Twin Christmas Parties 3+4 Mafia {The Matryoshka Scandal.} ~ Over! Who had the merriest Christmas? Who got lumps of coal?

[Chuckie]

I haven't considered this yet. have you?

I had you/Kary/Dietz/Raziek as town tho at the end of D1. possibly Ran. all this momentum on our wagon is making me consider things.

I am wary of ryker as a potential scummie, not so much in connection with Swarm but as someone scummy to me, so I would see him go also.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Raziek

Why? I liked him early game but then his play just dissipated and now he's getting on a wagon because of some silly wall OS wrote. I think you need to explain the coincidence of Le Bateleur posting like that however, and what his role to the game. Was he just a puppet?

 

[Circus]

Yeesh, five minutes into the first real Day of this game and OS already wrote a novel.

Reading.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Rajam [10]: Overswarm, Raziek, Red Ryu, PrivateJoker-Brown, Ranmaru, Jdietz43, Chuckie, Kary, Circus, Le Bateleur

This wagon had scum on it.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Of course, with a useless D1 and players pandering to not know their alignment, If I asked what people gained out of that lynch they would tell me absolutely nothing.

I hate this.

 

[Overswarm]

PS: I'm pissed you think I didn't earn any town points "for this". I'm not sure why you're trying to downplay the fact I'm the most trustworthy slot for outing the theme right now but I don't like the fact you're trying to make that action seem shady.

Everyone was trying to solve the theme, you just had the final step.

From a "I better get town points for this" perspective, coming in after halftime and hitting one goal and winning the game is awesome, but you didn't capitalize on it or even remind people that "hey, it was me!"

You're doing that now, but during my re-read I didn't see anything out there that made me think you were milking it for all it was worth. You just kinda did a good thing for town, and naturally so, and then went on with the Day.

Finding the theme for town IS shady because we all were looking for it and we know that mafia and indies have more information. So by default the people with the most information that can't be readily determined are under suspicion; that's why I was curious about you saying that your friend helped you. I thought it possible you were trying to sweep that aspect of it under the rug.

You're not an entirely distant possibility for suspicion, but Chuckie is farther ahead than the distance of Earth to the Sun.

So off to his posts.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

There was no N0. As the recruiter you are building us up to be, we had to have made an action to recruit Le Bateleur. That or we had to have known Le Bateleur was the one we "recruited" for your logic to sustain itself (because you already established a connection between us on D1, so we had to have known he was in some way connected to us, right?). For this to be true, we would have known our role...

I'm going butt to but in and say that this line of logic is completely voided considering you could have been aligned at the start. I'm not going to go into a Overswarm wall but this doesn't cut the suspicion around you at all. It's very possible for you to have not known your role at the start, but the fact remains is that Overswarm believes you had underlying information, and this doesn't prove that you didn't.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

OS, answer me.
Chuckie, why'd you leave?

 

[Circus]

I am completely ok with this.

Vote: Chuckie

You should participate more than this.

Right Overswarm... "More information than both Mafia AND Town"... this logic was used against sneakytako who flipped Town!

More information is the least reliable tell this game because it is public information to the Town that Scum have this knowledge. To claim or hint at underlying information is to die (this behaviour is what kill sneakytako after all). What would our return be in a gambit of this calibre so early in the game? Plz be explanative here. It isn't a tell that is supported well, as seen with sneaky's flip!

Hoo, boy, you are flailing.

"What are you talking about? We're just like that townie that died! Our situation is exactly like Sneaky's situation!"

Like hell it is. Sneaky played poorly and lied about having more information than he actually had. You, on the other hand, demonstrably seem to have more information than you should. Comparing yourself to Sneaky's slot is impossible.

We explained where our logic in advancing layers came from, confirmed genuine by JTB's role. This is the most important detail that defends us against this dark shade of a logic. Lettuce go into it:

Whoa whoa whoa. Maybe I skimmed D1 even more than I thought, but what is this you're saying about "JTB's role?" Has JTB outed his role?

There was no N0. As the recruiter you are building us up to be, we had to have made an action to recruit Le Bateleur. That or we had to have known Le Bateleur was the one we "recruited" for your logic to sustain itself (because you already established a connection between us on D1, so we had to have known he was in some way connected to us, right?). For this to be true, we would have known our role...

...thus guessing the layers of our present becomes meaningless because it would have been opened, fulfilling Nabe's "independent's know more than mafia who know more than town" rule in the OP...

This is a fair point on it's own, but OS already brought up the idea of town points. You got capital with the town for helping us to figure out the theme. You even go on to admit, in this very post, that this is the case. If you really are an indy, then that's worth plenty.

JTB's ability would have exposed us as lying at this point as a result, which it didn't. It exposed the complete opposite (lol)

Again with JTB's ability. I really must have missed something. Someone clue me in?

Now ask yourself as a scumhunter: why would we go to our lengths in adding Le Bateleur as a friend prior to the game? Why would we out him as significant to the flavour and spotlight him in this manner ON DAY 1? The most important question: did we want to be so obvious as to commit suicide?? Don't bother answering. The answer is no! A good player (let us pray there are a few) should be able to recognise that our effort in dealing with Le Bateleur was not to out ourselves as scum as his inquisitor, rather because we're just smart players with common sense that pieced A to B to C and reached our 3rd layer genuinely (cue JTB to realise our viewpoint and oppose Swarm's logic GOGOGOG).

