Twin Christmas Parties 3+4 Mafia {The Matryoshka Scandal.} ~ Over! Who had the merriest Christmas? Who got lumps of coal?

[Circus]

Hey guys, just popping in to prod dodge and apologize for my inactivity lately. I know Im not doing us any favors right now, but I'll be able to get at this game tonight after work.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

I'm honestly thinking about claiming soon. I have some relevant information that I would like to turn over to the town. Plus, I'm not to certain that I'm going to be alive after toNight, ever since I evaluated my status to "obvious town."

Anyways, about OS.

Being a back up is . . . believable. We've already seen a back up flip, and RR claims himself to be a back up.

This specific back up explains why OS thought that there was a vig in his case against Chuckie. At first I thought this was a scum slip, but now I'm not sure.

Him not shooting last Night also makes sense, unless I'm missing something here.

However, that strongman aspect by itself just bugs the living **** out of me. Strongman is JUST a good role for mafia to have in this set up. gog

@RR: I haven't really thought about it, and I haven't looked for any connections.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Nice to see PJB likes to take a peak inside the thread just to leave again after he sees that we're not talking about him anymore.

 

[BarDulL]

I'm not letting him off the hook just yet, Swords.

 

[#HBC | Joker]

I haven't gone anywhere.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Well I can see you're here now after being called out PJB.

Comments on recent events?

 

[#HBC | Joker]

I'm here because I never went anywhere in the first place. You think I used psychic powers to know I was being called out, so hastily returned to the thread? Anyway...

I still think OS is probably town. I admit I questioned it with the strongman business, but his claim lines up.

@OS. why do you think your role has Strongman in it? With all your setup speculation, so you think the mafia has a BP or a Doctor? Do you think somebody has hit them at some point?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I can only see two situations for a town strongman.

Mafia doc is one and while creative I don't like it from a mod perspective. Reminds me one of Chib's games where he made both mafia basically immune to the vig, :/.

Second is to act like a miller to a town role cop.

Can kind of dig this one, but if that is the case why didn't Ran get vig strongman and just strongman?

Defiantly think it is more likely mafia.

OS fill me in on your J town, I have not liked most of his posts this day phase.

 

[#HBC | J]

I'll most likely be posting a catch-up tomorrow instead of short one-liners.

 

[JTB]

prod received, im reading as much as i can before i leave to work, then ill continue afterwards

 

[BarDulL]

Because I'm a vigilante backup, and I have the strongman characteristic. Hard to see why there wouldn't be a vig if I'm a backup of one. I was confused at Ranmaru's claim because I am a strong man, but it doesn't say so in my role name. It's a modifier within my role.

Regardless, I have soup's vigilante ability. I didn't use it because shooting incorrectly would have been game over.

With 9 players left (assuming I shot + mafia kill) and 4 mafia (6 presents, 1 inquisitor, 1 La B, 4 mafia), that would have resulted in a 4 man voting block of scum needing 5 to lynch, meaning they could alpha strike almost immediately after someone voted. 8 left, followed by a mafia night kill would mean 7, add in a vig kill and we're at 6. Mafia wins by default with or without the vig kill.

I asked you specifically because you've taken a leading role in my absence and that's pretty notable. I wanted to hear your take on things. If you're going to get lynched, it's going to be because I'm attacking you in thread and currently I've got nada on you. That's not good if you're scum, so I need to watch you.

I'm cleared of being a mafia strongman because if I had just killed someone we would have been in lylo and, being a strongman, there's nothing that could have stopped me. If someone wants to openly claim they roleblocked me, go for it, but our jailer is dead and I'm positive nothing of the sort occurred because there has been no suspicion on me since the beginning until Ranmaru's claim.

I have a different theory about what the presents mean. I suspect that they may have to do with the number of Persona 3 characters and Persona 4 characters in the game. Considering the SK/Vig/presumed back ups though, I'm not so sure.

ANYWAY

Given our situation of mislynch + lylo I believe scum can win this with a single mislynch. Given this I can see scum attempting to fake claim something incriminating to get another lynch as it'd be the easiest way to guarantee a win. Given that I ended the previous Day criticizing the list of inactives, the fact that Red Ryu came up with something on PJB (another inactive) seemed too good to be true. Ranmaru's claim on me was another one that caught my eye; why would he openly claim out of the blue like that and only had that result shown? But he seemed to be really bouncing around with it. It wasn't focused, and the strongman additive was true for my role. After reading how his role works, I have no problem with Ranmaru.

I just don't get what exactly his role is supposed to achieve or what it is meant for in the setup, which is my only real qualm with the claim. I'm wondering if maybe it had to do with the consulting detective role Kantrip had, but I don't really know for sure.

Red Ryu is my primary scumpick for toDay. I believe he messed up his claim because he didn't think about our perception of the setup. I think mafia tried to kill someone and it didn't work and they're using that to their advantage.

We had a poison doctor. Who is doing the poisoning? Scum! The inquisitor doesn't poison, soup didn't poison. Unless there's a town poisoner somewhere (doubtful given my role), that is mafia's method of killing. We know that they don't have poison + night kill + inquisitor night kill + vig kill in this game going on simultaneously due to the amount of death that has shown up.

