Official 4BR Tier List v2.0 - Competitive Impressions

[Luco]

Which each passing week I'm seeing a trend of MU analysis that amount to camp2win. ? Get a lead and camp2win (works in reverse with Kirby).? Needle camp2win. Every top tier (except ) can camp2win, with being the most notable one, and almost every high/mid tier can camp2win. (timeouts)(This last too are explicit examples)). Want to beat (etc)? Camp2win. Has anyone paid attention to this?

Hahaha, I've noticed this trend. Having a lead in smash 4 is really strong, we've known that since the beginning, *especially* stock leads. Playing defensively is a key aspect of high level play, and often the characters who can do that the best are the ones coming to the forefront of the meta right now.

That being said I'm beginning to become skeptical of certain keepout games, but we'll give the meta more time to evolve and see where this all goes.

 

[Yikarur]

it's not "camp2win". It's "being patient to win" and this is the main principle for almost every competitive 1on1 structure. (even real Swordfights)

 

[Drifting]

it's not "camp2win". It's "being patient to win" and this is the main principle for almost every competitive 1on1 structure. (even real Swordfights)

You play defensive egg-camp Yoshi?

 

[Sinister Slush]

Defensive projectile heavy Yoshi honestly can't work well. The reasoning is because of 3 major problems with egg toss. (can branch into more but 3 is gud enuff for now)

1. Horrible endlag that people to this day still do not punish as often as they should for some reason.
2. Requires him to be in the air to have any good distance for the egg toss, and generally being in the air while the opponent is under you still is putting yourself at a disadvantage regardless of their ground speed.
3. His eggs have between a 4/10 chance of it hitting for .5% (at least for me with how common they happen)

Egg toss is usually used to read a ledge option to get a free fair spike, or if the opponent is in the air/offstage to force an airdodge into an aerial that'll kill, whether it's a spike offstage getting the long awaited Uair kill or landing a meaty Nair.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

I don't think running away in hopes of winning via timeout is a very viable strategy in smash 4.

Running away to test to opponent's patience from time to time and bait him into doing something unsafe though? Now that's totally legit and will make your life a whole lot easier against opponents below your own level in particular.

 

[verbatim]

Which each passing week I'm seeing a trend of MU analysis that amount to camp2win. ? Get a lead and camp2win (works in reverse with Kirby).? Needle camp2win. Every top tier (except ) can camp2win, with being the most notable one, and almost every high/mid tier can camp2win. (timeouts)(This last too are explicit examples)). Want to beat (etc)? Camp2win. Has anyone paid attention to this? And about Ryu, the reason people don't camp him is because 1) no ones bothers to learn the MU 2) because the optimal way is not "hype" and they rather die to rage Shoryuken in interactions that should never happen. It's incredible he is in the upper part of the results list because sometimes I forget he exists.

I'd like to point out that people who win don't commit to the timeout very early into the match.

Many of those characters have great punish and keep away games and bad approach games. If they have the lead and are playing safe and the opponent never commits or gets caught with a game ending punish the match will hit the 30 second mark, at which point most people start thinking about just waiting it out.


Except for Lucario, why is he in the time out category?

 

[KakuCP9]

I think he's more classified as a time bomb than timeout who uses the whole patient shick in a similar manner.

 

[L9999]

I'd like to point out that people who win don't commit to the timeout very early into the match.

Many of those characters have great punish and keep away games and bad approach games. If they have the lead and are playing safe and the opponent never commits or gets caught with a game ending punish the match will hit the 30 second mark, at which point most people start thinking about just waiting it out.


Except for Lucario, why is he in the time out category?

If Lucario reaches 150% he doesn't have a single reason to approach at all. He has the luxury of throwing killer projectiles from the other side of the stage and throw out his huge Side B.

 

[NegaNixx]

I think it's more, take a lead, force an approach then optimize a punish on the opponents mistakes. You're being proactive, and forcing them to do something they don't want to do. It's not so much camping.

On another note, ZSS' match up records versus the other top tiers, I took dabuz's advice and added the actual sets played.

Zero Suit Samus vs:

Spoiler: Bayonetta (8-12)

3-0 Nairo vs Pink Fresh KTARXVIII
2-3 Marss vs Pink Fresh 2GGT:KS
3-1 Marss vs Pink Fresh 2GGT:KS
0-3 Marss vs Pink Fresh 2GGT:KS
0-2 V115 vs saj SSC2
0-3 Nairo vs Salem CXIV

Spoiler: Cloud Strife (20-5)

3-0 Nairo vs Mew2King EGLX
3-1 Nairo vs Mew2King GOML
3-1 Nairo vs Mew2King MoCon
3-1 Nairo vs Tweek KTARXVIII
3-1 Marss vs James Apex2K16
2-0 Marss vs Ned EVO2K16
3-1 Marss vs Tweek SSC2

Spoiler: Diddy Kong (10-17)

