Twin Christmas Parties 3+4 Mafia {The Matryoshka Scandal.} ~ Over! Who had the merriest Christmas? Who got lumps of coal?

[Rajam]

Vote: Ranmaru

I hate One Piece!

"I agree, but that isn't a good reason to kill someone... don't let the blood-lust CONTROL YOU" I stare you down coldly as it occurs to me... "Or are you looking to start trouble...!"

I keep my eye on Red Ryu...

Le Bateleur, why is the headline of that post:

" I look around the room. Is the murderer someone I love??"

Are you trying to hint us something? Why did you accept vanderzant's friend request? Is he someone you love?

 

[Overswarm]

@Overswarm, Posts #260 and #261: Chuckie and Le Bateleur already posted at the same time there.

What do you think, in terms of alignment, that it is possibly that Chuckie and Le Bateleur are the same person?

Posting at the same time on separate accounts is easy. Two browsers, done.

The important thing is that they fulfilled my request.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Nabe said the person hanging was in a parka after Le Bateleur asked him...

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

@Mod Is the person hanging a male or female?

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Le Bateleur, why do you talk in quotations?

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

I think I know who Le Bateleur is.

 

[Rajam]

I think I know who Le Bateleur is.

Any reason not to out the name in that very same post?

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

It's not the person who he is, rather the role he has.

 

[Rajam]

Circus what is your read on soup (explaining why of course)?

Also, do you currently know your alignment? If yes, when did you learn it?

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Nabe did the man definitely hang to death?

Nobody feels comfortable getting close enough to confirm. You see no blood or obvious wounds.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

@Mod Is the person hanging a male or female?

It looks like a male at your comfortable distance from the body.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Yeah. I just read again. I had a hunch.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Le Bateleur, could you explain how you feel about the setting of this game? Do you have any guesses on the theme? You have your real role, yes?

 

[Rajam]

Oh soup, will ever there come a day where you don't scumread me? I wonder, I wonder.

When did that scumread arise and from what?

Guessing at my true character now.

Kantrip do you have a town read on soup?

 

[Circus]

Circus what is your read on soup (explaining why of course)?

To be honest, it will probably depend a fair amount on your flip. I find his early play, specifically his willingness to help other players through early layers of their boxes, to be quite towny. But he later goes on a No Lynch tangent that I don't understand at all. Reading it once, it seems like it's just what he thought would be the townie thing to do given the fact that we haven't really gotten a chance to scumhunt yet since so much of toDay needed to be dedicated to theme dissection. I think it's prudent to be wary of any player who seems too afraid to lynch a townie. Mislynches aren't ideal, but they aren't something to be feared until much later in the game. Seeing Soup wring his hands over it is troubling. That and his back-and-forth with OS looks terrible.

There. I answered your question much better than you answered mine.

Also, do you currently know your alignment? If yes, when did you learn it?

Yes. Technically, Nabe informed me of my alignment nearly a week ago, but since I had kind of a freak bout of absence, I didn't actually read it until yesterday. I have since guessed the true theme and now know my whole role.

Soup, why are you concerning yourself so much with Labatt Blue beer? Is this really something that you think should be dealt with now? It looks like you're getting dangerously close to rolefishing.

 

[Overswarm]

Dangerously close? That's deliberately what he's doing. The only difference is that La B isn't a real boy.

 

[Circus]

Labatt may not be a real boy, but he's got a real role if the guest list is to be believed.

 

[Chuckie]

Lol at people thinking we're Le Bateleur. Now if I could just convince myself to hammer Rajam, wii could wrap this day up

 

[Rajam]

Oh soup, will ever there come a day where you don't scumread me? I wonder, I wonder.

When did that scumread arise and from what?

Guessing at my true character now.

Kantrip, your attitude is not necessary, and I'm scratching my head trying to wonder why you lash at me so suddenly.

I'm not lashing soup. No attitude, seriously. You're getting the wrong impression my friend.