There was no kill last night, yet our poison doctor is dead. This means that scum failed on someone who was bulletproof or scum was roleblocked not last Night, but the PREVIOUS Night. Poison on N3, death on N4.

If someone roleblocked someone on N3, btw, claim? Because that's who we'd want to lynch.

Scum definitely has a poisoner. I'm curious as to why at least two players haven't died as a result of the poison (I'm guessing on N3, someone died from poison, but not N2.)

Red Ryu claims that he gets the role that was previously lynched, yet he gives himself doctor, not jailer, on the first night? I still do not get this. Chemist vig? Do not understand the chemist modifier. Why was it added when he describes that he is literally a standard vigilante?

I have an answer for this, but I'd rather RR answer.

In this case he would have gotten Raziek's role, not Soup's, as Raziek died first! I do not understand how he could possibly mess this up with a fake claim.

That is the only thing that gives me pause: how damn sloppy Red Ryu's claim has been. I could understand there being two vigilante backups in that Red Ryu doesn't have the same role for more than one Night, but I can't understand him claiming "I get the role of whoever was lynched or night killed first" and claiming he got different roles.

Red Ryu, are we getting your night actions correctly?

Please claim all the roles you've received and in what order, and what you did with them, in a nice clean list.

Because so far I see this:

Day 1 - Rajam, town jailer, dies.
Red Ryu gets DOC role for night 1. Protects Overswarm.

Night 1 (start of day 2)- Kantrip, town Detective, dies. La B, shadow inquisitor aspect, dies.
Red Ryu gets... nothing

Day 2 - Chuckie, town Posu-Doctor, dies.
Red Ryu gets... poison doctor. Protects Overswarm.

Night 2 - Raziek, town volunteer backup (jailer), dies. Soup, town vig, dies. Ryker, shadow inquisitor, dies.

No Day 3.

Night 3 - No one dies.
Red Ryu gets... Chemist Vig role. Shoots PJB.

Day 4 begins.

Is this right?

You didn't get any other roles?

Also, why did you shoot PJB when that would have ended the game for town if you hit town?

If RR is Town, my only answer to this is that Shu (his character) can't realistically jail someone per se because he's a child, but it would make sense if he could Doc someone on the grounds that he's a genius child. Given that RR also claimed to have backed up Soup as a Chemist Vigilante, this idea is supported by the fact that Shu is a genius when it comes to academia and throwing vials with chemical compounds in them would not be beyond reason. Still, backing up a jailer as DOCTOR is just strange.

So do you think this is just flavor then? The independents were listed as "Shadow". I wouldn't expect Ranmaru to claim his role as being modified if he was recruited though.

I don't have an explanation for this right now. For whatever reason, Ranmaru is inhibited by probably scum, or it's a separate role modifier that occurs based on certain events. I'm guessing the former mostly because Rise adopting her original name of "Risette" is funky as previously stated and probably has to do with her "shadow."

At the moment Red Ryu, but not until we use the day phase to its fullest. Even if we kill Red Ryu scum we still have to do this all again tomorrow. No sense in rushing a lynch on anyone even if we have a guilty cop call on them at this point.

I'm not so sure about this yet. Still need your flavor claim.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

For the record, I know nothing about Persona. I'm lost flavor wise.

I have no real answer for why I got Doctor over Jailer, nor Chemist Vig name over just Vig.

I don't see how chemist vig name wise matters since I've been given long names like, The Violinist of the Ballistic Serenade. Which really was just a vig with a restriction attracted to it in Ryker mafia that could have been just Town vig.

It's just what Nabe gave me.

Bardull tell me about the Strongman as a town role vs Mafia role a bit, I'm still finding it very unlikely it's town sided.

 

[BarDulL]

Bardull tell me about the Strongman as a town role vs Mafia role a bit, I'm still finding it very unlikely it's town sided.

As far as I know, "Strongman" is a characteristic and not the role OS has per se.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

How about that Characteristic then?

 

[BarDulL]

It's not indicative of anything if it is merely a characteristic and not his actual "role."

This is primarily why I'm asking for his flavor claim.

 

[Circus]

I'm caught up. There are a few big ideas that I want to get to in my next post that some people have seemed to have ignored or dropped, for reasons nefarious or otherwise. I don't think anyone's here right now, but in case anyone is waiting with bated breath for my thoughts, know that it will be a moment while I make them coherent.

 

[BarDulL]

I'm caught up. There are a few big ideas that I want to get to in my next post that some people have seemed to have ignored or dropped, for reasons nefarious or otherwise. I don't think anyone's here right now, but in case anyone is waiting with bated breath for my thoughts, know that it will be a moment while I make them coherent.

 

[BarDulL]

Hmm. You know. That probably wasn't the appropriate effect I was going for.

Take it as a compliment?

Would like to know your thoughts on each player though, in all seriousness.

 

[Circus]

I do take it as a compliment. A highly erotic one.