Bolded for focus.

This question is a double-edged sword. Let me flip it on you. Rather than asking why you would add Labatt as a friend prior to the game as scum, I would ask you why you would bother adding Labatt as a friend as at all if you really were a no-nothing audience here? As someone who knew nothing of the player, why would you friend Labatt? Do you just friend every player you play a mafia game with?

The conclusion you ask me to draw from the bolded is not that you must be town because scum wouldn't be dumb enough to do what you did. The easiest answer to this is that you are, in fact, dumb scum.

Oh, a final note about this: we advanced the layer process of the game which, to quote everyone in the game at the time (Raziek/Soup/Ranny/YOURSELF), "MASSIVELY HELPED TOWN"... for everyone to begin turning against us based on your logic is bad bad bad and would probably be indicative of the decline of the swf meta.

See, here you are, trying to cash in that town capital. Don't act like you weren't trying to earn points.

Oh, btw, potassium may have got vigged.

Scum may have decided to off Le Bateleur in a bid to kill 2 players in one (us), as our linking was introduced on D1.

In fact this is a possibility to consider a) because potassium died first (vigs have priority) and b) Rajam, a town flip, generally regarded as a good reader, had potassium as scum.

this is speculation mind you

@The underlined: How do you know this? That is not established, universal SWF Mafia practice. Also, I would not regard Rajam as a particularly good judge of alignment. Where are you getting that?

@Soup: I understand the desire to turn over every rock before going full HBC on people (although I'm doing my best not to reference another game), but seeing you dismiss OS' case so quickly is unsettling. If you actually read it, I don't see how you could be so quick to deny it. I find it pretty damning. The part about both players posting at the same time is, for me, an especially persuasive detail. I can tell you that I did the exact same thing with HepAlien in Super Heroes in order to try to make sure no one started following that trail. All of the evidence points to Labatt and Chuckie having some kind of relationship. With Labatt's flip, the odds of that relationship being anything positive for town are microscopic.

This wagon had scum on it.

Agreed.

Although you sure are in a convenient spot by not being on it, aren't you, Mr. I'm-so-townie-let's-No-Lynch.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Vote: Raziek

What a mooch. Lame wagon hops this game so far. Fine with being on him with Soup.

I haven't read all of Day 1 (yes I know I had all of last Night, shush), but I will just go on and state some things that have been on my mind. I'll fix myself some breakfast and then continue to read afterwards.

-Chuckie, why I don't buy all of OS's case, I do take issue with your slot, mainly because of how you acted (or how you didn't act) around the Tako slot (and if you did try to interact with the wagon in some way yesterday, I haven't read it yet). I know we already went over this, but it still bugs me. I haven't played with either Kat or vanderzant all that much, but just knowing how smart and insightful both of you are, I feel confident in saying that town Chuckie would play a more active role with the Tako wagon. Even if you truly had a hard time pinning a read to him, you guys didn't really make an effort at all to try to read him. Even when Rajam replaced in, no visible effort was seen on your part to get a read. Instead, you're focus was all on Le and mechanics. It's understandable to be caught up in mechanic talk of Day 1, but it's hard for me to swallow that you guys just let the Tako wagon build up like it did and not say a word about it until I asked for one. Also, your reply to my question about the Tako wagon was pretty safe, since you pretty much just said that "He's playing odd if he was town." Nothing was really committed to in your response (this is a more minor point, since Day was kinda ****ty for reads, plus I didn't even go in as hard on the Tako wagon as I should have [albeit due to inactivity], but it helps to paint a bigger picture for your slot that I'm not really liking).

Also, this may be a bit of a long shot, but I also get the feeling that a town Chuckie would have saw a town Tako like I did.

Another point that I'll like to bring up is that I DO agree with OS that it's suspicious that you unwrapped your present pretty quickly. Yes you are intelligent, as I said above, but not many should be THAT intelligent.

Can you go through your thought process for how you guessed through the layers of your present Chuckie? Also, which way did you lean overall on Tako/Rajam? I'm just looking for a simple "town lean/scum lean" here, nothing else.

One final thing. This is not really a knock against you, but I only give you minimum town points for helping out the theme (this applies to everyone btw). Scum could have TOTALLY helped out with the theme for the "town points." If they were smart, they would, since them sitting on their thumbs while everyone was discussing the theme seems like a bad move to me.

People didn't really take Nabe's advice to "conserve information " to heart. As a result, people revealing their anime/tarot cards seems like a dumb or scum move to me.

Dumb: "Hey scum, here's my anime/tarot card. I don't know what it means yet, but when we do find out the theme, you can use it as a road map to discover my character role.

Scum: "Hey town, here's the anime/tarot card for my safe claim. When the true theme is revealed, you guys can do your homework and find our what townie character I have flavor wise."

Points in favor of you Chuckie include your general activity (this may seem generic, but I do think activity, even from good players like Kat and Vandie, is townie), your wagon built up with too much speed (lotsa sheep this game), and the fact that there is a lot about OS's case that I don't agree with (might go over this later, don't feel like it right now).

