Official 4BR Tier List v2.0 - Competitive Impressions

[Das Koopa]

I'll post the big one and then gather the rest of this week's tournies. There were quite a few.

Frostbite 2017 (February 25th-26th) (Midwest) (342 Entrants) (Category 4)
1st:

TSM | ZeRo ,
2nd:

tsu ,
3rd:

NRG | Nairo
4th:

RNG | Dabuz ,
5th:

Shuton
5th:

MVG | Salem
7th:

C9 | Ally
7th:

AS | Zinoto
9th:

Some (Qualifies for OrionRank 2017)
9th:

DNG | Kameme ,
9th:

RvL | Mr. E
9th:

CLG | VoiD
13th:

ECHO FOX MVG | MKLeo ,
13th:

Kirihara
13th:

InC | WaDi (Qualifies for OrionRank 2017)
13th:

Ahn | Deathorse (Qualifies for OrionRank 2017)
17th:

2GG | komorikiri ,
17th:

LG | Abadango ,
17th:

KEN
17th:

DMG | Captain Zack
17th:

Ned
17th:

Pulse | Ryuga
17th:

InC | Seagull Joe (Qualifies for OrionRank 2017)
17th:

smasher1001 , (Qualifies for OrionRank 2017)
25th:

CLG | NAKAT ,
25th:

FS | Fatality
25th:

PG | MVD
25th:

PG | Rich Brown
25th:

Myran (Qualifies for OrionRank 2017)
25th:

DarkAura (Qualifies for OrionRank 2017)
25th:

Blacktwins , (Qualifies for OrionRank 2017)
25th:

Black Yoshi (Qualifies for OrionRank 2017)


-This is the best Greninja has done on a national level. The best prior results tended to remain at 25th, with even the perceived best Greninja (iStudying) getting 17th at GOML at 25th at Pound 2016. Some far exceeded seeding an expectations by beating Fatality, Zack, and WaDi - all arguably top 30 players - in the same run, mere days after successfully beating Kameme and KEN at Smashfield Weeklies #78.

-This is the best a Lucario has done at a national level. The best previous result was Day at EVO, who had a much easier bracket to get 13th. Tsu beat Tweek, VoiD, Kameme, Salem, and ZeRo in one run, far exceeding expectations. My personal opinion: Pretty stunned. You could argue he definitely got a little lucky by not having to fight MKLeo - but I figured it was a real possibility to see tsu in WFs once Kameme beat MKLeo since Japan MUs are generally unpredictable since they're weird, unusual mid-tier matchups between players who practice/play together all the time.

-Ranai's worst placing comparatively is still his 33rd at Sumabato 15. He's a very inconsistent player, but a lot of the Japan bracket got SUPER unlucky by having to fight Ally. T, Ranai, KEN, Kirihara, and Kameme all went out to him. Tournament make-up likely would've been more JP-heavy in Top 8 Losers side if he didn't lose to Komota, though the entire tournament would've been a lot different.

-Canada did really well out of nowhere. SGK nearly beat VoiD, Deathorse (who even is this) got 13th, DarkAura matched previous Greninja placements at 25th, etc. 4 33rd placements, too - Chrim Foish, SuperGirlKels, BreaD, and Mistake.

-MD/VA was Japan's kryptonite Day 1. WaDi > Ranai, Seagull > T, and Black Yoshi > Abadango. Ironically, Some eliminated WaDi and Shuton sent Seagull Joe to losers during Day 2.

-This is far and away the worst I can ever remember Cloud doing since mid-last year. Tweek placed 33rd after getting reverse 3-0'd by Myran, MKLeo barely used Cloud at all, Ned got beat by ZeRo and had the dubious honor of being eliminated by Kirihara, who plays a character that is often perceived as having a losing match-up against Cloud. Komorikiri, having not missed a Top 8 at a major since his stellar TBH6 run, got 17th again - losing to Salem and Zinoto.

-Zinoto did the best he's done in quite a long time. His last good placement at a major was 2nd at CEO - here, he got 7th, losing to Kameme early, then going from losers all the way to 7th, losing to Dabuz.

-Japan as a whole did well, but not the people you would've expected. T and taranito were the bottom seeded(?) Japanese players and both did the worst (49th and 33rd) - that's not surprising, but Ranai, Abadango, Komorikiri, and KEN all placed out of Top 16. Kameme was the last member of Japan'a A Team that placed in Top 16, and he got 9th.

 

[Skeeter Mania]

His last good placement at a major was 2nd at CEO

Does 9th at 2GGC: Midwest Mayhem count?

 

[Frihetsanka]

And that's why it's so important to stress the fact that a huuuuuuuge part of Cloud's results come from his usage as a co-main or a secondary - even though solo-viability may not be the end of all arguments in smash 4, calling Cloud #1 just because he's #1 on Koopa's ranking would be ignoring half of the facts.

Calling any character #1 based solely on results is a mistake, I believe. I certainly don't think Cloud is the best character in the game at top level play, I mostly just wanted to point out that Cloud's results are better than you made them out to be.

