Official 4BR Tier List v2.0 - Competitive Impressions

[dakotaisgreat]

I don't know why it's so common to dislike Lucarios aura. Everyone in this thread seems to have some agreed upon consensus that it's stupid and jankey.

Lucario was designed to have aura, it's his thing, it's what makes him an interesting character. It's his limit/Luma, if that makes sense. Not only is it good to define him as a character and make him interesting, but it's clearly not overpowered or Lucario would be a top tier character. Honestly, without aura existing he would be a pretty ****ty character who would be used even less than he already is.

I'm happy he has it. It's what makes him usable.

 

[NairWizard]

a bair trade during neutral spacing that kills at 40 is completely random.
just like a diddy throwing out dtilts when you hit 120 is random.

and it's pointless because the mu is that volatile.
if it's not a very very good or very very bad matchup for lucario, placing it with numbers is pointless.

This seems both tonally and factually wrong to me, indicative of either heavy bias or lazy analysis.

The ability to kill at 40 doesn't make an MU volatile. Inconsistent tools make MUs volatile.

Villager getting a low-percent 3-turnip aerial KO vs. getting a 1-turnip aerial in a high-percent situation adds volatility to an MU. ZSS' Boost Kick having difficult-to-predict fall-out patterns adds volatility to an MU.

Lucario's b-air, though? Nope. That's not an inconsistent move at all. With even a little Lucario experience you should be able to recognize the percents at which he's able to send you reeling or outright kill you with little variation. The move's frame data is consistent from use to use, stock to stock, game to game, and you space against it in the exact same way at the exact same percents without randomness. It is in fact a very controlled effect.

Access to that effect is also controlled; Lucario can play into low-knockback hits and trades earlygame in order to keep stage presence while building Aura. Indeed, most of the skill in playing Lucario comes from the careful balance of maintaining stage control vs. taking damage needed to secure a kill. Low- or medium-Aura Lucario is at risk with his back to the ledge because of an exploitable recovery, a vulnerability to rogue spikes and hard-reads into the blastzone.

The counterplay to his gameplan is to pressure him and keep him pinned to the ledge. There, you try to either hard-read his (definitely limited, if people disagree that it's outright bad) movement options or you edgeguard him. Certain characters definitely have a tougher time doing this than others. Characters like Diddy and Sheik are not built to take risks to close stocks out early, although they certainly can (Sheik has some interesting edgeguard setups and Diddy has a spike).

So, why are people losing to Lucario?

1) They're not taking big enough risks. It's okay to throw out an f-smash against a medium-Aura Lucario because medium-Aura Lucario isn't very threatening and you don't lose much by taking a few percent. You lose far more by hitting Lucario without killing him.

2) The Lucario player is doing a good job of building his Aura while keeping a strong foothold on the stage. Tsu is absolutely an expert at doing this.

Assigning matchup ratios is therefore quite simple. Characters who are less capable of taking risks and thus allowing Lucario to execute his gameplan are worse in the matchup than characters who have an arsenal of strong read tools. I would rather take Pikachu into the Lucario matchup than Sheik for instance because Pikachu's f-smash can catch a Lucario's landing and nail him into the blastzone a lot earlier than Sheik's smashes can. So Pikachu probably has a better Lucario matchup than Sheik; if you are able to say that one character has a slightly better matchup against a given opponent than another, you should be able to come up with matchup ratios.

To suggest that Lucario's matchups can't be assigned ratios is to oversimplify both his design and the gameplan of those who play him.

 

[Frihetsanka]

I understand that people like to talk about Lucario, but what about Olimar? Shuton did really well (top 6) and almost beat Nairo for top 4 (and he might've gone on to beat Dabuz as well, who knows?). Myran got top 32 which is respectable as well, and Dabuz has stated on Twitter that he's considering solo-maining Olimar. How good is Olimar? Is he high tier? Which are his worst relevant MUs, and which relevant MUs does he win?

 

[Bowserboy3]

I understand that people like to talk about Lucario, but what about Olimar? Shuton did really well (top 6) and almost beat Nairo for top 4 (and he might've gone on to beat Dabuz as well, who knows?). Myran got top 32 which is respectable as well, and Dabuz has stated on Twitter that he's considering solo-maining Olimar. How good is Olimar? Is he high tier? Which are his worst relevant MUs, and which relevant MUs does he win?

I agree; Olimar is quite slept upon IMO.

3 purple Pikmin (heck, even just 2; 2 purple and 1 blue might also be amazing) is actually pretty bonkers. He's got throw combos (and a good aerial to ground combo game too, such as throw, aerial into grab, repeat) and a kill throw which helps his viability a bunch (most good characters have these).

And let's not forget Dabuz won a game with Olimar; of course this is less notable, but proves that he can be used.

I'm interested to see what Olimar's MU's are like. I can see him doing well against characters that have poorer aerial to ground transitioning, for some reason; his ability to AC his aerials quickly and his ranged smashes help.

---

In another topic, I made a post the other day about Rosalina being able to deal with Bayonetta if played correctly.

I am glad Dabuz helped prove my point by beating Salem 3-0 (using Rosalina for the first 2 games).

That MU is not as bad as it seems.

Also, it looks like staying mostly Rosalina still works for Dabuz; REALLY hope it was just a bad mental phase he was going through. He needs to stop doubting his ability with Rosalina. It's still amazing. His solo Rosalina game has also noticeably improved, which is a good sign.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

I don't think people are ready for Lucario, neither in terms of playing against a top level one nor in terms of having a reasonable discussion about him. The character just contradicts our conventional approach to smash and competitive gaming in general to such a high degree that it's extremely hard to make any good calls without having a solid amount of observable data. That's crucial because not a lot of his matchups tend to actually work out the way you would expect them from look at them on paper. Characters that have been theorized to do well against Lucario such as Cloud or Rosalina have yet to turn out to be big roadblocks in practice. The characters Tsu loses to in Japanese tournaments seem fairly "random", as in not paticularly indicative of matchup specific influences.

