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Official 4BR Tier List v1.0 - Competitive Impressions

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BunbUn129

Smash Ace
Joined
Oct 20, 2015
Messages
614
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Abu Dhabi, UAE
Corrin at 11th? At least ZeRo acknowledged how far off he was with Roy...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2GZhjC4uTk

This video is pretty damn cringe-worthy.

"Solid mid-tier with top-tier potential" has never been a more appropriate saying. Imagine Roy, with everything we know about his theory, in the same tier as the likes of Sheik and ZSS. Anyway, I really don't think anyone should take ZeRo's impressions on a character's potential and standing, because, in his eyes, everyone has the potential to be top 10.
 
Last edited:

Y2Kay

BLACK MAMBA FOREVER
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Why2Kay
Playing to my Heavies roots, Machamp my boi. I also want Weavile and Sceptile to be good. Pika seems like the best from the very small sample size of youtubers playing the game. By golly I can't control myself thinking about that game dude.
Bruh the Mewtwins are gonna be great, I can feel it in my bones

I think for once I'll be true to my namesake and main
(Shadow) Mewtwo

Oops, kinda off topic

:150:
 

Das Koopa

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Ryo did well with Corrin at SF2 and that's after a very short amount of time when his primary has been Ike. I think it's better to highball Corrin/Bayonetta since both characters have a lot of potential going forward (With Bayo obviously being the bigger threat)

I'm really, really interested in seeing Zero's opinion on upper/mid tiers, because people generally tend to agree on a rough order with high tiers whereas mid tiers are far more erratic in placement (Yoshi, R.O.B, Lucario, Pits, Falcon, Luigi, etc.)
 

Man Li Gi

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Nov 14, 2013
Messages
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ManLiGi
Bruh the Mewtwins are gonna be great, I can feel it in my bones

I think for once I'll be true to my namesake and main
(Shadow) Mewtwo

Oops, kinda off topic

:150:
I think we about on topic and relevant as all the salt was/is. IDGAF if I get a warning pertaining to my Pokken as that whole complaining section was seriously degenerative.
 

Halifax?

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171
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Texas
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WhataTreeBark
I couldn't have asked for Pokken to come out at a more fortunate time as I will be playing that game to hell and back just to avoid these defeatist attitudes.

I don't necessarily know when it became the norm to confuse analysis with complaining (while simultaneously not playing), but its really killing the vibe of the game for me.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Didn't you say that about Street Fighter V and you're still here? To each his own, defeatists exist in every game though. Reminds me of, "Yeah I won't support this candidate if his supporters keep acting like this." like... wtf? As if that has anything to do with your personal politics. Lame way to control discussion.
 

C0rvus

Pro Hands Catcher
Joined
Nov 11, 2014
Messages
1,554
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East Coast
Kinda off topic but when I look at Pokken all I get are Naruto Ninja Storm vibes and it super turns me off. Is it more of a fighting game than that?

Anyway, this thread likes to discuss minutiae and then circle around and complain about that discussion. It's an endless cycle. The fun just never ends :)
Do or DI is this weekend, I wish I could go, but alas, I get home a half a day too late to attend. We get some more top level gameplay, so it's always a good thing. I can't wait to see how people adapt to the new characters, and if ZeRo is right, Corrin will keep making waves, which I'm excited about. I don't think he's quite that good, though.
 

Nidtendofreak

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Well since making predictions about the DLC characters seems to be the in thing:

Corrin will fall. Hard. Least impressive of the last batch by far. People just... need to stop being stupid against Corrin basically. Nothing but the over tuned counter impresses me. Feel people should be handling that Side B a lot better than they currently are and will hopefully learn with time.

I'll admit I was wrong about Cloud and that they'll probably be in top tier. I don't think they'll be quite that high though. More in the top 10 range than top 5. Bayo is very much a wildcard still, could be top 3, could be barely high tier if people maximize SDI/figure out Witch Time.

Ryu will still very high up, will drop a bit though. Mewtwo will end up probably the middle of mid tier: they ain't high tier but they're pretty solid now. Lucas and Roy ain't going nowhere beyond a couple spots. Lucas will always be the "has potential but zero rep" guy, Roy is just.... looking pretty pale compared to that buffed Marth.
 

Man Li Gi

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Nov 14, 2013
Messages
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ManLiGi
Didn't you say that about Street Fighter V and you're still here? To each his own, defeatists exist in every game though. Reminds me of, "Yeah I won't support this candidate if his supporters keep acting like this." like... wtf? As if that has anything to do with your personal politics. Lame way to control discussion.
Say what? I don't own a PS4 so I'm waiting for PC port. Sorry, I guess I should allow my emotions run rampant and control everything I say instead of using logic and experience to my advantage. My b homie.
 
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Megamang

Smash Lord
Joined
Apr 21, 2015
Messages
1,791
I don't think he was saying that.

But who knows. Political statements/analogies always fall flat on gaming forums. Its a good way to divide people, and try to say something more political than based on, I dunno, the game we are all here for.

Anyways, any of you low/mid tier guys think your character does particularly well vs Bayonetta/Cloud? I hear lots of doom and gloom about how they are going to destroy diversity, and I don't particularly disagree, but I think the shifting meta is always an opportunity for some characters to rise up. I think Lucas looks good; having a zoning based game is pretty nice vs Cloud, and having such powerful grabs is nice vs Bayonetta. The problem, in my eyes, is that Witch Time can trigger on Zair and a close PK fire... but, on the plus side, what matters with Witch Time is how close you are when it is triggered. Lucas flies backwards when he uses the PKFire, so I could see it being really nice for baiting/staling Witch Time, which is super nice since a stale Witch Time makes bayonetta susceptible to being pressured... especially when his multihits can help him survive. Sure, you are screwed with a 3 second Witch Time, but with a 1 second Witch Time a hitbox can actually make the difference.

I'd imagine any bigbody is screwed by Bayonetta, and any mediocre sword character really regrets trying to out sword Cloud. I also feel like yoshi haaaates Witch Time.
 

Nobie

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I don't think he was saying that.

But who knows. Political statements/analogies always fall flat on gaming forums. Its a good way to divide people, and try to say something more political than based on, I dunno, the game we are all here for.

Anyways, any of you low/mid tier guys think your character does particularly well vs Bayonetta/Cloud? I hear lots of doom and gloom about how they are going to destroy diversity, and I don't particularly disagree, but I think the shifting meta is always an opportunity for some characters to rise up. I think Lucas looks good; having a zoning based game is pretty nice vs Cloud, and having such powerful grabs is nice vs Bayonetta. The problem, in my eyes, is that Witch Time can trigger on Zair and a close PK fire... but, on the plus side, what matters with Witch Time is how close you are when it is triggered. Lucas flies backwards when he uses the PKFire, so I could see it being really nice for baiting/staling Witch Time, which is super nice since a stale Witch Time makes bayonetta susceptible to being pressured... especially when his multihits can help him survive. Sure, you are screwed with a 3 second Witch Time, but with a 1 second Witch Time a hitbox can actually make the difference.

I'd imagine any bigbody is screwed by Bayonetta, and any mediocre sword character really regrets trying to out sword Cloud. I also feel like yoshi haaaates Witch Time.
I think the only bigbody truly screwed by Bayo is Ganondorf. Bowser has powerful grab options, a crawl, and comparable frame data in neutral featuring intangible limbs. Donkey Kong has mobility, decent frame data, and the Ding Dong. Charizard has up throw, good resistance to vertical KOs. Even Dedede has SOMETHING, like the fact that Gordos cut through uncharged Bullet Arts Climax and being the most vertically resilient in the game.
 
