Twin Christmas Parties 3+4 Mafia {The Matryoshka Scandal.} ~ Over! Who had the merriest Christmas? Who got lumps of coal?

[ranmaru]

Exactly, I could have, and chose J.

I think it is related, yes. I think he got a day ability because he was now masoned to a day ability user. I don't know why he got a revive, though.

 

[#HBC | Joker]

Ok, I'm glad we cleared that up, cuz I was under the impression that your role was connected with J, which meant that if J flipped scum, you'd be scum too.

But if what you're saying is true (and it probably is), then that's not necessarily the case.

 

[Kantrip]

You've got to be Joking me, Joker.

Swords said that his ability explicitly stated: If he targets scum he dies. If J is scum then that means Ran is very much scum as well! -sigh-

Guys, if Overswarm is scum he's with Circus, right? So if we lynch Circus and get him to shoot J if we're wrong, things will be good?

 

[Kantrip]

That Swords should read as Ran. I typed that hastily.

 

[#HBC | Joker]

I must have missed the part where Ran said he'd die if he hit scum. I do remember people mentioning it, but I thought it was just speculation about how those roles usually work. Ran was MIA for quite awhile.

 

[#HBC | Joker]

You've got to be Joking me, Joker.

Swords said that his ability explicitly stated: If he targets scum he dies. If J is scum then that means Ran is very much scum as well! -sigh-

Guys, if Overswarm is scum he's with Circus, right? So if we lynch Circus and get him to shoot J if we're wrong, things will be good?

If we're assuming this to be true, wouldn't it be better to lynch J? Cuz if we lynch Circus and he flips scum, who is OS shooting? Nobody, right?

But if we lynch J, then we have 2 targets. Jscum, shoot Ran, Jtown, shoot Circus.

 

[Kantrip]

Yeah but if Overswarm is scum then he is aligned with Circus, so lynching J and getting a townflip would be a gamethrow.

Lynching Circus and getting a scumflip and OS not knowing who to shoot is the least of my worries. At that point I'd advocate him not shooting.

With that comment, you're putting my eye on you for a member of hypothetical OS/Circus team, but I heavily doubt you are on the J/Ran team due to your confusion on Ran's role.

 

[Kantrip]

My proposition:

Lynch Circus.

On a scumflip:

Sworddancer on me.
J WIFOM between me and Swords.

On a townflip:

Sworddancer on me.
Overswarm shoots J.

@Ran: Have you used your Day ability yet toDay?

 

[#HBC | Joker]

wait, why is Jtownflip game over, but Circustownflip isn't?

 

[Kantrip]

It's not necessarily game over, but let me reiterate this once more.

IF (I say IF) Overswarm is scum, he is NOT on the J/Ran team. However, there is a CHANCE he could be scum with Circus.

Therefore, scumOS could be a problem if we lynch townJ. Why? Because he won't shoot scumCircus, and mafia will instead kill someone else and BAM! Game over.

For this reason, lynching Circus first is much safer to ensure we don't get hoodwinked by scumOS.

 

[#HBC | Joker]

If OS were scum with a gun, couldn't he have ended the game last night instead of dealing with toDay?

 

[Kantrip]

If he's scum he doesn't have to have a gun. The point is he wouldn't be killing Circus is all. Maybe he's just got poison, but if we lynch townJ and he doesn't kill scumCircus, that's enough to lose us the game right there, is it not?

 

[Kantrip]

I don't like how he won't tell us what Persistence does. I don't feel like he's in a position to be withholding information from us with how his game has been.

Making me want to call him scum. Making me want to call the team Circus / OS / Joker / [JTB|Kary]

 

[#HBC | Joker]

I thought by bringing you back, we were out of potential Gameover territory...

Ok, we've got

Circus
OS
J
Ran
Swords
Bardull
Kary
JTB
Kantrip
Me

So there's probably 4 scum, leaving 6 town. If Jtown died, plus a townie died from poison, we'd be down to 4v4. I guess that would still be bad afterall. nvm then.

 

[Kantrip]

Yeah. We were in LyLo, my return put us in MyLo. Still gameover territory.

