Official Viability Ratings v2 | Competitive Impressions

[Shaya]

It seems like Megaman has really fallen off with all his mains quieting down/resigning from tournaments...
He's one of those characters who gets a few good options with customs that didn't really materialize.

Pacman I feel is ambiguous but most agree he isn't bottom (because of abadango) but there are several more "common" characters doing understandably well towards the top.
Lucas just arrived and probably got the least hype out of the three inclusions, lol.
Duck Hunt has fantastic results but every main of them telling us their character is awful (and many have changed characters: MVD and Fow don't really play them anymore). And those results are becoming more distant.
Shulk could suck, but I think enough top players doing well with him/seeing his potential in various smidgens keeps him out of their minds on lower characters.
Bowser Jr is seen as a very hard character with only 1 hero with extremely respectable results. In this case people feel Tweek is Bowser Jr, hence his results are truly showing Bowser Jr's power level (which isn't a bottom 10 character). People feel similar about Rosalina and Dabuz, but funnily not the exact same about Pikachu and ESAM.

Bowser could be argued to have a much more notable "Shulk" incident with pre-release stuff and early 3ds.
Falco recently got buffed and everyone seems to feel he isn't "crap" anymore.

 

[Spinosaurus]

It's kinda hard to main 3 characters and not have all MUs covered unless you really mess up in your choices.

Sheik seems like trouble for all three of them though, but well, Sheik.

Mario does fairly well against Sheik actually. But honestly Wario/Mario alone pretty much covers near everything, except maybe Marth. (But I don't know how Mario fares on that one.)

 

[Shaya]

I would feel confident in saying Ally's Marth would beat any Mario main, if that means anything.

 

[NairWizard]

I would feel confident in saying Ally's Marth would beat any Mario main, if that means anything.

Including himself?

 

[Shaya]

Including himself?

Probably not.
I don't know, maybe.

I'd say ideally Mario would play like Wario would against Marth in Brawl... with the help of fireballs and a lot safer kill moves to throw out.
I don't know if Marth is good enough to handle that at the moment. It could become very hard for a Mario if they fall behind I guess?

I think with customs it's probably a bonafide marth advantage due to grab release crescent slash? So yeah, Mario would probably beat Marth in the Ally vs Ally match up.

 

[bc1910]

Greninja's biggest problem is top japanese players overreacting to his nerfs and dropping him instantly (mostly for Sheik), causing his metagame to stale. This lead to a domino effect where everyone assumed he got trashed because everyone dropped him, when this isn't the case. I still maintain that shurikens were overnerfed but Greninja can survive without everything else. There are misconceptions about what he used to be capable of and what was actually nerfed, too.

You clearly never played with/against release 3ds greninja. Definite top 5 character at worst.
Up smash comboed into itself at low %s and killed under 100%, up aerial kill around the same %, shuriken were basically lagless. Hydro Pump also had a rage inducing windbox(for some people although I personally never had an issue with it.).

This is basically what I mean. Up Smash did not combo into itself, apparently people never learned how to jump out of combos until after 1.0.4. You could also airdodge though some characters would land and get frame trapped into jab. Its kill power on the sweetspot has never been nerfed. Uair kills at the same percents on Wii U as it did on 3DS (or a touch later) because of the smaller blastzones, same goes for Fair (prepatch 3DS Fair gets a red lightning kill on Mario from the spawn position in Training at 124%, it kills at 128% from there on Wii U). Hydro Pump is the same, the only real difference is that low edgeguards are harder because people can snap to the ledge more easily despite being hit by it.

Anyway, Hydro Pump also had that broken/jank factor at release which people usually screamed "top tier" upon seeing, so that inflated his position (you could always hug the stage or recover below the stage against Greninja and not get wrecked by Hydro Pump). We don't really know how viable Greninja is at high level, we have one top player using Greninja who gets pretty average results but honestly considering how amazing aMSa is at Melee I think he focuses more on that + has to split his time between games, unlike say Tweek who does really well with Jr. and can focus on him all the time. Once good players start coming back to Greninja (which I think will take a long time to happen unless he gets buffed) we should see better results.