My question is legitimate though: Where does your scumread on my slot come from and when did it start?

Gut. No substantiation on it. I got a feel about you. It does stem from your attitude if you care about that instance but I'm going to keep it disclosed as I'm not lynching it and I'm taking a backseat.

I don't like that you're putting forth a series of gut reads with no substantiation, in all honesty. I feel like you always seem to have a feel about me. I saw it in LoL UPick among other games. When you're town you might start trying to armchair critic, but when you're scum you'll just call me scummy (sometimes with some attempts at armchair critic thrown in). Considering you have no reason above gut (stemming from "my attitude" which you've already been evidently misinterpreting) I can't say I like your sole scum read one bit.

ok I'm quoting this whole exchange because something has been bugging me about it and I finally "deciphered" what is it:

- From the first quote, I can see two different possible townie motivations: First one, Kantrip had an honest town read on soup (but wanted to know why soup had a scum read on him), or second one, Kantrip wanted to set up a "mini-trap" to soup. Nonetheless, at the end none of these town motivations match. I'll go indeep in both cases:

~ First case: Kantrip had a town read on soup ~​

Why? Is one of two interpretations I get from his very first line in the 1st quote:

"Oh soup, will ever there come a day where you don't scumread me? I wonder, I wonder."

First interpretation: This sentence implicitly shows that Kantrip had a paranoid-townie read on soup; the calm way in which Kantrip put this paragraph is like he "understands" soup being paranoid about Kantrip's alignment ("again in a mafia game", according to the experience Kantrip mentions in the last quote), and paranoid in this case equals to town.

Nonetheless, if this were the case, it would imply Kantrip was developing a town read on soup from some time, which is in contradiction with the way Kantrip starts the last quote:

"I don't like that you're putting forth a series of gut reads with no substantiation, in all honesty."

That line shows Kantrip has been suspecting the way soup has been developing his reads this game, which can't go in hand with the premise of this case: "Kantrip had a town read on soup" when he posted the first quote.

Conclusion: This first case isn't "true" then; Kantrip wasn't having a town read on soup when he started this whole exchange.

~ Second case: Kantrip wanted to set up a "mini-trap" for soup ~​

Now I'll talk about the second possible interpretation I got from the same line I referred before:

"Oh soup, will ever there come a day where you don't scumread me? I wonder, I wonder."

Second interpretation: The second interpretation comes in hand with the last quote:

"I don't like that you're putting forth a series of gut reads with no substantiation, in all honesty. I feel like you always seem to have a feel about me. I saw it in LoL UPick among other games. When you're town you might start trying to armchair critic, but when you're scum you'll just call me scummy (sometimes with some attempts at armchair critic thrown in). Considering you have no reason above gut (stemming from "my attitude" which you've already been evidently misinterpreting) I can't say I like your sole scum read one bit."

From this last quote, we can see that Kantrip already has experience from past games with the way soup makes reads on him. An interpretation for the 1st quote then is that Kantrip already had in mind this "knowledge" when asking soup about his read, and wanted to set-up a "mini-trap" for soup. The way in which the first line is worded, specially with the "I wonder, I wonder" part, makes me think of this interpretation.

Nonetheless, and despite the answer soup gives should put him in the scum side in Kantrip's eyes, Kantrip doesn't and hasn't pursued it much; he just threw the accusation we see in the last quote, which has been forgotten in time; there is no vote, and there has been a lack of more agressive persecution.

Conclusion: There is no town motivation for this "trap", because despite working "perfectly", Kantrip barely pursues it. It's like he knew this meta point on soup was going to be weak and hence hasn't wanted to touch it more deeply. Even if it wasn't a prepared trap, the previous statement still counts. The accusation fits a lot more on scum, since it's weak, hasn't been pursued, but serves as an excuse for the future that Kantrip was "scumhunting" toDay.