To start with, it's worth taking a look at the sets that Tsu struggled the most in. The first player to bring him to the verge of losing was Kamemushi with his Sheik. That already seems to be somewhat of an unlikely constellation yet it took Tsu a crucial Ryu-counterpick to reverse the momentum of the set and bring it back in the end; Kameme completely dominated him in the first two games with Sheik. One thing that he's been doing different compared to the other Sheik players that have lost to Tsu -Mr r and Void chiefly- is that he didn't go into defensive mode against high%-Lucario, something that a lot of people would intuitively expect to be the right idea but actually play exactly into Lucario's cards. If you start shield camping he'll just randomly break it. If you start running away or try to be dodgy you'll eventually get either hit by a random aura sphere or get dragged into his aura charge and comboed into a free usmash confirm one way or another. What Kameme did to perform so well initially was to *not* pay Lucario too much respect once he passed the 100%-mark, instead opting to keep up the pressure and make use of his better mobility. Even at supersayian percent Lucario's OoS options are limited and he's still not very resilient against being kept in a defensive position. Kamemushi, having more exprience against Lucario than most of the other top level players, managed to abuse that weakness well enough for the first two games despite not being able to kill Tsu earlier than 150% most of the time - another contradiction to conventional smash logic that would suggest that KO power is the most important factor against Lucario. It's still important, there's just a fair more to it than that.

Of course, Zero was the one to demonstrate that the best. By mostly utilizing mobility advantages and by keeping the pressure consistent -even when Tsu managed to reach high percentages- he could rely almost entirely on the fundamentals of his distinctively non-main Falcon to double eliminate Tsu. It's possible that Zero had his fair share of Lucario experience from playing against Serge in the past.

Honestly, I'm just hoping that Nairo manages to dodge Zero in bracket and win Frostbite just to see people's reactions.

Unfortunately the exact opposite happened and Nairo got double-eliminated by the best player of ZSS' worst matchup. Still, I hope this result will open people's eyes about ZSS. The character is still monstrously powerful and placing her outside of top 5 requires a pretty damn legit justification at this point. You really think Mario, Mewtwo, Fox or Cloud are better than her? Marth? Don't make me laugh.

Nairo's performance was stellar. Look at how well dabuz did: takes the winner of the tournament to game 5 and eliminates Void [who took out MKLeo], Zinoto and Salem [who took out Shuton and Komorikiri]. And then Nairo comes and rolls over that man with a clear 3-0 just like that. If that doesn't demonstrate the plainly obvious fact that ZSS belongs among the absolute top of the tier list after all that Nairo did in Japan I don't know what else a character has to do be considered top. Cloud failed to prove his worth as a character at super majors a few times now but all the tier lists I've seen recently, including those that will be used to add up the 'official' tier list, have Cloud in top 3 or close to it and ZSS considerably lower - often outside of top 10 alltogether.

tl;dr Nairo is still the 2nd best player in the world, ZSS is still top 5 and the upcoming tierlist is bound to become a meme in no time.

 

[Bowserboy3]

ZSS is still top 5

I mean, that's a bold statement to put out there - it's not fact, and is quite debatable to be fair.

However, I do 100% agree with you that people do give ZSS the shaft nowadays. When I see posts that claim she's merely high tier, it hurts.

Glad there are still people out there that can see she's still amazing.

 

[Fenny]

I agree; Olimar is quite slept upon IMO.

3 purple Pikmin (heck, even just 2; 2 purple and 1 blue might also be amazing) is actually pretty bonkers. He's got throw combos (and a good aerial to ground combo game too, such as throw, aerial into grab, repeat) and a kill throw which helps his viability a bunch (most good characters have these).

And let's not forget Dabuz won a game with Olimar; of course this is less notable, but proves that he can be used.

I'm interested to see what Olimar's MU's are like. I can see him doing well against characters that have poorer aerial to ground transitioning, for some reason; his ability to AC his aerials quickly and his ranged smashes help.

---

In another topic, I made a post the other day about Rosalina being able to deal with Bayonetta if played correctly.

I am glad Dabuz helped prove my point by beating Salem 3-0 (using Rosalina for the first 2 games).

That MU is not as bad as it seems.

Also, it looks like staying mostly Rosalina still works for Dabuz; REALLY hope it was just a bad mental phase he was going through. He needs to stop doubting his ability with Rosalina. It's still amazing. His solo Rosalina game has also noticeably improved, which is a good sign.

Well I mean Salem gets dragged by Dabuz because he plays the MU completely wrong. His regular patient playstyle gives Dabuz the chance to set up his wall of defense; he plays right into Dabuz's hands.

Compare him to Captain Zack, who makes it hard for him to breathe by applying massive amounts of pressure on him and making sure he never feels comfortable or has the time to set up. That's why the last time they fought Zack ripped his Rosa to pieces.

Really if Salem and Zack just merged each other's playstyles together then they'd probably have a character who would win majors for sure. But right now they're like each other's missing half.

 

[Bowserboy3]

Well I mean Salem gets dragged by Dabuz because he plays the MU completely wrong. His regular patient playstyle gives Dabuz the chance to set up his wall of defense; he plays right into Dabuz's hands.

Compare him to Captain Zack, who makes it hard for him to breathe by applying massive amounts of pressure on him and making sure he never feels comfortable or has the time to set up. That's why the last time they fought Zack ripped his Rosa to pieces.

Really if Salem and Zack just merged each other's playstyles together then they'd probably have a character who would win majors for sure. But right now they're like each other's missing half.

That's a fair point.

But even so, there are things about the interactions between the characters that help Rosalina; her crawl helps a lot in this MU for avoiding spacing moves and combo starters such as Bair and Uair.

Luma just being there allows Rosalina to escape combos easier if Bayonetta hits Luma first, for example (hitlag Bayonetta receives upon hitting Luma gives Rosalina more time to escape).

Those kind of things that get overlooked was my main point, but I still believe this MU is blown up too much. As I said before, Bayonetta still has the advantage in my eyes, but it's minor; 55:45. Not as bad as what is usually stated, IMO anyway.

 

[Luigi player]

I don't know why it's so common to dislike Lucarios aura. Everyone in this thread seems to have some agreed upon consensus that it's stupid and jankey.

Lucario was designed to have aura, it's his thing, it's what makes him an interesting character. It's his limit/Luma, if that makes sense. Not only is it good to define him as a character and make him interesting, but it's clearly not overpowered or Lucario would be a top tier character. Honestly, without aura existing he would be a pretty ****ty character who would be used even less than he already is.

I'm happy he has it. It's what makes him usable.