1-0 Nairo vs AnTi GOML
0-3 Nairo vs ZeRo GOML
2-3 Marss vs Nietono Apex2K16
2-3 Nairo vs ZeRo LTC4
1-3 Nairo vs ZeRo LTC4
0-2 Nairo vs Zinoto CEO2K16
1-2 Marss vs dyr EVO2K16
3-1 Marss vs JJRockets Shine

Spoiler: Fox Mcloud (10-6)

3-1 Nairo vs Xzax LVLUP
2-0 Nairo vs Ksev CEO2K16
1-2 Nairo vs Larry Lurr EVO2K16
3-0 Marss vs Larry Lurr 2GGT:KS
1-3 Marss vs Larry Lurr Shine

Spoiler: Mario (9-5)

0-3 Nairo vs Ally EGLX
3-0 Nairo vs Ally EGLX
1-0 Nairo vs AnTi GOML
3-2 Nairo vs Ally MoCon
2-0 Nairo vs FILIP

Spoiler: Mewtwo (0-2)

0-2 quiK vs Rich Brown Syndicate

Spoiler: Rosalina & Luma (11-6)

3-2 Nairo vs Dabuz KTARXVIII
3-1 Nairo vs Dabuz KTARXVIII
1-2 Nairo vs falln CEO2K16
2-0 Nairo vs Dabuz SSC2
1-3 Nairo vs Dabuz U.S.A.T.

Spoiler: Sheik (25-14)

3-1 Nairo vs VoiD LVLUP
3-2 Nairo vs VoiD LVLUP
1-0 Nairo vs AnTi GOML
3-2 Nairo vs VoiD KTARXVIII
2-3 Marss vs VoiD Apex2K16
1-0 Marss vs False 2GGT:KS
3-1 Marss vs VoiD 2GGT:KS
3-2 Nairo vs VoiD SSC2
3-2 Nairo vs Mr. R SSC2
3-1 Nairo vs Mr. R U.S.A.T.

Spoiler: Sonic the Hedgehog (17-8)

3-1 Nairo vs Kid Goggles EGLX
3-0 Nairo vs SuperGirlKels EGLX
3-0 Nairo vs Wrath MoCon
3-0 Nairo vs 6WX KTARXVIII
2-3 quik vs Ixis Nagus
3-1 Nairo vs 6WX SSC2
0-3 Nairo vs KEN U.S.A.T.

•Bayonetta (8-12) 40% Win Rate
•Cloud Strife (20-5) 80% Win Rate
•Diddy Kong (10-17) 37% Win Rate
•Fox Mcloud (10-6) 63% Win Rate
•Mario (9-5) 64% Win Rate
•Mewtwo (0-2) 0% Win Rate
•Rosalina & Luma (11-6) 65% Win Rate
•Sheik (25-14) 64% Win Rate
•Sonic the Hedgehog (17-8) 68% Win Rate

Players Included: Nairo, Marss, quiK
Other Notable Players: AnTi, Dakpo, Nick Riddle, Chico, V115

 

[ぱみゅ]

Which each passing week I'm seeing a trend of MU analysis that amount to camp2win. ? Get a lead and camp2win (works in reverse with Kirby).? Needle camp2win. Every top tier (except ) can camp2win, with being the most notable one, and almost every high/mid tier can camp2win. (timeouts)(This last too are explicit examples)). Want to beat (etc)? Camp2win. Has anyone paid attention to this? And about Ryu, the reason people don't camp him is because 1) no ones bothers to learn the MU 2) because the optimal way is not "hype" and they rather die to rage Shoryuken in interactions that should never happen. It's incredible he is in the upper part of the results list because sometimes I forget he exists.

That set of Mr. R vs Kamemushi at Umebura SAT?
I remember that, while watching it, I kept saying to myself "why is Mr. R not Needle camping more? He's just getting hit over and over by the Metal Blade and getting outspaced by Megaman's aerials".

 

[Ethan7]

Does anyone know any sets where a top could successfully needle camp to win over another top player on the same level as the Sheik?

 

[Nidtendofreak]

•Bayonetta (8-12) 40% Win Rate
•Cloud Strife (20-5) 80% Win Rate
•Diddy Kong (10-17) 37% Win Rate
•Fox Mcloud (10-6) 63% Win Rate
•Mario (9-5) 64% Win Rate
•Mewtwo (0-2) 0% Win Rate
•Rosalina & Luma (11-6) 65% Win Rate
•Sheik (25-14) 64% Win Rate
•Sonic the Hedgehog (17-8) 68% Win Rate

Players Included: Nairo, Marss, quiK
Other Notable Players: AnTi, Dakpo, Nick Riddle, Chico, V115

Just interesting to note: if you were to translate those % into MU numbers (in the traditional sense of "how many wins out of 100 sets would you expect"), you'd get something like this:

ZSS vs Character
4-6 Bayonetta
8-2 Cloud
4-6 Diddy (Possibly 35-65)
60-40 Fox (Possibly 65-35)
65-35 Mario
Not enough data for Mewtwo, but looking ugly in the current tiny sample size
65-35 Rosalina
65-35 Sheik
65-35 Sonic

Obviously more factors involved in actual MU numbers than raw results (gotta accommodate for small but important differences in skill levels even at high level of play, stage list changes between tournaments if applicable, differences in stock count in tournament settings if applicable, a look at what the on paper says, etc), but its interesting to look at when compared with what people claim a character's MU spread is. The Cloud and Sheik ones are particularly interesting, considering those are also the ones with the most games played so arguably closer to reality than say, the Fox or Mario ones.