Last edited:

Thinkaman

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People tend to make lists based on personal anecdotes, gut instincts, and circular echo chamber reasoning rather than hard data.

I think this is problematic for our discussion and would like to do something to address it.
Well, guess I'll put my money where my mouth is and collect some hard data, to serve as an example.

I.

Let's take a look at the Smashboards tournament ranking results (by character) for events from Feb 1st - Now:



Several interesting things jump out, but let's break it down.

II.

The percentages are the % of players (of that character) who placed at the corresponding levels. In theory, this should be a similar spread for characters of all skill levels, if we assume that that players are themselves automatically filtering for tiers and only playing their best character(s).

In more advanced theory, we'd expect to see a slight tilt for higher-tier characters having higher percentages, merely because the most competitive "spike" mindset players (who win more as a group) will gravitate towards them.

We see important exceptions to this trend:

We all know that :4yoshi: has a top-level problem, but according to the data :4villager: and :4greninja: suffer similar fates in the aggregate smash community. Yes, iStudying and Ranai have made their few wins pretty big ones, but the general trend within this period still stands.


Always just short.

:4rob: and :4myfriends: are disproportionately played by people who perform really well with them. ROB is actually just, really strongly performing period.

Shockingly (to me), :4zss: wins relatively rarely for the pool of players that play her; she's more popular with the broader smash community than we (I?) assumed.

I've long said that feminine characters (including Jiggs), extreme heavyweights, and :4drmario: specifically all have abnormally high character loyalty such that they are played disproportionately by experienced mains only.


But muh wifu!

I've also suggested in private that this has a radical warping effect on win-rates relative to tier strength--and we see that here. All of those characters exhibit abnormally high Top 16 or Top 8 placement rates relative to the number of players using them--ESPECIALLY :4charizard: and :4dedede:, who may be even more dominant at lower level play than we suspected.

Curiously :4wario: is included in this pattern while :4lucina: is not, which is an important lesson about gender identity and assumptions.

III.

Returning to the top of the rankings, we see some surprising results. We can get a general placement score by combining the top 16/8/1 placements, weighted significantly towards the latter. We can see that 5/6ths of the entire cast falls within one standard deviation of the average score, with all the outliers being on the top.

The elephant in the room is that :4cloud: is king, and a whole boatload of people are both playing and winning with :4mario: at all levels of play. Looking back historically, this was no February fluke; Mario has been popular (and unlike Falcon, winning) everywhere for a long time.


Zero might not be worried about them, but this is currently the most typical Grand Finals in Smash 4.

What's striking is just how much stronger performing these two characters were over this period, about an entire standard deviation each above the others. In fact, if you were to turn this into a results list, it might look pretty shocking:

TOP LEVEL VIABLE:
SS: :4cloud:
S: :4mario:
A+: :4diddy::4bayonetta::4sheik:
A-: :4falcon::4corrin:
B+: :rosalina::4rob::4ness:
B-: :4metaknight::4zss::4fox::4luigi:
C+: :4yoshi::4pikachu::4sonic::4myfriends::4ryu:

NOT TOP LEVEL VIABLE:
C-: :4tlink::4marth::4villager::4littlemac::4greninja::4link::4peach::4mewtwo:
D+: :4wario2::4dedede::4kirby::4bowser::4falco::4pit::4darkpit::4bowserjr::4lucario::4feroy::4ganondorf::4dk:
E+: :4gaw::4robinm::4megaman::4jigglypuff::4lucas::4palutena::4shulk::4wiifit::4samus:
E-: :4lucina::4charizard::4drmario::4pacman::4olimar::4duckhunt::4zelda:

Note: I didn't include the Miis, because we (as a community) don't play with them much. (So there isn't enough data to submit for analysis.)

IV.

Now, I already here you protesting: Results don't automatically equal tiers.


Wait, who said anything about tier lists? I never said tier list. You said tier list!

Results are reality, tiers are theory--an expectation of future reality at a given level of play. The problem is that defining that level of play is hard, and almost everyone ends up overshooting.

We like to say that a tier list is exclusively supposed to measure "top-level play", but what exactly is top level play? Is it just Zero?


THE OFFICIAL TOP LEVEL SMASH 4 TIER LIST
Zero Tier: :4diddy::4sheik:
Not-Zero Tier: Everyone Else.


A tier list may be top-level, but even top-level should be a considerable range.

What if we limit our results data to just the top 500 ranked players? That's a really small pool of the millions of players that play Smash, but it turns out that the overwhelming majority of the results in our rankings already come from those players. In fact, I originally intended to run two separate sets of data (all players and top 500 only), but there was no point since the results were the same. (Since it was the same data!)

In other words, the temptation to attribute this list to the mouth-breathing For Glory masses doesn't fly. Smashboards' ranking methodology isn't perfect and the data is often incomplete, but it should be fairly representative for the questions we are asking.

Results indeed aren't the same as tiers, but whenever they are at odds, the burden of explanation always falls on theory rather than reality. Results are never wrong, and can never be truly dismissed.

V.

To anyone who has been around competitive gaming long enough, it shouldn't be a surprise that the reality of which characters are actually winning the most has poor correlation with the echo chamber that is public opinion.

THIS is the worst tier list that has graced my eyes
The moment I saw Cloud in SS, I knew this was a casual list.
Where to even begin? I need a whole thread to explain what is wrong with this tier list.
My shenanigans aside, this is a prime moment to reflect on both how limited the bounds of our own discussion are relative to the broader smash community and how we treat new users who offer us new perspectives. (Even if those new users are just a-hole moderators in thinly-veiled disguise.)

Why did a new user posting this information (albeit with minimal context) yield vitriol, reports, and zero likes? Why did the posts like mine poking fun at a new user get a whole bunch of likes?

Why is it that I can sit here typing all this out in advance, knowing with 100% certainty that this is exactly how it's going to go down?


Thanks for the internet points, suckas!

Yes, we're all cool Internet nerds who are great at video games, and God only knows I will take the prize for smug know-it-all who takes his wit too far. But we have got to cultivate a community that is not merely tolerant, but willing to engage with fresh faces (and the often... unconventional ideas they bring to the table).

"Git gud" is not a viable path to the future of Smash, even in the survival-of-the-fittest jungle that is the CCI thread.

Btw, my lawyers want me to remind everyone that alternate accounts are against the Global Rules of Smashboards and are considered major Terms of Service violations and grounds for banning.

VI.

Anyway, where were we? Ah, right:

Haven't you guys heard? Cloud is the best character in the game.
Please discuss anything you think is out of place!
 

|RK|

Smash Marketer
Moderator
Joined
Jan 6, 2009
Messages
4,033
Location
Maryland
'Bout to play my boy Lucario in Pokken!

On topic... I'm still over here playing Kirby, lol. There's still more I can do as a player, despite the character's (serious) weaknesses.

So an idea for a topic: Where do you see your main's meta going?

Kirby has a poor neutral most of the time and meh disadvantage. But Samus is almost in the same boat, so her players seem to push her great advantage as far as they can.

I expect Kirby to go more in that direction; focus on making sure that whenever he wins neutral, he extends his great advantage as far as possible.

I've also been thinking (and maybe that's because I'm kind of obsessed with them) about getting copy abilities more often. I feel like most other characters focus on their special attributes more than we do. Copy abilities are for the most part treated as cute by commentators, and I don't see them used well often enough. I personally think that they're super-important for making Kirby's poor neutral a little better. Plus, Inhale is true from a sourspot utilt (which itself can come from other combos).