 

[BarDulL]

I do take it as a compliment. A highly erotic one.

HURRY UP ASDKASDAKSDJA!

And where's OS with his flavor claim? There's really only one character he can possibly claim that would have the characteristics Ran mentioned, and I doubt scum have the character as a safe claim.

 

[Circus]

Okay, in this post I'm going to lay out why I think Red Ryu is, without competition, our best choice for the lynch toDay and some likely scum partners that I think we can theorize about given what we've seen so far.

I protected OS N1 because I like what he presented D1 though I had no clue of his alignment and I didn't want a pot shot taken at him over that, I didn't have any strong town reads so I went with gut and protected OS as a result.

N2 My role changed to town Genius Antidote Doctor, where I stop poisons from killing people. This is also why I think him being town is possible since no Poison death occured last night, but I'm not going to hold that over Ran's result.

N3 happens and I got Chemist Vig, where I make a chemist bomb and lob it at someone. But there is no delay or anything but my kill did not go through on PBJ.

That said, Ran yes or no for sure, is OS a strongman? I am will lynch on that alone, and if he dies and I get a strongman shot tonight I want you to direct my shot before we enter the night phase,

The post above has been lightly trimmed for focus.

First, I want to bring attention to this. These are Red Ryu's Night Actions laid out as cleanly as we've seen so far. Ignoring the dead horse that is the argument of Red Ryu's confusing role inheritance discrepancies (inherits essentially half of Rajam's role on N1, inherits Chuckie's role exactly as far as we can tell on N2, inherits Soup's role on N3, but with kill flavor added to the role title for no reason), there's quite a bit about the way Red Ryu's handling this role and his reads that don't line up properly to me.

First, skipping N1 because not much can be drawn from what he did that Night, we see that Red Ryu, according to his own story, protected OS from poison on N2. If this is true, then this essentially clears OS. We have confirmation through Chuckie's flip that there is a role in this game that kills with Poison. It seems that neither BRB nor Soup were it. It is reasonable to assume that the Poison killer belongs to the mafia. We did not see a death on N3, which means that the Poison role either did not target anyone (ridiculously unlikely), or the Poison kill was stopped in some way on N2. Red Ryu claims to have protected OS from poison on N2. The only logical conclusion we can draw from this is that Red Ryu successfully saved OS. Unless there's a Town Roleblocker in this game who for some reason hasn't claimed yet, this is the only thing that would make sense.

However, the one person who should be able to understand this most of all is Red Ryu, and yet he doesn't. He states in the post I quoted above that, while he finds his results of his N2 protect to be a possible reason for why OS could be town, he's not going to let them trump the fact that Ran was given the word "strongman" when he scanned OS.

Why the hell not? It does trump that fact. Ran's results on OS aren't anything that we can safely draw conclusions from, alignment-wise.

This leads nicely into one of my other points—that people are either being stupid or willfully ignorant of how a Strongman actually works and what it could mean for this setup.

First of all, I believe someone linked to this earlier, but since some people seem to have missed it, let's revist what a textbook Strongman actually is.

Strongman is a role modifier that signifies that any kills performed by this player cannot be blocked by any means - neither by Bulletproof, nor by Doctor or other protective roles, nor by Roleblocks.

....

It is usually scum-aligned, but has been seen on Town Vigilantes as well....

Despite what Kary said earlier, it is actually not true that Strongmen can be blocked by roleblockers. At least, as far as the traditional role is concerned. And while it's often a scum role, it isn't exclusively one, as Red Ryu and possibly others have attempted to claim. The roles that can properly deal with a Mafia Strongman are Hiders and Commuters, which we haven't seen in this game so far. The only sensible explanation for the lack of deaths on N3 that we can draw is that OS just didn't shoot. Which makes no sense if he's scum.

Red Ryu even speculates on this exact point with J around the 1000 post mark. Yet by post 1046, he's willing to lynch OS purely based on this strongman characteristic. Why?

I can't emphasize this enough: Strongmen aren't exclusively anti-town, and the ones that are have no reason not to shoot. If OS had shot on N3, we would have absolutely seen a body, because a Strongman cannot be stopped in any way; it can only be escaped. Red Ryu, of all people, should be able to see this.

I guess this is as good a place as any to bring up the setup speculation regarding a Town Strongman inclusion, because it actually makes a lot more sense than people seem to think (particularly given certain scenarios the certain people seem certain aren't at play here, which I will also get into).

The most likely reason for Town to be given a role like Strongman is, of course, that we're dealing with scum that are in some way hard to kill. I actually think the most likely version of this that we could be dealing with is the one that Red Ryu doesn't want to consider for no reason other than trying to outguess the mod. Mafia Doctor.

This has actually been a vague possibility that has floated around my head ever since it became clear that there was an Inquisitor in this game. Clearly the setup was built largely around that role, so it's worth knowing what the inclusion of an Inquisitor usually means for a setup.

The existence of an Inquisitor usually suggests that there are multiple protective abilities in play during the game so as to allow the possibility of recruitments.