 

[ReRaze]

Does anyone know any sets where a top could successfully needle camp to win over another top player on the same level?

Pretty much most of Pre-Nerf ZeRo's , I think its one of the things that made him a cut above the rest, he wasn't hesitant to sit back and charge/throw needles although with that being said though, it wasn't exactly that he was camping, rather it was like Yikarur said, he was just being patient and only rushing in when he thought he could get a punish.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=N9p9ZCoeYXg ZeRo vs Ranai at Genesis 3 is still a great set to watch even by the current standard of play, and I think a huge part of of ZeRo's win was how patient he was. He hardly overextended often opting to just roll back and charge needles. It was simple but effective. In contrast we have Void and Mr.R's high octane technical gameplay (which is 100x more fun to watch) but arguably not as optimal.

Although I do enjoy watching Shiek I'm not a Sheik main so if I've said anything wrong, someone do correct me.

 

[Ethan7]

ZeRo vs Ranai at Genesis 3 is still a great set to watch even by the current standard of play

I literally just watched that set around an hour ago. Of course, I am looking for sets in the current meta, and ZeRo's needle camping didn't totally invalidate Ranai's Villager anyways. Villager doesn't look like a match-up where Sheik can easily rack up free damage with needles throughout the match.

I don't think it is that simple for top Sheiks to win many match-ups by simply using needles effectively like I hear people say here. They are ways around them and they aren't unbeatable.

 

[Megamang]

With rage bringing kill setups into lower and lower ranges as the game drags on, its usually better to use an opening to start something significant rather than just repeatedly adding chip damage. "Calculated Aggression". If you pass up chances to win, your chances to lose increases. That doesnt say you should give the *enemy* chances to win with unsafe moves; actually you should wait for them to do this and punish, provided you have the lead.


In other words, giving up advantage to throw a projectile is mathematically unsmart. This of course is a little different with characters that kill with a projectile, or continue advantage. Prepatch shiek was... different. She was at advantage being across the stage, since you'd have to slough through a blizzard of needles which pop you into the air if you got tapped.

Matter of fact, we'd do well to look at some neutrals this way. If your char decisively wins neutral, a reset is a good choice. On the other hand, campy play aint doing **** for bowser, who should just press his aggression and end it before he gets juggled. Perhaps some bias as air shooter tears bowser up.

 

[blackghost]

Kodystri, PKBlueberry, and Jebb put together a lucas matchup chart. These are the top lucas mains in NA(wonder why mekos wasnt consulted)

this is the first time in a million times i agree with bayo at 50:50 game plan is easy keep her out and then use a kill throw or kill throw combo. if you keep her away you win if you dont you lose. lucas shouldnt get witch timed much if at all either.

 

[NairWizard]

The point about chip damage is very important.

You shouldn't be playing to not lose.

You should be playing to win.

If you have to lose an exchange just so that you don't hit your opponent out of kill percent, do that.

Many wars are lost because of obsession with winning battles.

 

[Megamang]

That is very true. Another example, ive heard top players say they wait to capitalize on a read until the reward is high. Maybe dont charge smash their spotdodge at 40%, maybe only do it later in the set when the game gets close and you need that early kill.

 

[verbatim]

If Lucario reaches 150% he doesn't have a single reason to approach at all. He has the luxury of throwing killer projectiles from the other side of the stage and throw out his huge Side B.

Lucario still has a big disadvantage state. If he ever times someone out it's because the other character has a bad approach game, not because he has a good keep away game.

Not that I've ever seen a Lucario time someone out, I would non-sarcastically like to watch one if ti exists on the Internet though.

 

[freeziebeatz]

 

[Mister M]

Many

The point about chip damage is very important.

You shouldn't be playing to not lose.

You should be playing to win.

If you have to lose an exchange just so that you don't hit your opponent out of kill percent, do that.

Many wars are lost because of obsession with winning battles.

Many pre patch meta knights aspired to this for them ladders.

But with the clock, stock cap throws, and often rage backing some already viscous moves, Characters may not be able to afford to takes hit to preserve set ups. Especially characters who struggle out of their disadvantage.

I theorise if you can consistently win the neutral, you shouldn't need ever to be getting hit. If crouch cancel was worth it, maybe though.

I think it's more of an idealistic strategy, but does anyone know of any high level sets where taking hits on the chin ultimately won the game?

 

[Radical Larry]

We have two options:
Ignore this MU chart and pretend like this was never posted and doesn't exist.
Or go off on a tangent on how bad or inaccurate it is.