Overall then, I see no other townie motivations from Kantrip's side for this exchange quoted to happen and develop this way, which makes me grow a deeper scumread on him. The only possible townie motivations I could see to originate this, at the end don't match. Please consider this point after my flip, don't throw it in the "reach" pile

 

[Rajam]

I haven't really had time to play this game properly and admittedly spent way too much time reading up on different animes trying to figure out the theme. I hate most animes so thanks for that Nabe.

I should have plenty of time tomorrow to post, but a few things:

1) I disagree strongly with a No Lynch. No Lynching results in a 0% success rate for town. Lynching gives us the potential at hitting mafia or independent. Like it or not, Town will die throughout this game via lynch and night kills. Us lynching one on D1 is not helpful for town, but it isn't a guaranteed lynch of a townie even if we don't have concrete information. To not lynch someone means that we miss a chance to lynch scum that we do not get back.

There are times when No Lynch is acceptable, but they are always mathematical. We don't know the ratio of town to scum, how many people will die during the night, or any of the other variables so we cannot make any progress on a No Lynch. While it might feel like progress to start the Day anew with everyone knowing their full role, I have to point out that this is how Day One normally starts, and in this case it will be Day Two with at least one townie dead.

Someone not knowing their alignment doesn't change that and, more importantly, we have no way of knowing who doesn't know their alignment for real toDay. It's very easy to lie about that and say "already used my guess". I don't suggest random lynching, but lynching a role that has been dodgy, inactive, absent, illogical, or unhelpful in some other way is a far superior way to go. It's always been that way and this game is no different.

2) I am skeptical of Rajam's statements so far. Not overly so, but I'd like more info. One thing that makes my hair stand on edge is that Rajam comes in talking about La B like he is another hep alien as if it hasn't been mentioned. While this is possible I find 1/18 mentioning this in Rajam's pregame and then the replacement immediately thinking the same thing with their first post highly unlikely as a legitimate post. It seems to me that Rajam either did read and presented it as his own statement, or had unique information that he was unaware we had discussed and was now bringing it to the table. Like I said before, unique information comes to mafia and independents so I am watching closely for information leaks. If Rajam flipped something non-town, I'd look closely at Chuckie.

I am also curious about Rajam's guesses. I'm not inclined to ask people what they guess or what layer they are on, but I am intrigued by what Rajam claims Tako guessed. He guessed he was town on 0, and got "true". He guessed that the theme was Jump Mafia on 0 or 1 and got false. His guess is spent for D1, so I would assume 1. This leaves a big gaping hole in that he should have had another guess on 0. Maybe I missed it.



Soup, I'm very interested in your slot as you have seemingly taken charge in absence of anyone else at the end of the day. In this you have cast suspicion on Chuckie and Raziek in a lighter manner, more seriously (but still just a gut read) on Kantrip yet are pushing for a No Lynch.

I am curious about a lot of variables in that, but here's my big question to you at the moment:

If you have a gut read on Kantrip scum and this is something worth mentioning to town, why would you go for a No Lynch instead of just stating outright that you would prefer Kantrip lynched over anyone else?

I am curious as to how this would help town or fit into your own mindset at this stage of the game.

OS, the idea of Le Bateleur being a "HepAlien" sort of player came to mind because I was checking the roster and realized he was the only player I never heard of previously, and then in the 1st page his 1st post was:

Hi every-one!! I am SO excited to play online mafia! Thanks Nabe for inviting me!

Is every-one super excited? ^__^ I hope I get to be Santa, ha-ha.

That part reminded me a lot of HepAlien because he said the same thing HepAlien said when she introduced herself in Super Heroes: that she was invited by the mod. That, plus both games being private too, made me think of the possibility.

