Twin Christmas Parties 3+4 Mafia {The Matryoshka Scandal.} ~ Over! Who had the merriest Christmas? Who got lumps of coal?

[BarDulL]

By 85%, I mean at least one of Kary/Kantrip must be aligned with J/Ran if not both. 85% because some people can be redonkulous, like a left field OS or some other bullshiz.

 

[Kantrip]

How many scum are we dealing with, Bardull? Are you just working with a 3-man team here? I was under the impression that this was MyLo and we have a 4-man team leftover, based on presents/JTB's role.

Or do you think there is another indy even though we already had a recruiting indy faction that started off with 2 members?

Based on a 4-man, having one able to recruit would not only be overpowered (bringing the faction up to 5 people), but would also be game over right now. I appreciate that you're being careful and not clearing me, but I don't see how you're coming to the conclusion that I'm aligned with J and Ran. And you think me coming into the Day and calling J/OS a scumteam right away was part of that? Then all of my switching around of opinions to get to this point, that was all planned?

 

[Kantrip]

**** I'm doing it again. I focus too much time on trying to clear myself which is stupid.

I see you're on board with lynching Circus though.

I agree with the instructions to OS to shoot PBJ if scumflip and J if townflip.

If Circus flips scum I want J to be on me with his Bodyguard to ensure I am safe in my investigation.

If Circus flips town then J is scum. In that case I can't be protected, but I want Sworddancer. on me to at least know what I get hit with, if anything.

These are very important.

 

[BarDulL]

It could be three man with the ability to recruit 1, but I do not see the set up having more than 4 maf total at any point unless there's some really hard conditions that are met first.

We lynch right toDay, that puts us at 6v3 assuming an initial roster of 4 mafia, night phase happens and we go to 5v3 assuming a townie dies which effectively means MyLo part 2. May as well lower the odds of mislynching Town with a shot, especially with useless slots around like JTB that won't help us at all in the long run anyway, or slots like PJB that have super shoddy reasoning w.r.t. picking between J/Circus (the dude literally drops his vote on J as a placeholder and never removes it, it almost feels like the scum team is too obvious to be PJB/Circus/OS/JTB at this point, lol).

I don't know if there's another indy or not yo. As said earlier, the only indy left is probably OS if no one else. I think. IDFK. We'll figure it out as we go I guess? What are you looking for with your question?

It was not pre-planned at all. It's possible you were revived and simultaneously recruited though as OS suggests. There are other things in your interactions this day phase so far that suggest to me that you've been lenient with J/Ran all along, things like jumping on the point I made about OS helping out with three mislynches for instance perhaps to earn my support? The long and short of it is that I feel like I might be walking into a gigantic facepalm from the greenroom, but it's a little unlikely given the circumstances.

 

[BarDulL]

My only qualm with the Kanji claim literally is that Kanji never learns recarm though. :-/

J, can you explain this discrepancy? Is your revive ability called recarm or samararecarm? Kanji never learns it so I'm wondering what that's about wrt your role.

 

[Kantrip]

I was just seeing where your head was at with numbers.

Not sure when JTB got his thing telling him how many scum there are. Then there's the presents. If a scum can recruit then that screws up the whole presents things.

But **** if, you think I'm scum we'll cross that bridge when we get there. Right now we're seeing what everyone thinks wrt lynching Circus and following my NAs.

 

[Overswarm]

Circus flips scum, shoot PBJ without question. Circus flips Town, shoot J without question.

Gonna need reasoning. You're attempting to play kingmaker with my ability, but I hold the trigger. I can shoot you just as much as I can shoot PBJ. You're gonna have to throw me a bone here.

How many scum are we dealing with, Bardull? Are you just working with a 3-man team here? I was under the impression that this was MyLo and we have a 4-man team leftover, based on presents/JTB's role.

Or do you think there is another indy even though we already had a recruiting indy faction that started off with 2 members?

Based on a 4-man, having one able to recruit would not only be overpowered (bringing the faction up to 5 people), but would also be game over right now. I appreciate that you're being careful and not clearing me, but I don't see how you're coming to the conclusion that I'm aligned with J and Ran. And you think me coming into the Day and calling J/OS a scumteam right away was part of that? Then all of my switching around of opinions to get to this point, that was all planned?

**** I'm doing it again. I focus too much time on trying to clear myself which is stupid.

I see you're on board with lynching Circus though.

I agree with the instructions to OS to shoot PBJ if scumflip and J if townflip.

If Circus flips scum I want J to be on me with his Bodyguard to ensure I am safe in my investigation.

If Circus flips town then J is scum. In that case I can't be protected, but I want Sworddancer. on me to at least know what I get hit with, if anything.

These are very important.

That reads like you two conversed in a quicktopic, not gonna lie.

Want Swords back. He's either town or indy so I know I can trust that he's anti-mafia.

 

[BarDulL]

J/Ran shots upon TownCircus should be obvious...PBJ because PBJ isn't you plus PBJ's vote for J was just mega grimy in this scenario. His reasoning between distinguishing between Circus/J is...I don't even know what to call it. He's like "well, this guy could be scum, but this guy could also be scum, so I'm going to go with this guy." *puts placeholder vote on J and seemingly arbitrarily throws his support behind Circus without giving good reasoning.* Don't really get the differentiation but I'm reading it as him being scum with Circus.