-Another slots on my mind right now are Raz, Circus, and RR. RR just because his play has been pretty shallow/light so far.

Raz as stated above. His play has also been light and shallow, plus his wagon hops on both Tako and Chuckie have been incredibly sheepish. Yes I just stated suspicion of Chuckie above, but he hasn't really gone out of the way to justify the reasons for his votes. Anti town at best.

Circus because his 189 and the inactivity that assured rubbed me the wrong way. I won't hold him too accountable for RL issues, because God I know about that, but the last thing he said for a long while was pretty generic (gotta get through that first layer first to scum hunt!). His jump onto the Rajam/Tako wagon also didn't earn him any town points from me.

Also, J's slot annoys me right now. I don't think he's scum or anything, he's null, but the fact that the true theme has been revealed means that everyone has guessed it, and that means that J must have read the thread to some extent to know what the true theme is. Yet, he's been completely inactive since the game has started. I know that he's busy with RL stuff, and that he has been inactive before in Necromafia as town due to his IRL stuff, so I just wish he would replace out already before it gets too late. He knew that he couldn't keep up with this game before it even began, so he should have exercised some restraint in joining.

-One final thought, that being that I agree with OS that we are most likely dealing with 6 anti-town players. My guess is 4 mafia and 2 indies that are aligned (the Inquisitors).

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

WOW that ninja. Just after I got done laying suspicion down on Circus.

 

[Overswarm]

STOP VOTING US!

Omg the laziness of people in realising a wall is just a wall and not representative of the content behind the wall is astounding!

Right Overswarm... "More information than both Mafia AND Town"... this logic was used against sneakytako who flipped Town!

And does anyone here think that was an incorrect move? You yourself were on that wagon, as was the majority of town. It wasn't even a last-minute panic wagon. Soup could say "rabble rabble bad wagon" because he openly pushed for a No Lynch over a Tako lynch but you certainly can't.

Information leak is the most reliable tell in this game by far.

More information is the least reliable tell this game because it is public information to the Town that Scum have this knowledge. To claim or hint at underlying information is to die (this behaviour is what kill sneakytako after all). What would our return be in a gambit of this calibre so early in the game? Plz be explanative here. It isn't a tell that is supported well, as seen with sneaky's flip!

What would be the return? You set it up so La B wouldn't be lynched and you made La B a prominent figure in the game rather than just a random inactive. The entire process you used was in support of your slot and making it seem more town.

What you are trying to do instead is punish us for being smart in advancing our present's layer (take note how we advanced nothing about the flavour of the game as if we had underlying information here..., all we did was tell people how to reach the 3rd layer of their present, of which there were 2 more layers to guess)...

You clearly had more information and it was clearly all centered around La B. You were La B.

And take note that you only told people how to reach the 3rd layer? Of course I did. I never said you'd have all the information, only that you would have more. Why the assumption?

Look at the information you claimed to have at the start of the game:

Tarot cards = 3rd layer
La B's name translated means "The Magician"
Hanged man = tarot card theme

If you were La B, and you were, the special information you would get would be centered around that fact. All evidence shows that you knew absolutely everything up to that point and no further.

You didn't know about the voice actors, you didn't know about persona. You only knew about Le Bateleur and everything associated with that account. That was your special information, and that's what you knew more than anyone else.

We explained where our logic in advancing layers came from, confirmed genuine by JTB's role. This is the most important detail that defends us against this dark shade of a logic. Lettuce go into it:

What exactly do you mean here? I just looked at JTB's posts and he didn't out his role. Are you talking about his present opening strategy? This only confirms what I was stating before: your special information was all about La B.

Hell, it could have been backwards. You could have just started at layer 3 of your gift as your special information, saw tarot cards, and worked your way backwards from there and taken special note of the player you controlled.

There was no N0. As the recruiter you are building us up to be, we had to have made an action to recruit Le Bateleur. That or we had to have known Le Bateleur was the one we "recruited" for your logic to sustain itself (because you already established a connection between us on D1, so we had to have known he was in some way connected to us, right?). For this to be true, we would have known our role...

What? WHAT?

You were Le Bateleur to begin with.

This isn't a get-out-of-jail free card for you, this is you conveniently spinning what you know against what town SHOULD know. The fact that I figured out that you and La B were the same person makes it fall apart.

You didn't need to know your role to recruit Le Bateleur, you had La B to begin with. This defense holds no water.

...thus guessing the layers of our present becomes meaningless because it would have been opened, fulfilling Nabe's "independent's know more than mafia who know more than town" rule in the OP...

JTB's ability would have exposed us as lying at this point as a result, which it didn't. It exposed the complete opposite (lol)

Nice strawman. "I didn't know more information! That'd mean I knew my whole role and I didn't!"

The information you had was centered around Le B and that role only. The pieces fit.

Additionally, the way you described our handling of Le Bateleur is distorting the reality of the situation that should be making you look bad. We didn't "just" immediately think of arcana tarot cards at all, In fact we gave a very lengthy explanation that detailed our thought process that you said "Good Work Chuckie...", something you are disingenuously shunning now. You didn't explain where we just assumed things in our post about Le Bateleur (you can't...)