 

[Kantrip]

Oh Rajam. My comment towards soup was nonchalant and in jest and should give no indication as to what alignment I think he is. Nor was I trying to set a "trap", though obviously I can't prove that. I haven't been giving mafia the attention it deserves because life is 50 shades of cray for me right now, so I honestly don't have a single confident read in this game. When I said I don't like soup's reads, I meant just that. I'm not calling it scum off of it because I haven't sat down to contrast it to anything or think about whether it's scummy in motivation. That was simple a surface level comment of "I don't like this, soup." The comment about him reading me, on the other hand, was meant to be more light-hearted because I find him scumreading me every game amusing.

 

[Jdietz43]

I'm guessing you don't know your alignment yet? (or at least by the moment when you made that post); could you try guessing it toDay?

Also, question: Is everyone already aware of his own alignment?

Just read this and died.

(catching up atm)

 

[Jdietz43]

Soup's guide to getting your real role 2nd edition

The present system is a 5-step process to obtain your real role. The system is as follows:
Layer 1: Alignment.
Layer 2: Anime character
Layer 3: Tarot Card
Layer 4: Voice Actor
Layer 5: Real role.

You can easily skip to layer 3 by following these steps. If you are successful then you should be able to get to your real role as long as you keep guessing correctly, you should be able to get to your real role very easily by following this cool guide I made. You can skip everything after step one if you still have your theme guess.

Step One:
If you have a guess on the theme, Guess Persona 3 +4 Mafia. That should get you your real role.

a. If you do NOT have your guess, proceed to the following steps. I can't help you any further if you used up your present guess at this point.

Step Two:
If you have a guess on your present layer, go ahead and guess that your third layer will be a tarot card. It doesn't need to be specific.

Step Three:
Nabe should confirm your guess to be correct. Follow your arcana and recite to your second layer. Look up that Anime character's voice actor. Try and find a character from Persona 3 + 4 that corresponds to both. Once you do that, proceed to step four.

Step Four:
PM Nabe again with the information you gained from Step Three. He should send you your real role and you will be able to skip through the Fourth Layer.

Step Five:
Enjoy your real role. No refunds!!!

I know I said this before but it bears repeating: you don't have to do any of that if you don't want to, you're allowed to skip layers if you guess correctly.

If you still haven't gotten your true role and feel impatient just skip straight to guessing that the theme of the game is Persona 3 and Persona 4. Saves everyone time and we can get right to work D2.


I'm sure everyone has already heard this either from my previous posts or someone pointing it out between Soup here and the current thread state, but on the off chance it's flown beneath the radar there it is again. (I would understand if you wanted to take it safe and open it layer by layer though, just in case of shenanigans)

 

[Jdietz43]

FYI. Also if JD does have his alignment I'm leaning town on him. Ranmaru too.

I have my alignment, my present is fully open since I guessed the theme.



I'd still like to hear a better answer as to why you were reluctant before to help me back when I was unsure how this all worked since you seem to agree that people knowing at least their basic alignment information is intrinsic to properly scum-hunting. (aka: why were you ok leaving me in the dark)

Yes I asked that before, yes you answered, but I don't feel it was a satisfactory one.

 

[Jdietz43]

There are times when No Lynch is acceptable, but they are always mathematical. We don't know the ratio of town to scum, how many people will die during the night, or any of the other variables so we cannot make any progress on a No Lynch. While it might feel like progress to start the Day anew with everyone knowing their full role, I have to point out that this is how Day One normally starts, and in this case it will be Day Two with at least one townie dead.

Someone not knowing their alignment doesn't change that and, more importantly, we have no way of knowing who doesn't know their alignment for real toDay. It's very easy to lie about that and say "already used my guess". I don't suggest random lynching, but lynching a role that has been dodgy, inactive, absent, illogical, or unhelpful in some other way is a far superior way to go. It's always been that way and this game is no different.

2) I am skeptical of Rajam's statements so far. Not overly so, but I'd like more info. One thing that makes my hair stand on edge is that Rajam comes in talking about La B like he is another hep alien as if it hasn't been mentioned. While this is possible I find 1/18 mentioning this in Rajam's pregame and then the replacement immediately thinking the same thing with their first post highly unlikely as a legitimate post. It seems to me that Rajam either did read and presented it as his own statement, or had unique information that he was unaware we had discussed and was now bringing it to the table. Like I said before, unique information comes to mafia and independents so I am watching closely for information leaks. If Rajam flipped something non-town, I'd look closely at Chuckie.