 

[#HBC | Joker]

My vote on J is not in support of Circus, it's on J because I think J is scummy. If I hadn't thrown a vote down, you guys would still be giving me **** for "fence sitting", but now because I chose a side that Circus happens to be on, that makes me scum with him? If I had voted Circus, would that make me scum with J?

 

[BarDulL]

ScumCircus > PJB/JTB > OS > Kary > Sworddancer/Me > Kantrip > J/Ran

TownCircus > J/Ran, then it gets hazy, but depending on NAs things could swing.

 

[BarDulL]

My vote on J is not in support of Circus, it's on J because I think J is scummy. If I hadn't thrown a vote down, you guys would still be giving me **** for "fence sitting", but now because I chose a side that Circus happens to be on, that makes me scum with him? If I had voted Circus, would that make me scum with J?

Either way I don't remember you substantiating yourself very much than "well both could be scum, here I'm just gonna throw my vote on J when Circus is taking a lot of heat."

 

[#HBC | Joker]

When was Circus taking any more heat than J? Wasn't J the one who was under all kinds of fire right before he went V/LA? There's a whole bunch of reasons to question J's claim, plus Circus actually has a guilty claimed on J. I don't really see anything wrong with Circus' claim. It's pretty much only his grimey play I've been worried about, and J has been almost just as bad, in that regard as well.

 

[Overswarm]

J/Ran shots upon TownCircus should be obvious...PBJ because PBJ isn't you plus PBJ's vote for J was just mega grimy in this scenario. His reasoning between distinguishing between Circus/J is...I don't even know what to call it. He's like "well, this guy could be scum, but this guy could also be scum, so I'm going to go with this guy." *puts placeholder vote on J and seemingly arbitrarily throws his support behind Circus without giving good reasoning.* Don't really get the differentiation but I'm reading it as him being scum with Circus.

My vote on J is not in support of Circus, it's on J because I think J is scummy. If I hadn't thrown a vote down, you guys would still be giving me **** for "fence sitting", but now because I chose a side that Circus happens to be on, that makes me scum with him? If I had voted Circus, would that make me scum with J?

I'm gonna have to agree with PJB here. He's in a "can't win" scenario with you unless he agrees with you, which seems to be a pretty standard scenario with anyone who has dealt with you so far.

Like really, I don't trust your judgement at all because you're approaching this from the standpoint that you already know the answers and are just trying to get people to agree with you and anyone who doesn't is being scummy. That's not how it works.

I mean you're in support J despite being a flavor nazi, and his flavor doesn't match up. His night actions don't make sense. His role doesn't make sense. His play doesn't make sense. His bodyguard ability in its entirety in this game doesn't make sense. His usage of the bodyguard ability after he discovered he had a ressurection ability didn't make sense.

If any of the above had occurred with Circus, you'd have been calling everyone who didn't immediately vote him scum but J gets a free pass.

Why?

I mean CIRCUS is the one that put it into a Circus vs. J scenario when neither of them were up for a lynch. Pressure was all over the place and then Circus made it a 50/50 between the two of them and even after all the above you still decided to go against Circus because... that's who you hated on Day 2?

I just can't trust your judgement because it doesn't come from a logical backing. Sorry, not shooting PJB on your call. If Sworddancer comes in or you bring up an actual case then I'll go for it, but I'm not going to take someone out on your gut read.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Votecount 5-1

6/10 to lynch.

Circus [

]: BarDulL, J, Ranmaru
J [

]: Circus, PrivateJoker-Brown


Not voting [

]: Overswarm, Sworddancer., JTB, Kary, Potassium

------------------------------------------------------------

[collapse=Vote Log] Circus > J
Overswarm
Ranmaru > Circus
Sworddancer.
J > Circus
PrivateJoker-Brown > J
BarDulL > Circus > PJB > Circus
JTB
Kary
Potassium
[/collapse][collapse=Edit Log]

1. 12:50 P.M. EST on 12/12, I noticed that I had put J's vote as on Circus and Not Voting. The error has been corrected.

[/collapse]

Day 5 ends December 12th (next Wednesday) at 13:00 EST.

 

[#HBC | Kary]

Kantrip, where's your head actually at with regards to Circus/J? All this talk of what to do in the event of a mislynch is making me queasy. I know other people are willing to give OS a lot more leeway than I am, but I'm not even considering that we might still be playing tomorrow if we mislynch toDay. I very much doubt that he's a vig, and I seriously doubt Nabe would let us get away with 4 mislynches. If you were to discount Circus as a 'safe' play, would you consider lynching OS toDay?

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Want Swords back. He's either town or indy so I know I can trust that he's anti-mafia.

Here I am!

Finished finals and was at tourny Saturday. Will respond to stuff nowish.

But first a couple things I want to clear up that I've noticed.

I'll have Ranmaru clarify that question to you.

Aestic protects from poison, not from the NK. I protect from NKs, not the poison. However Ranmaru never got around to posting his role pm in our QT so I have no way of knowing the aestic thing for real till he gets back.

Recently, I noticed that Ran denied having Aestic. What in your discussion with Ran made you think that he had Aestic?