Anyway, whether Zero Suit Samus is top 5 or top 7 doesn't seem too important to me. I'm not 100% convinced she's not better than #6 or #7, but the characters above her are super strong as well. They're all top tier anyway.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

My point doesn't really have all that much to do with whether Cloud's results make him a potential #1 character or not. The point is that ZSS has the results of a top 5 character and even if we all agreed that Diddy, Sheik, Bayonetta and Cloud are better than her you'd still be hard pressed to find yet another character that you can just place above her on a tier list and get away with it without a rock-solid justification. Tournament results aren't everything but you can't say they're not heavily suggesting towards ZSS being top 5 still.

nairo is not the 2nd best player [...]

i'm of the opinion that if nairo decided to dual main with [...] lucina he might even be the best player in the world

You've heard it here first, folks.

 

[The-Technique]

ZSS is not solo viable, and she has indeed fallen off

Its not like Nairo mollywhops Ally and Dabuz on a consistent basis...

...won Smash Con and Tokaigi, and 3rd place at Frostbite getting double elimmed by Zero, his longtime demon

...and also beat MVD solidly, ZSS's worst matchup...

It cannot be denied, ZSS is *totally* not solo viable, no siree

 

[my_T]

The only thing you can really take away from Frostbite is that bracket luck has a huge impact on character performances.

 

[valakmtnsmash4]

The only thing you can really take away from Frostbite is that bracket luck has a huge impact on character performances.

Such as???

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Bracket luck being a factor is in no way specific to Frostbite. It happens occasionally, if now somewhat frequently.

Such as???

Some, for one, had a bracket that was relatively kind for Greninja - Falcon, Bayonetta and Mewtwo are all matchups known to be well within the realm of being winnable for the frog. Beating Fatality, Zack and Wadi [all back to back, mind you] is a great personal achievement for him but that's an alltogether different matter than Greninja placing 9th at Frostbite with a non-trivial amount of luck. These are two very different things that should not be confused because at a different tournament on a different day Some can run out of luck just as easily by having to go against Mr r's Sheik early for example.

 

[my_T]

Such as???

Tsu and Ranai are good examples.

Would Tsu have gotten as far as he did if he had to play against a top Ness, DK, Bowser, Corrin, Falcon, Ryu, M2, or MK to name a few? These MU's aren't unwinnable but they're certainly troublesome for Lucario.

Would Ranai have gone out so early if hadn't run into a top level Mario and M2 so early on? Ranai's obviously dumb good but Villager obviously loses these MU's.

 

[|RK|]

Tbh, I think Nairo is the second best in the world, easy. And that's because unlike PGR or OrionRank, I have a personal sentiment about rankings - number 2 is a player that would be the new number 1 if number 1 dropped off. Nairo has shown the ability to dominate pretty much everyone but ZeRo, and he has the results to show it.

And I don't think ZSS vs Diddy is unwinnable either. It's clear from actually watching them play that ZeRo is just a demon for Nairo, in the same way Ally is for ZeRo. Recall that Nairo has tried a number of secondaries that have worked against other Diddy players, but ZeRo is something else entirely.

Tsu and Ranai are good examples.

Would Tsu have gotten as far as he did if he had to play against a top Ness, DK, Bowser, Corrin, Falcon, Ryu, M2, or MK to name a few? These MU's aren't unwinnable but they're certainly troublesome for Lucario.

Would Ranai have gone out so early if hadn't run into a top level Mario and M2 so early on? Ranai's obviously dumb good but Villager obviously loses these MU's.

Re: Tsu - yeah, probably. He beat Aba 2-1 at a pre-Frostbite local. He probably knows how Ryu works thanks to the fact he has one, and the others sound more like personal preference MUs than actual pains. I'm also tempted to call ZeRo's Falcon a top Falcon, but I'll refrain lmao

 

[Illuminose]

My point doesn't really have all that much to do with whether Cloud's results make him a potential #1 character or not. The point is that ZSS has the results of a top 5 character and even if we all agreed that Diddy, Sheik, Bayonetta and Cloud are better than her you'd still be hard pressed to find yet another character that you can just place above her on a tier list and get away with it without a rock-solid justification. Tournament results aren't everything but you can't say they're not heavily suggesting towards ZSS being top 5 still.





You've heard it here first, folks.

i am speaking from the standpoint of cloud and lucina being his strongest and most relevant secondaries (that aren't bowser) at the current moment. i believe that nairo is held back by solo maining zss. cloud and lucina both provide even matchups against diddy kong, as well as different options to use against sheik, bayonetta, and cloud. he can also utilize those characters in awkward, possibly losing matchups like pikachu and olimar to handle them with consistency. nairo is one of those players who makes it very clear when there's a skill gap between him and his opponent and has shown that he does well in even matchups, but struggles when it comes down to the end part of bracket because zss at some point or another will have to break through serious matchup barriers. also there is absolutely no way you can justify nairo above leo through results, though it'd be interesting to see you try.

