.

-----

Also, not sure if anyone has already asked this, but anyone care to explain what happened here?

Why did Fox just drop? Surely if it was falling out of a multi-hit he'd have got that incredibly high base knockback upwards?

 

[|RK|]

Thing about doing this average MU spread is that few people agree on much of this anyways. Just had a huge discussion on how Sheik may indeed lose a number of MUs. But that won't be reflected here.

 

[Envoy of Chaos]

Good post Skeeter, this is nice to see. I'll have to look over it when I get time (The Ness spread looks sus I'll have to examine that more) but understandably there will be some things that aren't agreed upon well.

What I find interesting is how confident alot of the lower tier mains are I can agree with Duck Hunt and Shulk and a few others but maybe not so much the others like Zelda or Kirby.

 

[my_T]

Thing about doing this average MU spread is that few people agree on much of this anyways. Just had a huge discussion on how Sheik may indeed lose a number of MUs. But that won't be reflected here.

What are these MU's that Sheik supposedly loses?

 

[FullMoon]

I can't help but find it funny how Greninja loses to everyone in the top 6 but nobody else.

It's both a good and terrible place to be in. Granted, that chart shouldn't be taken too seriously still but it's interesting data to see regardless.

 

[Das Koopa]

https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/6y86xy/smash_4_weekend_results_compilation_1_september/

Actual reddit post for weekly updates. Going to play it by ear and I may just start linking these threads here instead of doing weekly updates for both sites, but we'll see!

 

[sleepy_Nex]

I guess low tier's don't exist to Leo. Marth going even with ?

Actually a good portion of the Palus are of the opinion that Palu doesn't go even with marth but wins 55:45. The last Mu-Chart TLTC did has Marth at 55:45 too.

The thing is Marth has to space his tippers which in return allows Palutena to play at a range that she likes. She can challenge marths airials with bair or can punish his landing lag on airials in that range. She also covers Marths landing option really well with her dashattack and good range on grab. Marths juggling game also isn't that impressive against Palutena.
Only thing in which marth really has the upper hand is his ledge coverage.

Lucina has a better mu with Palu because she don't need to play at a specifiv range and has an easier time getting something going because of it. Her juggling also is more effectiv.

 

[Game7a1]

https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/6y86xy/smash_4_weekend_results_compilation_1_september/

Actual reddit post for weekly updates. Going to play it by ear and I may just start linking these threads here instead of doing weekly updates for both sites, but we'll see!

Out of curiosity, but how will you deal with odd placings such as 11th for players and characters?

 

[|RK|]

What are these MU's that Sheik supposedly loses?

Bowser, DK, potentially Ryu as well. There are other characters Salem thinks beat Sheik, but the above are the most agreeable, IMO.

 

[FeelMeUp]

No good top player of any of the characters agrees with DK or Bowser beating Sheik afaik.
Our only "bad" matchup, Rosa, has started feeling more manageable and even over time.
I don't agree with how lopsided people believe some of her winning matchups are, but I suppose that's balanced out by how they downplay the severity of others.

 

[Skeeter Mania]

What are these MU's that Sheik supposedly loses?

Popular opinion seems to be Mario, Rosalina, and Ryu.

 

[Das Koopa]

https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/6y9y9n/orionrank_late_summer_5041/

https://intheloop837.wordpress.com/2017/09/05/orionrank-late-summer-50-41/

Part 1 of 5 of OrionRank Late Summer has been released.

 

[HoSmash4]

People will say Sheik mains are too optimistic but in the massive matchup chart she still is number one if we only account the other character's matchup charts.

 

[sleepy_Nex]

What even has Mario to count as one of her worse mu?

 

[my_T]

Bowser, DK, potentially Ryu as well. There are other characters Salem thinks beat Sheik, but the above are the most agreeable, IMO.

I think Ryu goes even with Sheik but Sheik losing to DK/Bowser is a bit of a reach. At least Ryu has the frame data and obnoxious hit boxes to put up somewhat of a fight with Sheik in neutral, a much more manageable disadvantage state on top of his damage racking and KO options which have no window. Ryu actually has some decent tools to compete with Sheik.

DK/Bowser on the other hand do not. They have huge hurtboxes, slow frame data overall, they struggle more in neutral, they get smothered in disadvantage. The only saving graces in this MU is their weight, and that they have are they're kill confirms off of uthrow and a relatively generous window on Sheik. Other than that it's pretty much an up hill battle for them.

Also, most if not all of the top players that use DK think Sheik wins this MU. (can't speak for Bowser but I imagine it's the same for him)

 

[my_T]

What even has Mario to count as one of her worse mu?

I'm curious about this as well. Void usually does alright in the Mario MU. Looks even

 

[Skeeter Mania]

I'm curious about this as well. Void usually does alright in the Mario MU. Looks even

Keep in mind that I just said "popular opinion". That doesn't necessarily mean I agree with the consensus.

But as far as the MU itself, rage is the biggest contributing factor. Being light means you die to up smash at around 100-110% even without rage. Being a fast faller means you're combo food as well, and you're extremely susceptible to "jank".