Btw, did anyone else claim to have Aestic besides me? I think that I might have caught J/Ran in a scumslip. I never once actually claimed to have Aestic, and I omitted some truth in how my modifier works when I did claim it. However, I do have it. Ran denies having Aestic, but J knows what the modifier more or less does. I can confirm this. If no one else claimed to have Aestic, then how would have J known what it did? How would he have known the specific name of the modifier that I never claimed the name of?

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

I have a single role modifier called "Ascetic" which states that I CAN NOT be targeted by any abilities during the night phase except for abilities that kill me during that same night phase.

Bah, I got excited here. You ruined the easy way out for me BarDull.

My question to J about why he thought Ran had Ascetic still stands.

 

[Kantrip]

Kantrip, where's your head actually at with regards to Circus/J? All this talk of what to do in the event of a mislynch is making me queasy. I know other people are willing to give OS a lot more leeway than I am, but I'm not even considering that we might still be playing tomorrow if we mislynch toDay. I very much doubt that he's a vig, and I seriously doubt Nabe would let us get away with 4 mislynches. If you were to discount Circus as a 'safe' play, would you consider lynching OS toDay?

My head with OS is that I really don't like him.

But if he is an indy he needs to kill off all the mafia, and mislynching toDay for him would be just as bad as for town. So in that sense as indy, it is within his best interest to get a lynch on mafia toDay. We also can't afford to deal with indy OS until we've dealt with the mafia.

The possibility of mafia is there as well, but I sincerely doubt he is aligned with J/Ran. So if J/Ran are mafia then OS isn't. However, Circus and OS could be aligned (nothing in particular that I found urging me in this direction, but it's simply MORE likely than the alternative by PoE). This would mean that a mislynch toDay followed by a mafia win WOULD suit OS. So how do we guarantee he doesn't get this? Since we're already lynching between Circus and J, lynch the one that has the greater chance of being his partner.

If he is indy and we mislynch, he's throwing the game unless he really DOES have a kill, in which case he will be shooting J anyways. Since he seemed comfortable with his lynch one shoot one suggestion, I don't think he is indy screwing himself over.

In case you're not still following, lynching Circus toDay is the safest play, because right now indyOS has the same agenda as townOS: Get rid of the mafia.

 

[Kantrip]

OS is saying neither Circus or J were up for a lynch before Circus made it between them, which I think is simply not true. J was taking a lot of heat for his decision to Revive me, and he was getting strange looks from a lot of players BEFORE Circus claimed his result. Not to mention that there is not even the inkling of a hint as to Circus having his role prior to toDay. I feel like this play could easily be an opportunistic scum move for a mislynch, because J was looking pretty shady at the time of him pulling it out. It also allowed him to claim last, and that's never a bad thing.

 

[Kantrip]

Not to mention Bardull for sure was disliking Circus prior to toDay. Not sure on other players, but I think Circus was making a ballsy play to attempt to save himself and lynch J for the win.

There is no reason not to lynch Circus between the two of them.

 

[Overswarm]

Man, reviving Kantrip was a bad choice. You make your choice of J or Circus based off of how it relates to me and what connections you think I have, and you think that Circus/J were up for a lynch because... what? People didn't like his revive choice and Bardull has been tunneling Circus for days? Bardull didn't have an ounce of sway over town yesterday and he still doesn't.

I can't see this being a gamble. There's no reason to gamble unless you've already been caught, and the only person that applies to is J/Ran.

 

[Kantrip]

Umm... I'm not basing this entirely off of you Overswarm, don't feel too special now.

So you really strongly feel that J and Ran are scum in this, eh? And you're so adamantly against lynching Circus that you'll discredit anyone's opinion if they are on that side? You seem to be ignoring anything in my reasoning that doesn't have your name on it, along with the fact that I initially thought J was scum but have since reconsidered.

I mean, if I could say with certainty or any sense of confidence that J and Ran are scum then I would go for that. But I can't say that with confidence, so why not just be safe and ensure we're still fighting toMorrow? You can shoot the other person if we get this wrong anyways, right?

 

[Circus]

I hear you Circus. In the J vs You I seriously scratch my head at a lot of the things J has done and said. A lot of it makes no sense, but I'm also looking at the bigger picture of partners and connections.

Okay. J/Ran is a pretty obvious connection. JTB I can't get a bead on because even when he promises stances, he never delivers. Kary has been hating OS pretty much all game, but has never really pushed him. PJB could be bussing J. I wouldn't put it past him. But that's something to be dealt with later; even if he is bussing J, I'm happy to have his vote. What makes you value my lynch over J's? I don't actually get it.

Swords proved that you're an investigative. That's it, and there are certainly scum investigatives in the game of mafia.
Unfortunately, we can't take your claim discrepancy on J as fact due to the possibility of you fabricating it.

Okay, I hear you. But I'm not fabricating it. If J hadn't cotradcited what I knew about him, I never would have questioned his claim (though I would still be questioning his NA choices). The fact is that, by the time it was time for him to claim, he was reluctant, and that was fishy to me. It was fishy to me because he KNEW he had to be wary of me. And he was right to me. By the time we were getting around to his claim, Kanji still hadn't been claimed. Even though I've never played Persona, I've learned a decent amount of basic importance stuff from checking the wiki all the time, so I figured Kanji probably had to be here, or was a safeclaim. By the time we were getting around to J, I knew Kanji had to be coming up, but also knew that J couldn't possibly be him. That's part of what made me so antsy for his claim. I ****ing know he's lying.

