i haven't done a tier list in ages
most of this isn't ordered within the tiers
-----Top-----
--------High-------
-------Viability Border 1------------ (Characters below this line could conceivably take a major but suffer from poor matchups or particular flaws to their character that make it hard to do so. Generally viable.)
--------Upper---------
--------High Mid-----------
--------------Viability Border 2---------------- (Characters below this line can probably hit top 16-top 8 at major level events or better, but it's unlikely any will win an event, either due to limitations of the character, lopsided matchups, etc. Semi-viable.)
------------Mid-------------
-----------Low Mid-----------
-------------Viability Border 3---------------- (Characters below this line will likely never do particularly well in tournament, aren't likely to be consistently viable. Severely bad matchup spreads, limited kits, extremely exploitable flaws, etc.)
-----------Low-------------
-----------Bottom------------
General ideas behind this
It's not often been discussed, but a fairly definitive "Top 6" has emerged.
ZeRo
Primary:
Secondary:
Pockets:
MKLeo
Primaries:
Secondaries:
Dabuz
Primary:
Secondary:
Pocket(?):
Nairo
Primary:
Secondaries:
Pockets:
Ally
Primary:
Pocket:
Mr. R
Primary:
Secondary:
Pocket(?):
These players generally do the best. Outside of a particularly exceptional event like Civil War where many players were eliminated early, these six players - especially as of late - have demonstrated themselves to be reliably consistent, with all but Mr. R being major winners this year.
TSM | ZeRo: 1st at Nairo Saga
EF MVG | MKLeo: 1st at GENESIS 4
RNG | Dabuz: 1st at Civil War
C9 | Ally: 1st at Greninja Saga
NRG | Nairo: 1st at Momocon 2016
Mr. R is the only player absent of winning majors, meaning I would comfortably place him in 6th, with Komorikiri probably being 7th - as he's another relatively consistent and reliable player. This isn't an attempt at a Melee comparison, this is simply how the cards have played themselves out.
I'd effectively rank these players;
ZeRo > MKLeo > Dabuz > Nairo/Ally > Mr. R
Top 3 character placements at all PGR A Tier events and S Tier events:
Priority A:
2GGC: GENESIS Saga - 1st
, 2nd
, 3rd
GENESIS 4 - 1st
, 2nd
, 3rd
2GGC: Midwest Mayhem Saga - 1st
, 2nd
, 3rd
Frostbite 2017: 1st
, 2nd
, 3rd
Frame Perfect Series 2: 1st
, 2nd
, 3rd
2GGC: Civil War: 1st
, 2nd
, 3rd
CEO Dreamland: 1st
, 2nd,
, 3rd
Umebura Japan Major: 1st
, 2nd
, 3rd
2GGC: Greninja Saga: 1st
, 2nd
, 3rd
Momocon 2017: 1st
, 2nd
, 3rd
2GGC: Nairo Saga: 1st
, 2nd
, 3rd
Priority B:
Dreamhack Austin: 1st
, 2nd
, 3rd
Royal Flush: 1st
, 2nd
, 3rd
Smash N' Splash 3: 1st
, 2nd
, 3rd
Trends emerge that are particularly successful for:
Bayonetta has overwhelmingly struggled to consistently be a threat in tournament. Captain Zack placed 4th at both GENESIS 4 and Civil War Saga, but has seen a visible, steady decline of results in the last 1-2 months with a increasing number of blunders - some possible to blame on poor bracket luck, others not. Salem has similarly been very inconsistent, with very high peaks (including a phenomenal losers run) but some pretty deep valleys.
Despite this, I'm of the belief that she retains a top 3-5 spot. We have not seen a player yet capable of combining three key factors;
-Witch Twist conversions
-With Time conversions
-Strong neutral
Bayonetta players at the top level rarely excel in all of these fields. Ikep and Zack are known for good conversions, while Salem is far more of a fundamentals-based player. Mixing these could mark a true outing of Bayonetta's potential, of which plenty exists - and I don't think the threat behind the character really lies in her planking.
For that reason, I'm willing to place her in the top 3 on the expectation that a Bayonetta will capitalize on all of her strengths in due time with the proper dedication.
Cloud has good results on all fronts, but there are a number of caveats to this that prevent me from agreeing that he's #1: Counterplay has shown to transcend traditional matchup knowledge. Japan excels at the matchup due to how common the character is in the region with a wealth of mains - Komorikiri, Masashi, Mao, RAIN, Mattun, Z-Tan, Mangalitza, and many more - all being high level.
As a result, many Cloud players hold onto secondaries, or do not solo-main. Key examples of this exist in cases of what-could-have-been or what clearly was - Leo likely never would've beaten KEN with Cloud, meaning a lack of secondary option on Leo's part would've probably led to a quick 6-0.
Cloud's recovery is not atrocious in a vacuum - he has mixup options - but it's objectively one of the worst in the game limitless nonetheless, and having to spend limit can swing momentum because the loss on limit while in disadvantage severely limits your options. As a result, it's not uncommon to see Cloud's stocks simply disappear, and in a 2 stock format, a loss of one stock early enough will probably tank you. This may be one reason the character is not especially consistent.