That's (a bit of) my opinion on Kirby; anyone have thoughts about their characters?

EDIT: Or... or Thinkaman's thing. Wow lol
 
Last edited:

C0rvus

Pro Hands Catcher
Joined
Nov 11, 2014
Messages
1,554
Location
East Coast
Well, guess I'll put my money where my mouth is and collect some hard data, to serve as an example.

I.

Let's take a look at the Smashboards tournament ranking results (by character) for events from Feb 1st - Now:



Several interesting things jump out, but let's break it down.

II.

The percentages are the % of players (of that character) who placed at the corresponding levels. In theory, this should be a similar spread for characters of all skill levels, if we assume that that players are themselves automatically filtering for tiers and only playing their best character(s).

In more advanced theory, we'd expect to see a slight tilt for higher-tier characters having higher percentages, merely because the most competitive "spike" mindset players (who win more as a group) will gravitate towards them.

We see important exceptions to this trend:

We all know that :4yoshi: has a top-level problem, but according to the data :4villager: and :4greninja: suffer similar fates in the aggregate smash community. Yes, iStudying and Ranai have made their few wins pretty big ones, but the general trend within this period still stands.


Always just short.

:4rob: and :4myfriends: are disproportionately played by people who perform really well with them. ROB is actually just, really strongly performing period.

Shockingly (to me), :4zss: wins relatively rarely for the pool of players that play her; she's more popular with the broader smash community than we (I?) assumed.

I've long said that feminine characters (including Jiggs), extreme heavyweights, and :4drmario: specifically all have abnormally high character loyalty such that they are played disproportionately by experienced mains only.


But muh wifu!

I've also suggested in private that this has a radical warping effect on win-rates relative to tier strength--and we see that here. All of those characters exhibit abnormally high Top 16 or Top 8 placement rates relative to the number of players using them--ESPECIALLY :4charizard: and :4dedede:, who may be even more dominant at lower level play than we suspected.

Curiously :4wario: is included in this pattern while :4lucina: is not, which is an important lesson about gender identity and assumptions.

III.

Returning to the top of the rankings, we see some surprising results. We can get a general placement score by combining the top 16/8/1 placements, weighted significantly towards the latter. We can see that 5/6ths of the entire cast falls within one standard deviation of the average score, with all the outliers being on the top.

The elephant in the room is that :4cloud: is king, and a whole boatload of people are both playing and winning with :4mario: at all levels of play. Looking back historically, this was no February fluke; Mario has been popular (and unlike Falcon, winning) everywhere for a long time.


Zero might not be worried about them, but this is currently the most typical Grand Finals in Smash 4.

What's striking is just how much stronger performing these two characters were over this period, about an entire standard deviation each above the others. In fact, if you were to turn this into a results list, it might look pretty shocking:

TOP LEVEL VIABLE:
SS: :4cloud:
S: :4mario:
A+: :4diddy::4bayonetta::4sheik:
A-: :4falcon::4corrin:
B+: :rosalina::4rob::4ness:
B-: :4metaknight::4zss::4fox::4luigi:
C+: :4yoshi::4pikachu::4sonic::4myfriends::4ryu:

NOT TOP LEVEL VIABLE:
C-: :4tlink::4marth::4villager::4littlemac::4greninja::4link::4peach::4mewtwo:
D+: :4wario2::4dedede::4kirby::4bowser::4falco::4pit::4darkpit::4bowserjr::4lucario::4feroy::4ganondorf::4dk:
E+: :4gaw::4robinm::4megaman::4jigglypuff::4lucas::4palutena::4shulk::4wiifit::4samus:
E-: :4lucina::4charizard::4drmario::4pacman::4olimar::4duckhunt::4zelda:

Note: I didn't include the Miis, because we (as a community) don't play with them much. (So there isn't enough data to submit for analysis.)

IV.

Now, I already here you protesting: Results don't automatically equal tiers.


Wait, who said anything about tier lists? I never said tier list. You said tier list!

Results are reality, tiers are theory--an expectation of future reality at a given level of play. The problem is that defining that level of play is hard, and almost everyone ends up overshooting.

We like to say that a tier list is exclusively supposed to measure "top-level play", but what exactly is top level play? Is it just Zero?


THE OFFICIAL TOP LEVEL SMASH 4 TIER LIST
Zero Tier: :4diddy::4sheik:
Not-Zero Tier: Everyone Else.


A tier list may be top-level, but even top-level should be a considerable range.

What if we limit our results data to just the top 500 ranked players? That's a really small pool of the millions of players that play Smash, but it turns out that the overwhelming majority of the results in our rankings already come from those players. In fact, I originally intended to run two separate sets of data (all players and top 500 only), but there was no point since the results were the same. (Since it was the same data!)

In other words, the temptation to attribute this list to the mouth-breathing For Glory masses doesn't fly. Smashboards' ranking methodology isn't perfect and the data is often incomplete, but it should be fairly representative for the questions we are asking.

Results indeed aren't the same as tiers, but whenever they are at odds, the burden of explanation always falls on theory rather than reality. Results are never wrong, and can never be truly dismissed.

V.

To anyone who has been around competitive gaming long enough, it shouldn't be a surprise that the reality of which characters are actually winning the most has poor correlation with the echo chamber that is public opinion.







My shenanigans aside, this is a prime moment to reflect on both how limited the bounds of our own discussion are relative to the broader smash community and how we treat new users who offer us new perspectives. (Even if those new users are just a-hole moderators in thinly-veiled disguise.)

Why did a new user posting this information (albeit with minimal context) yield vitriol, reports, and zero likes? Why did the posts like mine poking fun at a new user get a whole bunch of likes?

Why is it that I can sit here typing all this out in advance, knowing with 100% certainty that this is exactly how it's going to go down?


Thanks for the internet points, suckas!

Yes, we're all cool Internet nerds who are great at video games, and God only knows I will take the prize for smug know-it-all who takes his wit too far. But we have got to cultivate a community that is not merely tolerant, but willing to engage with fresh faces (and the often... unconventional ideas they bring to the table).

"Git gud" is not a viable path to the future of Smash, even in the survival-of-the-fittest jungle that is the CCI thread.

Btw, my lawyers want me to remind everyone that alternate accounts are against the Global Rules of Smashboards and are considered major Terms of Service violations and grounds for banning.

VI.

Anyway, where were we? Ah, right:



Please discuss anything you think is out of place!
I think we all just got played hard. Shoutouts to Thinkaman, who never fails to make me feel stupid.
 

Y2Kay

BLACK MAMBA FOREVER
Moderator
Joined
Sep 4, 2015
Messages
3,802
Location
Brooklyn, NY
NNID
Why2Kay
Well, guess I'll put my money where my mouth is and collect some hard data, to serve as an example.

I.

Let's take a look at the Smashboards tournament ranking results (by character) for events from Feb 1st - Now:



Several interesting things jump out, but let's break it down.

II.

The percentages are the % of players (of that character) who placed at the corresponding levels. In theory, this should be a similar spread for characters of all skill levels, if we assume that that players are themselves automatically filtering for tiers and only playing their best character(s).

In more advanced theory, we'd expect to see a slight tilt for higher-tier characters having higher percentages, merely because the most competitive "spike" mindset players (who win more as a group) will gravitate towards them.

We see important exceptions to this trend:

We all know that :4yoshi: has a top-level problem, but according to the data :4villager: and :4greninja: suffer similar fates in the aggregate smash community. Yes, iStudying and Ranai have made their few wins pretty big ones, but the general trend within this period still stands.