As always, care should be taken with recruitment, as Inquisitor is generally able to recruit Anti-Town players and recruited players keep their former abilities. For more information, see Cult. The recruited players do not gain access to the factional kill if the Inquisitor dies.

The presence of an Inquisitor usually indicates the presence of several protective roles (as we've seen). I think it is very likely that this could extend to the mafia, especially in a large game, since we are probably dealing with around 4 mafs. Not only does this justify a Mafia Doctor since the mafia would actually have several targets amongst itself to consider protecting, but it also highlights what a tent pole role the Inquisitor clearly was supposed to be in this game.

And a town Strongman role actually fits that theory like a glove. It's acceptable to have on town's side since the town can still lynch mafia the old fashioned way if we lose the Strongman. On the flipside, Strongman looks completely out of place in this setup as a mafia role. None of the protective roles we have seen so far can combat a Mafia Strongman. Jailer, Backup Jailer, Poison Doctor...none of those roles can do **** against a role that pierces protections, runs past roleblocks, and doesn't kill with poison. At best, a Jailer might target the Strongman and fail to block him, doing nothing. At worst, the Jailer might target the town PR that the Mafia Strongman targets, and succeeds in doing nothing but blocking the town PR. It's net negative utility for us.

The one potential hiccup I could offer here is this: Overswarm's reaction to Red Ryu's claims. I'm not going to quote it because it's long, but you can read it here.

What bothers me about this is how OS doesn't outright attack Red Ryu like a wounded gazelle, despite how bad Red Ryu's everything is right now. He even specifically gives Red Ryu an out by saying that Red Ryu's claim may actually be too sloppy to be scum, which is quite at odds with his previous play. Why was Rajam never given this benefit of the doubt? Why was Chuckie never given it? To bolster this suspicion, I think it's very possible that the real reason Red Ryu doesn't want to consider the Mafia Doctor idea (despite the fact that he was the first one to actually bring it up, I think), is that he is a Mafia Doctor and protected OS on N1 and N2. In this hypothetical, I find it plausible that Red Ryu would be wary of a Watcher or Tracker role since we still have lots of unclaimed players, so being able to claim something that wouldn't conflict much with results from those roles would be safe.

Currently, I find it most likely that OS is telling the truth about this claim. The observations I'm capable of drawing from N3's lack of death and the roles we've seen flip so far pretty firmly support that idea. But I wanted to bring up the possibility of OS scum on a Red Ryu scum flip, just in case, because I don't think it's ever a good idea to take your eyes completely off OS unless you have truly irrefutable proof of his innocence and his reaction to Red Ryu does rub me the wrong way. How much of that can be chocked up to paranoia, I'm unsure.

I'm pretty much convinced Red Ryu is scum either way. I think he tried to hard gambit on someone he perceived as an easy target (PJB) toDay and fumbled it magnificently. He is now trying to brush that gaffe under the rug and deflect to OS on the back of Ran's claim, even though it doesn't actually hold up to scrutiny. I really think we got scum here.

Vote on Red Ryu coming in a separate post so no one can use the excuse that they didn't see my vote in order to hammer early.

I think OS, Kary, Bardull, J and JTB are who we should be looking at next. Again, I think OS is town, but the way people have reacted to Ran's results on him creates several potential connections. Kary always seems to draw suspicion, but we're starting to reach the end here, so the possibilities for scum are wearing thin, and the wishy-washy posting I saw from Kary from about 1054 to 1065 in regards to OS' alignment makes my stomach do backflips. Bardull is similarly suspect for trying to use flavor speculation as a reason to potentially draw down OS once OS' role suddenly started making sense to everybody. There's a fair amount that I actually like about J (namely, that he seems to be using his head when it comes to proper setup speculation and seemed to match several of my reads from earlier in the game, even though they were wrong), but his 1015 against PJB is grossly reachy and feels like it could be an extension of Red Ryu's half-baked attack against him. Mostly, J just isn't Swords or July, who are winning my brownie townie awards, and he hasn't given me a claim I can believe in like Ran, and he's not PJB who I think handled himself excellently under the recent pressure he's been under. And then JTB is JTB; he makes me want to go against all good sense and tell OS to shoot him.

Gosh, that took so much longer than I wanted it to.

 

[Circus]

Actually, before I do vote...

@Mod: Request votecount

I'm pretty sure we're nowhere near hammer territory, but I want to be sure, and I'm not in any mood to peel back through these pages again to figure out where everyone's votes are.

 

[#HBC | J]

RR only has one vote as far as I know. Interesting post Circus, I'll be sure to comment tomorrow. Time for bed though.

 

[JTB]

I read up to twilight D2 then skimmed a bunch. I have an idea of the direction I want to take, but I'm going to do some more in-depth reading in the morning. Once I get going, consider me invested in the game.

 

[JTB]

Oh boy, something just clicked for me too

Expect something exciting in the morning

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

I'll be waiting for your supposed revelation JTB. Until then, I hold out on doing anything else.

 

[#HBC | J]

Swords, while you are holding out. Can you give me your opinions on Circus and Bardull?