I did think it was good work, it was incredibly impressive sleuthing work. Too impressive. That's where part of the initial suspicion came from, remember?

Now ask yourself as a scumhunter: why would we go to our lengths in adding Le Bateleur as a friend prior to the game? Why would we out him as significant to the flavour and spotlight him in this manner ON DAY 1? The most important question: did we want to be so obvious as to commit suicide?? Don't bother answering. The answer is no! A good player (let us pray there are a few) should be able to recognise that our effort in dealing with Le Bateleur was not to out ourselves as scum as his inquisitor, rather because we're just smart players with common sense that pieced A to B to C and reached our 3rd layer genuinely (cue JTB to realise our viewpoint and oppose Swarm's logic GOGOGOG).

I don't know La B's role entirely or what that role's purpose was. Hey, maybe we're lucky and that role could do the recruiting for you so you couldn't be watched of roleblocked or something. Couldn't tell you for certain, I don't know what an "aspect" is in mafia. But I know you had no problem using the role to inflate your own town status.

Oh, a final note about this: we advanced the layer process of the game which, to quote everyone in the game at the time (Raziek/Soup/Ranny/YOURSELF), "MASSIVELY HELPED TOWN"... for everyone to begin turning against us based on your logic is bad bad bad and would probably be indicative of the decline of the swf meta.

Did you just ad hominem the entire site to defend yourself?

Do you honestly think that scum wouldn't try to openly help town advance layers? If you're scum and you have more layers than others and you just openly give them to town, town then has to say "why would he do that?" which gives you town points until they realize "Oh, he did it to earn town points".

I'll paraphrase what I sent to Nabe via PM when we guessed Tarot Cards:

Spoiler

Le Batuleur is naturally suspicious and one of our biggest leads. He appears directly in the middle of the player list, has expressed interest in a newbie game yet never once /inned despite opportunities arising here. He gets selected to a private game and over other newbies at that who would be better qualified at playing a game more smoothly. He looks staged. He has an avatar that references a tarot character, The Magician.

Spoiler

I don't recall the old avatar very well, but wasn't it Luigi?

The "dead guy" was hung, a possible reference to The Hanged Man, a card with fiery connotations if it is placed next to The Sun, The Devil or The Burning Tower, all which relate to fire, i.e. the sample pm's present opening strategy of burning. Additionally, The Hanged Man represents sacrifice and resignation, which we find fitting considering the "dead guy" is the first character to go, thus sacrificing his fate to introduce the opening of this game.

Wii also believe our present opening strategy of patience may relate to the Temperance card. This card seems to represent qualities of patience, and is also depicted as female. An alternative to this is the Strength/Force card which is also depicted as female and exudes some qualities that could be considered patient, though we lean more toward the Temperance card than the Strength one.

Yeah I severely doubt you sent all this to Nabe prior to the game.

sorry this just our defence against such logic shade. I saw it and felt compelled to respond. Whatever questions are targeted at us will be ignored as we want to get our scumhunt on and not be forced into a position of defence

What the hell kind of play is this?

"This case is bull, not answering any questions because that'd put us in a bad position!"

That's just... unhelpful.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Alright, got my oatmeal, time to finish Day 1. I wanta have mafia down today by noon so that I can study.

However, first I'll like to propose a question to everyone suspicious of a Chuckie and Le connection: Why do you guys think that the two interacted so much if they were connected? Do you think that, by interacting with each other, they were trying to distance? If so, then why not just treat each other like they would any other slot? Why set up a connection in just a weird way? It's really hard to imagine the scum thought process that they much have went through for this to be the case.

Chuckie: "Hey Le, you know what would be a really good idea for us to distance? Let me reveal the fact that you are probably a plant put into the game and try to paint you as Nabe!"

Le: "Oh yeah! Good idea! Also, lets talk about totally irrelevant things to! That will throw them off!"

Also, about Chuckie and Le talking about "irrelevant things," that's nothing I wouldn't put pass their nature. Like, I know that Kat is a sociable and kinda kooky person, so his in thread socialization is understandable enough to me.

Now, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that Kat isn't scum, but just that I doubt a connection between him and Le.

"But Swords, they posted at the same time!"

Yeah, whatever, because OS asked them to. I'm not seeing the big deal there.

 

[Circus]

I thought I was going to have all day to play this today, but now I'm spending the day with real life humans. I'll get back to this tonight; I'm sure there will be much more to tackle.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

So Chuckie was on the Rajam wagon. My b. This just means that I have to analyze him and others on the wagon now.

 

[Overswarm]

OS, Let's pretend in another world that Chuckie isn't this indy you suspect him of. What's the game plan after that?

...find the real one, like I said. My current suspicions of alternates, however slight, are JDietz and you, as stated in the initial post I made with the reasoning provided. I haven't delved into those as much because Chuckie's case kept giving me more and more information that fit.

If there's a recruiting serial killer, that's the most detrimental role in the game to town. A town read that was the star all game can suddenly be scum; hard to get around. The faster you kill Lavos, the faster you can kill his spawn.

 

[Overswarm]

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 4 (4 members and 0 guests) Chuckie, Le Bateleur

Look at that carefully. That is the post he made at the same time as Le B, appearing right after. Convenient on its own, right?