Always just short.

:4rob: and :4myfriends: are disproportionately played by people who perform really well with them. ROB is actually just, really strongly performing period.

Shockingly (to me), :4zss: wins relatively rarely for the pool of players that play her; she's more popular with the broader smash community than we (I?) assumed.

I've long said that feminine characters (including Jiggs), extreme heavyweights, and :4drmario: specifically all have abnormally high character loyalty such that they are played disproportionately by experienced mains only.


But muh wifu!

I've also suggested in private that this has a radical warping effect on win-rates relative to tier strength--and we see that here. All of those characters exhibit abnormally high Top 16 or Top 8 placement rates relative to the number of players using them--ESPECIALLY :4charizard: and :4dedede:, who may be even more dominant at lower level play than we suspected.

Curiously :4wario: is included in this pattern while :4lucina: is not, which is an important lesson about gender identity and assumptions.

III.

Returning to the top of the rankings, we see some surprising results. We can get a general placement score by combining the top 16/8/1 placements, weighted significantly towards the latter. We can see that 5/6ths of the entire cast falls within one standard deviation of the average score, with all the outliers being on the top.

The elephant in the room is that :4cloud: is king, and a whole boatload of people are both playing and winning with :4mario: at all levels of play. Looking back historically, this was no February fluke; Mario has been popular (and unlike Falcon, winning) everywhere for a long time.


Zero might not be worried about them, but this is currently the most typical Grand Finals in Smash 4.

What's striking is just how much stronger performing these two characters were over this period, about an entire standard deviation each above the others. In fact, if you were to turn this into a results list, it might look pretty shocking:

TOP LEVEL VIABLE:
SS: :4cloud:
S: :4mario:
A+: :4diddy::4bayonetta::4sheik:
A-: :4falcon::4corrin:
B+: :rosalina::4rob::4ness:
B-: :4metaknight::4zss::4fox::4luigi:
C+: :4yoshi::4pikachu::4sonic::4myfriends::4ryu:

NOT TOP LEVEL VIABLE:
C-: :4tlink::4marth::4villager::4littlemac::4greninja::4link::4peach::4mewtwo:
D+: :4wario2::4dedede::4kirby::4bowser::4falco::4pit::4darkpit::4bowserjr::4lucario::4feroy::4ganondorf::4dk:
E+: :4gaw::4robinm::4megaman::4jigglypuff::4lucas::4palutena::4shulk::4wiifit::4samus:
E-: :4lucina::4charizard::4drmario::4pacman::4olimar::4duckhunt::4zelda:

Note: I didn't include the Miis, because we (as a community) don't play with them much. (So there isn't enough data to submit for analysis.)

IV.

Now, I already here you protesting: Results don't automatically equal tiers.


Wait, who said anything about tier lists? I never said tier list. You said tier list!

Results are reality, tiers are theory--an expectation of future reality at a given level of play. The problem is that defining that level of play is hard, and almost everyone ends up overshooting.

We like to say that a tier list is exclusively supposed to measure "top-level play", but what exactly is top level play? Is it just Zero?


THE OFFICIAL TOP LEVEL SMASH 4 TIER LIST
Zero Tier: :4diddy::4sheik:
Not-Zero Tier: Everyone Else.


A tier list may be top-level, but even top-level should be a considerable range.

What if we limit our results data to just the top 500 ranked players? That's a really small pool of the millions of players that play Smash, but it turns out that the overwhelming majority of the results in our rankings already come from those players. In fact, I originally intended to run two separate sets of data (all players and top 500 only), but there was no point since the results were the same. (Since it was the same data!)

In other words, the temptation to attribute this list to the mouth-breathing For Glory masses doesn't fly. Smashboards' ranking methodology isn't perfect and the data is often incomplete, but it should be fairly representative for the questions we are asking.

Results indeed aren't the same as tiers, but whenever they are at odds, the burden of explanation always falls on theory rather than reality. Results are never wrong, and can never be truly dismissed.

V.

To anyone who has been around competitive gaming long enough, it shouldn't be a surprise that the reality of which characters are actually winning the most has poor correlation with the echo chamber that is public opinion.







My shenanigans aside, this is a prime moment to reflect on both how limited the bounds of our own discussion are relative to the broader smash community and how we treat new users who offer us new perspectives. (Even if those new users are just a-hole moderators in thinly-veiled disguise.)

Why did a new user posting this information (albeit with minimal context) yield vitriol, reports, and zero likes? Why did the posts like mine poking fun at a new user get a whole bunch of likes?

Why is it that I can sit here typing all this out in advance, knowing with 100% certainty that this is exactly how it's going to go down?


Thanks for the internet points, suckas!

Yes, we're all cool Internet nerds who are great at video games, and God only knows I will take the prize for smug know-it-all who takes his wit too far. But we have got to cultivate a community that is not merely tolerant, but willing to engage with fresh faces (and the often... unconventional ideas they bring to the table).

"Git gud" is not a viable path to the future of Smash, even in the survival-of-the-fittest jungle that is the CCI thread.

Btw, my lawyers want me to remind everyone that alternate accounts are against the Global Rules of Smashboards and are considered major Terms of Service violations and grounds for banning.

VI.

Anyway, where were we? Ah, right:



Please discuss anything you think is out of place!

This is literally the best post you've ever made, and you've had some good ones.


I look like a fool now T-T

:150:
 

BunbUn129

Smash Ace
Joined
Oct 20, 2015
Messages
614
Location
Abu Dhabi, UAE
Please discuss anything you think is out of place!
Everything. kappa please forgive me, lord thinkaman

Edit: I think this tells us the thread should be closed...

Edit: to be fair, thinkaman, you can't put the full blame on us, cause we're pretty used to people posting their personal tier lists...
 
Last edited:

deepseadiva

Bodybuilding Magical Girl
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Mar 11, 2008
Messages
8,001
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CO
3DS FC
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This thread just got bopped and there is no recovery possible.
 

Nu~

Smash Dreamer
Joined
Jun 22, 2012
Messages
4,332
Location
U.S., Maryland (Eastern Time, UTC - 5hrs)
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EquinoXYZ
Well, guess I'll put my money where my mouth is and collect some hard data, to serve as an example.

I.

Let's take a look at the Smashboards tournament ranking results (by character) for events from Feb 1st - Now:



Several interesting things jump out, but let's break it down.

II.

The percentages are the % of players (of that character) who placed at the corresponding levels. In theory, this should be a similar spread for characters of all skill levels, if we assume that that players are themselves automatically filtering for tiers and only playing their best character(s).

In more advanced theory, we'd expect to see a slight tilt for higher-tier characters having higher percentages, merely because the most competitive "spike" mindset players (who win more as a group) will gravitate towards them.

We see important exceptions to this trend:

We all know that :4yoshi: has a top-level problem, but according to the data :4villager: and :4greninja: suffer similar fates in the aggregate smash community. Yes, iStudying and Ranai have made their few wins pretty big ones, but the general trend within this period still stands.


Always just short.

:4rob: and :4myfriends: are disproportionately played by people who perform really well with them. ROB is actually just, really strongly performing period.

Shockingly (to me), :4zss: wins relatively rarely for the pool of players that play her; she's more popular with the broader smash community than we (I?) assumed.

I've long said that feminine characters (including Jiggs), extreme heavyweights, and :4drmario: specifically all have abnormally high character loyalty such that they are played disproportionately by experienced mains only.