 

[BarDulL]

Circus, riddle me this:

If the characteristics of OS' character don't line up with his flavor claim, he dies, doesn't he? Why WOULDN'T I want to know what his flavor is? If it matches up, it simply makes his claim more believable.

On another note, "Strongman" is not a proven role modifier of OS', rather it's just a characteristic at this point in time.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I'm considering OS cleared if we know all night actions, and I wasn't the only one who did something like that last night.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Circus if OS is town and I protected him from poison from the mafia, since the indies are assumed dead at this point.

Wouldn't that make me town? Why would mafia use a poison doctor role on townies they were going to kill?

 

[JTB]

I have a few questions.

PJB, when RR comes into toDay voting you, why do you attack his character rather than questioning his vote? Later on you say hes one of your scum reads, but you passed up a perfectly good chance to pressure him. How has your read developed on him?

RR, when coming into D1 how far were you along in opening your present? And regarding toDay, what is your read on PJB now? You obviously had reason to target him with what you believed was a vig shot, but once it was revealed that you may have been roleblocked, your attack on his slot disappeared.

 

[#HBC | J]

Catching up since I have been insanely busy. Let's get straight to it.

And he gave up his gambit on PJB pretty much immediately after going at it like a gorilla. I think maybe he didn't think this out very well.

This isn't really fair and kind of jaded view of what happened there, Circus. What happened during the exchange was that RR claimed to have talked to Nabe and realized that he might have hit a bump in the road w.r.t. his claim against PBJ. It seemed plausible why he unvoted PBJ, but he didn't drop the gambit. He still is talking about it but using more logic behind it now.

The reason why I voted OS is because I targetted him D1.

I can only use my action during the day. I get results during twilight.

OS had these characteristics:

Strongman, Potential, Persistence.

I was just asking RR if he was a strongman or not out of curiousity.

I want to bring up something regarding the other two words not being focused because I feel they mean as much as they do in terms of the strongman word. Potential and Persistence do not seem to be "evil/heinous/scummy" words at all if they belong to OS. They all sound like characters that fit a good guy or town role. I may be reading into this a bit too much but it makes me feel with Ran's copping of OS, I don't want to lynch OS toDay.

Oh no, there is no third protective that was me n1 and n2, and I don't believe for a second a townie used their doc on you.

I'm Shu Nakajima, town genius.

Whoever gets lynched I turn into a one night back up for them or in N2s case whoever dies first.

N1 I found out I was a doctor and protected OS.

This is why I questioned if Chuckie was actually trolling or not when they looked serious about it.

N2 I turned into the poison protection doctor, it removes poison or stops it from targeting the player, that was what I was told.

N3 happened and I turned into a chemist vig and shot you.

I back up protectives so I seriously doubt there is a fourth one.

I'm damn sure Nabe tells people when they are token locked bass on Halloween mafia.

So why are you alive?

The bolded bit is the thing that makes me doubt RR's claim. Why does his claim change all because there was no D3? It doesn't make sense (to me at least) why he got Soup's role. The first death posted has been the assumed person to have died first and in this case, as OS pointed out in his large post, that makes it Raziek, not Soup.

Then when we get onto the topic of Raziek about him being the already flipped "Back-up" with OS being a Back-up to the person who was the vig. It really doesn't make sense at all. Speaking of how things can get very over powered, let's take a look at this:

Why would Nabe put in two back-up roles that would have gotten the same role N1? It doesn't make sense for there to have been two doctors from N1. Then again let's play this game. Soup was lynched D1 meaning the vig died. Raziek would become back-up Vig, RR would get a vig-role (apparantly), and OS would have become a Strongman Vig. 3 guns for the price of losing one...? That really feels unbalanced.

For me "Chemist Vig" sounds more like a good cover role for Poisoner since it makes for sense for a "Chemist" to poison rather than shoot people. Which also gives me a bit of pause because it could explain why PBJ hasn't died last night but it also doesn't make sense because he claims strongly that he "shot" him last night.

Here is a thing though, RR claims to get a different variant of each role every night but the night he became a back-up poison doctor. Why is that night so special?

RR's claim brings so many different sides and just is very confusing to go into but I think I am beginning to figure it out. Let me bring up a qualm from July which will explain a bit more while I have been skeptic about my opinion on RR. PBJ also wanted my opinion on RR which I admit to withholding fully thus far.

@J. What do you think about Ryu?

J- I'm having trouble reading J this game and especially toDay I find myself conflicted over his actions. He's asking good questions, but then he doesn't seem to question RR's terrible claim but instead makes focuses on PJB for reasons I agree seem reachy. I want to keep an eye on J; I don't want to lynch him, but I don't particularly trust him.

To answer both, the reason I have not been questioning RR in thread is because everyone else has already been asking a bunch of questions toward him and I had nothing to add to that heat. My original thought on RR was that he was towny. It did not make sense for me as to why he would just outright claim he had shot PBJ with such point blank gusto and conviction as scum. He wasn't on the chopping block and could have floated more if he was scum.