I am also curious about Rajam's guesses. I'm not inclined to ask people what they guess or what layer they are on, but I am intrigued by what Rajam claims Tako guessed. He guessed he was town on 0, and got "true". He guessed that the theme was Jump Mafia on 0 or 1 and got false. His guess is spent for D1, so I would assume 1. This leaves a big gaping hole in that he should have had another guess on 0. Maybe I missed it.

@Underlined: True, and I'd like to state now that everyone should be 100% sure of their role by the time D2 starts now that the theme has been outed. I'm not accepting any excuses if someone fudges their guess up, we need to all be on the same page when D2 gets underway.


I agree I want Rajam dead. The reasons you have are semi-reachy but valid, and I can say they are things that crossed my mind (not wrt Le B, but instead how Tako claimed to know the theme so fast yet refused to out). We may be very wrong on this, but frankly I feel this is the best way to go atm, I'm willing to take the responsibility on a town flip as "that guy who figured out the theme and gave it out". No offense to you Rajam but I remember distinctly in Celebrity how much easier it was to win as as scum with you alive and in a PR...

(Soup on backup choice duty depending on whether he redeems himself in my eyes by responding)

 

[Jdietz43]

scum

Y

10characters

 

[Jdietz43]

Something I don't understand wrt Tako is the fact he lied about the knowing the real theme and had this weird *** plan incorporated with it. I don't understand the incentive to lie about it in the first place unless he was trying to scumhunt mechanically, as I feel he could have done it to garner reactions. I know Tako has done this before as both alignments, but he never followed up on it either way.

Why did he replace out, anyways?

I'm not sure, but if it's anything like when Rake replaced for Zen in Deadpool it's so much better to have him confirmed as a strange dead townie than an alive scum with a plan that didn't pan out.

 

[Jdietz43]

Just a quick-thought about what OS said in his 153 ~ 154 regarding scum:

If scum started the game with more info (and Nabe in fact confirmed this), for example, already knowing they're scum, then they probably waited a little this D1 to see what the other people's guesses were, to learn about the nature of town guesses. Because of this, I'd say that people who came immediatly into the thread making his guesses public aren't scum. I can't remember specific names now (I'd have to check), but is something important to take into account if it becomes effective that scum already knew they're scum by N0.

@Underlined: I'm glad you feel this way, because that means you'll understand when we kill you because of Tako's stances if you flip town.

Your pushback on OS was p. bad, even if he did read between the lines on Tako's paragraph.

 

[Jdietz43]

ITT: Dietz stream of consciousness-es for a whole page.

@July: How do you feel about the way I outed the theme of the game? Am I town or scum for it?

Would you kindly vote Rajam?

 

[Jdietz43]

To be honest, it will probably depend a fair amount on your flip. I find his early play, specifically his willingness to help other players through early layers of their boxes, to be quite towny. But he later goes on a No Lynch tangent that I don't understand at all. Reading it once, it seems like it's just what he thought would be the townie thing to do given the fact that we haven't really gotten a chance to scumhunt yet since so much of toDay needed to be dedicated to theme dissection. I think it's prudent to be wary of any player who seems too afraid to lynch a townie. Mislynches aren't ideal, but they aren't something to be feared until much later in the game. Seeing Soup wring his hands over it is troubling. That and his back-and-forth with OS looks terrible.

There. I answered your question much better than you answered mine.

Yes. Technically, Nabe informed me of my alignment nearly a week ago, but since I had kind of a freak bout of absence, I didn't actually read it until yesterday. I have since guessed the true theme and now know my whole role.

Soup, why are you concerning yourself so much with Labatt Blue beer? Is this really something that you think should be dealt with now? It looks like you're getting dangerously close to rolefishing.