At least, this is what I get.

 

[|RK|]

I mean, of course none of the top Sheiks agree. They're exactly the people who do think super highly of the character, and on that note:

I think Ryu goes even with Sheik but Sheik losing to DK/Bowser is a bit of a reach. At least Ryu has the frame data and obnoxious hit boxes to put up somewhat of a fight with Sheik in neutral, a much more manageable disadvantage state on top of his damage racking and KO options which have no window. Ryu actually has some decent tools to compete with Sheik.

DK/Bowser on the other hand do not. They have huge hurtboxes, slow frame data overall, they struggle more in neutral, they get smothered in disadvantage. The only saving graces in this MU is their weight, and that they have are they're kill confirms off of uthrow and a relatively generous window on Sheik. Other than that it's pretty much an up hill battle for them.

Also, most if not all of the top players that use DK think Sheik wins this MU. (can't speak for Bowser but I imagine it's the same for him)

While many people believe that, results have consistently shown that top Sheiks are better off not using Sheik against these characters. Their character is really good at neutral, but the fact of the matter is that DK/Bowser don't really care about winning neutral often.

Even some of the greatest players in the world won't win neutral 100% of the time. You watch Mr. R or VoiD vs a DK or Bowser, and they'll be playing to perfection much of the time. They win neutral maybe 10 times in a row. But if they make but 3 errors, they die.

Most people (Sheik players usually) think "if Sheik plays perfectly, then ______." But it's completely impossible to do so. Her design as a whole makes it really free to come back against her. People talk about all of her 100 kill setups, but none of them have proven to do the job consistently or on time. That's why even VoiD - best Sheik at killing by far - agrees that Sheik can't kill.

Unless you can convert your smothering advantage state into something that kills in a timely manner, it really doesn't matter how often you win neutral. That's why Diddy does better against the heavies, IMO. Comparable neutral, stronger traps, heavier, solid kill conditions. Sheik has a stronger neutral, but...

 

[FeelMeUp]

Maybe you'd be interested in hearing that the top 2 Sheiks aren't anywhere near good at the DK MU(Mr. R ain't bad vs Bowser though). You need to watch the others like Vinnie, Cacogen and sometimes Javi to get a more accurate representation of how things should play out

 

[R3D3MON]

Maybe you'd be interested in hearing that the top 2 Sheiks aren't anywhere near good at the DK MU(Mr. R ain't bad vs Bowser though). You need to watch the others like Vinnie, Cacogen and sometimes Javi to get a more accurate representation of how things should play out

Well said.

 

[|RK|]

Maybe you'd be interested in hearing that the top 2 Sheiks aren't anywhere near good at the DK MU(Mr. R ain't bad vs Bowser though). You need to watch the others like Vinnie, Cacogen and sometimes Javi to get a more accurate representation of how things should play out

I've seen them. Thing is, depending on the day, Mr. R and VoiD recreate the exact same scenarios. But it's simply not possible to be perfect all the time. VoiD did great vs Konga's DK at PAX, for example. But he can just as easily lose depending on the game or set.

And don't get me started on Ryu. I'm certain Locus can beat any Sheik.

Sheik is the only character, I think, where it's okay to look at her struggle vs certain characters consistently and say "yeah, well, results aside..."

 

[ぱみゅ]

Lucina is literally "Marth -1" in almost the entire list.
Great job compiling the data, it must've been really difficult.

 

[NotLiquid]

Shout outs to Das Koopa's great taste in music as well tbh

 

[Illusion.]

I'm getting the feeling a lot of the MU charts used are old. How far back did these charts go to?

 

[Envoy of Chaos]

I'm getting the feeling a lot of the MU charts used are old. How far back did these charts go to?

He said in the Reddit post it went back a year and didn't use anything past that you can tell on a few of these charts they definitely are old. He also used various players at different skill levels so that also lead to a few more interesting spreads

 

[Das Koopa]

https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/6yhz8b/orionrank_late_summer_4031/

https://intheloop837.wordpress.com/2017/09/06/orionrank-late-summer-40-31/

Part 2 of 5 of OrionRank Late Summer is out.

 

[Skeeter Mania]

He said in the Reddit post it went back a year and didn't use anything past that you can tell on a few of these charts they definitely are old. He also used various players at different skill levels so that also lead to a few more interesting spreads

It should be noted that the chart is updated upon request from Redditors posting Twitter links to recent MU charts.

 

[RonNewcomb]

Sorry for being ignorant but what does ST stand for?

SSF2T, aka Super Turbo. The SF2 abbrevations got abbreviated further. They are, in chronological order: WW, CE, HF, SSF2 or just "vanilla Super", ST, HDR, USF2. But ST is the tourney standard. Not pictured: various anniversary editions that combine multiples of those into a single game, to play, for example, CE Chun Li vs. WW Sagat.

Cue the old "Capcom can't count to three" meme.

 

[NINTENDO Galaxy]

Capcom can't count to 3 sounds hilarious, firs ttime hearing that.