 

[Fenny]

for some reason I can't see pictures like MU charts on here in general anymore rip

 

[FamilyTeam]

Well, other than the fact that this is yet another MU chart from Reddit...
I do not believe Mario loses to Cloud but that probably is some sort of thing dragged over from the Cloud MU chart.

You see, Marcina being positive against Mario is a bit of an interesting thing, to me. I am sure most of you can probably tell I dual-main Mario and Lucina, and I definitely felt like I was one of the only people left in the entire community that felt like Mario lost that MU, even if slightly. I can actually see very well where people are coming from when they say this MU is Even, because Mario does have much better mobility than the two of them and most Marios tend to win against Marths in tournament, surprisingly enough. But when some people say Marcina could win this, it is because, if you are smart enough, you can always keep Mario at an arms reach and constantly outrange him with your disjoint. Also, in case you get an edgeguard going, although it is hard to hit Mario, the reward can be big. I don't think people realise what really makes Mario's recovery go far is his airspeed and the double jump. His Super Jump Punch covers an okay distance and goes in a rather set path. If you intercept his double jump, a lot of times you can make him go through a really dumb path back to the ledge or you can make him unable to recover outright. Edgeguarding is one of Marcina's biggest assets, so, they have that going for them. Also, Marcina is rather floaty so for some it can be harder to combo them, and they have a fast kill move in Dolphin Slash which can get them out of combos if you get enough room. Again, I can still understand why some would think it's even, but these are some of the reasons why people think it could potentially be in Marcina's favour even if slightly.
Other than a couple of matchups that I think should be higher or lower, the list is alright.

 

[Megamang]

Speaking of pressing advantage vs chip damage... holy hell is FLUDD good. And still so underutilized. DunnoBro has some amazingly optimized flowchart stuff on the mario boards.

My favorite is the uthrow stuff. Basically, he has found the optimal response to jumping away is blasting them with water.

How many characters can directly punish jump away? Not many. It destroys banana pluck, skewing the risk reward such that zero doesnt even use banana vs Ally, last i saw. (it cant be because of Cape, what a mediocre reflector/ incredible gimping tool) Specials get momentum boosted and that can be really rough for some characters.


And greninja has a focused, damaging fludd. The damage means it can kill off the ceiling, a rewarding and hilarious kill.

Optimizing combos is pretty obvious and objective. Optimizing taking stage presence, responding to escape optios... that will continue to improve. This is a big reason i think mediocre recoveries will be damning in the long run.

 

[FamilyTeam]

Speaking of pressing advantage vs chip damage... holy hell is FLUDD good. And still so underutilized. DunnoBro has some amazingly optimized flowchart stuff on the mario boards.

My favorite is the uthrow stuff. Basically, he has found the optimal response to jumping away is blasting them with water.

How many characters can directly punish jump away? Not many. It destroys banana pluck, skewing the risk reward such that zero doesnt even use banana vs Ally, last i saw. (it cant be because of Cape, what a mediocre reflector/ incredible gimping tool) Specials get momentum boosted and that can be really rough for some characters.


And greninja has a focused, damaging fludd. The damage means it can kill off the ceiling, a rewarding and hilarious kill.

Optimizing combos is pretty obvious and objective. Optimizing taking stage presence, responding to escape optios... that will continue to improve. This is a big reason i think mediocre recoveries will be damning in the long run.

FLUDD's been getting far more recognition. As long as you always find time to keep it charged to some level and use it smartly, it's always good.

 

[blackghost]

FLUDD's been getting far more recognition. As long as you always find time to keep it charged to some level and use it smartly, it's always good.

yeah the doubles gimmicks are great in addition to loling characters recoveires.

 

[Deleted member]

Anyone notice how a lot of matchup charts tend to have common trends, or that the people who tend to make them take a shot in the dark when it comes to regarding certain characters instead of having the humility to admit they lack significant matchup experience with them? It's pretty dumb.

 

[Shaya]

Being aggressive or having strong offensive pressure is very very very very difficult (technically and mentally).
Top level players coming from a Brawl background have generally been able to use their offensive potency skills in a game which in it's earlier stages was a lot more potent (I would say we're getting to a point where it is not*). From discussions during the high-days of Brawl, you could be successful with aggression in Brawl but generally only against those roughly a tier of skill below you (or that you excessively know the player/character MU for). This wasn't constant as some of the uber defensive players from Brawl rarely bothered to maintain offensive skills; but when it came to top level vs top level there were no exceptions to both players opting for passive/defense other than.... Nairo, And Nairo is a particularly special player in this regard.