To be honest though, I usually disregard any tier list that puts Greninja or other similarly good characters (Pac-Man, Marth, Link) in the low tiers because it's clear that person has no idea how good characters are outside the scope of their mains. Which isn't really their fault, just a typical flaw of tier lists made by one person.

EDIT: Oh, and it doesn't help that of the japanese players who stuck with Greninja, they tend to just find footstool combos and post combo videos and the like. All that stuff is alright, but footstool stuff beyond low% Nairs tends to be DI-able and it's hard to start those combos anyway. We're not getting many useful setups, frame traps or guides like "how to deal with Sheik" etc. Stuff that matters more at high level and could advance his results.

It's sad saying goodbye to the old thread.

I'll hopefully be attending a tournament over here in the UK soon, if that happens and I do well enough and remember everything that I used to know (I'm funny), maybe I'll consider putting forward my name for this - but it might just be better to wait until I've rejoined a scene I can play with more commonly than 'a few times'.

What tournament is this? Where is it?

 

[TriTails]

Going off of this, I don't understand why some people main two characters + Sheik.

Just main Sheik in that case lol. You can learn all the matchups, it's not like she loses any.

Because.

C.H.A.L.L.E.N.G.E.

Besides, it'd be a waste to disregard my Luigi and Captain Falcon skills after practicing them for quite a while now (Falcon not so much, but I'm a Luigi main since day 1). If there's anything I'd want the last, it'd be the spoiling of safe F-air on shield.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Stuff worth talking about in the aftermath of Evo and CEO [and even Apex 15 to some extent]:

* Diddy Kong soft-countering Sheik
* Luigi and Falcon not being able to back up their local results on a national level
* Customs having only a minor impact on the ~top 12 results
* The increasingly obvious gap in national level results between Sheik, ZSS and Rosalina on the one hand and the rest of the cast on the other hand

 

[bc1910]

Stuff worth talking about in the aftermath of Evo and CEO [and even Apex 15 to some extent]:

* Diddy Kong soft-countering Sheik
* Luigi and Falcon not being able to back up their local results on a national level
* Customs having only a minor impact on the ~top 12 results
* The increasingly obvious gap in national level results between Sheik, ZSS and Rosalina on the one hand and the rest of the cast on the other hand

Isn't Diddy still in the same group as Sheik, ZSS and Rosalina?

 

[TriTails]

* Luigi and Falcon not being able to back up their local results on a national level

*Waits until perfect pivoting become a thing*

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Isn't Diddy still in the same group as Sheik, ZSS and Rosalina?

I don't think so. I see him more on par with Fox right now, who despite placing well consistently doesn't reach top 4 placings going solo.

 

[Yoh1]

Another off-topic question but what do people consider camping? Do they mean playing defensively? Cause I always thought camping was sitting in one spot. Also where do you guys think lucas will end up as time goes on?

 

[bc1910]

I don't think so. I see him more on par with Fox right now, who despite placing well consistently doesn't reach top 4 placings going solo.

Oh, I see what you mean. Yeah, agreed, as a solo main Diddy hasn't made as much of a splash as he did pre-Mewtwo. Even ZeRo is backing him up with Sheik now.

 

[A_Kae]

Another off-topic question but what do people consider camping? Do they mean playing defensively? Cause I always thought camping was sitting in one spot. Also where do you guys think lucas will end up as time goes on?

Defensive play has never meant camping to me. Defensive has always meant a more passive or reactive style to me.

To me, camping is staying in one spot, (as in, the general stage position, not literally standing still) and typically tossing out long ranged attacks, though that's not required.

The point of camping is to force an approach. Approaching put you at a disadvantage, so it's in your best interests not to. You don't need projectiles to camp. As long as you have some way of forcing the opponent to approach you, you can camp well.

Lucas doesn't seem to be a particularly good character. Mid tier or so. But I don't have him myself, or know anyone who does, so I'm not really sure.

 

[Smog Frog]

i think ,, are only making a gap because their players are a noticeable amount ahead of the best ,,,,main(s). while i DO agree that are the 3 best characters in the game( i am 100% certain will be figured out and drop at some time in the future)at the moment, i feel like or are capable of snapping up one of the spots. i wouldnt be surprised if snuck his way in there too.

speaking of which, i never actually made a tier list. i feel like i should try my hand at one.