Look closer. CLOSER. With a magnifying glass.


Currently active users viewing the thread: 4

4 members.

0 guests.


Chuckie only lists two. Himself and Le Bateleur.


I wonder why Chuckie did that.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

325 which is where Chuckie states suspicion of Tako. This leads up to his vote in 339.

Okay, so I have to concede my point that Chuckie didn't interact with the Tako wagon at all, which is somewhat of a moderate blow to my case against him. I'll continue reading from here (even though I've actually already passed this part, it's good to refresh my memory). However, I suspect that Chuckie probably didn't do much wrt Tako/Rajam, which I'll find out from finishing Day 1. If not, then his lack of interaction with the slot will still somewhat bug me.

 

[#HBC | Kary]

Soup, who do you want to go for toDay?

I feel like one of Chuckie/OS should go toDay. I know OS always thinks he has a masterplan as either alignment, but while I agree with his numbers, I don't like the leap straight to Chuckie. On the other hand, I can't help reading Chuckie's reaction and seeing nothing but flail.

Vote: Chuckie for now

Swords what do you think of July?

Ran what do you think of soup/Ditzy/Joker?

gotta run. should be back on tomorrow.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

@Circus

I never denied it.

 

[Overswarm]

-One final thought, that being that I agree with OS that we are most likely dealing with 6 anti-town players. My guess is 4 mafia and 2 indies that are aligned (the Inquisitors).

Do you think that La B was one of them?

This helps get rid of Chuckie's "I would need to know my role" defense as well. The game started with 6 scummers and it is incredibly unlikely that La B of all roles would be recruited as a seventh on n0 anyway, regardless of knowing the role or not.

The christmas tree piles pretty much prove that La B was a scum role to begin with, La B hammering a player pretty much proves it was under the control of a player and not the mod.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Soup, who do you want to go for toDay?

I'm not certain. I believe Chuckie is a fine pick for today but I want more out of it before everyone just hops on. I have a feeling that he will be the lynch regardless of what I say, kind of like how Rajam got the lynch as I predicted.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Not because I asked them to, not the first time. That was the second. The first time they did it it was not only accidental, but it was at the beginning of a string of their posts. Conveniently, the second post was Chuckie openly mentioning that Chuckie and La B were both viewing the thread simultaneously.

How is that not fishy to you?




To further iterate my point:

I had narrowed La B down to Chuckie or Nabe as my best guesses on Day 1.

Then La B hammered Tako.

What self-respecting mod would put himself in a game, obviously play this coy role, and then hammer a player in the game? This role WAS NOT NABE and HAD TO BE CONTROLLED BY A PLAYER IN THIS GAME.

That player is obviously Chuckie. This is painstakingly clear.

Do you think another player would

A) randomly post at the same time as Chuckie just as Chuckie is calling him out for viewing the thread at the same time as Chuckie

B) Have consistent conversations with Chuckie and Chuckie only

C) Post at the same time as Chuckie given my request to help solidify that Chuckie and La B were different players



I mean come on. Chuckie is obviously attempting to distance himself from this slot and was playing the slot to improve his standing in the town.

A) I will give you that it is pretty weird that he did ALWAYS seem to be on at the same time as Chuckie. However, that's just from my memory, I trust that you've done your own research since you read the thread three times over, but I like to do my own just to confirm.

B) No, not really. Le didn't JUST have conversations with Chuckie, he also read through the thread and commented on other players. Plus, as I said above, his constant chattering could totally just be the result of Chuckie (and from it seems, Le's) social nature.

C) Nothing that I'll put past happenstance. How long did you give them to post? Were they both on at the same time when you asked them to post?

OS, could you please answer my above ost as to why scum would want to distance like that?

Look at that carefully. That is the post he made at the same time as Le B, appearing right after. Convenient on its own, right?

Look closer. CLOSER. With a magnifying glass.


Currently active users viewing the thread: 4

4 members.

0 guests.


Chuckie only lists two. Himself and Le Bateleur.


I wonder why Chuckie did that.

Invisible users methinks.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

...find the real one, like I said. My current suspicions of alternates, however slight, are JDietz and you, as stated in the initial post I made with the reasoning provided. I haven't delved into those as much because Chuckie's case kept giving me more and more information that fit.

If there's a recruiting serial killer, that's the most detrimental role in the game to town. A town read that was the star all game can suddenly be scum; hard to get around. The faster you kill Lavos, the faster you can kill his spawn.

What I'm trying to get out of you is not what happens next, it's what happens next regarding what has already been put out on Chuckie. Does the puppeteer theory crumble, or do you pin another player? Your certainty and logic is credible, but all I want to know is the 'what if.'

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Could you see Chuckie as part of the mafia? Could there be multiple factions, or perhaps, two mafia factions?

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

I'm glad Sword is town this game.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

I want to like Circus, and I want to like his wall. I can't shake the feeling of something more there however.

Everyone give me an insight on if they have someone they want to lead on today, based on yesterday. Should we throw everything that happened prior out of the window? This question is completely rhetorical and I don't want to see this day end quite yet.