also if we really want to talk about depth of results then we can talk about marss, a player who has consistently struggled to match his early 2016 results as he attended more tournaments and had to deal with more players/bad matchups. i have a lot of respect for choco, but he's not remotely consistent either. or we could talk about the very sparse success of zss at the regional level. zss takes a player who is perfect with her punishes and very good at outplaying her opponents in neutral to find the opportunities to punish because she loses neutral in most relevant matchups. zss results are almost entirely driven by nairo at this point, and even he cannot avoid all the problems/bad matchups that zss is faced with. he's been dealing with cloud by using bowser of all characters instead of trying to tough it out with zss, which is very telling. he's worked through sheik a bit in the past, but he lost his last two sets against top sheiks in very dominant fashion because they didn't let him get the cheese he usually gets, just shutting him down. he was destroyed by salem in their last encounter and holds a negative record (1-2). diddy kong shouldn't need explaining. he even lost his last set against esam in another matchup commonly considered for zss to lose, pikachu. over time, as even more people realize zss's weaknesses, nairo will struggle more in these matchups that zss loses at top level, as has been the trend, so long as he continues to play zss in them, unless he has some tech i don't know about or suddenly ascends in player skill.

Spoiler: all the characters that zss is worse than

- zss is worse than sonic, a character that has no matchups classified as "very difficult" (-2 or worse) and likely only loses 1-3 matchups total. commonly cited losing matchups against cloud, fox, sheik. and rosalina have all been proven very doable at top level thanks to ken and komorikiri, all of those probably being more or less even except for cloud. the dearth of opportunities for ken probably holds back sonic's results, especially considering that his losses at US tournaments have only been zero, void, ally, and dabuz. there are multiple high level sonics like 6wx, wrath, and manny (there's more) pulling in strong regional-level results as well.
- zss is worse than marth, a character that also doesn't lose any matchups badly and only has a few losing matchups himself, probably just consisting of sheik and bayonetta. the last two super majors were won by a marth player, and has another top 20 pgr player using him (mr.e). there's a strong depth of marths with players like pugwest and fuwa as well as secondary marths.
- zss is worse than mario, a character who can struggle against sonic and cloud as well as a couple other characters, but has much more malleable and efficient tools to win those bad matchups and even has more consistent reward. ally, though an inconsistent player who has proven that he is capable of even losing free matchups, has shown that he can overcome all of mario's bad matchups and achieved fantastic placements himself. mario has another top 10 player with serious results utilizing him (anti) and other very strong marios like ron, zenyou, and filip. there are many other locally and regionally successful marios in regions around the world.
- zss is worse than fox, a character who struggles against bayo and has a couple other slight losses but nothing too serious. fox has larry lurr bringing in fantastic results in addition to a wide array of second tier foxes that have pulled in results for the character. - zss is worse than mewtwo, a character that has a couple troublesome matchups himself (diddy and cloud), but those are less numerous than ones zss deals with.
- zss is worse than rosalina, a character that can win her two bad matchups just fine (cloud isn't that bad, though mk is sorta like zss diddy except you win neutral so if you set up the wall you can just win) which is less than zss.

my maximum placement for zss is 11th

The-Technique zss is a character where you can win tournaments if you evade the brackets with bad matchups and outplay your opponents. nairo plays through bad matchups at times, but many of his wins in those matchups come through things that cannot be classified as consistent strategies. he has the game plan of pursuing his punishes relentlessly in those matchups because zss loses the matchups so hard otherwise, and he makes it work sometimes but it's hard to do consistently. she doesn't beat any of her top tiers either, so it's not like you struggle through a few bad matchups and then get to do well vs certain characters so it kinda balances out. zss is even or -1 with the top tiers she doesn't outright struggle against...there's a lot you have to do to overcome those odds. you brought up smash con, but ignore nairo's summer before that, as well as the lack of zero. he also got 17th at genesis losing in zss bad matchups. he's placed either poorly or lower than expected on certain occasions simply because you cannot expect zss to consistently win those matchups just by outplaying, you need cheese and it's not always easy or even possible to land some of the crazy things nairo pulls off.

 

[my_T]

lol ZSS is not worse than Mario. None of the Mario mains are consistent. Two of them have a high usage of secondaries, especially ANTi so you can't give all of the credit to Mario. ZSS has a better MU spread. No MU is free for Mario.

And let's not act like Ally doesn't outplay anybody. Easily a contender for 2nd best player in the world.

 

[verbatim]

It's just that most people like consistency. If you win neutral 100 times against your opponent and have a super large %lead or even stocklead, then you want to feel like you have the advantage in the match. But Lucarios aura mechanic, especially with rage as well almost negates this. Lucario could always make comebacks, you're never safe from him. And the bigger your lead is against him, the stronger he gets. 1-2 mistakes can take your stock instantly.

I think it should be worth noting that of the singles sets Tsu lost in America, 2 were to Diddy Kong and one was to Sheik (Kameme at a weekly, he actually pulled out the Ryu to win a pivotal game in their Frostbite set), all considered characters that win the neutral again and again. Most of his biggest wins were against top tiers known for getting kills very early (Cloud, Bayonetta).


I agree with the gist of what you're saying, but imo Tsu's bracket proves that there's more to a matchup that how early a character kills Lucario.