But muh wifu!

I've also suggested in private that this has a radical warping effect on win-rates relative to tier strength--and we see that here. All of those characters exhibit abnormally high Top 16 or Top 8 placement rates relative to the number of players using them--ESPECIALLY :4charizard: and :4dedede:, who may be even more dominant at lower level play than we suspected.

Curiously :4wario: is included in this pattern while :4lucina: is not, which is an important lesson about gender identity and assumptions.

III.

Returning to the top of the rankings, we see some surprising results. We can get a general placement score by combining the top 16/8/1 placements, weighted significantly towards the latter. We can see that 5/6ths of the entire cast falls within one standard deviation of the average score, with all the outliers being on the top.

The elephant in the room is that :4cloud: is king, and a whole boatload of people are both playing and winning with :4mario: at all levels of play. Looking back historically, this was no February fluke; Mario has been popular (and unlike Falcon, winning) everywhere for a long time.


Zero might not be worried about them, but this is currently the most typical Grand Finals in Smash 4.

What's striking is just how much stronger performing these two characters were over this period, about an entire standard deviation each above the others. In fact, if you were to turn this into a results list, it might look pretty shocking:

TOP LEVEL VIABLE:
SS: :4cloud:
S: :4mario:
A+: :4diddy::4bayonetta::4sheik:
A-: :4falcon::4corrin:
B+: :rosalina::4rob::4ness:
B-: :4metaknight::4zss::4fox::4luigi:
C+: :4yoshi::4pikachu::4sonic::4myfriends::4ryu:

NOT TOP LEVEL VIABLE:
C-: :4tlink::4marth::4villager::4littlemac::4greninja::4link::4peach::4mewtwo:
D+: :4wario2::4dedede::4kirby::4bowser::4falco::4pit::4darkpit::4bowserjr::4lucario::4feroy::4ganondorf::4dk:
E+: :4gaw::4robinm::4megaman::4jigglypuff::4lucas::4palutena::4shulk::4wiifit::4samus:
E-: :4lucina::4charizard::4drmario::4pacman::4olimar::4duckhunt::4zelda:

Note: I didn't include the Miis, because we (as a community) don't play with them much. (So there isn't enough data to submit for analysis.)

IV.

Now, I already here you protesting: Results don't automatically equal tiers.


Wait, who said anything about tier lists? I never said tier list. You said tier list!

Results are reality, tiers are theory--an expectation of future reality at a given level of play. The problem is that defining that level of play is hard, and almost everyone ends up overshooting.

We like to say that a tier list is exclusively supposed to measure "top-level play", but what exactly is top level play? Is it just Zero?


THE OFFICIAL TOP LEVEL SMASH 4 TIER LIST
Zero Tier: :4diddy::4sheik:
Not-Zero Tier: Everyone Else.


A tier list may be top-level, but even top-level should be a considerable range.

What if we limit our results data to just the top 500 ranked players? That's a really small pool of the millions of players that play Smash, but it turns out that the overwhelming majority of the results in our rankings already come from those players. In fact, I originally intended to run two separate sets of data (all players and top 500 only), but there was no point since the results were the same. (Since it was the same data!)

In other words, the temptation to attribute this list to the mouth-breathing For Glory masses doesn't fly. Smashboards' ranking methodology isn't perfect and the data is often incomplete, but it should be fairly representative for the questions we are asking.

Results indeed aren't the same as tiers, but whenever they are at odds, the burden of explanation always falls on theory rather than reality. Results are never wrong, and can never be truly dismissed.

V.

To anyone who has been around competitive gaming long enough, it shouldn't be a surprise that the reality of which characters are actually winning the most has poor correlation with the echo chamber that is public opinion.







My shenanigans aside, this is a prime moment to reflect on both how limited the bounds of our own discussion are relative to the broader smash community and how we treat new users who offer us new perspectives. (Even if those new users are just a-hole moderators in thinly-veiled disguise.)

Why did a new user posting this information (albeit with minimal context) yield vitriol, reports, and zero likes? Why did the posts like mine poking fun at a new user get a whole bunch of likes?

Why is it that I can sit here typing all this out in advance, knowing with 100% certainty that this is exactly how it's going to go down?


Thanks for the internet points, suckas!

Yes, we're all cool Internet nerds who are great at video games, and God only knows I will take the prize for smug know-it-all who takes his wit too far. But we have got to cultivate a community that is not merely tolerant, but willing to engage with fresh faces (and the often... unconventional ideas they bring to the table).

"Git gud" is not a viable path to the future of Smash, even in the survival-of-the-fittest jungle that is the CCI thread.

Btw, my lawyers want me to remind everyone that alternate accounts are against the Global Rules of Smashboards and are considered major Terms of Service violations and grounds for banning.

VI.

Anyway, where were we? Ah, right:



Please discuss anything you think is out of place!
I feel far more amazed at the ingenuity of this post and the plan that precursored it, than I am shameful for liking that test post.

Never has a post here given me more joy ^^

Too much truth.
 
Last edited:

Nobie

Smash Champion
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Messages
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SDShamshel
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Well, guess I'll put my money where my mouth is and collect some hard data, to serve as an example.

Yes, we're all cool Internet nerds who are great at video games, and God only knows I will take the prize for smug know-it-all who takes his wit too far. But we have got to cultivate a community that is not merely tolerant, but willing to engage with fresh faces (and the often... unconventional ideas they bring to the table).
I think the thing that ultimately set people off against "Mister Namakniht" (which in retrospect is so obvious a name it hurts) is not the tier list itself so much as the words surrounding it, namely the idea that a guy discussed it with his friends and made a tier list as a result.

Like, someone could come up with the most exquisite tier list possible, accurate to a tee. But if they then said, "I based these tiers off of my FOR GLORY EXPERIENCE," people would dogpile that poor poster (or disguised Moderator) five ways from Sunday.
 
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williamsga555

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Sep 8, 2015
Messages
245
Location
Japan
The bit about D3 being really good at low-levels is very accurate.

The King thrives on matchup inexperience. If you face a decent D3 expecting a free win by going aggro and out-buttoning him, you're going to have an awful time (unless you're Fox who really can just stay on D3 forever but I digress).

I really need to study Big D and El_Bardo more. How those guys keep getting the placements they're getting is really something (also keep on the lookout for Andy from Mexico, dude's also super good).
 

Y2Kay

BLACK MAMBA FOREVER
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Messages
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Why2Kay
People tend to make lists based on personal anecdotes, gut instincts, and circular echo chamber reasoning rather than hard data.

I think this is problematic for our discussion and would like to do something to address it.
Hey guys, I wanted to share a list my friends and I made based on our experience with the game. (Characters are in order within each group, best to worst)

TOP LEVEL VIABLE:
SS: :4cloud:
S: :4mario:
A+: :4diddy::4bayonetta::4sheik:
A-: :4falcon::4corrin:
B+: :rosalina::4rob::4ness:
B-: :4metaknight::4zss::4fox::4luigi:
C+: :4yoshi::4pikachu::4sonic::4myfriends::4ryu:

NOT TOP LEVEL VIABLE:
C-: :4tlink::4marth::4villager::4littlemac::4greninja::4link::4peach::4mewtwo:
D+: :4wario2::4dedede::4kirby::4bowser::4falco::4pit::4darkpit::4bowserjr::4lucario::4feroy::4ganondorf::4dk:
E+: :4gaw::4robinm::4megaman::4jigglypuff::4lucas::4palutena::4shulk::4wiifit::4samus:
E-: :4lucina::4charizard::4drmario::4pacman::4olimar::4duckhunt::4zelda:

Note: I didn't include the Miis, because we don't play with them much.