His actions are not logical as scum. However, I figured I may have been giving RR a bit too much benefit of the doubt since he has pulled illogical things as scum and I have read them as town in other scenarios as well. At the current time, I feel RR is a sinking ship with way too many holes in his claim and play to add up as town. Plus even if he is town, he hasn't done a good job convincing anyone of this fact with the claim that makes no sense in any way you look at it and his inconsistency on things. A thing RR said that sealed it for me was when he said "If Ran is telling the truth, I will lynch OS solely on claim" (paraphrased and can't be bothered to go search for the quote now). The thing about that quote that I don't like is that RR in his mind has a 50/50 guilty with his knowledge. Why would he give that up just to lynch OS? He hasn't expressed any distaste in OS till the claim (then again only a select few had. Kary comes to mind). It looks more to me like a desperate attempt to abandon ship and get another lynch going that isn't his.

That being all said and done, I am definitely for lynching RR toDay.

@J: What do you think about PJB attacking Ran for attacking OS, and for having a town read on OS? How do you interpret this?

I don't really understand the question but let me try and answer it the best I can figure. PBJ attacking Ranmaru is a bit off to me because I don't get why he is reading Ran as scum if he is reading OS as town. It seems a bit backwards because without Ranmaru, we would not have a clear on OS, which would mean, if we assume OS is town, we also have to assume that Ran is town and telling the truth. Ranmaru attacked OS with information he believed to be scummy which in reality provides us with a semi-clear on OS if we are to take Ranmaru's word.

I believe Ranmaru to be town this game which makes me even stronger on my OS town-read I've had since D1.

Here is what I have seen with PBJ's PoV on this:

I believe Ranmaru to be scummy this game but I still have a Town-read on OS since his claim/semi-clear status he has acheived.

It seems...off. That's the best way to put it. Don't know whether to mark it as scummy or just him thinking things very oddly.

And onto my final point I wanted to discuss when talking about PBJ

PBJ, how did you know this info? You are still a new player to the forums and I highly doubt you have run into the role in your games thus far since I have been either a mod of them or watching them. So tell me, how did you know about the strongman role and what it does. You say the last line in pink with confidence.

I agree with you 100% here.

Especially with an implication/connection theory I have.

People have brought up a lot of concern regarding this so I would like to talk about it for a second. The reason I brought this up is because I felt I had a lead on something but I feel I let myself get ahead of myself and put the cart before the horse. I felt I had caught a word scum-slip which I have used to help me find scum in other games like WL in Gurren Laggen and Xonar in F&L Mafia. Kind of the reason I got excited over what I thought was a scum-slip.

However, it was just that: a theory. It wasn't anything concrete nor was I really pushing it. It was reaching, I will admit to that much. but to say that I was adamant on it is another thing considering I didn't even vote and I also didn't even push it much at all. I just stated it and left. It is even moreso nullified by the fact of me thinking OS is town which throws out my theory completely.

Good things came from it though. People have come to see PBJ as town based on the reaction he did to my theory and I have to admit that I am seeing myself falling into that same boat a bit. By a bit, I mean I have a slight town lean on him. Some of his actions don't make sense (like his Ran/OS ordeal), but I don't see the scum-intent with him.

To end this, I want to express some of my reads shortly. Only the ones that matter will get detailed reasonings.

OS/Swords/Bardull/Ranmaru = strong town reads
PBJ = slight town lean
JTB/Kary/July/Circus = Null
RR = Scum read

Kary, he is coming off as very lazy play. Someone said that he is having IRL johns which I can understand, but when he has posted....nothing relevant has been in his posts. I am curious as to what happened to his strong conviction on one of Chuckie/OS being scum and one must be dying. He seems to have backed off of that but where is his head now? I don't like having Kary as a null and would like to have him lean somewhere but I can't. He would be one of my top hits for an investigation.

July, she has very...interesting posts. Something feels off about her posts especially when she is talking about her reads. July just doesn't seem like the normal obv-town chica I am usually buddying with in games. A thing that makes her uneasy for me is how quickly she snapped onto RR after a period of playing the middle-woman in terms of other lynches and then she was questioning me for not automatically agreeing with her or being with her on the train of thought with wanting to lynch him. Another thing that bothers me is how is very meticulously keeping me at arm's length. She isn't making any moves at me nor is she asking me any questions yet I am one of her biggest nulls. She makes a point to not call me town which she has been doing all game. It just urges, for me, on the side of too precautious. I can get being worried about me but it has been a common thing from her all game to have little jabs at me but nothing else. When July, in the past, has had a scum-read or even a feeling that I may not be town, she attacks me with all her power. I'm confused by her. My basic feel on her is a gut scum-lean. But that's because her posts are...needing more delving into them.

Circus, I insanely liked his last post but that's the only post I have truly liked this game. The thing about his last post is that it rung genuine when he was talking about his other "look at reads". I saw a stumped Circus without much pull in this game. However, I feel his case on RR was a tad...overwhelming. Not scummy, but a bit too much. Anyways, the thing about Circus is that his play is only starting to turn around. Swords said it best when he said "Scummy D1, Anti-town D2" because it is definitely the way it looks for me. He sits as a null and I definitely like him more than July but the thing is they both are my nullest reads that I really want to look into after all this claim shenanigans are over and I may still try and look into more toDay with an isolated ISO of them.

