Of course! Naturally, some commit more than others, but as I progress higher into bracket, most of the people I fight don't overcommit as a rule, but as an exception (hopefully due in some part to actions on my part
) Hopefully you won't mind me directly quoting each point, just to make sure I don't go too far off topic.
The way I see it, the only thing Ganondorf can punish in neutral is greed.
In many cases, this is true. This is why, in neutral, I've learned to occupy 90% of my time with empty movement to force reactions rather than throwing out aerials (with a few exceptions). Against players like those in question, Ganon's best recourse is to very carefully bully movement (push to the corner, cramp a little bit) without committing too much, and then correctly predicting their offensive or defensive options. If no one minds me referencing my own video, one of our players, a Rosalina, plays just as we're describing: never jumps, intentionally moves in terse intervals to minimize risk, and shield is almost their exclusive defensive option:
My answer was/is to use a lot of empty movement to push into tight corners, and if they begin shielding a lot, use aerial flame choke (harder to react to and punish on reaction). So, to answer your last question, aerial flame choke and tomahawks are what I use to circumvent shields. Though these are all highly circumstantial, and as I mentioned before, require pretty extravagant guessing, the beauty is that Ganon is never genuinely invalided by virtue of the fact that he does have a number of ways to implement 50-50s with tomahawks, aerial flame chokes, etc. In the worst case of exclusive shielding, you have reliable tomahawks/aerial chokes. If they're not willing to eat these, then you can scare them into action. Though the payoff for either may be disproportionately low and risibly fringe, these are things, even if grasping at straws, Ganon can do.
It's frustrating, and it certainly justifies a low placement for Ganon. Furthermore, you're still right in most of what you say. The only thing I'm really adding is that, in spire of your correctness, Ganon still has enough creative potential to beat even those who play the MU perfectly, which is certainly more than I could say for Brawl Ganon.