 

[Shaya]

IMO

Nairo is still one of the best players in the world.
Zero Suit has a lot of room to still grow as a character, her potential is still that of a top 5 character. I agree with Gheb on this notion, but no one else really matches the capabilities ZSS can achieve bar 3-4 other bona fide top tiers.

Nairo for the most part naturally keeps up with things, but the way he fell back to nair use as his neutral tool in deficit/under pressure against ZeRo cemented how poorly things were at the end.
But if you pay attention to how things went before that, it was exceptional...
At this point of time I equate Zero Suits nairing predictably as our worst ingrained habit - we've relied on it for so long and it's difficult to get those play patterns out of us. It's always going to lose to a character encroaching her space with patience (you also need stage space).

I know what ZSS' next position is going to be, I both think it's wrong for a projected 'final view of the game' but _roughly_ right for what we're seeing anecdotally (that when zero suit loses, she loses really badly - this isn't mu specific either). This gives people the idea that she's inconsistent, that she has 'fatal flaws' although she's still crazy strong; neither wrong or right, really. Only the idiots would put her outside of the highest caste.
The necessity of transitioning from our reliance on nair and aggressive gambits to abusing her movement and the exceptional (it combos, it's safe, it kills, great range, it's got amazing hurtbox shifting as to not expose her in start up, etc etc) power of back air while appropriately implementing shield (our oos options), side-b, down tilt and figuring out how to use down smash and paralyzer more reliably as well.

Nairo destroyed people at Frostbite for overly shielding against ZSS. Shield by itself isn't really the issue with her right now. She can dance around shield until you're forced to act and capitalize.
It's choosing to jump on reaction whilst shielding to an approaching (grounded) ZSS that is still a problem: this covers grab, dash attack ain't super, you can anti-air her trying to jump punish you, etc etc
But, if you let her get on top of you in a poor position, it's over. Not too many players or characters can really stop her from getting to you in the first place, it's a mistake for her players to always gambit with attacks once she assumes this dominant position.

 

[Seagull Joe]

17th:

InC | Seagull Joe (Qualifies for OrionRank 2017)

What's an "OrionRank 2017"?

 

[NINTENDO Galaxy]

It's this site here. https://intheloop837.wordpress.com/

Made by DasKoopa. It's his version of the PGR ranking in a way but it uses more stuff to determine rankings. (I'm struggling to find the link to the beginning of the list)



EDIT: Found the beginning of the list thanks to the search bar.

He even includes a list to show his methodology. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1p2mqzaOqlbnjou4_bGI8SMZFc0S9Szscn2qLJYDXJOQ/edit

I think the PGR rankings only goes by results.

Part 1 https://intheloop837.wordpress.com/2017/01/02/orionrank-top-100-100-91/

Part 2 https://intheloop837.wordpress.com/2017/01/04/orionrank-top-100-80-71/

Part 3 https://intheloop837.wordpress.com/2017/01/05/orionrank-top-100-70-61/

Part 4 https://intheloop837.wordpress.com/2017/01/06/orionrank-top-100-60-51/

Part 5 https://intheloop837.wordpress.com/2017/01/09/orionrank-top-100-50-41/

Part 6 https://intheloop837.wordpress.com/2017/01/10/orionrank-top-100-40-31/

Part 7 https://intheloop837.wordpress.com/2017/01/11/orionrank-top-100-30-21/

Part 8 https://intheloop837.wordpress.com/2017/01/12/orionrank-top-100-20-11/

Part 9 https://intheloop837.wordpress.com/2017/01/13/orionrank-top-100-10-1/

 

[TDK]

What's an "OrionRank 2017"?

It's a rankings system that quantifies tournaments and wins based on points system over a certain period of time. I'd consider it more accurate than the PGR, honestly.

Also, ZeRo's next part in his tier list: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SieXHkvKjU0

 

[FeelMeUp]

What's Mac doing in the same tier as Bowser Jr. and Ganon?

 

[Das Koopa]

What's an "OrionRank 2017"?

A ranking system I designed that used very extensive set records (literally a 250 page word file full of them)/tourney results from March 2016-December 2016. NINTENDO above linked the pertinent information. Somebody also made a wiki page, as I discovered when I was posting the PGRv2/OrionRank stuff onto GFAQS:

https://www.ssbwiki.com/OrionRank_2016

There are some issues that are easy to lay out and explain in detail but I'm fairly certain my revisions for 2017 have fixed them.

The PGRv2 was released a few days after and I was fairly surprised at how similar they were in a lot of areas. PGRv2 also put a lot of stock into set records and as a result the lists have a few players hitting the same/similar placements with a lot of the differences being what tournaments were used.

 

[L9999]

Nairo destroyed people at Frostbite for thinking shield was safe against ZSS. Shield by itself isn't really the issue with her right now. She can dance around shield until you're forced to act and capitalize.
In other words, if you let her get on top of you, it's over. Not too many players or characters can really stop her from getting on top of you in the first place, it's a mistake for her players to always gambit with attacks once she assumes this dominant position.

Is this the reason why Nairo is considered to be a "Japanese slayer?"