That's about everything for now. I want RR dead toDay out of everyone.

Vote: Red Ryu

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

RR, when coming into D1 how far were you along in opening your present? And regarding toDay, what is your read on PJB now? You obviously had reason to target him with what you believed was a vig shot, but once it was revealed that you may have been roleblocked, your attack on his slot disappeared.

I only got the first layer opened at first due to an ability that let me peak inside but only once. This layer told me I was a male town.

Raziek mentioned a picture and I got to the second layer, which still left it like that.

Only at the end of the day did I get my role which told me I was a doc.

PJB might be more town given his reaction, I don't like his dodging nature but he's on the back burner since he really isn't one who has caught my interest, like OS and J are.

I still don't like his jump on the Chuckie wagon but I can look past that, he needs to stick his head out so I can solidify this.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

J has only one scum read, mfw.

 

[BarDulL]

I can only make quick hits right now, no cases from me for the time being.

Only at the end of the day did I get my role which told me I was a doc

You were told you were a doc and not a back up...?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Circus - Leaning scum
Overswarm - Scum
Ranmaru - Town
Sworddancer. - Town
July - Dumb town
J - Scum
Private-Joker Brown - Leaning town, more talking please.
BarDulL - Town
JTB - Nullest of nulls.
Kary - Null
Red Ryu -

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I can only make quick hits right now, no cases from me for the time being.



You were told you were a doc and not a back up...?

Yeah I wasn't told back-up N1.

I was told doc, each night I get a new role PM.

this is why I'm guessing Genius since it's part of two of the three role PMs or something since I keep "finding a new calling" or something of the sort.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

So Circus & J I just wanna be square with you both.

You think I protected and cleared OS, yet I'm your strongest scum read.

I just wanna be clear here.

 

[#HBC | J]

RR, you are really missing the point.

Also what are you getting at about having only one scum-read being scummy? If I had to lay it out more, I would say that I have FoS's/IGMEOU's on Circus/July.

In your reads post you called all 3 of the people to build a case on you scum. You were even saying earlier that OS seems to be leaning town for you in terms of clearing him.

I'm considering OS cleared if we know all night actions, and I wasn't the only one who did something like that last night.

What changed?

 

[#HBC | J]

So I did an ISO on July since I am in the mafia mood and I came across a couple things that I wanted to bring up and what also worried me a bit.

First off, until toDay she was very hesitant on explaining her scum-reads. In fact, most of her posts have been explaining things she liked or just giving agreeing nods to certain posts. Here is what I mean:

This makes sense, not only with the 12/6 present distribution but if that really is the case then it's a set-up very similar to the first Nabe Halloween game.

I can understand that and see the logic in this, especially when Chuckie laid out all those points about La Bateleur yesterDay, but what I don't understand is why Chuckie would do that if he's the inquisitor. If their linked he threw his partner thing to the wolves and presented a lot of information on him that seemed pretty highly focused on getting him killed or revealed as Nabe or something along those lines.

Good point.

I'm skimming through a lot of the evidence, a lot of it is speculative/kinda paranoid but I can see where the paranoia is coming from and how the pieces fit together in this theory of what's happened, even if I don't believe it is wholesale. I do think that (having already read what happened toDay and I know that Chuckie was quicklynched ;-; ) that lynch did seem inevitable especially with this much speculation, evidence, and suspicion presented around the slot.

I also noticed the "from a friend" comment and found it strange, so I'd agree to keeping an eye on him.

Not agreeing with this though; I like Soup so far, he's been one of the most active players and I didn't see him advocating a No Lynch or being terrified of outing the true game. I saw him more as thinking before acting and trying to find the best approach to the Day rather than a knee jerk reaction.

:-/ I recognize that OS had a hella long wall and that there are some convincing points, but at least state what you agree with or add something to the conversation. My feelings of dislike for Raziek are only being reinforced toDay.

I like this, I think this was a really important attempt to get the Chuckie wagon to talk and identify itself and what it's reasoning was. Some was clear while others was not and is not and needs to be looked at toMorrow.

I really, really like this post because I think it digs into a lot of the same things I'm feeling reading what's gone down toDay. I liked Chuckie yesterDay but many of the points which OS raised are valid.

However, what I particularly like about this is that Swords is one of the few people (Soup being another) who actually looked outside of Chuckie for toDay at who else is suspicious and why. I agree with Raziek being suspicious and I generally find his play this game knee-jerky and sparse of any information or analysis which actually indicates that he is scumhunting or gives even half a **** about scumhunting this game.

Circus I'm a little less sure of, I tend to read him as town but I like Swords points on him and I think Swords is really taking initiative to scumhunt here so I definitely think he should be looked at toMorrow. And RR:

Is in a very similar boat to Raziek.