Your best Clouds;
MKLeo -
Tweek -
komorikiri -
Javi -
The same issue of needing secondaries does exist for other players, but some of this may simply be player counterpicking. I don't think Mario holds a dominating matchup vs. Diddy Kong, but Ally's playstyle counters ZeRo's, meaning he requires a secondary. With Cloud, I think it's a pretty clear trend that none of them are comfortable soloing the character, and he statistically does not dominate certain top level matchups nearly as you might think. He's supposedly solid vs. Sonic and Rosalina, but the best of the best of those characters can beat pretty much any Cloud with due diligence, or at east keep the set highly competitive.
Diddy Kong is its own story: A lot of people are skeptical of Diddy's status as #1 character and cite that ZeRo winning alone doesn't prove this, but this could be rebuked by pointing out that very few characters have more than one or two solid mains capable of winning events. You could challenge this by pointing out Diddy's very extensive playerbase, but nobody really ledgetraps or puts on the pressure as much as ZeRo - yet we see time and again that, outside of Lucina, his secondaries and pockets do him no good in tournament barring rare exceptions. ZeRo switching mid-set is usually a sign he is very shaken and is attempting to readjust.
In other words, ZeRo's efforts put into characters like Sheik or Cloud remain below the feats of other top players using those characters. I would not hesitate to say that, even if his Cloud could beat most of the game's playerbase, the fact that it couldn't beat Ally - while Komo and Javi both have - say a decent bit about his skill capacity with the character.
...Which simply leads me to believe that putting the right playstyle and mindset to Diddy Kong is something only ZeRo can do right now, but if anybody else could replicate it, then nobody would really suggest that Diddy Kong is an overrated character. What if Edge or Zinoto accelerate at some point and top 8 consistently at major level events? Will this be in dispute? We know the concept is theoretically possible because we already know Diddy can dominate brackets.
Comparing this to Hungrybox where Jigglypuff has an atrocious MU vs. a lot of top level players, and I think the often-cited comparison begins to fall apart - Puff is arguably overrated, with a lot of players not having matchup experience due to her being rare, meaning a particularly dedicated player - like Hbox - who has a natural talent towards his character - can be an undisputed top 3 player.
Gap by MIOM: 2 > 42 > 99
Gap by PGR: 1 > 16 > 36 > 37 > 47, with Edge absent due to prior inactivity.
The gap is even less significant when comparing the lesser amounts of consistency between Sm4sh and Melee. I see this idea brought up on Reddit quite a bit, and I strongly disagree with it. I think Diddy Kong is the best in the game at the moment.
On the other end of the spectrum, I think that it should be accepted by now that Sheik is only as good as other characters like Mario, ZSS, Rosa, etc, because her killing problems are very real. I made a brief post on Reddit a few days ago during Raito vs. Elegant;
Duck Hunt is really a terrible character. You can always pinpoint the number of times the DH player plays correctly but doesn't get the confirm because Duck Hunt is just bad at kill confirming 80% of the time.
Duck Hunt basically needs to take off an extra 40% and kills in the 150+ range while most characters can manage by 120 at the latest. Raito's an amazing player but I feel like he'd be top 30 range if he switched to a more reliable character.
It sucks because Duck Hunt is fun to watch but half the time it's like "well the player deserved the kill and they're outplaying their opponent more in neutral but the lose anyway because Duck hunt can't kill"
He's just not tournament viable if you actually want to win something. I hope he's buffed in the Switch port to be a bit more consistent in how he kills.
"Terrible" is hyperbole, but shades of what afflict him afflict Sheik, where you can totally outplay your opponent but still lose because Sheik's only good at killing in certain circumstances that you may never find yourself in, and as a result, being behind a stock is extremely painful. I think the fact that Sheik has not won a major-tier event since her nerfs are directly correlated with a lack of safe kill confirms - it was the key to making her an oppressively good character. Now she's just good, but fallible.
Sheik's main advantages over Duck Hunt are the greater consistency of the the setups, better recovery, etc., but it often seems like you have to play by different, more grueling rules in order to win playing characters like Sheik.
Hence, I place her among the list of major winners/characters that do semi-consistently well in terms of high placements at majors.
This doesn't go into the rest of my opinions at the moment, but I think that covers my opinion on where the tippy-top characters stand. ZSS, Rosa, and Mario's placements can simply be chalked up to months of consistently good performances.
Some generic add-ons:
- Probably better than some give her credit for with how good down-tilt is. Easily overwhelmed and has grossly bad frame data but her conversions aren't that bad. Still not viable, but probably more stable than Ganondorf or Dedede.
- Overrated. Terribly, terribly overrated, with his supposed top 15 status largely a 2016 relic from when Ranai was generally agreed to be a top 10 player. Ranai has not done well at events for an extended period of time, and while he has some key set wins, his long-standing track record since his frequent attendance at events has been poor. I think this reflects upon Villager being a limited character.
- okay he's not bottom 5
- Potentially underrated but probably the hardest character in the game to use effectively and a lot of his mains do not play the character as optimally as they should. As it stands I think he's on the lower end of the spectrum with potential for sleeper hit growth.