What's Mac doing in the same tier as Bowser Jr. and Ganon?

ZeRo has a high opinion on , so maybe that's how Little Mac ended in "low tier". I personally think ZeRo's ranking system is flawed. "Bottom tier" by definition is the worst of the worst, and it is obvious characters like belong there. Low tier is more fitting for , characters that are clearly bad but are not garbage. fits in that category. I'll stop it because IIRC tier structuring talk is banned.

 

[NINTENDO Galaxy]

Don't forget Mega Smash Mondays 87 is tonight featuring Komorikiri and Ranai!

https://twitch.tv/2ggaming

 

[Swamp Sensei]

ZeRo has a high opinion on , so maybe that's how Little Mac ended in "low tier". I personally think ZeRo's ranking system is flawed. "Bottom tier" by definition is the worst of the worst, and it is obvious characters like belong there. Low tier is more fitting for , characters that are clearly bad but are not garbage. fits in that category. I'll stop it because IIRC tier structuring talk is banned.

To be fair, I think you're arguing semantics here.

Does the name of the tier matter if they're in the same order or a similar one?

 

[williamsga555]

Ordinarily, I'm a bit critical of ZeRo's character analyses, but his recent low tier video nails one of the biggest issue D3 actually has (relevant timestamp): what is quite possibly the worst OOS game in the cast. D3 has next to no options to punish aggression against his shield, as his fastest attacks are either uptilt OOS (~11 frames) or shield drop-dtilt (~14 frames), and grab stops being threatening at approx. 80% or so, as he stops getting true followups, and none of his throws kill at reasonable percents.

This wouldn't be such a terrible thing for him if he had either mobility or even decent frame data otherwise, but combine all three together and he should never be allowed to play his game by most of the relevant cast members.

-----

Spoiler: A consideration of "Clutchness" and how D3 lacks it

Speaking of D3 pessimism, I've been thinking about something else lately: his utter lack of a semi-reliable "clutch factor" to incite some fear in the opponent.

What I mean here is some practical move that can seal a stock mad early without relying on some sort of hard read. The most extreme example would be something like Rest: a frame 1 invincible move on a slippery target that kills sub 60% on a majority of the cast. Less extreme examples would be, say, Zelda's Lightning Kicks/Elevator combo, any grab kill confirm (most notably "Checkmate," "Ding-Dong," "Beep-Boop," and whatever name has been settled on for Bowser's). Relevant to recent discussions would also be Marth's tippers, or Lucario's bair. The list goes on and on.

Who all lacks a solid "clutch" move? It can be argued that the so-called "neutral monsters" do, but they typically make up for it by having pretty oppressive game states otherwise. They don't necessarily need to close stocks early because they often have the means to rack up damage into kill percent safely and efficiently otherwise.

So who else? I think there are only two characters that (imo) lack a reliable "clutch" move (feel free to argue for others, if interested): D3 and Duck Hunt.

Do either of them truly lack something that can (and should) scare the opponent? Maybe. Let's consider some options for D3 (since, admittedly, I'm not well-versed in Duck Hunt, so feel free to call me out for how strong x move/confirm is):

• Down Smash is probably the biggest candidate, practically speaking. It's powerful, sends at a terrific angle, and it's not quite horribly slow. The issue with Down Smash is that it's his only scary grounded option (aside from F smash, but more on that in just a moment), and it's not exactly fast/safe enough to throw out for free.
  
• Forward Smash is stupid powerful and covers a ridiculous area, but frankly, it shouldn't even sweetspot an opponent without them messing up at some point. Yes, D3 has some traps that can setup this move (including ledgestick gordo), but the stars have to align to give up enough time for them.
  
• Gordo at the ledge is a very versatile tool, as everyone should know by now. The limitations of Gordo as a "clutch" move are two-fold, however: gordo (1) always has counterplay, and (2) very rarely ever kills on its own. More tech is being found yet for this conerstone of his moveset (such as this recent video which includes some genuine confirms), so I could see this developing into one yet.
• Bair should be known be all to be pretty great, but it suffers from slow startup and almost perpetual staleness, since it's his optimal punish option for almost every time he's in advantage. If fair were a more usable move, this wouldn't be the case, but alas.
  
• Nair is quietly a very solid option. 12% sweetspot, sourspot confirms into upair at kill percents. It unfortunately launches at a poor angle for killing on its own, and the sourspot is both predictable and difficult to land (the hitbox is puny and D3 can't really maneuver into position well).
  
• Dair is a stupidly powerful meteor, but it's slow and far more precise than it should be. Landing the sweetspot of this move is ridiculously difficult, especially given his mobility woes.
  
• Jet Hammer no. I can entertain the thought of using it as a threatening edgeguard option when you're at 100%, but like...no. Let's be real, move's trash.

What exactly am I getting at with all of this? Simply put, I'm starting to think that D3 is the worst character in the game at top level. He has all the typical weaknesses of the superheavy archetype without being able to instill fear in his opponent. He has three main positive traits (range, longevity, and % output), but two of those are hindered by other negatives (he has range, but surprisingly terrible hitboxes that often fail to actually match the animation of his swings; his longevity is nice, but he gets absolutely nothing from rage, since he still can't kill regardless).