 

[#HBC | J]

Heya, well I am finally back from V/LA (till wednesday, then I go back till sunday) but I am going to use this time to catch up and get back in the game.

Thank you to whomever gave that thing in order to get your flavour. It saved me the trouble of giving in dumb flavour things till D3 like in the first one.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

@Kary: A bit inactive, but she's fine otherwise. Her posts so far reveal an analytical July that fits her town play. She needs to go over more material for me to make a stronger call, but a town lean so far.

Do you think that La B was one of them?

This helps get rid of Chuckie's "I would need to know my role" defense as well. The game started with 6 scummers and it is incredibly unlikely that La B of all roles would be recruited as a seventh on n0 anyway, regardless of knowing the role or not.

The christmas tree piles pretty much prove that La B was a scum role to begin with, La B hammering a player pretty much proves it was under the control of a player and not the mod.

This is pure speculation, but I believe that the indie probably got to recruit Night 0. This is due to the facts that indies get more information than anyone else, and the fact that, after doing research on Le's character, I found that there was nothing initially evil about her. No where does it mention that anything about her becoming a "shadow," or whatever the indie is, in the main story. We also know that Le couldn't have been recruited Night 1, since he died that Night. The only way that I could think that he was recruited Night 1 is if the indie's kill failed on him, but another kill did not for whatever reason, which just seems plain unlikely to me.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

This is pure speculation, but I believe that the indie probably got to recruit Night 0. This is due to the facts that indies get more information than anyone else, and the fact that, after doing research on Le's character, I found that there was nothing initially evil about her. No where does it mention that anything about her becoming a "shadow," or whatever the indie is, in the main story. We also know that Le couldn't have been recruited Night 1, since he died that Night. The only way that I could think that he was recruited Night 1 is if the indie's kill failed on him, but another kill did not for whatever reason, which just seems plain unlikely to me.

Btw, if anyone who has played Persona before wants to contradict me on this, feel free.

 

[Overswarm]

What I'm trying to get out of you is not what happens next, it's what happens next regarding what has already been put out on Chuckie. Does the puppeteer theory crumble, or do you pin another player? Your certainty and logic is credible, but all I want to know is the 'what if.'

La B was obviously a puppet role. The only question to ask is who was controlling it. There are dozens of neon signs pointing to Chuckie. While the possibility exists that the stars simply aligned in a way to make it look like this but not be him, the chances are so far removed from coincidence they aren't worth considering deeply.

I would still pursue the puppeteer theory unless someone had another credible idea. I can't think of another fair way the game could be approached from a mod standpoint and the proof seems to be in the pudding with this game.

This is not a lighthearted case, Soup. I didn't just pull evidence out of the air. While you and JDietz were contenders you were the glass joes to Chuckie's Mr. Dream, to use a Punch-Out!! analogy. I wouldn't immediately pursue one of you two if Chuckie didn't flip as the inquisitor and it would require yet another serious re-read and we'd have to do what we could to find the inquisitor again.

On further reflection, I'd probably pick someone (or a few someones) I didn't think was the inquisitor very strongly and see what who they thought the inquisitor was and try to pursue it from a more PoE aspect rather than a "who has evidence against them" aspect. Comparing the three Day phases (1, 2, and the new 3) and the pre-knowing and post-knowing that there was an inquisitor could be telling as well, but I think I'd want to approach it from a different angle at that point because come on.

If Chuckie doesn't flip inquisitor I will eat my hat. My case on him is freaking gold.

Could you see Chuckie as part of the mafia? Could there be multiple factions, or perhaps, two mafia factions?

No. 12 and 6. 12 town, 6 anti-town.

What is La b? Obvously anti-town, she flipped anti-town.

5 anti-town left.

What, 3 mafia and 2 mafia?

Even still, 3 mafia and 3 mafia under one tree and.... what? An inquisitor and La B and 10 townies he can recruit underneath it?

Unlikely. Simply from numbers alone that's silly.

 

[#HBC | J]

I feel I should only read from D2 since it is the techincal "D1" but the actual D1 may hold something.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

I'm glad Sword is town this game.

"Soup used buddying!"
"It was super effective!"
<3

I want to like Circus, and I want to like his wall. I can't shake the feeling of something more there however.

Everyone give me an insight on if they have someone they want to lead on today, based on yesterday. Should we throw everything that happened prior out of the window? This question is completely rhetorical and I don't want to see this day end quite yet.

Actually, both my brain and my heart were in contradiction after I read Circus's post. My brain said: "Some of these points, like 'Boy, Chuckie is frailing!' are generic, but I find that I agree with him more than I don't."

Which my heart responded: "But! This is weird from Circus, is it not? His general demeanor seems a bit off, a bit too mean. I've seen Circus swear before, but he just doesn't seem the type to be mean about it. It seems forced."

Also wish Circus stayed a bit longer to respond to other things. RL stuff, yeah, but it still would have helped.

However, Soup, I will say this. Early on around the early 400s OS said something along the lines of you playing the gray lines. I kinda see that here. Don't just say "I wanta like Circus, BUT . . ." *drops point.* Say WHAT'S bothering you about Circus, don't just leave it half-baked.

---

OMG J CHANGE YOUR AVATAR. That's just a ****ing ugly character design of Clover, my God. They took her and made her into a ****/hooker wantabe. Do not appreciate Japan.