I'd advocate a NL except we don't know what kind of actions could be at play so it's really not a good idea.

Which is why this plan is the next safest thing when we're dealing with a SvT in Circus/J.

 

[#HBC | Joker]

Dude I really don't think OS is scum though. Didn't Swords have him cleared by NAs? Like, that's the whole reason he has him down as a solid townread.

 

[Kantrip]

Do you think Circus is scum though?

Honestly, it's not about the % chance of OS being scum. Even if it was 5% he was scum with Circus and 0.05% he was scum with J, I would take the safer route.

 

[#HBC | Joker]

I think Circus could be scum, but I also think J could be scum.

I fail to see how OS correlates to them though. Why is he any more likely to be with Circus than J, however small the odds may be? What is the Circus/OS connection that I'm not seeing?

 

[Kantrip]

Ran's Strongman result on Overswarm. Don't see him doing that as scumbuddies at all.
OS casting negative light towards J this Day phase and discrediting points for his towniness.

Just general things that make the J/Ran/Overswarm team seem unlikely.

It's not a connection to Circus, it's a disconnection from J and Ran.

But let's take Overswarm out of the picture right now because it seems to be too much for you to handle. Why do you seem to be so against lynching Circus? It's him or J, and OS can shoot the other if we get it wrong, so it's not the end of the world, right?

 

[Overswarm]

OS, why do you read Swords as town? Since when?

Not a town read. A "not mafia" read and a "not a lynch just yet read". I've been over this a couple of times now. He'd be open for discussion later.




Also wtf did this lynch me if Circus flips scum come from?

 

[Kantrip]

Who said lynch you if Circus flips scum?

 

[Circus]

Kantrip, I understand you're trying to set up a no fail option here, but that's not going to work. J is objectively the better lynch. If you actually play the game and try to read each of us instead of treating us both like these unreadable statues, then you may be able to realize that. I've recently caught J in two observable lies, but you're willing to lynch me because I'm "safer?" I'm not safer. You're just paranoid of OS (and believe me, I know the feeling), and you take him siding with me as evidence for a relationship between us.

In reality, OS has nothing to do with this. To be honest, Swords' NAs have pretty much cemented in my mind that, if he ever was mafia, he's an Aspect now, and is worth worrying about later if ever. If he's town, it makes sense that he would side with me because I'm right about J. If he's indy-recruited scum, then it would make sense for him to be eager to bus his buddies since I assume he must have to get rid of them at some point and we're getting down to the wire. It's not something I'm concerning myself with right now.

What I know is that J is scum. He lied about his claim. He is lying about his Night Actions. In fact, the sheer likelihood of a bodyguard in a setup with this many killing roles surviving this long is a statistical miracle.

Lynching J is the safer choice because it is the correct choice. Focus on that, please. I don't want to get lynched just because OS decided to do the right thing.

 

[Kantrip]

Persistence could be 'can not change alignments' and unless I'm missing something in the results all that they show is OS getting targeted with a Protect and a Kill N1 that are implied to be from the Inquisitor. Where that should recruit him, I'm still looking at 'Persistence' and going "hmm."

As I said, it's not about a connection between you and OS. It's the sheer unlikelihood of OS/Ran, and since Ran is scum if J is scum, then that extends to the sheer unlikeliness of OS/J.

If you're town, I could see how this might be frustrating for you, but I'm not going to be swayed off of making the safer, correct choice. I'm also skeptical of having scumbuddyRan jump to defend J with a "we're confirmed town to each other" play. And from what I've seen of Ran's game people have found him pretty town. The only people changing their minds on that now are people who are probably scum.

You, Overswarm, Joker, [I think Kary?]

But like I said, if lynching you DOES turn out to be the wrong choice, we've got Overswarm to kill J and everything's good. And based on your flip, I can get a result on a key player to piece together the rest of the scumteam, whether that be your buddies, or J and Ran's buddies.

 

[Kantrip]

I appreciate your effort though, that was a really good appeal you made there.

I'm just not budging in my opinion, and I know I've got Bardull backing me too. Hopefully Swords and the town between Kary and JTB can see the light. Or one of your scumbuddies can bus you, that's fine too.