He has an abysmal neutral, one of the weakest advantage states mid%-onward, a bad disadvantage state, and a complete inability to seal stocks early. At top level play, he should pretty much never get to play his game against most relevant characters, but unlike Jigglypuff, Zelda, or Ganon, he lacks anything explosive that can turn the tide of the match in an instant.

For those that made it this far, kudos. Let me know if you think this sort of "explosiveness" is truly all that important or not. If you still want to defend D3 as not actually being the worst, I'd love to hear that, too. He is my main, after all.

tl;dr: D3's still a trashcan.

 

[Nathan Richardson]

^ How does zard fit into this? What's his 'clutch' factor, he's not awful, amazing range on his smashes and tilts, not to mention one of the fastest jabs in the cast but other than that what does he have? Sorry I'm just curious.

 

[Yonder]

^ How does zard fit into this? What's his 'clutch' factor, he's not awful, amazing range on his smashes and tilts, not to mention one of the fastest jabs in the cast but other than that what does he have? Sorry I'm just curious.

His bair kills almost everyone at like 60-70 near the ledge and has great range with about as much start up and cooldown as D3's bair...

Or any I overexaggereting its power? Either wait, it is incredibly, incredibly strong and emits Lucario nair aura rage power almost.

 

[L9999]

^ How does zard fit into this? What's his 'clutch' factor, he's not awful, amazing range on his smashes and tilts, not to mention one of the fastest jabs in the cast but other than that what does he have? Sorry I'm just curious.

The clutch factor refers mostly to raw power to win on a dire situation, and the more reliable the better. After playing the top Charizard in my region and some reading, I picked up some things on Charizard that can qualify as "clutch."

1) Flamethrower. This thing is ridiculous in the edge, even without conditioning it can net nasty gimps. It is so ridiculous that I list it even if it isn't a "raw power" move.
2) Bair. This thing may have punishable endlag, but it must be respected, it hits Lucario hard. Tosshi (top Charizard from Japan) is The master of landing this thing.
3) Up Throw. It can be DI'd, but on platforms it does wonders. Charizard's lateral throws are also clutch, specially in Trashville.
4) Up Smash. This thing has ridiculous hitboxes and most of the time you don't see it coming.

Charizard's clutch isn't quite on the levels of in terms of absolute reliability, but it is threathening and most top Charizards I have seen get wins with these after they have been kicked around in neutral or last stock situation.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

^ How does zard fit into this? What's his 'clutch' factor, he's not awful, amazing range on his smashes and tilts, not to mention one of the fastest jabs in the cast but other than that what does he have? Sorry I'm just curious.

He's basically saying what is Zard's "How can I get an early kill to even things up?" move.

Jabs and Smashes aren't really good comparisons here. Yeah, Zard's has some pretty good smashes but they aren't the best to use in a pinch.

Zard's main clutch moves would most likely be Flare Blitz, Rock Smash, Fly, Up Throw, Bair and his grab set ups.

Flare Blitz, Rock Smash and Fly all have super armor so Charizard can afford to challenge cheese his way through an opponent who's getting too aggressive or predictable. They all kill too so that's nice.

Up Throw can kill early with platforms. Bair just hits like a truck and outranges Cloud of all things.

And while Zard's grab has no useful confirms, he can use them to set up for kills and the ledge (where he edgeguards) or. It just takes a bit of prediction. Dedede doesn't really have that with his grabs.

His bair kills almost everyone at like 60-70 near the ledge and has great range with about as much start up and cooldown as D3's bair...

Or any I overexaggereting its power? Either wait, it is incredibly, incredibly strong and emits Lucario nair aura rage power almost.

IIRC, 60-70 is a bit low for a lot of the cast, but it's power is certainly nothing to sneeze at. Its in the ball park at least.

1) Flamethrower. This thing is ridiculous in the edge, even without conditioning it can net nasty gimps.

Flamethrower is great, but I don't think that's what williamsga555 is talking about.

I mean, it only works on a fraction of the cast. It's nice, but not his "clutch" exactly.

4) Up Smash. This thing has ridiculous hitboxes and most of the time you don't see it coming.

It's pretty good. But between you and me. Many Charizards use that move too much to the point it gets stale.

 

[NINTENDO Galaxy]

You forgot to include Lucas's Pk Hoo Hah/Dead Mom/Brain Blast, it's pretty similar to the others that were listed but instead it's always true at it's percent range. Once it stops working is when Lucas's up throw kills.

 

[bc1910]

Bracket luck being a factor is in no way specific to Frostbite. It happens occasionally, if now somewhat frequently.



Some, for one, had a bracket that was relatively kind for Greninja - Falcon, Bayonetta and Mewtwo are all matchups known to be well within the realm of being winnable for the frog. Beating Fatality, Zack and Wadi [all back to back, mind you] is a great personal achievement for him but that's an alltogether different matter than Greninja placing 9th at Frostbite with a non-trivial amount of luck. These are two very different things that should not be confused because at a different tournament on a different day Some can run out of luck just as easily by having to go against Mr r's Sheik early for example.