The general attempt to emulate the best players in Smash4 is novel and was mostly doomed to failure. But, hilariously, people are going to hence be locked into "I'm only going to hold away when I jump" (walk forward), "I'm only going to dash if I'm at a distance that I'll be able to shield first" (dash grab), "I'll back roll after every pseudo safe commitment" (condition so they continue rolling even when you aren't in commitment yourself), but it's not as difficult as it seems to demolish players who have little else. I'd rather know I can get away with doing whatever I want taking space and avoiding a nair OoS (or whatever other easy to buffer 'pseudo safe' committal option people crutch on) than people actually attempting to punish me and hence second guessing what I'm doing (instead 'oh my timing was off, oh nice mix up, I can still play to avoid that').

*most chars having a solid (cookie-cutter) throw option and low start up tilt for good damage and significant positional advantage carries players to reaching base competency quite quickly.

Fortunately, ability to apply aggressive pressure scales very well with doubles (close to even with passive skills, contrasting to singles being like 60/40 to 70/30) and when the defensive strategies in this game stabilize, MU development and understanding will be easier.
Although for a long time we're going to deal with rudimentary 'well if I NEVER DO ANYTHING BUT X THEY CAN NEVER WIN/DO ANYTHING EITHER, HURR'. Bless.

 

[Nobie]

Earlier there was talk about Lucario being a dangerous time-out character because of how difficult he is to approach. But isn't Lucario pretty much the opposite of a character who runs the clock?

There are only two scenarios where Lucario can actually truly "run away." The first is when he has the stock lead AND he's at high percent, because the opponent doesn't want to risk getting hit by a Force Palm grab at 50% and dying, but they have no choice otherwise. The second is when both characters are at high percent, but Lucario's just at a slightly lower percent.

Basically, a character who relies on being at high percent to be at his scariest is hardly an issue when the determining factor when the clock winds down is WHO HAS LESS DAMAGE AND MORE STOCKS. Lucario is built for comebacks, certainly, but those comebacks don't magically reverse how official rules work.

On another note, I attended a weekly today after months of no real tournament outings (or even Anther's Ladder practice), and quite predictably I got 0-2'd in bracket. In other words, this is what happens when you don't practice for long stretches and the competitive level of everyone around you continues to grow. It's hard to be salty when the result is hardly surprising.

However, this got me thinking about how difficult it is, even for people who practice and train daily, to actually be able to commit all of their knowledge to both mental and physical memory. For example, I know how to fight Yoshi as Mewtwo, or at least I've worked out the details of the matchup in the past. It's a lot of spacing, taking advantage of Yoshi's lack of disjoints, challenging fair with fair, and not underestimating Yoshi's landing lag. That's all well and good, but I couldn't summon up the knowledge when it mattered, due to rust on top of my opponent having clearly trained better and more frequently.

That's just me, no one special. But even the best of the best players can only have so much experience versus strong players of each character...in a cast of 58 characters. Cut out the low tiers and the Miis...and you still have a gigantic list of threats that you simply cannot sleep on. I think this is why you often see top players doing "dumb" things, because their knowledge of the roster is inevitably going to be uneven, and unfamiliar situations can bring about bad habits. The main one I always think of is seeing Abadango panic roll as Mewtwo, which is an absolute death sentence. But if even the strongest Mewtwo in the world falls victim to it sometimes, then what hope does the average player have?

Melee requires players keep their tech skill sharp. I wonder if Smash 4 requires players to keep their knowledge fresh and ingrained in their fingers.

 

[Megamang]

And the flow of misinformation that results from the huge cast surely doesnt help. How often do you hear incomplete advice about this game? If youre good enough to beat 95% of the players of mid tiers you face, you'll probably internalize some MU ideas that are, at best, only effective to a limited extent. At worse, you may be playing into a good players trap unknowingly.


I know ive fallen victim to this. Shield vs tl, beats everything right? You should have seen my face when the first good tl i played didn't just plink on my shield uselessly. He stood there, pulled a bomb when its timer would outlast my shield... and just waited. Oops.


Imagine that combined with the other idea of players holding onto an advantage till it can win you the game. You might spend 99% of your time holding onto a tidbit that ultimately gets you killed.


Then the mains of that mid tier call you dumb on twitch chat.

 

[TheGoodGuava]

Shield stops Toon Link from getting raw damage but it does allow him to pressure you until either A. You stop shielding and get hit by something or B. Your shield breaks. He actually has a few shield break setups, my personal favorites are returning boomarang > z dropped bomb > upsmash and z dropped bomb > fsmash. Then he gets a stock as low as 30% from a spike combo or a fully charged fsmash ~60 because you thought you could just shield him for free

 

[outfoxd]

And the flow of misinformation that results from the huge cast surely doesnt help. How often do you hear incomplete advice about this game? If youre good enough to beat 95% of the players of mid tiers you face, you'll probably internalize some MU ideas that are, at best, only effective to a limited extent. At worse, you may be playing into a good players trap unknowingly.


I know ive fallen victim to this. Shield vs tl, beats everything right? You should have seen my face when the first good tl i played didn't just plink on my shield uselessly. He stood there, pulled a bomb when its timer would outlast my shield... and just waited. Oops.


Imagine that combined with the other idea of players holding onto an advantage till it can win you the game. You might spend 99% of your time holding onto a tidbit that ultimately gets you killed.