 

[Circus]

Yeesh, this game. How many lies do I have to catch J in toDay in order to prove what I'm saying?

J has no proof for his role, because his role can only be proven through his death (which, as I said, makes it amazing that he isn't already dead). He lied about thinking Ran was Ascetic to try to score a cheap shot against me and suggest that my role must be fake because it is not Ascetic (then Ran had to walk that back when J fell on his face doing it), even though my role is actually proven to be real through Swords' Night Actions. J is lying about being a bodyguard. His guard choices make absolutely no sense, and that's because he's making it all up as he goes. That no one wants to believe this with literally all of the evidence in my favor is pretty frustrating.

I'm late for work. I'll get back to this game late tonight.

 

[Kantrip]

I hear you Circus. In the J vs You I seriously scratch my head at a lot of the things J has done and said. A lot of it makes no sense, but I'm also looking at the bigger picture of partners and connections.

Swords proved that you're an investigative. That's it, and there are certainly scum investigatives in the game of mafia.
Unfortunately, we can't take your claim discrepancy on J as fact due to the possibility of you fabricating it.

-sigh-

I wish J had just brought back July or something.

 

[#HBC | Kary]

on pure scummamundoness, i just wanna lynch circus in this whole debacle. don't get me wrong, i really dislike his slot. but i have a history of misreading him and i have no idea why he'd fake a result on J.

I mean hell, i don't like him wanting bardull/J to claim before him, and I don't like him not considering that his result might've been messed with. But why, given that he did claim after both, would he decide to fake a guilty result when he could've just backed down and said 'look sorry i'm an investigative i wanted to check your claims?'

It more or less forces toDay down to J/Circus and it makes so little sense as a play by scum. On top of that, I don't see anyone really pushing one way or the other; some people have ******** opinions about how J's role might work. Some people have legit concerns about Circus's role. and so on. But I don't see anyone pushing either waggon, whether for the mislynch or as a bus.

but the alternative is say OS/J/Ran/someone, and that's not nearly as neat. For one thing I don't think I've ever read J wrong. But J/Ran being aligned fixes the scumteam one way or the other (which if they are in fact masons is hella strange in itself), and you have to play what you're dealt.

what I will say, though, is that I still hate OS's slot in all of this, and at this stage i'm increasingly thinking about lynching him and hoping some night actions fall into place.

i mean, the alternative is to start a kick-*** lynch train based on gut-reads, which is amazing... provided it plays out ok. Sometimes I wonder why I take mafia so seriously :/

wow, that was long.

 

[#HBC | Kary]

also I really don't want to be wrong
i'd rather post my thoughts and leave it to someone else to make the decision

weird the things you learn from playing mafia

 

[BarDulL]

Ranmaru, was masoning someone really worth the expense of potentially dying and causing Town to lose?

Kantrip, fypov, just how likely is it that Circus' role is legit in this game?

PJB, did you ever give your read on Ranmaru? I forget.

OS, I forget, have you distinguished exactly what route you think we should go between J/Circus and why? If not, please do.

 

[BarDulL]

Also, I'm V/LA today and tomorrow because I still have symptoms of the flu.

 

[Overswarm]

Exactly, I could have, and chose J.

I think it is related, yes. I think he got a day ability because he was now masoned to a day ability user. I don't know why he got a revive, though.

Ranmaru, was masoning someone really worth the expense of potentially dying and causing Town to lose?

Kantrip, fypov, just how likely is it that Circus' role is legit in this game?

PJB, did you ever give your read on Ranmaru? I forget.

OS, I forget, have you distinguished exactly what route you think we should go between J/Circus and why? If not, please do.

ajg;ejgakjgaer

I had a whole post written out iwth numbers and stuff and smashboards ate it because I didn't hit "remember me" on this computer >_<

long story short:

Lynch J, more information, actions don't make sense and seem super convenient and fishy and Ranmaru posts stuff like what I quoted up above. We get clears of condemnations off of J's flip but not Circus' and that's better than resolving our own personal reads in terms of who we use our NA on.