It's just that most people like consistency. If you win neutral 100 times against your opponent and have a super large %lead or even stocklead, then you want to feel like you have the advantage in the match. But Lucarios aura mechanic, especially with rage as well almost negates this. Lucario could always make comebacks, you're never safe from him. And the bigger your lead is against him, the stronger he gets. 1-2 mistakes can take your stock instantly.
It just makes him annoying to play against. Nobody likes playing against ICs where if you get grabbed once you die.

Rage and aura are just mechanics that benefit the losing player, which is a stupid thing competitively. Though of course the winning player can take advantage of it if he manages to take the first stock, so it's not completely just a worse-player-help.

Of course Lucario is really weak without aura and some characters have a better neutral while others have different stuff which defines them, but these mechanics, plus ding dongs and stuff like that is something people usually dislike (of course they use it to win because it's there, so why wouldn't they).

It would just be better to have a more consistent way of how things go and not overpower your opponent by beating him.

Lucario is hype and all, but you can't say it isn't stupid that he can kill you with 2-3 hits from 0, just because you were playing good against him.

He was already super scary in Brawl, and imo he was more fun to play there. His stray hits in Smash4 are kinda hard to land. His hitboxes are weird and his moves kinda bad and some are pretty laggy. But of course it's fun for the Lucario player (or viewers) to see the broken final boss-god that is max aura+rage Lucario, lol.


Imo they should nerf his aura a bit (his min aura shouldn't be that pathetic and his max not that overpowered) and make his moves be better.
Same with DK or Bowser. Those things are just frustrating to deal with. Just make them better elsewhere, there is enough stuff where they are lacking a lot.

It is more fun, at least to me, when you can play the game normally the whole time and not have to rely on getting that grab and jank kill that you need to stay in the match.

 

[Ziodyne 21]

Well I mean Salem gets dragged by Dabuz because he plays the MU completely wrong. His regular patient playstyle gives Dabuz the chance to set up his wall of defense; he plays right into Dabuz's hands.

Compare him to Captain Zack, who makes it hard for him to breathe by applying massive amounts of pressure on him and making sure he never feels comfortable or has the time to set up. That's why the last time they fought Zack ripped his Rosa to pieces.

Really if Salem and Zack just merged each other's playstyles together then they'd probably have a character who would win majors for sure. But right now they're like each other's missing half.

My thoughts exactly. Dabuz is a master of patient and passive play. Salem tried to play Dabuz's game and got bodied hard because of it.

Look at how his set vs Nario went for contrast. Nario kept in his face the entire time and didn't give Dabuz a chance to even think about how to set up his usual defense . That is why he was the one who got bodied hard in that set.

 

[Heracr055]

That's the thing though. Lucario's very threatening to a healthy portion of the cast that's in top tier, since they're typically lightweight and/or excellent at controlling the neutral without the ability to close stocks. Diddy is excellent at neutral and has incredible tools to close out the stock in Dtilt and Banana, which was demonstrated in Grand Finals.
And I think it's a bit unfair comparing Luke's Aura to IC grab, since the former's fatal to lightweights/late killers while the latter's fatal against anyone. I think chars who kill much earlier (Ryu and possibly other heavies, for example) will perform well since Lucario won't live long enough to abuse Aura.

Edit: Calling Tsu's Frostbite characters LucaRyu

 

[Skeeter Mania]

And I think it's a bit unfair comparing Luke's Aura to IC grab, since the former's fatal to lightweights/late killers while the latter's fatal against anyone. I think chars who kill much earlier (Ryu and possibly other heavies, for example) will perform well since Lucario won't live long enough to abuse Aura.

Could this mean that Ike could have a resurgence?

 

[~ Gheb ~]

I mean, that's a bold statement to put out there - it's not fact, and is quite debatable to be fair.

Is it really though?

What characters can at this point claim to be irrefutably just straight-up better than her? If you argue from a practical angle based on empirical evidence and observable data you pretty much have to give the number 1 spot to Diddy. After that things are not in any way clear though. Bayonetta and especially Cloud, who are often complained about, do not frequently live up to their reputation on the biggest stage. Nairo alone has probably already as many top tier wins this year as all the big name Cloud players added together do - and that's not even including Marss [and the few wins Choco or other ZSS players may have gotten] whose results this year I don't actually know about. ZSS to all intents and purposes shoud be considered better than Cloud until proven otherwise because top level results lead to no other conclusion. In the realm of the major international tournaments, ZSS is competing with Sheik and Bayonetta for a spot between 2nd and 4th. If somebody wants to argue that she shouldn't be up there then the burden of proof is on them but I promise you that you will not find five characters in this game that are better than ZSS.

 

[my_T]

For those that have not kept up with Lucario since release

Lucario loses to Ness, Lucas, DK, Bowser, Falcon, Corrin, and Ryu. Pretty sure he loses to Sheik as well

 

[blackghost]

Watching tsu matches showed that there is a difference between respecting a character and playing scarred. I lost count how many times tsu opponent either dropped a punish (salem especially) or did nothing (zero in winners stands out) lucario hits hard and demands respect but characters with true kill confirms or kill throws that are above average won't struggle when they get used to the mu.
The first time I played a lucario that was good was the first time I missed Ness. Lol.

 

[Skeeter Mania]

For those that have not kept up with Lucario since release

Lucario loses to Ness, Lucas, DK, Bowser, Falcon, Corrin, and Ryu. Pretty sure he loses to Sheik as well

What about Fox and Ike?

 

[Frihetsanka]

Cloud failed to prove his worth as a character at super majors a few times now[...]

Not a super major but 2GGC: Midwest Mayhem Saga had 3 Clouds in top 4. You should also remember that player skill is often more important than characters at top level of play (well, at any level of play, really). Nairo is an incredibly strong player, but that isn't enough to prove that ZSS is top 5, in my opinion. I think she's probably top 7 though. Does it matter much if she's top 5 or top 7 though? She's somewhere in top tier, that's what's important.

 

[Floor]

I'll be honest I consider Zss top 5 still as well; if not like number 6. If you like going off of results then Nairo makes every argument for it. If not, well her MU spread isn't particularly lacking. Top 4 is pretty set in stone it seems. The order may change, but top 4 seems to consistently be Bayo Cloud Diddy and Sheik. After these obvious 4 I can't think of anyone who for sure takes it over zss. Mario? Ally says he's 9th

 

[TDK]

For those that have not kept up with Lucario since release

Lucario loses to Ness, Lucas, DK, Bowser, Falcon, Corrin, and Ryu. Pretty sure he loses to Sheik as well

Tsu's beaten Mr. R, VoiD, and Kameme. I don't think he loses to Sheik. The rest I could believe except maybe Falcon and Corrin.