I wish J had just brought back July or something.

Honestly, I do too. July would easily see through this bull****. No offense. But July is super analytical, and probably would have seen all the **** I brought up against J before I even said it.

on pure scummamundoness, i just wanna lynch circus in this whole debacle. don't get me wrong, i really dislike his slot. but i have a history of misreading him and i have no idea why he'd fake a result on J.

No ****. If you're talking about Mass Effect (which I think is the only game we've played together), basically EVERYONE read me wrong. I had to ****ing fight for my life in lylo that wasn't even really lylo.

Ranmaru, was masoning someone really worth the expense of potentially dying and causing Town to lose?

GOOD ****ING QueSTION.

Posting quickly:

I guess nothing's going to change and if I just keep it to myself and the lynch doesn't go well, it could lead to my mislynch or losing a potential role.

I can shoot every night, but I lose my vote for the next day phase and the moment I hit someone who isn't town aligned I lose my kill ability permanently. So I get to keep shooting until I hit a bad guy.

I'm a strong man, so I can kill scum AND independents guaranteed if I hit 'em, but only once. I didn't want to announce this earlier because if scum know I lose my vote for a phase it makes it much easier for them to plan and I become a liability to the town, so less of a NKill option. Given that Kantrip was revived, Circus can catch anyone who has made a fake claim, and J/Ran claimed mod-confirmed mason / cop / reviver thing and a single bad shot could be the end of the game, I don't see myself being a high profile target.

So the question is, we have a 100% chance of lynching scum between Circus and J. Regardless of our blustering on both sides, ONE of us is wrong. Do we simply lynch one and shoot the other, thus losing my ability? Or do we keep it for a hail mary?

If we keep it, we don't know if there are any scum shenanigans that may occur making it to where I can't use my shot in the first place. If I use it, then we're using it on someone we KNOW is scum and can just straight up lynch. If we lynch Circus and he flips town, we get a free lynch on J tomorrow. If I shoot him, then we get 1 Night of Night Actions and then we are back to square 1 of finding scum based on connections from that person's flip. If I don't shoot him, then we get a guaranteed scum lynch the next Day, and then have two Night phases to gather information before we can do a lynch/shoot combo with more information in case the lynch goes wrong.

Both are good strategies depending on your mentality and I'm not sure which I prefer. I'm not going to shoot unless we absolutely need to (i.e., mislynch in lylo) but a guaranteed shot on mislynch is no longer the case now that Kantrip is revived.

The final decision will rest with me, but I'll happily take your input.

My input: Shoot J if you lynch me.

Don't shoot ANYBODY if you do the right thing and lynch J. I like the hail marry idea.

My only qualm with the Kanji claim literally is that Kanji never learns recarm though. :-/

J, can you explain this discrepancy? Is your revive ability called recarm or samararecarm? Kanji never learns it so I'm wondering what that's about wrt your role.

Really? That's your ONLY QUALM with J's claim? Not that I dislike your suspicion of J, because it's absolutely right, but there are plenty of reasons to take issue with J based on his claim that have nothing to do with flavor. I've brought up a couple.

Also, nothing like interrogating someone about their claim and then giving them options on what to claim to settle your beef with them.

When was Circus taking any more heat than J? Wasn't J the one who was under all kinds of fire right before he went V/LA? There's a whole bunch of reasons to question J's claim, plus Circus actually has a guilty claimed on J. I don't really see anything wrong with Circus' claim. It's pretty much only his grimey play I've been worried about, and J has been almost just as bad, in that regard as well.

I haven't had grimey play. That's Bardull getting in your head. People think I'm grimey all the time (see Mass Effect). The truth is that I just actually push my reads and own my stances when I make them. Instead of just hiding in the background and hoping for the best.

Not to mention Bardull for sure was disliking Circus prior to toDay. Not sure on other players, but I think Circus was making a ballsy play to attempt to save himself and lynch J for the win.

There is no reason not to lynch Circus between the two of them.

No. When toDay began, I had no idea whether or not my claim would actually be useful. But by the time we got to J's claim, and we still had a main character unclaimed, and I knew J wasn't that character, and J was being hesitant to claim, I started smelling something fishy. Not gonna lie, I was getting excited. I expected my role to be close to useless, but if it was going to be worth anything, it was going to be in catching someone in a lie exactly like this. When J claimed Kanji, I ****ing knew I had him.

There is one very good reason not to lynch me, and that is because lynching J will definitely get us scum. If we lynch me, then we have to hope that OS will follow through and kill J.

J called Ran Ascetic just to ****ing try to throw FUD on me. He tried to invalidate my role because he doesn't have any other options. I caught him. Lynch him. There is no reason to doubt my claim other than being skittish. Grow a ****ing backbone. I leapt on J because I knew I had J pinned. J obviously has to push back against me because he has no other option. If I were scum, I could have easily pushed a ****ing inactive or something. I'm pushing J because I have an actual discrepancy with his claim, and his play.