(dont take order seriously; i myself am not so sure of ordering)(ordering based largely on theory; results mixed in)
s:
a+:
a:()
a-:
b+:
b:
jumbled subjective mess from here
so let me explain the "outliers"

: it may not come as a shock to some of us now, but while has been dominating at the local level, at the top level his results have been mediocre. his poor mobility and range mean that while he may seem top tier at a less skilled local level, at a national level he clearly falters because of his flaws. too easily outmaneuvered and spaced out.


: being a somewhat recent dlc character means that his meta hasnt had time to develop. but what is developed is pretty good. obnoxious zoning potential between zair and pk fire, amazing combos out of a dthrow(his grab is terrible, so they dont hold as much weight as they would on a normal character), and decent anti-zoning(only has a reflector and absorption method usable at the same time, and they're inferior to ) means that he's equipped with enough to be viable with a secondary, thus earning him a b ranking(may go up, this character is oozing with potential imo)

>: while this may not come as a shock to everyone, most people would believe they're equal. i feel and are above simply because sword layout kind of defeats the purpose of having a sword(i have a sword, i should space with it, right?), and that his neutral and recovery are frankly bad. in neutral he only has...nair and dtilt? and he's basically free offstage. dont get me wrong, isn't bad, but he's not good either. middling.

i feel like i could simply group characters in a competitive, viable, and niche format, but is that specific enough? is it objective?

 

[TriTails]

simply because sword layout kind of defeats the purpose of having a sword(i have a sword, i should space with it, right?),

You know. I have a sword. I space with it, I keep you away with one of my pokes, which are some of the safest. You get in, I hit you with a hilt F-smash and kill you at like 80%.

Spacing should always come first. They manage to get through your tip, well tough luck. Now they HAVE to deal with the hilt. Roy's tipper hilt should be seen as just a bonus and not something you ALWAYS have to land all the time. Marth just happen to have a tipper tip and only further boost his reasons to space. Roy? Well, he can keep you out if he hit the tip AND kill you for hitting the hilt. That's pretty nice.

But then again I don't have Roy and I'm pretty much theorycrafting at this point, but Roy's sword should not be underestimated because 'lol tipper hilt' because it's not like he gets zero damage and knockback from hitting the tip anyway.

(And damn, his sword trails look really awkward)

 

[Diddy Kong]

Good list @ Smog Frog but I'd only argue that seems definitely as viable as the likes of to me. But I think make for a very 'balanced' cast of Top Tier characters who are not Top 3. Who I agree at this point are .

But just with all the results that ZeRo ever had with , and him getting a clean 3 game lead on Mr.R's , I don't think Diddy needs to be any where less than at least Top 5~6. Am pretty sure experienced mains could push victories against the current top threats.

Again, a clean 3 game win streak from ZeRo's on Mr.R's shows that this matchup might be the most troublesome for Sheik. Togheter with maybe .

My estimation in the future development of the game (including future patches), is that will probably be the best characters in the game.

Am also really interessted if Ally can carry somewhere. Can someone link me up with some of Ally's matches at EVO?

Btw, am agreeing that & > .

 

[Routa]

Ike has best Punishing game from FE characters.
Marth has the best Zoning game from FE characters.
And Roy is something between.
Or at least I think it goes like that.

And I think it goes Ike=(or even >=)Marth>Roy

 

[Appledees]

It seems like Megaman has really fallen off with all his mains quieting down/resigning from tournaments...
He's one of those characters who gets a few good options with customs that didn't really materialize.

Its cause Megaman is just all around really difficult to play at a high level and requires the most precise play possible. Like he's probably the hardest newcomer to use at a high level due to him having alot of limited options compared to someone like Pac Man. Megaman's customs are actually pretty good and fix his issues sometimes but they're not enough to completely fix it and they're not something incredibly strong like HSB or Wind Clyone.

To honest even if Megaman was at his most optimal level of play he would still be middle of the road at best cause some characters are just flat out better with their options.

Also Megaman is not ****ing better than or on the same level as MK,Luigi,Greninja and Pacman lol

 

[Wintropy]

I'm convinced Mega Man tramples all over Luigi.