Actually, the Bayo MU has been heading in the other direction for a long time. Having to face Zack isn't good bracket luck. It's still only one set, but Some winning is pretty big.

Some may not have run into Sheik or Sonic, but he did have to get through two of the best players of two top tiers. And bear in mind Some has no issue with Sonic. So "relatively kind" really just means "avoided top level Sheik".

So yes, it was lucky for him to avoid that, but he hardly had a free ride to 9th and "non-trivial" amount of luck is debateable when we're really talking about avoiding one character.

 

[Nathan Richardson]

He's basically saying what is Zard's "How can I get an early kill to even things up?" move.

Jabs and Smashes aren't really good comparisons here. Yeah, Zard's has some pretty good smashes but they aren't the best to use in a pinch.

Zard's main clutch moves would most likely be Flare Blitz, Rock Smash, Fly, Up Throw, Bair and his grab set ups.

Flare Blitz, Rock Smash and Fly all have super armor so Charizard can afford to challenge cheese his way through an opponent who's getting too aggressive or predictable. They all kill too so that's nice.

Up Throw can kill early with platforms. Bair just hits like a truck and outranges Cloud of all things.

And while Zard's grab has no useful confirms, he can use them to set up for kills and the ledge (where he edgeguards) or. It just takes a bit of prediction. Dedede doesn't really have that with his grabs.


IIRC, 60-70 is a bit low for a lot of the cast, but it's power is certainly nothing to sneeze at. Its in the ball park at least.


Flamethrower is great, but I don't think that's what williamsga555 is talking about.

I mean, it only works on a fraction of the cast. It's nice, but not his "clutch" exactly.


It's pretty good. But between you and me. Many Charizards use that move too much to the point it gets stale.

Hrmm bair I often find is not good if zard is about to land and the opponent is at a fair distance, great for interrupting rushes.
I only throw flare blitz out in desperation situations, that move is just way too easy to punish if an opponent shields it (one of the only moves that makes zard susceptible to jablocks).
Fly is one of those moves that you need to time right to take advantage of it's super armor (if you miss you're screwed).
Rock smash is cool but can be grabbed out of but it's a lot safer than zard's other moves. I've done KO counters in last hit situations with that.
Flamethrower is the whole package, fast to start up, low cooldown/FAF, can lead into what I call a 'setup and smash' where an opponent misses the ledge with his or her upB, overshoots it and is in perfect range for a f or dsmash. Nine times out of ten it's free damage (not to mention free shield pressure).
As for uthrow I still don't know how to DI out of it myself but I face other zards so rarely it typically isn't an issue, plus the move stales super easy.
One of the moves that I use that I see people constantly underestimate is dsmash, no sourspots, excellent KB all along it's range which is super long, comes out quickly enough to surprise, sends opponents typically at a low angle on strike, the only issue is the endlag which makes it super unsafe on whiff which to me typically isn't a super huge issue.

(ugh nightly backup ate my original post!)

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I only throw flare blitz out in desperation situations, that move is just way too easy to punish if an opponent shields it (one of the only moves that makes zard susceptible to jablocks).

Learn when to use it.

I keep telling other Zards this, but they need to learn to use Flare Bltiz.

It's amazing when you know just when to use it.

Remember, it punishes weak projectiles, laggy normals and landing lag. Especially hard landings.

So good against hard landings.

Fly is one of those moves that you need to time right to take advantage of it's super armor (if you miss you're screwed).

Well...

That can be said for literally any move.

Flamethrower is the whole package, fast to start up, low cooldown/FAF, can lead into what I call a 'setup and smash' where an opponent misses the ledge with his or her upB, overshoots it and is in perfect range for a f or dsmash. Nine times out of ten it's free damage (not to mention free shield pressure).

Yes, but 9 times out of ten it won't net you that early clutch kill.

I love Flamethrower, but as I said above. It isn't a clutch move against most of the cast.

As for uthrow I still don't know how to DI out of it myself but I face other zards so rarely it typically isn't an issue, plus the move stales super easy.

Well I mean. You DI towards to corner of the screen.

One of the moves that I use that I see people constantly underestimate is dsmash, no sourspots, excellent KB all along it's range which is super long, comes out quickly enough to surprise, sends opponents typically at a low angle on strike, the only issue is the endlag which makes it super unsafe on whiff which to me typically isn't a super huge issue.

Yeah, D Smash is underutilized but it's just another strong Smash attack Zard has.

 

[sups48]

For those that have not kept up with Lucario since release

Lucario loses to Ness, Lucas, DK, Bowser, Falcon, Corrin, and Ryu. Pretty sure he loses to Sheik as well

No way lucario loses to DK or Bowser while Lucario might die early if they get on the ledge Aura Sphere keep them there till they die.

 

[TDK]

MSM 87 Ft. KomoRanai (102 Entrants) (SoCal)

1st: Komorikiri
2nd: Ranai
3rd: Tyrant
4th: Nicko
5th: Aarvark
5th: Scizor
7th: S2H
7th: Razo
9th: Saturn
9th: Sky Williams
9th: Zan
9th: MastaMario
13th: Dynamo
13th: Pike
13th: K9Sbruce
13th: Ghost

Elegant apparently went and placed 33rd, losing to Saturn in Winners and MagoFFF in losers.