Then the mains of that mid tier call you dumb on twitch chat.

I had this problem awhile back. I played a good Fox in friendlies who had the standard pressure and punish playstyle with DH, did well enough to think I'd be fine for my upcoming match with another in bracket pools.

Then the Fox i actually played showed his reflector and generally focused on shutting my projectile game down instead of overpowering it, which literally no other Fox before him had done to me. He forced me to my B game, and since my boxing is underdeveloped to begin with i didn't start figuring it out until late game 2 when it was too late.

It was like an outboxer getting his jab neutralized by a skilled infighter and looking lost in the clinch. Sometimes the best way to beat somebody is force them somewhere underdeveloped. And in this game where could run into anything, you need a solid Plan B.

 

[Deleted member]

In order news, 2GGT: Abadango Saga has now hit 561 entrants. What category is this going to be on your rankings @Das Koopa ?

 

[Jamurai]

So my opinion of Olimar has always (passively) been pretty low. Maybe it's because of his fall from grace from Brawl, although as an MK main I should be slapping myself for that; maybe it's because his top mains in the US have spoken about him having glaring flaws (@Dabuz, @Angbad) or have all but dropped him for other characters (Rich Brown); maybe it's because he doesn't seem to do much that's notable at big events with big coverage so I'm subconsciously inclined to think he's rather forgettable.

But something's stuck out to me recently. Or rather, someone: Shuton, the Japanese solo-Olimar who seems to wreck at every tournament he attends. Let me list his recent achievements according to @Das Koopa's results database:

• 2nd @ Umebura 22 (April 23rd, 2016) (Tokyo, Japan) (200 Entrants) (Category 2)
• 1st @ Shulla-Bra (July 16th) (Fukuoka, Japan) (88 Entrants) (Category 1)
• 2nd @ Sumabato for The Big House (July 30th-31st) (Japan) (211 Entrants) (Category 2)
• 9th @ Umebura S.A.T. (August 20th-21st) (Japan) (300 Entrants) (Category 3)
• 1st @ Hirosuma 5 (Sept 18th 2016) (Japan) (80 Entrants) (Category 1?)

I'm not sure who exactly he has beaten at these tournaments, but I know he has wins over the likes of Kamemushi, Nietono, Choco and Komorikiri. He has outplaced virtually every top Japanese player at some point apart from possibly KEN.

I believe Angbad once said once people figure out the Olimar matchup he should be around bottom tier. But in Japan, the land where Olimar isn't really uncommon and the culture is for all players to help each other and improve (including in matchups), I doubt that this is a case of matchup inexperience.
I believe Dabuz said that Olimar's prowess depends significantly on which stage he's on; on some stages he's good, on others, he's terrible. How does Shuton place so consistently (in Japan, no less) if this is the case?

I haven't watched any of his sets to be honest, but I'm not sure I'd be able to understand what he does differently anyway, as I don't know much about the character (like a lot of people, I'd wager). My question is ultimately: what is Shuton doing that's different? Is he a more advanced Olimar than any other, is he just an absurdly good Smash player, or both?

Tagging Myran as well for his opinion if he is willing.

Sets:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WzyvNfIZOoA - vs Kamemushi @ Umebura 22
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzZm1N70ttc - vs Nietono @ Umebura 22
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRJOgZKif_M - vs Masashi @ Shulla-Bra
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhkIAn5s9II - vs Choco @ Sumabato for TBH
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3c5ARsXd0Og - vs Komorikiri @ Umebura SAT
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_d1tIpybbX4 - vs Taiheita @ Umebura SAT
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQUgz9R48Ng - vs 9B @ Hirosuma 5
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eotXK6zqHAo - vs HIKARU @ Hirosuma 5

 

[Myran]

So my opinion of Olimar has always (passively) been pretty low. Maybe it's because of his fall from grace from Brawl, although as an MK main I should be slapping myself for that; maybe it's because his top mains in the US have spoken about him having glaring flaws (@Dabuz, @Angbad) or have all but dropped him for other characters (Rich Brown); maybe it's because he doesn't seem to do much that's notable at big events with big coverage so I'm subconsciously inclined to think he's rather forgettable.

But something's stuck out to me recently. Or rather, someone: Shuton, the Japanese solo-Olimar who seems to wreck at every tournament he attends. Let me list his recent achievements according to @Das Koopa's results database:

• 2nd @ Umebura 22 (April 23rd, 2016) (Tokyo, Japan) (200 Entrants) (Category 2)
• 1st @ Shulla-Bra (July 16th) (Fukuoka, Japan) (88 Entrants) (Category 1)
• 2nd @ Sumabato for The Big House (July 30th-31st) (Japan) (211 Entrants) (Category 2)
• 9th @ Umebura S.A.T. (August 20th-21st) (Japan) (300 Entrants) (Category 3)
• 1st @ Hirosuma 5 (Sept 18th 2016) (Japan) (80 Entrants) (Category 1?)