I see a little bit of explanation (which is mostly regurgitation of old information) here, but I also don't see a really strong commitment or belief to the Chuckie wagon. The last line is a very resigned, "I don't see a reason to move my vote", which clearly doesn't show much passion or belief in the actual legitimacy of the Chuckie wagon and he doesn't seem concerned with pushing it, talking about it and getting information from Chuckie or anything.

Main lead from yesterDay I'd like to follow up on Raziek. And no I don't think we should throw everything from yesterDay out the window, a lot of it isn't useful honestly but some of us could be helpful in looking at connections, attitudes, scumhunting, etc.

This was my main problem with buying 100% into OS' suggestion, but then OS posted this

And I remember that moment when La B called Chuckie "Kataefi" and that makes a lot of sense. This is why I understand the Chuckie wagon and probably would have ended up on it if it had, you know, actually been a legit wagon and not got hijacked and resulted in a ql. So while there are certain people like Raziek, RR, and Ryker who need to be looked at for their hella suspicious jumps on the wagon, I do think other people genuinely had reason to get on the wagon.

Thank you

And I agree that Ryker is someone to be looked at toMorrow, regardless of the flip.

Scum leans/suspicions I'd like to look into toMorrow: Raziek, RR, Ryker, JDeitz (to a lesser extent), Circus (to a lesser extent)

Here she talks about some points she likes and gives very light reasonings to liking people who were being attacked, mainly Soup/Chuckie. What I didn't get was why she was trying to illegitimize the Chuckie lynch after it had already happened considering that someone had already pointed out that she said she would have been on the wagon with everyone else. That's fine and dandy but here's the thing. She says she wants to look into Raz but only gave very little jabs as to why she suspected him.

In the end she gives scum-reads in Raziek/RR/Ryker/Ditzy(now Bardull)/Circus, but no explanations for the rather large amount of suspicions. The only one she really went into was the one on Raziek. She seems to be okay with giving people town points but when it comes to scum-leans she seems to have a lack of content regarding them.

Continuing on, this point semi-shocked me for over-looking it because she is doing the same thing PBJ is doing.

I've never interacted with a strongman before, at least not that I can remember. I think that with the information I've just gained from mafiascum about the role and the fact that town seems heavy on protective roles, strongman is scum here.

I have a town read on Ran. His early play has been not stereotypical Ran but it's not scummy, it's just less aggressive but still pretty active, asking questions, and what looks like genuine scumhunting. As I said before I believe his claim, I don't completely understand it but I genuinely think he claimed because he thought it would help town and there are aspects of his claim that I believe because of my own role. Nothing about Ran's play has set up red flags for me, including his claim.

Not town reads:

OS - I think that it's really likely that OS was indy hunting yesterDay, and I believe Ran's claim so it makes me especially skeptical of OS and the possibility he may be a "strongman" or have strongman characteristics. In terms of his input/reads, most of what I remember from him was based on his interactions with Chuckie.

As you can see, she is sitting on a Ranmaru town-read while claiming at the same time she has a scum-lean on OS. She says that she is skeptical based on OS' claim. However she subtly tries to mention that OS should be looked at for being the main proponent for the Chuckie lynch since she is saying that he should be looked at based on his interactions with Chuckie. July says that OS was indy hunting yesterDay. OS blatantly made this known and also admitted to this fact because he felt he had a strong read on Chuckie based on Le B. The thing that strikes me with July saying this is because she isn't looking at all the facts and she is seeming rushed to call OS scum for some reason I don't get. The information we have present results in a semi-clear OS, but July still insists on a scummy OS.

We also have the fact that July is using the exact same type of attack BRB, Not Posting was using in his hammer post to try and throw suspicion onto OS. It gave me a grimy feeling then and it gives me one now.

Circus- Circus is a town lean; he's been in the background at times but when he has input I think it's usually analytic and it helps to gather information or scumhunt. No matter what his questions and his input are taking him somewhere and I can see him developing his reads throughout the game and I like them and think he's helping town.

What changed, July? You had a scum-lean/suspicion on Circus before but now you say that he has always been helping gather information and scumhunt. What specifically do you like of Circus? You give a broad statement saying you like his reads and he's helping town, but that doesn't do much to give insight to his slot from you. *coloring so it doesn't get lost in this post*

Bardull- I was a little suspicious of JDeitz based on his knowledge of the theme D1, but toDay Bardull has had a lot of good input and really seems to be focused on getting player's to post, getting reads on players, and thank baby Jesus he's actually been talking about RR's claim and it's suspicious inconsistencies (as has Circus and also makes me feel better about Circus too). Town lean.

Not disagreeing with your town lean on Bardull but what in the world are you talking about in the bolded? How was Ditzy suspicious based on his knowledge of the theme considering he outed it to everyone?

Using this read statement as well. You seem to be giving town-leans to those who agreed with you instantly on RR being scum and giving those who were a bit more contemplative on the decision to work through things. Are you sure you aren't being jaded by the view of people agreeing with you = towny leans? You are doing so to Bardull and Circus it seems.

That's all I really wanted to talk about regarding July. I am leaning towards having her as a stronger scum-read than before so she is definitely more on my radar more because her actions are seeming questionable to me.

FoS: July