 

[Raziek]

You should probably play VLR before you complain about that, Sword. I hear it's pretty amazing.

I don't really see why I need to give my own wall of reasoning on Chuckie here when OS makes a ton of strong points.

Chuckie set off obvious alarm bells as the first person to get significantly into their present, and when Soup and I were discussing the flavor in the opening posts of the game, he tried to get us to wait when we were talking about the animes, etc. He claimed directly that he wanted to "see if his information matched", which at that point just read to me like trying to butt his head into the ping-ponging Soup and I were doing for information at that point.

I don't honestly know how Chuckie can try to explain away the same-time post as La B, and La B was VERY clearly a puppet slot, no questions to be had there whatsoever.

One thing that DID bother me that I want to know if anyone else thought was strange. La B's posts typically didn't contain much content, but there were at LEAST a few that directly called out my aggressive attitude towards tako/others for no seemingly discernible reason. What motivation does a puppet slot have to do that? It's an easy way to discretely make people look at me if they never figure it out. And who comes in hard on me? Soup. Bleeeeeeh. I still think La B was Chuckie, but I'm making a note of that.

There are times to fight a wagon, and there are times to realize OS has a solid case, Chuckie is flailing, and OS isn't going to let the flow of the day go anywhere but a Chuckie lynch.

I don't see a reason to move my vote right now.

 

[Overswarm]

A) I will give you that it is pretty weird that he did ALWAYS seem to be on at the same time as Chuckie. However, that's just from my memory, I trust that you've done your own research since you read the thread three times over, but I like to do my own just to confirm.

B) No, not really. Le didn't JUST have conversations with Chuckie, he also read through the thread and commented on other players. Plus, as I said above, his constant chattering could totally just be the result of Chuckie (and from it seems, Le's) social nature.

C) Nothing that I'll put past happenstance. How long did you give them to post? Were they both on at the same time when you asked them to post?

OS, could you please answer my above ost as to why scum would want to distance like that?

You do your own research and come to your own conclusion. You'll come to the same one I did.

However, first I'll like to propose a question to everyone suspicious of a Chuckie and Le connection: Why do you guys think that the two interacted so much if they were connected? Do you think that, by interacting with each other, they were trying to distance? If so, then why not just treat each other like they would any other slot? Why set up a connection in just a weird way? It's really hard to imagine the scum thought process that they much have went through for this to be the case.

This one?

Because it was convenient for them to do so. La B was presented as an information machine (suggested by Chuckie), didn't press anyone seriously, was no threat to town or scum, and through La B Chuckie was able to get town points by revealing the theme.

If Chuckie wanted to gain town points with his unique information granting him up to layer 3, he had to call out La B to do it. Given that I already did the Hep Alien thing, Circus controlled that slot (and is in this game), and Nabe was in that game (partnered with Circus), I'd wager anyone that knew their history would not consider the slot to be too explicitly powerful.

I'd wager Chuckie didn't expect it to die and out him like this so quickly. When would we have lynched La B and not gotten someone like Soup saying "that is a stupid lynch, what do we learn" and being right? Chuckie made it obvious that La B was a lemon but did so by making himself seem more town.

He wasn't playing the short game, he was playing the long one. He got caught early.



Of course, I could be wrong. I'm working with limited information and estimated guesses and I can't be expected to know someone's mentality to the umpteenth degree. So wat do?



Well, La B was still someone. Given the evidence shown on Day 1, Chuckie is far and away the strongest contender given the evidence. You might be able to explain away one piece as coincidence or maybe another isn't as important to you, but when you put them all together it is hard to ignore and there certainly isn't a stronger option.

Invisible users methinks.

Possible. No evidence either way, but the fact it was posted in the first place still is a huge red flag. People say "I know you're reading player X!" and things but how often do people literally copy the people viewing? It reeks to high heaven.

 

[Overswarm]

I feel I should only read from D2 since it is the techincal "D1" but the actual D1 may hold something.

You're kidding, right?

 

[Overswarm]

Sworddancer, you suggested the possibility there was a N0 recruit and that recruit was La B.

If that's the case, who in their right ****ing mind would do that?

More importantly, if the recruiting role is an Inquisitor as suggested by La B's flip then how did La B survive the killing attempt? Unless La B was bulletproof that role would have been killed N0.

More importantly:

To confirm the receipt of your role PM, please send me a Guess for Night 0 i.e. the confirmation phase. If you manage to open your Present entirely, and your role applies to Night 0, you may use it. Night 0 is a phase of this game. No night kill will take place during Night 0. - Nabe

The inquisitor couldn't have used his role on N0 at all because it is a killing role, unless Nabe's rule specifically meant that people could attempt to kill but the kill wouldn't go through. If that's the case the arrow would fly more towards JDietz, but still. Think about it.... who would recruit La B? I mean why La B.

 

[#HBC | J]

Okay so I am fully read up. Goodness Swords, you really want me out of this game it seems based on the wanting me to replace out at every chance. I'm inactive but I am going to try and play this game due to Nabe's invite and wanting to have a reconciliation for myself due to my play in the first Nabe Party game.

