To Shai: It's hard to L-Cancel a double sheild. Even so, Fox can't really follow up after a shine (no grab, no waveshine), so you're looking at like 40% for Fox, a stock for IC's, and that's assuming that the Fox is skilled enough to do something if you shield the shine. You can grab the Fox if he jumps too slowly or if Nana absorbs the impact of the shine with her shield.
Assuming the Fox is skilled enough to L-cancel and press down B? Wow, I never thought basic techs were indicative of high level skill. Every Fox player I know can L-cancel and shine to avoid grabs. And what are you talking about saying the Fox can't follow up? He can literally chase down Nana before the stun frames are finished, and on most stages she goes so far that she's already off the edge or near it. Fox can gimp Nana from a single shine easily. This is a substantial risk when trying to shield grab a Fox.
Let's look at the best case scenario for ICs here. The Fox is at 20% damage, ICs at 0. So the Fox comes in with a drill kick. These are the scenarios likely to happen--
1) ICs shield and grab. The Fox L-cancels into a shine. This is by far the most likely result, at least in my experience. If Nana and Popo fly in the same direction, you have a good chance of saving Nana. If not, then Nana will most likely be gimped. Let's say it's 50/50 either way, which it most likely is not, since a good Fox would try to shine to separate them.
2) ICs shield and attempt a delayed grab. Again, if the Fox is good, he will jump out of the shine before the shield-stun is even over. No grab is possible. The Fox then drill kicks again, or runs away and does something else.
3) The drill kick hits and Fox follows up with a shine, leading to a possible Nana kill or other combo.
4) The Fox misses his L-cancel or waits too long to shine or jump cancel his failed shine. He gets grabbed. Let's say the ICs player is good and can start a wobble 90% of the time from this situatoin. He also can finish it 90% of the time. So this is an 81% kill rate from a missed L-cancel.
Sounds extreme, right? But I don't think the Fox is that likely to miss the L-cancel. Maybe 10 - 15% of the time you can get a grab. This means Fox will die approximately 10% of the time when attempting a drill kick, if my estimates are anywhere close to accurate, which they may not be. If they are, then 90% of the time the Fox should either be able to start some kind of combo on ICs, gimp Nana, or run away. I think he has little reason to run away and most of the time would continue pillaring ICs shield given outcome 2.
And don't forget that a grab on Fox at 20%, followed up with a couple standard chain grabs, which noone wants to ban, will lead to death a large portion of the time anyway, depending on location on the stage. At best wobbling seems to slightly tilt the favor of this matchup for ICs.
So why is this a problem?
Forgive me if I'm wrong, but here's the argument as I see it:
Me: Wobbling is easy, therefore cheap and imbalanced. Kill it.
Everyone else: Wobbling is hard, therefore not cheap or (overly) imbalanced. Let it live.
I'd say we've got a stalemate, since you can't prove either point.
I'm not saying wobbling is difficult or balanced. I'm saying it's not so cheap or game breaking as to be banworthy. "Cheap" is a scrub's argument and should not come under consideration.
You're right. We can't _prove_ anything just theorizing about it. But we can learn a great deal just observing how wobbling actually effects tournaments. Compare how top Ice Climbers who wobble are performing compared to how they did in the past. I haven't noticed them placing any better at all. Have you?