Please discuss anything you think is out of place!
You are a slick one Thinkaman Thinkaman

You completely set everyone up

My brain hurts from the trickery

I don't what's real anymore

:150:
 

Flux0r

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Joined
Mar 17, 2014
Messages
128
Location
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Flux0r
Well, guess I'll put my money where my mouth is and collect some hard data, to serve as an example.

I.

Let's take a look at the Smashboards tournament ranking results (by character) for events from Feb 1st - Now:



Several interesting things jump out, but let's break it down.

II.

The percentages are the % of players (of that character) who placed at the corresponding levels. In theory, this should be a similar spread for characters of all skill levels, if we assume that that players are themselves automatically filtering for tiers and only playing their best character(s).

In more advanced theory, we'd expect to see a slight tilt for higher-tier characters having higher percentages, merely because the most competitive "spike" mindset players (who win more as a group) will gravitate towards them.

We see important exceptions to this trend:

We all know that :4yoshi: has a top-level problem, but according to the data :4villager: and :4greninja: suffer similar fates in the aggregate smash community. Yes, iStudying and Ranai have made their few wins pretty big ones, but the general trend within this period still stands.


Always just short.

:4rob: and :4myfriends: are disproportionately played by people who perform really well with them. ROB is actually just, really strongly performing period.

Shockingly (to me), :4zss: wins relatively rarely for the pool of players that play her; she's more popular with the broader smash community than we (I?) assumed.

I've long said that feminine characters (including Jiggs), extreme heavyweights, and :4drmario: specifically all have abnormally high character loyalty such that they are played disproportionately by experienced mains only.


But muh wifu!

I've also suggested in private that this has a radical warping effect on win-rates relative to tier strength--and we see that here. All of those characters exhibit abnormally high Top 16 or Top 8 placement rates relative to the number of players using them--ESPECIALLY :4charizard: and :4dedede:, who may be even more dominant at lower level play than we suspected.

Curiously :4wario: is included in this pattern while :4lucina: is not, which is an important lesson about gender identity and assumptions.

III.

Returning to the top of the rankings, we see some surprising results. We can get a general placement score by combining the top 16/8/1 placements, weighted significantly towards the latter. We can see that 5/6ths of the entire cast falls within one standard deviation of the average score, with all the outliers being on the top.

The elephant in the room is that :4cloud: is king, and a whole boatload of people are both playing and winning with :4mario: at all levels of play. Looking back historically, this was no February fluke; Mario has been popular (and unlike Falcon, winning) everywhere for a long time.


Zero might not be worried about them, but this is currently the most typical Grand Finals in Smash 4.

What's striking is just how much stronger performing these two characters were over this period, about an entire standard deviation each above the others. In fact, if you were to turn this into a results list, it might look pretty shocking:

TOP LEVEL VIABLE:
SS: :4cloud:
S: :4mario:
A+: :4diddy::4bayonetta::4sheik:
A-: :4falcon::4corrin:
B+: :rosalina::4rob::4ness:
B-: :4metaknight::4zss::4fox::4luigi:
C+: :4yoshi::4pikachu::4sonic::4myfriends::4ryu:

NOT TOP LEVEL VIABLE:
C-: :4tlink::4marth::4villager::4littlemac::4greninja::4link::4peach::4mewtwo:
D+: :4wario2::4dedede::4kirby::4bowser::4falco::4pit::4darkpit::4bowserjr::4lucario::4feroy::4ganondorf::4dk:
E+: :4gaw::4robinm::4megaman::4jigglypuff::4lucas::4palutena::4shulk::4wiifit::4samus:
E-: :4lucina::4charizard::4drmario::4pacman::4olimar::4duckhunt::4zelda:

Note: I didn't include the Miis, because we (as a community) don't play with them much. (So there isn't enough data to submit for analysis.)

IV.

Now, I already here you protesting: Results don't automatically equal tiers.


Wait, who said anything about tier lists? I never said tier list. You said tier list!

Results are reality, tiers are theory--an expectation of future reality at a given level of play. The problem is that defining that level of play is hard, and almost everyone ends up overshooting.

We like to say that a tier list is exclusively supposed to measure "top-level play", but what exactly is top level play? Is it just Zero?


THE OFFICIAL TOP LEVEL SMASH 4 TIER LIST
Zero Tier: :4diddy::4sheik:
Not-Zero Tier: Everyone Else.


A tier list may be top-level, but even top-level should be a considerable range.

What if we limit our results data to just the top 500 ranked players? That's a really small pool of the millions of players that play Smash, but it turns out that the overwhelming majority of the results in our rankings already come from those players. In fact, I originally intended to run two separate sets of data (all players and top 500 only), but there was no point since the results were the same. (Since it was the same data!)

In other words, the temptation to attribute this list to the mouth-breathing For Glory masses doesn't fly. Smashboards' ranking methodology isn't perfect and the data is often incomplete, but it should be fairly representative for the questions we are asking.

Results indeed aren't the same as tiers, but whenever they are at odds, the burden of explanation always falls on theory rather than reality. Results are never wrong, and can never be truly dismissed.

V.

To anyone who has been around competitive gaming long enough, it shouldn't be a surprise that the reality of which characters are actually winning the most has poor correlation with the echo chamber that is public opinion.







My shenanigans aside, this is a prime moment to reflect on both how limited the bounds of our own discussion are relative to the broader smash community and how we treat new users who offer us new perspectives. (Even if those new users are just a-hole moderators in thinly-veiled disguise.)

Why did a new user posting this information (albeit with minimal context) yield vitriol, reports, and zero likes? Why did the posts like mine poking fun at a new user get a whole bunch of likes?

Why is it that I can sit here typing all this out in advance, knowing with 100% certainty that this is exactly how it's going to go down?


Thanks for the internet points, suckas!

Yes, we're all cool Internet nerds who are great at video games, and God only knows I will take the prize for smug know-it-all who takes his wit too far. But we have got to cultivate a community that is not merely tolerant, but willing to engage with fresh faces (and the often... unconventional ideas they bring to the table).

"Git gud" is not a viable path to the future of Smash, even in the survival-of-the-fittest jungle that is the CCI thread.

Btw, my lawyers want me to remind everyone that alternate accounts are against the Global Rules of Smashboards and are considered major Terms of Service violations and grounds for banning.

VI.

Anyway, where were we? Ah, right:



Please discuss anything you think is out of place!
Well played Thinkaman, well played. You made a fool out of this whole thread, including me.

It's still interesting how well Cloud and Mario have been performing lately, are these two characters so remarkably solid that they can achieve good results at every skill level?
 
Last edited:

ItsRainingGravy

Smash Ace
Joined
Jan 2, 2013
Messages
763
Location
Alabama
Switch FC
SW-5960-2538-9300
Kamui overrated? I see them reaching :4ness::4villager: tier but not surpassing :4pikachu:or :4mario:.
Honestly, Corrin is pretty strong. I play Ness, Mario, and Corrin. And of the three, I feel as though that Corrin overall has more potential than both of them competitively.