Always nice to see Scizor place super well. Would have grabbed a game from Komo's Sonic but Komo's Edgeguard was too good.

I think it's worth counting these when they have notable OoS Guests, such as KomoRanai or the ones right after a Saga.

 

[The-Technique]

During the stream I heard from the commentators that Elegant went all Ganon this tournament, with him lamenting his decision while on the mic, which is likely why he placed lower than usual.

Now...Sky Williams placing 9th? THAT is unexpected.

 

[Luigi player]

I think it should be worth noting that of the singles sets Tsu lost in America, 2 were to Diddy Kong and one was to Sheik (Kameme at a weekly, he actually pulled out the Ryu to win a pivotal game in their Frostbite set), all considered characters that win the neutral again and again. Most of his biggest wins were against top tiers known for getting kills very early (Cloud, Bayonetta).


I agree with the gist of what you're saying, but imo Tsu's bracket proves that there's more to a matchup that how early a character kills Lucario.

It almost looks to me like you wanted to quote someone else. I didn't say anything about how early kills influence Lucarios MUs, I just explained why people don't like his mechanics (and other early kill stuff).

 

[L9999]

MSM 87 Ft. KomoRanai (102 Entrants) (SoCal)

1st: Komorikiri (Maybe , will check VODs later)
2nd: Ranai (Maybe , will check VODs later )
3rd: Tyrant
4th: Nicko
5th: Aarvark
5th: Scizor
7th: S2H
7th: Razo
9th: Saturn
9th: Sky Williams
9th: Zan
9th: MastaMario
13th: Dynamo
13th: Pike
13th: K9Sbruce
13th: Ghost

Elegant apparently went and placed 33rd, losing to Saturn in Winners and MagoFFF in losers.

Always nice to see Scizor place super well. Would have grabbed a game from Komo's Sonic but Komo's Edgeguard was too good.

I think it's worth counting these when they have notable OoS Guests, such as KomoRanai or the ones right after a Saga.

Couple things. 1. Ranai has a Lucina, and Aardvark did something with Villager. 2. Nicko and Scizor putting the work with their characters, as well as Zan doing something for Toon Link. 3. Sky not only plays this game but he matched Seth's last results. 4. Even with a great player like Elegant, Ganon sucks hard.

 

[Deleted member]

MSM 87 Ft. KomoRanai (102 Entrants) (SoCal)

1st: Komorikiri (Maybe , will check VODs later)
2nd: Ranai (Maybe , will check VODs later )
3rd: Tyrant
4th: Nicko
5th: Aarvark
5th: Scizor
7th: S2H
7th: Razo
9th: Saturn
9th: Sky Williams
9th: Zan
9th: MastaMario
13th: Dynamo
13th: Pike
13th: K9Sbruce
13th: Ghost

Elegant apparently went and placed 33rd, losing to Saturn in Winners and MagoFFF in losers.

Always nice to see Scizor place super well. Would have grabbed a game from Komo's Sonic but Komo's Edgeguard was too good.

I think it's worth counting these when they have notable OoS Guests, such as KomoRanai or the ones right after a Saga.

Good **** to Nicko as always. I'm really happy he got funded to go to Frame Perfect Series 2 this March.

 

[NINTENDO Galaxy]

Komorikiri did use mario and ranai did use megaman. I cannot recall who won though.

In shulk news, Nicko will be doing doubles with Kome at Frame Perfect; double shulk hype!

 

[Skeeter Mania]

MSM 87 Ft. KomoRanai (102 Entrants) (SoCal)

1st: Komorikiri (Maybe , will check VODs later)
2nd: Ranai (Maybe , will check VODs later )
3rd: Tyrant
4th: Nicko
5th: Aarvark
5th: Scizor
7th: S2H
7th: Razo
9th: Saturn
9th: Sky Williams
9th: Zan
9th: MastaMario
13th: Dynamo
13th: Pike
13th: K9Sbruce
13th: Ghost

Elegant apparently went and placed 33rd, losing to Saturn in Winners and MagoFFF in losers.

Always nice to see Scizor place super well. Would have grabbed a game from Komo's Sonic but Komo's Edgeguard was too good.

I think it's worth counting these when they have notable OoS Guests, such as KomoRanai or the ones right after a Saga.

I guess Sky is attending tournaments these days.

 

[FullMoon]

Actually, the Bayo MU has been heading in the other direction for a long time. Having to face Zack isn't good bracket luck. It's still only one set, but Some winning is pretty big.

Some may not have run into Sheik or Sonic, but he did have to get through two of the best players of two top tiers. And bear in mind Some has no issue with Sonic. So "relatively kind" really just means "avoided top level Sheik".

So yes, it was lucky for him to avoid that, but he hardly had a free ride to 9th and "non-trivial" amount of luck is debateable when we're really talking about avoiding one character.

Adding to this I don't think having to face Zero in pools can ever be considered bracket luck.