This is actually a really easy decision to make if you stop overthinking it.

Liiiiitle bit tipsy tonight, not gonna lie.

 

[Overswarm]

Umm... I'm not basing this entirely off of you Overswarm, don't feel too special now.

That's what I'm reading. Still haven't seen that case yet, so I've gotta guess.

So you really strongly feel that J and Ran are scum in this, eh? And you're so adamantly against lynching Circus that you'll discredit anyone's opinion if they are on that side? You seem to be ignoring anything in my reasoning that doesn't have your name on it, along with the fact that I initially thought J was scum but have since reconsidered.

I feel strongly that Circus confirmed ability is true, showed that J lied about his claim, which goes nicely with Bardull's flavor analysis of "J's flavor doesn't match up at all" as a cherry on top.

I have no reason to believe Circuscum and the only person who has been going in that direction has been Bardull and his cronies. This feels like a really strong late game push and every piece of evidence that has come to light has been against that push being correct.

I mean, if I could say with certainty or any sense of confidence that J and Ran are scum then I would go for that. But I can't say that with confidence, so why not just be safe and ensure we're still fighting toMorrow? You can shoot the other person if we get this wrong anyways, right?

Which negative to J's slot do you not agree with, exactly?

Seriously, I've read the game and I still don't see the case on Circus OR what J has done that makes him guaranteed town. Am I missing something?

 

[BarDulL]

: |

 

[Circus]

Bardull, I'm here. Talk to me.

 

[BarDulL]

*tucks Circus into bed*

 

[Circus]

I ****ing wish. I have to work tomorrow now, even though I orginaly had tomorrow off.

But I'm way too wired. Talk to me.

 

[Overswarm]

Seriously.

I know Circus' case on J.

Circus says "I have a night action that shows J lied about his role"

Has J come clean and said he fake claimed on purpose for some dumb gambit? No.
Do we know if Circus' ability is true? Yes.

The big huge glaring flaw I see here is that it's incredibly convenient for Circus to get a "guilty" on a player in what appears/ed to be lylo during the game's mass claim scenario, which is why I haven't pushed for a lynch but instead asked questions like you should all be doing.


J says: "Circus is lying."


So we have a very real, truthful situation here: one of Circus or J are scum unless some horrible shenanigans have occurred. We cannot account for shenanigans at this time and as such discount them. We get a 50% chance of lynching scum without even talking about it.


There isn't much to say about Circus' ability and if there is no one has spoken up about it. It happened as he said it did, the only ? is his result.

However:

The flavor of J's claim doesn't match up; this makes that ? less of a ? and more of "this needs to be explained".

That means everyone saying "J is town" has to come to one of two conclusions.

1) The flavor doesn't have to match for J's role

or

2) Oh, I guess J is scum


Did you pick #1? Let's move on from there and take your pick.

Town-confirmed mason reviver, resulting in a 3 man swing in town's favor by clearing all 3 players.

You get to ask yourself one of two questions again.

1) This circumstance is completely logical given the game's progression / balancing structure and/or Nabe made a mistake

or

2) That... doesn't make sense. Especially with the other things. It is less likely to be true than Circus claiming J lied about his claim and afterwards J's ability didn't match up with his flavor. It is too uncanny of a coincidence all together, so J must be scum.

Moving on still?

I can do this all day. There's lot of pieces of information out there, but all I've seen from Bardull and Kantrip is "eh, but that doesn't line up with my read from a few Day phases ago where I thought Circus was scummy".


SO again:


Kantrip: Full read on Circus and J and why you're choosing one over the other and how you discount the evidence against J

Bardull: Full read on Circus and J and why you're choosing one over the other and how you discount the evidence against J


I should be able to go back to that post at any time in the future to know exactly where you stand. I know where you vote is, but not your reasoning, so throw it out there.

 

[Circus]

OS knows what's up.

Bardull, you really aren't going to talk to me, are you?

 

[Circus]

>Bardull is offline

Okay. I just want everyone to know I tried.

-tucks self into bed-

 

[Overswarm]

OS knows what's up.

Bardull, you really aren't going to talk to me, are you?

It would help if you stopped bickering with Bardull and actually laid out points in a cohesive fashion so that way people that are inactive (see: everyone else not part of this debacle) can just read that to see what is going on and what information is important -_-;;

 

[#HBC | Kary]

so why not just be safe and ensure we're still fighting toMorrow? You can shoot the other person if we get this wrong anyways, right?

What i'm trying to stress is that I seriously don't think lynching Circus is a 'safe' option.

say OS is indy with a shot, but mafia have a roleblock/redirect/whatever. OS mislynches Circus and shoots J in an effort to clear himself as town, his action gets messed with, we're up **** creek.

I can't read Circus for ****, but I don't agree that this feels like scum fake-claiming for the win, the timing is all off. And with my reads on J/Ran going nowhere (because they don't seem to be here), i'm suggesting that we push something else; namely, OS.

I decided to cut the rant about how leaving indy OS with a gun is a terrible idea.

The jist of it is that I don't understand how OS is less of a priority because he's likely to be indy. I'd be just dandy with lynching the indy toDay and maybe going into Lylo with another round of night actions under our belt. I don't think that would throw us the game.