When your default moveset enables you to mitigate your opponent's main strength, you know you're in a good position.

Then again, beating Luigi isn't really an indication of high-tier heroism.

It's not much but it's something.

 

[Shaya]

Okay, can we please not have posts that go out of their way to use character icons when the context of the post was already fixated on them? Like please. It's really ugly.
Seagull Joe tends to keep it to just ONE instance of a character per post and keeps it concise nevertheless. Please.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Which character is the worst as of yet to you all? I have a hard time deciding between , leaning most towards .

 

[bc1910]

I don't think Sonic and Pikachu are balanced. Sonic is just impossible for some characters to catch and/or punish, while Pikachu is a pretty well-balanced character spoilt by Quick Attack (and HSB to a lesser extent).

Diddy is pretty well balanced at this point, aside from some banana stuff still being really stupid but there's not much you can do about it because it's all rooted in how standard item tosses work. His moveset should be left alone now, the only things I'd do are minor QoL changes (jab still has trouble linking for example) or removing some of Monkey Flip's more stupid qualities (the smash input, momentum stuff, the massive window for cancelling into the kick) but nothing is really required.

Sheik, Rosa and ZSS all have their own balancing problems with ZSS's being easiest to fix (nerf flip jump, instant Diddy-fied powerful-but-balanced character) but regardless, at this point I do think they're pretty far ahead, with Sonic and Pika behind them.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

i think ,, are only making a gap because their players are a noticeable amount ahead of the best ,,,,main(s).

So you're claiming that Choco, Nairo, Mr R and dabuz are a noticeable amount ahead of Ally, Larry and ESAM [among others] in terms of player skill? What do you base that on? Brawl history shows us that these players are all pretty much on par with each other. These players are mostly evenly skilled yet the results so far clearly favor the players that use one of Sheik, ZSS or Rosie on a quite consistent basis. That can't be just a matter of player skill and it certainly isn't coincidence.

 

[Firefoxx]

Stuff worth talking about in the aftermath of Evo and CEO [and even Apex 15 to some extent]:

* Luigi and Falcon not being able to back up their local results on a national level

Falcon's national level representation definitely struggled at EVO, as has become kind of the norm

Fatality got 17th at CEO. He didn't make it out his pool in winners at EVO

Tearbear double eliminated Nietono in pools, which is awesome, but also meant he got out of pools in losers. Where he ended up in the same side of his losers quarters pool as Fatality.

Had either of them won their pool, they would have been in the Tweek/MJG bracket. While those are both great players, that was probably as easy a path to top 32 winners as any player could have hoped for.

Max is more focused on commentating big events than winning them. Though he did make it out of his pool in winners

Acid got out of his pool in winners, and was then promptly defeated by John Numbers and then swallowed up by losers bracket.

Outside of trolling or playing to the crowd (or both) it seems like no top level players are willing to bring out Falcon as a secondary when their tournament hopes are on the line.

 

[**Gilgamesh**]

ZeRo totally outplayed Mr.R during the first 2 games, and Mr. R only started to make a comeback in game 3 of Grand Finals. I mean it was pretty obvious Mr.R was getting outright outplayed by ZeRo , I don't see how that constitutes to soft countering . It's easy to notice when a player is getting outplayed or when the player's character has a unfavorable MU. Take Ally vs both ZeRo and Mr.R, he had trouble getting in on both of them and couldn't really do anything about it. It was clear that Ally was going to need to outplay ZeRo/Mr.R by a large margin in order to win. Ally switch to against Mr. R further suggests that it can very well be a bad MU for Mario and Ally wanted to try something else. Although Ally lose solidly again; it's interesting that he decided to use Marth instead of Mario.

 

[Shaya]

@ ~ Gheb ~
To be fair Nairo was a contender for winning apex for many years in Brawl while Ramin, Dabuz, ESAM, arguably Ally and (despite winning one) Larry were not much in the same standing (most confusing sentence to write ever).

Some argue (and I hate them) that Zero Suit holds Nairo back. BLEH.

