well, you kinda said it yourself - if erdrick is guaranteed to sell like hotcakes like cloud did, especially in japan where DQ is stupid popular, i feel like financial sense will come before sakurai's own personal gripes with swordies
Depends on if he wants to make 1/5 of the Fighter Pass appeal primarily to Japan. Sakurai also has a very good sense of making sure characters don't just appeal to one region or the other--that's why Takamaru isn't playable, despite Sakurai considering it once or twice, among other exclusively Japanese characters. Dark Samus and Chrom were also revealed side-by-side, because Sakurai said that Dark Samus appealed to the west, while Chrom appealed to Japan (though I find that confusing, since Dark Samus isn't popular at all, and I'm pretty sure Chrom is popular over here too, but I'm not gonna complain).
DQ does come to the West, at least, so it might not be as big of an issue, but unless Erdrick could have a really good and fun moveset that would overcome the regional popularity issue, then it's a tough call.
If you're referring as to when he referred to being difficult to make swordsmen disctinct enought from each other. He also mentioned the same ragarding brawlers. Doubt Sakurai will stop adding either.
Found the interview, it was from The Guardian:
I had always presumed there would be a team of researchers mining Nintendo history for possible items and assist-trophy cameos but in fact Sakurai comes up with a lot of them himself, working from a huge list of ideas that gets narrowed down to cameos and items that aren’t too samey. “In gaming in general, a lot of characters fight with swords,” he says gloomily.
I don't know how many characters are specifically designated as Brawlers, though most fistfighting characters in the game are very distinct in terms of size and design (e.g. Little Mac, Donkey Kong, Mario, Ryu, Incineroar), whereas most sword characters are typically conventional human shape and proportions. Meta Knight is the only outlier in that regard.
Moreso, though, it's also an issue of aesthetic and personality. The term "anime sword wielder" exists because many sword characters also have some degree of anime aesthetic, both in their design and character. Most (or all?) of them are also heroes, too, which means they have even more in common, and that's not exclusive to just the sword characters. Which is something Sakurai noticed after Smash 4, which is part of why Ridley, K. Rool, Dark Samus, and Piranha Plant all came into being. The slight focus on villains this game was because the game would be a little boring if it was just all heroes, and so by getting some unconventional villains into the mix, the game's roster becomes a little more diverse in that aspect.
I think Joker works well in this regard, as his title of "thief" makes him more distinct than the average fantasy JRPG hero, along with his very unique visual design. And that's not even counting whatever his crazy moveset is going to be.
doesn't erdrick have like a billion other weapons and spells?
I dunno man, I wouldn't even know the character's
name if it didn't come up here so often. I'm just balancing the vague concept of the character as I know it against what Sakurai has said and done regarding character choices recently. If Erdrick could be another Corrin or Robin with unique magic moves, he could work. I'm speaking as someone who knows nothing about the character, so take my evaluation with a grain of salt.
I'm just not quick to believe vague codenames as any kind of confirmation. Especially since they've learned their lesson since Smash Wii U, and other companies are now deliberately putting red herring codenames into game files in order to throw off dataminers and speculators.