I know this is probably wasted effort, but what the hell.

Vote: Overswarm

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

What i'm trying to stress is that I seriously don't think lynching Circus is a 'safe' option.

say OS is indy with a shot, but mafia have a roleblock/redirect/whatever. OS mislynches Circus and shoots J in an effort to clear himself as town, his action gets messed with, we're up **** creek.

I can't read Circus for ****, but I don't agree that this feels like scum fake-claiming for the win, the timing is all off. And with my reads on J/Ran going nowhere (because they don't seem to be here), i'm suggesting that we push something else; namely, OS.

I decided to cut the rant about how leaving indy OS with a gun is a terrible idea.

The jist of it is that I don't understand how OS is less of a priority because he's likely to be indy. I'd be just dandy with lynching the indy toDay and maybe going into Lylo with another round of night actions under our belt. I don't think that would throw us the game.

I know this is probably wasted effort, but what the hell.

Vote: Overswarm

I hate you're play this game. You don't seem to be taking our current situation seriously, but this is the second time that you come in and express something which has been bugging me in the back of my mind.

Kary, be honest, have you've taken Night actions into consideration at all? How unlikely it is that OS was targeted by anything but the mafia?

Also, can you go into why Circus's timing was "off" as you put it?

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

I hate you're play this game. You don't seem to be taking our current situation seriously, but this is the second time that you come in and express something which has been bugging me in the back of my mind.

Kary, be honest, have you've taken Night actions into consideration at all? How unlikely it is that OS was targeted by anything but the mafia?

Also, can you go into why Circus's timing was "off" as you put it?

Just to clarify, what it is that Kary expressed that's been bugging me is Circus's timing with his claim. I just want to see if me and Kary are on the same page here before I express my concern.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

In all seriousness, he's going to get knocked next phase assuming Circus is defo scum (like I can't see Ran AND J being both scum, that's just impossible to me at this point...otherwise well played.) JTB is a fat null and Circus' investigation serves to relieve pressure off JTB. Circus also tried to swing away from a JTB lynch on D3, calling it "reckless" to swing at a null and instead aim for RR.

I actually agree that OS should shoot if it's a player that we're going to lynch anyways. Not too sure about it being JTB, but the idea is good.

Bardull you are scummy as hell.

For one, if you're wanting me to shoot JTB and risk the game on it you should be pushing for his lynch. You should also be making a case.

You can't see Ran and J both being scum because... it'd take good play? I can understand saying that they're not good plays because of XYZ and other people are better plays, but when someone comes out and says "night actions says I got a guilty on them" don't you think you should at least look into it? Just a little bit?

I get that you want Circus to be scum, I understand that. He's been a careful player all game, it's a slot worth looking into. Understandable, but it isn't understandable to discount Circus' claim because of that anymore than it is to clear J/Ran on their claims.

But you've gotta figure that scum don't need a long-term plan right now. J and Ran can be scum together and claiming town masons that happen to die if they mason someone who isn't town. We wouldn't be given the opportunity to find out. Circus could be straight up lying about his result on J.

The lynch today is going to be J or Circus, there should be no qualms about that.

Luckily for us, J and Ran are linked closely so we can pretty easily determine that if one is scum, it is easier to find them in a lie. Scum masoning Town is not unheard of (see: FF6), nor is scum lying that he'd die if he hit someone non-town.

So here's what we need:

J: How did you mason Ranmaru? What language was used for you specifically? Why did you revive Kantrip today and not at the END of a Day phase? Why did you wait until Lylo to revive someone?

Ranmaru How did you mason J? What language was used for you specifically? What have all your Night Actions been, why did you use them on who, and what were all your results?

Circus What have your Night Actions been, why did you use them on who, and what were all your results?


To the people referenced in Ranmaru's and Circus' next posts about their results in a clear format so people don't have to hunt through 1600 posts, do these add up? Anything fishy about it?


Kantrip What language was used when you were revived? Can you confirm that this was not done during the Night phase and Nabe's mysterious extension?


and then Kantrip should do whatever it is he was going to do earlier. This isn't rocket science.

The case on JTB: He hasn't done anything all game. Done.

Not liking a J/Ran scum team because "it would take good play" is a legit reason to not like it. If J and Ran are scum together then they are putting a lot of scum's marbles into this phase.

Question for the OS: Why do you make of Ran claiming Day 4? Why do you think scum J would claim mason/reviver in MYLO?

It's kinda hard not to think that you're trying to spread FUD OS, but . . . yes, I agree with you that BarDull should look into J's slot more. **** the idea that "I won't be ashamed if I lose to this scum team." Naw, play to win.

I'm pretty sure OS is scum with Circus. If he isn't, then I don't know wtf that dude is smoking.

But, my Night actions Do you doubt them?

I've only had one wrong mislynch, and that was Chuckie. Everyone agreed with the case, it made sense. There weren't even alternatives.

Rajam made a scumslip as town due to his own mistake and got lynched as a result. Red Ryu's claim was bogus and didn't line up (and STILL doesn't line up, mind you), nor did his actions make sense, AND it was quirky given both mine and Raziek's role.


You know why I'm trying to discredit J/yourself/Ran?