 

[Smog Frog]

So you're claiming that Choco, Nairo, Mr R and dabuz are a noticeable amount ahead of Ally, Larry and ESAM [among others] in terms of player skill? What do you base that on? Brawl history shows us that these players are all pretty much on par with each other. These players are mostly evenly skilled yet the results so far clearly favor the players that use one of Sheik, ZSS or Rosie on a quite consistent basis. That can't be just a matter of player skill and it certainly isn't coincidence.

is widely perceived as the best character in the game atm, so her meta is advancing far ahead the rest. she's not far ahead anyone else, it just seems that way because her meta is far ahead. not to mention she has rep out the ass(zero, mr. r, nietono, rain are all some of the best players on the planet)
also has the benefit of being widely regarded as one of the best characters with one of the best players driving her metagame ahead full steam(nairo, choco too), so her results are naturally inflated.
ditto above.

and the only real gap that i see is >everyone else...because she is the best character in the game and has the most rep, and the more rep you have the more players can make it to top 8.

now i ask you this: if there's hardly any good rep for an otherwise good character(think ), can you reasonably expect that character to have results that can match up to or the like?

 

[**Gilgamesh**]

@ ~ Gheb ~
To be fair Nairo was a contender for winning apex for many years in Brawl while Ramin, Dabuz, ESAM, arguably Ally and (despite winning one) Larry were not much in the same standing (most confusing sentence to write ever).

Some argue (and I hate them) that Zero Suit holds Nairo back. BLEH.

That's interesting considering that ZSS is considered to be like top 5 in the game right now. Do the people who think Nairo is being held back by ZSS want Nairo to go Sheik 0_0 Shays?. I mean vs isn't that Bad for ZSS. In fact I actually feel like she like the only character that can really put pressure/constant pressure on Sheik; not to mention she has the RARE trait of possibly ending early with uairs -> up-b combos which is really huge advantage to have against sheik. I actually like watching top levels vs it feels so fast, so enriching, I actually find this MU to be one of the best MU to watch in the game for me personally; so entertaining. Although Nairo is like the only ZSS that faces top calibers sheiks like Mr.R or ZeRo....

 

[Dpete]

now i ask you this: if there's hardly any good rep for an otherwise good character(think ), can you reasonably expect that character to have results that can match up to or the like?

The answer there is obvious, which is why just using results alone would be naive. Actually, I think Wario is a bad example; Abadango had a decent enough showing at Evo that I think should bump Wario up in people's minds, at least a bit. I'll bring Yoshi back to the table as a better example, because he suffers from the inverse of Wario: the masses think he's great, but those familiar with the character are down on him. The argument that "no top-level player mains him" is used as justification to keep him higher than he should be.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

I don't see how that constitutes to soft countering .

There's more to it than that - stuff like MVD's wins against various Sheik players like Vinnie at CEO for example. If you look at the bigger picture you'll see that at this level Diddy has a noticeable winning record against Sheik.

@ ~ Gheb ~
To be fair Nairo was a contender for winning apex for many years in Brawl while Ramin, Dabuz, ESAM, arguably Ally and (despite winning one) Larry were not much in the same standing (most confusing sentence to write ever).

Ally actually won Apex twice in Brawl and he also has a huge winning record against Nairo. That's not to say that Nairo isn't the better player in smash 4 though. But saying it's all player skill and that it has nothing to do with the character is just ridiculous at this point. ZSS and Fox are characters that have a similarly solid representation yet ZSS always has the better placings, consistently. I think that's solid enough reasoning to claim that there must be some sort of gap between these two characters.

 

[shane3x]

Zero did just post on r/smashbros that he thinks the Diddy v Sheik is a bad matchup for Diddy. He just didnt want to bore the crowd according to him.

 

[Macchiato]

Is there a charcter who didn't even make it out of pools not including lucas roy and ryu.

 

[bc1910]

Is there a charcter who didn't even make it out of pools not including lucas roy and ryu.

Plenty. There were only around 20 characters in the top 32 iirc. And some were not used at all even in pools.

 

[Minordeth]

Long Post Warning: To bring this back to the idea of viability, I think rather than a tier list, which is not particularly useful at this point (and may not ever be, outside of the top characters), I think character organization/ranking should run something like:

Good Results + Good Theory
Good Results + Mixed Theory
Good Results + Poor Theory

Few Results + Good Theory
Few Results + Mixed Theory
Few Results + Poor Theory

To further delineate, I think the concept of "Results" speaks for itself. It means characters that win, whether it's large locals, regionals, or nationals. By "Theory" I mean all that theorycraft behind why a character is either "good" or "lacking", or if we can't decide whether the character is actually good or mediocre (since truly bad characters may not be known to truly exist, yet).