Now when reading through D1, besides all the obvi stuff regarding Tako/Le B, there was something I found that made me think of something I had skimmed from toDay which made me scratch my head. This post came after Soup had figured out his role (from what I could figure at the time the post was made) and it was almost copy-pasted later on when regarding another read of his.

I want to like Raziek but something is holding me back for the moment. I don't feel it's a slot i'd kill at all right now and that's the same feeling I get from Chuckie too. I don't believe anyone deserves to get lynched today based on my own reasoning and the logic backed behind it.

I want to like Circus, and I want to like his wall. I can't shake the feeling of something more there however.

Everyone give me an insight on if they have someone they want to lead on today, based on yesterday. Should we throw everything that happened prior out of the window? This question is completely rhetorical and I don't want to see this day end quite yet.

Here's what I mean. Soup has been non-commital with certain reads this game and leaving the backdoor of other players. He says that he "wants" to like certain people but doesn't. Yet he doesn't want to lynch them either.

He doesn't even give much reason for the way he dislikes people either when talking about those who "give him weird vibes". He also did this to Kantrip yesterDay as well by saying his main tell on him was purely gut which didn't make sense either. He didn't even try to explain himself more.

Soup, to me, is not reading genuine thus far in the game and is giving me varied mixed vibes on things. Some of his posts I have liked but then when I went back to look at them, they weren't really indicitive of alignment but more just him stating facts about the set-up and...yeah not much else. However, that's not really a fair point since it can be attributed to other players as well. I guess what I am trying to say is that it doesn't give Soup any town points (nor anyone else for that matter) on how they reacted during the layer conversation till after people claimed to have their real role. That's where I feel a good lead for others may be.

Soup just catches my eye because he is beginning to repeat himself and leave himself with options to go and not explaining things. He even does so with his town reads like his buddying for Swords which makes me wonder:

@Swords: What makes you like Soup? The reason I am assuming this is because you accepted his buddying and you agree with his Raziek push which was just him voting him and saying that he needed to explain his vote. The other Raziek voters (yourself mainly) have given more of a reason to suspect him then Soup. What do you make of his dismissal of OS' case which Circus pointed out?

There are other posts of Soup's which bug me like this one.

This wagon had scum on it.

This is a really obvious thing to say because of course there would be scum on a wagon...when is there not scum on a wagon on most D1s? Tako/Rajam's lynch was a freebie for scum to just hop on purely because anyone could get on it and not have any blood on their own hands. The people who I want to look at are the people who had hesitancy towards the Tako/Rajam wagon.

Which leads me back to Soup. A quote from Circus to help me explain this one:

I feel like one of Chuckie/OS should go toDay. I know OS always thinks he has a masterplan as either alignment, but while I agree with his numbers, I don't like the leap straight to Chuckie. On the other hand, I can't help reading Chuckie's reaction and seeing nothing but flail.

Vote: Chuckie

If I cannot get who I want toDay, one of Chuckie/OS going is a great plan to me because of the fact that both slots already within the past page have walls of information between the two of them and it seems both are at each others jugulars to want the other. The person who I am leaning towards getting rid of is Chuckie because after reading OS' post, I have more of a town-lean on him then Chuckie and I agree to the notion that Chuckie's defense is more of a flail then an actual counter argument. What I really want from Chuckie is more of a reason as to why their vote is on OS. They have tried to rebuttal what OS has brought but they haven't really tried convincing others to go their way which I find strange from Chuckie. A point I agree to majorly is that if there is an indie in this game, I am reading Chuckie as the most likely candidate especially if it has something to do with Le B's flip and connections through yesterDay's play.

Continuing on from where I left off before that segment from Kary: Soup does not target OS at all. Instead he shifts the blame to the bandwagoners who have joined OS and attacks them (mainly Raziek for a reason that has not been brought to light.) Soup needs to give more of an analysis on why Raziek. What separates him from the other bandwagoners? Soup looks like he is giving a cop-out in who is targetting because I am seeing it as ridiculously easy for him to just call out the bandwagoners instead of attacking the head of the beast. Instead Soup does what Sword's points out here:

However, Soup, I will say this. Early on around the early 400s OS said something along the lines of you playing the gray lines. I kinda see that here. Don't just say "I wanta like Circus, BUT . . ." *drops point.* Say WHAT'S bothering you about Circus, don't just leave it half-baked.

Which is true, most of Soup's actions thus far have been "half-baked" as the expression he uses and it seems like he is being careful on stepping on toes too hard for this early in the game.

In the end, my biggest scum-read is Soup with those who have been here so far with Chuckie coming in as my second scum-read.

Vote: Soup
FoS: Chuckie

========

You're kidding, right?

Kind of recanted my statement due to my post since I did find something but I still maintain that I originally thought it was going to be a crapshoot because I didn't feel I would gain anything without anyone knowing their alignment.

 

[BRB Not Posting.]

A LOT of words have been posted today and I haven't caught any of it.

Xiivi got back to me and we've got our hydra shenanigans straightened out. Gova is more current than I am, but I'm reading this game today.

Lynch me if I'm not at least halfway caught up. Lynch me if I'm not completely caught up tomorrow.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Ryker is replaced by BRB, Not Posting.!