Because suddenly in lylo three slots that have been sitting in the background all day really REALLY want a lynch and have claims at the wazoo that somehow are supposed to clear them all?

From a mod perspective I find it hard to believe that Nabe would bring in three, count'em, THREE confirmed townies all at once in any sense. That's pretty broken from a mafia perspective. J revives someone who had flipped town before != town. Ranmaru simply having an ability taht can see other's roles != town.

I don't know why you're giving Ranmaru a clear simply based on the fact that we know his ability works. Did you not consider that Ranmaru and I could be scum together at all? Why not? What are Ranmaru's other claims?

What doesn't make sense about RR's role? He was most likely naive but didn't know it, as evidenced by my Night actions and what he flipped.

I agree with you about the idea of a mod giving three clears at once, but taking your own advice, I really don't like to try to outguess the mod.

When you said "three slots that have been sitting in the backround all day" you meant "all game," right?

OS, did you just not read any of Day 4? That's four slots now that you've classified as "not being in the game," myseilf including.

You're right about Ran, he hasn't been too active this game. However, you're wrong about everyone else. J was inactive until late Day 2. He had school, so his inactivy was understandable. BarDull's slot was inactive until BarDull replaced in at the start of Day 4. I don't know why Jditz was inactive, but I'm not going to hold BarDull accountable for it when there's no reason to single his slot out from all the other inactivates. I was inactive until Day 4 because of school plus you qucik lynched Day 2.

You have this really weird definition of "not being in the game." To you, not being in the game = not taking a leading role on lynches, which is something that you could accuse 95% of this game for. Read into what we're saying, not just how we're voting.

It's untrue that "three slots now really REALLY want a lynch." Only one of those two slots mentioned has actually been calling for a lynch. The other two slots only started gunning for Circus after HIS claim. You have the whole thing backwards.

What do we have to go off of you rather than your "bleagh" claim?

Seriously, what have you done?

JDietz was on both the lynches that you think were awful. You come in and you just sit there and do this during the Red Ryu lynch: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmyJ1RVfnPE

Then you claim to be Ascetic too?

Let's see... mafia poisons, so you're immune to poison?

Sworddancer claimed ascetic. You claimed Ascetic. Pjb claimed ascetic.

J revived Kantrip and claims to be in a town confirmed mason with ran.

Well **** that's 6/10 that the mafia can't kill right there, 3 via lynch and 3 via NKill.

Translation: Something is up and I don't clear any of the ascetics, or J, or Ran, or even Kantrip (although to be fair I give him a large benefit of the doubt until J's flip) because there's no way in hell a mod would let 3 townies be cleared and 3 completely different townies be completely immune to being killed by scum. No way no how.

So what reason is there to not shoot YOU bardull? I'm not scared of JTB pushing a mislynch in the slightest, but you seem to be doing your best to push a lynch and ask for a vig kill when it'd only be bad for town.

You want me to use my ability to save my own skin? I already DIDN'T do that because I can do math at a 3rd grade level.

If J is town and Kantrip was revived as town? That means we have a leg up. Why on God's green earth would I say "Hey, we're ahead! We get an extra phase!" and use that as an opportunity to kill someone?

I'm a strongman. My kill goes through, period. If we mislynch today, I can kill the other. Done, we're back where we were. If I survive later? I can kill in a scenario where we'd normally have lost.

I'm not going to use my ability to attempt to clear myself when it could hurt town if I miss. If we get down to the wire, yeah, I'll shoot, but it'll be a town decision. The only way I'll snapshot is if I know for sure.

Again, I really don't want to try to outguess the mod. However, I do agree with you that just from a balance PoV three ascetics seems unlikely. My intuition tells me that Nabe gave at least one scum an ascetic safe claim so to fit in with the other ascetics.

I don't post two line posts, use the multi-quote feature, and I sure as hell haven't been posting on only one subject. I know exactly how many posts you have. Your slot has still been non-existent. You have one defining thing for you and one thing only: Circus. That's it. It is so ridiculously one-sided that if we lynched Circus and he flipped town, I'd put it as equally good to shoot you or J even accounting for Circus' guilty.

If we lynched Circus and he flipped town then shoot J, no questions asked. Not BarDull. Tunneling in itself != scummy.

That doesn't sound right mathematical wise but that's for speculation when I have time. It seems to revolve more around the NKs with the about of normal doctors to posu-doctors there have been. However the aestic role thing is odd.

I believe Ranmaru has aestic (or whatever it is too). Don't quote me on it though, I'll get him in here to confirm whether or not he does. If Ranmaru does in fact have it, then that makes all of our investigatives claiming to have Aestic, but Circus which makes me even doubt him more. (not saying aestic = town, but it something I am toying with as an anomoly)

What's throwing you off? Btw, just an FYI, there hasn't been a single "normal" doctor in the game. There's been one poison doctor and two jail keepers, one of which was a back up.

If Circus flips Town then it's probably GG, but I'm pretty damn sure Ran is Town or I'll eat my hat.

I'm not interesting in throwing walls at you unless it involves arguing about which of Circus/J is scum at this point. However, I'm going to make it clear that I'm not ok with you leading toDay and I'm also here to remind you that you're still a viable play *cross arms.*

Ninja: That is a really good question btw.