An easy example of the Good Results + Good Theory would be Sheik. She has both the results and the theorycraft backing up those results. On the other end of the spectrum, we have say, Zelda, who has Few Results + Poor Theory. You group characters like this, and suddenly the concept of "viability" as a combination of theorycraft and results becomes a more useful operational definition. In addition, as characters with say, Poor Theory start getting good results, we can re-evaluate their successes and establish some working idea of why out previous ideas may or may not be justified.

I'll base a list on confirmed 1st place finishes with more recent regionals/nationals given more weight, although I won't discount locals, just for discussion's sake (This is mixed customs and vanilla):

Good Results + Good Theory

Good Results + Mixed Theory

Good Results + Poor Theory

Few Results + Good Theory

Few Results + Mixed Theory

Few Results + Poor Theory


I'm counting "Mixed Theory" as characters with strengths and weaknesses that are in ambiguous balance, at least from competitive impressions discussions. I probably missed a few things, and really, this could be expanded with a "Mixed results" bracket. But honestly, given the state of modern fighters, I don't think we will have a useful tier-list any time soon, if ever, and I want to formulate something that is useful given fluctuations in character balance throughout patches.

ETA: Link, Charizard, Ike, and so forth are in the "Good Theory" bracket due to the patches, and various analyses of their buffed strengths. Charizard could probably be in the Mixed bracket, but I think with his grab game and fast attacks in neutral that he can scrape into "Good Theory"

ETA 2: Added missing characters. A note on Pacman, I placed him in Mixed due to a relative lack of theorycraft from players at large, other than his mains. I have no doubts that across the general player consciousness that he will start to get "Good Theory" due in no small part to Abadango.

 

[ParanoidDrone]

Long Post Warning: To bring this back to the idea of viability, I think rather than a tier list, which is not particularly useful at this point (and may not ever be, outside of the top characters), I think character organization/ranking should run something like:

Good Results + Good Theory
Good Results + Mixed Theory
Good Results + Poor Theory

Few Results + Good Theory
Few Results + Mixed Theory
Few Results + Poor Theory

To further delineate, I think the concept of "Results" speaks for itself. It means characters that win, whether it's large locals, regionals, or nationals. By "Theory" I mean all that theorycraft behind why a character is either "good" or "lacking", or if we can't decide whether the character is actually good or mediocre (since truly bad characters may not be known to truly exist, yet).

An easy example of the Good Results + Good Theory would be Sheik. She has both the results and the theorycraft backing up those results. On the other end of the spectrum, we have say, Zelda, who has Few Results + Poor Theory. You group characters like this, and suddenly the concept of "viability" as a combination of theorycraft and results becomes a more useful operational definition. In addition, as characters with say, Poor Theory start getting good results, we can re-evaluate their successes and establish some working idea of why out previous ideas may or may not be justified.

I'll base a list on confirmed 1st place finishes with more recent regionals/nationals given more weight, although I won't discount locals, just for discussion's sake (This is mixed customs and vanilla):

Good Results + Good Theory

Good Results + Mixed Theory

Good Results + Poor Theory

Few Results + Good Theory

Few Results + Mixed Theory

Few Results + Poor Theory


I'm counting "Mixed Theory" as characters with strengths and weaknesses that are in ambiguous balance, at least from competitive impressions discussions. I probably missed a few things, and really, this could be expanded with a "Mixed results" bracket. But honestly, given the state of modern fighters, I don't think we will have a useful tier-list any time soon, if ever, and I want to formulate something that is useful given fluctuations in character balance throughout patches.

You seem to be missing . You also have twice. I really like the idea in general though, it neatly dodges the bickering over exact rankings.

 

[wm1026]

Does Shiek have any bad match ups or even match ups? I honestly can't think of any really. So I guess my other question is what character has the best chance to go even or beat Shiek? On another note I have been messing with buffed Charizard and I personally think with his spacing, grab combos, kill throw, and insane kill power is the best heavy or close to it. I think he should be about where Ike is honestly. Any thoughts?