 

[irokex13]

Is it really though?

What characters can at this point claim to be irrefutably just straight-up better than her? If you argue from a practical angle based on empirical evidence and observable data you pretty much have to give the number 1 spot to Diddy. After that things are not in any way clear though. Bayonetta and especially Cloud, who are often complained about, do not frequently live up to their reputation on the biggest stage. Nairo alone has probably already as many top tier wins this year as all the big name Cloud players added together do - and that's not even including Marss [and the few wins Choco or other ZSS players may have gotten] whose results this year I don't actually know about. ZSS to all intents and purposes shoud be considered better than Cloud until proven otherwise because top level results lead to no other conclusion. In the realm of the major international tournaments, ZSS is competing with Sheik and Bayonetta for a spot between 2nd and 4th. If somebody wants to argue that she shouldn't be up there then the burden of proof is on them but I promise you that you will not find five characters in this game that are better than ZSS.

I get you don't like Cloud or whatever and that you really like ZSS, but there is no reason to straight up lie about results. She regularly gets around the least results of the top tiers. Being top 5 really doesn't matter at this point. All of the top 11 are viable contenders to win majors.

 

[Frihetsanka]

All of the top 11 are viable contenders to win majors.

Let's be real: In Smash 4 a character doesn't even need to be top 11 to be a viable contender to win a major. Lucario almost won Frostbite, and Mega Man almost won EVO 2016.

 

[|RK|]

Let's be real: In Smash 4 a character doesn't even need to be top 11 to be a viable contender to win a major. Lucario almost won Frostbite, and Mega Man almost won EVO 2016.

Slight difference between Mega Man and Lucario, I think... Mega Man genuinely struggled (and continues to struggle) with one guy. GFs was a shutout. Comparatively, Lucario put in work all the way through, running through his supposed bad MUs. Though it may have been a different story if Larry showed up?

 

[TDK]

Tampa Never sleeps 7 (193 Entrants) (Florida)

1st: Static Manny
2nd: Dyr
3rd: Wormynugget
4th: Child
5th: DJ Jack
5th: Cashmere
7th: 8BitMan
7th: Saj
9th: Mew2King
9th: RoguePenguin
9th: Rideae
9th: 3Fresh Lade
13th: Headshot
13th: KidG
13th: Ryo
13th: True Blue

Note: DOOM! placed 49th, losing to 3Fresh Lade and Purple Guy

 

[BTVolta]

Tampa Never sleeps 7 (193 Entrants) (Florida)
9th: Rideae (Notably, Rideae lost to Cashmere's Falcon 2-0 in losers)

Not terribly notable since Cashmere beats Rideae pretty regularly. He understands the MU like no other Falcon and here's an example:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jk-gGyQ7JwQ&t=219s
Although it does look strange to those who don't know their history.

Tsu's beaten Mr. R, VoiD, and Kameme. I don't think he loses to Sheik. The rest I could believe except maybe Falcon and Corrin.

In day's MU chart he did put falcon as slight losing, but it is 6 months old so he might have had a change in opinion. Goma I believe had him at even but I'm not 100% sure since I don't read Japanese well. Corrin also seems to be slightly losing in both charts as well.
Goma:https://twitter.com/gmmg_tea/status/817044548442419200
Day:https://twitter.com/_OnlyDay_/status/771033160855482368

 

[Laken64]

To all the people saying "stop overeating to one result", 's ability to turn MU's instantly in his favour is something that cannot be overlooked. It's less of people overreacting to a result, and more a player showing/proving what a character can do when played correctly to us all.

The aura mechanic is very dumb, I won't try and mask that. However, I will point out that Lucario's overall frame data is quite poor; his most powerful KO moves, such as Bair and his Smashes, are all very slow to start up and have a fair amount of lag after them. Smash 4 Lucario with some of his Brawl frame data would be really, REALLY dumb.

And we have to stop discrediting Tsu's performance and dismissing it because "Aura luck/jank". Yes, aura helps Lucario win games, but it takes a skilled player to utilise it, and Tsu played like a god yesterday. You can watch literally all of Tsu's top 8 run and see the skill; just look at all the times he was knocked off stage and battered about upon recovering (look at how many times he teched and recovered back to continue). Just look how amazing his DI was (these two points mean a LOT for allowing Lucario to perform at his best). More importantly, just look how well he managed to stay calm and play at the +130% he often needed to. Tsu was performing combos and getting in his damage in many ways that other Lucario players do not (I liked his use of throwing an Aura Sphere at the end of an aerial combo to get that extra damage). Tsu was pushing his character to the limit. Simply dismissing what he has done because "Aura is dumb" is very backwards in terms of development for the metagame.

Lucario has always had a steady stream of results overall; perhaps less common at top level, but worldwide and in all levels of play, Lucario pulls in a fair amount of results. This is why it doesn't surprise me to see a good result from Lucario at top level. It's not really a "freak result". A "freak result" would be a complete outlier with almost no results () doing what Lucario has done.

Whether Lucario is high tier, top tier, whether you don't like Lucario's design because it strays from the norm, whatever. We have to accept and respect the fact that Lucario can perform, as showcased by Tsu.

I personally don't mind the Aura mechanic much. Being KO'd at 40% is kind of dumb, again - I won't lie, but it's not something that's actually easy to pull off. Like most characters in this game, it's a mechanic that takes skill to utilise/abuse.

When it comes to Lucario's most relevant kill moves I'm very surprised that no one mentions up air, it has a STUPID hitbox and it's basically a hoo hah (up throw up air) that kills absurdly early with aura and even when not with aura it's can still finish the job. In one of his games in GF up air killed ZeRo at 123% on Battlefield with NO RAGE OR AURA at all at 23%

 

[~ Gheb ~]

I love how people bring up the player skill argument when it comes to Nairo's ZSS while simultaneously ignoring the fact that Cloud's being played by the likes of Komorikiri, MKLeo, Tweek, Ned, Anti, RAIN, Mr r and occasionally even Zero. The double standards in here are real.