Circus are you aware that Soup flat rejected to help me when I asked him how he got his guess to work? He wasn't helpful at all, he simply talked about how it would be a pro-town thing to do.

 

[Jdietz43]

Done for now. Sorry for big string of unconnected posts, finally got some free time on my hands to catch up with my mafia games.

 

[Le Bateleur]

Nabe said the person hanging was in a parka after Le Bateleur asked him...

"No, she said they weren't in a parka..."

Le Bateleur, why do you talk in quotations?

(RPing! I'm gonna keep doing it too!)

I think I know who Le Bateleur is.

(I'M MYSELF AND NO-ONE ELSE)

It's not the person who he is, rather the role he has.

"Soup is really fishy... He acts all friendly but then he talks about my role!"

Le Bateleur, could you explain how you feel about the setting of this game? Do you have any guesses on the theme? You have your real role, yes?

(Ahhhh I need an adult!!) "I've never played it but now I'm watching the show which is pretty good! We don't need to guess any-more, like every-one's saying it's Persona 3 and 4!" I look at you like you're dumb...

Dangerously close? That's deliberately what he's doing. The only difference is that La B isn't a real boy.

(OF COURSE NOT, BECAUSE I AM A GIRL......?)

Lol at people thinking we're Le Bateleur. Now if I could just convince myself to hammer Rajam, wii could wrap this day up

"It's no dumber then thinking I'm Nabe!!"

 

[Le Bateleur]

"I think I understand what's going on now!" I step into the center of the room cupping my chin in deep thought...

"I think... the culprit...... IS YOU!!" swinging my finger around at Rajam! "Every-body else thinks its you but the real clue is how you're talking about HipAlien!" *Pheonix Wright music starts playing!*

"Your present isn't fun AT ALL, it's a knife you smuggled in-to the club to kill that scientist!! You wanted us to think you were good but in reality you faked the hanging after stabbing him to death! And you did it because he knew too much..."

"You're talking about alien but not from space... you immigrated from Japan and you're the director of Persona3 and 4! I don't know the name but that's you (or you did the music maybe ^__^; and you didn't want people to know Persona was real...... he proved it with science and it would be his LAST experiment......"

"You couldn't help talking about what you did and now its too late." My grim smile gives you chills as every-one's eyes were on me...


You try to run but we catch you and I've got a hammer and nails for you!! "Justice!"

Last vote: hammer Rajam!

 

[Le Bateleur]

Aww I didn't put a winky face in! .__.

 

[Overswarm]

That vote didn't count, wrong format. -_-;;

 

[Le Bateleur]

[*]Players who cast the final vote in a lynch are strongly encouraged to post the word hammer in various colours and text sizes. Image macros, Youtube links, and/or references to parachute pants are not officially sanctioned, but will be permitted if exceptionally funny.

Nope haha! This time I'm following the rules!!

 

[Le Bateleur]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbGJCT3R154

 

[Le Bateleur]

Who is every-one going to use abilities on at the night phase? I was thinking I would pick Soup

 

[#HBC | Joker]

Who is every-one going to use abilities on at the night phase? I was thinking I would pick Soup

You should definitely not talk about that. The mafia might kill you if they think you have a power, or at least do some kind of roleblock. It's best to keep it to yourself.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Haven't read anything past 400 besides what I already responded to. Just stopping in to say that I won't be catching up today (two quizzes today that I need to study for), which pretty much means that I have nothing left to say toDay. I did see the hammer, and I'm still not terribly convinced in Rajam scum, but I'll be lying if I said I could offer up anything better.

One last thing though, Le is either someone planted in by Nabe, OR someone who Nabe approached specifically BECAUSE of her name (which would make sense). Want to put that out there just because I feel like it hasn't been considered, and this whole "Who is Le really?" thing is starting to run in WIFOM circles (Le's Chuckie? Come'on. )