I'm not sure who exactly he has beaten at these tournaments, but I know he has wins over the likes of Kamemushi, Nietono, Choco and Komorikiri. He has outplaced virtually every top Japanese player at some point apart from possibly KEN.

I believe Angbad once said once people figure out the Olimar matchup he should be around bottom tier. But in Japan, the land where Olimar isn't really uncommon and the culture is for all players to help each other and improve (including in matchups), I doubt that this is a case of matchup inexperience.
I believe Dabuz said that Olimar's prowess depends significantly on which stage he's on; on some stages he's good, on others, he's terrible. How does Shuton place so consistently (in Japan, no less) if this is the case?

I haven't watched any of his sets to be honest, but I'm not sure I'd be able to understand what he does differently anyway, as I don't know much about the character (like a lot of people, I'd wager). My question is ultimately: what is Shuton doing that's different? Is he a more advanced Olimar than any other, is he just an absurdly good Smash player, or both?

Tagging Myran as well for his opinion if he is willing.

Sets:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WzyvNfIZOoA - vs Kamemushi @ Umebura 22
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzZm1N70ttc - vs Nietono @ Umebura 22
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRJOgZKif_M - vs Masashi @ Shulla-Bra
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhkIAn5s9II - vs Choco @ Sumabato for TBH
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3c5ARsXd0Og - vs Komorikiri @ Umebura SAT
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_d1tIpybbX4 - vs Taiheita @ Umebura SAT
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQUgz9R48Ng - vs 9B @ Hirosuma 5
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eotXK6zqHAo - vs HIKARU @ Hirosuma 5

I've been preaching that Olimar was good just as long as they've been saying the opposite, but no one cared to listen to my opinion for some reason. Heck I wouldn't even haven't counted Dabuz's opinion for the longest time since he barely played the character back then. As for what Shuton does I'd say he just capitalizes on his opponents mistakes and makes some pretty good reads. I watch his matches quite a bit, and it looks like he just gets away with so much more than I'd imagine. He plays aggro which I do as well, but it sometimes feels like his opponent doesn't expect him to keep swinging at them. I also never see him try to 2 frame dsmash with yellows since he doesn't like using them. I think he's good, but there's definitely more tools he could be using.

Also an extra tidbit I forgot. Most top Olimar mains barely travel to nationals out of their state. I haven't been to a tournament out of state since Apex 2015. All I really have for nationals is CEO at this point.

TL;DR Olimar is good, was good before Shuton. Stop believing a couple cynical people.

 

[NegaNixx]

Sonic vs Everyone that matters

Sonic the Hedgehog vs:

Spoiler: Bayonetta (2-8)

1-2 True Blue vs saj CEO2K16
1-3 Seagull Joe vs Pink Fresh MM4
0-3 6WX vs Salem Smashadelphia

Spoiler: Cloud Strife (13-16)

0-2 Wrath vs Ally MoCon
1-3 6WX vs Tweek KTARXVIII
2-1 SuperGirlKels vs Mew2King Apex2K16
1-2 6WX vs James Apex2K16
0-3 SuperGirlKels vs Mew2King Apex2K16
2-0 6WX vs Tweek SSC2
0-2 Seagull Joe vs Tweek SSC2
2-1 SuperGirlKels vs James SSC2
3-1 6WX vs Mew2King Shine
2-1 IxisNaugus vs Purple-H Syndicate

Spoiler: Diddy Kong (19-18)

2-1 Seagull Joe vs Zinoto MM4
0-2 Brawlman1K vs ZeRo CEO2K16
1-3 Wrath vs ZeRo CEO2K16
0-2 KEN vs ZeRo EVO2K16
2-1 Seagull Joe vs JJRockets SSC2
2-0 6WX vs Player-1 SSC2
2-0 Seagull Joe vs Player-1 SSC2
2-1 SuperGirlKels vs MVD SSC2
2-3 6WX vs ZeRo CXIV
2-3 SuperGirlKels vs dyr Shine
2-1 KEN vs Nietono Um25

Spoiler: Fox Mcloud (4-1)

2-0 Espy vs Grim Turtle Impact
2-1 Espy vs MegaFox Impact

Spoiler: Mario (9-10)

0-3 Ally vs SuperGirlKels EGLX
2-0 Wrath vs Ally MoCon
1-0 Wrath vs Ally MoCon
3-2 6WX vs Ally MM4
0-2 6WX vs Ally
1-2 Seagull Joe vs Ally SSC2
2-1 6WX vs Ally SSC2

Spoiler: Mewtwo (2-3)

2-1 Wrath vs Rich Brown CEO2K16
0-2 SuperGirlKels vs Abadango SSC2

Spoiler: Rosalina & Luma (7-9)

0-3 SuperGirlKels vs Dabuz Apex2K16
1-3 6WX vs Dabuz SSC2
3-1 KEN vs Dabuz U.S.A.T.
3-0 KEN vs Dabuz U.S.A.T.
0-2 KEN vs Kirahira Um25

Spoiler: Sheik (5-10)

0-2 6WX vs VoiD
1-2 Seagull Joe vs Vinnie MoCon
2-1 Wrath vs K9sbruce CEO2K16
0-2 6WX vs Trevnote CCC
2-1 Brawlman1K vs Master Raven SSC2
0-2 Komorikiri vs Mr. R U.S.A.T.