She regularly gets around the least results of the top tiers.

So I checked out all the Category 3 and 4 tournaments of this year [+ Niconico Tokaigi which only didn't qualify for the ranking because of its low entrants number] that had at least one of the big three ZSS players in attendance to see if this statement can hold up with the facts.

Spoiler: Umebura Tokaigi Qualifiers

1st: Nairo (Zero Suit Samus, Cloud)
2nd: KEN (Sonic)
3rd: 9B (Bayonetta)
4th: Kirihara (Rosalina & Luma)
5th: HIKARU (Donkey Kong)
5th: T (Link)
7th: Nietono (Diddy Kong, Sheik)
7th: Atelier (Rosalina & Luma)
9th: Shky (Zero Suit Samus)
9th: Ri-ma (Toon Link)
9th: Raito (Duck Hunt)
9th: Jill (Fox)
13th: Mansa (Peach)
13th: Brood (Duck Hunt)
13th: Choco (Zero Suit Samus)
13th: Earth (Pit)

Category 3 tournament; 3x ZSS in top 16; ZSS outperforming Sonic, Bayonetta and Rosalina; Not counting Diddy Kong / Sheik [shared mains] and Fox [not played by a top level user]; Cloud absent;

Spoiler: Niconico Tokaigi 2017

1st Nairo (Zero Suit Samus)
2nd KEN (Sonic)
3rd Abadango (Mewtwo)
4th Tsu- (Lucario)
5th Kirihara (Rosalina & Luma)
5th Ranai (Villager)
7th 9B (Bayonetta)
7th dabuz (Rosalina & Luma, Olimar)
9th ESAM (Pikachu)
9th Ally (Mario)
9th Mr r (Sheik)
9th Shuton (Olimar)

Not officially categorized but pretty much equivalent to a Category 4 tournament; ZSS outperforming Sonic, Mewtwo, Rosalina, Bayonetta, Mario, Sheik - many of which are represented by their stronges respective player; Cloud and Diddy absent;

Spoiler: Sumabato 15

1st: Shuton (Olimar)
2nd: 9B (Bayonetta)
3rd: Choco (Zero Suit Samus)
4th: Rizeasu (Marth)
5th: Saiya (Captain Falcon)
5th: Suinoko (Diddy Kong)
7th: Tsu- (Lucario)
7th: You3 (Duck Hunt)
9th: Kome (Shulk)
9th: HIKARU (Donkey Kong)
9th: MASA (Ness)
9th: Masashi (Cloud)
13th: Atelier (Rosalina & Luma)
13th: Mangalitza (Cloud)
13th: Ron (Mario, Luigi)
13th: FILIP (Mario)

Category 3 tournament; non-Nairo ZSS outperforming Marth, Diddy Kong, Cloud and Rosalina;

Spoiler: 2GGC: Genesis Saga

1st: ZeRo (Diddy Kong, Sheik)
2nd: Komorikiri (Cloud, Sonic)
3rd: VoiD (Sheik)
4th: Tweek (Cloud)
5th: MKLeo (Marth, Cloud)
5th: Zenyou (Mario)
7th: 6WX (Sonic)
7th: JK (Bayonetta)
9th: Javi (Cloud, Sheik)
9th: Eon (Fox)
9th: Mr. E (Marth)
9th: K9sbruce (Diddy Kong, Sheik)
13th: Dabuz (Rosalina & Luma)
13th: DSS (Meta Knight)
13th: Rich Brown (Mewtwo)
13th: Marss (Zero Suit Samus)
17th: MVD (Diddy Kong)
17th: Fatality (Captain Falcon)
17th: Elegant (Luigi)
17th: Dath (Robin)
17th: Teb (Mario)
17th: Saiki (Sheik)
17th: Aarvark (Villager)
17th: ImHip (Olimar, Duck Hunt)
25th: Nicko (Shulk)
25th: Vash (Little Mac)
25th: Tyrant (Meta Knight)
25th: ESAM (Pikachu)
25th: Ezreal (Pikachu)
25th: KOSSismoss (Mr. Game & Watch)
25th: Pink Fresh (Bayonetta)
25th: Phoenix (Sonic)

Category 3 or 4 tournament; non-Nairo ZSS matching Mewtwo and Rosalina; outperformed by several characters including Marth, Diddy Kong, Sheik and Cloud mostly;

Spoiler: SGC 2017

1st: KEN (Sonic)
2nd: 9B (Bayonetta)
3rd: Choco (Zero Suit Samus)
4th: Kirihara (Rosalina & Luma)
5th: Nyanko (Sheik)
5th: Umeki (Peach)
7th: Mao (Cloud)
7th: Atelier (Rosalina & Luma)
9th: Kisha (Bowser)
9th: Tsu- (Lucario)
9th: Pichi (Captain Falcon)
9th: Abadango (Mewtwo)
13th: Lea (Greninja)
13th: T (Link)
13th: Yuzu (Rosalina & Luma)
13th: Tosshi (Charizard)

Category 3 tournament; non-Nairo ZSS outperforming Rosalina, Sheik, Cloud and Mewtwo;

Spoiler: MSM81

1st: Tweek (Donkey Kong)
2nd: MKLeo (Cloud, Marth, Sheik)
3rd: Komorikiri (Cloud, Sonic)
4th: ESAM (Pikachu, Samus)
5th: 6WX (Sonic)
5th: Tyrant (Meta Knight)
7th: Scizor (Link, Greninja)
7th: Javi (Cloud)
9th: Mr. E (Marth)
9th: Marss (Zero Suit Samus)
9th: Elegant (Luigi)
9th: MVD (Mario)
13th: Mr. ConCon (Luigi)
13th: Slither2Hunter (Meta Knight)
13th: Zxl (Fox, Mario)
13th: K9sbruce (Diddy Kong)

Category 3 tournament; non-Nairo ZSS outperformed by several characters, several absentees as well (Diddy, Sheik, Bayonetta)