Despite mobility issues, Corrin has a surprisingly good Neutral. Sure, you have the obvious lance moves, but even ignoring that, Corrin has an incredibly easy time converting a hit into a string that can rack up more damage. Nair, Fair, and Dtilt (starting at mid percents) in particular practically guarantee free followups at a very wide range of percents. Making Corrin's ability to rack up damage relatively easy. Not to mention, because of the range that these moves have, it leaves Corrin in a relatively safe position to throw them out whenever they want to. They have the second fastest hitting Fair of the swordsmen at frame 7, losing only to Marth/Lucina (frame 6). But this is fine since Nair also hits on frame 6. Which is really good since both are long ranged move that can be converted into even more damage practically whenever you want to. And overall, Corrin has low landing lag on everything besides Dair. And for reading rolls, wakeup options, and ledge options, DFS is a very powerful punish that can easily end the stock at higher percents. It's a tool that shouldn't be relied on too much, but it should definitely not be counted out either. Even if you don't finish the opponent off, you'll deal a very solid 24% damage, and send the opponent off of the stage.

However, not everything is great for Corrin either. Corrin is a very prediction-heavy character, especially in regards to finishing the opponent off. They have poor horizontal edgeguarding options besides Bair, and even that only hits on frame 13. Tilts never kill, and you have to be precise with Fsmash and Dsmash to get the most out of them (though the charge hitbox of Fsmash certainly helps in interesting ways). Counter Surge is very powerful, but like with every counter, is highly punishable if you miss with it. As mentioned earlier, DFS shouldn't be relied on too often, as it too can be punished quite easily if used at an improper time. Side B helps these KOing issues to a degree, but because of this, it therefore can become a predictable (although still efficient) option. If you remove the tipper hit from the equation though, Side B as a tool is weaker overall in the air as opposed to the ground, which limits its usage a little bit. Uthrow and Dthrow are solid for late kills, but otherwise, Corrin can't really get much reward off of his throws otherwise. And lastly, their recovery can be quite predictable, as well.

Still, in contrast to Mario, Corrin is likely to have less weaknesses against more of the top tier characters by comparison. They actually have a lot of the same weaknesses and strengths. They both have good combos, they both struggle at KOing, they both rely on their aerials in particular, they both have a hard time edgeguaring the opponent, they both have powerful yet vastly different special moves, and they both have a hard time recovering low in particular. There are numerous differeces that set them apart though. Mario has a more useful projectile for the Neutral overall, Corrin has a Side B that can convert into easy damage and sometimes kills, Mario has much safer frame data overall, Corrin obviously has much more range, Mario has more mobility both on the ground and in the air, Corrin has an easier time racking up damage off of hit confirms, Mario has a combo throw and a good Bthrow, Corrin has good killthrows (especially when used on a platform), and etc.

However, there is one key difference that sets the two apart: The ability to KO.

Mario relies on Usmash for most of his KOs competitively. It hits on frame 9, his head is invincible, it hits behind him first, and it kills decently well. And that's fine and dandy and all, but it also becomes super predictable as a result. There have been many matches and videos that showcase this. But Corrin doesn't exactly have this problem. Corrin, despite being a very prediction-based character, has multiple options that can finish his opponent off as opposed to Mario. Side B, Fsmash, Dsmash, Uair, Bair, Neutral B, Down B, Uthrow/Dthrow, and even Usmash if you are super lucky (I still don't like it tho). Most all of these moves require some sort of prediction, and are quite punishable if they miss, but they give Corrin variety in how he can finish his opponents off. By this extent, this gives Corrin far more leeway to be less predictable against his opponents at higher percents. Most of these options don't quite have the "oomph" that Mario's Usmash does, but Corrin can play around this due to not really having to rely on any single one of those options. In my mind, this is just enough of an edge that Corrin has over Mario that should be considered.

And Corrin's strengths are further backed up by his ability to net results very early after his release.

I expect Corrin to fall over time, but I feel as though the character has a very solid niche in the current metagame. I feel as though Mario will still do better in certain high/top tier matchups by comparison, but Corrin might do better in other matchups where Mario struggles. So I think that Zero's views of the character shouldn't immediately be dismissed, since I feel as though Corrin has a solid enough niche for him to feel that way.
 
Last edited:

BunbUn129

Smash Ace
Joined
Oct 20, 2015
Messages
614
Location
Abu Dhabi, UAE
Well played Thinkaman, well played. You made a fool out of this whole thread, including me.

It's still interesting how well Cloud and Mario have been performing lately, are these two characters so remarkably solid that they can achieve good results at every skill level?
Shhhhh...don't fuel the fires of the "Cloud is OP" circlejerkers...
 

TTTTTsd

Gordeau Main Paint Drinker
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Sep 29, 2013
Messages
3,999
Location
Canada, where it's really cold
NNID
InverseTangent
Bravo Thinkaman Thinkaman bravo! Though I'd like to note that your fake account, while using the worst characters possible, was wrong about Smash 64! At this point in time it's actually Luigi who's the worst in that game (very important for the next time you do this...wait...)

Moving on, I had no idea Cloud's results were as such, and that's very interesting! I figured Mario would be up there because at all levels Mario is very consistent, same with Cloud. Bayonetta doing that well isn't super surprising, she's very good and of course the new character smell is very appealing especially when the new character is really really good.

Aslo Flux0r Flux0r that's always been Mario's thing (and Cloud's). They're characters who are very beginner friendly and are, to put it bluntly, very straightforward. Mario will be Mario and do Mario things and while this gets weaker at the top level, it is actually STRONGER the lower you go down because of gameplay things (less refined opponents, more leeway for mistakes, etc.). Cloud does the same thing except he's inherently stronger, but the same idea applies. He doesn't seem to get much weaker in Top Level compared to say, Mario, but he does. Granted, weaker doesn't mean unviable or bad, but it's just a trend I've noticed.
 
Last edited:

Thinkaman

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Thinkaman
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Well, the point is that Mario doesn't drop off until the tippy-top of nationals, and he has the player base and results to prove it.

I do agree that Mario is consistently strong at almost all levels of play.
 

Y2Kay

BLACK MAMBA FOREVER
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Why2Kay
Well, the point is that Mario doesn't drop off until the tippy-top of nationals, and he has the player base and results to prove it.

I do agree that Mario is consistently strong at almost all levels of play.
I have a question about your post. Are you trying to argue that the way we think of tier lists is wrong?

:150:
 

HoSmash4

Smash Ace
Joined
Jun 24, 2015
Messages
688
Truth is the majority of us haven't placed top 16 at majors (I almost did) :( we're all scrubs.

I post my thoughts regardless of how bad or good they might be because people can challenge me, and if they do I might learn something from it! After all I want to improve as much as I can from smash :) having 30 likes doesn't mean your post is better than a post with 0 likes, it just means your post is prettier or more people agree.
 
Last edited:

Das Koopa

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Well, guess I'll put my money where my mouth is and collect some hard data, to serve as an example.

I.

Let's take a look at the Smashboards tournament ranking results (by character) for events from Feb 1st - Now:



Several interesting things jump out, but let's break it down.

II.

The percentages are the % of players (of that character) who placed at the corresponding levels. In theory, this should be a similar spread for characters of all skill levels, if we assume that that players are themselves automatically filtering for tiers and only playing their best character(s).

In more advanced theory, we'd expect to see a slight tilt for higher-tier characters having higher percentages, merely because the most competitive "spike" mindset players (who win more as a group) will gravitate towards them.

We see important exceptions to this trend:

We all know that :4yoshi: has a top-level problem, but according to the data :4villager: and :4greninja: suffer similar fates in the aggregate smash community. Yes, iStudying and Ranai have made their few wins pretty big ones, but the general trend within this period still stands.


Always just short.

:4rob: and :4myfriends: are disproportionately played by people who perform really well with them. ROB is actually just, really strongly performing period.