Spoiler: Zero Suit Samus (6-13)

0-1 Nairo vs SuperGirlKels EGLX
0-3 Wrath vs Nairo MoCon
0-3 6WX vs Nairo KTARXVIII
1-3 6WX vs Nairo SSC2
3-0 KEN vs Nairo U.S.A.T.
1-1 Static vs AnTi Shine
1-2 Static vs Marss Shine

Pending:
2-1 True Blue vs AnTi SSC2
0-2 Brawlman1K vs AnTi SSC2
0-2 True Blue vs AnTi SSC2
2-1 Ixis vs Long0uw Syndicate
2-1 Ixis vs Sodrek Syndicate
2-0 Komorikiri vs ikep Sum12
2-1 Komorikiri vs Ron Sum12
2-1 Komorikiri vs Ron Sum12
3-2 Komorikiri vs Choco

Sonic the Hedgehog game by game record versus the other top tiers. Includes Major tournaments from May 1st- Present Day. Only Notable players considered for this list.

•Bayonetta (2-8) 20% Win Rate
•Cloud Strife (13-16) 45% Win Rate
•Diddy Kong (19-20) 51% Win Rate
•Fox Mcloud (4-1) 80% Win Rate
•Mario (9-10) 47% Win Rate
•Mewtwo (2-3) 40% Win Rate
•Rosalina & Luma (7-9) 44% Win Rate
•Sheik (5-10) 33% Win Rate
•Zero Suit Samus (6-13) 32% Win Rate

Notable Players: 6WX, Komorikiri, KEN, SuperGirlKels, IxisNaugus, Static, Wrath, Espy, Brawlman1K, Seagull Joe, True Blue

If anyone could tell me who used what in the pending sets that'd be great. Sonic's really a character that you have to look at who used him against that character to see the results. No two top sonics play alike. Results picked up near the end of summer as well, as they started adapting other sonic's play styles for match ups. Which is the main direction the character should go.

Sonic's overall records suck though.

 

[wedl!!]

Sonic struggles against Bayonetta. I don't really understand why people claim it's even, especially prepatch when divekick was busted and walled everyone.

She has the limb range + safe damage output and kill power that ZSS had prepatch (and still has, lol back airs, nairs, and up airs), alongside skipping disadvantage and having a really threatening DP.

Bayonetta is pretty good at baiting attempted whiff punishes from Sonic since her main normals have such absurdly low endlag. Up Air and Neutral Air can be thrown around intelligently to confuse a Sonic and make him spin into a punish. Fair 1 is fair. Lots of stuff can stop Spindash, including charged guns and Down Tilt. Witch Twist OOS exists so Sonic can't afford to spin into Bayonetta's shield. Hedgehog gets walled.

I'm aware that the two sets were from players within the same region as each other, but it's the two best Bayos in the US against great Sonics. Still counts for a lot.

 

[blackghost]

Sonic struggles against Bayonetta. I don't really understand why people claim it's even, especially prepatch when divekick was busted and walled everyone.

She has the limb range + safe damage output and kill power that ZSS had prepatch (and still has, lol back airs, nairs, and up airs), alongside skipping disadvantage and having a really threatening DP.

Bayonetta is pretty good at baiting attempted whiff punishes from Sonic since her main normals have such absurdly low endlag. Up Air and Neutral Air can be thrown around intelligently to confuse a Sonic and make him spin into a punish. Fair 1 is fair. Lots of stuff can stop Spindash, including charged guns and Down Tilt. Witch Twist OOS exists so Sonic can't afford to spin into Bayonetta's shield. Hedgehog gets walled.

I'm aware that the two sets were from players within the same region as each other, but it's the two best Bayos in the US against great Sonics. Still counts for a lot.

Don't think those are fair sets both bayo players are considered better overall players at this point. it's also universally the second and third best bayo players agianst sonics that aren't considered top 5 as far as I know. pink fresh I particular just beats seagull Joe almost all the time. that sample size isn't large enough to draw a good conclusion and the player variety is also way too low.
as for a breakdown as to Thier tool sets in a matchup it comes down to how patient sonic is and can sonic di, and can he punish her end lag. if sonic runs around and goes into shield bayo will struggle. only stage on equal skill level bayo is favored in is lylat and maybe town and city

 

[NegaNixx]

Should I take out any of the Sonics? Sonic has a larger player base, and a lot of them tend to get 15 minutes of fame, Goggles, True Blue, Brawlman1000 aren't really on the same level as the others I feel. No offence to them. Compared to the level of the ZSS' for instance I feel there's a greater drop off in skill