Spoiler: Genesis 4

1st: MKLeo (Marth, Cloud)
2nd: Ally (Mario)
3rd: ZeRo (Diddy Kong, Cloud)
4th: Captain Zack (Bayonetta, Peach, Wii Fit Trainer)
5th: Abadango (Mewtwo)
5th: Mr. R (Sheik)
7th: Komorikiri (Cloud, Sonic)
7th: Dabuz (Rosalina & Luma, Bayonetta)
9th: Ranai (Villager)
9th: ANTi (Mario, Cloud)
9th: Tweek (Cloud, Donkey Kong)
9th: VoiD (Sheik)
13th: Larry Lurr (Fox)
13th: 9B (Bayonetta)
13th: Elegant (Luigi)
13th: ESAM (Pikachu, Mewtwo)
17th: Marss (Zero Suit Samus)
17th: Fatality (Captain Falcon)
17th: Nairo (Zero Suit Samus, Bowser)
17th: Child (Bayonetta)
17th: Chag (Bayonetta)
17th: NAKAT (Fox, Lucina)
17th: MVD (Diddy Kong)
17th: Rich Brown (Mewtwo)
25th: Salem (Bayonetta)
25th: Locus (Ryu)
25th: Kameme (Mega Man, Cloud)
25th: Earth (Pit)
25th: Brood (Duck Hunt)
25th: K9 (Diddy Kong, Sheik)
25th: AeroLink (Bayonetta)
25th: Javi (Cloud, Sheik)

Category 4 tournament; outperformed by several characters

Spoiler: Frostbite 2017

1st Zero (Diddy Kong)
2nd Tsu- (Lucario, Ryu)
3rd Nairo (Zero Suit Samus)
4th dabuz (Rosalina & Luma, Olimar)
5th Salem (Bayonetta)
5th Shuton (Olimar)
7th Zinoto (Diddy Kong)
7th Ally (Mario)
9th Void (Sheik)
9th Some (Greninja)
9th Mr. E (Marth)
9th Kameme (Sheik, Mega Man)
13th WaDi (Mewtwo)
13th Deathhorse (Mewtwo)
13th MKLeo (Cloud, Marth)
13th Kirihara (Rosalina & Luma)
17th Komorikiri (Cloud, Sonic)
17th Ryuga (Corrin)
17th KEN (Sonic)
17th Captain Zack (Bayonetta)
17th Ned (Cloud)
17th Seagull Joe (Sonic)
17th Abadango (Mewtwo, Meta Knight)
17th Smasher1001 (Mario, Kirby)

Category 4 tournament; ZSS outperforming Rosalina, Bayonetta, Mario, Sheik, Marth, Mewtwo and Sonic;

I don't see how you can conclude that ZSS gets "around the least results of the top tiers" at all when she outperforms Rosalina, Sonic, Mario and Mewtwo quite clearly and consistently. There's little actual interaction with Fox but looking at these results you wouldn't get the idea that his results could possibly be better than those of ZSS. That leaves Diddy Kong, Sheik, Bayonetta and Cloud as the remaining characters that do as well or better than she does and ZSS has more actual tournament wins than Bayonetta and Sheik do. She also managed to place within the top 3 in 5 of the 8 tournaments that qualify for this analysis and she always did it solo except in the Tokaigi qualifier. The closest thing to a solo-Cloud placing top 3 was Komorikiri at MSM81 where he may not have used Sonic at all. Regardless of what you specifically conclude from this, the claim that her results are among the worst of the top tiers are quite obviously counterfactual. Her results are wildly impressive.

 

[Nobie]

Not terribly notable since Cashmere beats Rideae pretty regularly. He understands the MU like no other Falcon and here's an example:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jk-gGyQ7JwQ&t=219s
Although it does look strange to those who don't know their history.


In day's MU chart he did put falcon as slight losing, but it is 6 months old so he might have had a change in opinion. Goma I believe had him at even but I'm not 100% sure since I don't read Japanese well. Corrin also seems to be slightly losing in both charts as well.
Goma:https://twitter.com/gmmg_tea/status/817044548442419200
Day:https://twitter.com/_OnlyDay_/status/771033160855482368

Goma's chart isn't a true match-up chart.

The categories are:

Both sides disadvantaged
Tough
Tiring
Annoying
Scary
Not Easy at All

 

[Frihetsanka]

I love how people bring up the player skill argument when it comes to Nairo's ZSS while simultaneously ignoring the fact that Cloud's being played by the likes of Komorikiri, MKLeo, Tweek, Ned, Anti, RAIN, Mr r and occasionally even Zero.

The implications are that those players either don't actually solo main Cloud or are not as good as Nairo.

Does Cloud have any main that is top 10 (or top 15 even) that solo mains Cloud? komorikiri almost fits the bill, but he also plays Sonic, and he's Japanese, so it's harder for him to attend American events. When he does attend he generally gets really impressive results though (although he doesn't solo-main Cloud).

Let's not forget that Cloud is #1 on Das Koopa's results list. Zero Suit Samus? #9. This shows that Cloud does get a good amount of good results (although I'd be interested to see the quality vs quantity ratio for him).

Nairo is an amazing player, probably the 4th best in the world. If he had been playing, say, Bayonetta we'd see more Bayonetta results instead.

There's little actual interaction with Fox but looking at these results you wouldn't get the idea that his results could possibly be better than those of ZSS.

Is Fox better than Zero Suit Samus, or is Nairo better than Larry Lurr?

 

[|RK|]

Goma's chart isn't a true match-up chart.

The categories are:

Both sides disadvantaged
Tough
Tiring
Annoying
Scary
Not Easy at All

Also, on Twitter Day says that any MU can be even except Fox lol.

 

[ARGHETH]

The implications are that those players either don't actually solo main Cloud or are not as good as Nairo.

Does Cloud have any main that is top 10 (or top 15 even) that solo mains Cloud? komorikiri almost fits the bill, but he also plays Sonic, and he's Japanese, so it's harder for him to attend American events. When he does attend he generally gets really impressive results though (although he doesn't solo-main Cloud).

Let's not forget that Cloud is #1 on Das Koopa's results list. Zero Suit Samus? #9. This shows that Cloud does get a good amount of good results (although I'd be interested to see the quality vs quantity ratio for him).

Nairo is an amazing player, probably the 4th best in the world. If he had been playing, say, Bayonetta we'd see more Bayonetta results instead.

Is Fox better than Zero Suit Samus, or is Nairo better than Larry Lurr?

This argument again? If Zero played another character, Diddy's results would drop and that character's would go up too; doesn't mean Diddy's overrated.
And to answer your question, Tweek's 17th on the PGR rankings and 18th on Orionrank.