Tbch, you seem very sure of yourself that Circus is scum. You don't seem much interested in considering the alternative.

Onto page 41.

 

[Overswarm]

Good to see you back.

Not liking a J/Ran scum team because "it would take good play" is a legit reason to not like it. If J and Ran are scum together then they are putting a lot of scum's marbles into this phase.

Question for the OS: Why do you make of Ran claiming Day 4? Why do you think scum J would claim mason/reviver in MYLO?

And Circus wouldn't be? It's also entirely possible that only one of J/Ran is scum, just unlikely.

And J would claim mason/reviver in Mylo because it would work. I would do it in a heartbeat, especially if my mason partner was town. 50/50 chance of lynching town, and if J gets lynched then 100% chance that "confirmed town mason" gets lynched? Sounds like a mylo plan to me because it guarantees at least one mislynch. If Circus AND J are scum and this is a gambit messing with town it provides them with a mathematically certain victory assuming they do not miss a poison.

What doesn't make sense about RR's role? He was most likely naive but didn't know it, as evidenced by my Night actions and what he flipped.

The dude claimed something he didn't even flip as. His claim was as bogus as it can possibly be.

You have this really weird definition of "not being in the game." To you, not being in the game = not taking a leading role on lynches, which is something that you could accuse 95% of this game for. Read into what we're saying, not just how we're voting.

That's exactly what I'm doing, and I'm seeing apparitions. The only solid stances here are Kary's tunnel on me and Bardull's tunnel on Circus and neither are particularly well founded.

If we lynched Circus and he flipped town then shoot J, no questions asked. Not BarDull. Tunneling in itself != scummy.

If I don't see a case from Bardull on Circus, an actual case with quotes and reasoning and logic that makes sense and not him staring starry-eyed at J, I'll probably shoot Bardull, plain and simple. That's the ultimatum I gave. Might change my mind but ultimately it's up to me.

What's throwing you off? Btw, just an FYI, there hasn't been a single "normal" doctor in the game. There's been one poison doctor and two jail keepers, one of which was a back up.

July was effectively a double doctor.

 

[#HBC | Kary]

Also, can you go into why Circus's timing was "off" as you put it?

Circus fought his way to the end of the claim order and made himself look terrible in the process. then he claimed a guilty on a player who's more or less cleared twice. That doesn't look to me like a play from scum on the verge of winning, it reads too rushed and desperate. Then when it comes down to Circus/J... nothing happens. Probably the only thing of note is PJB's vote, which doesn't look like a strong play from scum.
So...the timing is off because i'm expecting a strong play toDay. I'd bus if I was scum. It's off because Circus made such a hack-job of it. It's off because there's more general dislike with Circus, and IMO scum love to do nothing when town's cruising to a misynch. It's off because Circus, having just been under fire, was probably the worst person to try and push a fake result. Then J/Ran's claims look kinda flaky in isolation. I can't describe it exactly, it's just 'off'. I've half a mind to say OS is siding with Circus to get him lynched by association, because THAT looks like a scum maneuver. but w/e.

 

[BarDulL]

Sword - actually you're totally right, wow I feel so dumb lol. I wish Chuckie had claimed who he targeted N1 but I think Chuckie may have cleansed OS since Chuckie was talking about how OS was "anti-town as ****" but "not necessarily scum because of it." That's assuming mafia only has a poisoning ability though and no option for killing on the same night.

OS if you shoot me and you're Town, then you're throwing the game, plain and simple.

Reasons for CircusScum: Ran = Town, for one. Which makes J Town. Which makes Circus scum by PoE automatically. Reason 2, I didn't like Circus' push on RR. I feel like TownCircus would have read more into that slot. He didn't. J being on board with the RR lynch kinda sucks but I think he just went on board because everyone was set on RR and RR was just a big effing distraction because of how unsettling his claim was and how there weren't any other suspects. Still though, RR's motive for claiming the way he did was not obvious and distinct as scum because we were not in LyLo at the time. He had more town intent in doing that than scum intent. Thirdly, it's more likely that Circus is going for game here than it is for J/Ran to be going for game for a couple reasons, namely that J/Ran are screwed if they don't win here assuming OS blows out their brains upon a TownCircus flip and the fact that Circus initiated this dealio when he was getting heat.

Why the eff would I bus ScumCircus here when his motive would be definitely to go for game right now?? Gamethrowing 101 on my behalf if I was lol, instead I'd just do what JTB is doing and sit on my hands or lead the lynch away from Circus. FWIW I sincerely doubt I'd ever see myself busing Circus while being on the same team as him because I would never have to because the dude is good.

I'll write up a bunch of my thoughts tonight if I have time but for what it's worth I have 4 finals and a term paper due this week so keep your fingers crossed.

On another note, Ran and J need to get their cabooses in here.

 

[BarDulL]

Oh yeah J didn't even hammer RR, RR hammered himself.

mfwwwww.

He doesn't even compare to Circus in that regard then, not to mention he was like "y'know, I kinda see TownRR as well but we're running out of time and we need to use the lynch." I see that reasoning as more genuine than pushing RR because he's "anti-town as **** and his claim doesn't add up."