Shockingly (to me), :4zss: wins relatively rarely for the pool of players that play her; she's more popular with the broader smash community than we (I?) assumed.

I've long said that feminine characters (including Jiggs), extreme heavyweights, and :4drmario: specifically all have abnormally high character loyalty such that they are played disproportionately by experienced mains only.


But muh wifu!

I've also suggested in private that this has a radical warping effect on win-rates relative to tier strength--and we see that here. All of those characters exhibit abnormally high Top 16 or Top 8 placement rates relative to the number of players using them--ESPECIALLY :4charizard: and :4dedede:, who may be even more dominant at lower level play than we suspected.

Curiously :4wario: is included in this pattern while :4lucina: is not, which is an important lesson about gender identity and assumptions.

III.

Returning to the top of the rankings, we see some surprising results. We can get a general placement score by combining the top 16/8/1 placements, weighted significantly towards the latter. We can see that 5/6ths of the entire cast falls within one standard deviation of the average score, with all the outliers being on the top.

The elephant in the room is that :4cloud: is king, and a whole boatload of people are both playing and winning with :4mario: at all levels of play. Looking back historically, this was no February fluke; Mario has been popular (and unlike Falcon, winning) everywhere for a long time.


Zero might not be worried about them, but this is currently the most typical Grand Finals in Smash 4.

What's striking is just how much stronger performing these two characters were over this period, about an entire standard deviation each above the others. In fact, if you were to turn this into a results list, it might look pretty shocking:

TOP LEVEL VIABLE:
SS: :4cloud:
S: :4mario:
A+: :4diddy::4bayonetta::4sheik:
A-: :4falcon::4corrin:
B+: :rosalina::4rob::4ness:
B-: :4metaknight::4zss::4fox::4luigi:
C+: :4yoshi::4pikachu::4sonic::4myfriends::4ryu:

NOT TOP LEVEL VIABLE:
C-: :4tlink::4marth::4villager::4littlemac::4greninja::4link::4peach::4mewtwo:
D+: :4wario2::4dedede::4kirby::4bowser::4falco::4pit::4darkpit::4bowserjr::4lucario::4feroy::4ganondorf::4dk:
E+: :4gaw::4robinm::4megaman::4jigglypuff::4lucas::4palutena::4shulk::4wiifit::4samus:
E-: :4lucina::4charizard::4drmario::4pacman::4olimar::4duckhunt::4zelda:

Note: I didn't include the Miis, because we (as a community) don't play with them much. (So there isn't enough data to submit for analysis.)

IV.

Now, I already here you protesting: Results don't automatically equal tiers.


Wait, who said anything about tier lists? I never said tier list. You said tier list!

Results are reality, tiers are theory--an expectation of future reality at a given level of play. The problem is that defining that level of play is hard, and almost everyone ends up overshooting.

We like to say that a tier list is exclusively supposed to measure "top-level play", but what exactly is top level play? Is it just Zero?


THE OFFICIAL TOP LEVEL SMASH 4 TIER LIST
Zero Tier: :4diddy::4sheik:
Not-Zero Tier: Everyone Else.


A tier list may be top-level, but even top-level should be a considerable range.

What if we limit our results data to just the top 500 ranked players? That's a really small pool of the millions of players that play Smash, but it turns out that the overwhelming majority of the results in our rankings already come from those players. In fact, I originally intended to run two separate sets of data (all players and top 500 only), but there was no point since the results were the same. (Since it was the same data!)

In other words, the temptation to attribute this list to the mouth-breathing For Glory masses doesn't fly. Smashboards' ranking methodology isn't perfect and the data is often incomplete, but it should be fairly representative for the questions we are asking.

Results indeed aren't the same as tiers, but whenever they are at odds, the burden of explanation always falls on theory rather than reality. Results are never wrong, and can never be truly dismissed.

V.

To anyone who has been around competitive gaming long enough, it shouldn't be a surprise that the reality of which characters are actually winning the most has poor correlation with the echo chamber that is public opinion.







My shenanigans aside, this is a prime moment to reflect on both how limited the bounds of our own discussion are relative to the broader smash community and how we treat new users who offer us new perspectives. (Even if those new users are just a-hole moderators in thinly-veiled disguise.)

Why did a new user posting this information (albeit with minimal context) yield vitriol, reports, and zero likes? Why did the posts like mine poking fun at a new user get a whole bunch of likes?

Why is it that I can sit here typing all this out in advance, knowing with 100% certainty that this is exactly how it's going to go down?


Thanks for the internet points, suckas!

Yes, we're all cool Internet nerds who are great at video games, and God only knows I will take the prize for smug know-it-all who takes his wit too far. But we have got to cultivate a community that is not merely tolerant, but willing to engage with fresh faces (and the often... unconventional ideas they bring to the table).

"Git gud" is not a viable path to the future of Smash, even in the survival-of-the-fittest jungle that is the CCI thread.

Btw, my lawyers want me to remind everyone that alternate accounts are against the Global Rules of Smashboards and are considered major Terms of Service violations and grounds for banning.

VI.

Anyway, where were we? Ah, right:



Please discuss anything you think is out of place!
Way to never tell us that you're Kojima, bruh.
 

wedl!!

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I kinda knew it was a ruse. I thought "wow, this configuration of characters is far too specific to not be taken from somewhere else". Like, I don't think anyone on For Glory/a low level player would put Mario at #2 in a tier of his own. I just played along with everyone else because it was funny.

Thinkaman's reply gave it away. I'm far more perceptive than I make myself out to be, I guess. Good work on his part regardless.

Re: meta development;

I play the DLC gods so I have almost nowhere to go but up, I guess.

The point about Kirby sort of parallels how Ryu is developing actually, with less emphasis on neutral than the World Warrior. (also, Ryu is actually good). From what I can see most Ryus are focusing on optimal combos and developing how Focus Attack is used. Ryu's disadvantage is good but there's not much to develop there. His neutral is sorta figured out (play Street Fighter, basically) but zoning will always be a problem (meh mobility, fireballs not being that amazing) and there aren't many ways for him to overcome it. Sorta like Kirby but better, although that statement is fairly misleading because the two play pretty differently.

Cloud and Bayonetta's futures have been discussed here to death so I'm not going to bother mentioning them.

I haven't really been focusing Ryu's meta (or Smash 4 in general) all that much recently so take what I say with a grain of salt.
 
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Thinkaman

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I have a question about your post. Are you trying to argue that the way we think of tier lists is wrong?
No, there's a place for theory. I was just preemptively addressing the (legitimate) point that results != tiers.

Yeah, results are just results, but results are results.
 

Reapers

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Really interesting to see R.O.B. doing that well. I'm curious, what are people thoughts on him now? He kind of fell off the radar from here for a while it seems.
 

NairWizard

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I realized it was Thinkaman because little Mac was C, while Zelda was dead last, which was a very Thinkaman viewpoint and made me consider the username.

Beautiful post, but I think people dismissed your alt because there was no substance. This thread is according to the second post the most strictly moderated on smashboards, and doesn't tolerate analysis less tier lists being posted. I don't think any hostility toward newcomers was intended from those who participated,though perhaps I'm making some assumptions.
 

Zelder

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Thinkaman Thinkaman feelin' himself so hard right now he about to get arrested for public indecency, lol.

edit: to paint the barest fig leaf of content over this post, I don't think Corrin will end up in top tier. I think they're good, but I also feel like they have much more pronounced weaknesses than Bayo/Cloud/the rest of the commonly perceived top tier gang.
 
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