 

[Yonder]

Slight difference between Mega Man and Lucario, I think... Mega Man genuinely struggled (and continues to struggle) with one guy. GFs was a shutout. Comparatively, Lucario put in work all the way through, running through his supposed bad MUs. Though it may have been a different story if Larry showed up?

Keep in mind that Frostbite could have been very different if the Ryu counterpick for Sheik vs Kameme didn't somehow change the momentum of the match. Tsu was being beaten quite convincingly vs Kameme's sheik and probably wouldn't have made it he comback had he not switched to Ryu for a round.

 

[Frihetsanka]

Keep in mind that Frostbite could have been very different if the Ryu counterpick for Sheik vs Kameme didn't somehow change the momentum of the match. Tsu was being beaten quite convincingly vs Kameme's sheik and probably wouldn't have made it he comback had he not switched to Ryu for a round.

This is one of the issues of looking too much at results. What if Tsu had not switched to Ryu? Perhaps he would have been knocked to loser's by Kameme and eliminated soon thereafter. This would not change Lucario in any way, yet people who are now calling Lucario top 15 might not even have supported Lucario in top 20 then.

Results are interesting, but they only say so much.

This argument again? If Zero played another character, Diddy's results would drop and that character's would go up too; doesn't mean Diddy's overrated.

If ZeRo dropped Diddy, would people still consider Diddy top 3? The character didn't change at all, just the players.

 

[irokex13]

So I checked out all the Category 3 and 4 tournaments of this year [+ Niconico Tokaigi which only didn't qualify for the ranking because of its low entrants number] that had at least one of the big three ZSS players in attendance to see if this statement can hold up with the facts.

I don't see how you can conclude that ZSS gets "around the least results of the top tiers" at all when she outperforms Rosalina, Sonic, Mario and Mewtwo quite clearly and consistently. There's little actual interaction with Fox but looking at these results you wouldn't get the idea that his results could possibly be better than those of ZSS. That leaves Diddy Kong, Sheik, Bayonetta and Cloud as the remaining characters that do as well or better than she does and ZSS has more actual tournament wins than Bayonetta and Sheik do. She also managed to place within the top 3 in 5 of the 8 tournaments that qualify for this analysis and she always did it solo except in the Tokaigi qualifier. The closest thing to a solo-Cloud placing top 3 was Komorikiri at MSM81 where he may not have used Sonic at all. Regardless of what you specifically conclude from this, the claim that her results are among the worst of the top tiers are quite obviously counterfactual. Her results are wildly impressive.

Now this seems somewhat obvious to me, but if you only look at tournaments from the LAST TWO MONTHS and only include the tournaments where her BEST PLAYERS attend, then of course she's going to look amazing. If I only look at tournaments that WaDi/Rich Brown/Abadango attend, then M2 looks top 5 free. When top ZSS players show up, they really show up, but most of the other top tiers simply outdo her in results due to the fact that they have more representation. Also, if this is about her placing on the next tier list, shouldn't we be looking at tournament results since August 22 (the release date of the last tier list) of last year?

 

[|RK|]

Keep in mind that Frostbite could have been very different if the Ryu counterpick for Sheik vs Kameme didn't somehow change the momentum of the match. Tsu was being beaten quite convincingly vs Kameme's sheik and probably wouldn't have made it he comback had he not switched to Ryu for a round.

That's true, if not one of the most ironic counterpicks ever. Has anyone noticed that we keep talking about the optimal way to fight Ryu and Lucario after it doesn't work out?

On Reddit, Locus posted ZeRo's analysis on Ryu and said that he agreed with it, but the power of a patient Ryu was very understated. Playing Kirby and getting around his weaknesses has taught me a ton about the importance of percent leads, positioning, and watching the opponent to overcome his weaknesses. Apply that same mentality to stronger characters like Ryu and Lucario and you'll find that "the optimal way to fight them" doesn't always end up in a victory when you have strong fundamentals behind them. Because all either character needs is for you to make one mistake, and you're done.

Honestly, now thinking about how that style works with a character like Kirby, I truly believe Lucario and Ryu will only go up. Especially because they can legitimately cover a lot of the stage to keep people from running for free, make you afraid to be near them, and take the lead if you slip up once.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

This argument again? If Zero played another character, Diddy's results would drop and that character's would go up too; doesn't mean Diddy's overrated.

Correct.

Nairo doesn't inflate ZSS' results - just as Larry doesn't inflate the results of Fox or KEN doesn't inflate those of Sonic. Cloud on the other hand has a huge playerbase and if, say, Zero just randomly busts out Cloud at one point during a tournament he wins, he will get a fixed share of the ranking points regardless of whether he actually contributed anything towards Zero winning. Since neither the quality nor the quantity of a secondary is really measurable these things will not find an accurate reflection in any ranking. Tsu's Ryu counterpick may be the only thing that prevented him from having to go through losers bracket and yet it will still get the same credit as Komo's Sonic which didn't play a big role at all. That's why results always need to be analyzed thoroughly before being used in arguments.

And that's why it's so important to stress the fact that a huuuuuuuge part of Cloud's results come from his usage as a co-main or a secondary - even though solo-viability may not be the end of all arguments in smash 4, calling Cloud #1 just because he's #1 on Koopa's ranking would be ignoring half of the facts.

Let's not forget that Cloud is #1 on Das Koopa's results list.

Duh:

[...] Cloud's being played by the likes of Komorikiri, MKLeo, Tweek, Ned, Anti, RAIN, Mr r and occasionally even Zero.

 

[NINTENDO Galaxy]

Have you guys seen this? I just ran across it.