Also, I think I'm going to have to claim what the Persistence modifier does toDay so town can make a decision about my role. I have to think about it, don't hammer before I do.

 

[#HBC | Joker]

Ranmaru, was masoning someone really worth the expense of potentially dying and causing Town to lose?

Kantrip, fypov, just how likely is it that Circus' role is legit in this game?

PJB, did you ever give your read on Ranmaru? I forget.

OS, I forget, have you distinguished exactly what route you think we should go between J/Circus and why? If not, please do.

If you had asked me before toDay, I'd have said he was probably town. With what has been revealed today, I have reason to doubt it. Mostly because of his connection to J, but also due to what you mention in the underlined. If J is scum, Ran is scum. And I think J is scum.

 

[Kantrip]

@Bardull: By your question are you asking me the % chance that he is town or the % chance that his role is as he claims it? If he's scum I think it is different than how he says it is, but he is still an investigative. As far as him being town, I'm seriously like 50/50 right now, torn between my disliking of Overswarm's slot/skepticism of Ran sticking neck out for J and my agreeing with Circus that J's stuff doesn't line up.

 

[Overswarm]

Kantrip, philosophical question for you.

Would you give up power for peace of mind?

 

[Kantrip]

Is this an "I have power over some guy because I have his kid hostage but if I give him his kid back I'll know mine is safe" type of deal?

Because if so, yes.

 

[Overswarm]

More like I have to defuse a bomb with a 7 digit code and then find and defuse another bomb with a different code, but I have the first one down to the last digit and I have a bomb-defusing device that will give me the entire code. Do I use it on the first, or do I risk blowing myself up to hopefully be able to find and defuse the other bomb before it goes off.

 

[Kantrip]

I would take the safe route that makes me most likely to survive. If either bomb exploding would kill me, I would want to find the last digit of the first and save my device for the second.

I don't know in what way you're trying to relate this to the game though.

 

[Overswarm]

Posting quickly:

I guess nothing's going to change and if I just keep it to myself and the lynch doesn't go well, it could lead to my mislynch or losing a potential role.

I can shoot every night, but I lose my vote for the next day phase and the moment I hit someone who isn't town aligned I lose my kill ability permanently. So I get to keep shooting until I hit a bad guy.

I'm a strong man, so I can kill scum AND independents guaranteed if I hit 'em, but only once. I didn't want to announce this earlier because if scum know I lose my vote for a phase it makes it much easier for them to plan and I become a liability to the town, so less of a NKill option. Given that Kantrip was revived, Circus can catch anyone who has made a fake claim, and J/Ran claimed mod-confirmed mason / cop / reviver thing and a single bad shot could be the end of the game, I don't see myself being a high profile target.

So the question is, we have a 100% chance of lynching scum between Circus and J. Regardless of our blustering on both sides, ONE of us is wrong. Do we simply lynch one and shoot the other, thus losing my ability? Or do we keep it for a hail mary?

If we keep it, we don't know if there are any scum shenanigans that may occur making it to where I can't use my shot in the first place. If I use it, then we're using it on someone we KNOW is scum and can just straight up lynch. If we lynch Circus and he flips town, we get a free lynch on J tomorrow. If I shoot him, then we get 1 Night of Night Actions and then we are back to square 1 of finding scum based on connections from that person's flip. If I don't shoot him, then we get a guaranteed scum lynch the next Day, and then have two Night phases to gather information before we can do a lynch/shoot combo with more information in case the lynch goes wrong.

Both are good strategies depending on your mentality and I'm not sure which I prefer. I'm not going to shoot unless we absolutely need to (i.e., mislynch in lylo) but a guaranteed shot on mislynch is no longer the case now that Kantrip is revived.

The final decision will rest with me, but I'll happily take your input.

 

[BarDulL]

Circus flips scum, shoot PBJ without question. Circus flips Town, shoot J without question.

 

[BarDulL]

WRT scumCircus flip, JTB can go as well. We lynch either PJB/JTB toMorrow.

TownCircus means J/Ran are defo scum alongside Kantrip and/or Kary. 85% on that.