 

[Smog Frog]

probably goes even with . i'd argue he actually won prepatch, but now that bthrows been nerfed its probably even(though most would think its 45:55)

 

[bc1910]

Long Post Warning: To bring this back to the idea of viability, I think rather than a tier list, which is not particularly useful at this point (and may not ever be, outside of the top characters), I think character organization/ranking should run something like:

Good Results + Good Theory
Good Results + Mixed Theory
Good Results + Poor Theory

Few Results + Good Theory
Few Results + Mixed Theory
Few Results + Poor Theory

To further delineate, I think the concept of "Results" speaks for itself. It means characters that win, whether it's large locals, regionals, or nationals. By "Theory" I mean all that theorycraft behind why a character is either "good" or "lacking", or if we can't decide whether the character is actually good or mediocre (since truly bad characters may not be known to truly exist, yet).

An easy example of the Good Results + Good Theory would be Sheik. She has both the results and the theorycraft backing up those results. On the other end of the spectrum, we have say, Zelda, who has Few Results + Poor Theory. You group characters like this, and suddenly the concept of "viability" as a combination of theorycraft and results becomes a more useful operational definition. In addition, as characters with say, Poor Theory start getting good results, we can re-evaluate their successes and establish some working idea of why out previous ideas may or may not be justified.

I'll base a list on confirmed 1st place finishes with more recent regionals/nationals given more weight, although I won't discount locals, just for discussion's sake (This is mixed customs and vanilla):

Good Results + Good Theory

Good Results + Mixed Theory

Good Results + Poor Theory

Few Results + Good Theory

Few Results + Mixed Theory

Few Results + Poor Theory


I'm counting "Mixed Theory" as characters with strengths and weaknesses that are in ambiguous balance, at least from competitive impressions discussions. I probably missed a few things, and really, this could be expanded with a "Mixed results" bracket. But honestly, given the state of modern fighters, I don't think we will have a useful tier-list any time soon, if ever, and I want to formulate something that is useful given fluctuations in character balance throughout patches.

ETA: Link, Charizard, Ike, and so forth are in the "Good Theory" bracket due to the patches, and various analyses of their buffed strengths. Charizard could probably be in the Mixed bracket, but I think with his grab game and fast attacks in neutral that he can scrape into "Good Theory"

ETA 2: Added missing characters. A note on Pacman, I placed him in Mixed due to a relative lack of theorycraft from players at large, other than his mains. I have no doubts that across the general player consciousness that he will start to get "Good Theory" due in no small part to Abadango.

Love this idea. And I don't say that lightly because I usually roll my eyes at any sort of "alternative tier list" post because most of them are stupid and over-complicated. But this makes a lot of sense. Rather than bickering over how X character should be higher because "they're sleepers" or "they are better than their results suggest" you're saying right, these characters have good results, these characters SHOULD have good results, these characters are lacking. 3 clear groups.

Minor nitpick but I don't think Customs-off Palutena has done anything results-wise? I could be wrong, but if I'm right she should be in the same group as Doc and such. Customs-on Palutena has results but her theory is pretty good.

 

[Minordeth]

FWIW, and I know I'm driving this point home, I don't think in modern fighters, we will ever have solid tier lists like the fighters of old. I mean, updates used to happen when a new version would be released in arcades first. That was how balancing a fighter happened. Japanese devs had always traditionally used arcades as a testing platform to further balance their games. Namco, Capcom, SNK - all these guys would release their endless iterations to try to make their games more competitive. Now we have patches and arcades are more or less dead. Given that the big devs have decades of experience balancing and understanding fighting games, they generally think through their balances.

By default, though, a fully understood meta will probably never happen ever again, which makes tier-lists of even more limited use. Match ups are now the new tier-lists, because while we may never fully comprehend a Smash 4 tier list, we can see on an individual, character-scale, how balance changes impact match-ups. If enough matches are impacted, a character can become less or more viable in the meta. Tiers will always be the invisible, cohesive target behind the scenes, but now the general FGC has to do what pros have always done - focus on their characters MUs.