 

[Illuminose]

nairo is not the 2nd best player while the past two S tier events were won by one person (hint: not zero, ally, or nairo) and the last 3 A tier events (2ggc tours/frostbite) were won by zero. the people who win tournaments get 1st and 2nd.

and despite ally's sketchy losses at times, the peaks he has shown are far too strong. his dominant overall genesis run to 2nd place proves his abilities at his peak. his losers run at this frostbite was almost inhuman. he beat ranai for the first time, someone who dominated him in the past, won mario's worst matchup against the best player of that character (ken), won mario rosa against kirihara which is also not a good matchup, and defeated kameme to make top 8 through losers. he beats zero pretty much every time.

and on zss being top 5 (can't believe i have to entertain this in 2017). nairo vs dabuz was player vs player, as it's always been. it has been a long time since dabuz beat nairo, and the reason has very little to do with zss. this is also the best i've seen nairo play in a long time. and he STILL got washed by zero. if anything this truly proves that zss diddy cannot be won at top level, and that's pretty damning for the character because top 5 characters don't get obliterated by other top 5 characters. nairo is still coming off 17th at genesis where he lost to (no surprises here) top sheik and diddy, two matchups that are very hard to win at top level without significant cheese. zss is not solo viable at top level. bayo, diddy, sheik, cloud, sonic, marth, heck even mario/fox/rosa are solo viable. lucario is solo viable. mewtwo is solo viable. there even characters like corrin and olimar are solo viable. zss might not be worse than all these characters, but this says something. nairo maximizes zss cheese and makes a lot of amazing plays/reads, but even he can only get so far with that. it's sort of like ally with mario, except mario's bad matchups are not quite so bad and he's just a better character overall. zss can only go so far, and we've even seen the incredible player that is nairo hit his limit, struggling to break through character walls. i don't think zss can win a major in 2017 without a good bracket. i'm of the opinion that if nairo decided to dual main with cloud or lucina he might even be the best player in the world because he wouldn't be held back by zss. there is an upper limit for zss, and even if it somewhat possible to break it's so hard to do consistently that you cannot rely on it as an option.

 

[Nathan Richardson]

nairo is not the 2nd best player while the past two S tier events were won by one person (hint: not zero, ally, or nairo) and the last 3 A tier events (2ggc tours/frostbite) were won by zero. the people who win tournaments get 1st and 2nd.

and despite ally's sketchy losses at times, the peaks he has shown are far too strong. his dominant overall genesis run to 2nd place proves his abilities at his peak. his losers run at this frostbite was almost inhuman. he beat ranai for the first time, someone who dominated him in the past, won mario's worst matchup against the best player of that character (ken), won mario rosa against kirihara which is also not a good matchup, and defeated kameme to make top 8 through losers. he beats zero pretty much every time.

and on zss being top 5 (can't believe i have to entertain this in 2017). nairo vs dabuz was player vs player, as it's always been. it has been a long time since dabuz beat nairo, and the reason has very little to do with zss. this is also the best i've seen nairo play in a long time. and he STILL got washed by zero. if anything this truly proves that zss diddy cannot be won at top level, and that's pretty damning for the character because top 5 characters don't get obliterated by other top 5 characters. nairo is still coming off 17th at genesis where he lost to (no surprises here) top sheik and diddy, two matchups that are very hard to win at top level without significant cheese. zss is not solo viable at top level. bayo, diddy, sheik, cloud, sonic, marth, heck even mario/fox/rosa are solo viable. lucario is solo viable. mewtwo is solo viable. there even characters like corrin and olimar are solo viable. zss might not be worse than all these characters, but this says something. nairo maximizes zss cheese and makes a lot of amazing plays/reads, but even he can only get so far with that. it's sort of like ally with mario, except mario's bad matchups are not quite so bad and he's just a better character overall. zss can only go so far, and we've even seen the incredible player that is nairo hit his limit, struggling to break through character walls. i don't think zss can win a major in 2017 without a good bracket. i'm of the opinion that if nairo decided to dual main with cloud or lucina he might even be the best player in the world because he wouldn't be held back by zss. there is an upper limit for zss, and even if it somewhat possible to break it's so hard to do consistently that you cannot rely on it as an option.

So let me get this straight. And correct me if I'm wrong here because I'm wrong a LOT. Are you saying that the reason Nairo isn't winning more tourneys is a combination of character loyalty to ZSS and a refusal to grab a pocket or dual-main a character? I'm trying to simpify this because that was a LOT of text.

 

[David Viran]

nairo is not the 2nd best player while the past two S tier events were won by one person (hint: not zero, ally, or nairo) and the last 3 A tier events (2ggc tours/frostbite) were won by zero. the people who win tournaments get 1st and 2nd.

and despite ally's sketchy losses at times, the peaks he has shown are far too strong. his dominant overall genesis run to 2nd place proves his abilities at his peak. his losers run at this frostbite was almost inhuman. he beat ranai for the first time, someone who dominated him in the past, won mario's worst matchup against the best player of that character (ken), won mario rosa against kirihara which is also not a good matchup, and defeated kameme to make top 8 through losers. he beats zero pretty much every time.

and on zss being top 5 (can't believe i have to entertain this in 2017). nairo vs dabuz was player vs player, as it's always been. it has been a long time since dabuz beat nairo, and the reason has very little to do with zss. this is also the best i've seen nairo play in a long time. and he STILL got washed by zero. if anything this truly proves that zss diddy cannot be won at top level, and that's pretty damning for the character because top 5 characters don't get obliterated by other top 5 characters. nairo is still coming off 17th at genesis where he lost to (no surprises here) top sheik and diddy, two matchups that are very hard to win at top level without significant cheese. zss is not solo viable at top level. bayo, diddy, sheik, cloud, sonic, marth, heck even mario/fox/rosa are solo viable. lucario is solo viable. mewtwo is solo viable. there even characters like corrin and olimar are solo viable. zss might not be worse than all these characters, but this says something. nairo maximizes zss cheese and makes a lot of amazing plays/reads, but even he can only get so far with that. it's sort of like ally with mario, except mario's bad matchups are not quite so bad and he's just a better character overall. zss can only go so far, and we've even seen the incredible player that is nairo hit his limit, struggling to break through character walls. i don't think zss can win a major in 2017 without a good bracket. i'm of the opinion that if nairo decided to dual main with cloud or lucina he might even be the best player in the world because he wouldn't be held back by zss. there is an upper limit for zss, and even if it somewhat possible to break it's so hard to do consistently that you cannot rely on it as an option.

You say nairo beats dabuz because of the player MU but ignore that zero beats nairo all the time for the same reason. Nairo is about maximizing every conversion while zero is about not letting his opponent get any conversions at all and dominating neutral. Nairo has tried other characters against zero and they all failed just like his zss. In fact, Since zero's injury nairo has taken him to g5 twice, and both times were with zss.

PS dabuz beat nairo when they faced at umbura SAT.

 

[Bowserboy3]

With all this talk about him, I wonder how long it will be before Nairo himself comes back to this thread to post a reply?